Hot Zones

We need to a comment cleaner (you guys are out of hand) and this is a good opportunity for a Saturday afternoon reality check. Nothing charges me up more than to scare my leeches into complete submission:

In case you wonder – no, this is not a heat map projecting the impact of global warming (it might actually very well be). Rather, it’s a geographic representation of the impact this financial crisis will exert across various nations as projected by a recent LEAP report.

LEAP/E2020 has studied the situation for the main countries and regions of the world along seven precise criteria enabling to measure their degree of immunity to the financial detonator.

  • Share of the economy dedicated to the financial sector
  • Share of the economy dedicated to services
  • Level of household debt
  • Quality of financial system and household assets
  • Relative amount of public debt (municipalities and social systems included)
  • Relative amount of external debt (trade and payment)
  • Share of capital-based pensions on overall pension fund system.

Based on these criteria, [the] team was able to identify 6 major groups of countries hardly related geographically but with similar profiles.

The report goes with a projection of approximately how long each of these regions will be affected and also elaborates on main challenges in overcoming this systemic crisis. Great stuff to say the least.

It pains me to say this as a brand new citizen of this nation – but the U.S. is toast – we’re done for. What you are witnessing is a complete reset of our geo-political and global economic landscape. If you are planning your retirement you might want to head over to their site to read the report in full – there is also some other valuable information. Some of it might guide you when making decisions that will affect the long term well-being of your family.

Rats – we better bank some serious coin going forward. If you depend on a day job there’s a real chance you will lose it – if not this year then perhaps the next. If you won’t take the hit then maybe your wife will or one of your close relatives. I truly believe that almost no U.S. household will be spared.

I want to be very clear on this people, as some of you might be lured into buying the impending media hype, claiming that the ‘worst is over’ and that it’s all uphill from here. Of course – that’s what the ruling elite always tells their minions – the truth, after all, is politically inconvenient. You don’t win elections or maintain control by telling everyone that they’re screwed. Which is why we see bullish sentiment kick into high gear every time the market bounces up by a few points. And I expect nothing less in a few weeks from now when we phase into a temporary stock market recovery that I expect will last a few months and will end by fall at the latest. Don’t be fooled and only use it as an opportunity to bank short term profits. The days of ‘buy and hold’ are over and unless you are under 40 you will probably not see it return during the tenure of your professional career.

Always remember that the economy and the stock market are detached. Think of it like a mirror image – and a warped one at best. What you see in the mirror is only a reflection of reality and we all know the game is rigged. Your economy is a lot more depressing than it appears.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better – a lot worse. As stainless steel rats survival is our main mission – so, let’s pull together and help each other through this crisis.

Quote of the week:

“Gold will be restrained until the average person has no capacity to buy it.” — Enfinity

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 7th, 2009 at 3:30 pm and is filed under Market News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • thanks for sharing great post but why financial crises came and how we avoid these crises? if anybody best answer and idea then post here again thanks waiting your positive response
  • YOUR MOMENT IS IN.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • katzo7
    Well, so glad things are getting better. This should be the basis for valid rally (extreme sarcasm here). Note the first chart and the last quote by Mish.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    I am well aware that this chart represents real people real pain, in real time.
  • Inaugural "Sunday Night Coffee" post - Trading plan for the week and summary of prior posts - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/02/sunday-night-coffee-282009.html
  • TraderTamas
    South Africa looks quite nice.
  • jacksoo
    check out the crime stats first......bloody awful
  • Bloody is the appropriate context.
  • The M
    Mole-
    Thank you for this. It is excellent & only reaffirms the decision that we have made to relocate out of USA. Speaking of excellence I also compliment you for the piece you wrote on getting your trading head screwed on right. Right stuff at the right time. Was very, very helpful and conducive to taking a deep breath & stepping back and thinking things thru. Great site!
  • TraderTamas
    Where have you decided to relocate to?
  • STORM
    Correction: I meant that this rally is *NOT* Primary B.

    I believe we are heading for an e-wave to 900...tops...then wave 5 will show its ugly face...;)

  • katzo7
    Perhaps a double top at 877 (other one was on Jan. 28th, 877.86) and then down, down, down. We have had quite a few of these, back on Dec. 8th (918.57) and Dec. 17th (918.85).
  • $RUT next target is 482-484 area, before going down. Thats my next short target.
  • jacksoo
    Hi indus - whats triggering that thought for you? How does that correlate with SPX? Cheers.
  • STORM
    I think you are right on the target mate. We'll finally hit the roof of Primary B, which has lured the mainstream people to jet in all they got in order to "make a buck when while it's cheap". I expect this rally to end no later than SPX 900, then we are in for ride down the slope. A some aggressive bounces will try to get us perma-bears out of buisness, so be careful with auto-stop-loss, use trailing if feeling unsecure.
  • asetrader
    CEPH and CWT or on my short watchlist. I guess there's two sides on each trade.
  • I think that can often happen because these setups are really risk management entry points. I'll be waiting on confirmation on a breakout. You'll be expecting the resistance to hold and the breakout to either not happen or fail.

    Using XLU as an example, I shorted it at $30 on Friday. I don't personally believe it will break above $30.50 (the recent high). However, I could certainly see someone waiting for XLU to break $30.50 and having it on their long watchlist.

    On CEPH and CWT, I see ascending triangles and momentum is not super high (using RSI) meaning if there is a break I think there is room for price expansion. I would feel better about your short if RSI was up near 70 or so.

    With that said, what makes you call these shorts rather than longs?




    ________________________________
  • little fish
    Tipping points are very strange things in that even if you see them coming, the consequences are never obvious until viewed in the rear view mirror.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11771

    march 2009 - next tipping point...

    June 2011 - bottom of current crash cycle?

    if we are thinking we are winning.
  • Looks like they read Armstrong's treatise
  • rhae
    My SPY daily trend analysis
    http://screencast.com/t/RbL4SUW3ZM

    I luv candlestick too, but you can see the the problem with spoting the swing points, just more difficult... same chart I just toggled the sticks...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/PQb6lVrh7CJ note: screencast does not always update the copy and paste, so just copy off the selested line.
  • MACT
    wrote this on xtrends, hope you guys/gals find it remotely useful...but prob not...:).


    I for one agree with you...this doesnt feel like to explosive 50% retrace bear mkt rally that we all know will come one day...I just dont think the time is now...we need to make new lows then we should see this bear mkt rally...the bear mkt rally should be explosive and not be so choppy....should be based on "news" of some type.

    Nobody can be 100% sure about anything but here is my evidence.

    1. $USD/UUP a few months ago, sold off hard and retraced exactly 0.62 of the entire incline from 7/08 to 10/08...now it appears to be basing for the next move up....also remember Atillas longterm chart on long bond from a week ago?

