Friday Wrap Up

UPDATE Closing Bell: LOL – we actually closed 1 point and 8 cents positive on the SPX – that was hilarious! Told ya there would be a snap back rally! What I however did not count on was that there would be so little participation. So, I don’t trust this further than I can throw the average market maker.

The hourly Zero got faked out early in the morning when the tape turned on a dime but we got rewarded with a short VTA that took us all the way to 666 (if you took profits at that level). Intra-day the Zero Lite warned us about a divergence in momentum as shown on the right side of the chart. I immediately sent an alert to subscribers at 675 to go long and we took profits quickly at 682. Then we got a short VTA at the bottom but I think most subscribers ignored that one as I kept warning them about the flatline in the Zero Lite. I’d give the Zero Senior a C- today because of the whipsaw alerts (but it did give us a sustained drop to the bottom) and the Zero Lite a B+. Those divergence plays are something we didn’t get with the hourly version and I’m having a lot of fun picking those out.

I’ll be chiming in on Sunday, as usual. In the interim – enjoy your well deserved weekend. I leave you with this:

FYI – this was produced in 1979 – WAY ahead of its time.

Cheers!

This entry was posted on Friday, March 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm and is filed under Intraday Update, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

NEW POST!
Count_de_Monee

Regarding 2sweeties RL, which subscription package do people here think most useful for trading ES?
JohnyWalker

daily and weekly commentary . dont leave cash without it .. :)
Blind_Squirrel

Did Austrailia have a time change this weekend too?

Do they still start @ 6:00 ET or 5?

I think I figured backwards. Start now @ 7;00 ET
slartybardfast

Australia did not switch their clocks this weekend. I think it will be at the end of March, but not sure exactly when.

You can get live global times at http://timeanddate.com
katzo7

Hey slarty,
let's say we forgive and forget!
slartybardfast

Only if Fuzzy agrees to reduce your bonus this year.
de3600

my dream spx 1000 vix 30
katzo7

What timeframe?
Maybe in 2010.
We have all seen a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, until that breaks sounds to me like just a dream. But, you may be correct as stranger things have happened.

I have a friend over here who inherited maybe 1.5 mil. from parent's death. Told her to avoid being told we are at a bottom. She said she know and he was very happy with Oppenheimer. Something is wrong if a person who doesn't know what a PE is and cannot read a chart knows what is ahead.
de3600

Lol thats funny my father last year gave his money to a financial advisor (highly recommended) gives the guy like 150k in Feb 2008 to manage.Shithead dumped it all into financials.They called him up and told are you fuckin nuts he tells him dont worry about it all comes back.Next day thank god he ran and told the idiot to cut him a check.
de3600

next week like I said a dream
v8muscle

What im seeing looks slightly bullish here. Might get a pop towards 700 but that 700 level will be hard to break through. Huge supply zone in the 710-720 range also. Bottom line however: the market is making new lows daily and any bullish move is going to get hit hard with shorts. This week could be interesting.
Iguanadon

Once the shorts start covering, just imagine the rally that will take place... I'm ready for an up move, a change of pace.
v8muscle

i dont see what would really make the shorts cover at this point though. everything stinks here. People seem to be forgetting that the rally on Friday was simply a short covering rally and does NOT reflect market sentiment at all at this point.
JohnyWalker

When everything stinks including headlines and sentiments thats the time to go long. I held some ES from friday but i dont think we have had the big stink ( wave 5 of 5 of 5 ). It could be debated that 4/5 has started but over this i have my doubts but we closed 18 points above my entry so im happy to " take the chance " on the profits.
9orchids

2 Sweeties = Retracementlevels.com

They are terrific - daily long/short levels + quick emails when they see something developing on hourly charts.
isaiah64v4

Thanks...
isaiah64v4

I just signed up for ZERO but it never provided a screen where I could submit payment. What is the next step?

Also, do you folks find 2sweetie info helpful. If so could someone provide that web address.

