Bull Squeeze!

UPDATE 3:00pm: Sorry about the outage AGAIN - I’m working with my hosting company to find a solution that’ll cut down on it. Actually, those ad banners are starting to produce - should have done this a lot earlier.

Market: Crazy tape, as you know but after the late morning shake-out we seem to be on track again. Glad I kept those March puts otherwise I’d be in pretty grim mood by now. Yen has slowed tracked to the upside and there is a bit more potential left. Let’s see if it will be enough to crack the 800 line - personally I doubt it, not after the sudden spikes I witnessed today. Institutional buyers will step in here at some point. Tomorrow is another day… keeping fingers crossed. But now I’m sitting only on March puts, so I got time on my side ;-)

UPDATE 3:15pm EST: I’m seeing those sudden spikes on the buying side - definitely institutional - very obvious. However, don’t panic - I just updated the image above. Unless we breach this channel the trend will continue to the downside. Today is a complete pain though…

FYI - despite all this monkey business breadth in the SPX is 6.4:1 negative right now.

UPDATE 3:31pm EST: We just took out 2 hours worth of down trend in 20 minutes. I would laugh but my ass hurts too much.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 3:05 pm and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • standard_and_poor
    Friday morning is a critical time for SPX :http://www.screencast.com/t/AgszMcjm
  • ponga musica muy bueno
  • standard_and_poor
    Con mucho gusto, estamos para servir. No offense Tom but has anyone ever told you (or Nick Nolte) you were "coyote ugly"?, he,he,he ;-)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSZcK48cTiU
  • It's amazing how often I awake to a gnawed off arm in my bed...
  • Judd Gregg withdraws from nomination as next Commerce Secretary citing irresolvable differences between his & the President's views. Ttoo bad he couldn't have made the announcement half an hour ago. I think this is big - another crack in what's supposed to be the dream team...
  • Pheesh
    I concur, this is a big hit on confidence in the administration. Internal disagreements and the withdrawal of one of the few true conservatives (at least in my limited knowledge of the guy) from the position. It certainly isn't giving me confidence that a voice of reason has to leave the administration because they were basically going to ignore him.
  • Kurious
    watch us get a pop tomorrow going into the weekend then the MM's will drop this thing on options expiration week.!.
  • Joe8888
    I Agree , with you, with all these calls being bought, in the past 2 months +( check P-Call ) under 1, sense November 22,...

    I do have a hard time believing they will pay all those calls out,,,But damn,,, once we get to the right price and time,, Reload , and short this Pig..!
  • Joe8888
    WOW, Looks like that Bullish pivot in time, I have for tomorrow ...

    May of arrived one hour early....Tomorrow should be interesting.we shall see if this is the start of a BIG RALLY ,,,or not !!.

    Would of liked to have seen the P-Call above 1. that does bother me..

    Good Luck All.
  • Jan
    So now we'll be subsidizing mortgages in addition to paying medical bills for mother's who decide to have fourteen kids with no means to support them. We rally on this shit? I just got it up my ass today.

    I'm taking mortgages out on my real estate, then I'm gonna walk. Tired of following all the rules and being raped for doing it. This country is down the tubes. Watch for revolutions and outrage.
  • This is not news - foreclosure mitigation has been out there for weeks. Now if they went with Maxine Water's idea that the banks should offer mitigation to PERFORMING loans, well THAT would be news!
  • Kurious
    I think most of us here took one up the ass................... And anal play isn't my thing!!!!!!
  • de3600
    Your dam right
  • de3600
    Last hours is a joke there is no ending to this spending we are out of control dow 2000 know i see it happening might take 2 or 3 years this country is finished all this crap to prop up a false market
  • Interesting you should say that - check out my new post.
  • Joe8888
    I agree, this may be the last rally , for old time sake... And then , once everyone is on board,gold comes down , we crash big time.!!

