grrr... dont like this tape one bit


mostly hedged into IWM again. im going back to sleep fuck this

Sold all my longs first five minutes after open... net profit is little over 10%.... into SRS Mar 90 and FAZ Mar 90 calls... SRS I got in when it was 5 bucks down.. sweet so far.. we will see how it goes...

Rimm is up 5% with big gap underneath, waiting for pullback.
..

lower highs since the first impulse rally....

to be honest I think people got bulled up by the gap and the MM's are gonna sell it off

edit: the markets following an pefect, tight parallel channel if you want to watch on the 1 minute

NEW POST!

faz back to 60

????????
Faz at 74.30

sorry, i had a frozen screen

Might see 740

that 710 level held up pretty well... gonna be very careful tho

Possible long plays:

PCU big inside buying
RSG Bill Gates ramps up investment

Thanks for the DRYS tip.

If we go above 710, for sure forget about any major tanking this week.

718 on SPY , could be resistance early on..

china leads the bounce again. caf prehour up 7%.
unconfirmed news says to cut stamp tax for sept, and there are "some other stimulation" to be released tomorrow. i suspect it is the widely rumored 8 trillion stimulation package.
at this point i think sectors as Construction&Material, Transportation Service and IPP may have great chance to catch the train.

Only buying on pullbacks, don't get carried away guys.

I think we're gonna retrace a bit, huge gap up like that is gonna be tough to hold and rally off of. closed my hedge for a serious profit and i'm gonna rehedge when the time is right

FTSE gapped open and is still above - IMHO a warning

The World looks green today

Lucky to be slightly net long, will probably be buying more rimm and the other stocks I mentioned yesterday as well as ES for daytrade.

It appears my call yesterday for a crash today was wrong. It isn't the first and WON'T be the last. More importantly though, watch XLF. I believe that to crash this market XLF will have to break $6.85. It may take an opening gap below this support to do it. If this is so pay careful attention to a daily close just above $6.85. This will position us to make that move AH. This is what led me to my call yesterday, the fact we were close to this price at the close.

Market is not open yet lol

Wait until Friday. Didn't you get the memo? It was posponed, Nobama accomplished this.

An air of Jonestown on another blog:

"This goes to the sword catchers, please quit trying for God's sake! Have some fear for the goodness of the country."

No disrespect, but dump to hell can always happen after rally for a day or 2 given cultlike fever for downside

Have some fear for the goodness of the country"
This is the statement I have a problem with. While I agree in principle that the day of rexkoning has to come, a
vast downdraft would have bad consequences for the world. Contrast this with Tim and Moles feelings on this decline

Or more chop, chop, chop, lower highs, lowers lows, and a 6 month drift down to S&P 450.

Mole, I noticed you added an RSS feed for your posts a while back. Have you considered adding another RSS feed for all of the comments? I think it would go a long way towards reducing the strain on your hosting company and avoiding site crashes during the day. xTrends has the comments RSS feed and I think its great; it refreshes quickly, shows comments across different posts, and is much more inconspicuous to have open at work than having a web site up with a lot of avatars and pictures. It also makes it easy to see comments on my blackberry when I'm on the train. I wish SoH had a seperate RSS feed for comments as well.

Anyway, just a thought. A drawback would be that the banner ads don't show up on the RSS feed so I guess that would deter banner ad revenue, but hopefully your Zero subscriptions are going well enough to offset some of that.

Already there, enjoy:

http://evilspeculator.disqus.com/comments.rss

that's what I was looking for! Guess I wasn't tech savvy enough to figure that one out on my own. Thanks a lot

We gapped open small yesterday and it closed... Today we gap up big. Lot of gas out there!

Are we looking at the same charts? Yesterday SPY gapped up about 1.7%. Right now it's trading up 1.63%.

I'm looking at YM 140 pts up on Futs at present - like the old days!

