Breach & Breakdown

UPDATE 12;00pm EST: My apologies for my unusual silence this morning but I am battling a major issue with my TOS account. For some reason I am unable to re-launch ThinkOrSwim, which is also happens to be what the Zero indicator is running on. I have already spent over two hours with TOS customer support trying to resolve the issue. It seems that my IP is somehow being blocked from connecting to their TOS server. They are working to resolve the situation but have not given me an ETA of when this will be fixed. In the meantime my poor Zero subscribers are stranded, much to my chagrin. Fortunately however I kept my main trading system up and running overnight and it still appears to be ticking. So, I will start emailing the Zero chart manually every 10 minutes to my subscribers until this is resolved.

Quick glance at the market: Looks like we’re having ourselves a nice clean breakout here, courtesy of Citibank which reported announced a profitable first two months in 2009 (those cats got all the Fed assistance in the world – they should be so proud at their ‘achievement’ – LOL). Tape looks strong and buyers seem to be prsent, so this could be the Intermediate (4) consolidation we all have been waiting for.

Anyway, I got to run – need to start emailing those charts. I will be pretty silent until my TOS problem has been resolved.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 10th, 2009 at 11:03 am and is filed under Intraday Update, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

DMS425

Hey Lange
jigdaddy

wow if one would just go long every tuesday, i would imagine they have done quite well for themselves....they dont call it turnaround tuesday for no reason....looking forward to thunder thursday...
TomOfTheNorth

Bot QID @ 62.98

couldn't help it
molecool

NEW POST!
DoubleNaughtSpy

Breach! Sorry to steal your word, but it fits the RUT as well. :-P

http://tinyurl.com/asblby
rhae

screencast unbelieveable, I will try and get the right chart up

http://www.screencast.com/t/aJZkytNaPJ
molecool

Is this quotetracker? This is probably the prettiest chart I've ever seen! :-) Looks like fucking ESPN Sport Center.
rhae

Yes basically QT, but I use a chart overlay program on it then really pretty it up with hypersnap annotation, before again snapping it with Jing
rhae

It appears Sheeple will eat almost anything... soif indeed the wave 4 bounce has begun... I suppose a good time to start looking for targets...

The SPY 60m addict got a tremendous momo shot this morning... So I suppose it is possible for the boost to last awhile..

http://www.screencast.com/t/ICzaYlrnWTi

never sure what chart screencast might paste,sorry sometime I have to fix it
Joe8888

What is most interesting to astrologers is that every 8 years, Venus turns retrograde in nearly the same degrees of the zodiac. This year it turns retrograde on March 6 at 14 degrees of Aries.

In 2001, it turned retrograde on March 9 at 17 degrees of Aries. Back then, the market plunged to a primary cycle trough nine trading days later on March 22.

It’s possible we could see a similar pattern this time, for the Sun is also making an important “translation” to the forthcoming Cardinal Climax planets of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto, March 8-23. In the past year, such a translation has frequently (but not always) coincided with a sharp sell-off in stock indices.

And with a Full Moon on Wednesday,the 11th,, We will findout soon, If we rally big, or fall off a cliff,

I;m think,,, Fall off a cliff...!

Good luck
Joe8888

And a fall in to Option X, , Next Friday the 20th, fits in nicely .

With all those Calls being bought...IMO
Erikd

XLF daily set-up http://screencast.com/t/wmuagOWx
excellent risk/reward set-up to reload shorts....
mtst

Some lines on Faz this morning...

http://bayimg.com/bAOjCaABD
Stretch

Just to clarify, it is your expectation that March OTM puts on XLF don't look very tasty?
Douala

Good to see your picture pop up.
I am not a blond yet, but let me make sure I am interpreting your chart correctly. The area between the green & blue slash lines is the area to reenter shorts, is that right?
Keirsten

I've got SKF support @ 178.29 on a gap fill too. ;-)
Governator

Keirsten, I must ask why you try to chart the levered etfs, they don't follow charting, they follow the underlying with a very simple relationship. Why not just focus on the index tracking ETF?
Erikd

nice read... SKF http://screencast.com/t/IUKDqNYYtcg
Artrader

thanks for the confirmation Erik, That's How I had interpreted your weekend charts.
Lonewolf7107

Would you still recommend March FAZ 65 calls (FAZCM) @ $15 ??
Or would it be better to buy some XLF $7 March puts. ?