I feel like Steve Wonder here when I see comments in regards to these two indicators. Time for me to see what everyone else is seeing. Thanks!
aleatoric

Did you guys watch Cramer talk about technical analysis "voo doo"? lol

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12771.htm
Covered

Mole, a few days ago you asked about a web host... I'd check out media template, http://www.mediatemple.net/ - I've heard and seen good things from them.
Chrys

EWT is really hard to to put into practice. Maybe that's why it's "T" for theory. Anyway there are really big implications in the two major counts. EWI (and Mole's count is similar) says we are approaching the bottom of Primary 1 down while McHugh's says we approaching Primary A down. EWI/Mole's count would see 5 primary waves to the downside and to the ultimate bottom (I've seen counts ranging 200 to 400 in the SPX). While McHugh's sees it as a giant ABC. After the next B rally we go down big time. Maybe with both counts we reach the same endpoint but in between it is hard for a trader. In the EWI/Mole count Primary 2 I would think would be a lot shorter in time than Primary B. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
StainlessSteelChicken

This is one of the things I love about EWP. In this case, your preferred and alternate counts generally agree on the next 2 big moves -- we go up, then back down. That alone is extremely powerful. Because of the agreement, I don't really have to worry too much about which count is correct until we reach the point of divergence, and that's a long way away.
nepharis

Yeah, I'm a bit confused on the big picture as well. I was just looking through McHugh's newsletter trying to figure out his count, and the time frame of his cycle/supercycle counts seem ridiculously short. I'm not sure exactly where we are in terms of supercycle/grand SC for mole's count...
Jigsaw

Here's a link to the latest McHugh newsletter https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/newsletter/bpdf/TII_Newsletter_1030A_3.6.09_7055475115.pdf
He's predicting a rally to insue shortly along with a decline in the dollar. Could be triggerd by new market to market rules or the uptick rule being changed back.
Im sure the dems are getting some heat to do something.

BTW: is there a ETF that tracks the US Dollar?
nepharis

Thanks for the link. I looked through his EWP predictions... is he really saying that grand supercycle wave IV will last like 5 years? Huh?

Anyone know the exact differences between his and Mole's long-term (cycle, supercycle, grand SC) count?
Keirsten

UUP for dollar bull, UDN for dollar bear. G/L
Vardoger

2-4 trendline break is roughly ~706 spx.
C.C. Rider

A rally over 700 SPX would be strong confirmation of a new trend, A break over 715 would confirm it. McClellan is signalling another big move Monday or Tuesday.

http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/folders/Default/media/42835728-ab71-4e13-98a9-281cf4ac82d0/2009-03-08_1104.png

http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/folders/Default/media/a77b6cfb-72e7-44b7-aeae-63fe7e23a54f/2009-03-08_1110.png
Douala

Your first link I see is copy of Dr McHugh's graph.... do you have any faith in his calls. I had followed him for a while. He is always backtracking in my book.
C.C. Rider

His calls are more accurate than most. I gleen the most from his mid to long term calls directionally, as a trend trader. A rally from here makes a lot of sense, as it would pattern after the '29 crash fairly closely. In terms of ultimate lows, an 80 to 90 percent loss by the indices is fully probable. In the end, it won't be good for bulls or bears.
rebozo

This just in... The world's financial leaders are all treading water after their titanic sank. Rescue vessels are now steaming towards the scene of the disaster. But the rescue vessels are not sure how to rescue the survivors or how many can or should be saved. Could take weeks or a month before a rescue plan can be formulated. Seriously folks, the G20 will meet in London this Friday and Saturday. Rescue plan alternatives sure to be on the agenda.
Enfinity

Which version of rescue plan are we on now?
Lordted

The G20 Business Conference, to be held at Prime Minister Gordon Brown's London residence on March 18, will aim to "map out the challenges to international business on the path to recovery,"

From G20 UK site
DavidDT

Off Topic
For those of you who experience sudden interruptions with internet connection and use ZoneAlarm - it just might be the reason.
I would highly recommend to switch to Online Armor
http://www.tallemu.com/
Dragonsbane

I was just thinking that Zone Alarm might have been the reason I couldn't post anything through Disqus on Friday!
rhae

I think some type of bounce is on the short term horrizon... My gut feeling is horrible so I rly on cycles and harmonics to try and increase the odds.... This chart is really into " Into The Twilight Zone" with a combination of artificial intelligence projection, pitchfork...