Short /NQ @ 1090

There's absolutely no fear in the market at all right now. after this bounce and the market turns it is going to be a very shocking wake up call

I still have friends asking me for stock advice. The overriding opinion is that stocks are cheap and that they are a good buy now.

Is it just me, or does anyone else see the right shoulder forming on XLF, FAZ, FAS etc. ?

Cup and handle maybe. I don't see a H&S

60 min, last 8 days!

stupid FAZ is going to slide w/ VIX down and no fear like you said...hopefully this is just premarket b.s.

Stupid me, just added to FAZ 72.09. preparing to add more at 67.58

good entry IMO

Ha ha, you guys want the market to move in a straight line. Patience.

Oh, you mean it doesn't do that? LOL
Did you watch TKs video?

LZR: Posted about this small float play previously. Been a wild ride. 4-10-4 roundtrip. Earnings out. Excellent. Now at 6. Worth 200 shares....of course, only an amount you can lose gracefully. This has a wild upside potential into the insane range. Lotto time.

ADP Employment Report is down 697K

Anyone have any thoughts on QID? I know tech has been not breaking down so it has supported the cubes. Will QID be the last to break down (I hope, I hope)?

Below is from Guy Lerner. He used to write for The Street and was one of the few there that actually knew what he was talking about. I've been tracking him for ages and he's almost always spot on.

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/
Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the Power Shares QQQ Trust (symbol: QQQQ). The QQQQ is our "best" performer as it still remains within the trend channel, and prices remain above the 2002 lows. However, if prices close the week below 26.98 (and in particular 27.63), I would be very cautious as we could see accelerated selling in the QQQQ.

Thanks SRSF.

Good morning all, Kratzo you around? FAZ is on sale, wish I could buy some now! Can't wait for 7:00

Yeah ur right,,,wonder how long this enthusiasm is going to last...propably die within 30 mins.

Hey Alpha,
I transferred all of my scattered IRAs into one Fidelity acct. I can now trade with. There is a 3 day rule unfortunately so it slows me down, but I have found it to be beneficial. I am doing really well there so far. I complained about the commissions and they gave me a reduced rate. They also gave me six months of free trading. Goes to show, squeaky wheel gets the grease.

i need to that too!!!!! been meaning to, but no time

i got real squeaky with td and got my trades down to $5 and my margin interest down to prime + .5%

alpha, whats your target on faz?

triple digits, i have so much of it I will leak it out on the way down beginning at SPX 685, but will hold some for a true catastrophic low. after 660 i'll use very large trailing stops

Kratzo?
Now I have suffered all sorts of insults from you from "borrowing" the Ponga to name calling. If I had the ability I would ban you, Mr. Alpha.
Remember, I know where Texas is and can find you. I'll hire that bounty hunter guy.
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
I am chockablock with FAZ. Do you want to buy some from me? I'll give you a price. And why 7 am? You doing before hours trading?
HAHAHA

People should know by now i'm not responsible for anything I type before i've finished my second cup of coffee!!!!

my trade orders don't show up until 7:00 am for some reason w/ TD

Oh, you should have said that initially. LOL What time is it there, around 6 am?

i love the idiot hours, it was going for 72 when i wrote that

Just busting ya here.

You buy Starbucks yet, with all of your money. I mean the entire franchise.

this could be an interesting day. the market looks like it could bounce nicely at the open and optimism for the bear rally will run wild. now i will wait for it to turn back before i buy any more. i was out of pocket for 2008 and had some dumbass manage my money, a guy who was supposedly a 40 verteran, grey hair and all and he blew my account up, lost millions. Left me w/ no alternative but to get back involved myself and rebuild. I have a long way to go to get my nest egg back. but hey up 7 digits so far for 09. i look at these times as the modern day gold rush. the market moves some days as much as it used to in a year. each week one can make as much as they would have in an entire year. as long as one protects capital and not afraid to take losses to avoid big losses they should do fine. the question for this morning is do you let your stops get taken out and then reload after the bounce if it's a decent one.

