Xlf, as some of you know, is not buying this market decline. I'm in same opinion as XLF, bullish.

...

!!TSOP WEN

I just keep shorting more FAZ on the pops. So far, it's working. I can see this cratering to $11 on a break of recent support. There is no history, therefore no support below that.

I don't think your conclusions are valid. FAZ/FAS trade off the Russell 1000 therefore if the Russell 1000 has support/resistance then FAS/FAZ should as well.

You may be correct in theory. When I look at a chart for support and resistance, all the fundamental reasons become garbage, or hearsay.

Here's a real Head and Shoulders. Target is 14.50.

http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo...

I hope you started this strategy since FAZ was over $100.

I wished. Got some at 23.3, alot more at 24.5, and more this AM at 22.4.

I hope you are hedged just in case. FAS calls are a great way to be hedged for a small price.

I dont trade oprions as its somewhat confusing to me. But it seems like this is a valuable way to get hedged. Know of a good site where I can learn the basics?

you are spot on.
bounce to 790 to just maybe 794 (no, no, no), then down big time

bookends?

mtst this is for your yesteday's question..

Low for this month will be 728.00 and high could be as high as 916.00, if we go above 814.00 on SPX cash..

So please ignore my previous posting of short all you can @ 821.00. If we cross 814.00 on SPX cash, the high for this month will be 916.00 .. so be careful..

811 is the critical.. low is pretty confirmed, 728.00

820 is the critical not 811.00..

Thnx indu...

I`ll do some work on the chart to see if I can understand "that old black magic you do" :)

First target-777

HAHAHAHAHA

Gotcha ya again, retail. ---The MMs

Confront you must the dark side, then only Jedi rat you shall be.

I say we are heading for a 15% crash or spike on a single day.... (April 1st week)

Reasons:

the way we are moving through Moving averages and levels....
It is not natural... (It only happened before 1987 crash ever in market history. )
There is a technical respect on any level e.g. In case we are to cross say 800 tape touches a level and moves in reverse way for some time...

If this is NOT happening then market is moving not in Boltzmann distribution....
It is Boson distribution....

Means BIG CRASH/SPIKE NOW..

I have no idea what this means. You have any charts, links? Who is Boltzman and Boston. I love ballsy predictions but there seems little behind to support it.

Boltzmann and Boson are distributions of active energy events.
Charts I have not given in this comment.
Prediction I have given. (So please email after 10th of april. )

damn you GOLD, damn you!

I could never understand why the fascination with shorting Gold. It's been one of the only things Mole's been consistently wrong on. It's always appeared to me that gold is the one thing you could make an argument that is in a bull market.

Consistently been wrong on? Exqueeze me? I shorted SLV and GLD a few weeks ago and was spot on. Also, I was consistently wrong all of 2008 when everyone was giving me a hard time about it.

So, please check your records before you spread false news like that.

1-

Oh geez. Slow down Mole. Let's not act like I am trying to defame you. Yes your wonderful.

I am very sorry.

Gold is like a beautiful female movie star GF with VD. What do you do?

Oh, and Mole le cool, N. Roubini said yesterday not to expect the "usual suspect" of a huge rally six months before the recovery. Not going to happen in his view. Also, said L shaped recovery, all bear market rallies, and we are still in deep dodo.

Praise you GOLD, Praise you!! LOL (sorry Max I'm long however)

Anyone smart enough or bold enough to short this sucker yesterday up around HOD (810)? Or buy puts in the SPY?

Look at the SPX 60 min. with stochs and MACDs on, note the distinct trend lines on these it hasn't been able to penetrate to the upside. This is what I have been carefully watching.

Ponga Girl Indicator ON, LOL.
Sorry Mole but when you took her away, it ruined my trading and fantasy life. Have to blame it on someone. ROTFLMAO

ABSOLUTELY!

I shorted at 802 yesterday, but covered at 795. I re-entered at 7:41am though at 790.50, still holding.....

morning, no, and am I pissed at myself, the only thing I really did was picked up quite a bit of SKF @ 99.00. I should have known better.

