Tuesday Zero Wrap Up

This was almost a perfect day for the Zero:

Had it not been for that damn TOS problem this morning – grrrr.. But once we were up and running again it gave us the mental fortitude to remain in long positions into the close. However, do note the divergence on the Zero Lite – we remained in positive territory but it’s shrinking. This may be a precursor to Minute {b} of Minor 4 – although it’s a bit early in the game. I frankly don’t expect Intermediate (4) to be done and over in 2 days. But we remain open minded as there has been much pent up buying momentum which may release quickly as the bears are taking a step to the sidelines. Also note the nice short VTA yesterday – it more than made up for a whipsaw early in the morning.

This is a possible scenario for the remainder of the week. I would like to see a nice clean {b} wave followed by a push into 740. You rats know the drill from here. One last chance to grab some puts and ride this Primary wave to the bottom.

I would however like to issue a little warning: It is possible that we will not see a very long and extended Minor 5 wave – it’s even possible we’ll see some kind of truncation as I think that 3 of (5) has consumed a lot of the momentum. So, I don’t expect us to necessarily drop into the 630 range – it’s a possibility but not a necessity. At this stage of the game we should not be too concerned about the downside anymore – we should start thinking about the long side.

Here’s an exercise for you rats: Take a look ‘around’ and note the symbols which participated strongly in today’s push up. These are our candidates for the onset of Primary wave {2} of c – those will be the ones which will print much dinero. I’m heading to the gym now for some much needed stress relief – by the time I come back I would like to see some charts and symbols – paleeeezzze!!

Cheers,

Mole

P.S.: I do welcome our new advertisers :-)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 10th, 2009 at 3:26 pm and is filed under EOD Wrap Up, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • SKF next retracement 155.00
  • NEW POST!
  • Jan
    EXC downgraded and broke descendng triangle
  • Jan
    MA alert.....S1 is 144.98
  • Agreed - good entry - I'm taking it.
  • geckoman
    One of my favorite longs right now is DNR. The other name I have been long is FCX. Don't get married to an opinion here. I am currently long but have been trying to hedge on the way up via SRS. I'll wait until SRS hits a support line and then go neutral if the support is taken out I am out and let the longs run more. This rally will end sure but make it while you can take it.

    DNR: http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folders/Jing/media/060c8e29-b3e3-40cd-8d07-aec05a8e0449
  • Trader Jose
    Going long oil ... alright!
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Looks like we have some important idiots buying this morning.Little late to the party.Shorted more XLF.
  • fuw
    XLF is also at the declining ma18 right now, and it has often turned at that point (ie Feb 26). Around 7,50 is also the intraday low from several days in the end of February, so it should work as horizontal resistance.
  • I get the feeling we chop around all day and end up with a big ol' fat doji of some sort. Just a gut feeling, but FAZ, SKF, and XLF are now respectively at their trendlines. Stochastics are moving back up near overbought, but the bulls are likely to be resilient enough to keep it from selling off today.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Sold my FAS .I will add to my XLF short if spx hits 730 and 740 .Teddy bear time :)
  • de3600
    I am one f those idiots still short skf :) but i have a stop in place made 1200 off the option
  • Vardoger
    I'll be shorting the gap fill at spx 735 and resistance at 741, 746. Another window closes at spx 752 but I'll be shocked if we address that today
  • J-So
    Mole do you think there is a chance that wave 4 becomes a triangle? This would last several weeks and take a 3-3-3-3-3 shape. IMO this would be a more effective way for the MM's to inflict maximum pain to both bulls and bears. Plus with OPEX next week this type of action could keep everyone guessing all week.