Similar story here except for the figures. Could never understand why they cannot do it if I can trade and make $$$. Something is wrong. Hell, they could find someone like Mole or Erik, hire them, and clean up but they are too stupid.
The only caveat is the chop zone. Lately I have been concerned that we find a bottom rally (I do not think it will be the rocket up many are predicting) and go into an extended chop zone. That is how they might take the most money for us.

when we were range trading for a while i would own 3x bears and bulls and unload one at the top of the channel and the other at the bottom and would reload starting about 1/2 the way down. avoided any bad days, and was profitable

Somebody has to lose money for us to make money...

Yeah, but the point is HardTimes, that these guys are supposed to be the pros, if one goes to a surgeon/doctor you expect them to do the job correctly.

Careful, this could be clean house day for the market makers. A story out of China and they can spin it positive for the US. I'll cover and reload if we don't seem to be selling into the rally

futures up 12. looks like a good chance to add to ES shorts.

Rant on gold and gold miners: get ready to turn back the other way for this sector.

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/03/for...

Just posted elsewhere:

any currency guys around tonight? Kemal mentioned the other day the importance of the EUR?US and a break below 1.25 - well its done that over the last few hours (spike down) now retesting the line. Also noticed similar deep fall on the AUS/US. Here's a thgt; currency moving ahead of equity decline signaling the day ahead?

ES is bouncing probably because China is expected to announce another stimulus package.

Erikd, if market gap up tomorrow, does it change your plan or you expect the market to drop from the gap up?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

will follow XLF heavily referencing other 6 indicators i track. same as always. expecting gap down based on the close today.

EOD action does make someone think market plunge big today, but gaping down is possible but unlikely at this point. Japanese yen drop another 1% overnight, hasn't FXY break your trend line? Shorted some /ES @ 700, but the panic from close disappear really fast.

That'd have to be a wild turn for the futures which are up quite nicely currently. I wouldn't be surprised if we gapped down though...

looks like you are expecting europe to cooperate with you tonight

yes all indicators are confirmed, alignment is in balancing nicely.

Thanks, Erikd, for the update.

I am still holding FAZ calls and learning to tune out "noises".. I must say, some of the noises were pretty loud today... :-)

Should I add more if we gap down at the open tomorrow?

Also, are you accepting any apprentices, seriously?

will help all that i can, will continue to post set-ups and offer insights. depends on the open. flat open i would, big gap down i would wait, unless you can set-up daytrade parameters for it.

Erikd- Currently it looks like we will open S&P above 700 and XLF above 7.00 support levels(apples to apples). May hang there a little while?

would you add on a gap up around say 705?

so no oversold bounce ... just straight down the tubes, eh?

as of the EOD today yes. very bearish signals. will change my position when the market gives the signals but for right now it is still down...

Not such a happy bunny this morning , i took 3 long at 683 in the in between session ( was a fib target ) sold them for 9 point gain , left a short order on 695 with stop above trend line and woke up to to this. Europe on a rip too. Back to bed for me.

not an expert in this area but if China needs to spend more on internal stimlulus who is going to be buying American debt to help it finance its stimulus programs?

IF China needs another stimulus already, what does that say about any hope of a 2H09 rebound in the West? The stuff coming out now about the European banks makes Citi/BOA look tame, and that's not just hyperbole.

We continue to have a downward bias and the potential to see some fear and panic show up in the markets to continue the downward move.
www.pristinetrader.com

Howdy Harmon,
(Glad I could bring a li'l chuckle to your day.) ;-)

Whatsa "SH", soze I can Fib it?
Gracias.


* * * UPDATE * * *

Just figured out what "SH" is, thanks to JigDaddy's chart : http://tinyurl.com/bgo3pj

Okey doke... so what was the time frame for the 61.8% Fibber?

ohmygod...143 comments after hours??!!! how the hell are we supposed to keep up with this? Ok, Mole...you are way too popular..this has got to stop.

