Of Course You Know This Means War!

Our lovely Keirsten posted her Level II buy/sell history of the 4:00pm - 4:15pm market wrap up:

There’s a war going on right now - these are huge block orders on both sides. Thus far the bears seem to be winning.

LOL - stupid Krauts! Oh wait…. &@%$!!

I’m not sure if I chime in tonight - maybe if I see something salient. Both scenarios remain in play - no, that lower triangle support line is not chiseled in stone. We’ll get final confirmation of 3 of (5) once we breach the November 21 lows. The Dow already gave it up by 2.28 points - one down, three more to go. I’m actually excited about that Dow breach, this is good stuff and I get even more ecstatic if we actually close below that level. However, we did close below 7,500 - you just know the mouth breathers are crapping into their pants right now. Reason: Round numbers are the only ones they can remember.

Cheers!

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 19th, 2009 at 4:57 pm and is filed under Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

NEW POST!

BalaB

Jeezus! Just finished back testing ever friggin option strategy on the TOS platform.

"I feel like I just gave birth......To an Accountant!"

RIP Rodney

p.s. Just heard a replay of Rush's show today.
I'd say we're marching rapidly to an all out civil war.
Lets hope Intrade opens up an over / under.

Peasant

Looking for opinions on some ideas and curious how well everyone is doing with their puts on SPY. Unless I buy them at the most opportune moment, time decay seems to eat away a majority of the gains in intrinsic value (if I happen to be on the right side of the trade). This happens with SSO and SDS too.

The energy sector offsets a lot of the financial's weakness, and I'm not sure the reward outweighs the risk with puts on SPY. Also, SPY has been down the last six of seven days, are we do for a short-term bounce? Perhaps it's better to just focus on the financials and short them or sell at the money or slightly in the money puts for leveraged, inverse etf's. The FAZ Feb 65 put closed today with a bid of 1.45. I have no idea what the market does tomorrow but this sounds like a low-risk, high-reward trade. (Selling these at open is what I meant)

Also, There is an old Dow theory that suggests the transports are a leading indicator to the markets? Does that theory still hold water? .DJT made a fresh low on Feb 2nd and also made new lows the last 3 days.

workdog

Buy ITM puts and sell OTM against them. That way IV and theta destruction work in your favor.

AporkalypseNow

At the risk of sounding pedantic, if you buy options 'too close' to expiration, time decay is a killer. But, know that there are alot of reasons for change in price of an option. I usually avoid front month if there is less than about 3 weeks left, and I buy ATM or slightly OTM, so minimal intrinsic value, and only hold for minutes to days at most. It's been reasonably profitable for me. As for transports leading the charge, I have read that many subscribe to the idea and many don't. Put it on your chart and watch. Anecdotally, to me, it seems to have been a confirming indicator of market direction (I use IYT), so it's reasonably helpful, except when it's not. Kind of like this response, now that I read it.

BalaB

Don't fret about being pedantic. Some of us (me) need it.

TroyMcClureRIP

What does pedantic mean?

AporkalypseNow

Would anyone comment on HLS, JNJ or ACN (Man, i could post a bunch i'm looking at). I'm not very experienced at TA but am trying to learn. Also would appreciate any comments re: indicators used: MACD, RSI, etc. Thanks.

Molave Street Dwende

According to Elder's Triple Screen, HLS and ACN were sells in early January, and JNJ was a sell last week. I use a combination of 130dEMA, MACD-H, and Fast Stoch. They all had obvious stops as well above the recent highs.

If you are new to trading, I would recommend "Come into my trading room" by Elder. Covers trading systems - both entry and exits.

de3600

So How Much is Nancy Pelosi's Trip Costing the US Tax Payer?

Lets start with 200,000 for the plane trip.

AporkalypseNow

DOn't sweat it. Once they nationalize the banks, she'll have a corporate jet to take her, thus reducing the expense. Or, was it the auto companies....

