Shuttin’ Detroit Down

Unless you’re living in a cave or a tent right now (the latter of which is becoming a sad reality for a growing number of  Americans) then you probably heard that UAW stopped negotiations with GM last night. I think we all know what this might mean for GM whether either party at the table wants to face reality or not. For the record, although I’m not a fan of the big three (as a matter of fact I despise them) I still think that it’s a truly sad state of affairs when we throw trillions of Dollars into the laps of banksters and at the same time let our domestic auto industry wither & die. If only one of the big three has to seek bankruptcy protection expect Detroit to turn into a ghost town by the middle of the next decade.

I’m usually not a Country-Western fan, but this song paints the picture nicely. Plus, I’m a ‘real’ American now, so I guess I better get with it ;-)

I meant to write my weekend forecast today but was too busy coding - I’ll post by tomorrow afternoon.

FYI - index futures have been tumbling during the short pre-holiday session - ES now hovering below 816 as I’m typing this. I sure would hate to be sitting on a pile of cash right now - &#^#%@*!!

Finally - a public service announcement: 2sweeties is having a free week over at retracementlevels.com, which also means that we are allowed to discuss all RLs and post pertinent charts until next Friday 4:00pm EST. BalaB already shared some very interesting insights which got my mind ticking. Since many of you are cheap penny pinching leeches I encourage you to get your tail over there and enjoy the free ride while it lasts. Those RLs continue to be spot on and I cannot imagine why anyone would not want to shell out the ridiculously low subscription fees he’s asking for. If you are trading ES futures RLs are simply a must-have in my not so humble opinion.

P.S.: And yeah, I copied the video clip from Karl Denninger’s site - sue me! Plagiarism is the ultimate form of flattery :-P

UPDATE Monday 10:13am EST: There have been severe storms in Los Angeles and I just woke up to yet another power outage. My entire neighborhood is in the dark and I have no idea how long it will take to restore power. I’m typing this while sucking energy from my UPS but they are probably on their last leg. If you guys don’t hear from me by tonight then you know why - I sincerely hope that the DWP will have restored power by then but I can’t promise it.

UPDATE Monday 3:17pm EST: I know this might be hard to believe but I’m still sitting here without power. I am typing this on a tiny laptop and a Sprint modem, my UPS has gone dead hours ago. This is the third time we’ve had an all day outage this winter season and it’s a testament to the level of incompetence that’s prevalent in the City of Los Angeles. Heaven forbid we might actually have a serious catastrophe of some sort - this city would turn into a war zone in a very short time.

Folks, I’m terribly sorry but I do need my trading system to be up and running in order to post a thorough analysis. There is no ETA on when power will be restored and the best I can promise is that I get to work as soon as the lights are back on. It usually takes me several hours to complete my report and even in the best case scenario I probably won’t get a chance to post until later this evening. Frankly, at this point I am actually getting more concerned about not having power restored by tomorrow morning - not being able to trade on Tuesday would really suck.

Sorry guys - but this is out of my control.

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 15th, 2009 at 7:48 pm and is filed under Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    NEW POST
  • katzo7
    Mole dancing the electric slide again.
  • Steve
    that was sooo 80's, and lovin it!
  • Steve
    Dang mole, I hope they restore the power before the opening bell for you.
  • Perhaps the reason(s) for Golds continued rise.
  • Steve
    I just want you guys to forget all the bad economic news for a moment.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-2iwGeZ2O4
  • katzo7
    Steve, HOT.
    Does this mean you think the market is going up tomorrow? LOL
  • Steve
    You said it, not me! : ) But I am pretty sure what you will do if we see one. Those girls are hot, thanks to the Men's Health magazine for the mentioning years ago.
  • AA credit spreads through the roof again.