    TLT, the 20 yr Barclays long bond has retraced exactly 0.62 from the entire ascent from 6/08 to 12/08's parabolic move up....odds are high it will start its climb again.....and GLD looks very toppy to me.

    Treasury dept will have a huge auction this week for their long bond...62B I believe...we all know most countries are tapped out and scared now...only way I can see them buying again is if the mkts showed instability again...fear needs to come back in the mkts...a buy the rumor and sell the news situation could accomplish this ...once the stimulus and TARP fiasco is over and done with, the mkts will be looking for the next "bailout or hope filled shenanigan" but it wont come for awhile....like a drug user who just got his fix, he will be looking for the next fix and without concrete evidence of the new fix, they will be depressed and labile...reality will once again set it...The govt cannot have these auctions fail as it would signal the beginning of the end....while we all know the collapse of our financial system will happen one day, the govt doesnt want anybody to know this...the mkts usually will not appease the masses.

    2. The ISEE and $CPC are showing were near a top, as they are at bullish extremes now, a bearish sign...havent checked COT but Im guessing retail is quite bull'd up now...the bullish sentiment is now higher than it was in 11/07 when people were euphoric and drunk with illusions...look at this MB itself, which for the most part has been very bearish...the tone of this board has changed quite abit and maybe rightly so...most seem bullish to 950-1050 SPX now...listen to the CNBC pundits, they are getting euphoric again...Kudlow is prob wearing Depends right now as he has clearly unloaded several times in his shorts on air recently...:).

    3. The reason I dont think the "bottom" even on IT term was 11/21 is because of this...Oct showed the peak of the credit srisis...the HF's and mutual funds had to unload modestly for various reasons...but what I didnt see is the avg Joe capitulating...until this happens, we havent seen even the IT bottom imho...most people I have talked to havent sold anything, they are hoping and praying...the mkts job is to seperate the avg Joe from his/her's hard earned money...Joe sixpack will be seperated from his/her money soon and they will capitulate, just a matter of time...this I am confident on.

    When this is over, the avg Joe will give up on stocks and they wont want anything to do with them for decades....and real estate will be seen as a place to live.

    4. at the peak, the stock mkt was worth 60T...thats means approx 25T in equity wealth has been lost this past yr...and over past 2 yrs, 10-15T worth of real estate wealth has been lost...so with approx 40T worth of wealth being lost, do you really think 1-2T being spent by the govt is going to be effective?....look at the latest stimulus pkg, it has very little impetus to actually be stimulatory...its mostly pork and money for prog's that already exist......esp considering that most of this money is being hoaded by the banks...M2 and 3 has risen sharply but with money velocity being sharply toned down by banks hoarding money, people shying away from debt, and banks contracting credit limits...the environment is still very deflationary.

    5. Here are some things that should set off more panic and chaos.

    -Europe is holding most of the bad loans from emerging mkts...they will be defaulting...study Iceland as this is what will happen to many countries over the next several yrs...chaos and anger will be seen....european banks will cont to be nationalized one after another...the credit bubble has popped!...lastly, their real estate bubble was bigger than ours!...spain, greece, italy, ireland, portugal, england will implode this yr.

    -many US states will be bankrupt without TARP funds..people will see this next month with CA...while CA will get bailed out, it will show how serious this situation is...more and more states will need govt assitance.

    -retail is imploding right now...this will put alot of pressure on commercial RE...CRE is usually 2 yrs behind residential real estate so you will see this collapse this yr...and when CRE collapses, it tends to be more severe than RRE...when this is over, you could see CRE collpase by 75% because Im convinced RRE will be down by 50% 2-3 yrs from now....Case Shiller says RRE is down 25% from the peak already.

    -when the TARP smoke clears, people will realize that our banks are essentially nationalized right now...the common shareholders will either be wiped out or will be diluted severely...these stocks will all trade down below 5.00...think of AIG, FRE, FNM.....you will know thr bear mkt is close to being over when GS trades below 10.00


    If Im wrong and the mkts cont to grind up, I will have long positions because I intend to try to make money either way, but never lose sight of the fact we are in a BEAR mkt....also realize we are in the beginnings of a depression and not just a recession and this will allow yourself to plan more effectively for the future....I would be surprised if SPX takes out 890.
  • slartybardfast
    "Kudlow is prob wearing Depends right now as he has clearly unloaded several times in his shorts on air recently"

    LOL.... thanks for the visual :)
  • katzo7
    Excellent research MACT. Always liked your stuff, not sure what you said we would probably not find this useful.
  • MACT
    thx...its just that I dont post on this MB much, although I do read it...I should post more on this MB...I usually like to post when Mole gets me going on the illuminati and the elites ...:).
  • C.C. Rider
    I'm using the VIX as a confirmation tool on short term direction. Pull back on Monday, followed by a move to 910 or 920 SPX over next 10 days. I'll be looking for a VIX bottom at 30ish. Then, 4 more weeks of torture for the longs.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/folders/Default/media/01eeeb80-aeef-45c8-9f42-e3f5a49c8492/2009-02-08_0921.png
  • yea, it obviously mirrors the bearish rising wedge on the SPY.
  • What time frame do you see the RW on SPY?
  • 15 minute, beginning with the 2/5 drop on up
  • jon
    kurious--- does your chart predict a move down now? to where?
    thanks , jon
  • Kurious
    no if i get a cross over on the final of my 3 triggers I will post my chart.
  • FerdtheMoonCat
    Does Trinchet subscribe to LEAP?
  • workdog
    A request for help from you more experienced EWTers. Have I marked the waves correctly on the following charts? TIA.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AA&p=W&b=9&g=0&id=p07121921803&a=160906539&listNum=2

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=W&b=9&g=0&id=p07121921803&a=160909040&listNum=2
  • katzo7
    Ok, here is the thing.
    AA
    Not sure why you are looking at AA. For a potential trade? Shorting the airlines?
    Possibility for this is it could form a new EW4 top (a second or even higher top to the right) if it keeps on following the general market up. Second, if EW2 is simple then EW4 can be a complex wave (multi peaks). Third, stochs are pointing to a move up also. which leads me to believe it can happen but doesn't necessarily say it will happen. EWs conform to the market, market does not conform to the EWs.
    OIH
    EW1 8/11, EW2 8/21 EW3 12/05 EW4 1/06 (but could move over to right if we form another peak, stochs point to a move higher) Another EW4 double top formation?
    Hope this helps.

  • workdog
    This is helpful. A couple of questions in response to your comment:

    1. Why does EW3 end in December as opposed to October? I guess the more general question is what ends a wave as opposed to just a retracement before continuing the wave?
    2. I'm long both positions. I just wanted to cross-check the EW perspective with the TA I used to go long.
    3. AA is Alcoa Aluminum. I assume you were thinking it was American Airlines

    Thanks again.
  • katzo7
    You are correct, AA is Alcoa. But I was looking at the symbol not the name so my info applies to AA.