    IMO ....Of course...
  • Bob Pisonme and Maria Barfaromo make me want to puke. She acts like she;s high.. don't they realize for every bull there is a bear. Ticks me off and this tape sucks@!
  • MaxPainMan
    i wish oil would've rocketed like that........... :-(
  • Tomfoolery strikes again...
  • nugie
    Ladies and Gentlemen this is your TARP money at work. Next stop DOW 12,000
  • roncofooddehydrator
    This last hour is officially ridiculous.
  • Jack
    I think wave 4 might not be finished after all.
  • Steve
    gotta say, well timed!
  • Pone
    It looks like the govt has a bag full turds to hand the bears anytime things looks like they will get out of hand. Something to think about?
  • fucking Ben,
  • GSPain
    I believe-no support just a gut- Ben is buying the S$P with your money. Is there no way to stop the madness? Pitchforks!
  • Publius Federali
    How about we not pay our taxes?
  • DZZ
    It's illegal to not pay taxes. Don't file returns.
  • Well, I can't after this - LOL
  • Keirsten
    How about we all take our deposits out of the government sanctioned banks?
  • rosocecasita
    They wont let you!
  • ratboy
    SnP in the green now. LOL! and CNBC peeps are not even amazed by the move up.
  • unSane
    Awesome move. If it was easy to make money in this market everyone would be doing it.

    It was painfully obvious this had the potential to end with a short covering rally.
  • Marc45
    It might have been painful if you were short in the last hour but obvious? I don't think so. Everything was pointing down and only the news of a mortgage bailout of huge proportions stopped it.
  • unSane
    I was short from 15 minutes after the open until we hit 810 for the second time at 3pm. At that point there were only two possibilities: 810 would hold, or it would be breached. If it was breached, there was maybe another 5-10 ES points to obtain, and good luck getting all of them. If it held, it was clear that there would be a short covering rally since we gapped down so hard. That means a rush for the exits and who knows where it stops? So I set stops ubertight and they did their work.

    Don't mean to be an ass... my discretionary trades are usually horrible. News only drives the market when it's ready to be driven.
  • Marc45
    Nice trading! I was short early and covered far too early but made a few $$. I was kicking myself for not staying in but by the end I was happy. Treacherous market, it is.
  • nugie
    Nothing like some good old government intervention to make the shorts cover and bring a falling market back in 20 min. Believe me this was not institutional buying this was good old PPT scaring shit out of the shorts. They wouldn't want to have anyone think that this stimulus plan is a bunch of bull.
  • de3600
    The Obama administration is hammering out a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners who have gone through a standardized re-appraisal and affordability test, sources familiar with the plan said on Thursday.
  • Publius Federali
    F*cking socialism. I have had it with this crap. I am so leaving this country and let all the morons who voted for this marxist end up with the crappy country they deserve.
  • anotherone
    The mask is being ripped off. The backlash could be the chance to set things right. Or at least more right.
  • Keirsten
    Costa Rica looks good. State of the Art medical care and beaches. Our own Dear Leader managed to sneak in a health provision into the stimulus to let us all die in old age if the government deems we're too sick to save.
  • Publius Federali
    Yes, universal heath care scam. Those who succeed in life are not entitled to the health care benefits of their hard work. You forfeit your right to advanced procedures so that the losers in this country can have what the government deems their rightful access to health care.

    I know it sounds crappy but people die, that is what they do. What's the point in being successful if you get no benefits.
  • I'm seriously thinking about it. I for sure am not paying this crap.
  • Mr. L
    But citizen mole, don't you want to help your komrades?
  • katzo7
    This is the funniest thing I have read today.
    +1
  • Publius Federali
    I'm in. This country sucks. It no longer represents a single thing our Founding Fathers envisioned.