    http://thehousingtimebomb.blogspot.com/2009/02/...
  • I can feel your pain. I lost power last Thursday for a good part of the day. Though I managed with my iPhone, there is nothing as painful as trying to trade from your iPhone.
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Load up a laptop and go to starbucks...
    They let you plug in the power, and if you have a wireless, they will sell you a daily usage of "hot spot" then you are online...
  • unSane
    Buy a generator. (I live in buttfuck and the power goes out here every time there's an ice storm or T-storm, so the generator is always fueled up and ready to go, with a generator panel in the basement and a hook up on the exterior wall).
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Erik...
    Post a projection based on a futures data?
    Or is futures irrelevant to Tuesday's market action?
    I never paid attention to futures, and would like to know your thoughts...THKS...
  • Keirsten
    Wanted to share this link for those who might want to watch tomorrow.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Looks very promising...
    Thanks...
  • thought it was about global warming & glaciers <sigh>
  • /ES closed precisely within the risk zone (bottom of zone 808.25) - if even slight move up - this might prove to be the bottom for the session ( I bot few at avg 809+ at the end of morning session)
    on hourly it is a very wide stop 808-789, so it is unusable. I'd say - close of 10 min candle under 808 (if not going to be moving down fast - than 2 candles close) - would be my exit signal
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Post a chart, will you David?
    I am a visual one, and gets much faster that way...THKS..
  • T.B. - here are the charts from a little longer point of view than just a tradable bounce off 808 10 min timeframe support level.
    Charts are daily - SPY as of Friday's close is still within triangle.
    /ES weekend's move on mediocre volume will be forgotten tomorrow together with GM AUW walkout and Trichet conference...if not - daily "risk zone" points to retest of November lows.
    http://trading-to-win.googlegroups.com/web/2009...
    http://trading-to-win.googlegroups.com/web/2009...
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Spot on David...
    Looking at the futures..., we are about to lose the floor...I reckon...Back to(probably below) Nov. lows...
    Nice work....
  • jon
    Just on a personal note most of my college buddies are still in the "deer in the headlights" phase-denial.
    They won't even open their statements to look-its too painful.
    When they come to me and say they've finally sold their IRA's and moved TIAA_CREF to money market its a buy signal, lol.
    Jon
  • Agreed - all 'civilians' that I know are in the 'it's declined so much I have to hold it until it comes back enough to sell' camp.

    Another contrary indicator: Tickersense Blogger poll from 2/9 - 48% bullish, 38% neutral, 14% bearish:

    http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/200...

    Presumably has not been updated due to the holiday. It will be interesting to see the week-over-week change in the poll given the intervening action.
  • it's not about being a permabear or permabull it's about being in line with the direction of the market. These days that can change on a micro basis week to week. But any chart will tell you, overall we've been in a downturn for some time now.
  • jon
    I'm not a permabear , but I'd also note that seasonality remains very bearish, historically.
    Februarys and Marches are down 2:1 in the year after a Presidential Election. These
    Februarys are always down since 1916 when January falls more than 3.5%. January 2009
    was down twice that, 7%. Just thought that's interesting statistically, as there are some seasonals that repeat quite often.
    Jon
  • Teito
    Why is that bears tend to hang here or at Tim Knights blog?

    answer: for the same reason conservatives watch Fox News and liberals watch MSNBC.

    We tend to read/ listen/ follow/ hangout in places that match our thinking process and we feed our brain that way. We are wired to avoid pain and a disagreement is pain to our brain. That is why a liberal will not watch Fox...

    So please if you are too bearish try learning hanging out in bullish sites.... don't let your brain fool you :)
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Excellent suggestion...indeed...
    Know of any legit bullish blog with substantial numbers of following?
    I would appreciate if you could suggest a few...Thanks..
  • Teito
    hmmmm I used to know some. I will get back to you when I find them... Maurice Walker is a good one I can think about
  • de3600
    Well kinda hard to do that when you have certain bulls running around calling for dow 36,000 and evil and slope will always state when they think the market is getting bullish.I have always felt Tim and Mole just call it like Ithey see it.In fact Tim said in late nov he felt some bullishness and Mole said on his wave count it was possible to get sp 1000 but sit back and follow the charts.Mole is also always chiming in when he see the market changing direction.I see these 2 blogs as not bullish or bearshish they just call what they see and give ideas on how to trade it.
  • Teito
    I think both blogs are a bit bearish.... but they do call bounces
  • Financial Armageddon is a pretty upbeat blog
  • Teito
    that blog is like reading Revelation in the Bible
  • de3600
    zstock has a good blog
  • Hey T -

    I'm new here but over the last few weeks I've not seen a predisposition towards one side or the other beyond what I would suggest reflects current market conditions. It seems to me that most of those who post are traders seeking profit and who are indifferent to market direction or dogma. I agree with your premise that folks seek out like minded media. Successful traders however are looking for timely, accurate information upon which to base their strategies to make money. In the interest of full disclosure, I admit that I am what you might describe as a permabear (depending on your time horizon). However I would argue that is not thhe result of a herd reflex - rather it's the result of me being right! hehehehehehe

