NEW POST

New cramericious evil deed! Sorry Mole! ;-)

Careful shorting GS- they're gunning for 89.

but is that double top XLF 1min. chart?

yea and BAC is still in the red lol. I dont think it will ever go green

BAH! Bumping into you in the halls. LOL

Can someone give me a tutorial on pricing SPY put options. I am looking at April.

Katzo- most of us are playing the June 65 puts. They have been profitable. ;-)

Buy the spy june 65 puts nice and cheap now

Thanks Mr Vix.

Puts are on sale! .618 breached at 849.25 adding up to 862. Good luck all

shorting 1 /ES

Welcome to the new bull market..Next stop 12,000 lol

Market is moving into a positive feed back loop.....feeding on itself!!!!

flagging.... pinned to the top of the channel on /es, will be burning off overbought. The line has been drawn

Force is strong with the market this morning...

http://screencast.com/t/49IVMxck

agree alpha, SPY keeps chewing thru my 60m rez. lines... 85.25 last one... need the momo to slow

I am looking to short around here, but GS, MS and JPM are up around 6%. Could this be an early signal for a short-term market turnaround?

Hey MOLE ! . ES is @ 848 is that good enough to short yet ?

Don't fall in love with this rally, it can turn on a dime and violently!

now at very large and important support levels in treasuries. 2.95 on 10yr notes. High risk/reward to shorting TBT (or buying TLT or TLT calls). use 100.5 on TLT as a stop.

I think you nailed it but watching tbt for a potential short around 49.28, it's HOD.
Don't think it will get there again though.

selling 1 /NQ.... waiting for /ES

Erikd, u here.

still long XLF....

u selling if it closes below 8.8?

yes that is the area that will stop me out... still long

MS is a beast. Damm thing likes to go up all the time

MS will come down hard.

$SPX potential upside target is 862.00.. So be careful on shorting all at 845-850 level..

862, not 879?

too late for me, just added some puts. Will add more shorts up to your 862 level. Thanks, Nandu!

hey, i know u from some other 'blog'. good to have you back. please keep posting your ideas here.

Indus rocks.

Always good to hear from you.

My charts seem to be sitting on the fence today... I suppose if I had to guess, I would bias down... But , no guessing.

Will be watching SPY 83.74... if it shows a break, with avengence. I will grab a hedge for my longs... probably SDS

$SPX short term

http://screencast.com/t/e1jG8gaUG

+1

Nice chart my expectation is also around that range.

Good morning guys,

Check out this chart, very interesting

http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/

Wow, your fractal is a huge trip down memory lane, and it appears to be setting up again. The big down day following that fractal is September 19, 2008. I was following an ominous EW interpretation and that period was in the Puetz crash window. And I'd just read two of Mandelbrott's books, one of which speculated (proved) that Black-Sholes tragically underpriced distantly out of the money options for 'long tailed events.' I was deep into it and had, on September 18, had established a 9000 CONTRACT position in October 38 puts on QQQQs at $.14 to $.61 (average was about $.24). Well, I didn't stay in until expiration which I recall was intrinsic $9 just before expiration, but I made a lot of money that day, walked out the back door and bought CDs at BB&T (through the CDDRS program that spreads CDs among several banks to achieve 100% FDIC insurance) on my broker account. $9 intrinsic would have been a 37 bagger. I recall the rumor de jour that day was an imminent cessation of inter bank credit....ATMs were rumored to potentially stop working. Once in a lifetime.

It really looks like a very similar fractal, Puetz and EW setup. Just couldn't happen again could it?

VJ

Well I am hoping that it could happen again as i miss the boat last time. lol.

But yes the set up look exactly the same and I have my target set on JPM and HBC. If SPX can touch 853-855 range that's where I am going to buy March puts on JPM, HBC and may be on SSO

Mole, thanks for the continued excellent analysis and identification of credible alternates.

I noted several discussions of February 9 full moon which is also the first lunar eclipse following the solar eclipse which occurred January 26. For those who follow lunar and solar cycle stuff you might want to review the literature on the Puetz crash window. Its a very noteworthy statistical observation but please take it in perspective as being an observation and not a rule. Peter Elliades and Chris Carolan, separately, have studied the noteworthy Puetz observation and following are the quotes (freely available on the web) I jotted down last year when the window began about August 15, 2008 (recall what happened in the two months following August 2008):

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Relevant dates for the Puetz window would be:

1/11/2009 Full moon
1/26/2009 Annular Solar Eclipse
2/9/2009 Full moon AND Penumbral Lunar Eclipse
3/11/2009 Full moon

Remember also Feb 9 is also a Bradley turn date. And further consider that a long list of noteworthy analysts have recently called for a March high; Peter Elliades, Charles Nenner, Martin Armstrong. And simplify the meaning of the Puetz window. All great crashes occur in the Puetz window, however, the Puetz window (which occurs twice annually) does not destine that a crash will occur. If the Puetz phenomenon does occur, we should see flattening of price action into Feb 9 and then fireworks. McHugh has a Phi turn date at Feb 18 (he's been hot with those turns for several months) and then another March 19 (I think).