    Costa Rica might be a little dangerous though, being so close to Mexico.
  • cedieke
    and costa rica has universal health care, something you don't like
  • de3600
    I am starting to think the same thing
  • Keirsten
    Yeah, because the ARMS haven't even begun to kick them where it counts.

    http://tinyurl.com/azkhkv
  • House of Cards
    I think our tax dollars will be going to prop up the banks for several years to come. This is a long, drawn-out decline, with our standards of living going down with it.
  • GSPain
    This is trading exactly the same as 3 days before they banned shorts. Ben cannot beat the mkt.
  • Turbo Tim
    Erikd, u here
  • Blood in the Streets
    Anyone else trading Palm? Can't believe the thing was up 15% at one point today. Shorts are getting squeezed hard.
  • jigdaddy
    i wonder how many bears just coverd and how many longs that just sucked in, we head lower now. gut feeling and tyring to think like a bastard thief...
  • Steve
    no matter free money later.
  • Steve
    this game is rigged!
  • How's this for rigged - for almost an hour today, MM's weren't filling bids above the ask on LVLT:

    http://jadedapprentice.blogspot.com/2009/02/lvl...

    Of course, it's spiking up now...
  • DZZ
    Notice the MM ID = FLOW
    There is your Market Manipulator...
    USE them to your advantage.
  • Erikd
    these types of swing are relevant to the EW wave we are in?
  • DZZ
    After that if you redraw your channel, I clearly know see how you get to 8.20 :-)
  • chrysalis
    We're still in 2 of 3 of 5. 3 of 3 of 5 should start anytime now . . anytime now . . anyway that's what the e wave guys are saying.
  • WOW FROM A GREEN TO RED IN 20 MIN.
  • Hmm
    What do you guys think of DRR or EUO (Euro double short ETF's). IMO, the Euro is in worse shape than the dollar.

    From a technical POV, is it good to enter now?

    TIA!
  • de3600
    are we kidding now we are gonna start paying for homes
  • katzo7
    More info please, not near a news source.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks pared their losses on Thursday after Reuters reported the Obama Adminstration is creating a program to subsidize mortgage payments for at-risk homeowners. Down more than 225 points earlier
  • de3600
    this total bullshit
  • katzo7
    Bullshit? I think I will forego a few payments and get some cash?
    LOL
  • CowboyTrader
    I fell like the guy in the Bear Pic that Erik posted the other day ... i just got F*&^$ed hard - still hanging on to SPY Puts FEB. MAR and APR
  • Publius Federali
    Wow, Obama with another speech. Does this guy ever do any work or does he just keep yapping for an additional four years.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Ever since he took office i haven't seen so much shit going on in this market. I wonder how long the market is going to buy his talk.
  • Publius Federali
    I think it is already pretty clear that this guy is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on the American public. Change my ass, he lied about everything he stands for during the campaign and talked about change and hope. All we have gotten from his is the same left wing criminals in power and negative doomsday talk. Some hope huh?
  • El gAto
    A move over 80 XBD and 30 BKX would mark a major bullish expansion by my systems. That would mark a move back to the 950 area SPX. That would catch a lot of people leaning the wrong way. I'm waiting for that or trading with small capital to the short side...Portfolio heat levels are minimal Still reading neutral overall
  • Observer
    So is the zero kaput for the day? It's been nearly an hour since the last update. Do you know what the 3 PM signal is (was)?
  • with a move like that, do you really have to ask?
  • Shit I forgot to switch it back on after the server was down. A lot to deal with here... sorry...
  • standard_and_poor
    Adding to puts here, pray for me!
  • If you're bigtime short, just sell some SPY put verticals as a delta hedge; can recover on tuesday for a little theta capture
  • Erikd
    XLF pattern http://screencast.com/t/icesOOizoA close below 9.05 and i will stay short....
  • House of Cards
    Mole,

    Thanks for keeping things up to the moment. I did sell out half of my SRS and doubled down on my TBT, figuring any pumping of money into equities was going to put a squeeze on treasuries, at least for now. And TBT is something I have faith in for the long haul, several years out, so I am adding at dips. But I don't want to pull out of too much on the short side too soon. Even though we broke through the channel and are at 822, do you see this downtrend as still intact?
  • jigdaddy
    LOL, there go my profits in my puts again, they were on fire and now back to b/e....this is gay.
  • GSPain
    market manipulator Ben is getting all his buddies short...hell will come at the same time as the truth...
  • If that was a bull squeeze, I want some more - came into today convinced that bears would overplay their hand and see no evidence that isn't taking place

