I was hoping for the market to push higher to start new shorts. I was looking at 724 to start, and 740 to add (if 724 was blown).
Then I saw the put/call vol ratio and last time we had a similar extreme reading was on 11/21/08. Any thoughts? http://screencast.com/t/qs1NL7lGWea -that little piece of info really shattered my confidence in starting new shorts. What that chart is telling me is wait for a pull back and buy big.

71.86 on the SPY is .236 on the retracement, just FYI.

NEW POST!

XLF just breached ErikD's upper channel line in the sand.

XLF http://screencast.com/t/wmuagOWx

Yup, let's see if it is support now.

Well, I was stopped out of my short /ES play. With M2M being off the table (accounting to CNBC), that may get us the continuation into wave 4. I was really looking for 650 on the /ES, but I'm not going to fight the tape.

uptick rule back next month per CNBC Should be a vicious short sqeeze. be careful rats.

I sure do miss you Mole wherever you may be! :-)

I noticed Mole went missing during an earlier rally. I think he hides under his desk sucking his thumb whenever the S&P breaks out.

At least, that's what I usually do.

New Vision : http://tinyurl.com/create.php

(Dumb Dora) : http://tinyurl.com/bzlb4h

Fuzzy

Bad link

Link no work, fuzz.

Big wicks on those green candles as soon as they try to push up...... today is certainly bullish but i see the shorts descending pretty soon. Damn lunchtime trading... cant read the market for pretty much 2 solid hours since theres no volume lol

1-day-wonder type action today, but don't be surprised to close on highs of session.
Breadth is severely positive and the leading industry groups today are all low-ranking while the lagging groups today are all higher-ranking. What is all means is get long garbage on any pullback and then sell it before the close of day.

New blog entry here
http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb

Nice to hear from you and thanks for the info.
I've always found your sh*& beneficial.

FYI - mole is having provider problems this am

NO, he is sleeping in. LOL
All my indicators are now pointing down. Bulls better make their case here or else.

This sideways crap is what gets the market in trouble.

He probably wishes he was sleeping in, he can't get into TOS and have been fighting it all morning.

I will not short until i see more of wave 4 play out.

Yeah...this move seems to small for the entire wave 4 and too big to be part of anything in wave 3 not so?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29613713

SEC keeping mk. to mkt.

markets dont usually make triple tops but I think we just did. I think we'll see heavier downside from here

I agree.
Seeing some nice divergence in MACDs

Divergence in $TICK, GLD mirrors SPX

i see strong resistance on XLF at 6.95, if we break thru that then 7.34 will be next up...

ISEE just turned bearish

hmmmm this price action is scaring me

You're all good. Nothing to be scared about. We're not selling off...that's helpful when trying to define a direction...No?

Yeah, I'm currently short the /ES with my stop above a 161.8 retracement on my fibs, this is looking like it might punch out. I really wish the Z was up and live again to see if we have divergence; confirming the short play. Otherwise, I'd be getting out early right now as we may step up all day long.

Upside or downside?

upside. theres big time supply up there around 710-715 but still this is scary lol

about even on the day though, so im not too worried

My mass of SKF puts is covering the short /ES contracts right now. We'll see how this plays out. If we jump up big time today and tomorrow, I'd expect a move down on Th-Fri after the m2m hearings. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Where's Mole?

Stop Whining!

http://www.realmofdarkness.net/sounds/arnold/ar...

Mole's Index Grid Chart

http://www.screencast.com/users/BalaB/folders/D...

Clearly Mole would like additional & continued input from us. Please do what you can to help advance the competence of the blog's comments. Sorry if I sound holy'er (sp?) than thou.....I think all of us would like to see the blog continue.

Bingo. Training wheels are off today folks. Don't be shy about chiming in.

