Bull Squeeze!

UPDATE 3:00pm: Sorry about the outage AGAIN – I’m working with my hosting company to find a solution that’ll cut down on it. Actually, those ad banners are starting to produce – should have done this a lot earlier.

Market: Crazy tape, as you know but after the late morning shake-out we seem to be on track again. Glad I kept those March puts otherwise I’d be in pretty grim mood by now. Yen has slowed tracked to the upside and there is a bit more potential left. Let’s see if it will be enough to crack the 800 line – personally I doubt it, not after the sudden spikes I witnessed today. Institutional buyers will step in here at some point. Tomorrow is another day… keeping fingers crossed. But now I’m sitting only on March puts, so I got time on my side

UPDATE 3:15pm EST: I’m seeing those sudden spikes on the buying side – definitely institutional – very obvious. However, don’t panic – I just updated the image above. Unless we breach this channel the trend will continue to the downside. Today is a complete pain though…

FYI – despite all this monkey business breadth in the SPX is 6.4:1 negative right now.

UPDATE 3:31pm EST: We just took out 2 hours worth of down trend in 20 minutes. I would laugh but my ass hurts too much.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 3:05 pm and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

standard_and_poor

Friday morning is a critical time for SPX :http://www.screencast.com/t/AgszMcjm
TomOfTheNorth

ponga musica muy bueno
standard_and_poor

Con mucho gusto, estamos para servir. No offense Tom but has anyone ever told you (or Nick Nolte) you were "coyote ugly"?, he,he,he ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSZcK48cTiU
TomOfTheNorth

It's amazing how often I awake to a gnawed off arm in my bed...
TomOfTheNorth

Judd Gregg withdraws from nomination as next Commerce Secretary citing irresolvable differences between his & the President's views. Ttoo bad he couldn't have made the announcement half an hour ago. I think this is big - another crack in what's supposed to be the dream team...
Pheesh

I concur, this is a big hit on confidence in the administration. Internal disagreements and the withdrawal of one of the few true conservatives (at least in my limited knowledge of the guy) from the position. It certainly isn't giving me confidence that a voice of reason has to leave the administration because they were basically going to ignore him.
Kurious

watch us get a pop tomorrow going into the weekend then the MM's will drop this thing on options expiration week.!.
Joe8888

I Agree , with you, with all these calls being bought, in the past 2 months +( check P-Call ) under 1, sense November 22,...

I do have a hard time believing they will pay all those calls out,,,But damn,,, once we get to the right price and time,, Reload , and short this Pig..!
Joe8888

WOW, Looks like that Bullish pivot in time, I have for tomorrow ...

May of arrived one hour early....Tomorrow should be interesting.we shall see if this is the start of a BIG RALLY ,,,or not !!.

Would of liked to have seen the P-Call above 1. that does bother me..

Good Luck All.
Jan

So now we'll be subsidizing mortgages in addition to paying medical bills for mother's who decide to have fourteen kids with no means to support them. We rally on this shit? I just got it up my ass today.

I'm taking mortgages out on my real estate, then I'm gonna walk. Tired of following all the rules and being raped for doing it. This country is down the tubes. Watch for revolutions and outrage.
TomOfTheNorth

This is not news - foreclosure mitigation has been out there for weeks. Now if they went with Maxine Water's idea that the banks should offer mitigation to PERFORMING loans, well THAT would be news!
Kurious

I think most of us here took one up the ass................... And anal play isn't my thing!!!!!!
de3600

Your dam right
de3600

Last hours is a joke there is no ending to this spending we are out of control dow 2000 know i see it happening might take 2 or 3 years this country is finished all this crap to prop up a false market
molecool

Interesting you should say that - check out my new post.
Joe8888

I agree, this may be the last rally , for old time sake... And then , once everyone is on board,gold comes down , we crash big time.!!

IMO ....Of course...
Anna

Bob Pisonme and Maria Barfaromo make me want to puke. She acts like she;s high.. don't they realize for every bull there is a bear. Ticks me off and this tape sucks@!
MaxPainMan

i wish oil would've rocketed like that........... :-(
Jorge

Tomfoolery strikes again...
nugie

Ladies and Gentlemen this is your TARP money at work. Next stop DOW 12,000
roncofooddehydrator

This last hour is officially ridiculous.
Jack

I think wave 4 might not be finished after all.
Steve

gotta say, well timed!
Pone

It looks like the govt has a bag full turds to hand the bears anytime things looks like they will get out of hand. Something to think about?
T. Waffle

fucking Ben,
GSPain

I believe-no support just a gut- Ben is buying the S$P with your money. Is there no way to stop the madness? Pitchforks!
Publius Federali

How about we not pay our taxes?
DZZ

It's illegal to not pay taxes. Don't file returns.
molecool

Well, I can't after this - LOL
Keirsten

How about we all take our deposits out of the government sanctioned banks?
roscoe_casita

They wont let you!
ratboy

SnP in the green now. LOL! and CNBC peeps are not even amazed by the move up.
unSane

Awesome move. If it was easy to make money in this market everyone would be doing it.