SPY year to date plus 5 days ... No one really knows...

http://www.screencast.com/t/AOhbrpdW7F
katzo7

Yes rhae, I agree something is up and to me, it is fishy. The RSI is oversold, MACD is pointing down but this could possibly reverse and go up at any time, stochs are starting to turn up and the volume is slightly climbing. Very indecisive period.
Farathall

All I can say is that we have to have some seriously nutsy shennanigans into op-ex.
katzo7

Well said, Farathall.
Harmon

Here's the M2M info
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/hr031209.shtml
Mark-to-Market Hearing Confirmed for March 12; Rep. Gerlach May Propose Legislation to Suspend MTM and Call for GAO Study
What had been rumored on Reuters a couple days ago is now confirmed: Late this afternoon, the House Financial Services Committee posted a link to an upcoming March 12 hearing on: Mark-to-Market Accounting: Practices and Implications. The hearing will be conducted by the Capital Markets Subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA). Kanjorski’s subcommittee held a hearing this morning on Perspectives on Systemic Risk.
Flatlander

So far I cannot find a press release on the Mark to Market hearings. Any idea when this was posted to the schedule? I can find no dates indicating when it became public knowledge.

Just curious if it appeared after the market closed on Friday or if it appeared prior to the close and we saw little to no reaction by the markets.
Harmon

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2009/03/report_house_panel_se
ts_hearin.html?hpid=topnews
Flatlander

Thanks for the post Harmon but I'm unable to get the link to work.
Flatlander

Disregard, I was able to do a search on The Post's website and saw the article was posted about ah hour before the market closed.

Thanks.
Centrifugal_Deforest

I'm not saying we're going to have any IT rally just yet, but my long-screen looks a lot better this weekend that in quite some time. One surprise was all the semi-mfg names that turned up.

The screen is stocks with nh in rs + >50-day + highly-ranked group strength

http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb
standard_and_poor

Good information, +!
Harmon

And as such I bought a few xlf calls Thursday
They are discussing M2M on Thursday next week
slartybardfast

Who is discussing M2M next Thursday? Thanks.
fuzzygreysocks

"They"
http://tinyurl.com/avzc29
chronictown

"royal with cheese" fuzzy, your my hero. I saw your post on slope about skf puts. why not load up on fas or uyg. they are trading like options with no time decay. thanks for your posts, keep up the good work' On another note, can any one help me get an avatar?
fuzzygreysocks

FAS, UYG or even TNA are perfectly good alternatives to SKF puts.
The advantage to SKF puts is simply that while the ETFs may gain a few dozen percentage points in a week SKF puts could tripple.
Here's an example using the respective ETF inverses and a reasonable SKF MAR $200 call : http://tinyurl.com/c6tafa

Now, if these puppies move like this when the mkt goes down, then... those SKF APR $150s look okay.
HardTimes

Careful, there is another kind of time decay on these. Note the funds only mirror the indices that they're intended to mirror for the DAY:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/35789-the-case-against-leveraged-etfs
Flatlander

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=al2LwdZUDUNM

If talk about changing "mark to market" rules continue to get play with the press and politicians, the result could be a rally in the financials.

What's his face on Fast Money this past Friday indicated United Bank would double in price should the mark to market rules be suspended.

That's two "mentions" of mark to market suspensions. Since the financials have been beaten down further than most other sectors, an across the board rally plus a little boost from this news might make for a rapid price increase in select bank stocks and the "XLF".
Covered

Flatlander, I've been commenting on this both here on Evil and on the Slope. I finally took a moment to post an entry to my blog about it with a lot more commentary. I used this article for reference as it is a perfect example of the ridiculous stupidity of this policy idea. Feel free to take a read and give me your thoughts: http://www.ryanbarr.com/investing/mark-to-market-rules
Flatlander

I read your article and agree in principle but not in how the market will perceive a suspension of mark to market. Check out the comments posted.

