Short Squeezies

UPDATE 12:48pm EST: I’ve looked around and came up with two charts I like:

Mmmmh - juicy…

VRTX - that one is stretched to the max. Could be a good long entry.

COCO - my 2nd favorite - not as squeezed.

There are a lot more but I have certain requirements in regards to volume and minimum price of the underlying. Then I’ve sifted out anything that has highway robbers price their options.

Thoughts appreciated.

UPDATE 1:01pm EST: Standard_and_poor posted a few good longs (not short squeezed but still look good to me). I like the following: RIMM, AAPL, DRYS.

UPDATE 1:16pm EST: Our lovely Keirsten posted a few symbols which I would categorize under ‘completely shot to hell’. My favorites: CEG, D, ED, GID, RTN.

Looking at the latest poll I see a mixed response - better to keep the Lite off the Zero chart for now. I don’t want to confuse you guys.

UPDATE 1:32pm EST: Someone mentioned their fervent wish for PALM to turn over and die:

That looks like some solid support here.

Check out how many days it would take to cover all the shorts. I think once this gets going it’ll be nasty.

BTW, for all you verbose rats - I’m not saying that we’ll rally right now. But when the market drops like this I’m in the habit of shopping for long candidates. Just picking my future victims- what I’m posting here is mostly for 4 of (5) of {1} and eventually 1 of (1) of {2}.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009 at 12:55 pm and is filed under Intraday Update, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • zenith191
    Palm, Inc.(NasdaqGS: PALM)
    After Hours: 6.60 0.78 (10.57%) 7:59PM ET

    I think someone got their wish.
  • GrooveDaddy
    could coco be forming a "batman looking" head and shoulders?
  • standard_and_poor
    Spx didn't bust 693, by 3 e.s.t. imho not good short term for bears.
  • unSane
    /ES sitting at 689.50 after hours, vertical drop, below LOD. The only support was the 4.15 closing bell.
  • lester
    site up again?
  • slartybardfast
    new post
  • arak0
    Erikd,

    Are your indicators still 7 of 7 for the day?
  • arak0
    -duplicate-- deleted.
  • Vardoger
    Any bears out there? I might short this. Not enough volume to convince me. ADP employment before the bell and my count MIGHT have us in (iv) of (V) of (3) of 5. I think its possible this wave extends based on (2)of 5 being a long flat and (1) of 5 not being extended. Possible downside targets 786 and 772. Lower for tomorrow but 772 is bottom of a channel. I'll post charts if I can figure out how to use jing on my mac.

    **Do not trade of any of this analysis. My EW is highly suspect and I am flat. I am skeptical of this breakout but not enough to take a position just yet. If we get to the top of the megaphone at /es 718 I might be more inclined to go short FWIW. IMO, best play here is flat.

    Please chime in with your thoughts/ criticism
  • TYH (3x technology) and FAS looking really nice for this ride up... Up 10% on both already
  • I am not sure why Atilla makes calls like the one he made today. I am pretty sure tonnes of noobs backed the truck when they read that... I want to sympathize with those noobs.. but then the greed got the better of them.
  • JM777
    The reason is that the first move off today's lows is probably an ABC. A of a Flat. And now the S&P took out it's regression channel support (for that up move).
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Zactly!!!!!!!!! It is a case of ego.
  • standard_and_poor
    Long more RIMM with close stop.
  • NEW POST!
  • asetrader
    NFLX looks like a freakin rocket!

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NbKPbFD7e
  • Out of remaining NFLX, 38.65; [BBI suddenly in a death-spiral, so that is the nflx driver today; easy game ;) ]
    http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb
  • We are now officially out of sub-700 range for a bit now... possibly till Friday or even Monday next week... I honestly see a repeat of Nov opex when the slide started on the Monday 2 weeks before opex.... I see the same happen the coming Monday with the slide starting at SPX = 770
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Have you been reading the notes in my squirrrel nest???????

