Perfect!

UPDATE 2:29pm EST: Boy, this has been almost a perfect pattern to the upside.

SPX ran by the script and we find ourselves in my target zone. I do expect a bit of resistance here but this might be a good spot to start loading up on some puts. Have been chatting with a friend of mine in the last hour and need to go through the previous thread to pick apart some of your contributions. DLTR was a good one IMHO.

However, for the rats among you who think this is the start of 1 of (A) of {2}: If you look at the wave pattern an argument can be made that we completed (or are close to completing) a motive wave, which might be {1} of 1 of (A) of {2}. So, this would now be followed up by an {2} of 1 zigzag. I just wanted to throw it out there as it is no implausible. Also, this would line up with Tim Knight’s H&S scenario – so, let’s see how the tape behaves before we back up the truck.

But don’t be scared – be happy!!

Life is short and I don’t think you’re happy enough! That’s right – I teach you to be happy!

UPDATE 3:09pm EST: Okay, last hour – moment of truth. Observe my notorious index grid:

Pretty oversold – aren’t we – I also see a nice divergence happening.

UPDATE 3:22pm EST: Attention EVL-Mart shoppers – disqus seems to be broken again. Not only are they labeling people’s comments as spam, now they switched their servers into 1st gear – it’s f…ing crawling. Sorry, but this is out of my control.

UPDATE 3:48pm EST: Boy, that’s a nice EOD rally – we haven’t seen that in a long time. I actually grabbed a bunch of SPY puts around 744 but then decided to cover them at 745 when the Zero was pointing up – phheeewww – not a moment too soon. Might uncover them at the bell – let’s see how far this takes us.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 1:36 pm and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • NEW POST - AGAIN!
  • I think you guys should wait for a sell off before getting any shorts.

    THis bull market is just getting warmed up....THe M2M decision is not due that soon....further more there is the uptick rule coming...Bears are taking their profits.
  • Vardoger
    Great points. They change an uptick rule and alter the M2M and the economy is GREAT. No more deleveraging, no more illiquid banks, no more runs on credit card lines, consumers are demanding new products and booking vacations, the massive unemployed are all finding cool new jobs and are suddenly qualified to work in fast growth sectors, GM and Ford selling cars again because I know I want a new car right now as much as I want to go out and buy that second house because the banks are just dying to throw me the cash. Thank God we fixed it
  • I think you are missing the point, your argument is based more on fundamentals....that has been priced into the market.

    If MM/short sellers don't beat down the market, there will not be any investors like Warren Buffett or etc...who wants to sell off their holdings. When the market recapitalize with some investor protection, this could possibly create a short to medium term uptrend and.shorts will be running for cover until the buying loses steam.
  • Vardoger
    Priced into the market? My point is what the hell are you pricing in to the market to justify S&P 800 or above? I know it isn't earnings! Tell me its money coming out of treasuries or something and going into stocks, just don't hype me on M2M and a "bull market". Where is demand going to come from? I can see a 5 or 6 month rally but to think this is a bull market is ridiculous. Short gold for the next 24 months and walk the walk. How the hell can we have a bull market when our government is about to be insolvent?
  • Squidman
    As I suspected earlier, close right on the last trendline. Gap down tomorrow Erikd?
  • Vardoger
    We filled the gap from 2/27 within a half-point. My count may differ from others but I still have us in (iv) of 5 and most likely just finishing (a). I'd like to see a pullback to ~717 tomorrow, rally into Tuesday or Wednesday up to ~771, then commence (v) of 5. Their is still a gap at ~676 I'd like to see closed before we go fill the one at 943.