Hi Zig Zag how are you?
can you please tell me when will you be covering your shorts? at 670 or lower 600?

thank you :)

Hi Maya,

I'm looking to take some profits tomorrow, or if we can hit $670. See if I can reload at higher prices. :-)

http://tinyurl.com/bpezzc

here's the updated 1937-8 vs. today graph

http://api.ning.com/files/sa*RO01KL3wE3F2CRSPvF...

Pretty cool, we'll see if we get that big dip down or not.

I'm not sure 'pretty cool' is the phrase I would use. It's nice to make money off it but it really sucks.

I was talking about the chart and the thought someone put into it.

2 positive stories out of china

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

I like how they sneak in the blurb about losing 20 million migrant jobs at the bottom. Makes me glad I don't live in China.

ABX showing what we used to call 'bottom of the page' support:

http://www.markit.com/information/products/cate...

AAA below 30 cents is startling

could you translate ABX.HE...and the stuff the link mentions....tks...appreciate

Hey Osso,

ABX are Asset Backed Securities (ABS) indeces. My post reflects my surprise that the best-credit asset backs (triple A) are now being priced near or below 30 cents on the dollar of face value. When you look at the Markit url that I posted, you are seeing price charts for indeces on several different grades of ABS. Double A rated ABS are shown as trading at 5 cents per dollar of face value, single A-rated are @ 3.5 cents on the dollar and triple B=rated are trading @ 3 cents.

What this picture signifies to me is the continued deterioration in the structured finance markets, effectively the cancer at the core of the global financial crisis.

I hope this was helpful.

Hi TON.......tks a lot for all the info !!!!! and for your time to respond......good trading..!!!!!!

Mole, should we cash our july puts now ?
I cashed all my ES profit last week.
I still have some SDS bought 78 and 85.
I also very happy with GC drop.
I'm close to fully cash now.
Shopping corporate bonds.

Gold? No way - hold those suckers all the way.

Phuckit.
Puts on SKF would be a dumb route as the vega crush would always be hoggin' a piece of the pie.

How about some UYG calls, that way the vega will goose our return rather than eat it : http://tinyurl.com/b4bm8a
Whatchu stinky-pinkies think?
UYG three bucks do-able?
OMG!
There's no market for UYG : http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/options...
OMG! Did I type in the wrong ticker... ?
No.
Goodness effin gracious. That's... sad.
<laughing>

Okey doke, brave souls. UYG <cough> three dollah calls : http://tinyurl.com/czb799

So, if you don't mind starting right outta the gate with a 50% loss ($0.05 bid vs. $0.10 ask) this li'l piggie might actually make it to a quartah +.

$0.25 sell
/ $0.10 buy
= 150% gain.

Well... I ain't brave enough ferr that.

Maybe I'll stick with the SKF puts, instead.

(And just ferr schitzengiggles... UYG MAR foe dollah calls : http://tinyurl.com/bhna7u
Could be good.
Maybe I'll see if I can turn a few Benjies into some Jimmys : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:5000f.jpg )

Why not sell SKF calls? more liquid, more nominal movement.

Looks like alot of put buying for the June 2.50 in GE.

it's trading to go bankrupt. their cd spreads (GECC) are huge.

NYSE who comes around here from time to time posted this elsewhere:

RED ALERT: Im sure most of you saw GE drop almost 8% today, but one thing that I have not seen discussed anywhere was what their CDS spreads did today (Yesterday someone showed a graph of GECC CDS spreads blowing out to over 700). Two things to note - 1) GECC spreads blew out to approx 1200 today, and 2) yesterday they started trading on points (this means points up front need to be paid if you want to buy protection). To put this in perspective, Bear Stears' spreads blew out to approx. 750, I believe, before they blew up.
Wonder why CNBC's not talking about this? Mystery.

CNBC - see bottom of page http://www.cnbc.com/id/29499815/site/14081545?_...