    Let's hope it plays that way!!!!!!!!
  • No I havent... but I am glad that you also think the same way
  • Rd99Hse1
    THAT was one of those rare situations where I enter one long one short [qid/qld] at mid-range - then stop out the losing trade.

    qld (long) was the victor. initial target $22.70 (if even).
  • Hmm, rising on shrinking volume. Somehow I'm unconvinced.
  • I will start the comment with a disclaimer: Erik's plans have been awesome.. I myself have traded them and learnt a lot.

    A WARNING: Erik and likewise myself have been short the financials for a while now... I closed out my positions this morning though. I could have held on because a bounce back in XLF up to even 8 is not going to hurt me as i have sufficient profits. However, be careful if you are LOOKING TO ENTER new financial shorts now... In following Erik's plan, esp if you are trading FAZ and worst still FAZ calls or SKF calls (like I was), do take into account what happens if XLF bounces back to 7.70 or even 8.00 from here... That would put SKF into 160's and FAZ into 50's.... Someone (like I did) who entered intio my positions when FAZ was 40 and SKF was 150.... this *might* be okay (not with me though)... but someone who got in today... you would be wiped out...

    Trendlines and trend are one thing... entry point is another...
  • Erikd
    "Trendlines and trend are one thing... entry point is another..." i only enter a position based on trendlinessupport resistance and trend...
  • Another example I wanted to bring to ppl's notice was ,

    entering when XLF is 8.05 and see it go down to 6.84, it is easy to see it ride back up to 7.6.... Howver, someone who got in at XLF = 7.12, for them a ride up to 7.6 is going to very very painful esp with march options, worst still if they are FAZ options !!!

    I like your approach "trade your plan and do not look at the account balance.. helped me yesterday and today"...




    ________________________________
  • Hey Erik - I have all the respect for you... I do the same too price action and trend lines...

    All I was trying to get to some newbie folks was that... when the price action is *between* trendlines that might not offer a good risk-reward entry point. I try to enter/exit when the price action is close to the trendlines that I have drawn..

    Thanks a lot for posting all that you have, both technical and the mental makeup stuff - I am a much better trader this week than from 2 weeks ago, thanks mainly to your postings.




    ________________________________
  • Good advice. I'll add my +1
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Squirrel Agrees.
  • benji12
    went long calls on DRYS, PALM, RIMM. Shorting FSLR, AZO

    Short FAZ
  • Avoid calls in this high volatility environment... stock might go up and your calls might fall in value
  • Yep - sell OTM puts instead or sell bull put spreads.
  • Keirsten
    Black hammer presenting on SPY daily thus far. Careful everyone.
  • Here's my thinking on this. And of course, please do your own thinking.

    We are in a trending environment, and have been since mid Feb when the SPY broke its triangle. We haven't seen anything like capitulation yet, which I think is necessary to reverse a trend (not a range mind you).

    I just don't see this turning into a V-bottom and today looks suspiciously like 9/30 (not claiming it will see the same type of downside to follow).

    The think to keep in mind (unless you are just day trading) is that the 5-day average is trending down and the path of least resistance is lower on those occasions. If we are going to see things really turn around significantly, I think we need that fear invoking downswing or at least stabilization that involves a flattening 5-day.