    Cheers
  • Teito
    the very good traders can go bear/ bull very quickly and avoid "missing out". You must be one of the few who is not biased to one side
  • workdog
    I'm liberal and I like to watch Fox News. It makes me laugh...at least until it fosters images of me urinating on Bill O'Reilly's rotting corpse.
  • traderchrispy
    There's a good example of one sad difference between conservatives and liberals. I like to laugh at (or sometimes pity) your side of the aisle too, but I don't have to resort to childlike rants or personal attacks against everyone I disagree with. It's amazingly arrogant how liberals love to shove tolerism down everyone's throat but hate anyone who doesn't agree with their views.
  • Squidman
    Not sure who toler is? Childlike rants--have you been awake since 2004?
  • workdog
    Wow. You don't want to have a fart slip around this guy.
  • Teito
    bad boy or bad bear :)
  • de3600
    lol I feel the same way about Msnbc and Keith Olbermann
  • Yikes!
  • WiredPirate
    Can anyone recommend a good value trading system back-testing software or web based service?
  • Marc45
    Does anyone here use ETrade? I've been using it for years and I like the trading screen. The fact that I can also do my online banking and have those accounts linked to my brokerage account gives me more flexibility.
  • unSane
    I like NinjaTrader. It's free unless you want to trade live, in which case the monthly lease fee is very reasonable. You need a data provider... I use Interactive B0rkers because they're my broker but their data is not the best.
  • WiredPirate
    I'll give it a try. Thanks!
  • jon
    thanks for the polite and courteous responses everyone
    I do appreciate feed back when so many different methods seem to point to the same potential turn days as significant
    notably recently phi and fib dates Jan 2-6 agreed with terry laundry's T theory Jan 2 date as a high
    Jon
  • My take for tomorrow and wednesday - we visit 740 bounce back sharply to 780 or so... and then chop around between 740 and 800 for a month or so and then when everyone has almost given up on the plunge, we plunge to 600 and below.
  • jon
    i was hoping to see if other matched trend/time methods agreed with hit dates
  • willc
    Does anyone feel that many are expecting a plunge next week? I sure feel that way after reading few blogs this weekend. In the past, when the overall tone in the blog was so bearish, did the indices break down the supports?

    I loaded up on IYR puts, many energy name puts, and little XLF OTM front month puts (based on ErikD's conviction) because I believed the mid-day rally on Thursday corrected some oversold condition, call purchasing remained high in front of the option expiration week, and yet indices are at the edge of support.

    Reading the blogs, I can't get too enthusiast about my puts. Can so many people making the right calls at the same time (maybe, thanks to Erikd's conviction call on Friday)? I have seen too many times that the market rallied back from initial plunge before bears could unload, because too many bear bus was overloaded.
  • With regards to IYR, things are looking real bad there. From technical point of view, $30 was the only decent resistance. The Nov low of $23.xx might offer some resistance... Other than that, from where IYR is right now ($28.xx), there is only air below... and it shouldnt take much for it to visit the teens. I am still standing by my call of IYR taking out Nov lows.
  • willc
    I hope so because I am long many IYR March & April puts. It is my biggest position besides the puts on energy/infra names that borrowed heavily to complete their M&A last year.

    IYR should go down in the nature path, but we need to watch out for possibility of any bail out plans for those names.
  • Tons of ppl do get it right whatever move the market makes.... So dont worry about that. There is always someone on the other side of the trade.. Also, as we start to plunge, bulls will pile on hoping for some more news announcement and definitely at 740 there will be some strong support show by bulls. Expect a bounce at 740... Now if the bears with weak hands start covering at that point, then we indeed might see a much stronger bounce.

    We do crash this week.... at least to the Nov lows... after that I am expecting another trading range to develop between 740 and 800 for a month or so. Erikd's scenario will unfold but in a month or so from now.
  • You are on a bear blog, thats why the sentiment is bearish. I was pointed to some bull blogs the other day and they were so optimistic that they we are going to the moon with the new bailout and the other crap that the new admin is doling out.
  • willc
    Any recommendations? I don't see many bull blogs around. I don't think there are many followers of them after the year of 2008 anyway.
  • poopsquad
    any recommendations on 'bullish' blogs that are not run by shills or retards ? I would like to a) see a well thought-out bullish case b) if there is no case, but at least people 'long on hope', feel better about being short
  • Teito
    exactly!!! That is why conservatives watch Fox News and liberals watch MSNBC. We are wired to follow the herd that matches more our thinking...
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Playboy channel is the only thing that comes up on my tv :)
  • jon
  • jon
    plus Feb 17 is 377 trading days from Aug 16 2007 low
  • there's no need to do math it says right in the article the date Feb 20

    Posons la relation mathématique simple :



    Si la chute de 1929 a été de 49,38% en 71 jours et si la relation jour/semaine entre 1929 et 2008 est valable alors la crise de 2008 devrait également avoir une amplitude de 49,38% sur 71 semaines.