    As far as EW3 ending in Dec. I suspect you mean OIH? Low of Dec. 05 was 60.96 which is lower than the Oct. low. I am looking at a day chart of OIH. Plot the dates I provided above and see what I mean. There are also proportional relationships, visual things, that come into play. You should recognize what "correct" EW forms look like. The proportions of EWs 5 (last top on 07/02) to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3 look okay to me. But EW3 to 4 (1/06/09) and especially beyond EW4 on that date are beginning to look suspect. It is traveling sideways for the most part.
    The following is why some complain about EW. Follow me here.
    OIH is at 83.64.
    If it shot up to 195, it breaches EW 2 top and now EW1 becomes an A, EW 2 becomes a B and EW 3 becomes a C. I do not think it will do this. The form looks very wrong for this to happen.
    But this sideways motion concerns me. What also could happen is that if it goes up to say, between 90 to 140 soon (100 looks doable but not a sure thing), the earlier wave count remains but a new EW4 is established there. BUT if it drops below the extant EW 3 soon at 57.75 (12/05) without a new EW 4 established, then the whole wave renumbers and the newly established low becomes a new EW 3, and the EW 1 and 2 could even move down depending on the length of the new EW 3.

    What I think is we will establish a new EW 4 around 90-100 and then drop to EW 5. Stochs and MACDs point to this also.




  • workdog
    Cool. Sounds like there's some subjectivity; guess you can't get around that in TA.
  • rhae
    SPY daily, I wanna know how it has been tracking....

    http://screencast.com/t/tX5OyV0Ud4x

  • katzo7
    Very interesting "timing circles" on bottom? Can you explain these a bit for me?
  • rhae
    The cycles at the bottom are fixed, you can set it any value you want. Some use Spy corralation average cycles. Thought I would give Martin Armstrong's 8.6 (9) a shot... which fit well.

    Then matched to fib vertical bars
  • katzo7
    What is the green/red line? And note that the vol. dries up on up moves.
  • rhae
    21 day ma
  • Kurious
    Take a look at this chart. SPX 20 year using my moving average to detect a market trend reversal.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/caelicker/folders/Default/media/6f5924d2-28a0-4213-86ca-1df0d7f83828
  • Susannah
    Can you explain exactly you're number 2 criteria? I'm not clear on why it would have picked up something there in 99/2000 but not in 98.
  • Kurious
    Susan :) I just didnt mark it. But if you take notice the trend was clearly up. :) The MA did a double cross over in 98 and continued upward. All I am doing is sharing my trading tactics. I hope it helps people with their future trades. Like I said the accuracy is pretty amazing but not 100%. Nothing is 100% and my 85% claim can turn into a 50% if we go into a whipsaw.
  • Susannah
    Thanks for the answer, I was just trying to understand, wasn't sure if I was missing something. Thank you for sharing!

    Also, I see now you didn't get confirmation on the MAs in 99. Think I need some more coffee lol.
  • katzo7
    I have tro repost Jacksoo's earlier comment. These f**kers are playing us like violins.

    "Is it me, or does this just piss you off also?
    "RBS, which was bailed out to the tune of £20bn by the government last year, will pay up to £1bn in bonuses to its 177,000 staff, the Sunday Telegraph has reported." These tossers have made personal fortunes over the last few years that would make Midas blush - Gov of the world are mortgaging our futures saving their arse and they're still stuffing their pockets. What the hell is going on?

    When there is this much money at stake you can bet your bottom dollar that lying and cheating will be par for the course. And further, when you're all involved who the hell is going to raise the alarm and kill this golden goose.

    "A ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND executive who led its investments into “toxic” sub-prime loans was paid close to £40m in just three years, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    Jay Levine, 47, was the bank’s highest-paid employee, earning almost four times more than former chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin.

    Levine, who ran the group’s American investment bank RBS Greenwich Capital, received the bumper pay deals over 2005, 2006 and 2007, according to sources close to the bank.

    His pay has never been disclosed since he was not a main-board director. The pay deals came as the bank ramped up its exposures to sub-prime mortgages, asset-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). " "
  • OK enough of this Marxist crap. As Armstrong writes, "As you listen to both Republicans and to the Democrats, you will notice, they all have prejudged Wall Street blaming them and once agin resorting to Marxism based philosophy. they are anointing all those who work in the financial industry as the "evil doers" that have caused the collaspse... The latest Financial Crisis .. is but a manifestation of events set in motion years ago that are now unfolding precisely according to time. The consequence of hte Business Cycle, is another important question to be resolved...Are we to yield to the rantings of Karl Marx and his hatred of the rich to blame the high salaries on Wall Street when that has nothing to do with current events anymore than huge salaries to sports figures?" As he goes on to state 'we cannot allow the problems of today destroy the Blessings of Liberty for our poterity depriving them of freedom merely to use the current events as an excuse to punish the rich as Marx espoused."

    This is a slippery slope, as someone who had a career on Wall Street I promise you not everone on Wall Street is evil. Yes, it is absurd to pay huge bonuses to those directly responsible for this mess. But, there are a number of talented people who have done nothing wrong and have generated millions of dollars for their firms. If these firms are to survive, then these people must be retained and to retain them you must compensate them. I agree that upper management, which is merely a cost center at most firms, must stand up and accept responsibility for what happened under their watch and should not receive bonuses. But, it would be a huge mistake in my opinion to paint everyone with this broad brush. We need our investment banks to survive, if we want capitalism to survive. We need the government to regulate the large firms with the same vigor they do the small ones. The cunundrum is that the mortgage back desks which created these problems are such a small part of the firms. Sure bonuses should probably be shifted to an emphasis in stock over cash, but it is not practical to expect someone who legitimately brought in millions of dollars in fees to the firm to not be paid because of abuses elsewhere.
  • Lordted
    What’s all this tosh about Marxism? The fact is that Marx understood that is was the business cycles and the global economic cycles that would as he put it cause Capitalism to self destruct. The fact that Marxism is back on the world menu I find a hoot! Even when it is to use him as a swear word. For Marx read the Boggy Man. But what's all this 'crap' got to do with trading? Which is what I thought this board was for??)
  • katzo7
    Marxist crap? By taking a stance that I am not satisfied with the "checks and balances" of this country--BTW Alphahorn, you can vote anyway you want to--and using our rights to voice one's opinion I am labeled a Marxist? Nice try. I remember the Republicans trying to label the Democrats with this gimmick. Who is "more" American? You BS flies in the face of what this country stands for.

    And I stated in my earlier post that many innocent people (in banking and every other endeavor) have lost their retirement funds, houses, jobs. You have kids? Are their futures brighter now?

    And one last thing? Do you Alphahorn really think anyone other than Madoff will be financially or otherwise punished for this? A very convenient scapegoat.
  • I would agree that the broad brush isn't the way to go here but the derivatives, funky accounting, and lots of other monkey business is indeed to blame here. Michael Lewis wrote about this years ago. It just happened to reach an unsustainable apex over the past year.