    It would seem an A-B-C would be finished by OPEX and prices would be much lower. Many put owner who bought over the last few weeks would be able to cash in profitably. Not the case with a triangle.
  • I think that is a low probability - not impossible. On the other hand we could see some kind of quick 4 followed by some kind of truncation where all the bears would be hoping for further downside which would never materialize. At this point I am much more concerned with the end of (5) and the beginning of {1}.
  • Woolly Llama
    Looks like BMC pulled back to fill it's gap, are you playing options on this? Apr 30s?
  • jigdaddy
    just like you said mole, these wave 4's are fast and furious...getting close to your 740 target now, are you looking to scale in at ths point or would you wait to see 740 first?
  • $USD (/DX) has gapped down roughly the same amount as it has the past two trading days. Furthermore, it recovered both days.
    For a further rally, imo we need to see it stay down. fwiw

    also
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/more-credit-tightening.html

    "Short-term borrowing costs are increasing as banks hoard cash and governments struggle to thaw credit markets ... “The market is beginning to think that the solution is either not politically possible, or we can’t afford it, or maybe there isn’t a solution,” said Bob Baur, chief global economist at Des Moines, Iowa-based Principal Global Investors ..." - You THINK!
  • Trader Jose
    "Furthermore, it recovered both days."

    UUP ($USD) continues to make lower highs and slightly lower lows ... is now bouncing off the lower boundary of a wedge that has been forming since December. In addition, it is testing $ 26.50 resistance.

    Based upon the above it's going to drop, IMHO. If it does, next support is $ 25.75ish.
  • Guano
    Is it possible that we are already in Minute {c} of Minor 4? If Friday's low of 667 was the end of 3, we had the lift to 695 on Monday (Minute {a}?), a retrace back down to 673 (minute {b}?) and now our current push higher (ES currently at 725). I kept most of my shorts on thinking I could cover on the {b} pullback, but am wondering now if it already came and went, and how high a {c} could go from here (still 740ish?) before Minor 5 kicks in. I have very little working knowledge of EW, so any thoughts from more experienced EWers are appreciated.
  • BigHouse do you 940 on the S&P?
  • 940 on S&P.

    I am long right now and I want whatever you smoking.
  • me too!
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    me 3 lol
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • 940?
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    If we get there i will be a big seller.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Well, since i am long FAS and short XLF.... I think i will sell my FAS now and wait for the slide in XLF. Pleasure in the upside...pleasure on the downside :)
  • roncofooddehydrator
    Sounds good to me. I'm long FAS and accumulating FAZ as it continues to drop. Eventually I'll sell off all my FAS and then just sit back as FAZ goes back up.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    When the slide comes and if we can fill those gaps the other day i will put the hedge back on and go long FAS. I think this is going to chop around for the rest of the week
  • rebozo
    Minor wave two was probably a triangle (complex) therefore minor four ...are we there yet?.....should be a simple correction....a zigzag or a flat. Im slightly long here and there is time to asses the strength of this move before anyone has to take a stand.
  • katzo7
    Just to point out this is a possibility also.
    http://livewithoscar.com/
  • bevets
    Love it! Thank you!
  • I lasted about 3 seconds on that site. The guy sounds like he's selling shammy rags.
  • katzo7
    Yeah, I agree, another Cramer screamer. Wonder what his track record is though.
  • pricey
    Track record is very good.
  • he's actually pretty good calling broader moves. his day to day trading is alright, but he's usually dead on about the bigger picture. he called the top of the market witihin 1 point about 6 months before it was printed
  • katzo7
    Thanks V8
  • Wowww ! Look at the freaking futures.... I guess wave B didn't retrace that much... !
  • Ok confirmed. Here it is.. just hit Bloomberg:

    http://oilservicestocks.blogspot.com/2009/03/c-cuts-ge.html

    Look to https://twitter.com/BostonWealthMan for breaking business news before Bloomberg, Reuters, Dow Jones
  • /ES is dropping, I still don't see it on the wire in TOS, but it must be moving around as the /ES is moving big for After Hours trading.
  • Trust me it is there. I am a registered investment advisor and the rules prohibit me from lying!!!!!! First post on Evil Speculator and I decided to make it breaking news before any of the wires!!