    Le plus haut du Dow Jones a été 14198 le 12 octobre 2007. Le plus bas devrait être =

    14198 – 49,38% = 7187 qu’on devrait atteindre 71 semaines plus tard soit la semaine du 20 février 2009.
  • jon
  • Keirsten
    Thanks Jon. and G/L as we travel this path.
  • jon
    71 weeks from the 14000 +DJIA top and -49.28%
    matches 1929 chart from top projects time target Feb 17-21 and low under DJIA 7500
  • i thought most people agreed that a 1937 correlation was more appropriate

    see:

    http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/1937...
  • Keirsten
    Jon- do you have a chart of can link to a chart to show us what you're seeing?
  • jon
    If my math is right we get multiple hits in time and price on fibs and also other ratios in period Feb14-21 and again March13-15.
    Suggest Feb hits as lows and March hits as bear countertrend rally high?
    Any time/price guys here today to confirm?
  • Osso
    yes...those are phi mate turn dates...and seems they will be a low and a high....respectively....
  • I have no idea what this guy just said .... anyone?
  • Osso
    whats so difficult/strange...????
  • VaJim
    Robert McHugh uses multiple prior events and Fib multiples of days to extrapolate his "Phi dates". The guy digs up a ton of information but his systhesis is not so good. And you wouldn't recognize his current EW count. All that said, his Phi dates have been absolutely golden over the last several months. He keeps a running log of his phi dates and the results and I believe its been published on Safehaven. Recently his Nov 24 Phi date, which he published a good month in advance was a major winner. His upcoming Phi dates are Feb 18 and March 19 I believe. Since he uses multiple prior historic market tops and bottoms as his basis for extraplation, he typically gets many hits near a given date for determining a date. Therefore, his Phi dates are plus or minus 3 days (I think its trading 3 days). And a Phi date does not indicate whether its a top or bottom, just a CIT.
  • de3600
    seems french to me
  • Fly out or drive out to some other city ... dont miss tomorrow's trading day... With only bad news coming out of Europe, things might get really interesting tomorrow.
  • Keirsten
    Maybe using Fib time zones? WB btw! Bout time you got back here.
  • Keirsten
    Indus- if you're out there and still want the numbers from Friday- leave an anon email on here for me and I'll zip them over to you. Far too many links to post here on the blog. Make sure you type the e-mail without the dot com, I can piece it together and you won't get phished.

    For everybody else-since it looks like Mole is stuck in the land of no electricity for now (hurry back Mole!....) I shared the data with him yesterday and we both came to the conclusion that what was most likely happening on Friday was put buying on the peaks and the bulk of the block sells for the underlying(s) didn't happen until just prior to the close or seconds after the close. The rest is history as noted on the futures. I remained short from Thurs on and added some short shares on top of that Friday. That said, I'm curbing my enthusiasm until the tape proves me correct.

    In the meanwhile, I'll make a case on the bullish (blechhhh) side to stay paranoid and protect both profits and capital. Ultimately we have no idea where this thing goes, and although we can make a strong case for a crash (and did so all weekend) we have a lot of company on that side of the boat and that personally makes me uneasy going into tomorrow. It's OPEX week and since they're one day short on trading this could get extremely wild. Whipsaw Wednesday might very well be Whipsaw Tuesday on this time frame. My case on behalf on the bulls would be as follows:

    First of all, back in Sept/October/November we had the added joy of having the hedge funds unwinding, the auxiliary indicators on the charts were in a much better position to welcome a slip and slide, tax loss selling was in the mix, oil was beginning a crash, and the surprise element was much stronger. Indeed, the perfect storm. Couple that with the ridiculous current weighting within the INDU and an OPEX week. Centrifugal's mention of "meat left on the bones," is spot-on, and some of these bones have really been picked hard already. However, we're viewing that from a very tight trading range down here and truly don't know if we're about to move on to the marrow to feast some more. I'm not saying we won't get the shock and awe we'd like, but I have to argue against it going into tomorrow so as to trade conservatively to protect profit and capital. Be careful this week, they already gave us a good dose of it on Thursday and would gladly do it again. They showed us they will play an intense psychological game and take no prisoners. Our job is to not let them pee in our Wheaties this week.
  • Agree with everything you said. We have to face up to the fact that there won't be a perfect time to load up and ride the bear into the abyss. They will play their games with masterful precision this week and make sure that small specs are scared to the sidelines through whipsaws and sudden spikes. We've seen this happen at the onset of wave 3 of (3) - I remember bitching to Berk that it was taking forever and thus I had my doubts that we really were close to the plunge. And sure enough - we kept retesting support lines several times until many of the bears had gotten off the bus. Which is exactly when the big slide happened and based on my conversations with traders I can assure you that the majority of the bears missed it.