Sharing of ideas helps to keep us ahead of the sheepeoples.
Covered

My take is that if m2m is suspended, the banks crash even harder than they have recently. We all know that they are insolvent, and without m2m it become even harder to see what is on their crappy balance sheets. At least today we can see something.
Dragonsbane

Changing mark to market accounting won't change the outcome for the banks. You're right that they're insolvent and a lot of people know it already. Changing the accounting rules won't change they're financial health. What it could do is fuel a massive short covering rally though, similar to when shorting financials was banned last year. Everyone knew that those banks were no better off, but we covered our shorts anyways and got back in later. If they suspend m2m, the crash will still come, but it may be postponed a bit.
roncofooddehydrator

Been reading up on mark to market lately, and I think suspending it, as it was from 1938-2007, may actually change the outcome positively for some banks. Mark to mark accounting is causing a spiral effect downward where banks have to write off the bad assets they're holding which aren't worth much now (but may be worth more in the future), which reduces confidence in the banks, which drives prices downward, which makes the banks write off more, which reduces confidence more, etc.
Dragonsbane

Well it really depends. If they eliminate the mark to market accounting rules and the assets continue to depreciate in value, the elimination of the rules will mean very little to the banks. They will have to write these assets down anyways and if they don't, confidence will continue to erode. In the long run, the result will be same regardless of mark to market. What is needed is for the underlying assets to stop depreciating. Not a change in how the assets are reported.
roncofooddehydrator

From what I understand, banks used to be able to use historical cost accounting. Then they would report the value of what they paid for the securities, even if that's not what they would fetch on the market now. They then could continue to hold those securities without writing down their value. That would then prevent them from having to keep raising additional capital and would also make it easier for them to lend money out, because they don't need to fear having those ratios drastically change on them.
Covered

You and Flatlander make very solid points. The short covering rally would indeed be fierce. I can imagine that the volume of short contracts out there for C, BAC, JPM and WFC alone would be enough to drive the markets higher. If the XLF were to begin a rally, the major index's would surely follow.

I wonder if it happens on a buy the rumor, sell the news type of situation, or if at suspension of the ruling the banks would run up...
HardTimes

But the rumour is already out there, it has been at least several days if not back a couple of weeks...
Covered

True and it is beginning to develop some teeth. Well, I hope we get a pop from it. And a nice big multi day rally in the XLF would make me happy. As a proud owner of a bunch of SKF puts, I would love to see that thing come crashing back to earth.
Implicit Trader

Hey All
Re: This lame ass Trader's Tax

I'm resident of Oregon. I just left a message with a friend who has close ties with the Congressman asking for a meeting. Let's see what can get done. Send me whatever you think is pertinent and helps to plead our case.

Update: http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/103473-1.html
"A recent House of Representatives' bill that many on Wall Street believe would destroy liquidity will never pass, according to industry experts."

I'm still gonna take the meeting.
Implicit Trader

Update: LOL in shame. I just spoke with my buddy (whose campaign I worked on - did the ads). His response; "pfffffft...don't waste your time"

All bark/ no bite

I made a mistake thinking this was well researched (sine thats typically the m.o.. of the group) before reaching out.
Flatlander

Based on my average annual trading, I will be out of business if this tax does pass.

If I'm doing the math correctly, the current Section 31 fee ($5.60 per million dollars sold) increases to $2500 per million dollars sold.

Calmer heads will prevail.
molecool

If you guys post and it doesn't show up - don't post it again as you might get flagged as a spammer. Just send me a message to admin@evilspeculator.com and I remove it from the disqus spam folder.
Erikd

thanks for explaining this
Duuuuuude

Would anybody here know how the trader tax would apply to options?

For futures, it is obvious.

1 corn futures contract at 5000 bushels X $4 = $50, or .01 per bushel.

I am thinking about farmers using options spreads to hedge their grain. Say they bought a bear put spread to create a floor, and sold a call above to create a ceiling to keep the cost down? The farmer would be subject to taxes 3 times to hedge the same bushels.

By the time the farmer hedges a bushel of corn, an end user hedges his bushel of corn, the processor hedges his cost of the corn, this thing will create a lot of tax revenue off the same bushel of corn.
bergs

Mole, I know ZoneAlarm did an update yesterday. IF so, those that run the security suite may want to make sure disque is checked as follows:

http://screencast.com/t/h2ypZklDjup
molecool

I think Disqus is fucking up again. I found many of your messages in the disqus spam folder. Damn I hate it when they start making changes to their system - it always turns into a waste of my time. Anyway, I have submitted a request:

http://disqus.disqus.com/my_members_messages_are_being_sent_to_spam/

Feel free to chime in there and complain.
Erikd

thanks for the solution, i posted a comment.
LeTrader

My posts are not making it on here... What's going on??? Can anyone see this??