    At least GLL is a great buy right now - can't wait for Gold to kiss 1000 and drop like a stone
  • katzo7
    Look out below.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Boy what a pop in the XLF geeez
  • ZigZag
    Yeah, that was me hedging. I have a feeling it won't last very long..LOL!
  • de3600
    banks trying to throw more gasoline on the housing market is it a crime to let the markets fall and face the facts there is no money to spend right now
  • rhae
    never fails, I usually get the last post of the page... You must be out to get me, just kidd'en... Anyone interested can page back...
  • Rd99Hse1
    WILD-ASS desperation bounce! As a bear I see that as good news.
  • mrekim
    Wow, not long ago I would have been able to sell June 60 puts at 2.65 or so with the SPY at these levels. Now they seem closer to 1.85 or 1.90. Is that all due the the VIX staying low?
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    anyone having cake or death today?
  • benji12
    anyone adding to their shorts today?
  • Paleface
  • Dude. I am so defaulting on my mortgage!

    I would take a hit on my credit record for a 100-150K cram down.

    Edit: Damn. There's an financial status check. Gotta be down on your luck.
  • Guest
    I'm quiting my job and stopping mortgage payments - I will do almost anything to qualify for principal reduction. I can MAKE myself look so bad, I hope to get a FREE HOUSE out of this.
  • lol...i'm very curious to find out the details.....
    i knew they were going to re-legislate cram downs but you must file BK
    in order to qualify
  • Possible touch to 816 on ES
  • standard_and_poor
    This looks like the minor whipsaw once 808 was hit in spx.
  • you were pretty darn close with your 804 call (/ES). nice
  • katzo7
    BalaB,
    804 is Jan. 20th lows, we break that and get the excavator out.
  • Oh. I take it back then,,,,,,,,, : )
    Gotta be mindful of my short sightedness.

    When it comes to /ES, I rarely watch anything wider than 10 days.
    FIbs and RL are my thang'
  • katzo7
    On the 1 minute, the EW 2 was very unclean.
    So this pop into EW4 may be short and sweet (like Keirsten).
  • HardTimes
    Dude, she's armed.
  • Keirsten
    True that... with a can of Redi-Whip. ;-)
  • katzo7
    Ooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

    You ARE something else LOL
  • katzo7
    With what?
  • Keirsten
    Ahhhh.... {{{{{Katzo}}}}}

    Nice day we're having, isn't it?
  • House of Cards
    Whoa! Who stepped in to buy right here?
  • Brother Ben,
  • Yeah, that was sooooo obvious. This mofo has cost me more profits than I care to admit to.
  • Yux
    and me...
  • milingz
    If you don't mind me asking, what march puts are your holding (strike price?) Danke!
  • 75s bro.
  • Woolly Llama
    Found a good site, thought i'd share w/ you: http://thinkscripter.wordpress.com/

    I know you are concentrating on Ninja, but some pretty good looking stuff!
  • DZZ
    Thanks for all you do.
    AND LOOK AT THAT *ZERO* GO!!!!
  • HardTimes
    Erikd, thinking of covering around 8.07 if we get there?
  • HardTimes
    Testing action from below 8.70...
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Hear comes the pop
  • Henny
    TICK print at -1,313 just a few minutes ago - might be close to the bottom for the day.
  • Woolly Llama
    since you aren't holding any front month paper, how much more size are you looking to pick up, or are you 100%? i'm hoping for a bounce as i'm only in about 1/8 as much as i'd like
  • No worries Mole,

    I was on top of it. you should have routed readers to my blog. http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ lol Just kidding

    hehehe. so far so good.
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