    I think the only way to play this one is to 'pick your poison' and load up conservatively when you get an opportunity. Maybe that big Thursday spike is one I missed - let's hope we get another one like that. There is a good chance that we bears will have our resolve tested several times before we get the big release to the downside. Which will come - no doubt about it - but it will probably come when we least expect it. If we get lucky we see some kind of trigger even - a default of one of the large European banks, a GM bankruptcy announcement - something of undeniable significance that puts the fear of God into the bulls. So far however we keep being locked inside that 800 channel - it's been over a month now. Something has to give and without a trigger event the bulls can and will keep this game up for a long time. So, in my mind the only way to play this is to get positioned during rips and hope for the worst [news]. I know this sounds like a vulture waiting for its prey to succumb, but frankly the system we have in place is terminally ill and the sooner we get a reset the better. It'll be painful one way or the other.

    One final thought - watch the Zero! Forget about the ETA/VTAs - just watch the signal line. As long as we stay flat we will remain stuck in this chop zone. If we see some serious selling or buying pressure then the Zero will reflect that immediately. I talking a -4 signal MINIMUM - that's what it will take to offset PPT emergency buying.

    Alright. power on lappy is running low - I will chime in later if I can.
  • Henny
    Possible gov't manipulation in the works - GM backruptcy then the miracle bailout annoucement late in the day to save them and the UAW...
  • I like the way you think :-)
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    ABC saying Obama giving GM another 4 Billion.Isn't that nice...
  • War Is Hell

    For the last few weeks I have been feeling like a young infantry soldier that realizes only through the grizzly sights and acts of battle that the war so eager to be fought was far too horrific to witness, let alone desire. And just like in war there are far too many casualties to justify any posture of righteousness for finding yourself on the "winning" side. Trust me, we will all pay reparations for this. There are statues of irony and sadness in so many places that it is hard to imagine things ever resembling the normalcy many of us were unaware of. I know things will improve and it will simply take the great revolver of time - but I am impatient. I am impatient in hearing those that feel the need to be righteous and lecture the oblivious, the ignorant or even the choir. I am impatient in those that feel the need to self-promote even in the face of such national and world crisis. I am impatient with human nature and all our inherent shortcomings. I am impatient with myself and all the irony of circumstance. But most of all I am impatient with the process - in realizing we have only started our collective journey down this broken road to our uncertain tomorrow.
  • Beautiful comment and I completely agree with your sentiment. I think many traders at this point don't even care about the money anymore. Which is why we need to take a step back and constantly re-evaluate ourselves and the decisions we make during trading hours. We are all desperate for the final slide, and as I wrote further above - it will happen when we least expect it.
  • jacksoo
    Posted on another site in response to a comment but thought I'd share:

    I still remain surprised that even when castigating the politicos in satire there appears a certain reverence. I recall the good old days of Spitting Image: this is particularly apt

    http://www.metacafe.com/watch/yt-azxNL-T3IFQ/sp...
  • jon
    If my math is right we get multiple hits in time and price on fibs and also other ratios in period Feb14-21 and again March13-15.
    Suggest Feb hits as lows and March hits as bear countertrend rally high?
    Any support guys for this?
  • jacksoo
    I've read others commenting that low cld be within the period you've suggested with bounce to mid Mch before another decline - the BIG ? is at what point it bounces this week i.e. what is the low?
  • BillyRayValentine
    Mr. MoleCool,

    I've been following Evil Speculator for a couple of months, I'm new to Trading, and with the upmost admiration I believe you are the most evil of all. I'm a shameless leech and have a couple of questions:
    - Have you ever made public the Zero's secret sauce (what's the premise or indicators you have used to build it)?
    - Besides the Zero do you have any other specific "set-ups" that you look for to put on a trade or do you just use TA, Trend Lines, Support / Resistance, Retracements, etc and make discretionary trades with these tools?
    - I know you've proclaimed yourself a Turtle but I don't know if you use a classic Turtle Set-up or not. If you do have other specific Set-Ups or Edges that you require to put on a trade and if so what are they?

