Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I hope you enjoyed your summer weekend – I  once again spent most of it in the lair implementing a few new improvements and features into Crazy.Ivan (e.g. the messaging cough cough). Frankly, I’m not complaining – I enjoy this doing this stuff and I wouldn’t have it any other way. As the old saying goes: If you love what you do you never work a day in your life.

Pickings are unfortunately a bit slim this morning but on the upside the quality of the setups I found is good. Here’s the 10-year futures contract in an uptrend about to breach its hourly NLBL. I’m thinking continuation trade unless it drops through the 25-hour.

Platinum back at its 25-hour SMA – which it has been observing nicely in recent days. So I’ll be long here with a stop below that rising SMA.

A few more for the subs:


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If you have trouble waking up this morning then here’s a little something that should flush any remaining melatonin out of your system:

Whether or not you like the tune – it does its job ;-)

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Monday, July 22nd, 2013 at 6:31 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Daily Zero has been updated

  • AmazingLarry

    Mole – I’m subscribed to CrazyIvan but am not getting any emails. Are they going out yet?

  • Dyellowflash

    Daily 0 looking neutral-bullish.. Looks like I will keep(hide) my Bear Hat for now ;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They have been but I put it on hold on Wed. last week as there was a problem with the trend change notifications. I’m going to test it for another day on my end and then turn them it again.

  • evilasevildoes

    question…i hear people say dollar yen lower therefore our market lower…is this a new pattern? I thought yen carry trade meant as yen dropped cheaper to borrow to trade..can someone help this dummy out?

  • Dyellowflash

    Hello, is the zero down? I see something very strange on my screen – the candles are there, but there is nothing below for the zero and the ZL…

  • Pervergence

    Still long GC…..day 13 ish

  • AcoBrasil

    I took a shot at shorting Oil today based on Mole’s Friday chart analysis. I like the setup so far.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Aah – slowly they trickle in… :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just reload the page – sometimes you catch it in the middle of the image transfer…

  • newbfxtrader

    Trade off the hourly. Daily looking bullish a pullback would be a buy.

  • newbfxtrader

    Short the weakling thats making a lower high aka the Nikkei.

  • newbfxtrader

    If it gets above 1360 it could get really interesting….

  • newbfxtrader

    ID on /nkd take the next break to the downside.

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m not sure I understand your point – what is the hourly showing? I am looking at the possibility of a daily shooting star.

    I’m taking a second stab at the $RUT also. We could be setting up for a double inside day there.

  • AmazingLarry

    I see. Looking fwd to it.

  • newbfxtrader

    Meaning any trades shorting crude should be a short term trade. For me thats hourly or lower time framed. Daily looks too bullish. 110 is an easy target of this breakout. Look up a weekly to see that target.

  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks.

  • AmazingLarry

    Word. Have to take back that 6/20 bear trap candle.

    DCOT shows record shorts in managed money. Lets see how much of a vice grip on the nuts they can take.

  • newbfxtrader

    Np. Please try to change the way you think. I have been there too many times. Yes the Russell could be topping but you have no proof of that. Short the weaker market thats making a lower high like the Nikkei than the market thats showing strength like crude or Russell. Dont fight the markets.

  • newbfxtrader

    Hehe yes!

  • newbfxtrader

    If you trade off the daily your plan should be to go long crude on a pullback until you prove yourself wrong and then start shorting not the other way around. This way you will stop losing money like I have done hundreds of times!

  • Dyellowflash

    works now! thanks for the info!

  • newbfxtrader

    For FX short usd/jpy or eur/jpy and so on these pairs are making lower highs as the markets are making new highs.

  • AcoBrasil

    So what kind of pullback would you be looking for on $WTIC and $RUT? What would trigger a buy point?

    Also, why are you shorting Japan. Why do you think its making a lower high that has topped now?

  • BobbyLow

    NB,

    I’m not so sure on that one. I understand oil has been on a tear and we agree on buying strength and selling weakness. However, there still is a high of 108.82 that needs to be taken out for oil to continue higher. I’ve been long oil but will reverse in a heartbeat at a solid reversal signal.

    Or as the Fly said to the mirror “that’s another way of looking at it”. :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Many ways to skin a cat eh? I just want him to stop trying to pick tops. I have done it so many times its not worth the aggravation.

  • newbfxtrader

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jlcy0pej4-o

    I would recommend using some sort of donchian channel based strategy to buy breakouts. But use whichever indicator you like and are comfortable with. Yes the Nikkei looks like making a lower high with broad markets making higher highs. Thats your divergence. Now I wait for a inside day breakdown.