I am seeing a nice H&S on ES this morning. Downside target is 740. The fib fans support 740.

http://www.screencast.com/t/3rnazSUz

morning rats!

what if this abc down its just (a) of 2?

http://www.screencast.com/t/bzE1jNpUhiS

my graph :)

Interesting chart

What is the light color plot...1937-38?

What is the overlay on your chart? Is that the 1938 crash? If so, it's tracking incredibly closely... spooky.

It's possible. I'm just gonna keep it simple though and watch how prices react at $767-$770, the 38.2% retracement of 1 of A of 2 (circle) up.

We could bounce up hard to 820 from 767-769 on M2M news (or other BS) tomorrow only to come to 740-750 retest on earning reports later on.

Hmm. Futures have improved pretty dramatically in the last few minutes. Not much news out so not sure what to make of it. Currently short (and got in too early without the proper indicators), so I plan on riding this one until I'm properly stopped out. It might be sooner rather than later today as those futures moving 5 pts that quick means something is up. . . I would definitely like to at least see 770ish before going long again but we'll see what happens (especially the first 30 minutes).

I never put too much stock in the futes, as they are changeable and I do not play them. They just changed dramatically with jobs.

They can and do roughly indicate when she might open

Futs react a lot to what is happening in FTSE and DAX. Us folks sometimes find that hard to believe. but Europe is open and US is not.

I'll tell you this much- I got short at 790.50, within minutes of waking up. I got a nice sell signal, with supporting exhaustion volume. 791.62 is also the 23.6% retracement from the 665 low to the 630.5 high.

Caution, bad but warranted language
F**k The Fed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYXSbxj4lfc

as a follow-up video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQsNUEKKKRU&feat...

Wednesday Roadmap: Stuck in a Moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlqdyKwqq88
2 scenarios:
http://www.screencast.com/t/59WbXD69CQM

My charts still say down S&P. Yesterday was unbelievable, I sold my longs in the morning and went short only to see a steady rise. Actually there were about 6 places I saw for the longs to take profits on that rise, so it was total manipulation IMO* and was so unclear, muddied, diabolical chartwise. But IMO, we are back in the groove of my call to 777, then up. I will keep my eyes wide open though. I am really glad I chose to not put stops in--I know, bad boy Katzo-- but sometimes I choose to do that in extremely volatile times one day later as whipsaw will drive one crazy, a timing thing, selection right but exact timing wrong.

*Dictionary definition of the word MANIPULATION-what happens when choosing a direction in the stock market and it does not go your way. LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZN_dMkj2M0 WARNING-do not watch this with a hangover

Katzo (Ed here). Yeah, so am I. I figured I already broke my rule about not exiting a position before indicated to do so by going short - I figured I'd let it run. Mental stops be damned yesterday. Was rewarded for my foolish decision as it came down nicely. Will have to be a bit more diligent in covering those trading holes.

I am figuring the market should be down today with the EOQ as well as the negative sentiment from yesterday. Not sure why the futures just jumped 5 or 6 points. Almost like it wants to open green. That would be a concern but we'll see.

H&S on the ES?

http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders...

Good eye Jacksoo, unconfirmed until it breaks the neck-line IMHO.

officially dead - - copped a few $ loss but only playing small fry - - will run for longside to 792 to return small profit and then close out for the night. good luck with your trading - you still on the road trip?

Still enjoying the open air (bugs in face), and plenty of grits, southerners love their corn products.

for sure, but its trying.....

Anybody have thoughts on going long SPY when SPX hits 770 its 61.8% retracement level? I am very tempted but will have to see if we are close to busting through that level with any conviction first.

Ok, here's my attempt at contributing. I'm new at trading, and judging from my returns so far, not very good at it. I've learned a lot here though, so I'd appreciate any feedback on this idea:

I've been looking for indicators that would be helpful for trading FAS/FAZ. My broker is Charles Schwab and their charting is piss poor, so I signed up for a paper account with thinkorswim. Prophet charts is pretty awesome and you get live streaming quotes, so I have it open in a second window for watching the market during the day, then I flip over to execute the trade.

One of the studies I've been watching is the CCI With Breakout Signals. The default setting is 18, and on the 2 hour chart it seems to be a decent buy indicator for FAS/FAZ. It's not great on the selling side as it really misses the downturn, but it looks like it's good for telling you to get the hell out of a position.