    Goes to show that I am a long time lurker here.. and find the website to be the creme de la creme of sites!!!!
  • Thanks for the tip. I'm off to bed, so ideally this will filter its way through the wires, drop the futures like a rock and I'll wake up to nice profits :)
  • Ok confirmed. C story on GE has hit the Bloomberg wire. Anyone see it?
  • Nope, not yet.
  • standard_and_poor
    Careful with wednesday open, it could be extremely choppy prior to plunge.
  • moneyfarm
    I see the potential for an inverted HS on $SPX; A push down to 69 would form the rt shoulder. Bought SPY March 70 puts going into the close. Also bought QQQQ April 28 puts and a starter position in QID earlier today.
    Shorted GLW at the close via April 10 puts:
    http://screencast.com/t/hy0LZ9HzkO
    Short SRCL from 48.90:
    http://screencast.com/t/scXxS19w6
  • I just don't see the open gap holding up. Not when it formed on a sub .80 CPC number. The gap closes and the H&S fails.
  • moneyfarm
  • Jan
    Long:

    FLS broke out of descending triangle and trying to touch 50EMA. Increasing volume & stochs pointing up
    JEC closed above top BB, trying to touch 50EMA. Increasing volume & stochs pointing up
    WYE broke above 200EMA
    CECO closed above 200EMA today
    CLF and CMP on future watchlist for long and I'm keeping my eye on those REITS I mentioned earlier. Many of the REITS had big gains today and I don't trust 'em at all.

    Insider buying/selling watchlist: PALM, PCU,MCF,MBI and RSG (Bill Gates raising stakes in RSG).

    Weirdest activity today: ROH
  • Ok.. let's see if the shit hits the fan tonight. Bloomberg was not aware of the GE downgrade. They are now!!!!!

  • Did you send it to them, or is it on the Bloomberg wire? I don't see it yet
  • Oh they have it alright. I spoke to the business desk in Singapore and sent it to them. They probably think I made up the report and they are waiting to check with the analyst in the morning. I will send the reporter another email and see why the holdup.
  • Well, when it hits the wire, my /ES shorts will enjoy it. I've been short for quite a while this evening. Looking for an overnight drop down to 50% fib retracement. I got in around 720 a few hours ago this evening.

    Here is my analysis: http://tinyurl.com/bkwf6u
  • Mole,
    Thought I was at xTrends, seems as if many of that crowd has come over to join the fun here! Few longs to throw in the bunch, you should see a higher percent return in strength if general market strength continues. Watch WYNN, WY, and KRE to lead strength in comparison to the DOW and major ETFs, if these three lead strength, we will see more strength, if they lag, watch for further developing weakness. Good luck tomorrow, it'll be a fun one!
  • Glad to have you here. I'll check those symbols tomorrow morning - turning into a pumpkin now.
  • Fubar1951
    2 comments.
    I have scanned my charts and see very little volume today. Like no increase from the last few days. Not bullish IMO. If we were getting a "fear" rally I would expect more volume.
    Second, watch the euro. It has been stronger today with the market. A break below 1.2625 will not be bullish. IMHO.
    Not saying we could get another push after a consolidation.
    FWIW
  • I agree. Futures are up on rather low volume. The gap will quickly fill. What that turns into after is a tougher guess.
  • It's a private report from C. If you want a copy email me..bostonwealth at gmail.com
  • Jan
    PALM....huge insider buying yesterday and 1 million volume spike at the close.
  • Breaking News on GE.. C cutting numbers. Taking target price from 12 to 9 . Reason for revision: Rising credit losses

    Yeah this report just game out an hour ago. Market really going to love this in the morning.

    https://twitter.com/BostonWealthMan
  • Keirsten
    Interesting that the same analyst maintained a hold 3/2/09 on it.

    http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D96M15H07.htm
  • Jan
    citi poking at GE is like Jeffrey Dahmer pointing a finger at Pee Wee Herman for perversion.
  • Steve
    tried to find a link to an article (see your twitter link) but couldn't, can you post a link?
    Thanks.
  • OldBlue
    All I could find, a what if story:

    http://tinyurl.com/bgyvk3
  • Jan
    boston, do you have a link to the actual story?
  • Oh shit - LOL :-)
  • C.C. Rider
    How about that zero! I wanted to buy, but no fuckin signal! Hmmmmmmmm?
  • Are you talking about the outage?
  • Jan
    I'm still analyzing charts, but I came across something very strange and was wondering if anyone here can shed some light.