So, if Hochberg/Prechter's wave 5 is currently in progress, then it must occur quickly and, if they are right and it will test the 2002 lows, SPX must go 12% very quickly in order recover to a mid March "reactionary high" as Martin Armstrong has described it. Fits perfectly with the Puetz crash window. It also sets up a serious challenge to Hochberg/Prechter's application of EW (they failed at the 2002 lows). I'm cautiously in their camp.

Good luck, VJ

Feb 18 is interesting but Carolan's solutide is implying a high.
However :-
28 TDs from 1/9 to Oct low
28 TDs from spike high in Oct to Nov low
29 TDs from Nov low to Jan high
29 TDs from Jan high to FEB 18 !!

Hopefully a whoosh down to that date and a retest would be nice.
My finger is on the trigger and hopefully i won't blow my foot off in the suspense.

Yes, recently even Elliades cautiously said the short term bottom (Nov 24) was in. And Peter is the ultimate quant. He would have checked his Puetz window. Nenner, a solar cycles EW analyst said yesterday the time to buy stocks is imminent (within days). Other analysts from my count favor the upside an no whoosh down. It would seem EW and Puetz are in trouble on this one, however..... VJ

Unfortunately I am not the smartest cookie on the block.

How does McHugh's [which I know about] phi turn come into play? If the market goes south on the 9th then
McHugh's phi turn date on the 14th would that be the signal for the big rally of 12% in SPX?

McHugh's Feb 14 date is plus or minus a couple days, and is simply a change in trend. Might be a bottom or top. My favored Hochberg/Prechter scenario (wave 5 in progress) would be a hard down into Feb 14+ or - a couple days with a nasty V bottom propelling the market into the mid March 'reactionary high' favored by Armstrong and the next McHugh Phi date (which would be a high). Its disconcerting that Eliades, Nenner and other noted analysts have recently said a noteworthy bottom is in and are looking for the March high. Again, this seems to be a notable test of the application of EW since the wave 5 calls seem contrary to other analyst's calls.

VJ

VJ

Thanks for taking the time to straighten me out.

Always enjoy your post...please keep them coming!

Vj
Great post and very informative. Here is a site for those who are interested in this science.

http://astrocycle.net/Astrology.php?DIV=Astro
$al

Good morning all.

I love days like yesterday when I feel 100% confident about the direction of the market. Yesterday, all the stars were aligned for an up day and the market took its time consolidating under 8000 so we could build long positions, then rallied nicely capping a wonderful day.

The only thing that I'm certain about today is that the market will be violent today and once it turns south it will be with momentum. The ADP #s come out today and for the life of me I can't figure out why? and who cares, these #s have been so unreliable first low, then they adjusted their methodology and were way too high. Yet, the market always reacts to them. If they haven't retweaked their model the numbers will likely be worse than expected and could be the catalyst for a big, big down day. In addition, if the market is up for some reason early (CPC still very low which indicates volitility) and the banks continue to lag, then buckle up, cover your longs if you have any and get ready. The DOW set a lower low a couple of days ago, and the S & P is destined to follow suit, will it be today?

Thanks Alphahorn for your analysis. It is good to have you and Molecool (et al) in the pilot's seats so we can figure this all out. Yesterday completely faked me out as I saw it going lower, all of my indicators (MADCs, Stochs, EWs) had set up for this. But I have seen this irrational move numerous times recently before where the indicators get broken and a projected movement is redefined. I did not play at all yesterday, only watched as I was unsure.

Mole's posting yesterday of the $NYUD was an eye opener.

Thanks again Mole and Alphahorn.

I'm not in Mole's league, but thanks and be careful today could be violently up first. if you have any longs, today's a good day for trailing market stops imho

I am thinking of picking up some spy puts on any run up. Any advise as to strike/month?

this is a better question for S&P and Mole who trade a lot of options, i tend to stay in the underlying securities

There is gap down from 870 that caused the Island Reversal pattern on Thursday, I wonder if we get a fill, and I wonder if that fill would cap the market rally.

piazzi
markettime.blogspot.com

Nice charting piazzi - I still think my Batman nails it though ;-)

All the power to you, and your bat, of course ;-)

OK guys - its all much clearer now - the Batman pattern is now in play......how appropriate on the day Warner report a $16b 4th qtr loss.

http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders...