    Thanks,
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Blasting has started already . Here is a clip from the job site. Expect to see more of these once we open for trading Tuesday.

    Stay tooned to find out what stock gets blasted.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-n1sDRsgas&feat...
  • Guys,

    Off topic, check out my latest post. I am 100% you will love it.

    http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/
  • Keirsten
    Very enjoyable TW.
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Everyone, at a given time is hated by someone, for some reason..., and no one is loved always...
    But the hatred only survives as it is fought against, and when faced with passive resistance, it dissipates...I reckon...
    In other word, it is sometimes the one who believes that he is being hated, that is feeding the hatred to prolong...IMV..
    Gandhi has proved this by freeing India, not by fighting with guns and swords, but with passive resistance, by being transparent to the oppression.
    India is the old country of all old country, and it is moving fast toward western ideal life of growth, wealth, and progress...
    I am not sure if it is good, or bad that such momentum is building and building...One of the back lash is definitely losing such wonderful spiritual depth of ancestors, IMV...
    But if you look at the world history, every culture, and every race faced ridicules and hatred, for a simple reason of being different...
    Chinese were stereotyped and made fun at for a century in U.S. with their early immigration history, but now, very few will openly laugh at them or make fun of them...So, Indians are not unique, nor alone in such experience, I reckon...
    The video is inspirational indeed...Man's determination, when focused away from his own ego, has no limits...and it does transcends to many who are witnessing...
    I hope, Indians are always in touch with their valuable roots of ancestors even as they move toward western ideal in such rapid fashion, for it is absolutely vital for Humanity to maintain it's sanity...

    Namaste...
  • Not too shabby.......Not too shabby.......
  • DZZ
    "here for myself I still have Zero RL working" "which also means that we are allowed to discuss all RLs and post pertinent charts until next Friday "

    Oh good, we are going to be spoiled with RL on Zero this week! That was soooo great seeing the correlation. (Now only if the Zero QQQQ, Zero GLD, Zero Yen, et. al. were available..... dream off)

    Your #1 LEECH :)
  • lisa
  • Marc45
    That was quite the bearish article. I have to agree with most of his points. It does look scary.
    The caveat is that it is a commercial plug for his managed portfolio.
  • Hi Lisa, this guy as it turns out nailed the P/E--was 18 down 40% = 11--guess what? DIA at 6500= P/E 11--I guess he goofed up on his 5,000 target--oh well, maybe more downside coming this summer.--The P/E won't change from 11. The earnings will be lower, as more time goes forward.
  • XLF is currently at around 9 dollars. My price target for XLF is somewhere between $4 and $6 on this plunge... IYR (the index that SRS follows) is currently 28.41. Does anyone have any downside targets for IYR in mind. The Nov low is around $21. It is a no-brainer that $21 is gonna be breached... I see it hit low teens or even a spike down (on the reversal day right before reversal) to single digits...
  • willc
    What data source do you use that says the low was $21? The low was only $23.51 in Nov. Too many bias bears around this weekend makes me feel uncomfortable about my shorts.
  • My apologies... the low was indeed 23.51.... I did not read the correct value off of the chart... I stand corrected.




    ________________________________
  • rhae
    IYR daily & weekly is showing a higher low... unless it takes out 25 with avengence, I would tred lightly.

    This one take the Zen approach... stay in the present... Past and Future have no corralation, just listen to the market and do what it say's to do..... AHmmmm... imo of course.
  • little fish
    you make it sound as though IYR cannot go up... I would suggest taking some SRS profits on a test of recent lows at IYR = $28. That is what I am doing. Unfortunately, no-brainer targets do not come with useful high-odds time frames. While an IYR spike down is possible, I prefer to take what the market makes available on its own timing.
  • Keirsten
    I'd probably be looking at the individual components of IYR and that might help guesstimate a lower target.
  • Peasant
    Couple of questions about pivot point calculations. Which is more widely accepted? Using OHLC/4 or HLC/3 in determining the pivot point?
  • rhae
    There are 4 different PP calculations they will all give different R-PP-S levels... Look for calculations that give closest to critical horrizontal R&S levels, Fibs, etc... for a long time I used Woodies, Now I use Demarks which only gives 2 lines. R&S

    When I was calculating my own I liked OHLC, however I am undecided about the actual value of Pivot Points... so much can happen intraday... In the old'en days when things moved much slower, I believe they had more value.