TroyMcClureRIP

+1 for the avatar.

molecool

Cease the pigs? Creative...

Lori

[psst....it would be "seize"]
Mole, I am impressed by your command of the English language...it's hard to believe that it's not your native tongue. I am blown away by your use of idiomatic phrases and, for example, verb choices like "tease" - very impressive, indeed.
I am an English teacher/editor/translator who decided a couple of years ago that I'd better get a handle on my retirement savings. That has led me to participate more actively in trading, but I've got a long way to go. Hence, my paltry contributions to this site.
You don't need help communicating, but if you'd ever like editing/English help, just let me know (fyi...the slang for 1000 is "grand" not "grant"). I would like to be able to give something back...you do so much for this community.
Obrigada e abraços.

AporkalypseNow

Grab the Pork! In honor of the president and his spendulus package (Porkulus as Rush called it.).

DavidDT

With all due respect - who pays attention to the Dow anymore?
Broken scam index with no respect and no value?
My buddies on the floor don't even have Dow on their screens anymore...
JMHO
/ES wil go up in overnight session, then will come down to open flat/slightly up, hectic directionless morning - with move up second half of the day.
Just a speculation indeed...but as always I am putting my money where my mouth is - long /es from 777 (Yet again - just like I did yesterday at 17:10PM)
If anyone cares for day trading (not scalping) - room is open from 7Am till last man standing :-) http://chat.paltalk.com/g2/paltalk/1192843448

The world as we "knew it" might have ended, but it is not the end of the world - and "human nature never changes"

asetrader

People with $7 trillion dollars in retirement accounts look at the DOW. DOW making new lows causes them to take money out of their mutual funds. The DOW leads the market.

molecool

"Trading To Win".... mmhh.. dude, were you that kid on that youtube video I saw a few weeks ago? Some fast talking young floor trader - faint memory on that.

DavidDT

Mole :-)
Definetelly was not me on youtube
Not a floor trader (never was, thou worked at Downtown for years - had a lot of beer with traders - almost became professional drunk myself) and with my crazy Russian accent none would understand me anyways :)
"Trading to win" was stolen from Ari Kiev (if I gave myself few more minutes to think when I was about to start blogging - I would never use that much "fanfares" - I would probably call it something like: "Whatever you do I will do opposite" kind of..)
and ... I wish I was young :(
Mole - I stand corrected - you sure are right - a lot of bagholders, eh pardon me - investors, do care about Dow -so you made a good point from that perspective.
Love reading your posts - I rarely enjoy reading other people sites, especially perma bears or perma bulls - being one directional is a deadly sin in my books, BUT you walk a very fine line leaving doors open to any outcome

de3600

The media what drama "sounds" better 500 pt drop on dow or 60 pts on the sp

molecool

Don't get your panties in a bunch, David ;-) I rarely mention the Dow around here - if you read me regularly you know that. Floor traders don't care, my rats sure don't, and I personally couldn't care less - but a lot of investors do. Policy makers might also look at the Dow and pressure you know who to do you know what.

What floor are you working? How's the weather down there?

skogie1

What's holding up the S&P? Tech?

Susannah

Basic materials, utilities, healthcare, same old same old

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

molecool

Basic materials kept taking it on the chin for months - so, not exactly 'same old'.

Susannah

True, I just meant they've led a lot of advances lately.

katzo7

Well, bought 10 mar 75 @ 2.20 puts
......................they closed @ 2.71
I rich!
And I want to thank ponga girl. When she shows up, I short. LOL
Best damn indicator I have ever found.

Where the hell is everybody?

alphahorn

damnit for the last time you don't go short, you go long down there

molecool

I can head to the gym for an hour without you freaking out? :-P

katzo7

Mole, will you please take a break!

molecool

If I do certain members start freaking out ;-)

Blind_Squirrel

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29283701

Rick Santelli Tea Party Poll

maple

Thank you, Keirsten. I appreciate it.

