Breach Attempt 2.0

UPDATE 9:41am EST: 250 comments over night – you guys are animals!

That’s a nice channel breach on the Spiders. Could be for real – I expect a little re-test maybe and then we’ll either go gang busters or it falls apart like my wife’s soufflé. I for one would appreciate some upside for a chnage – player needs a rip.

UPDATE 10:32am EST: Well, that didn’t last very long – we are below VWAP on the ES and the YM. NQ seems to be leading today again – keep an eye on that. The Yen tried to make a run for it and got swatted down again. Don’t write the bulls off just yet however – we have been in the 890 – 710 region for 12 trading hours now and unless we breach this level soon this might be accepted as a temporary market bottom.

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 4th, 2009 at 9:44 am and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

standard_and_poor

Stopped out of xlf and ES with small losses, all part of the game.
molecool

N
E
W

P
O
S
T
Blind_Squirrel

Billion share day for GE?
Erikd

XLF - staging nice and orderly..
Pone

Erikd- In the race of SSO and XLF it looks like SSO is killing. SSO a better short?
willc

What about your other indicators, FXY VIX USO TNX? They are not cooperating. Are you sticking with your plunge plan while only one out of your five indicators are working?

We should have the big plunge today given the activities at close yesterday. However, the news from China changed the course. The question is if that news just delayed the unavoidable or actually change d the path by altering characteristics of the market.
molecool

Don't worry about the news, willc - just trade the charts. News only attempt to explain what already happened.
MyLifeMyTrade

And the market almost always prices in upfront what happened.. The chain of events is

- market moves to price an event
- event happens
- news shows up
- suckers buy the news; smart folks who bought up ahead of news, sell the news.
alphahorn

Erik do you have a feel for where the VIX will go?
Best Choice

Chart of the Dow during the recession in 1938...strange! Similar tape?

http://api.ning.com/files/5Bx5xxUWgXwtPGR4cg2Ji7ayNWWrivpRSxikMCHpAcCs*onZ7Al-TFHJImIVc32*fvrnrO93wOdOer-8b*QvSsdyUV7wL2kv/Dow.GIF
Best Choice

One more chart

http://www.mrci.com/special/ddji39.gif
chronictown

E-bear, what say you about the xlf breach of 7.85? what is your target/ thanks!
Erikd

first stop 6.00 - 6.50
MyLifeMyTrade

Brother... I am back with you ... ATM Mar calls - FAZ and SRS... with some VIX OTM Calls (lottery plays)

Added some ERY and TYP hoping for massive plunge in energy and tech when the collapse happens
lester

before March OpEx
prozor7

Erikd posted this nice chart in his last post:
http://www.screencast.com/users/erikdbrucker/folders/Jing/media/0ff1d572-1c55-43df-9ae9-400eb44e9baa
mtst

USD is sinking by now..
katzo7

Alpha, If I had my way, FAZ would tag around 80, and then begin it's next move up.
alphahorn

i hope not i can't control myself i keep adding :>) just bot another 1k
katzo7

I bought more FAZ , 78 and change
lazydogbkk

hearing from quite a trustworthy source that ge going the way of leh is imminant.
T. Waffle

GE is too big to bail out.
de3600

and AIG wasn't
T. Waffle

If they have learn anything from AIG then they won't bail out GE.
molecool

I have to get bigger.
Blind_Squirrel

I say Nay Nay!!!!!!!!!
TroyMcClureRIP

GE going BK? That's just crazy. There really is something other than a bank there. I could see the common in the low single digits, but if you think that they'll liquidate GE you're loco.
anotherone

As Deninger pointed out, companies like GE have huge pension liabilities as well as their businesses. Not saying that GE's going under, but it's something to consider.
TroyMcClureRIP

I'm not going to waste our time arguing this point. GL with your trades.
anotherone

