Lines In The Sand

I was looking at my charts tonight and felt the needs to spell out some important ‘must not go zones’ for the next few trading days:

Looking at the wave pattern which started on March 6th it’s pretty obvious that we could easily count this as a motive wave. So, at this point we have three possible scenarios:

Blue: We are done consolidating and will now drop into Minor 5 of Intermediate (5). Target is the 610 - 635 region.

Orange: We just completed {a} of Minor 4 of Intermediate (5) and are now dropping into {b} until about the 710 region (700 max), followed by a push into 780 - 790. We must not breach that zone and foremost of all we must not breach 804.35, which is the bottom of 1 of (5). If we do breach that zone we are most likely in the green scenario:

Green: We completed Minor 5 of Intermediate (5) and thus Primary {1} on March 6th. We also completed, or are close to completing Minor 1 of Intermediate (A) of Primary {2}. We will also descend into 710 but to complete 2 of (A), which will be followed by a monster rally into 3 of (A). There is a faint possibility that we don’t even drop from here and directly proceed upwards and not stop until we touch 780, but based on what I’m seeing in my momentum indicators I do not give this scenario a lot of credence.

In terms of probabilities I would probably give Blue 40%, Orange 40%, and Green 20% as of tonight. Of course as the tape unfolds I will follow up with updates - unfortunately there is no scenario that I would give a clear preference (50% or higher) at this point.

There you have it rats - Mrs. Evil has been waiting with dinner for 30 minutes now and it’s probably already cold. But based on the comments I received tonight (some of them a bit emotional) I needed to make sure you rats are up to speed.

I personally will play it very small going forward until we either see a clear sign that we drop from here or that we are nearing the point of no return.

See you on the other side.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 8:46 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.