We need a "Montage"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLMoFFVn58s

damn, I've been 100% correct on JPM the last few months. I should just start trading that instead of the indexes lol

Good job V8

Heads Up. There's a seller lurking at 71.39 on the SPYs. Could just be a fake out

60 min SPY gap fill is $71.30......allways going to be sellers at Gapfill..At first,,,it's good resistance area.

Good Point

what a great short scalp....from gap fill. banked 4 bucks on TZA,,, sold here.!!

Zero still stuck @ 11:10 est.

SPX bounced off of a trendline parallel to the channel, could get back in:

http://www.screencast.com/t/NJrLbKL6rX

Because of the degree we were oversold, this bear rally will go further to the upside than most people expect. Still waiting for 715 level to breach and cascade of short covering and long buying. I'm short DUG to at least $24 here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUG&p=D&yr=0&m...

I totally agree with you, this is what Mole has been saying since Monday. That everyone will declare the bear market over due to a vicious rally that will last possibly to 740-750. Long puts on SKF

Didn't Mole say the dollar would break higher? 800 min

I think he's been touting the FXY and we both have been bitching about the spreads on the options were criminal.

There is a gap at 712.66 on S&P. Last night we ended the day at 78.6 retrace of the previous push.. My target is 161.8 fib extension of that push = 712.91. If we get there

UGA breaking out! Needs to breach 24.1 for the real fun to begin.

new highs! and VWAPS on all indexes still POINTING higher and breath wildly bullish.
Ive found that a very good indicator of intraday movement, the direction of the vwap, which tends to act as support when pointign higher and resistance when pointing lower.
Last three days action tells me that if were not in a ST uptrend now, at least the ST downtrend has slowed dramatically and we are likely sideways to up for this itty bitty wave 4. plan the trade, trade the plan.

Although everythings looking bullish, the market has torn higher and i think it will be tough to move any higher. I cant remember any up days in this B-mkt being more up than this. Best play IMO is to wait for the mid day lull/pullback/touch of VWAP w/ confirmaiton of support and open a small long position.

Anybody more experienced in EWT, what are the possibilities that this is wave 4 of 3 of 5, and not 4 of 5? It seems unusual to me that a minor wave 3 could end on smaller volume like yesterday or Friday.

Yes, it's possible and we are also setting up a bearish looking Gartley pattern as well. Longs should be careful in the afternoon.

big time supply zone above 710. Momo is already gone from the market. we might double top or push to 712 but I dont see us ending the day at these levels

Erikd are you still short? thank you

After watching how Erik trades, I can almost 100% for sure tell you he has not changed positions. XLF has not breached the weekly resistance line and I am guessing that he would have to see at least one daily close above that line to confirm a breach. The trendline is holding so far.

nice mental alignment

FYI
This is where thee rallies have failed in the past. Will it happen again?
The big question. IMO, extended sideways motion means it has a good chance of failing.

nice inverted head and shoulder completed with a 720ish potential target if it can muster the strength to bust through 708-710
http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...

IMO, look out below, could be wrong though.
This is where they fail
Hammer down on 5 min.

i think you're right, this will turn into a double top if it fails, i'm mostly in cash waiting it out

Consolidation before another push up, imo : )

so you're calling for a 8%-10% up day? i agree the market was oversold at 766 but we're 50 points away from that now.... we might end 3%-4% green but usually the initial bounce/drop is the high/low point of the days prices if there is a big move in the first 30 mins

noooooooo.......I'm not calling anything....all I'm saying is the
rally isn't being sold into....it is a good sign for continued upward
movement.....
check your A/D, $TICK, Vol. etc....it should help guide you....

: )

Z alive

looks like its stuck again at 10:35

Yeah....it's stuck...though I haven't seen anything that would negate the current signal (yet)

It's toast, the 5 minute may be diverging, but I can't tell!

oh well.....

no biggie....if you see big selling, you know its time to get out.....
watch the VWAP and put up your fav. MA

Very high ISEE eod last night implies a move up , probalbly for a few days.Into the Full Moon on Wed and i have some sort of high for thursday though can be out by a day.