EXCERPT FROM ERIKD

"
please post this for me , tried 2 computers do not know why i cannot post? are you telling me that none of my posts showed up? do not know what is going onwith this.thanks Erikd.

for any of you KNIFE CATCHERS indicators are 7 for 7 EOW.... BEARS are resting easy this weekend.... 8>)
XLF http://screencast.com/t/49Opi7Av
USO http://screencast.com/t/QrejoMydR0
FXY http://screencast.com/t/54p3BErzmv
$VIX http://screencast.com/t/tE6kIgqI6a
$TNX http://screencast.com/t/gUrcRHc8v
EUR/USD http://screencast.com/t/qW67edp6Rp
AAPL http://screencast.com/t/4j7LNDrNLBV
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!
"
molecool

I think it's because you are posting so many links. There's nothing wrong with that but disqus doesn't seem to like it. I posted an issue about this:

http://disqus.disqus.com/my_members_messages_are_being_sent_to_spam/
Erikd

thanks for figuring out the problem, will break up post into 2 next time.
C.C. Rider

Spammer is as spammer does! Nyet.
molecool

Why is everyone testing?
LeTrader

My posts are not making it on here... What's going on??? Can anyone see this??

EXCERPT FROM ERIKD

"
please post this for me , tried 2 computers do not know why i cannot post? are you telling me that none of my posts showed up? do not know what is going onwith this.thanks Erikd.

for any of you KNIFE CATCHERS indicators are 7 for 7 EOW.... BEARS are resting easy this weekend.... 8>)
XLF http://screencast.com/t/49Opi7Av
USO http://screencast.com/t/QrejoMydR0
FXY http://screencast.com/t/54p3BErzmv
$VIX http://screencast.com/t/tE6kIgqI6a
$TNX http://screencast.com/t/gUrcRHc8v
EUR/USD http://screencast.com/t/qW67edp6Rp
AAPL http://screencast.com/t/4j7LNDrNLBV
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!
"
LeTrader

Just sent you an email to admin at evilspeculator dot com

Please post Erik's posts if you can successfully post.
LeTrader

Because some of us cannot get our posts show up here - including Erikd
de3600

dont forget folks tonight turn your clock ahead for what I think in this time and age is the dummest thing going DAYLIGHT SAVINGS
ZigZag

It also kills people http://tinyurl.com/5m94sp

If you don't hear from me after a few days, it means I'll be doing my trading in Heaven. :-)
molecool

I think what's even dumber are people who are calling it 'Daylight Savings' - the name is 'Daylight Saving' :-P

My other pet peeve is 'nucelar' - sheeeshhh

It's funny how something like this can stick among a majority of the population - strange.
TomOfTheNorth

'Fusstrated' gets me
katzo7

How about a New England thing, I have a good idear. But a car is a ca, so they are liberal with the "r"s.
workdog

I take the opposite side of the trade of anyone on CNBC who says "Chiner".
Mimi66

I have a tax question...do I need to list every stock transaction in Schedule D? I dont have many and H&R tells me I do not need to.
fuzzygreysocks

"Yes".

Whomever you trade through most likely sends a copy of your 1099, + INT + DIV to the IRS, the agent that receives your schedule D may or may not give any of it a good looking over.
Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

Gagelle is an ex-IRS man : http://disqus.com/people/gagelle/#main
Jump to his latest link and confirm with him.

GL
Mimi66

Thanks Fuzzy..I did get a 1099 etc..and H&R block put down the total purchases and gains/loss...I will ask Gagelle.
katzo7

Yes, you better. What they do is to take the total sales off of the 1099 and compare that against what you claim on your D-1. If anything is missing, say you do not list IBM and sold it for $10,500, they declare that a total profit and you will be charged tax on that as income as well as a penalty until you can prove the cost basis. If you bought if for $10,499, once you prove it to them (an amended D-1) they back off. YOU made a dolla. Don't ask me how I know.
Also, you should google wash sales and get familiar with that concept.
dingos

Detail is required. IRS will allow you to attach a schedule.
mimi66

Thanks guys..

I remember someone a few weeks mentioned a website that you can import your trades to schdule D..does anyone remember the website?
Covered

Not to get too detailed here...