Red

What are you reading into in that table Mole (or anyone else)? its just a time and sales shot of a 5 hour period, looks pretty typical for opex... If anything the LACK of volume on the SPY is concerning me... and the orderliness of this move down has me even more uncomfortable... its not supposed to be this easy... oh well, its been a fantastic 2 weeks

molecool

"If anything the LACK of volume on the SPY is concerning me... and the orderliness of this move down has me even more uncomfortable.."

EXACTLY how I feel - it's been too easy, which is why I have stayed out. Maybe I'll be the one missing out on a big move down but this is just weird.

Good to have you back, mate. Have you looked at the recent TOMO/POMO activity?

Downandout

Could no longer resist AZO:

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/02/una...

Thrownaway

Jesus Christ! Did you guys see LDK today?

Got kicked in the balls hard on that one! Thank god I still had my triple short to help hedge the losses...

Keirsten

The train wreck.....

http://tinyurl.com/ctl9ne

ZigZag

Here's how far that train wreck will go..

http://tinyurl.com/cn4lb5

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I expect buying at 2,000 level

Woolly Llama

count me in, perhaps i'll start to nibble at 4,000

Publius Federali

Great picture and point made. Thanks for the great stats above, with all the help you provide us on the site we might just let you change your avatar from a cat to a lion.

Keirsten

Meow. :-)

katzo7

YOU crack me up, Keirsten.

blues

Well, I'm not getting answer on Tim's blog, maybe better luck here. ANYONE know about the 0.25% trader's tax? Did that get passed already?! Which year of trading will it effect? 2008? 2009? Starting Feb 2009? or Jan 2009? Sh** I've done ton's of trading! I'm fu**ed?!

Susannah

You can read the proposed bill, it would take effect 30 days after the bill is passed, and would be charged by the brokerage. It's not something you'd do on your tax return. There are some threads at Elite Trader, you can look for a link to the bill, I don't have it bookmarked.

T.Bull. Aurelius

I wouldn't worry about it...
Henry Paulson will keep it from passing...
Big blow to brokers it will be...
Besides...If you swing, it shouldn't matter much...I reckon...

TraderTamas

"If you swing, it shouldn't matter much...I reckon..."

I got called a "dumbass" for saying the same thing on Slope.

*rolls eyes*

Susannah

You might want to go to Elite Trader to read about it. It would affect liquidity and spreads, most likely, as well as subtracting 0.5% from any gains, adding 0.5% to any losses. I don't think anyone knows for sure exactly what it would do, but if they tax everyone as they should since the spirit of the bill is to punish the people that caused this (which is stupid), then there could be as much as an 85% drop in volume. The black boxes are almost always the ones creating the tight spreads.

asetrader

Just don't pay...seems to work for Obama's Cabinet

jacksoo

Just a proposal as i understand.

Keirsten

It's been referred to committee, but no vote yet from what I've seen
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h1068/show

Petition against it:
http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/...

Insect Overlord

I didn't sign the petition...I actually contacted my Congressmen directly and told them, professionally, what I think of this measure. I didn't think telling them, "This is the biggest crock of shit copout propsal ever...the government can't tax its way out of this situation...especially if you aim to tax the businesses the President is trying to save with his stimulus package. What kind of fucking ass-backwards sense does that make?" would win them over. But it's what I wanted to tell them.
I'd like to think that DrMalaka is right. The boys with the big bucks and big lobbies will (hopefully) prevent this crock of shit from passing.

blues

Thank you very much Keirsten! I've send the email (and mail) to those bastards! but I couldn't believe only 7000+ so far... it should be far more! Anyway, I'm posting this too all the blog I visit! Fu**ing government!

Keirsten

You're welcome blues. This is a business for a lot of us, and for others it's the only thing they've got going right now to generate an income above poverty level, because they've lost their jobs and don't qualify for the shovel readies under Reich's requirements. Ultimately, they will distribute the wealth before most people know what's hit them.

blues

Ya, don't you feel like is better to live in China then here? Communist seem to be better then our fu**ing government! At least in China, I don't have to pay for other people's house! God damn it!