Last 3 times a high eod ISEE gave 2/3/5 days and 55/70/90 points.

A wave 4 triangle ? Timewise looks like the low of this 4 month arc down to be late March early April. Either 650 or 550 level at a current guess. Hopefully a big pop over the next few days to reload.

Sold my XLF at 6.90

this is a morning call.
mole! wake up! it's time to work. :)
great call on GS. thanks to mole and Keirsten.

when i called out ,,gap fill on the 60 min, ,, it could be a good risk reward area for a short scalp.witch i took.

i am not calling this the end of this bear market rally....

But i do believe that . with P-Call @ .65 ...going into Option X , next friday , they will not payout on all these Calls, so i will position my self short , and short this rally..!!

vxx- workon on bottom of 10 day channel now - last low 4 days ago = 105. now 105.8. SP - working bottom of 3/4-3/5 gap.

I have a hunch that "mole" slept in today...

woahhhhh!! just got back from the car dealer getting some work done and I see this!! good thing I was hedged and my short positions were pretty light

Zero chart has not been updated as of 10:20 est. Any help is appreciated.

Hey Asmith. I think Mole is on Hiatus today. Sorry

I think you meant "Shiatsu"??

gap fill here on the 60 min SPY

calling a gap fill already when we haven't even broken back through 700? good luck with that...

UUP broke support at $ 26.50 and is sitting right on its 20 DMA. If it can't hold that level next stop is $ 25.75ish and the market will continue to rally. That would be a good thing for the bulls. Dollar down =market up.

Shorter term we could see a bounce but intermediate term the case for UUP looks very weak. Also, UUP has formed a rising wedge since December. If it breaks the lower boundary it could fall very quickly meaning the market would rocket up.

Wow gold getting crushed! Spot at $897 currently. Target on DZZ sell is $880 spot

Elliott wave question. I'm seeing an A-B-C correction on the 5 Minute chart in FAS. I think that we're seeing Wave 4 of 5 up right now. Wave A is valid as either a 3 or a 5. Wave B is definitely a symmetical triangle. We just started C up. Is the triangle B possible in a Zig Zag?

Triangles almost always occur in 4 or B, so yes.

Thanks!

Long 1/2 pos in QID calls, TZA and TYP from 702

Respecting the monthly TL and recent channel with a tight stop.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=5&...

very strong TICK readings this morning, over 900 6 separate times and not under 0 once! FAS5Mar calls from yest doing great.

1417 on the tick @10:15 VERY HIGH. lots of stocks trading up at the same time. Has to be institutional buying

I got killed a little - but live to fight another day. Stops were in - follow the plan

I won't be able to post as much as usual today, but can report that a boat load of large block buys fired off at the ask PM and all the way up the price ladder this morning. my screen capture is on the fritz right now- will try to tweak it later on. G/L to all. Will post if I see anything else unusual. Be careful on the short side, but take your opps where and when you see 'em. :-) I've got 70.89 as R2 today. As of this post GS has averted that MA crossover and saved themselves for now.

thanks K for your msg. very informative.
great call on gs. you are allowed to call yourself princess. :)

FYI: Regarding the channel Mole has been showing, thus far we are the farthest outside of top channel line....i.e. this may....may be the begining of 4

Rally to 740 minimum, most likely 800 to 820 over a week to 10 days. The steamroller will come out at 715.

Hope know one here got killed on this gap up......


The VIX 60 min. ( bearflag i spoke about yesterday)
and 6 bars inside of the big green ,on the SPY , was the tell...

i started a short here.. hope we pullback some ,,now.

BOT QID MAR 09 70 CALL @3.10 , BOT FAZ MAR 09 85 CALL @14.30

I followed you in the mar 70s for 2.40. DId you see trading with Oscar about cubes?

No, I did not but I pulled up charts for QID and FAZ last night and felt that FAZ was hitting top of its channel and QID had long way to go up. QQQQ has not breached nov. lows yet and all others (xlf, spy, spx) have.