It was painfully obvious this had the potential to end with a short covering rally.
Marc45

It might have been painful if you were short in the last hour but obvious? I don't think so. Everything was pointing down and only the news of a mortgage bailout of huge proportions stopped it.
unSane

I was short from 15 minutes after the open until we hit 810 for the second time at 3pm. At that point there were only two possibilities: 810 would hold, or it would be breached. If it was breached, there was maybe another 5-10 ES points to obtain, and good luck getting all of them. If it held, it was clear that there would be a short covering rally since we gapped down so hard. That means a rush for the exits and who knows where it stops? So I set stops ubertight and they did their work.

Don't mean to be an ass... my discretionary trades are usually horrible. News only drives the market when it's ready to be driven.
Marc45

Nice trading! I was short early and covered far too early but made a few $$. I was kicking myself for not staying in but by the end I was happy. Treacherous market, it is.
nugie

Nothing like some good old government intervention to make the shorts cover and bring a falling market back in 20 min. Believe me this was not institutional buying this was good old PPT scaring shit out of the shorts. They wouldn't want to have anyone think that this stimulus plan is a bunch of bull.
de3600

The Obama administration is hammering out a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners who have gone through a standardized re-appraisal and affordability test, sources familiar with the plan said on Thursday.
Publius Federali

F*cking socialism. I have had it with this crap. I am so leaving this country and let all the morons who voted for this marxist end up with the crappy country they deserve.
anotherone

The mask is being ripped off. The backlash could be the chance to set things right. Or at least more right.
Keirsten

Costa Rica looks good. State of the Art medical care and beaches. Our own Dear Leader managed to sneak in a health provision into the stimulus to let us all die in old age if the government deems we're too sick to save.
Publius Federali

Yes, universal heath care scam. Those who succeed in life are not entitled to the health care benefits of their hard work. You forfeit your right to advanced procedures so that the losers in this country can have what the government deems their rightful access to health care.

I know it sounds crappy but people die, that is what they do. What's the point in being successful if you get no benefits.
molecool

I'm seriously thinking about it. I for sure am not paying this crap.
Mr. L

But citizen mole, don't you want to help your komrades?
katzo7

This is the funniest thing I have read today.
+1
Publius Federali

I'm in. This country sucks. It no longer represents a single thing our Founding Fathers envisioned.

Costa Rica might be a little dangerous though, being so close to Mexico.
cedieke

and costa rica has universal health care, something you don't like
de3600

I am starting to think the same thing
Keirsten

Yeah, because the ARMS haven't even begun to kick them where it counts.

http://tinyurl.com/azkhkv
House of Cards

I think our tax dollars will be going to prop up the banks for several years to come. This is a long, drawn-out decline, with our standards of living going down with it.
GSPain

This is trading exactly the same as 3 days before they banned shorts. Ben cannot beat the mkt.
Reza

Erikd, u here
Blood in the Streets

Anyone else trading Palm? Can't believe the thing was up 15% at one point today. Shorts are getting squeezed hard.
jigdaddy

i wonder how many bears just coverd and how many longs that just sucked in, we head lower now. gut feeling and tyring to think like a bastard thief...
Steve

no matter free money later.
Steve

this game is rigged!
JadedApprentice

How's this for rigged - for almost an hour today, MM's weren't filling bids above the ask on LVLT:

http://jadedapprentice.blogspot.com/2009/02/lvlt-manipulation.html

Of course, it's spiking up now...
DZZ

Notice the MM ID = FLOW
There is your Market Manipulator...
USE them to your advantage.
Erikd

these types of swing are relevant to the EW wave we are in?
DZZ

After that if you redraw your channel, I clearly know see how you get to 8.20 :-)
chrysalis

We're still in 2 of 3 of 5. 3 of 3 of 5 should start anytime now . . anytime now . . anyway that's what the e wave guys are saying.
T. Waffle

WOW FROM A GREEN TO RED IN 20 MIN.
Hmm

What do you guys think of DRR or EUO (Euro double short ETF's). IMO, the Euro is in worse shape than the dollar.

From a technical POV, is it good to enter now?

TIA!
de3600

are we kidding now we are gonna start paying for homes
katzo7

More info please, not near a news source.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks pared their losses on Thursday after Reuters reported the Obama Adminstration is creating a program to subsidize mortgage payments for at-risk homeowners. Down more than 225 points earlier
de3600

this total bullshit
katzo7

Bullshit? I think I will forego a few payments and get some cash?
LOL
CowboyTrader

I fell like the guy in the Bear Pic that Erik posted the other day ... i just got F*&^$ed hard - still hanging on to SPY Puts FEB. MAR and APR
Publius Federali

Wow, Obama with another speech. Does this guy ever do any work or does he just keep yapping for an additional four years.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Ever since he took office i haven't seen so much shit going on in this market. I wonder how long the market is going to buy his talk.
Publius Federali

I think it is already pretty clear that this guy is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on the American public. Change my ass, he lied about everything he stands for during the campaign and talked about change and hope. All we have gotten from his is the same left wing criminals in power and negative doomsday talk. Some hope huh?
El gAto