    JMHO

    BTW, your warnings are much appreciated K, as is your obvious wisdom and humility. I think it is very prudent to heed your advice here by at the very least not using margin, leverage, or adding new positions at these levels. We've already made a significant move and squeezes can and do occur.
  • Duuuuuude
    Yes.....volatility is dropping and Geithner is talking yet the market is not going down................
  • lester
    careful if short right?
  • standard_and_poor
    stopped out earlier of short xlf daytrade with ok profits.
  • What happens at the 11:30 mark should be a good tell... if we make a major move up.. then we keep going up for a few days now... Friday might mark the top
  • standard_and_poor
    stopped out of es with minor loss.
    stopped out of long term and today's bac puts
  • bergs
  • jigdaddy
    big move in VIX down, possibly good time to add to some front month contracts and FAZ :-)
  • You will be able to pick up FAZ in 50's
  • jigdaddy
    what do you see in your charts telling you this? EW? price action? volume?
  • Not yet... We close in green today, go up for a day or two more... and then get rejected at 750 or 775... to head into the abyss
  • Vardoger
    middle line from yesterday on /es megaphone still acting as resistance at 704. I'm flat now and waiting for some capitulation and volume to come in. If we start to sell off today I'll put a leg in long at 686 and twice as much at 673 fwiw. If we break that channel I'm inclined to sit out and wait.
  • My call for end of the day: SPX 720. XLF 7.50.
  • Catbird
    Very indecisive right now. I went to 100% cash Friday after making nice profits in FAZ. When the market gapped down at the open yesterday, I didn't short anymore because I figured "A snap-back just HAS to be coming any second now."

    Of course, it never did.

    And we've been (more or less) motionless since the close yesterday. So what to do? By all rights, SOME kind of snap-back should be coming, even just for one day. But I don't have the nerve to go long anything. At the same time, I don't have the balls to short anything until I get some kind of price pull-back. FAZ at $70 would be a much more attractive buy. Will we get it?
  • Erikd
    great time / level to apply shorts. nice tight stop es715 excellent risk/reward..
  • arak0
    short es 715 or is 715 is the stop?
  • Erikd
    stop level is E/S715
  • jigdaddy
    is that also your own exit as well? gracias!
  • Erikd
    no, but for the more conservative trader that is a good place for one to set one today for this trade.
  • arak0
    did you mean get on the FAZ bandwagon or the ES bandwagon?
  • Erikd
    either
  • Douala
    Erikd

    If you ever see me BITCH SLAP ME for listening to *$^&( MyLifeMyTrade warning about FAZ maybe going to 50. It was dropping and I bail taking a nice size loss. Then the damn thing turn and is heading up. HE POST POST POST and says *$#@^* ... I should of heeded your post only. DAMN AM I PISSED...
  • Erikd
    i just hoped you got all in short before the close today... are you and jigdaddy related.. to much knee jerking stick to the plan the plan the plan. and i am not talking about fantasy island..
  • Douala
    Hello Prophet

    Sorry to say I didn't get back into any shorts after selling FAZ [Tuesday] at a nice lost because of the ramblings of MyLifeMyTrade stupid post.

    No... I am not related to jigdaddy ... he appears to be doing better than me.... wish I was related to him... so he could throw some $$$ my way...

    So ErikD it is Wednesday morning... do you think I should reenter short today? If so at what level and do you have a favorite one I should stick with like FAZ or QID?

    Hope you see this... thanks as always for all that you do...
  • jigdaddy
    LMFAO!!!!! i'm all in short b4 close. every penny i have!
  • Erikd
    then you will have made up for all your loses you might of had tomorrow....
  • jigdaddy
    I've made little mistakes but even so I am up crazy, now I just need
    to fine tune myself and stick to the plan, the plan, the plan!!! And
    of I do so, I hope to retire soon :-)
  • Artrader
    lol, I know the feeling, I am thinking I need one mentor and should unfollow everyone else. Erikd your the best I've seen, no pressure guy. lol
  • de3600
    SPX may be down 20-30 or even 50 points in the next hour or two and I suggest everyone to use extra caution. It is hard to spot a climax bottom before it happens so we will likely know after it is printed or during the event at best.


    HUGE BALLS ON THAT CALL GOD BLESS EM IF IT HAPPEN I AM SITTING OUT
  • katzo7
    You need to attribute where this is from.
  • nyse
    xtrends
  • Jonny
    Atilla Demiray (xTrends) is predicting an imminent big move down. He's been VERY good with these in the past.
  • fadethetrend
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    Really - a big move down in a bear market? How strange.
  • He has said so at least thrice in past two weeks... did not materialize... In fact the opposite happened on those occasions. We might see the same here...