I can't go back further on the 2 hour chart than the beginning of the year, and it looks like this:
http://tinyurl.com/c6eacb

I made an excel sheet with the profit/loss in percentages if you followed the indicator and bought/sold at the closing price of the 2 hour bar that gave you the signal:
http://tinyurl.com/ckyrod

Results seem pretty good - 77% return on trading FAZ if you followed the indicator this year and 40% on FAS. I calculated a max return based on if you were omniscient and knew you had hit the exact peak price (I wish) before the sell signal. That would have given you returns of 328% on FAZ and 228% on FAS.

We all know those max returns will never happen, but I'd like to figure out a better sell indicator that gives a signal closer to that max. There's a lot of room to play with between what the indicator is saying and where the max is.

I also feel these numbers are probably a little higher than normal because we've had two protracted down waves since the beginning of the year and one protracted up wave. If we chop around some the returns will likely be far less. I like the fact though that the max return is positive (an over 5%) for every buy/sell signal except for the one for FAZ on 3/20. That was the weekend where Geithner spoke on Monday before the open, so I'm willing to give it a pass on it.

So, here's the questions for anyone who is willing to answer:
1. Any criticisms to this approach?
2. Any ideas on a better sell indicator?
3. Are there any indicators you guys are using for FAS/FAZ that you like?

For free charting you might try bigfreecharts.com. They are real time and have a lot of options. I don't know if you can save charts but you can link to them.

cant get a website with that name....

I'm sorry I shouldn't comment before my 3rd cup of coffee, its http://www.bestfreecharts.com.

tks...!!!!!!!!

Try the arctangent function which gives you a slope combined with overbought and oversold levels....

long ideas for minor 3?

xlf
x
fcx
apol
pot
uaua
vlo
wag

Just a few... although I don't believe we are ready for the bounce up, yet...

Citigroup Says Buy Bank Puts Because Rally Will Fade
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

Well i normally fade those chumps.

Citi's CDS have spiked higher than any of it's peers - the market says they're in trouble - so they could be talking about themselves...lol

TOTN, On Tuesday we suffered through some pain & trouble, today is our day. You are still short, right?

Hey katzo,

Yes, still short - still looking for a lower low. It's been a grind. And I hope you're right. I've noted an incredible amount of bullishness lately. CNBC's Cramer has been absolutely giddy. M-T-M seems to be working against us today. We'll have to deal w/that until Thursday. Note my CDS comment above - seems to indicate some of these 'too big to fail's' are going down regardless of the M-T-M outcome. As always, timing is the trick. To be candid, I suspect being long is the right side to be on now but I continue to see the biggest risk as not being short. How's that for some tortured logic?

Yeah, I try to close out every day, but am suffering through the indicision
of the market.
good luck TOTN.

I hate when they do that.....just keep your mouth shut Citigroup...

Yeah, I thought it was comical...

New post @ www.inthepinktrading.com

The question that remains, though, is how deep will this corrective phase (of the current rally) on the ES and SPX take us? A 38.2 retracement is @ 767ish, followed by 50 and 61.8 retracements @ 747ish and 728ish, respectively. The case for 767 (770) and 747 (750) is a good argument for the uptrend to continue, but if the ES hits 728, then it will be very difficult to think that the uptrend will continue out of the corrective phase. Time will tell, I suppose, on what Mr. Market will give us.

Yesterday I posted that 770 or below is expected. I unexpectedly missed today's rally, BUT, I'm back to full market watching and will be ready for Wed!

Mole, I got symbols...Please do your own DD...

KIRK, $4.88, a specialty retailer of home deco.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/34027...

RJI, $6.01, Rogers International Commodity Index, nuff said.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/34026...

RICI has some interesting futures...

We already had our Captain Kirk moment today ;-)

mole, beam me up!

$7.79 on XLF seems to be a magic number. It is the intersection of 2 fib fans, the 50% retracement of the move off the May 6 low, and it would represent A = C parity in the most recent down move. Needless to say I will be getting out of financial shorts in that neighborhood.

http://www.screencast.com/t/0YQpq2hh

I try hard not to post an opionion, because over the years I have found it only has a 50% chance of being correct...