If you trade /ES /NQ or other futures products, they DO NOT go on a Schedule D, Equities (stocks) and option (on equitieis) go on the D. If you trade options on CASH SETTLED index products (SPX, OEX, RUT etc...) you can file them using the tax treatment of futures, this is typically called a 1256, IRS code 1256 covers the rules.

You CAN file cash settled options on a D, but the tax treatment is not nearly as favorable and you don't need details when you file using the 1256 rules. Obviously keep your records in case of an audit.

I am NOT a CPA or Tax Professional. Just an active trader that reads the publications and talks to tax pros. Personally, I use Turbo Tax and TOS. TOS exports my trades out to a .csv file, I import the things that need to be on the D into TurboTax, and put the rest into the appropriate forms.

Good luck, filing after trading is a pain in the butt!
Chrys

I use GainsKeeper which allows me to suck all my trades from TOS's Penson Financial Services. I then import into my tax software (TaxAct) for Schedule D. Gainskeeper informs you if a planned trade will result in a wash sale.

gainskeeper.com
fuzzygreysocks

I bought the TurboTax Premier edition which allows you to access your trading platform via the internet from the TTax program, where it will figure out all the BS in a moment for you.

About $85 at Sam's Club.
Worth every penny of it.

Screw H&RBlock.
TraderTamas

ew Sam's Club

Go to Costco
fuzzygreysocks

Costco's at the other end of town, but FWIW, we liked them better than Sam's.

With three little kids, 4 6 & 9, we eat more than the fifty bucks annual membership in free cookies.
HA!

Little kids are great.
For less than five bucks we can buy three hot-dog + drink combos, split one dog between the 4 & 6 y.o.s and a root beer between the 6 & 9 y.o.s (because no one wants to drink after the 4 y.o has chewed and slobbered all over his straw) and we all have a cheap date under the halogen glow of Sam's Club ambiance.
Life is good.
:-)

And then there are the two buck Dollar Tree lunch dates...
LOL!
dingos

Some tax software can import from excel. Turbotax?
katzo7

Was it this one mimi?
It is expensive for few trades though.
http://www.armencomp.com/irs-schedule-d.html#wash-sales
mimi66

You guys are great...thank you for all your help!

I have a question for Mole...could this leg down be 5 of 5 and not 3 of 5?
zstock7

Here I am on Disqus–
http://zstock7.com/?p=758#comment-6964181
Thomson Reuters, estimates the trailing P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 11.
They’re lower than the P/E ratio of 13 touched at the market bottom during the 1990-1991 recession,
During the market low of the early 1980’s recession, for example, stocks in the index were trading at a mere 8 times earnings.
If I take13 P/E old P/E's and subtract 15%, I get the new P/E of 11
SP500–P/e’s dropped 15%–that probably accounts for me having to subtract 10% –on all of my entries from FEB investment site–
Every entry-Went 10% lower than those Feb recommendations and they are just now at the buy price--
ALL ( AllState) –is a prime example–I had a $15 entry–subtract 10%=13.5 –today’s low 13.85–probably the low of the month—13.85
zstock7

I think JPM bottomed at 14.95
http://option.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/jpm-3-5-option-site.jpg
StainlessSteelChicken

I'd keep an eye on the trend lines in the attached chart. The purple line extends from the 2000 high and the black line is from the 2007 high. JPM closed below both lines for the first time on Friday. How it performs on a retest would be significant, IMO.

http://www.screencast.com/t/albfKFog
de3600

z love your blog I think your charts are top notch
bergs

Will it be 605 or have we already truncated?????????

http://screencast.com/t/qdlGSIdPlk

Apologize, just saw I forgot to paste a link in yesterday's post!
LeTrader

My posts are not making it on here... What's going on??? Can anyone see this??