    concur with alpha
  • to my knowledge hlc/3
    Investor/RT

    An excerpt from an email from Arnie Greenberg
    Some observations on this thread:

    Pivot Points were developed by floor traders decades ago as a way to determine basic support and resistance levels in line with current volatility. They are useful because they are self-fulfilling prophesies. In the old days they were pretty much the only numbers that the traders would take into the pits with them. These days, however, I'm sure most traders are looking at many other numbers also. The most followed pivot points were based on the HLC/3, usually, not the OHLC/4.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Geeting closer to the close here e mini's making new lows at 808.75
  • the question remains does it bounce back up after the gap down open, before turning around thurs or fri?
  • Erikd
    XLF will gap down tuesday. the key level for it to hold under is the 8.70 level for tuesday. if it moves back above this level market might bounce for a day at most... then resume the plunge to the basement.. stay short under 8.70
  • jacksoo
    Hi Erik - further to your earlier comment I was one of the weak hands shaken out on Thursday (~500 SPY puts) and will probably rue it even more over the coming days. Anyway, many others with bigger problems and life, as they say, moves on. Question I would ask of you: can you correlate the XLF of 8.70 to a SPX/SPY price? Regards
  • Erikd
    look at thursday when XLF was below 8.70 at that time SPX was at around the 805 level... SPX can deviate 20-30 points from where XLF is on any trading day in regards to a weekly correlation between the two's average deviation... with an opening at or below 8.70 on XLF, SPX should be below 805 level. key to tuesday is how the XLF reacts around the 8.70 level..
  • DJ
    When are you closing xlf puts? i have those too. Will you wait untill wednesday or friday (last day)?
  • Erikd
    I am trading the "masterpiece channel" i posted last week.
    will likely cover around lower end of channel.. will post eachday with updates and intra-day charts thru out the next 2 weeks...keep it dialed into ES.
  • rhae
    Kinda kidd'en, How do you really know it will Gap down? I always try and figure the odds... maybe 90/10 odds down... It's that dang 10% that can slap ya....
  • Randy Harris
    Dude, you're looking pretty right now, good luck tomorrow.
  • Erikd
    I tried as hard as i could friday to let everyone know that I was getting the sell-off signal... I posted posts friday utilizing capital letters and every emotional response to trigger any traders that were on the fence friday to get short before the weekend...
    If you look at the thousands of posts i have posted here i have never reacted like i did friday during the day ever in the past... that should have been all the signal that anyone that follows my posts would have needed. If it helped anyone friday re-engage there trading system..and get short before the weekend - then i am happy.. because the average trader let what happened in the market thurs. trigger there emotions and cloud what there trading systems were telling them... JMV.
  • Steve
    Erikd, yes you did. +1.
  • anotherone
    I'm fortunate in that I'm massively short SPY right now. (Actually, long puts) While your posts didn't cause me to go short, they did steady my nerves a bit with the weekend coming up. Thanks.
  • Randy Harris
    yeah so far you're looking good, Tuesday could be quite interesting.

    I'm very net short so I'm cool, hope you knock'm dead.
  • thanks for your input erik, I'll be watching the XLF closely
  • Deflation or Hyperinflation, $s or gold, what say the rats as we sit upon the precipice of a global meltdown?
  • Some charts pointing towards Gold.

    http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/02/mi...

    (I mostly agree with Gary)
  • rhae
    Waiting for the Guiding Light... I think forex holds part of the key USD/YEN & CRB completely in dunno mode, short term
  • Both
    Long USD & GLD until one is determined
    (relatively small positions)
  • J-So
    I really don't care if all of the big three go under. They got "fat and happy" and deserve their fate. The management got paid too much money and operated the companies irresponsibly. The workers got paid too much money and too many exorbitant benefits. It got to the point that they could not sell their vehicles at prices high enough to pay their costs. They should go under and let more efficient companies take their place. It is not like we don't have alternatives in the auto industry.
  • Teito
    The RL tool from 2sweeties is a great tool but there are plenty of TA tools out there. I think you can have all tools possibles and you can still lose because:
    1) no indicator or tool is 100% proof
    2) emotions (ie panic and greed) can make investor do irrational decisions
    3) stops in wrong spots
    4) no risk management.