    The after hours quotes for the following REITS (confirmed on my charts) show an after hours decline in the exact amount of todays gain:

    HCP,NHP,LRY,AVB,RYN
  • Keirsten
    Not sure what went on, but when I have doubts about my AH feed info I use the NASDAQ web site and it's been the most accurate for me when I question the numbers. See if this helps clear anything up. I put in all the symbols already so all you have to do is click on the tabs.

    http://tinyurl.com/dfee9h

  • Jan
    Keirsten, you are a doll. Just saw this so I'm going to take a look-see and bookmark the resource!

    Thanks!
  • Susannah
    AZO and ORLY showing the same.
  • They did the same thing end of December. Busted higher - consolidated - and then pushed further a few days later. I think what we might have here are long candidates for when we get near the end of (5).
  • Jan
    pump and dump, huh. those bastids.
  • OldChicago
    FLR. HPQ. DRYS. GLW. SNDK.
  • Steve
  • Nice risk/reward play on GS Mole.
    As I drive around Berkeley here I wonder how many of these banks will have the GS sign over the doors in a few years - after they and newco boutiques buy the accts and branches from Uncle Sam's dumpster sale. GS looks live on the chart still, eh?

    I got new shticky blahg material tonight. Going to try and stay more or less neutral until the M2M definitions start to float...
    http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb

  • EDC
    not sure if someone posted SHORT YEN TRADES
    try these
    YCL
    or
    YCS
    Double long/short of YEN.

    Maybe you already knew but I saw the request.
  • Thanks EDC - but those option spreads are even worse!
  • GMunni
    Crammer on the Daily Show Thursday. Wonder why CNBC wanted Crammer and not Santelli to appear.
  • Just updated the 70s-rerun scenario based on a 666 low - result is striking:

    http://jadedapprentice.blogspot.com/2009/03/70s-re-run-revisited.html

    Bottom line (if this scenario plays out): expect to see a whipsaw around the "old" bottom as we go up sharply heading into the fall, and look for peak unemployment to hit 11% by fall. At best we're going to plateau and eventually kiss 1000 again briefly next year before sliding back to the low 700s in 2014 when a brief recession creates a double-bottom. Exiting that recession we'll see a promising recovery cut short as our old friend stagflation takes hold, creating a final bottom in 2017 somewhere in the mid 600s. Buy at the peak of fear in 2017 and you'll be richly rewarded in the bull market that follows, which might finally surpass the 2008 market peak sometime after 2020 and the 2000 peak by 2025.

  • Well I'm glad we got that cleared up!

    ;->
  • I had misgivings about my earlier post regarding this chart. Never the less, it just confirms the action we saw on Zero today.

    Note: I keep my time zone set at PST; Ignore the Left Frame; Notice how flat MACD became and the oscillating TICKS..thus producing little Egde

    http://content.screencast.com/users/BalaB/folders/Default/media/e7b025cc-7dca-42e3-8784-d108c19b701d/2009-03-10-TOS_CHARTS.png
  • dumb question, what does the pink checkmark on the day/week market trend mean?
  • anotherone
    I know it looks like a check mark, but it actually signifies that the market will drop some before rallying in that time frame.
  • thanks, that makes sense
  • Mole,

    Here is my list of longs I'm planning to open

    GTLS, LDK, ANR, CPO, ADM, POT, NYX, PCU, PBR, UYM, BBT, MON, TS, TEG, ADM, AMT

    These all are fundamentally very strong stocks and will lead the market in the next rally.