    I agree with Mole here.
  • No we don't need our investment banks to survive to save capitalism - as a matter of fact, they are already in rigor mortis but don't want to embrace reality. So we allow them to cook the books and hand them the future of our children because we are weak and eager to preserve a status quo that is obviously broken.

    BTW - did you actually ever read Marx? Perhaps you prefer Einstein:

    "The problems that exist in the world today can not be solved by the level of thinking that created them."
  • Yes, my little eastern college had us read Marx, and i read enough Marx to know that he was offended by what he saw as the greed of the wealthy and sought to protect the working classes from their abuse. Our government is doing the same thing today. Barney Frank has for some reason received a free pass, while he's as responsible as anyone for the mess we are in. As long as the government can ascribe blame to a class of people it exonerates itself.

    yes, most of the investment banks today are in fact dying/dead. And if you read my post, you will note that I stated the large firms need to be truly regulated and policed. MS and GS might very well survive, if they can accomplish that which they seek to have their stock prices appreciate to the point where they can issue equity or equity linked securities and pay off the tarp thereby returning to their traditional business model. There will be numerous start up investment banks over the next several years, timing might not be ideal for that, but it will occur.

    M&A activity will continue, and the equity and debt markets will survive. To blaim the current problem on the banks alone is silly.

    I believe Eistein would be more focused on changes such as abolishing income tax in favor of a sales tax, abolishing the impotent and corrupt SEC and CFTC (which are in bed with the large firms and stand by while markets are being manipulated) and giving sole authority to the Federal Reserve that it may have sole regulatory authority over the financial markets and the banking system, and undoing the deeds of Volker that set in motion the preposterous interest rates that credit card companies are allowed to charge consumers...
  • Can't disagree with much you've said (and I'm too tired now after my long post - LOL). My only comment would be that none of this discredits the LEEP projections. No matter what we'll do in the next few years - I do believe that we're in for some tough times and that the status quo will be challenged. I'm not sure that what will replace the current system will be any better - if history is any indicator it will most likely a slight reversal to post WWII systems which will then be deteriorated by the next two generations.

    FYI - I'm not a Marxist but some of his views were spot on.
  • I agree, the LEEP projections will likely be in the ballpark, and although it's been 3-4 decades since I study Marx, there is no doubt he was brilliant and good deal of what he wrote should impact each of us in some way. We should all have a Marxist heart to a certain extent, if that makes since.
  • Gwahir
    With regards to analogies and historic patterns - replay of 1973, 1937, 2002, whatever always keep Nassim Taleb in mind. We are dealing with scalable variables, prone to black swan events. Beware the narrative fallacy:

    "People (especially historians) naturally construct stories (narratives) about historical events with unjustified assumptions of causality, thereby giving a false sense of understanding. People therefore think the world is less random than it really is. They are blind to Black Swans. Stories constructed around Black Swans that have recently occurred make people far overestimate the probability of recurrence. New Black Swans will be events that no one envisions. Susceptibility to storytelling about the behavior of scalable variables blinds people to the existence of Black Swans."
    taken from: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/reviews/blog12-17-07/

    I doubt we see any significant move upwards. The unmitigated implosion of corporate earnings continues to drive p/e to unsustainable levels, putting a ceiling on how high stocks can go.
    Some numbers in this link in the chapter "Those Wild and Crazy Analysts" , the kitchen sink idea has some merit, but we are in rapid contraction eg the sink is rapidly getting bigger and more furniture will be sucked into it. http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/02/06/further-thoughts-on-the-continuing-crisis.aspx
  • Ohanes
    Thanks for the link, the reminder about "Black Swans" and for your insights....very helpful
  • katzo7
    Hi Everyone,
    Forgive me as this rant is going to be long and may offend a few.

    This morning I came up with a diabolical plan that even Molecool might be proud of. It's simplicity amazes me.

    Why are we putting up with this shit? Our IRAs, houses, jobs have been decimated and we basically do nothing. Was it the Koreans who were protesting their conditions a while ago? And someone else mentioned all going to Washington for a huge protest. We all have had the opportunity to experience a good analist. There, see how I worked this in? LOL

    Well, I have a better idea, a solution, a good reaction to what has occurred. Let's use what they gave us in America against these f**kers.

    NEXT ELECTION, LET US ALL VOTE OUT ALL OF THE INCUMBENT PARTIES. LET'S CLEAN HOUSE, KICK THEM ALL TO THE CURB, no matter what they stand for. What they have done. In two years, all parties up for election GO. In four years, all who are up for election GO. No matter what. We have the power to do this. Send the Barney Franks packing. The Kennedys. The Dodds. The Durbins. The Grahams. ALL GO. Good bye. Thanks a lot for your service. Clean sweep. The beauty of this plan is no single one gets singled out for their bad deeds. THEY ALL GO HOME. VERY BASIC.

    Aren't you all sick of the coziness with the lobbyists, the wars started on false info, the bridges to nowhere? If one wrote this in a novel, you wouldn't believe it. Let's see, a situation occurred where people at the top got very rich, many competent and hard working people will loose their jobs and investements, and we all will have to pay for it forever. Hey Katzo, WTF are you talking about here? Mad Cow? The banking crisis? Someone posted on here that the dynamic was to do anything to make money in the hopes of not being caught in it. Streets of America are paved with gold, just reach down, pick up a brick and RUN. Tax free. And meanwhile we have a tax code that not even a Phd can understand. Why do yo think they made this so complex? For our benefit? How many pages long is this tax code? Ha. Make it so complex that one cannot even find valid deductions, etc.

    Now. what do they do to fix a financial problem, they put in a billionaire wall streeter. He is going to fix it in the only terms he knows, the terms of an investment banker. Now, who gets rich there? And Bernanke. My comment about him has been that he perpetrated this so he could make his reputation, student of the Great Depression ( I know he really didn't start this, so like Mole said, sue me). But unlike his suspected plan--why does the scene in the movie SIDEWAYS come to mind where they let the Saab go down hill the second time and do not get exactly what they wanted to achieve--he has fallen into the trap that will doom him, AND US along with him. BTW, what was so great about the Great Depression? And Geithner in charge of IRS? Pleeeeze.

    SO my solution is simple. When I walk into the polling booth, I will not vote for any incumbent period. If I do this, it is a statement. If you do it it is a party. If we all do it, it is a social movement. ALL WILL GO HOME. Let's start anew.

    WE NEED A VALID CATCHY NAME FOR THIS REVOLUTION. I am completely serious about this. Please provide your ideas below and the winner will get 1 Smirnoff vodka martini.

    This message brought to you by 1 martini (BTW, I like Smirnoff), a night out listening to the Gandolf Murphy Slambovian Circus of Dreams (a heavy metal folk band if you believe this) in RI, and a good night's sleep.


