NEW POST!

Once this tape does finally push through the resistance ( 805 or so) it will be like a pot that's been boiling with a lid on. It will explode! I can't fight the tape and finally went long.

Dude, it already exploded this morning. You are chasing the tape.

ISEE equity printed this morning...277!! Holy shit.

If this index has any contrarian value anymore, jfc, a month ago I'd have all-in shorted this

NEW POST

I love the complacency that's starting to set in.
"higher stock prices!!!' "higher stock prices!!!' "higher stock prices!!!' "higher stock prices!!!'

I think , as other have said, we have a bit more to go on the upside but onset of complacency has gotten here pretty fast.

I'm feeling bearish and wondering if I'm an idiot. I jumped in some SKF this morning. All this bullish talk has got me really freaked out....

$SPX:$XEU still below 5.98.......not bullish for the spx......in fact, resistance.....
max resistance...the 50 ema........6.08......

A retracement from 804 has already happened and now we're right back there with minimal pullback. That ship has sailed...

the question is, what to buy for move to 835-850?

The market is going to break through 805 today and continue higher. This is a big reason why:

Official says China to continue buying US debt
Monday March 23, 6:43 am ET

Chinese central bank official says country to continue buying US government debt

BEIJING (AP) -- China will continue buying U.S. government debt while paying close attention to possible fluctuations in the value of those assets, a vice governor of Beijing's central bank said Monday.

Investing in U.S. Treasury bills is "an important component part of China's foreign currency reserve investments," People's Bank of China Vice Governor Hu Xiaolian said at a news conference on Monday.

"So as an important component we are naturally relatively concerned with the safety and profitability of U.S. government bonds," Hu said -- a statement apparently aimed at concerns that rising debt to fund Washington's stimulus package could spur inflation and weaken the dollar.

DONT FIGHT THE TAPE!

A lot of closed door meetings this weekend - the news reports on Bloomberg were engineered and the big boys started to get positioned on Friday afternoon, which explained the last hour session. A bunch of small specs got squeezed this morning - nasty - but we have to appreciate the evil nature of their scheme.

You've got it. This is an engineered rally, but nevertheless, it is a rally.

Newsflash - The Treasury Secretary makes a factual statement:

“We are the United States of America, we are not Sweden,” the Treasury chief said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

We can all rest a little easier knowing Secretary Geithner has such a firm grasp of the situation.

Here we go again slamming other countries while ours is being sold off to the highest bidder. We should be so proud.

Seriously, I just became a citizen and am almost regretting it. At least I have another passport if shit hits the fan - what are the rest of you guys planning on doing?

Well, based on the Secretary's remark, Sweden springs to mind. On a more practical note, I'm only 50 miles from Canada if it comes to that . However I expect we'll weather the next 3 years and eventually clean house for the umpteenth time. It's what we do. Mid-term elections should be a trip....that's just around the corner.

Tech will overtake XLF as leading indicator. Buying the following and others on pullbacks. AMD,FSLR,SANM,NVDA,AKAM, VTSS AND DRYS (shipping): All worth buying for long term (3-6 months).

Mole,

Because of the way TRIN is calculated

[(Advancing issues/declining issues) / (advancing volume/declining volume)]

in the morning we had massive up issues, but no corresponding massive up volume which resulted in a large number being divided by a small number and the extraordinarily high TRIN.

You are correct - which is why my supertrin didn't show it as I'm normalizing the data.

1+

ahahah mole... I also tried to play that divergence... this thing is a BEAST! th

I did make out okay but only because I kept doubling down every time we pushed up higher. Took profits right on time - more luck than skill I guess.

another view point today: levels to go short on a weekly % and daily % today are almost identical today of what it was to go long 9 days ago when market was at 667 on a weekly and daily % basis. 7 month weekly trend in place and 805 still intact.

Go SHORT NOW!!! ?

Wait for a rally failure confirmation. You don't have to get the exact tippy top. Any close above 784 today is bulltard territory.

No. This is what I see, any pull back to around 790 would be very good for a higher move up at EOD. Much lower than 790, say 780, puts this up move in jeopardy.

Damn...I wish this guy was still my governor:


http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2009/03/22/...


He actually knows things

Mole,
Re: Matt Tiabbi's Rolling Stone Article

Clearly you didn't see my post lat Friday (whaaaaaa....waaaaaaaaaa!!!! I want attention)
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=5433#disqus_thread

I've been a huge fan of Matt Tiabbi and the most recent article confirms my on-going admiration.

Oh, dedicating whole posts to you isn't good enough anymore? :-P

LMAO........
: )

Read it, thanks BALAB.

IMO, do not short this!

SPX near the highs of last week.NDX looks like it went through the highs last week.Dow looks like it went past the highs last week. XLF and Trans are well below the highs of last week.

yes....trannies are lagging....even semis are lagging too......Qs 30.20 resistance....??????

I am definitely watching the Qs for clues....30.20 is big IMO - north of that and we could get some short covering - maybe even squeezing to force way higher...it worries me being inherently a short-minded player in this market - and because it will further aereate the ballon-ish house-of-cards...

Need to see at least 8.50 XLF before I consider adding more financials, may change mind about where to add to long positions depending on configurations. Have to step away for a while.
.

Did anyone see 10:36 ES Candle bust higher but was immediately hit with selling pressure?
I'm taking that as a sign to take profits....

I may get back in on a pull back / profit taking

Edit: 10:48 EST. The VWAP is only 3pts away on the ES (1min)....If we pull back to it, we may get another rip up....
Furthermore, we're at a diagonal t/l starting 01/06, touching 02/09 and again just now......
I don't see a lot of selling pressure other than profit taking....

WARNING... do not see financials confirming the bullish emotions this morning...
30 minute XLF chart http://screencast.com/t/27Lrs3lXV9H

Thank you for the heads up!

i think i smell what you are cooking, ED.