GE - Balance sheet look better than the other lossers like C. Some Insiders are buying stock now. With GE it may be just a show.

my read of BSheet...gives lousy situation....$705B in debt, very low liquidity ratio and a horrible loan portfolio that may be well overvalued....no way...!!!!! This is nesxt AIG...only triple size bailout ..minimum....watch.....

Insiders have been buying financials all the way down. Probably write it of as a business expense.

I don't know why we have not been shorting this thing instead of looking at the S&P. It is the most consistant line straight down. Should hit 2.50 in a month in a half on it's current trend.

Speaking of volume...look at the past 2 days on the SH too...wow...theres the piss in your pants you were
talking about fuzzy
And I know how you feel about fibs but check out the fib retracement on the SH too
61.8 right on the nose

I would consider tonights ES action bearish for tomorrow. Keeping things tight in the afterhours hasn't exactly worked for the bulls.

yes, also it's pretty much a textbook bear flag as far as I can see

I'm thinking of fondling some SKF MAR $155 puts : http://tinyurl.com/bf66n5
SKF has a vulgar habit of gapping down something awful.
http://tinyurl.com/azae86

H3ll, it might be worth it to get APR $120. http://tinyurl.com/b8geop
You know darn good & well that even if the market can't climb outt of a hole ferr sh!t that SKF can't keep her skirt up in the air for too long.
At some point it always drops.

(SKF or the skirt!)
=8-O

That's one of the best ideas I've heard past couple of days. Thanks. Must be nimble but I think I'll take it .....net yet.....very soon......

rofl thats what i have april 120s

I used the very scientific "eye-ballin' technique" to figure out that one.
How'd you figure APR $120s were a good mark/target/subject?
TIA.

Declaring Victory on AZO; Switching Sides on Precious Metals; Fib Discipline - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/03/dec...

first time posting a chart as i just got TOS and prophet (way better then fidelity). i am very very new to TA all criticism is welcome...

http://www.screencast.com/t/xLMqXm3Hb

currently looks like we are hitting resistance (previous support) break of this and i think we visit 710 and a break below would be very nice...

jigdaddy, I noticed you mentioned you were down significantly last year and have made it all back in the past few weeks. how did you do it. I used to trade part time and did well, but I started trading full time in Sept. and have managed to lose about 50% of my trading $$. I think I got information overload. so I have now cleaned up my charts and am back to trend lines and SL/RL but am screwing up by placing my stops too close. scared money always looses. I was getting ready to give up when I came across this web site and noticed ErikD. Are you strictly following him? He seems to keep it very simple which is what I used to do when I was making money.

Hi artrader, I've almost got it all back. I got some very sound
advice from erik and started trading his setups which have been a
blessing. I'm still making a few mistakes and that's basically been
taking profits too early. Emotions are a bitch especially after you
have lost a lot of money but I am working very hard on it. I think
what I did was right was ask questions and wasn't afraid of asking
questions that some might find stupid. I also used much better risk
management. What mainly got me back on my feet was using options.

yes, that is my problem also, I take profits too early and then set stops too close. I use options, I tried futures and they just move to fast for my old heart. LOL, Thanks, I am determined to get my emotions in order and stop listening to all the noise.

oh and scale in and out of positions as well...that was a big thing in making it back this far...if i hadn't done that i would be sleeping on a sidewalk drinking scotch right now..

how do you determine your scaling % going in?

Same story here--seems Erikd is the loser's rehab go to. I've overcome the fear/tight stop problem with Mole's advice and some small win encouragement. Remain skeptical but convicted with the plan.

thanks, Sqidman, like they say first step to braking a habit is admit you have a problem, second step, get help. LOl

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009...

A real emergency, what is the world coming to?

Laughin my F'n ass off fuzzygrey...thanks I needed that blahahaha

Hay read it three times now and laughed even harder...I love the volume line!

I like the "candlestick patterns dont mean shit" line

Howdy PT, Glad I could bring a chuckle to your day, as well. ;-)

BalaB
I'm still holding my SPY calls : http://tinyurl.com/c8qt3k
Only a 38% loss, so far.