These charts are on: http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/


I just watched Oscar video and he is saying that Nasdaq still has to go down big time.


________________________________

most excellent day to be short Gold - glad I dropped nearly all my GLD hedge yesterday - GLL already up 4+ percent and ready to jump further as GLD shows no gap-filling ability so far today

Yesterday, the equity-only CBOE put call ratio came in at .59. To put this in perspective, it is one of the lowest ratings we've had year-to-date indicating no fear. There is another option indicator produced by the International Securities Exchange (ICE) which is a Call/Put ratio (the inverse). It's argued that the ICE measurement provides a more accurate measure of true investor sentiment, because it just measures opening transactions. Yesterday this index came in at 220, the highest reading in over a year.

Now does anyone really believe we will have more than a short lived bounce with all this call buying going on?

Still short ES and gold.

Exiting ES, YM and NQs here.
Potential level where a formidable retracement can occur has been reached

As much as I protest day trading, I seem to be doing quite a bit of it lately.

Shorting ES at 701-702. I find it interesting that I'm WAY more comfortable making money being short than being long. Will have to change the mentality once we get into primary wave 2.

I agree. I am with you here shorting.

I am long /ES from 687

God Mole, you are good! ;-)

zero is not working?

The Zero hasn't been updated since 08:16 New York time.

Long faz and tza at the open - will hold until brk of 701 on es

We broke outside the SPY channel Mole has been pointing out.
Though it has yet to be convincing

Sold (closed faz puts), I had bought yesterday by mistake and bought some QID calls.

I'm closing my long on XLF just under 7. Anyone else long this?

not jet looking to reload, sticking to the plan, I will sell only if we break 7

erikd post this:
http://www.screencast.com/users/erikdbrucker/fo...

I'm long FAS, gonna let it run. Don't see a reason to close yet.

For high level picture of whats happening from an economic pt of view.

do a youtube searc for "Marc Faber" he's my favorite.

Also this character http://www.michael-hudson.com (Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri) has an interesting high level pt of view.

If you read these two, you have I believe the correct high level view.

More functionally , Marc Faber says the speculation of 2009 will be to short bonds (which I believe).

Longed 1200 UGA at 23.02 for swing - stop 22.5

No Zero today....

Oh well....

the Zero is down for you too? Mine is stuck at 8:16

Yeah...I think Mole may be on hiatus.

Glad I went flat. This is too far, too fast IMO. Ready to short.
Any comments?

I will at least play "Fill the Gap" for the next half hour or so.

yeah...waiting to see if we break the 700 mark to possibly confirm minor 4??? else ready to go short too.

Loving Silver going down.Can't wait to see 9 bucks later in the months.

This crossed wires at 9:00
(US) REPORTEDLY SEC WILL NOT SUSPEND MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING - UNCONFIRMED SOURCE
** Note ** On Thursday Mar 12th House Financial Sevices subcommitee will hold hearings on mark-to-market accounting with SEC and FASB.

And then:
FED'S BERNANKE:STRONGLY ENDORSES THE "PRINCIPLE" OF MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING BUT BELIEVES CURRENT CONDITIONS MAY DISTORT MARKING TO MARKET - Q&A
- Believes mark-to-market accounting numbers can be misleading, must identify the weak points of mark to market.

Nevermind, wrong link... Sorry

Suckers giving another gift to the community lol

Shush, I am long /ES

lol

FAZ, SKF getting HAMMERED pre-market - FAZ down 14% and SKF is down 11%....

XLF is just below Erik's weekly trendline.

Am I glad I switched to a day trade mode after seeing the futes this morning. Closed out at EOD yesterday. Will today be a carbon copy of yesterday? Yesterday, right out of the gate yesterday I lost 7 k on my bullish call and ended up being ahead 2 k at the the end of the day after some very fancy trading. And this was doing it at work where I really could not focus much time on it. Wild swings. A lot of hard work, let me tell you.