  • AcoBrasil

    Thx. I like to factor in sentiment indicators (very bullish right now), and look at POMO calendars on a regular basis. I also like to use gaps and some trendlines. I also try to incorporate a broad view of international, bond, FX, and commodity markets to determine possible direction shifts.

    BTW, I appreciate the concern and understand your point about following the trend, but these shorts are essentially a 15% hedge to a 60% long portfolio. I’m going to see how things go before deciding on a sell point. Its good to be flexible with shorts.

  • newbfxtrader

    Ah ok. I have been wrong so many times trying o pick tops its ridiculous.

  • AcoBrasil

    I hear that.

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely.

    And that’s why there should be rules in place that have been both back and forward tested. These rules should fit an individuals time frame and personality while having a positive expectancy. As I said the other day, there are always stuff tempting me to stray from my rules. And when I stray, I usually screw myself. :)

  • newbfxtrader

    http://jonboorman.com/review-of-open-positions-futures-23/

    Heres another method. Doesnt matter which method as long as you have some rules.

  • ridingwaves

    SI broke thru some resistance there..could go up to 21.38 pretty quick, horn sloped temp. bottom..long red candle on daily June 19th could be target..ABX treating me good…

  • newbfxtrader

    Haha yes. I am sure skynard is shaking his head now. Whats this daily charts you talk about he is probably thinking!

  • AcoBrasil
  • evilasevildoes

    question…i hear people say dollar yen lower therefore our market lower…is this a new pattern? I thought yen carry trade meant as yen dropped cheaper to borrow to trade..can someone help this dummy out?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if you can’t figure it out, maybe you should try other opportunities. ;-)
    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp

  • evilasevildoes

    thx Darth…from what i saw with the Bass squeeze on yen and the cl futes there was a nice arb on the bonds for the feds and cb’s

    not sure if the trend is reversing or not

  • evilasevildoes

    i understand the carry trade i was wondering if there was a different instrument moving into the arb plays

  • newbfxtrader

    Hmm I think Scott like the BB ride. That should do.

  • evilasevildoes

    for example ief vs spx

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh.. way above my pay grade, how much coffee have you had? ;-)

  • evilasevildoes

    lol

    as a matter of fact you have a great point
    trading the crack spread

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Spoos Tee Time.
    http://s21.postimg.org/5agjp17v9/Tee22.png

    if you’ve made 130+ SnP points, you are one lucky/fat SOB, IMNSHO.
    but use a trailing stop, the Market can be irrational. ;-)

    -DG

  • SS_JJ

    Same here with G.TO, SSO.To and HL. I usually HATE Mondays, but today the sun shines on my golden balls.

  • amokta

    Can we spx 1700, yes we can!
    Looks like a round number target if nothing else.

  • AmazingLarry

    Can’t see it on my phone, but I’m pretty sure it’s a vol hole rip off the 19.66 springboard.

    Gotta love the pre NY lunch short covering boing. I typically wait till after 10:30 central to move stops.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can sort you out mate. Forget trading correlations – guaranteed way to get burned. They resolve as soon as you rely on them.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yah – sorry about the 60-min AUD/JPY – keeps taking down my Ninja. it’s always been a temperamental beast, uses a large amount of resources.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    All good things are worth waiting for ;-)

  • ridingwaves

    Might jump into ASM and IAG on any pullback

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Mole you had an article way back, about this.
    along the lines of, if the public knows, it’s useless info.

  • SS_JJ

    did not know about ASM: Wow!

  • Pervergence

    STILL l GC……nice ride…..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Pervergence

    Very interesting….

  • newbfxtrader

    Long above 15?

  • ridingwaves

    the monthly is pretty nice interesting

  • ridingwaves

    BCRX was the setup from last friday…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    15 was just an observation, (it’s) up to the individual.
    but the trend is pointing up ..a hint: for any stubborn ppl.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    post it, I don’t have monthly access.

  • AcoBrasil

    Nice move!!

    You’ve been killing it with the pharmas.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no problem. something I over looked.

  • ridingwaves

    jumped in DCTH for a short squeeze possiblity on friday and it looks like it’s beginning, if you like buy and hold, get OSIR on all dips, in 5 years it will be a $100 pps.
    TSRX going to 25 per PF chart, I would take some off at 20…
    CHTP could go to 4.5 from here, in much earlier…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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