No argument from me. I'm not in GE and don't have an opinion one way or another. Just pointing out a fact. Best of luck to you as well.
fadethetrend

let me guess Charlie "I need a drink" Gasparino.
SRSFinance

How does Mole put it? Sell the rips? Seems to still be working. Added to SLB on today's rip. So far so good. Crossing fingers. Gap ups in downtrends are mighty magnetic.
standard_and_poor

shorting more es on any pullbacks.
SRSFinance

Alpha, thanks for the heads up on FAZ this a.m. I had placed an order to be filled at the open and got in in at $70.35. I've been in and out a few times over the past week (all for good profit fortunately) but I think I'll just hold this one overnight unless it trades below my entry point today.
alphahorn

awesome!
Steve

courtesy of Oscar..
http://flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/3328680038/sizes/o/
lester

missed my chance to make some cash on GE. I had a limit order to buy Puts but I got cute and set limit 10 cents below market to try to catch a bounce. It never filled and I could have made 15% in 10 minutes. Well I threw in the towel and bought. Chasing is usually a mistake...
katzo7

Better to be out of a stock and wish you were in than in a stock and wish you were out
Baby Dragon

No rally before all the bulls are sure trapped in 650 zone.....
and that is one fundamental of bear markets.....
Says ghost of trader from scull........

So expect a massive crash down which may take a S&P to 650 then stay in 630 to 740 range for next 4 months......
killing most the bulls and option traders......

because indicators can get oversold way more....
They are just functions of market.....
Market is independent of all of them....

OK here goes simple logic...
Maximum last bear rally was 19%
so people expect less than that say 12%
so Max 10% trading range......
and at 60% safety .... Rally is not gradable at all...

So we get no rally here and sell of more......
SRSFinance

"then stay in 630 to 740 range"

If you're right, there's going to be some very nice swing trading money to take down there.
innatedc

Does anyone here feel like oil is starting to decouple from the broad indices....?
J-So

It will fall. Everything will fall in this final period. Even gold. It will be a complete capitulation.
T. Waffle

1095.50 on /NQ is support if we break that next stop is 1055.25
Skates

Holyshit, 6.85 on XLF broken! Let's see if it stays below....
Implicit Trader

I guess the only long trade that's profitable these days is buy at the close, sell at the open....

p.s. the YM are in lock step with the ES, almost tick for tick....been like this for a few weeks. Those wanting to play futures but don't want to risk 50. per pt, YM may be your bag
katzo7

Too much smart money around, when someone exposes himself (goes long), others wack his head off. A variation of wham bang thank you mam
amgrant

Well, that depends what you are long. Long AAPL or USO has worked quite well.
standard_and_poor

shorted xlf
fadethetrend

So much of the ge weakness is in the inherent flaw of the existing cds market. hedge funds can take out fire insurance on a company and then burn it down to the ground.

This was foreshadowed a month ago when people started following the options market. Huge put orders around 5 were being made when ge was at 11-12.
Guano

believe it or not, GECC CDS is actually better today, currently 16.5 points up front plus 500 bps running, vs. a close of 20 p.u.f. yesterday
fadethetrend

check it again.
standard_and_poor

Shorted ES for day trade..
Skates

We CANNOT rally with GE taking a shit!
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Shorting more JNPR at 13.70 just like yesterday
Erikd

get ready....
mtst

Merde!!! any target for today? still 6.5?
DJ

Will we see 6.6 or 6.3 today?
J-So

XLF ticking closer and closer to $6.85. Tick...tick....tick...