EXCERPT FROM ERIKD

"
please post this for me , tried 2 computers do not know why i cannot post? are you telling me that none of my posts showed up? do not know what is going onwith this.thanks Erikd.

for any of you KNIFE CATCHERS indicators are 7 for 7 EOW.... BEARS are resting easy this weekend.... 8>)
XLF http://screencast.com/t/49Opi7Av
USO http://screencast.com/t/QrejoMydR0
FXY http://screencast.com/t/54p3BErzmv
$VIX http://screencast.com/t/tE6kIgqI6a
$TNX http://screencast.com/t/gUrcRHc8v
EUR/USD http://screencast.com/t/qW67edp6Rp
AAPL http://screencast.com/t/4j7LNDrNLBV
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!
"
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Zig Zag

http://screencast.com/t/dDHJzKaIQDM
ZigZag

:-)

http://tinyurl.com/cl8eoj
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

lol seems i short all the stocks he is long.
dnarby

Grizzly fund closing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aX8yh0EgfMFE&refer=us

I emailed them about why they just wouldn't take cash, metals or long/short various currencies as a position. Seems strange they would close it outright.
Erikd

for any of you knife catchers... indicators are 7 for 7 EOW.... BEARS are resting easy this weekend.... 8>)
XLF http://screencast.com/t/49Opi7Av
USO http://screencast.com/t/QrejoMydR0
FXY http://screencast.com/t/54p3BErzmv
$VIX http://screencast.com/t/tE6kIgqI6a
$TNX http://screencast.com/t/gUrcRHc8v
EUR/USD http://screencast.com/t/qW67edp6Rp AAPL http://screencast.com/t/4j7LNDrNLBV
peterey

Erikd,

Thank you for your update, it is very much appreciated.

In the screencast that I post below, you'll find some additional considerations of mine that I hope could add something to the discussion.

http://www.screencast.com/t/e2FmmG9YmaI

All the best.
Erikd

we would retrace weekly overhead trendline at best, nothing to worry about, the bloodshed is just beginning...
peterey

you mean up to the dotted green horizontal line of your XLF chart or which other trendline?
arak0

Hi Erik,

If XLF were to retrace up to the weekly trendline or even half of that, where would that put FAZ pricewise?

Thanks,

Arak
HardTimes

Look at where XLF is now, and look at where the trendline is. Calculate the percentage increase. Then multiply the percentage by three. Calculate what FAZ would lose based on that percentage. Obviously this is a rough figure because if it takes more than one day there is potentially loss in FAZ due to the leverage trap.

I really don't want to sound like a dick here but people need to figure this stuff out for their own good. Do not become dependent on Erik. His postings are incredibly valuable but what if he didn't post anymore? If you are not learning from Erik and doing the analysis or even the basic math yourself you would be in a lot of trouble if you're dependent.

I apologize in advance if the question was rhetorical.
arak0

I track FAZ with its underlying which is RIFIN and not XLF. Since Erik uses XLF to time his entries, I wanted to hear his idea of how it works as he is the master of XLF.
Erikd

do not know, i make all my buys based on the XLF chart right now - about 80% weighting.monitor the other 6 indicators.
katzo7

peterey,
Seems like a discernable pattern is that it sets up a trend line (I am talking going back to Dec or Jan.) then breaks out to the upside, fails, then sets up a new down channel. You could chart all of these. No torrid analyzing here, this should be obvious to everyone. Lots of failed rally attempts. In fact, this pattern looks somewhat orderly and sometimes a simpler chart tells more than all of the bells and whistles, EWs, etc.

From back on Dec. 9th I counted the bars (boy I must be bored)-
down/up
4/3
4/8
9/6
6/2
8/4
6/??
The last 6 may not be finished it down move yet

My point is that any chance of a prolonged up move was thwarted, look at the 8 up that was immediately followed by the 9 down! Right after that, any down move was followed by a much shorted counter trend up move. As they say, patterns are telling until they are broken. Just some basic thoughts.
peterey

Thanks Katzo, all contributions are much appreciated.
katzo7

No, I should thank you for posting that chart. It clarified in my mind what
might happen. Sometimes the simpliest things are effective.