  • C.C. Rider
    uh, how bout "2 and out". (martini's that is LOL!)
  • Echoes of The Kingfish - who came to power in the Great Depression:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huey_Long
  • Trying to stay objective here, and forgive me now if this turns into my second long post today, but I think the situation calls for at least an examination of all potential outcomes.

    I believe this market will eventually test the November lows and likely will trade lower. That does not mean that we should go all short right now in expectation. The near term picture is a bit less clear for the bearish case.

    First, we have a series of higher lows on the SPY and stochastics are not yet overbought (I'm using Trader Mike's 5/3 period sto, which has proven pretty accurate for the turns). http://www.screencast.com/users/SRSFinance/folders/Jing/media/5613324a-47ee-4134-81fb-5adecd693eaa

    The market closed near resistance Friday, but resistance is not necessarily a reason to short.

    The bearish case here is that the CPC is trading at significant lows, but that doesn't mean we don't rally for another few days, especially given the fact that indicators still have room for upside.

    Gary Kaltbaum has been pretty accurate in this market and while a serious bear, he has this to say about the near term:
    "I came into this week saying the ice was getting thinner...and for a couple of days, it sure looked like it was, but something happened on the way. The market continues to defend support and I am now seeing positive divergences while the market puts in a contracting pattern. Contracting patterns usually lead to good moves...one way or another. So...bottom line, the next high volume move will win for the near term. With the jobs report and with the Obama administration coming out with another bank save as well as a sham of a stimulus plan, expect some fireworks. Where are the positive divergences starting to occur?"

    "So...another bad jobs number is out...but on top of this, accounting changes, bank saves and an Obama's speech all by Monday. Expect some fireworks. In a contracting pattern, next high volume move wins for the near term."

    Finally, last year I did significant research on the last bear market, taking focus on revision to the mean. During the last bear market prices tended to regress to their 50-week averages periodically as wild countertrend rallies burst out. This bear market is different in that it has not once reverted to the falling 50-week average as the rubber band appears to have broken and the trend is much steeper. That does not mean, however, that the principle of mean regression is dead, it just means we may see the mean readjust itself. In this instance I think we will start to see regression to the falling 20-week rather than 50 until prices stabilize more.

    The 20-week average is now in the $94 area. Here is the detailed analysis I put together last February: http://srsfinance.blogspot.com/2008/02/regression-to-mean.html

    Bottom line here, I'm not bullish but I do think that shorts should be carefully weighed against current price action and that the potential for a mean regressive move should not be ruled out here. With the CPC high there is sure to be sharp payback for the overzealous bulls but that does not mean we head right down into November lows from here. The payback could just be a bump in the road on the way up to the 20-week average.

    We'll probably short into the upside noise this week if sentiment continues to get overly bullish and the CPC remains low but after that we'll take quick profit and step back to reassess with the potential that we will buy the dip.
  • not_bankrupt
    makes me sick when editors are positioned incorrectly and post b.s. armageddon like this... BOOOOOOOOO
  • I made you sick? Excellent! :-)
  • I'm a US citizen expatriated abroad. I've lived in Italy, Costa Rica, Russia, Venezuela and India and even back in the US over the past 12 years. This perhaps gives me a somewhat different perspective on the situation we face, though I will admit up front my perspective is still clouded by merely a rudimentary understanding of global economics, global finance, import/export dependencies, etc..

    With the disclaimer out of the way, here's a few thoughts for what they are worth. If we do indeed enter into a period of depression I think it's going to be quite tricky to figure out what that depression is going to look like since I think there truly are no parallels in the US. In 1929 the US was a very different place than it is today. Despite the financial parallels that I think can be accurately drawn, I believe that we cannot discount the dominant infrastructure the US and the west has in technological advancement as well as a base of researchers that includes the best and the brightest from around the world.

    Technological advance, from my understanding, means wealth creation. Finance, by comparison, is often just wealth distribution. We are in a financial crisis that involves distribution but what impact will ongoing technological advance have on the western/US economies over coming years? I don't know and I don't know if anyone really knows yet. But just for example, what happens if a true energy alternative is developed over the next few or 10 years? I'm thinking that could have a major impact on the economy and keeps the outlook unclear.

    Moreover, the US, while losing a great deal of its manufacturing base, still has a massive economic infrastructure in place and it wouldn't take a whole lot to revamp things and return some of the old manufacturing jobs. We who are fiscally conservative won't like it, but the US can, at will print money, devalue the dollar to hell, but at the same time rebuild a manufacturing base in the US that is competitive and that produces jobs. And maybe it won't be anything like the manufacturing base we had in the 70s that has been reestablished in places like China. Maybe it will be technologically driven including bio tech, energy, and something beyond my own imagination.

    Agricultural technology is such that the US can now self sustain itself, even without imports I think. It would mean things like bananas (which must still be imported) might be priced out of range for the average consumer, but wheat and other basics would still be available in abundance.

    I think it's clear that if this does turn into a depression that the average lifestyle will be affected. The point here is we can't really guess just how the average lifestyle will be affected. We don't know that folks will be driven to shanties and/or that they will be forced to scratch the earth for sustenance.

    Remember, it's all about perspective. A vast decrease in lifestyle for the US could still prove to be much more tolerable than the average lifestyle in places like India, Russia or VZ. And having lived in those places I can attest to the fact that while they don't have as much, they do indeed for the most part live lives that are happy and fulfilling.

    Finally, I'm sure there are a lot of holes in my thoughts here so feel free to poke away. We are all here to learn from each other.
  • Lori
    Thanks for sharing your perspective. It's good to be reminded that we really don't know what will happen and how a depression could play out in our unique time and place. My husband and I lived in Brazil for just a few years, and lately I've been thinking about how that experience of living under a constant need for extra vigilance might be mirrored here as economic hardship drives up crime levels.

    I like your insights regarding our technological pool of talent - and agree that unless we have major disruptions in infrastructure and delivery systems, we should be able to feed ourselves. We could indeed experience a "vast decrease in lifestyle" that would be more than tolerable. Thanks for pointing that out.
  • vad
    Mole,

    Some ideas for the next week - what do you think?

    Some potential shorts if market is down:

    AXP - unless it breaches resistance strongly
    RIO - very overbought

    Some long ideas

    GIS - downside risk is not significant
    UNG - might still push higher
    RIMM
    INSU - looks like might be going back to 13.5

  • de3600
    http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/would-you-gas-your-dog-help-stop-the-massacre could you guys sign this if you have a minute it was sent to me and myself i am a dog lover and the video on the right hand side almost made me sick.After being here for months you all seem like decent people all trying to help each other
  • PS for those Wanna Be Astro Freaks out there--the preceding solar eclipse was Jan 26, 2009.