Thanks.
Erikd

depends on what level of leverage you want.
Keirsten

SPY Chart- daily with Fibs- the green line is the 20 SMA.

http://tinyurl.com/b2tqex
Alex

Mole, sign up for a proxy server and change you IP. This would likely be easier than emailing.
Artrader

I also use TOS and was having the same problem . It looks like it is fixed now.
TomOfTheNorth

SPX has closed last Friday's gap but neither NDX nor Q's have closed yet. Tempting.....
Implicit Trader

FYI: In my experience, on a SPY hourly Chart, when RSI nears it's upper boundry line (70), we tend to roll over......or at least that has been the case for over three months now......

food for thought
bergs

first target range for Minor wave four in the $spx.

http://screencast.com/t/QrJ1pJLp3q
Implicit Trader

For those who like Meredith Whitney

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123664459331878113.html
Dhalc2

Just to confirm, the target of this move up should be $SPX 740-780, and this should be followed by a drop into 5 of (5) and complete Primary {1} around 610. The rally following that point should be a high volume reversal. Is that the plan?
StainlessSteelChicken

That's my view but all we can do is see how it unfolds.
Dhalc2

Thanks, was just checking that I understood the blog entry correctly.
StainlessSteelChicken

Just FYI, if this is Minor 4 of Intermediate (5), the target on $SPX would be 740 - 780 (i.e. the range of Minute {iv}). 746 would be the 38.2% retracement of Minor 3. As Kierstin pointed out in the previous thread, we have already reached the 23.6% retracement.
T. Waffle

+1.

That's exactly what I am looking at.
MikeT

Thanks for the confirmations.
MikeT

Do we get an A,B,C within minor 4?
StainlessSteelChicken

We should expect Minor 4 to be a sharp correction (no shit, right?) since Minor 2 was sideways. It could be an a-b-c zigzag, but since zig zags tend to be uncommon in 4's, it might also be a triangle. In either case, I friggin HATE wave 4's.
molecool

Correct and correct - we are also running out of time to complete this wave, so I expect it to be short and sweet. There is a lot of pent up buying which should release itself in the next few days.
Leon

If so are you buying March calls on anything?
Keirsten

71.86 on the SPY is .236 on the retracement, just FYI.
Anna

thanks K
Keirsten

No problem Anna- having mega problems with one of my computers today or I'd post more...

Also- the gapped from 3/4 has been filled on SPY @ 71.61, which now becomes a line of support or resistance intraday depending on price action. 72.87 is also overhead resistance from 3/4 high. I am not seeing any mega selling at this level on time and sales at all yet, but we still have the potential for the hedge fund sell-off late afternoon we watched for many many days. G/L rats!
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

This wave 4 should last for the rest of the week. Get ready to see this chop around. :)
fuzzygreysocks

I demand VOLUME, hammit!
TraderTamas

So the high volume bottoming theory is out of the window right?

Since we're rallying on normal volume.
fuzzygreysocks

Nope.
This is another BS rally like the last few.
"3"s will conclude in big volume spike just like "5" will.
http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m47/fuzzygreysocks/20090309SPYEWT3volumespikes.gif
Implicit Trader

I gotta re-read your blog post. Not sure I understood it....
katzo7

Final market bottoms have huge down side volume followed in a few days by huge up side volume. This is not THE bottom, but may be a bottom.
fuzzygreysocks

Bingo!
This isn't even the bottom of "3".
This is a BS rally on Citi's "news" + some OPEC tailwind.
Totally short-able.
WiredPirate

Fuzzy I am in full agreement with you but tell me, how high do we have to go to invalidate the premise that we are still in "3"?
Vendrell

I'm puzzled by this rally as well. I posted on the last post that I was curious of the possibilities of this being "4 of 3 of 5, and not 4 of 5"

Also, I think every bottom of a "3" has fully breached the lower end of the Bollinger band. I don't think we ever did that.

Not sure if I'm just a sucker for confirmation bias; I am ready to get stopped out of most of my shorts at 721 (from 702).
katzo7

I hope fuzzy because I went in 60% short. Watching carefully.
But I have to admit, each of these run ups go higher than the past one in terms of total points. And volume is nothing great either.
slartybardfast

Hi Katzo, are you shorting financials, or SPY?

(or were you kidding :p)
katzo7

I have qid, tza, and srs. They are shorts.
Now are we even?

I may be in th ewrong place at the wrong time, but IMO, each rally was met with heavy selling. Mole may be right this time because of the breach. Going to stay short.
Anna

thanks Mole! Just as you said! :-) Also CNBC reporting uptick rule reinstated.
Douala

It will be reinstated in about a month

"Uptick Rule on Shorting Stocks Will Be Restored in About a Month: Rep. Barney Frank
Anna

I tried to edit and put that in, but you were too fast for me. :-)
Stretch

Shouldn't the financials be pulling back on that news? What gives?
Stretch

Oops, I was referring to mark-to-market
Anna

no that would rally the financial hard SKF down 52.00 points
de3600

My puts look so good
Anna

Do you mean SKF puts? if so me toooooooooooooo
de3600

yes sir
Anna

its "Miss" darlin! LOL glad you had a good day. Looks like tomorrow it's down more after hours :-)

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