This type of hype-fueled panic buying uses up a lot of momentum all at once.

we will see where things close today, but XLF is gonna have a helluva fight to take out last week highs on a daily close.

Amen to Mr. Robert Marcin, one fo the few guys that gets it:

" Robert Marcin
The Insanity of Bailout Nation
3/23/2009 9:55 AM EDT

What do you call it when the Fed Chair, the man who missed the whole debt bubble, the man of "fundamentally sound" infamy, can create trillions of dollars out of thin air to buy fixed income securities? He does this without commentary, debate, oversight, or accountability. Do we understand the consequences of a Fed balance sheet with thousands of billions of dollars of risky assets? How do they unwind quantitative easing when its half the size of the economy?
What do we call it when the US taxpayers fund AIG simply to keep it alive to pay off its asinine CDS bet? Does this mean US taxpayers are on the line for trillions of CDS from JP Morgan or Bank America? Do we citizens backstop the entire multi-trillion dollar derivatives market for all players?

Should taxpayers now provide banks, hedge funds, asset management firms, and insurance companies with hundreds of billions to speculate in toxic assets? Wasn't that the source of the financial industry meltdown in the first place? Does this Tiny Tim guy have a clue?

Isn't saddling a $14 trillion dollar economy with $53 trillion in debt the real problem? Can we lever our way out of the debacle, even if it's the Feds printing and/or borrowing the trillions? I call these actions insanity.

I have an crazy idea myself. Let the economy clear itself. Let the inevitable delevering occur without huge, Constitutional busting government interference in the free markets. Things won't be pretty or painless. But there will be a real bottom in asset prices an economic rebirth. If we need to, let's subidize a program of writedowns and forebearance to mitigate the delevering. All types of debt need to be paid down and written off. Let's get started.

What is printing or borrowing another trillion, to preserve the leveraged status quo, without cleaning anything up really going to acomplish in the long run? Bigger government? Much higher taxes? The abolishment of rule of law? A zombie economy for a decade? I say that's the insanity.

Think about all of the things the government is doing to mitigate this economic/asset downcycle, albeit a humdinger. Shouldn't we at least debate the different courses of action before the trillions are spent? Whose value proposition is insane, theirs or mine?

Now some will say this is the view of the Armageddonists and the shorts. That may be true. But, I am nicely net long the US stock market. I am thinking about what's right for fixing things, not papering this over. Five years ago I criticized Greenspan's 1% interest rate scam. Three years ago I forecasted an RTC II. And no one listened. No one is listening now either.

The morons in Washington think throwing more leverage at the problem is the solution, now via hedge funds and private equity firms. They are clueless. Gross overleverage is the problem. If we don't really understand the problem, we cannot fix it. I am afraid that printing and borrowing more money will cause unintended consequences and not really solve the problem of too much debt. But then again, what do I know?"

Heres what the TRUE S&P TRIN looks like so far today,
http://thefuturetrade.com/Resources/TRUESPTRIN.png

From What I've seen there is something terribly wrong with most TRIN calculations.

Changing headline to TRIN gone horribly wrong :-)

IMO, do not short this market YET!
She may back off to around 790 but then she will run higher. This is an incredibly strong move and all of my indicators are in alignment for a higher move.

Up vol. 35 times down vol.

10% short position won't hurt at this level.

agreed - the Qs are really struggling of late trying to bust above 30.10 range...

I got the same on my chart! ahhhhhhhhh

you got a glitch on your trin hi = 0.64

I hope they get Mud Butt on the trip.

I have a Trin of 2.49.....hmmmmm......

The new Zero Tutorial is a good read. I like the part where the Protagonist rides through the mountains and valleys out-running those forces that would take profits.

LMAO :-)

Will be buying on any intraday pullbacks, Although I don't expect many today.

I agree, afterburners kicking in. MACD crossing zero line on 60 m., we have a long time before these cross and point back down.

on bloomberg TRIN says HOD was 0.66 and LOD 0.36?

Just added more of C calls.

For those watching Zero and RL, do you see what I mean about respecting the RL levels?

Not really - we just busted through four of them like butter. Which was expected on my end as the signal strength was off the hook.

I saw us pause, pull back and then bust through.....
fyi: the pull backs when we have strong signals has a 89% Win percentage

I see that tick on ToS but idk what the hell to make of it. TRIN @ 2.65 right now

Those guys and their fucking bad data problems - I swear!!

It was a bad tick, would we be making a flat or expanding flat for wave 2 of a ?

TRIN Prophet - 16.26

IMO, it doesn't mean much. There's always a huge buildup of antsy investors the first few minutes after a weekend.

Yeah, keep it humble, Jorge. It does means something - I'm collecting those data points and they serve as important milestones in determining our position in the wave count.

Rawr. I have absolutely no cash in the market right now so the market can kiss my shiny metal ass ;)

whats TRIN ? can't find it in my platform

XLF setting new ST downchannel plot points over next 2 days.
XLF http://screencast.com/t/7GUQjqgA
XLF did not breach 7 month weekly trendline. XLF has dropped out of 9 day ST upchannel and is back testing this morning where it dropped out of channel and is in the process of forming new down channel. excellent area to add to short positions or FAZ long positions..

I agree the risk/reward is much better now with FAZ than when she was bouncing between 40 & 50... Please provide update on numerical upper resistance range for XLF since some of us cannot access screencast jinga charts from work...
always enjoy your updates!
PLEEAASE...

new down channel forming toiday as long as XLF closes below 9.40

the fibs have us parked on the 23% retrace after bouncing off the 38.2%.

I'm in the bear camp still but that looks kinda bullish unless it double tops

Trin HOD on TradeStation is 0.65, low 0.2,