    $NDX high target - 1129.00
    $SPX high target - 135.00

    Nandu
  • WiredPirate
    Missed you Indus. Glad to see you.
  • Hey Nandu,

    Great to see you.
  • Steve
    nandu, good to see your post...can you double check your spx #?
  • Opps.. I was dreaming.. 735. Sorry
  • Steve
    One more question, I didn't see AA on your list. I have been watching AA, and your trade in FEB caught my eyes. AA bounces off its LTL nicely around 5. I like to get some AA if we get the 5th wave in SPX, and just write calls against it. Is there anything you see now differ from what you saw in FEB?
  • AA is still im my long term play. I've got them in my IRA account. If aluminium price didn't improve in the coming months, AA is a risky play. Still its a play for the time being..
  • katzo7
    INdus, glad you are posting again over here.
  • TraderTamas
    Take a look at SOHU
  • SOHU is good too.. Just that its market cap is fairly low..
  • arak0
    no higher than 735? any chance they take this into the 780s like you said before?
  • hockeyfan
    Bighouse AFL looks good @13 or 10 thanx in advance i,m SLOW
  • milingz
  • standard_and_poor
    Wednesday-Friday Roadmap: Sprung Forward
    Hope everyone had a sounder rem last night.
    I'm away on holiday so this is a brief 2 pence worth.


    http://www.screencast.com/t/9p11f6CzaQD
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL6cGx5z3EM
  • sparhxc
    do you have your own blog that you regularly post these to?
  • standard_and_poor
    SPX closed bullseye on my 719 target, read roadmap above for what may occur down the tollway.
  • WiredPirate
    Be careful out there and thanks for the update. You're the best!
  • standard_and_poor
    Almost forgot: In honor of U-Tuesday: (Because almost everyone needs a trading partner now and then.)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB7rTfn4Ggg
  • Keirsten
    Continued safe travel S&P- btw- did you check out HOG today? :-)
  • standard_and_poor
    Thanks, you are sweet as usual. I'll look for dvd soon.

  • C.C. Rider
    Don't fuckin' wreck. Bugs in your nose, shit happens.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Keirsten
    If you think those poor bagholders have it bad, look at what happened to this one since the peak.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MLNK&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
  • LOL..."Gorilla Raped"....
  • It's on my long shopping list for tomorrow. Looks like it's got some upside and there has been a nice divergence in my MACD and stochastics.
  • ScubaSteve
    STP looked especially strong out of the solar sector (who's sector has been beaten down to a bloody pulp), and it's made the nicest basing IMO.
  • de3600
    HOLY SHIT look at the gap down today on avav
  • Peasant
    here are several that stood out: steel was nice (aks, stld, nue, x, mt, rio); industrial and farm equipment (cnh, cat, de, ag); energy services (jec, dwsn, fwlt) coal and coal machinery (aci, cnx, bucy, joyg); others (flr, fls, smg, agu, cni)and just about every bank and reit out there. holding calls in some of these since late last week. using macd and stoch, several seem poised for a nice run once primary wave 2 gets here.
    I still don't trust the reits but here are two that had great days (kim, vno)
  • workdog
    Keen an eye on the VIX as we continue this bounce. A break of its consolidation to the downside could mean a sizable run for equities. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p42066550833&a=122235108&listNum=6
  • rhae
    Taking a look at Banks $BKX today, an interesting falling wedge potential... If it breaks out, then I will look for the Wolf Wave target...

    http://screencast.com/t/8B6iXZ2nL
  • a contribution to the exercise part... finding today's best perfomers:

    http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&s=ta_topgainers&f=cap_smallover&ft=1&ta=1&p=d&r=1
  • Sweet site, thanks for sharing!
  • ur welcome... its a good site indeed..... it's my main reference for fundamental analysis and to check some charts and have a view of the broad market... that board Google Earth alike is pretty good
  • Douala
    BalaB

    Your link doesn't pull up the USD chart.
  • Hotchie Motchie....

    Sorry....Please go to Stockcharts and type in $USD. I had no notations on the chart so there was nothing important other than price action
  • A few issues as I see it.

    1) The $USD rallied back rather hardily from a sizable gap down (did the same thing yesterday too) yet we still managed to close up. However, when the meat of the USD rally took place, there was a point where the ES thought of maybe closing lower than we did (same with yesterday). I believe this action was also apparent with Zero.

    So, $USD, you're "On Notice"!

    $USD is still in a consolidation http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24usd
    Here's my SWAG: If the $USD can stay where it is (or even better, move lower) we 'll probably get a little more juice out of this rally.