    Also keep in mind that the 2-9-09 lunar eclipse does always occur with a full moon. Some people are thinking that because a lunar eclipse and full moon occur at the same day that it is somehow more meaningful, they go hand in hand, every time.

    Puetz did not substantiate his "odds" calculation in any source I have ever found. Probablity and statistics are strange animals. I remember one probablity exercise that shows that if there are 20 some people in a room, there is a 50% chance that 2 have the same birthday. Rats need to know that being deceived by statistics should be guarded against. these Puetz events occur once or twice a year, Serious crashes occur maybe every 50 years--like when your grandpa barely remembers the last real one.

  • yazzer
    as solar eclipses always require a new moon...LOL, it's funny how people don't get that!
  • SSR (Not a double short ETF) its Stainless Steel Rats, prime directive is to survive, but the chance to thrive in bad times (maybe especially in bad times) is very present.

    "think or swim", sink or swim, lone wolf it for the most part and don't be easily deceived. This game is for all the money in the world, each of us only needs a small portion, but those driving the boat have it rigged, rats don't run like a herd, so "their" strategies can still be exploited.

    This loose conglomeration of SSR can be mostly invisible even if as a sum, we move $100M around in various ticker ideas. I will do my part to try to throw out 6 interesting tickers per week.

    Kampai! A toast to Jagermeister -- may we learn the ways of the master hunter, be it bull or bear.
  • Why the doom and gloom? Things are not as bad as you make them out to be Mole.

    Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to continue my weekend job hunt...
  • katzo7
    Hahahahaha. Nice one. But hope it is just in jest and not the truth.
  • chrysalis
    Okay, so I figured out what the significance of Feb 9 is, since no one here has spilled the beans. It's the Puetz crash window. Puetz studied the eight greatest crashes in financial history and "discovered that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, according to Puetz calculation, is less than 1 in 127,000."

    February 9 is Full moon and Penumbral Lunar Eclipse from what I've read, and it's also a Bradley turn date.
  • standard_and_poor
    Hope we get the downward spiral.
  • Looks like a good shorting opportunity on IYT at $60 - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/02/shorting-transportation-iyt.html
  • Everyday Analyst
    Some thoughts on the S&P "market bottom"
    www.everydayanalyst.blogspot.com
  • Susannah
    I've been reviewing charts of the Nikkei 225 during 90-92, since I think our crisis is quite comparable. We all know it spread throughout their entire economy, and even now it still isn't fixed. It truly changed everything in Japan.

    Anyway, very interesting chart to review since 1990 was quite comparable to our 2008, their market fell by about half, and the Nikkei 225 did not have a single close in 90 that was above a close in 89 (once again, just like our indices). In 1991, however, the lows were never tested. It wasn't exactly a bull market, it was just chop the entire year. It took until April of 92 to go back to the low, then go past it.
  • standard_and_poor
    Could you post some charts, please.
  • Susannah
    Okay, here's a chart to give the idea:

    http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b353/cjmsbj/n225.jpg

    The ^DJI for 1930 is also interesting if you look at it from our current perspective. It really didn't appear that bearish until later in the year.
  • standard_and_poor
    Sorry for delay, here's an interesting chart. http://www.screencast.com/t/5781GlNwxY0
  • standard_and_poor
    Thanks,I'm looking for a neat chart to share as well, I'll post it soon.
  • Susannah
    I'll try tomorrow. I've just been looking at http://finance.yahoo.com under the symbol ^N225.
  • Kurious
    this is how I detect market trend changes.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/caelicker/folders/Default/media/db71bff1-8cca-4e8e-977d-e573bb45a2f5

    i have about 85 percent success rate.
  • rhae
    Nice chart, At least it is current... I can't understand what the hang up is on old long term charts... Frankly, I have never made a dime on them....
  • PatrickK
    nice chart. thanks for posting :-)
  • katzo7
    Am I reading it correctly?
    Looks like two of the 3 signals have triggered, and we are waiting for the MAs to cross. Then (85%) down? I use similar signals but on a shorter term, looks like you are on a day chart. But, my signals have not been at all reliable lately. I also use EWs and they are not to be trusted on shorter terms as they keep switching to ABCs, or even 12345s in a down mode to same in an up mode. When we start to get to EW3 down, the wave reverses and starts moving the other way into a 12345 up and the down move gets an ABC label.
  • Kurious
    its about 85% accurate. not 85% down :)
  • katzo7
    Yes, my brackets were inserted in the wrong place. 85% accurate is what I meant, 85% chance of going down. Do you use Stochs also?
    I apply them to the mix.
  • standard_and_poor
    Could you warn us next time you get a sell signal? My guess would be after we hit 890.
  • Kurious
    ill post a chart showing my signals when all 3 have been met.
  • Susannah
    What is your #2 indicator exactly? You just look for the MACD bars to go in the direction of the possible trend change decisively? Just wondering why the possible trend change right now, you haven't circled the bars. Thanks.
  • mrekim
    It looks like #2 is an increasing spread (eg larger historgram bars) on the MACD.
  • Kurious
    If I understand your question here..... All 3 havent been confirmed yet. The only problem with using this charting style is when we go into a whipsaw. Then there will be a small amount of risk. But I can enter and exit trades with a small gain or a small loss at least until the trend continues or reverses. We have went up a good bit the last few days so I do expect a pull back weather it is a small pull back or a major one. I also use the Zero and Mole's charts to sense the direction.
  • Kurious
    i cant figure out how to post my charting patterns.. :(
  • rhae
    Yes Jing is good, but you can't scribble on the chart,,, I use hypersnap for annotation then capture that with jing.
  • de3600
    get jing
  • hindawg
    Mole, interesting pattern. I'm watching the harmonics and can almost overlay SPX. Any thoughts?

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3460/3261197827_a3e662ebe6_o.gif
  • asetrader
    I've noticed that pattern as well. The concern I have is AB didn't meet the .618 retrace of XA. From what I've read this seems to be the most critical leg of the pattern. If this pattern is developing the minimum target would be 895.
  • Fujisan
    Nice map, Mole. It looks like I should pack up my stuff and go back to Japan.
  • I've got a chart for you that's scary both ways - check out this photoshop extrapolation of one of Dennis Short's now famous charts:

    http://jadedapprentice.blogspot.com/2009/02/70s-re-run.html

    What's amazing to me is how viable this model looks as a predictor. If the SPX bottom continues to hold, we would exit the offical recession about halfway through the year when unemployment peaks at 10% but from here we eventually rally to 1100 on the SPX and end the year up slightly with a pullback to 1000. During 2010, we would reach a short term peak at around 1200 that will stick for the latter half of next year but begin a slow slide back to 1000 by 2011, kicking off a tumultuous trading range during the next 5 years that sees the market swing down toward 850 up to 1050 in several waves until finally bottoming at 800 in the latter half of 2014 when we enter another brief recession as the Fed is forced to raise rates amid early signs of inflation. We get a false start in 2015 with what at first appears to be a rapid recovery as we briefly break 1000 again only to kick up the massive inflation we had expected all along.