    *Do not take this count seriously or be confused by the labeling. Best position right now is still flat IMO until the count is more recognizable
  • What happened to good old fashioned charts?
  • Vardoger
    Fuck Jing. I am through trying to make it work. I downloaded My Dropbox as well and couldn't get that to work either. I've got charts for days. trendlines on everything, got a nice cup and handle on the TNX as well. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. fuck jing
  • NEW POST!
  • Trav
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79337359546

    Expand this chart to a 2 year view. For the entirety of this economic crisis, the MAs on CPC have not been at lower points. Other low points have marked the start point of fairly major declines. See also the ISEE sentiment indicator that put in a 52H the other day, even far in excess of late Dec, where there were a lot of puts being closed out into a rally that ended a week later.

    Unless this indicator which has been a good contrarian trade indicator for 2 years has stopped working and suddenly, everybody and his mother who piled into calls is wrong, this suggests a plunge soon. Still holding short but w/ some Apr XLF calls as a minor hedge.
  • Douala
    Trav...

    Great piece of work...+2

    You just made a bad day turn good.

    Thanks!
  • Agrrrrrrrrrrrrrreeed.
  • Erikd
    XLF has hit max pain... the moment of truth is upon us... still short....
    XLF weekly chart http://screencast.com/t/s9ZSXRRf
    XLF daily chart http://screencast.com/t/Oi9nEKgJlV
    XLF magnified view http://screencast.com/t/H8Lcwadmtf
  • Douala
    +2pts for sticking by what you believe.
  • Douala
    I sticking with you Prophet... Holding FAZ from 56. Like you told me trade the plan. ;-)
  • LeTrader
    Erikd,

    Thanks for the charts.

    Quick questions - are the other 6 indicators still in tact for the plan?
  • Erikd
    5 for 5. aapl,eur/usd no
  • Publius Federali
    Erik, just reread a reply you wrote me a couple weeks back about sticking to the plan. Keep my emotions out of it. Just picked up some XLF April 5s at the close. I bought some other stuff a little early but still on plan. Sold a large chunk of my longs up here as the plan calls for a pullback now. It is tough to keep the emotions in check though watching the drawdown that is infecting my account. But then again, you have to take the bad with the good. Thanks as always.
  • Dude, how long have you been short?
  • Erikd
    Dude,have you just started reading my posts?
  • Squidman
    Repost: Close on the last trendline, likely gap down tomorrow Erikd?
  • Erikd
    yes
  • mtst
    Hi Erikd

    I'm trying to learn bout your method. In these "critical" conditions is there any early sign of action?

    I know close is the key issue...but printing a 15min or hourly candle above critical lines give`s you a hint that these line is going to fall? maybe not friday/tomorra but yes next week or so?

    Btw I`m don`t believe these lines will be broken but, if so, I guess some retracement to re-test lower key levels (probably 7.7/7.44 zone in this case) are likely anyway- just as emergency option idea to close the plan in better condition if the weekly upper lines are broken ;)

    Thanks in advance
  • Erikd
  • jigdaddy
    do you know of a world wide catastrophe that is about to happen because front month options just took it in the arse....i am holding strong and your reassurance is great to have along w/ atillas but this market has to crater within the next week for us to be profitable right?
  • Erikd
    i do not know of any catastrophe.. i trade based soley on price action on charts. i have been trading the plan since jan, taking profits and repositioning along the way i have been using proper money management allocation. EOW is tomorrow and XLF will tell us whether the trend stays intact.
  • jigdaddy
    i know i was just joking with you, more of a compliment really of how you really just stick to the plan and do not let emotions get in your way....i've been scaling in since tuesday which i thought was an appropriate time and didn't have the ability to reposition and capture profits as the trade has been going against me which is no biggy as i am pretty well averaged in but it is nerve racking seeing some prior profits dissappear in a short time when they i worked so hard for them...luckily for me, most of my puts are in april but i do have some front month options that are hurting...looking forward to seeing how this plays out as it is going to be another valuable learning lesson.
  • rhae
    SPY volume down 10% on daily average... but has little control over Mad Cow Disease
  • Long FAZ @ 41.5