H&S forming on the ES 60min - neck around 807 - tgt around 740......??? What d'ya think?

http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders...

IWM: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3363/3252735772_...

Interesting that the two double or nothing lines are such good peaks and troughs.

Beware the lines of crawling shame! The Market Stays FLAT! (Can crawl in these two big channels until after march quarterlies. )

And what should i do about wanting to break one of my own rules. Seems unwise, and i haven't, but i want to.

Excellent read this Martin Armstrong piece . Thanks a million Mole !!!!!

I'm looking at the 845-857 area to exit any longs (probably way before that, like tomorrow) then add shorts. If 812 breaks this week, tanking is very likely. Also jobs on Friday.

Did I read this correctly: A purple thong during trading hours.. DAYMN how did i miss this????????? We went from molerats to MOLERATS!!!!!!! :) Of course Talk is cheap... She was probably wearing NADA!

I think there was some misrepresentation played here. It was really pink.

845 and 853 : those are the fibonnocci 50% and 61.8256721398% SPX retracement numbers for purchase of puts. I will implement purchases like a methodical brain lesioned robot at these points. I'm serious. Here's partly why : http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/sentiment/

CPC is below .80 again as well. I think you have a good risk:reward scenario setting up here.

SPY MAR $84 call : http://tinyurl.com/cvj9l8
SPY MAR $74 put : http://tinyurl.com/734xqw
SPY MAR $75 put : http://tinyurl.com/aez97a (Highest volume today in the 'hood of $74)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123369745758144...

SPDR Trust topped the list for Selling on Strength, which tracks stocks that rose in price but had the largest outflow of money.

Hi Fuzzy; a little patience for the stupid if you would. High vol SPDR trust sales is suggesting people selling at the high expecting a decline?

Yep!

Hi All,

Many gave feedback on this blog. I was monitoring this blog for a while. Very modest owners and really "Bent On Market Domination". Way to go and would like to be a part of this blog.

Thanks

Indus,

Awsome to see you here!

i've listened to you at the other blog. Wondered why he was so harsh given you were clearly under the influence. I'll be following your comments here.

nandu welcome!

Yeeeeeaaaahhhhhhhhh Nandu.
Yeeeeaaaahhhhhhhhhh.

Hi Indus, I'm glad to see you here. Give me some of those awesome posts you do! =)

You've found a good new home, Nandu.

I highly recommend molecool and his evil speculating!

All the best, JB3

You are very welcomed, especially if you have a lesioned brain; see my article posted above.

This is for you tonight S & P. ;-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=manxPVTLth8

Oh, and welcome Indus. :-)

Thanks Keirsten that was goooood ! Tune was fullPHILing.

Thank you!

Glad you're posting again! Love your stuff!

Hi Indus, picked up on some of your input over at Atillas place - look fwd to learning more. All the best.

Computer says ..... yes!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBPhGzQAi-U

The more the merrier - and Steve seems to like you already.

Nandu is a high calibre trader. His background is time/price/gaps/trendlines rather than EW, but despite that obvious flaw (j/k) he's one savvy dude.

Xtrends loss is evil's gain, mole.

You're pretty high calibre yourself JB =)

Maybe (blush), but when it comes to numerical and % gain performance, I'm tipping my man Nandu is out in front of me.

Thanks JB3. Hope we all can rock and roll here to make some good money in the coming months..

That's okay, I'm so old school sometimes that I still use swing highs/lows and MA crossovers on an etch-o-sketch.

Nandu! Good to see you here!

That was a cool chart, it it works we'll see 1000 spx ; (

S&P, you meant my crack chart? : )

Thanks Steve. Missed you all for a week.

Make or break(orange fork) day tomorrow 02/04
http://forkoholic.com/images/spxforksetup020409...

http://forkoholic.com/images/spxmakebreak020409...

really good +1

Closed out my QLD calls today for my target profit. Again, I'm taking trades very cautiously and taking profits with a modest target right now...and in this environment (and _for me_ most importantly) it's what I feel is best.

http://screencast.com/t/KVZn7tJIR

90# on your telephone


I dialed '0' and asked the operator who confirmed that this was correct so please pass it on . . (l also checked out Snopes.com..this is true, and also applies to cell phones!)

PASS ON TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW

I received a telephone call last evening from an individual identifying himself as an AT&T Service Technician (could also be Telus) who was conducting a test on the telephone lines. He stated that to complete the test I should touch nine(9), zero(0), the pound sign (#), and then hang up. Luckily , I was suspicious and refused.