    Stagflation takes hold as we're forced to use high interest rates to keep inflation in check, sacrificing growth in the process and putting us into a final 24-month recession in which we finally breach 800 and continue further downward, ultimately bottoming in the 700s and reaching 12.4% unemployment before exiting even more dramatically than we did in 2009 as the 2017 bull market takes hold. After an uncertain 2018, the bull market resumes with force in 2019 when we retake 1400 for the first time since 2008 and during 2020 we finally celebrate new highs and reach SPX 1600 amidst enormous economic expansion.
  • under that scenario, here's what 2015 looks like with Keirsten and the rest of the rats, (I loved this movie)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjmnJP9dbRM&feature=related
  • maya
    Mole,
    thank you for this article, one thing you said "And I expect nothing less in a few weeks from now when we phase into a temporary stock market recovery that I expect will last a few months and will end by fall at the latest" are you saying that won't see new low before than?
  • rhae
    I have no idea what will happen... Everytime I make a prediction ,the Market is Wrong...

    so just a chart on SPY daily, Pitchforks are kool...
    using a line chart on this one cuz it is easier to see the swing points


    http://screencast.com/t/Zu5t0TdAj
  • Fujisan
    Market is always right....
  • jacksoo
    Is it me, or does this just piss you off also?
    "RBS, which was bailed out to the tune of £20bn by the government last year, will pay up to £1bn in bonuses to its 177,000 staff, the Sunday Telegraph has reported." These tossers have made personal fortunes over the last few years that would make Midas blush - Gov of the world are mortgaging our futures saving their arse and they're still stuffing their pockets. What the hell is going on?

    When there is this much money at stake you can bet your bottom dollar that lying and cheating will be par for the course. And further, when you're all involved who the hell is going to raise the alarm and kill this golden goose.

    "A ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND executive who led its investments into “toxic” sub-prime loans was paid close to £40m in just three years, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    Jay Levine, 47, was the bank’s highest-paid employee, earning almost four times more than former chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin.

    Levine, who ran the group’s American investment bank RBS Greenwich Capital, received the bumper pay deals over 2005, 2006 and 2007, according to sources close to the bank.

    His pay has never been disclosed since he was not a main-board director. The pay deals came as the bank ramped up its exposures to sub-prime mortgages, asset-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). "
  • Hey !! The map is in french !! Vive la France !! :p
  • Anyboby seeing the "M" chart pattern on the monthly chart of the $SPX ?????

    http://etfstocks.typepad.com/

    Comments ??
  • jacksoo
    Yeah - I posted on this earlier in the week - from memory I think the calc I did showed bottom around 370 area - question of course is when?

    Original Post and feedback from Zig:


    6 days ago
    in Saturday Comment Cleaner on evilspeculator
    G'day all. Re-post from last night: Mole would love your feedback on this pattern:

    " I've been researching the possible 'M" pattern clear on long time SPX. From data I can gather to interpret this pattern you take the value at trough (768 Oct 02) from highest point (1576 Oct 07) divide this number by 2 (404) take this from trough (768-404) to get bottom. Result: SPX at 364. Highs mid 1990's were about 368 for reference. Feedback welcome.

    * Reblog
    * Jump to »

    1 reply
    ZigZag's picture
    ZigZag Hi Jacksoo,

    That "M" pattern would be about where the low is on my orange pitchfork. http://tinyurl.com/ad7rlm

    I think your AAPL might have started the C wave down. http://tinyurl.com/b3mwyv

    I'm off to watch the super bowl. Go Steelers!
  • "I'm off to watch the super bowl. Go Steelers!"

    Are you writing this from the past?
  • jacksoo
    I attached a re-post from last week (Sunday to be exact)
  • I think sometimes in Elliot Wave, it is easy to lose sight of the forest for all the damn trees in the way. I prefer to look at weekly charts for the clarity. The way I see it, the strong price action this week has pushed the price oscillator higher, which nicely compliments the buy signal on the CCI from December.

    If this is a C wave corrective advance, I think we are looking at 1000 minimum come mid March, to perhaps 1090 by mid April which lines up nicely with a cluster of cycle dates. That will the time frame I am looking for to load up on June SPY puts.

    http://screencast.com/t/Xgbp2uGzEcM
  • victorberry
    This agrees with a fill of the early October gap in SPY at 105-110. It remains to be seen whether it's a half fill of the gap or a total fill of the gap with some overshoot. And of course I guess it remains to be seen whether it occurs two months from now or two years from now.
  • fuzzygreysocks
    Hey, Duuuuuude!

    What if $SPX is still in B wave?
    Bench of death!
  • Hey, you are right.....we have some overhead resistance to get through before this will play out. We would first need to see a weekly close above 885. Then, we must get through the January reaction high of 942. If 885 gives way, I believe 942 will also. The oscillators are giving me a lot of confidence right now. I would like to see what Moles chart would say on a weekly basis.
  • fuzzygreysocks
    Rockin'!
  • workdog
    I agree. A 38% retracement of wave 3 takes us to around 1,000.
  • jacksoo
    For those that use TOS - the new version (Desktop App) has been re-jigged quite a lot. Strongly suggest you take a look and get acquainted with it now rather than in th heat of the battle Monday. Also noticing several problems with the new version - notably in the Analyze tab when trying to re-size chart add new test entries etc - just not working correctly - and I've deleted and redownloaded!!!
  • slartybardfast
    Thanks for the heads-up. Looks like quite a few changes. I can't even find prophet charts now, for example (no tab for that).
  • MrBill
    The Prophet charts don't have a tab by themselves anymore. But they are still there - click on the 'Charts' tab, and then look for the word 'Prophet' right next to the word 'Charts' in the upper left.
  • slartybardfast
    OK, I found Prophet now, it is a kind of sub-tab. Definitely has been a lot of changes.
  • mrekim
    I seem to have lost all drawings on my charts too. There's no going back either. If it's possible to wait for the next release that might be a good idea.
  • jacksoo
    I've spoken with their tech guys and they're looking into the issues. Problem with waiting is that I use the Analyze function a lot and its quite pivotal for what I do.
  • TOS features are becoming more and more marketing driven. None of the serious issues are being addressed and they keep changing things around because they think they have to.

    Just leave the way it fucking it is now and add the features folks are asking for.
  • jacksoo
    agree - looks like a bward step at the moment.
  • Glad I always play with TOS on the day after release, new cosmetic changes are not to my liking - it feels like it was "dumbified" for newcoming AMTD users - oh well.
    Tabs changes are stinky and take valuable display property for no good reason, re-size windows in grid useless and fatter gray bars take yet another chunk of extra space, none of real needs has been addressed, OCO single leg replace is cool thou.
    Glad I have multiple grids and I learned to "save grids as" every time I put a new line on the chart - saved my b..t.
    What concerns me most of all is that data rate has been dropping steadily last few months - it will be a complete disaster when 7Mil AMTd wannabees will jump on that ship....