VIX is trying tobreak out of it's gap support also. If that happens AND we breach $6.85 we could crash today!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/3327813265/sizes/l/
lester

back in 100% short on XLF. I am guessing we break 6.84 and plummet? That is what I am hoping for...
katzo7

Don't do anything more here.
lester

cannot go more than 100%. Cash only no margin.
katzo7

Lester, Please do not get whipsawed in this. IMO, we are headed for a bottom in the 600reds. May be wrong but I am holding short positions over time
Vendrell

Am ready...added more shorts this morning. All stops at 716 since yesterday morning.
DJ

XLF filled the gap. good, we go down now. I drew fib on xlf and it tells me that's headed to 4.43 (fib 161.8 level). agree?
innatedc

To be fair Erik it could be a gap fill before a bounce.....hope not but its possible....stay on your toes.
alphahorn

I'm ready!!!!!!1
katzo7

FAZ @ 80.53
katzo7

For what????
LOL
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I hope not another smoke break lol
Vardoger

BTW, I have a trendline at ~715-717 on /es that should act as resistance and reject the first time if you are looking to unload shorts. Not saying we get there or break it, rather if you want to get out that should provide a pullback to cover FWIW.
Implicit Trader

Looks like the SPYs are trying to stay outside the channel (posted above by Mole) but thus far, not much momo to the upside
NYSE AD: 5:1
katzo7

Gap filled in FAZ, let's see if a real rally or fluff.
FAZ at 79
Steve

Iuse prophet chart mostly, but I started to use TOS chart along side the prophet because mole was kindly to write me an indicator that is not available for prophet.

What I have noticed it that the readings for the indicators (not the one mole wrote) between the two are significantly different for the same underlying with the same time frame. Can this be??
Vardoger

Just covered my shorts into that dump. Picked up a small erx call position and taking a few days off to relax and clear the mind. Looking to start getting short again from 744-762.
geckoman

Can we have a rally with GE skydiving without a parachute? GE has the potential to be a horizon event.
Joe8888

lets see if we get a 10 am lift off.
lester

nibbled on some FAZ Mar Calls
Squidman

Spent some time evaluating my entry on SRS yesterday, thanks to My Life's advice. Should have waited for the top of the channel. Also analyzed His and Mole's prodding not to buy calls on EFT's in this high volatility. "sell OTM puts instead" or "bull put spreads". Paying the price this a.m. so lesson learned
SRSFinance

Leadership, the financials, are leading down. If you guys want to play the upside more power to you, but I'm going to use it to add to my short positions.

It's all about the time frames you trade in I guess.
katzo7

I agree.
Erik says make a plan and trade that plain plan and plan to trade a plan when you plan a trade for the plan, I think.
I may have misquoted him a bit here BUT . . . . .
standard_and_poor

I think thats what he said. pretty close.
Erikd

plan the trade - trade the plan
Keirsten

Here's another link to share with my fellow rats on Short Squeezes. Forgot I had this one.

http://www.highshortinterest.com/
roscoe_casita

Awesome find, thank ya =)
lester

good morning all. Trying to decide if I should close my shorts and go long or add to my shorts. I am 50% short now.
alphahorn

i've been adding myself
katzo7

Alpha, FAZ about to cross MACD on 5 min. right at zero line

10 min. looks good too
alphahorn

forgot to mention i really added to my DXO yesterday, almost at my magical #
alphahorn

yeah, been diversifying heehee, adding SRS which was proportionally cheaper this am
katzo7

IMO, hold
thunda72

I think this might fall apart. I added some SPY puts at the open. I am using profits and starting to add long-term calls, though. Picked up CHK Jan 2010 calls for 0.40! Also beginning to buy UYG long-term calls on dips. Thanks for the DRYS tip... did very well at the open.
fadethetrend

Where is 7 minute abbs? That open looked downright horrible.
katzo7

FAZ fighting back, 77

Now 78, look at that sucker go
Insurance co. problems?
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

XLF going down.Erikd must like that. "Plan your trade.Trade your plan". I think i will trade mark that .lol
Squidman

I think he may be a diver like me. Plan your dive and dive your plan is the golden rule underwater--very good analog to trading
JoeBear

Yen getting crushed...
Anton

the tape is not so bullish so far ..
solo899

Financials weak - gotta fade it.
NinjaPenguin

XLF not looking healthy, either.

Breach Attempt 2.0

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