Upon contacting the telephone company, I was informed that by pushing 90#, you give the requesting individual full access to your telephone line, which enables them to place long distance calls billed to your home phone number.

I was further informed that this scam has been originating from many local jails/prisons

DO NOT press 90# for ANYONE.

The GTE Security Department requested that I share this information with EVERYONE I KNOW.

After checking with Verizon they also said it was true, so do not dial 90# for anyone !!!!!

PLEASE HIT THAT FORWARD BUTTON AND PASS THIS ON TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW!!!

Dude, how am I supposed to place long distance calls now?

Buy yourself a Magic Jack!

I'm still using the steel cans with a string.

wow, I just scream

Shit...nice call...now I gotta completely re-edit my response to your post. :-) Kudos on your diligence...+1.

oops sorry wrong blog this was a bullshit email i got

mole, I am just trying to be useful here. I noticed this pattern but I didn't pay too much attention to it since I know very little about fractal. I just read a post elsewhere (no traitor here or anywhere), that is the very same pattern but with very detailed EW counts. I look at my, and if it is the case, then the dotted blue channel should be the ST top on its first try to "E", if we ever going to get there.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/32516...
Let me know if I am smoking crack.

Based on careful analysis of your chart I can wholeheartedly confirm that you are smoking crack.

That count is technically possible, but unrealistic as the final drop you labeled as a B wave does not follow the characteristics of a consolidation pattern - too violent. Also, the triangle's angle is a bit too steep for comfort from what I remember how in particular Prechter likes to see them.

However, your target is a possibility and close to what I'm shooting for in the original triangle scenario. Nothing is impossible and people disagree on wave counts all the time, but you asked for my opinion, so you got it.

mole, thanks. I am a newbie for EW. I know the very basics of it. It is good to know what you think, and for me what not to do. Your are the best! cheers!

Anyone playing the new volatility ETNs? - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/02/vix...

I was feeling kinda sorry for the Bulls, so thought I would put up a chart for them... I do not play in the Daily pool, so it makes little difference to me. Actually, I see no reason why price can not go up.... I see no reason why price can not go down either... :-)

SPX 500 daily

http://screencast.com/t/744Ov0KocM

"I was feeling kinda sorry for the Bulls"

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here... this is Evil Speculator!!

This is how we deal with permabulls around here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmOH5f1J1Uc

check my analysis... not too much room left in the upsdie

http://i39.tinypic.com/wki6u9.jpg

VIX looks good if you are short I think we might be going down
http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/200...

That is a really great chart. Thank you very much +1

I read an article on Financial Times that some of gold rush last week is due to buying in Europe - fear inEuropean's equity market and currency. They turned into Gold. If this is the case, gold dropping today might be due to the turn up in Europe.

The Euro has been moving inversely to gold since mid Jan. (normal) It was shortly thereafter that gold began moving more in concert with the USD. Follow the money.

Of course, totally makes sense, thanks for the comment, thus the gap up in gold and gap down in equities on the same day. Both caused by troubles in Europe. Simple, good fundamental explanation.

molecool,

What do you think about my charts?

http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/

Any tips to improve them?

Stop using your mental powers and stealing the charts out of my head! =)

Sure! How's this:

http://screencast.com/t/q9d6xA6AeX

(j/k - they're fine as they are)

LMAO !!

Thanks,

Why does that look like one of my pal Steve's (which all kidding aside I found interesting) charts.

I've been following the evilspec blog for about a month now, and have to say that you provide some of the best technical analysis on the net. Thanks for keeping up with the exhausting, daily grind and posting your personal assessments on where this bear market is headed next. Anyway enough with the praise, here's my two sense for a short play:

Take a look at SSRI. Why short this silver stock?

1. We are in a deflationary environment, not inflationary. Commodity inflation is only on the horizon.
2. The wave count looks to be at the top of motive wave "a"...meaning the down "b" wave is in transit.
3. Around $20.60, looks to be the 50% fibonacci retracement
4. RSI is on the cusp of being overbought.
5. Full stochastics overbought.
6. Bouncing off the 200 day moving average.
7. No dividend and forward P/E of 74.

....and down goes Frazier!!!

Any feedback?

My stochastic says it might go higher - frightening prospect.

I use SS and it's showing down also look at parabolic stop and Reverse dots, you see we got it today on Slow Stochastic
http://www.screencast.com/users/irochka11/folde...

What settings do you use for Stochastics? Thanks !
Oops never mind. Saw your post to Nepharis.

A few short ideas to contribute....ALKS, ATK, CEC, CIB, GTS, HLTH and LEAP. All look like interesting entry points.