    2) We moved through a formidable Retracement Level early in the day and closed near an even stronger resistance level. If employing a rigid RL trade system, the odds overwhelmingly favor a retracement lower (this supports a more moderated push up if we aren't done already)

    3) Erik is still seeing 7 of 7 (definitely supports ending this rally like, uh...now)

    Lastly,
    4) Odds also overwhelmingly support a weekly close up on the S&P & DOW

    Conflicting elements for the very short term
    p.s. SWAG (Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess)
  • rhae
    I agree about Uncle Bucky... I went 2X short USD on Monday... just an odds thing and very extended as well as getting long in the tooth
  • Of course we are not sure what the MMs are gonna do before the Uptick takes into effect...perhaps a finanl plunge before a new bull market...?
  • shifty
    uh yea if you consider post 1990 Japan equities a bull market

    you can take the final plunge (post 3/15/09) part to the bank though.
  • Harmon
    Ok so I guess all that crap about the planets being in their 5th vertical inverted optically energized enigma got it up the ass today!...dry
    So if twinkle twinkle little star appears tonight what should I do.
    Give back all the money I made on GE and XLF calls today.../
    I was up all night long telling my GF I can feel it ...it's coming and I can feel it....
    Well with the support of Mole and TK and 20 yrs of trading...I was right last Friday.
    Go moon yourself twilight starlight charting tweebs.....
    Bars Open!
  • yazzer
    you bought in waaaay early - prob got back to even if that....keep making those calls everyday though (I looked at your profile) and someday you're bound to be right - just not making any money...LOL!
  • Harmon
    GE 7.5 calls for .50 and sold today for 1.50 is not breaking even by my
    math..... Look at the volume on Wednesday...that was a dead give away...
    XLF .70 and 1.15 was not as good of a trade but with all the M2M news it was
    a crap shot..... I do admit though that the post was a little on the edge
    and my in box is paying for it tonight...
    Good Trading this week
  • jacksoo
    So you feel vindicated in criticizing those that use TA, EW and other statistical methods when you're sole source of inspiration was a 'feeling' !? - good luck with that one, as a long term strategy it might be a bit prone to failure.
  • Harmon
    No in fact I base much of my trading decisions on EW...I just got off on
    reading a few post for those that follow the stars.

    I have 5 emails already...geesh why did I do that post.

    Get in there and get em!

    Good trading my firend
  • jojo
    I think weve ended Wave 3 on 6 of march, I expect wave 4 to finish between 740-780 SPX. Then down for the last bearish leg (600 spx??)
  • JohnyWalker
    If we end in the 780 area id be well primed for truncation.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Everyone on TV land is bullish .One day of green and the bull market is back lol
  • Thanks to the uptick rule, I only fear the low volatility once we get up there.
  • yazzer
    For the ride up - how's about just doing some ETFs - 2x and 3x?
  • TraderTamas
    Shorting FAZ and ERY will probably be the most profitable trade. LEAP puts.
  • Trader Jose
    Longs:

    REVU, JAVA, RRGB, OZM, AMSC, AMG, ARD, COH, KMX, ICA, BBND, MDR, GE, MEE, NNI, MEDX, ARO
  • GoodKing
    Nice breakout on BWLD, stop ~ 29 Target: 43.
  • moneyfarm
    Some ideas for longs:
    STAR, ROM, RIMM, NFLX, MOS, SNDA, TNH, CAM, BLK, APSG
  • Fujisan
  • moneyfarm
    Yes, I'm looking for the same. A push down to 69 to form the rt shoulder would be very nice.
  • de3600
    Evil stock AZO getting smashed in ah trading down 7
  • Susannah
    Not for me, maybe it's a misquote? Hmm, I see it says that on Yahoo Finance. Doesn't show up for me on IB, though. 157.02x157.83
  • de3600
    saw it on market watch maybe a mistake
  • GMunni
    Bullishness abounds. I like it.
  • Anyone having issues with ToS futures quotes
  • mdszj
    I am on webbased TOS right now - futures seem ok
  • they are ok for me too.
  • ZigZag
    SPX is getting close my fellow rats......

    Should be a nice smooth landing.....What could possibly go wrong? :-)

    http://tinyurl.com/dbe462
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