A move over 80 XBD and 30 BKX would mark a major bullish expansion by my systems. That would mark a move back to the 950 area SPX. That would catch a lot of people leaning the wrong way. I'm waiting for that or trading with small capital to the short side...Portfolio heat levels are minimal Still reading neutral overall
Observer

So is the zero kaput for the day? It's been nearly an hour since the last update. Do you know what the 3 PM signal is (was)?
JadedApprentice

with a move like that, do you really have to ask?
molecool

Shit I forgot to switch it back on after the server was down. A lot to deal with here... sorry...
standard_and_poor

Adding to puts here, pray for me!
steveplace

If you're bigtime short, just sell some SPY put verticals as a delta hedge; can recover on tuesday for a little theta capture
Erikd

XLF pattern http://screencast.com/t/icesOOizoA close below 9.05 and i will stay short....
House of Cards

Mole,

Thanks for keeping things up to the moment. I did sell out half of my SRS and doubled down on my TBT, figuring any pumping of money into equities was going to put a squeeze on treasuries, at least for now. And TBT is something I have faith in for the long haul, several years out, so I am adding at dips. But I don't want to pull out of too much on the short side too soon. Even though we broke through the channel and are at 822, do you see this downtrend as still intact?
jigdaddy

LOL, there go my profits in my puts again, they were on fire and now back to b/e....this is gay.
GSPain

market manipulator Ben is getting all his buddies short...hell will come at the same time as the truth...
JadedApprentice

If that was a bull squeeze, I want some more - came into today convinced that bears would overplay their hand and see no evidence that isn't taking place

At least GLL is a great buy right now - can't wait for Gold to kiss 1000 and drop like a stone
katzo7

Look out below.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Boy what a pop in the XLF geeez
ZigZag

Yeah, that was me hedging. I have a feeling it won't last very long..LOL!
de3600

banks trying to throw more gasoline on the housing market is it a crime to let the markets fall and face the facts there is no money to spend right now
rhae

never fails, I usually get the last post of the page... You must be out to get me, just kidd'en... Anyone interested can page back...
@torbjornrive

WILD-ASS desperation bounce! As a bear I see that as good news.
mrekim

Wow, not long ago I would have been able to sell June 60 puts at 2.65 or so with the SPY at these levels. Now they seem closer to 1.85 or 1.90. Is that all due the the VIX staying low?
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

anyone having cake or death today?
benji12

anyone adding to their shorts today?
Paleface

The wider channel
http://screencast.com/t/1pPUwhXDEL
Implicit Trader

Dude. I am so defaulting on my mortgage!

I would take a hit on my credit record for a 100-150K cram down.

Edit: Damn. There's an financial status check. Gotta be down on your luck.
Guest

I'm quiting my job and stopping mortgage payments - I will do almost anything to qualify for principal reduction. I can MAKE myself look so bad, I hope to get a FREE HOUSE out of this.
Implicit Trader

lol...i'm very curious to find out the details.....
i knew they were going to re-legislate cram downs but you must file BK
in order to qualify
T. Waffle

Possible touch to 816 on ES
standard_and_poor

This looks like the minor whipsaw once 808 was hit in spx.
Implicit Trader

you were pretty darn close with your 804 call (/ES). nice
katzo7

BalaB,
804 is Jan. 20th lows, we break that and get the excavator out.
Implicit Trader

Oh. I take it back then,,,,,,,,, : )
Gotta be mindful of my short sightedness.

When it comes to /ES, I rarely watch anything wider than 10 days.
FIbs and RL are my thang'
katzo7

On the 1 minute, the EW 2 was very unclean.
So this pop into EW4 may be short and sweet (like Keirsten).
HardTimes

Dude, she's armed.
Keirsten

True that... with a can of Redi-Whip. ;-)
katzo7

Ooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

You ARE something else LOL
katzo7

With what?
Keirsten

Ahhhh.... {{{{{Katzo}}}}}

Nice day we're having, isn't it?
House of Cards

Whoa! Who stepped in to buy right here?
T. Waffle

Brother Ben,
molecool

Yeah, that was sooooo obvious. This mofo has cost me more profits than I care to admit to.
Yux

and me...
milingz

If you don't mind me asking, what march puts are your holding (strike price?) Danke!
molecool

75s bro.
Woolly Llama

Found a good site, thought i'd share w/ you: http://thinkscripter.wordpress.com/

I know you are concentrating on Ninja, but some pretty good looking stuff!
DZZ

Thanks for all you do.
AND LOOK AT THAT *ZERO* GO!!!!
HardTimes

Erikd, thinking of covering around 8.07 if we get there?
HardTimes

Testing action from below 8.70...
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Hear comes the pop
Henny

TICK print at -1,313 just a few minutes ago - might be close to the bottom for the day.
Woolly Llama

since you aren't holding any front month paper, how much more size are you looking to pick up, or are you 100%? i'm hoping for a bounce as i'm only in about 1/8 as much as i'd like
T. Waffle

No worries Mole,

I was on top of it. you should have routed readers to my blog. http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ lol Just kidding

hehehe. so far so good.

Bull Squeeze!

feed

twitter

spx zero

poll

recent misdeeds

categories

archives

swag outlet!

search site