Here's my short ideas

http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/2009/02/once-a...

Tks for the suggested reading.....

TLT - This is a different view of TLT. I put it onto a weekly chart. Stochastics, MACD, pointing lower still. I am unloading mine around 100 at the weekly 30 day MA. I also own TBT that I will sell at the same time.

http://screencast.com/t/eVn3rv76Lf

Yield is up and dollar is week, but yet gold drop. Sell off on good news indicates more downside or a mistake that will self correct soon?

The required reading was full of good stuff although it would have been a lot better if the author could write a lick.

BTW, AAPL makes for a nice short with tight stop.

I'm not a fan of his or his theories, but it contained very valuable references many folks here might not be aware of. Some people actually think that the 'Great Depression' was the only one. As a matter of fact a much more critical one was what's now known as the 'Long Depression' (1873 - 1896), which was originally termed the 'Great Depression' until the 1930s.

I guess every century gets one - we are starting early.

Or maybe we are starting late and that's the 'Greater' problem.

Been taking a good look at the Slow Stochastic (10,10) in Prophet on 60min, and I *really* like what I see. Has anyone formed trading systems based around / using the SS with any success? Looking through weeks of data on a bunch of different stocks, it looks like it could be quite profitable. My thanks to mole for giving us the heads up on this indicator.

So, that would be a FullStochastic at 10,10,3. Not a bad setting but let me show you something:

http://screencast.com/t/7sWBCb8ve

See this? It rises too quickly and then goes flat. If you go back to early January you might have loaded into puts way too early. By looking at mine I was able to see it hit almost 100% at which point I grabbed my puts.

Of course in the end the choice is yours - whatever works best for you.

http://tinyurl.com/clwpll
http://tinyurl.com/ca2723

I recall thinking that MAR to JUN run a wee long.

Interesting.. although, I guess it also depends on what you use for the
trade trigger. My understanding of the SS is that a signal is triggered
with you recross the 80 or 20 lines towards the middle... in this case, the
both of them signal a sell almost right at the peak -- but the 14,3,3 wins
on not triggering the buy/cover early like the 10,10 does. Methinks there's
a lot more nuance to these indicators than most people use...

Thanks!

I study stochastics every single day, nepharis - constantly improving and testing. After a while you also develop a 'feel' for them, so to say. it's when intuition meets technical analysis when magic happens :-)

i think the market would gap down tomm. fact is every time we went sub 8000 the market advanced for few days, so this time would be diffrent.

Spoken like a true bull.... ('this time it's different').

Well, why waste any energy on trying to predict it - if it happens - fine - if not we deal with it.

well said

FWIW, I think the poll should say whether or not your money in the market is short or long.

Long delta, long gamma. Lets get ready to rumble.

Thought about it but that's another poll.

Double Bottom on COST (11/20 - 2/2). You should be able to grab a few points to the upside.

im long uyg from around 4.70. can you say under water. I have been lurking for a while. thanks for your hard work mole! do the banks "pop" or "tank" on the "bad bank" news? goodluck to all traders!

In the "old days" i would look at today's tape and say "Its time to start adding to my longs".

These days its "Time to move the stop up a little bit. Please let it would continue for a few more days." And it never happens.

I've always favored shorter time frames just as I've shunned the news. Now I keep Bloomberg or CNBC playing in the background (if only for a few laughs.) Time frames are shorter than ever. I'm picking entries and exits with a 5 minute chart, sometimes switching to a 3 minute chart when things get really whippy. I have not even studied the 15 minute chart in months.

Is this what they call adapting? I call it tough. Congrats to all those above water for the past year.

Awesome Mole... thoughts on the VIX? My newbee chart says lower perhaps?

http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/...

good post once again!!!

I have few trades in mind:
1. buy dzz
2. buy TBT (also sold too early). I do expect a rally in bonds soon.... they are oversold
3. might buy UYG.... not sure about this one.

There is a strong chance that I may very well be wrong about this, but gotta learn somehow...

Doesn't TBT track bond rates. Since price moves opposite to yield, and your expecting a price rally, wouldn't you want to short TBT?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/etfs/html-prof...
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/etfs/html-prof...

Go long TLT & save the margin expense of shorting.

yields = rates. TBT actually tracks price movements though. If the 10yr note rises in yield 12bps, this means it goes down about 1pt in price . TBT is 2x inverse, so it would be up 2 points (2%). TBT actually tracks the 20-30 yr part of the Lehman Agg, so it would be some sort of weighted performance of this sector. I am short some TBT, and looking to add. 2.90-95 will be tough to break on 10's IMO. Still a bull market and many fundamental and technical reasons for low yields, contrary to public opinion.