    So, any tools will work as long as you know how to manage your stops and your risk management. I have met investors who only use RSI, others Slow Stochastic, others DMX, others use Fibonacci, others use, etc etc.... and the trick of all of them has been risk managment...
  • standard_and_poor
    EXACTLY! +1
  • Teito
    :)
  • TraderTamas
    LOL I don't think I use any tools except trend lines and support & resistance.... and of course I always have stops.
  • Duuuuuude
    The sexy thing to do on these blogs is to show our charts and say where we got in, but the money that is made is in the getting out, either with a nice gain, or a small loss. Those things are rarely discussed on a blog.
  • TraderTamas
    I post my ins an outs
  • Teito
    yep, that works too.... as long as you have stops there will always be a next trade to make up the loses
  • Duuuuuude
    +1 Exactly! Money Management is the art of trading, and separates being successful or blowing up your account.
  • Teito
    correct., that is the art of trading... and thanks for the point :)
  • Duuuuuude
    I don't wish for the big 3 automakers to fail, but I sure as hell do not want socialism to succeed. That seems to be the choice we are faced with. I respect Ford for trying to make a go of it on their own, but I will never buy a GM or Chrysler again.....EVER.
  • katzo7
    Yup, just as I thought, things are getting better worldwide. NOT!
    http://apnews.excite.com/article/20090216/D96CJ...
  • standard_and_poor
    Jim Rogers take (interview) on Treasury Dept. rescue plan :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHy1YqWuKO0
  • rhae
    Like Jim Rogers, says he is worlds worst trader.. But long term correct... Think he lost a bunch on his Agriculural stocks... he is kinda like trading the 200ma... if you live long enough you will make a lot of money..
  • From my experience, you'll make money by paying attention to JR when he is inspired.
  • I had a few investors liking this trade, When I posted this at Tim knight's.

    Here’s my chart on shorting TEVA at 45.9
  • tradebetter
    Are there anyone actually signed up for zstock's service and benefited from it? Keep bragging how profitable his ideas have been in his Member Only Site, but his recommendations have been hit or miss at best. It just seems that he really pushes for his services. How profitable his ideas are if he has to sell his ideas so hard? I don't see 2sweeties selling his RL services and actually let people try out one week for free (Not fair to the paid member !! :) )
  • slartybardfast
    "I had a few investors liking this trade..."

    Well having seen the SOH post, it looks like ONE investor liked it!

    Do I have to be a paid member on your site to get your full analysis on this trade? TIA
  • "It looks like one" Except that my sitemeter clocked over 80 investors jumping from Tim Knight's site to mine--Usually when I post a trade with chart info at Tim Knight's, I'll get 25 clicks.( or It could be that TEVA is a popular stock)
    and Yes paid member's get a much more detailed analysis of all my trades.
  • El Gato
    I realize it was shameless connection mooching, but CNBC's Eric Bolling is now my facebook contact. Be on alert for twitter trade updates
  • rhae
    Yes Erikd , watching the futures... interesting how SPY futures are dropping to a test line... However, do to low volume over the Holiday, the futures could be about as active as an Ethiopian Tetherball... I will have my eye on this chart Tuesday morning... a tight pitchfork but seems appropriate now...

    http://screencast.com/t/xda81aIpd
  • Erikd
    Devil has got his pitchfork out and getting ready to do his work... nice TA read. 8>)
  • Thrownaway
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambr...

    This guy will scare your goddamned pants off. He's the biggest bear I've seen in financial journalism.
  • anotherone
    Yeah. AEP did some investigative work on how corrupt the Clinton's were during Bill's tenure in the WH. I'd suggest subscribing to the RSS feed to get his articles.
  • slartybardfast
    Holey crap that's some heavy shit. Thanks for sharing this, I agree this is well worth reading.

    The closing lines capture the sentiment of this article:

    "So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer.
    If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?"
  • Yes, Yves Smith quoted him in his latest post as well. Austria is about to blow up, which really pains me as I grew up there as a child.

    Anyway, Ambrose is a very well known figure in Europe - he's not some crackpot. I mentioned this article to a trader friend in Brussels and he knew the guy right away.
  • He's widely read in the US as well - his articles are often cited in the econ blogs. He tends to the sensational by somewhat extending facts to a (possible) conclusion. However he doesn't say anything materially different than Roubini, Taleb or others of that ilk: the problems are immense, the risks continue to expand & the window for corrective action is closing.
  • Mr. L
    And he's all kinds of on the ball, his father was a very, very smart anthropologist, so he's grown up in sociopolitical analysis.
  • Thrownaway
    Wiki indicates he's award-winning, as well.
blog comments powered by Disqus