  • mrekim
    So, If I go to a backup and load the older version of TOS and do "save grids as" I will get all my trend lines, etc. back?

    Do I have do save one for every symbol with a drawing?
  • PLUS - the daily TICK chart is still broken in TOS (check it out). Have been complaining about that for 5 months now and they promised me they would fix it several times now.

    Seriously, NinjaTrader starts to look better and better for charting.
  • Randy Harris
    Here's a nice TICK script that I've been using in TOS.

    http://thinkscripter.wordpress.com/2009/01/24/tick-indicator/
  • Very nice, Randy - but it won't help us if the daily TICK source data is broken.
  • There is no question that the US is in deep shit and things will get far worse. But, I can't be to concerned about that right now, what I need to be concerned with is what will the schizophrenic and irrational market do on Monday, then on Tuesday. Not meaning to flame your excellent post, but as traders timing is frickin everything. The stupidity of people will never cease to amaze me. Friday is a perfect example of irrational exuberance.

    I agree that we need to bank as much coin as possible ASAP, maximizing returns involves taking calculated risks, which involves assumptions regarding market timing. therefore, the psychology of the market, no matter how psychotic must be considered.
  • One of my favorite expressions: If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

    I think it's fair to every once in a while spent a day or two considering your long term plan. You do have a plan, right? If not, don't feel bad - a majority the people on this planet only live from one day to the next without giving any thought as to where they want to be 10 years down the line.

    I spend 50% of my time planning my actions for the next month, 40% planning my actions for the next 12 months, and 10% of my time planning for my retirement.
  • I agree, that's why I was able to retire at 48. I was speaking in the context of trading this choppy environment and how we all know the likely set of scenarios, it's just the timing and order they play themselves out that will dictate the winners and losers.
  • jacksoo
    Good post alpha - I agree with the rational assumption that global mkts are shot to s@it - but I was saying this Apr 07 and it was over a year before the 'mkts' stopped monkeying around (bullshit after bullshit about how the US would avoid recession) fell. You're right about timing - I've been right so many times and lost money its not true. Now, is this another occasion where manipulation of the small fry by the big fish means they get rich and we get poor?
  • ZigZag
    Nice chart Pedram...Hopefully we stay below $877

    http://tinyurl.com/c9uotc
  • Well, if we don't then we just shift plans. That's what traders do - we sail the tides that present themselves.
  • ZigZag
    Yes, always have an escape route planned...Just in case :-)
  • bergs
    Good chart, Probably will become the primary count unless we head down hard on Monday
  • de3600
    It pains me to say this as a brand new citizen of this nation - but the U.S. is toast - we’re done for

    Mole I beg to differ on this a bit

    1.This country needs this it has gotten fat and lazy
    2.I could remember putting an ad in the paper for help in 2002 -2004 people would come in and ask what are you paying?Answer 12 to start they would look at me like i was nuts I had applications from the age groip 18-24 wanting 25-35 dollars to start.
    3.Today I could run and ad and get fifty people to work for that
    41997 was a time when my frien put his house up for sale for 79,000 and back than I was like shit thats alot of money>shit today it is alot of money.
    5.People today have fogot what a dollar is they would laugh and say 79,000 is shit
    6.Parents have raised there kids starting in the early 90s to be lazy pieces of shit that WORKING WITH THEIR HANDS WAS A CRIME OR TO SWEAT OR GET DIRTY WAS THE ULTIMATE SIN!!!
    7.The past 20 years kids were raised like the were entitiled to everything and not work for.
    8.In 1989 leaveing high school I found a car I wanted so bad my father to my surprise went out and bought it for me came home it was in the driveway I ask can have the keys he said sure you can have them when you pay me if full 6 months later after breaking my balls I got my keys.
    9.My parents always taught me growing up expect nothing and you will never be disappointed
    10 You think any of this was applied to the last generation not a chance.
    11.It will be painful the country will come back we as a nation may go back the fundmentals it was built on
  • "we as a nation may go back the fundamentals it was built on"
    This nation was built by slave owners who has got elected by declaring that "all people born equal" - that is what you call "fundamentals"?
    The only real fundamental of any country is "If you conned a lot from other people and have not gotten caught - you are the winner"
    People NEVER change...
    I'd better stop right here or Mole is going to ban me just like Tim did :)
  • Fubar1951
    Sounds like my life, and I am happy for it! If you want to have extreme wealth, it is not going to be easy. You have to work for it and sacrifice.
    I am counting on the current generation. Their lack of dedication and work ethic will make me rich. I will then leave this country I love.
  • Gwahir
    They should add a chart "impact of imploding commodity prices". Russia usually is red on maps and there is a reason for it. Australia is red, too. And then there is another chart missing which is titled "economy overdependent on dumping stuff on insolvent buyers." On this one China is dark red, Germany red. If you take the chart above and overlay it with the two I mentioned the world becomes more colorful. Expect 5-8 years in a positive scenario, more likely 8-13 years giving the inept actions to contain the mess before the economy recovers. At that point in time the real issues will begin to kick in.
  • Not to depress you but the average period of a depression is around 26 years. I know - scary....
  • Keirsten
    Bravo Mole! I'm going to go vege out now for the duration before my family kidnaps me away from all of this. Hope everyone has a peaceful and fun weekend. Efinity's post on the last misdeed was an excellent read if anyone missed it.
  • I actually just updated the post to quote him - excellent stuff. I'm ecstatic to see more and more senior people frequent this blog.
  • OT, how long ago did you start the application process for US citizenship? And if you'd known then what you know now, would you have done it?
  • Let's put it this way - had McCain won the election I would have remained a permanent resident. I think in the long term there is hope for the U.S. but it's not going to be the country you grew up in - much less influence over the rest of the world and a weakened role on the global stage. Once the 'reset' will be forced on us, we'll have to re-invent ourselves and grow new roots. How exactly things will play out I cannot say, but I do have some ideas on the subject.
  • Douala
    "How exactly things will play out I cannot say, but I do have some ideas on the subject."

    I would love to hear them. Hope you post them.
blog comments powered by Disqus

    feed

      Subscribe

    twitter

      Follow me on Twitter



    spx zero

  1. poll

    • Are you holding long term black swan insurance?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...

  2. recent misdeeds

    1. One Rules Them All
    2. Petit Voyage
    3. Tuesday Road Map
    4. Clash Of The Titans
    5. Defcon 2
    6. Are We There Yet?
    7. Upside Targets
    8. Socrates Nailed It
    9. What Would Socrates Do?
    10. Shut The Door Have A Seat

  3. swag outlet!

    Evil Speculator SWAG Outlet!


    search site