    Also, he plays futures... so he can sit and wait... ppl who follow his proclaimations and play options end up losing a ton because of time decay.
  • lester
    does that mean today?
  • Jonny
    xtrends.blogspot.com

    He is calling for it today, but I have seen it carry over. Rarely wrong about this kind of call.
  • Exiled
    Actually, he is frequently wrong about this kind of call. I'm not bashing... respect his analysis and the site but he was calling for an "imminent" crash all of December as well.

    Market may well crash but I don't put a lot of faith in Atilla's hourly predictions and certainly don't trade based on them.

    Do your own analysis... I think Atilla is short from SP 840 so he can afford to sit tight.
  • JM777
    S&P500 Cash could just have completed a Regular Flat-formation upwards. Suggests move downwards now or soon. To new lows.
  • JM777
    I've now registered as JM777, btw.
  • Pone
    XLF- Current push has much less Volume than previous- Looks like Overall market pulling it up.
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Main Engines Start, prepare for SRB Ignition!!
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Mr. Dinner...
    Where is Bov. these days?
    He just went "Poof!."
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Have not seen him again. Mole even featured his vacation photo the other
    day.

    Squirrel Melts?
  • T.Bull. Aurelius
    Well done with rosemary please...
    Having problem w/ game smell.....
  • If we close down today, odds are overwhelming the next day will be up.
  • unSane
    the odds are 50:50
  • uhhhh....statistically speaking they're not.

    Try 97.54
  • unSane
    The sample size of this many down days in a row is not big enough to justify statistical predictions of that nature.

    50:50 dude.
  • p.s. The sample size used in the statistics I provided are greater than 50 years. Much more than a few days I would say.

    But to each his own.
  • unSane
    No, you don't understand. There haven't been enough occurrences of this many down days in a row during those 50 years to justify an estimate of the probability.

    Trying to use stats in this way is a REALLY GOOD WAY TO LOSE MONEY.
  • I hear ya.....I hear ya....
  • Buying NFLX for long trade (1-3 days, depending)
  • BBI dying - must be the reason for NFLX rip
  • ok, sold my smaller, 2nd tranche of NFLX 37.38....too far too fast
  • NFLX getting silly now - makes me want to sell the rip, but <6% of portfolio and was trying to get to ~10% and missed...so i;ll just hang w original plan
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    I have a feeling their is going to be a big move. Stay tooned.Hold your teddy bears tight.
  • standard_and_poor
    need 693 by 3 pm e.s.t. in spx.
  • Here comes the mother of all squeezes
  • Vardoger
    no volume. shakeout imo
  • mother of all FAZ buying opps
  • katzo7
    I've been loading up each time it drops.
  • Squidman
    added SRS calls
  • Bears should cover now... and look to reload in a day or two....
  • moneyfarm
    here are some bounce candidates:

    ACN, CHKP, MOS, MYGN, NAV, NFLX, POT, RIMM, STAR

    I haven't acted on any of these yet, but watching. The Ag group in general is showing strength.
  • look at the fight between bulls and bears.
  • Erikd
    my indicators are 7 for 7 today so far, this will make 2 days in a row if the EOD confirms. i will update blog at 3:50 est with EOD confirmation.
  • wex
    may I ask for your blog site url
  • cool cool!
  • standard_and_poor
    Starting to buy rimm, for very short term trade.
  • 4 more ticks to go on /ES and we are in for some fireworks.
  • Keirsten
    Quick screen shot on SPY blocks at this level:
    http://tinyurl.com/als89m
  • seems like there are alot of block buys...
  • Keirsten
    Almost even steven on the A/D volume at this very minute, NYSE
  • Vardoger
    ERX Mar 20 calls when we see some capitulation.
  • Just picked up some May puts on RNT. This one couldn''t break the 200 day MA or the 30 day MA. Look out below!
  • anon
    what an idiot! The shortsqueeze website gives you data from 15 days or more than that. Usually NASDAQ releases that data every 15 days. It is not current.
  • Keirsten
    Read again on their web site

    "Members receive short data 1 - 3 days before NASDAQ's publication release date"
  • I'm a member - so, those screen grabs are up to date.