    Suck it, bulls, please give me a chance to buy it even cheaper
  • on a 20 day TOS chart SKF retraced to the lowest fib level almost perfectly @ 142.54 Good time to jump in?
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Looks like a little profit taking here lol
  • jigdaddy
    surf sucked..windy...i thought i would come back to ES around 730, nope..you bastard rats have let me down :-)
  • Trader Jose
    Watch your language, pal. That's rat bastard's!
  • Agree with Señor Trader - if you insult us - do it right.
  • Trader Jose
    Exactamente, Don Mole ... hmmm, prefiero mole Poblano ...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mole_(sauce).
  • money changer
    Mole

    Let us not forget that the 25 & 50 daily moving averages tend to act like magnets on moves like this... FH
  • rhae
    SPY smacked into some overhead supply, at 75.70 look left ... same on Moles S&P chart
  • In case you missed it - MTM will be 'modified' http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090312/meltdown_accounting_rule.html

    Should help push this pig to the high 700's... Then...! BLOO HOO HOO HOO HA HAA HAAAAA!
  • DeepSlackerJazz
    Scaling into Apr SPY 70 puts and Apr IWM 37 puts.
  • mtst
    Congrats in your count Mole seems you were right (once more)

    Cheers :)
  • Don't jinx it!!
  • CC rider
    This move will end up capitulating the bears and trapping bulls that think a bottom has been set. Dow 7200 is another hurdle to the upside. A positive jobs report tomorrrow could result in a shortable high.
  • Vardoger
    Jobs was today. Data for tomorrow:

    Mar 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag.
    Mar 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil
    Mar 13 08:30 Trade Balance Jan
    Mar 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel
  • Erikd
  • The daily trend looks a little higher than you drew it Erik. Also, the 50 EMA (red) now sits at $8.98. It seems there is no reason to get nervous unless it breaks that. Even then. A sustainable V-bottom in the financial index on huge bullish sentiment?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/SRSFinance/folders/Jing/media/4940e863-be64-473a-8af6-dd2991ffdf8c

    I'll be more nervous if it goes to that line and then pulls back in orderly fashion for a second run at it.
  • mtst
    Nice to see you Erik :)

    You`re a warrior indeed :bow:

    Adding more FAZ probably tomorra -hope we don`t gap gown -never know with these MM lol

  • Reza
    Erikd, thanks for coming. We were all worried.
  • TraderTamas
  • Erikd
    XLF was at the above trendline structure on the above chart yesterday at the close. XLF has moved thru those lines and is testing the lines on the charts i posted today before the close. XLF downtrend pattern is still intact. XLF is retracing upward and is testing the bears intent. lets see if the bear wakes up tomorrow as EOD tomorrow is the EOW. weekly trends are in play...
  • DJ
    I am in shorts with you. This may be the noise you are talking about. Time will tell whether Erik is right or not. I think he is. It tested him 2 weeks ago, when he was long xlf and everybody was short xlf and everybody saw what happened after that. We will see it one more time again, how Erik's trend lines work. But I agree with some of you that everybody should have their own trading plans. Erik follows a system, so let him follow it. We chose to follow his system. and there is nothing wrong in that. as long as we are learing and developing our own trading plan with it. In tough times even saints and sages are tested. Erik is being tested right now. I know he will come out as winner by next friday.
  • peterey
    what about he other 6 indicators? are they stil lin play?
  • Erikd
    core 5 indicators are 5 for 5
    aapl and eur/usd is not
  • Squidman
    I think he re-drew it to the wicks rather than bodies, which I guess is fair.
  • Erikd
    see above 3 charts above, drawn from closes in the above 3 charts
  • slartybardfast
    That's exactly what I was thinking too Tamas.
  • Stretch
    XLF coming back to earth in closing minutes. Wow, I almost panicked.
  • tradingmom
    So Mole, should we be getting nervous yet?
  • wow this is really unbelievable. i'm DEFINITELY out at the close

    up over 100% today on my front month calls lmao
  • I have to say I'm impressed with you guys who are so agile you can make great money on both sides of the tape. I tend to sit out the rallies and then look for entry points to go short again. It's a real skill to be in and out so fast on the turns.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    I think i saw Atilla jump out of the window
  • Vardoger
    no, but i'd betcha most of his followers are one more green bull dick away from it
  • innatedc
    Highly unlikely......
  • bears are capitulating on XLF left and right... this is nuts
  • Erikd
    not yet
  • MaxPainMan
    the pain, the pain...
    still holding shorts...
  • Count_de_Monee
    Oh the humanity.