I think we are still in a down trend. With mole's excellent research and all of the other charting including Fuzzy's pointing out of a lack of substantial or capitulary volume, one has to be convinced by the market that it has changed its overall trend. I just looked at a 10 day chart and a month chart and those are telling. A firm down trend. What concerns me is MyLifeMyTrade's position. I care about all on this board. This could continue to bleed lower with these one day wonders pulling in the bullish. Now MyLifeMyTrade could be 100% correct in his call but Mar and Apr puts could also present a slow bleed. Been there done that. Have to go with the trend. But perhaps a change is n the offing.

So at any point, we could see a blistering rally that teaches the bears a lesson that it does not go one way forever like Mole has said. But from what I have seen is these trial balloon rallies never make their intended upside target on the shorter time frames in EW terms. It starts out looking good, and when hitting the EW3, it moves down to an EW4 and continues going down or goes sideways for a while, then fails.

Good luck all.

Katzo could you identify who Fuzzy is please?

fuzzygreysocks

Market buzz: decision on M2M to be informed on Thursday.
I will dip into FAS to buy on the rumor. Might even be the thing that actually gets this bear into reverse for a while.

Nevermind, wrong link... Sorry

Could this be a rally thens ell the news event?

Jon Stewart vs CNBC round 2:
http://capitalcurrents.com

LMFAOAROTF (translation-it's fucking funny)
1. I got my ass reamed a few days ago for providing a Steward link
2. Bear Sterns rec. by Cramer is priceless, buy at 69. I am surprised someone doesn't do a tap dance on his face for all of the money he has lost people
3. Next time I hear someone say, "with my 29 years of experience . . ." I go the other way
4. Does anyone see a similarity between Cramer and Madoff's wife? I think could be same person. Really!
5. WTF is mole doing living in LA?????

OMG I remember when Cramer touted BS (could stand for something else right LOL) that day, and I thought those poor suckers. I can't believe this duffas is still on T.V. He sucks! It was a very funny video!

Yeah, Years ago I followed him and lost money, then I started shorting his
recs. and made money. Now I do not have the time or patience to follow the
"screamer."

He is all bite and no bite! and no skill @ picking stocks. He is just loud and obnoxious, which I don't understand why he is on, but I guess there are people who are just followers ;-)

We have all heard it so many times before, It ain't over til it's over... My itchy trigger finger remains in a cast ( from last time) until I see an uptick in the time series forcast...

SPX http://www.screencast.com/t/TnYaF79WZMI

I am bearish but this chart makes you wonder if we are near a bottom. This is a chart of the Dow in 1937 right before in bottomed vs the SPY today. You may have seen this before but regardless, it is pretty amazing. In the chart, the Dow bottomed immediately after I cut off the chart.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fishrman/folder...

wow. That's kinda creepy.

Watching the currencies closely: FXE, FXA, FXY, FXC, FXF. All appear to be 'basing' for an up move. If so, weakening US$ should result in a (continued) rally in oil. On radar: DXO, UCO, DIG.

Also, UYG and FAS attractive at these levels.

Current positions: SPY Apr calls, GLD Apr puts

Too many symbols to watch. I think I have ADHD.

Here's a stock you can look into, been buying some Aug 30P when they get below a buck
APOL - http://www.citronresearch.com/index.php/2009/03...

It looks like GS has outperformed most others inside the XLF group by far, over 3 months around a 0% loss. With XLF being shorted, GS has been doing well despite this pressure, (excluding last week). Last friday during the last minutes before the Close, the shorts jumped out of the GS ship like rats. Unless you have tight stops on GS you can get burned bad going short. Up speed is 10x the down speed. It seems like GS would be a good place to be if the market changed direction. Maybe WFC would be a better short since it has had a good recent week (long term bad); Bulls may jump out now??.

Do any of you use StockTwits? Just wondering if there is anyone that is worth following on there.