Today was yet another low volume drop day, so no bottom just yet : http://tinyurl.com/8oj5a6
I'm figuring out that the $CPCE ratio don't mean sh!t.
Option buyers are just as clueless as anyone else.
The ISEE don't mean sh!t.
Candlestick patterns don't mean sh!t.
Econ news don't mean sh!t.
$TNX don't mean sh!t.
PoG don't mean sh!t.
But volume... Volume will show you when everyone has p!$$ed their pants.
I'm waiting for the New Highs/Actives to ring the bell before going hog wild with calls.
http://tinyurl.com/byro6n
And I'm waiting for the $SPX / % above 50MA to seriously drop : http://tinyurl.com/bdau2a

An intermediate bottom is near.
It could be SPX 680 near or 640 near or 600 near, but any old day now there's gonna be one nasty-a$$ short covering rally based on some super duper news release that changes the market parameters/matrix/fundamentals (Whoops! Sorry, Mole! I just used the "F" word!)

"Only a 38% loss..." - Mozzeltov

Luckily I repaired that mess with some short e-minis. Otherwise, I spent most of the day in $$

I'm looking to get some SKF puts tomorrow.

I would go April I have 120s more time market could go nuts

Mar are more liquid... hopefully tomorrow is the day... it'll be our fifth down day in a row on SPX

Howdy T,

Just wait for the pamper p!$$in' volume and then wait for the short-squeeze inspiring news.
Remember back in JUL when this pig just kept falling and falling and falling.
MACD made historic drops.
Slo stochs just kept rubbin' the bottom of the range. http://tinyurl.com/bw9feh
It were kray-zee.

Just got to wait for that day... I know how to spot it.

I'm thinking SRS puts. IYR seems to be holding up well relative. Maybe a bounce to top of channel.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Ob2NPo8X

what month are you looking, I was thinking of doing the same either April or Mar

Mar 145s

Spx 666 Atilla brought it up as intresting close tom http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mHe6FMs46o

Look at /DX new high in AH.

Quite a bummer that as of 8pm ET ToS prices the portfolio based off of the closing prices..

I am relatively newbie when it comes to day/short term trading... However, I have devoted myself to become a student of market psychology over the past year or so.. and here are some thoughts based off of that:

There has been a lot of talk about support from 20 years ago and so on and so forth... The market today is not dominated by players who got in at those prices 20 years ago... So, I believe that supports that far back in the timeline hold no meaning...

I completely agree that we are in a region of no support/resistance (once we dipped below 740 on SPX,,, NDX has yet to breach the Nov low support). What this means is that the bounce/plunge can happen from anywhere... Now either is not going to happen out of thin air... Something has got to trigger it... Plunge will be triggered by some more financial going under or threatening to go under... (could be GE... could be C ... AIG ... BAC or even WFC, about which I have heard a few rumors)... All it is going to take is a few rumors that some more bank is going to tank and that will take the market down.... like there is no tomorrow.... Similarly a news event could trigger a rally out of nowhere.. In either case, a plunge creates a case of a bounce somewhere and rally creates the case for a subsequent plunge..

Put it simply, those looking for a plunge are waiting it out for a news event OR should hope for a nice sized rally and not be shaken out.

And those hoping for a monster rally here are waiting for a news event again OR a plunge

I have been insisting for past 2 days and will insist even now that the big move out of this slow grind down will be triggered by a news event... and not some technical reason.. So, do not place your bets on any fib level or channel or support level or some such thing creating a big powerful move...

moves are only based on technicals on weekly and daily time frames - 100% no ifs ands or buts..

do you pay much attention to futures in the evening?

i look at them at 4 a.m. est

Ding ding ding ... wake up erikd

damn, thats way past this little bears bedtime...

the early bird gets the worm.

yeah, but what if you're the worm?

JK - Have loved your work on the XLF. Thanks for sharing.