    I feel like I've been raped by a herd of bulls.

    The countess will not be pleased...
  • LOL!! That's hilarious
  • Erikd
    do not fold them
  • willc
    Are you still holding all the March options? You believe those can recover the value given theta will accelerate as headwind against you from here?
  • Erikd
    yes
  • TraderTamas
    We're going to have to freaking crater next week. That being said I still have FAZ calls which are currently down 90%.
  • jigdaddy
    hahaha...me too....all my puts are aril w/ exception of mar 70 spy put which got bent over today like a little ho...dammit
  • willc
    Sorry to hear that. The rebound again came without too much volume. It is mainly due to short squeeze, not any real purchasing yet. However, if we stay at here for a bit longer will attract real money purchasing.

    I added to my March puts today. If the market doesn't tank soon, those puts will start to lose 20% a day.

    What did you do with your calls on FAZ? Hope you at least took some of that money off the table couple days earlier.
  • El gAto
    MArket seem to think EEM / FXI can pull the US markets " up and out "for the next few months..

    BKX is breaking its downtrend from mid september. See Richard Dochian's rules
  • Bill Walton
    What happens with QQQQ as we reach peak in SPY?
  • im worried about the EURUSD thing and that huge H&S...at least we should test the neckline
  • Hanz
    that is a lot of ticks. broke 750 wow
  • CLOSING OUT ES shorts...I can't tell which Month I'm being quoted on TOS.....Something is very goofy
  • Vardoger
    For those rats who don't trade fut's but use them for charting/ volume= type in /esm9, not just /es. BTW, most volume has gone with the M9 contract today fwiw
  • ahhhhhh!!! I'm so bummed......My H9's quotes we're switched unbeknown to me intraday to M9.....
    Initiating bitch session with Customer Service

    There was a 4 to 5 pt discrepancy.....I thought I was buying one and instead it was the other......bad form.....
  • katzo7
    A doji just appeared on the
    5 min. Does this mean anything?
  • It means I'm fuckin' tired of waiting for the sell-off...LOL

    Hey katzo, glad to see you're still here. I was out all day and just got back - had to get up some nerve to look at my account. Not too bad (as long as I think about it in the 'proper' light): Account is down 6.8% from trade entries - more like 15% from high water mark. Now if we reverse course tomorrow, maybe I can salvage the month. In the meantime, I think it's time for some more Jack!

    Cheers!
  • katzo7
    Still alive but had to switch from martines to ice water.
    LOL
  • GUYS I think mole has it right... it couldn't be more perfect technically

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SbljInJQRVI/AAAAAAAAAI8/HRd_esUu76M/s1600-h/sp.jpg

    divergences all the way... at Fib retracement at the same time with intersection of upper line of channel, lower volume day, divergences... what more can we ask ?
  • Mother F'er,,,,

    If you're using TOS and following RL, toggel between ESH9 and ESM9.....
    M9 is following 2Sweeties plan while the other isn't

  • slartybardfast
    "Pretty oversold - aren’t we " -
    Assume you meant overbought.
  • i think he was ironic
  • not yet overbought on the daily, but pretty much everything else is
  • ehmu

    ADS trying to break out above horizontal res at $32, after four up days it may need a rest first. This $32 also looks like a 50% fib level.
  • Takitandrun
    Been legging into May Spy Puts all day - giving myself lots of time. No greed here!
  • Squidman
    Ha, those SLV puts still haven't budged......happy happy joy joy
  • Ed
    ok. sold all my longs and going short. I don't think we can push past the 745 resistance. I'll slowly start accumulating positions going short - primarily financials. Probably looking at long SKF and SPY puts. We'll see how this plays out for tomorrow and into next week. I don't expect a lot of movement in the next week, but hopefully we'll get it.