Red

"At least in China, I don't have to pay for other people's house!"

Not sure why you are so gung ho on china, its incomparably worse over there ... they arent just giving out houses the chinese government is rolling out a program that gives the peasants entire farms

Insect Overlord

It'll get passed since it is the means that I am working on to provide a supplement to my income to get back on my feet again. And if it's one thing I can take stock in, it's that the event that guarantees me the most misfortune is the one most likely to transpire.

Publius Federali

Don't worry man. It is not getting passed anytime soon. Remember, the banksters who bribe our politicians will not like this tax so at least we all can benefit from our politicians' corruption. This will absolutely kill the market. Day trading will be gone. Imagine buying 1000 shares of $100 stock knowing that your first $500 is going to the government, even if you lose money on the trade. It is also highly unlikely that any tax would be passed retroactively so as to effect past trades, I am not even sure that is legal but then again neither is anything else these people do.

For the time being don't get your panties in a bunch over this. It is just another dumb idea being bandied about by socialists trying to create more class warfare as they insist that only the rich trade. It's probably the same people who have floated the idea of taking our IRAs and converting them into government bonds while the government steals the current money in the account. Now, if these clowns running our country stay in power that is probably going to happen eventually but not any time soon.

BalaB

"Day trading will be gone."

Maybe thats the point.

But I too doubt it will happen

blues

No fu**ing shit that day trading will be gone! Are they nuts? They think they can benefit from this tax? You think us trader are stupid? If they implement this, all the pattern day trader will probably go ka po! It will drain liquidity out of the market! They are bunch of dumb MF!

Keirsten

Get active and get loud about it. They've haven't completely silenced us yet.
http://www.usa.gov/Contact/Elected.shtml

Publius Federali

Well California thinks they can close their budget gap by raising taxes. That's like Dell thinking they can make up for a revenue shortfall by increasing the price of computers 100%.

Remember, politicians are politicians, they are not businessmen and very few of them I would consider of even average intelligence.

molecool

I don't mind paying higher taxes IF they get their shit together but there is no chance in hell I'll be paying for fucking freeloaders popping out 14 children on welfare. If they start hiking the taxes here without making significant changes in terms of their priorities I will be moving to a different state. I mean it took those assholes 10 hours to fix a power outage on Monday - the streets over here are full of potholes and nothing works. Money is being wasted on crap and Californians are paying hugely into the federal budget without getting anything back. AND living expenses are insane over here. I do like the weather but there are limits to how much I can put up with. Fucking Viaragosa started adding city taxes recently as well - they nickel and dime you to death. I can run any of my businesses out of Nevada - would save a shitload of taxes.

Publius Federali

Mole, you are welcome in NV any day. Come up north though, the mountains are great, low cost of living, weather is very pleasant, hiking, fishing, skiing and no state income tax.

The tax problem is a catch 22, anyone who takes your money is not going to spend it efficiently as it is not his money so he does not care. Rather he cares only about continuing to take your money, so that is what he is going to spend your money on. So higher taxes will never go to anything productive because they already have enough of your money to do all the productive things necessary, they just don't.

DZZ

"run any of my businesses out of Nevada"
or Florida!
Great weather, no state income taxes, yet.
Properties are dirt cheap and getting cheaper every day.

StoneDog

I wouldnt touch California with a 100mi stick. I used to do well water tests down there for an engineering firm and the regulations on something as simple as that were mind boggling.

Insect Overlord

For you Mac users out there. (note: I'm not a Mac user, but my first computer...purchased 1 year before this picture was taken...was an Apple IIe)...

http://screencast.com/t/Kkh8kDGA3

Mr. L

That's damn hysterical. How long did it stay in the house before it moved out? I kept mine in the attic in a box. Some would say inhumane, but I just couldn't ever let it go.