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Inflection Point
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Inflection Point

Inflection Point

by The MoleSeptember 3, 2014

Alright, things are getting a wee bit out of control here, especially on the equities side. I’m all for letting winning positions run but the odds for a temporary pullback now seem nearly insurmountable. Given the lack of context on our daily or long term charts the hourly panel speaks the loudest right now.

2014-09-03_spoos_hourly_briefing

What we have here is a very ordered advance which climbed the 25-hour for a few weeks, with rare and only obligatory touches of the 100-hour. In the past week velocity decreased and volatility increased a bit. Note that each ‘poke’ outside the 100-hour BB lead to at least a touch of the 25-hour. We are now at a make-or-break point – meaning the BBs/SMAs are pointing almost sideways – which again means that a breach outside this range will require a violation of the recently established ‘play book’ if you will.

In plain English I’m saying that we either pull back here – most likely touching 2000 or perhaps even 19990 – or we bust higher and leave any top callers in the dust. Which scenario will transpire I do not know but that does not keep me from properly managing my positions, given the new evidence:

2014-09-03_NQ_update

As you may recall I have been enjoying a fine ride here and until now have let my stop trail at a wide berth. But after 5R in the bag it was time to take partial profits earlier this morning. I am leaving the remainder (50%) in play with a top at the 5R mark. If we drop below that then I’m certain we’ll find new entry opportunities next week.

2014-09-03_DX_update

Quite frankly the DX trade has gone out of control – nearly 8R at this point and the chart above shows you some of the steps along the way. Again it was time to take partial profits but I’m leaving a few lottery tickets in play for a possible pop  into 83.5 – wouldn’t that be nice…

2014-09-03_spoos_briefing

Most likely this chart isn’t valid anymore by the time you read this but if you manage to catch the spoos near 2010 then it’s time to tell Hal to grab a short position.

2014-09-03_hal

Damnit Hal – I told you SELL SELL SELL!!! &@^!%!

Alright, we’ve got some very juicy short term setups to attend to – please meet me in the lair:

2014-09-03_soybeans_briefing

Soybeans have been whipsawing around lately but I do like the current configuration as it’s facing triple resistance above. Worth 1/2R with a stop right above the resistance cluster (~ 1028.4).

2014-09-03_EURCAD_briefing

EUR/CAD – we can’t be sure but this thing may just break through that upper 100-hour BB. Very nice BB compression and if it manages to defy gravity I think we may have a short term runner. Watch that daily NLBL near 1.444 however.

2014-09-03_GBPJPY_briefing

GBP/JPY – there’s a lot to like about this setup, on the daily and hourly front. I’m long here with a stop below 172.7 – sometimes you simply see a setup and realize that it’s a go. Stop below the recent ST lows – and you’re good to go.

Have fun!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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