    Had a great run with the mole indicators going long the last few days (GS, GOOG, puts/SKF, FAS). MA was a great call by the way. Closed those call options out a few minutes ago as well. Thanks mole.
  • Ed
    Looks out I jumped out too soon by 20minutes. Looks like I'm accumulating more as we go higher. Could be more pain too. . . .

  • Wow...The site is barely loading......SSSSLLLLLLLOOOOOOOWWWW
  • It's fucking Disqus - the site is loading - just not the comments.
  • mole, so even if we're in 1 of A, we should expect a pull back right ? I also see divergences but the one thing I don't like is that EURUSD just shoot up like crazy... a strong Euro is good for the stock market as of late, this is how they correlate...
  • Exactly.
  • mole i really tink its almost perfect:

    it couldn't be more perfect technically

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SbljInJQRVI/AAAAAAAAAI8/HRd_esUu76M/s1600-h/sp.jpg

    divergences all the way... at Fib retracement at the same time with intersection of upper line of channel, lower volume day, divergences... what more can we ask ?

    althoguh now we're 1 point above...
  • MaxPainMan
    i was about to say "F**K this, I'm going long",
    but then i realized that if i were to say that, then that means i should be shorting more....

    am i going insane? i think so!
  • Callie
    Maxpain it is! Seeing the market shoot up and not being long, Thank god I only have a tiny short position. Anyone else out there beating yourself up? Of course I have only myself to blame. So many charts were giving massive buy signals but I wanted to wait for that perfect entrance point . Dear Mole, am I right seeing 5 waves up and does that not make the case for being in wave 1 of A?
  • Guano
    haha, right there with you. got stopped out earlier on some shorts, and as the mkt kept pushing higher I was getting that feeling of capitulation on the rest of my shorts. That's been a good sign of a reversal point in the past so I got back in with more shorts! unfort. I picked FAZ, vs. my usual ES. I'd be about unch'd on the ES right now, but financials are relentless so i'm -2 on FAZ as of now. Oh well, still better off than if I'd never set stops to begin with.
  • katzo7
    No, you are not going insane, you are going MAXPAIN.
    LOL
  • Vardoger
    V8-- he's most likely trading the /ESH9 still and that's how he got the 747 fill..(reply from last thread)
  • Hanz
    Im new here. Do any of you use Williams%R? It looks like we're going up right now....
  • Glad you mentioned that - I wouldn't have noticed :-)

    Just yanking your chain - welcome!
  • Hanz
    My other indicator is the S&P 500 :)
  • rake
    IYR puts based on 30day chart
  • CC rider
    IMHO, the close today will be the tell for tomorrows action. If we close at or near the highs, expect more upside tomorrow. My target has been 800 , maybe a shade higher. I'll start setting shorts there.
  • Statistically closing at the day's highs does not guarantee more upside. If we get it, I'm betting it's muted. All those call options expiring with massive profits next week? I don't think so.

    Anyway, just another perspective. Hope I didn't sound obnoxious. It isn't intended. GL with your trades.
  • Happy Happy Joy Joy - LOL.....
  • J-So
    Stochs turned down on 15, 30 and 60 min SPX charts. RSI divergence on all 3 as well. We could've topped at 748. Stochs turned up on the VIX also.
  • AKJ
    $vix kissed both the bottom of its bollinger band and 200 day moving average on the daily...
  • SwissCheez
    Mole, my comments keep disappearing. Any problem with Disqus?
  • Long SRS @60.97
    Long QID @56.73
    Long SKF @149.45
  • House of Cards
    Long FAZ at 44.
  • Flatlander
    Just bought the last of my FAZ. Now have a full position and will not buy more. Average price $50.72 per share. Wrote March 65 calls against half of it, sitting tight on the rest.