    Thanks for calling me names - anon.
  • PALM has a very strong ST score per/ FusionIQ, moderate IT but piss poor LT
    Currently shows a 6/10 Short Interest Score....

    COCO is off the charts for a short squeeze play..Overwhelming ST, IT & LT potential...Nice find Ms. K!
  • Keirsten
    Yeah, it was his find. Note how I let that slide though until I was outted? :-P LOL
  • 'meh....Mole gets a lot of praise as it is..... : ) (j/k)
    I wish I had a photo of Mole. He would be very appropriate choice for to replace Kanye in this photo

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v374/beth_yea...

    LOL
  • You might want to explain those acronyms to the noobs.
  • ST = Short Term
    IT = Intermediate Term
    LT = Long Term

    You request, I provide
  • Actually, COCO was my find :-P
  • asetrader
    How bout some credit for PALM? lol
  • Jan
    I've been watching the 13/34 EMA crossover on ES over the past two weeks. It seems to be a very telling indicator. Add in a little 3 day EMA for some cushion.

    If anyone has ever used this I would love your input. Seems to work on all time frames.
  • Douala
    Jan

    John Murphy of Stockcharts.com is a big fan of EMA (13,34) as an indicator of trend reversal [especially on the wk charts]
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    JNPR keeps falling now at 13.23 :)
  • Re: Zero Lite
    Ahhhhh....Democracy Sucks!

    LOL
  • katzo7
    You have to start watching the calories, BalaB.
  • Anyone having problem with TOS charts not updating correct price ?
  • Trader Jose
    Had problems earlier in the week as a result of the update they did a week ago ... had to call tech support yesterday to get it straightened out.
  • anotherone
    Yep. Tech support said they're aware and working on it
  • TOS charts or Prophet charts?
  • Both of them are not updating
  • nyse
    Yes.
  • At best, XLF tests 6.85 again and then there will be a rally from there...
  • Erikd
    trade the charts not what you think will happen. catching knifes are hurtful
  • Yes it is.... Still bleeding painfully from my rectum over the March 73 SPY calls I bought yesterday.
  • finalbull
    are you still short
  • Erikd
    yes
  • you da bear, i had taken some faz off the table near 81 but reloaded b/t 78-79 ready to rock
  • katzo7
    Are you reffering to me Erik? Had I held yesterday it woulda worked out, woulda, coulda, shoulda.
  • Publius Federali
    Another great quote by Erikd.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Hes King of the one liners.
  • I've been nibbling on GNK, POT, STLD, ENER
  • finalbull
    are you long now
  • finalbull
    are you going long
  • i am predominantly short still, but started adding a few longs and calls on some of my favorite volatile names, i own a ton of FAZ
  • observer
    FCX is my top pick for a bounce
  • jigdaddy
    bears would enjoy latest post at xtrends...
  • Atilla is banking on the fact that 6.84 gets taken out on XLF - financials collapse and SPX follows... I was also projecting SPX 670 or below last night... but the fade from the gap up was not very hard... and we also slowed down as we approached the 690 area telling me that 690 might prove hard to take out..
  • He is right, if we take out previous low we are in for some fireworks.
  • fadethetrend
    If you enjoy jerking off to the end of the world as we know it - it's a fine site.
  • de3600
    ROFL
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    What a surprise lol
  • Pheesh
    people are already piling into PALM in anticipation of a squeeze...I wish that stock would die.
  • I'm sorry but PALM looks really good!.
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