My take-we go sideways, up and down with plenty of fake out on Monday and
maybe even Tuesday. When this ends, we go up but not a major move, a move in
context with the pattern (remember, this can change at any time). Many are
calling for 705 or even higher. IMO, in looking at my EW charts on smaller
time frames, we never fully reached the ultimate targets. To further
clarify, every run up was met by selling and more shorting coming in.
Everyone knows the game now.
slartybardfast

Thanks Erik. These look like great charts and I'm going to spend some time looking at them in some detail over the weekend. Just wanted to thank you for posting this, it is very helpful. I'm learning a lot from you and I am sure many others are as well. Thanks again.
GMunni

What's with all the testes? One is enough. Two (2) is redundancy all over again and again.
GMunni

BTW, interesting date coming up from an anniversary and Gann perspective. Just so you know.
fuzzygreysocks

I have already invented the redundancy test.
You wanna invent one too?
Click here until it works ----> http://tinyurl.com/REDUNDANCY-TEST
:-)#)

PS: Know why there are no telephones at the mental health hospital?
The OCD patients keep dialing "9" to get out.
katzo7

Fuzz,
why do they put braille on a bank's drive up window?
fuzzygreysocks

OMG.
Why?
katzo7

You got that one right, answer is WHY?
OK, knowing that you are a deep individual, I will ask you a tree falling in the forest type question. Warning, there may not be any one answer to this.

Why is there an expiration date on sour cream?
fuzzygreysocks

Seriously?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sour_cream#Storage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycotoxins#Killing_humans
(Holy effin smoke! : One theory regarding the biblical Ten Plagues of Egypt argues that mycotoxins emerged on the top layer of stored grain, killing the first born children who traditionally ate first. )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aflatoxin#Pathology
F*ck me. That don't sound too good.
Screwit.
I never liked sour cream, anyway.
(Or should I write "anyways" just to get Mole's goat?!)

Meh-eh-eh-eh! http://tinyurl.com/bw2s9x
Erikd

deleted.
Erikd

deleted.
yearningtolearn

You guys might be interested in this piece that explains how Dow Jones Industrial Average has changed over time, and may no longer be useful for Dow Theory.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/03/charles-dow-rolls-in-his-grave-the-distortion-of-the-average-he-made-famous/

Highlights are:

- Original Dow Jones Industrial Average contained important industrial companies, while today's average has many non-industrial companies with a large weights given to financial companies such as American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, etc.

- The original average was a simple average, while today's is a weighted average. The weighing formula could be highly manipulated . (This point is made in the comment section.)
Erikd

deleted.
Erikd

deleted
fuzzygreysocks

Testing...
Testing...

Hello?
Is this thing turned on?
Blind_Squirrel

http://www.cantonrep.com/news/x1569321039/Stark...

Sign of the times!!!
LeTrader

Testing...
Erikd

deleted.
Blind_Squirrel

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090307/D96P1U...

These guys sound like they could be the next nominees for Treasury.

I guess they are guilty of practicing fraud without being SEC registered!!!!!

Or being a member of Congress!!

Blame it on Turbo Tax boys!!
Blind_Squirrel

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96ONQO00&show_article=1

Trump needs to be FIRED!!!

What a weasel!!!!!!!
T.B. Aurelius

Testing...Testing...
Skates

Anyone check out the new ToS features? I love both the active trader addition and the new flexible charts!!
fuzzygreysocks

Watch for the volume spike... http://tinyurl.com/cpnsmk

... followed by the New Highs/Actives return to the -0.025 line : http://tinyurl.com/b58gz8

... or you could wait until the New Lows drop from a spike : http://tinyurl.com/cwx6d3
Covered

nice fuzzy, you've been added to my reader... thanks man.
dnarby

Wow... What a great gift! Thanks Fuzz!
Implicit Trader

You just got bookmarked.

Nice Fuzz
Thrownaway

Gotta give it to you, excellent work. +1
chronictown

nice work fuzz!
TroyMcClureRIP

Charlie Gasparino is wasted right now.
El gAto

Mole.....as a fan of "The Legend of Bagger Vance" you may enjoy "The War of Art" by Steven Pressfield.

FSYS collapsed today! meow meow!

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise. The purpose of this website is to track the progressions of human herd psychology as it is reflected through several financial markets. Any commentary on this page, however useful it may be, is used for illustration, and to inspire thought provoking discussion, and not to be taken as specific trade recommendations. We are not endorsing any site or service, nor are we promoting choice examples as real-life trades. If it sounds sarcastic, it probably is and if it offends you, just don't read it. There are tremendous inherent risks in attempting to trade any market using any vehicle, particularly if it is leverage. Please contact your broker to explain all risks involved in the vehicle you will be trading and any questions you may have. Please consult with your own financial advisor before you tempt fate by following our evil speculation.