    If it closes March 20th at $65 or greater I may be done for the year. After the past month I need a vacation.
  • Vendrell
    Took losses on my short futures, then rolled them over to March 740 puts. Getting 2.5x bang for buck (as long as we don't stay above 740 going into op-ex).
  • DZZ
    OMG HHJJ!
  • katzo7
    ????
  • DZZ
    OH MY GOD HAPPY HAPPY JOY JOY :-) <<<---- smile ;-) <<<<---- smiley wink
  • Basilfawlty
    I will be closing my SPY March 70 calls today.
    It has been an extremely profitable 3 days.

    Thanks Molecool.
    Thanks other "forumers".

    This is the best trading blog/board.

    Over and out.
  • Ed
    I agree. Today has been a great zero day. I keep moving my stops up on my long positions and nothing's been stopped out all day. Going to close out most of my long positions in the next hour and pick up some going the other way.
  • Basilfawlty
    I intend to wait til tomorrow (if we have a spike up) or Monday before possibly playing the other direction.

    Good luck
  • Count_de_Monee
    Well done Basil.

    You were right. I was wrong.

    i'm still short but holding in there.
  • Basilfawlty
    I am hoping to go short between SPX 770-800 (or earlier), depending on my indicators,.
    I will sit on my hands til I see a clear entry point with a good risk-to-reward ratio.

    Good luck.
  • DZZ
    The banksters are scared and will not hold positions into the weekend. IMO
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    I feel i'm the only one short here lol
  • you're not, I pulled the trigger way too early today and bought a bunch of SPY puts :-( I should have listened to our great leader! :-)
  • Douala
    Nope... FAZ has taken me to the cleaners... Oooooo the humanity !
  • anotherone
    Been scaling into SPY Apr puts all day.
  • peterey
    i am short but i could also be running short of confidence after a tape like this
    no pause,... if we close up this last hour it would be the 9th in a row

    how do you guys keep your confidence level "up"?
  • katzo7
    Look at the charts, stochs, MACDS, etc. Divergence all over the place.
    While it may finish at HOD, IMO, this market is toast

    AND THIS IS WHAT IT IS ALL ABOUT. MMs relieving people of excess cash
    Those without faith (in Mole le cool) get taken to the cleaners.
  • roncofooddehydrator
    I'm with you. I love pain (or at least that's what I'm telling myself).
  • Publius Federali
    I am with you too, just another one of those stretches of misery while the world seems upside down to us. Retail sales up....oh, because gas prices are up, that's got to be good for cash strapped taxpayers. BofA and C are profitable....I don't know of a bookie who loses money on his book making, the problem is their investments not their operating business. This is why we trim as we go down. Stupidity is contagious, especially when we are really oversold.
  • MikeT
    *raises hand*
  • Jan
    No Big......I'm short also.
  • Vendrell
    Got more short just now.
  • katzo7
    Smart move
    Longs should sell IMO
  • DZZ
    me too. Isn't the other side over now! SRS is looking tasty.
  • Hell no you aren't. Viva la 2Sweeties!
  • katzo7
    You just went in?
  • yes, ES...not heavy but a respectable amount.....I may close out a few
    to lock in some profits should we move up higher
  • what he said
  • katzo7
    Oohhhhhh no. I am wit ya.

    Wonder if the f**king MMs pulled in enough $$ yet.
  • I am too... dont bail out... this is max pain.. it gets better from here..
  • Squidman
    I've got a smallish FAZ position, lotto play on this week's long profits. Patiently waiting for the rest.
  • I am there with you too.
  • Count_de_Monee
    Guilty as charged. Still short and reaching for katzo's KY
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