So, In my Opinion... this is the SPY 10m rising wedge target..


http://screencast.com/t/KokknacCa

Mole, if one were to look at longs from an EW perspective, would the ideal prospects be those who saw the greatest % rise in leg 1?

If so, 2 steel companies STLD and AKS had very nice percentage moves rivaling TNA and BGU.

MLMT....The S&P is going your way....Another Elliott Waver that I follow also thinks the lows on Monday will hold.

Who might i enquire ? I am keen always to see potentail counts and decide which one i like or where the odds are stacked.

7 days ago I posted this.

"If I was one of the MMs what would I do after 500 points rally on Dow?

1. We just got a big announcement by Fed about taking care of all Toxic assets; market cherished the news and stocks rallied. Should I start pushing market down from tomorrow? Not really, why? Because it’s not worth risk/reward plus it will diminish the confidence of individual investors.
2. What should we do to gain confidence? Simple put a candy on investors elbow and ask them to lick. How do we do that? Push this market up.
3. Of course no one expects another big day on Wall Street after 500+ point day; let’s give them another day to celebrate. Once they start taking profit, we will start buying and keep the market momentum up.
4. We will push Dow over 8000 and SPX over 800 and show them the bear market is over. Investors will jump in and think the worse is over. We will start issuing calls and start collecting premium. Once the P/C ratio is at substantial level, we will then show them the real world. Push this baby down in abyss.
5. Wipe out all of them and bank some big coins. Then run back to Govt. and ask them for another round of bailout.

Humm sounds about right. "

It sure is evil enough and would fit the wave pattern...

Everything in asia is green.... Expect Europe to be in green too... I expect that within 30 mins of European markets opening, /ES and /NQ should turn green...

Yes the lads had their little pukefest but somebody forgot to tell Obama to use the teleprompter and he will be shuffled out in the morning with a wheelbarrow full of money to keep them going.. XLF tells the tale.

sorry I didn't get that.. can you explain in layman terms what u mean to say here.

Basically its all a big lie about GM going bust or being let go bust, there will be some positive news ( money ) for them. Also XLF did not sell off with SPX end of day and the index goes nowhere without financials.

sorry I didn't get that.. can you explain in layman terms what u mean to say here.

sorry I didn't get that.. can you explain in layman terms what u mean to say here.

I know that this posting of mine is going to irk and draw wrath from a lot of uber-bears and folks who are massively short.. But I will still go ahead and post it.. I tried very hard to find a bearish case, but couldn't.. SPX closed at 797... Max we go down 790 and then back up.. Although I doubt that.. I think we will open flat to green and close nicely in green...

I dont believe that we are done with the downside.. But I am not married to it.. We are going up for some more time.. at least till the earnings start hitting us.. And even with earnings, I believe that they are going to be better than what we are expecting.. everyone is expecting doom and gloom.. and we are not going to see that. We will chop around come the earnings season - a miss will cause us to go down and a loss better than expected loss will cause us to go up... I dont expect to trend in any way through the earnings season..

Right now, I think we have already come down enough number of points from the recent top of 832.. we have come down good 50 points (if one sees the action in /ES)... and even on SPX if you count yesterday's dip.. I see the bears jump up and down on all the blogs about how tomorrow there will be gloom and doom... There are two arguments for that: (a) GM imploding - I think that the GM issue is being handled with definiteness.. It is uncertainty that spooks people.. With GM, I think the worst has already been priced in and TK was correct on that front.. The only thing he did not factor in was that the solution to GM problem could reduce the common stock to 0.

The other reason I am seeing amongst bears is that the stocks have been marked up and tomorrow they will sell off... If they were marked up and that was the reason why they were up there in 830's .. .why did they fall off 50 points in last 2 days of the quarter.. If the window dressing was indeed true... then the gains should have held to EOQ.. which did not happen...

I am still expecting a flat to a slightly up open tomorrow with a green close.

Absurd.

try some Richard Russel for a dose of reality. I believe he may have a a bit of experience.

..................................................
March 31, 2009 --

Russell Comment -- Yes, it's hard to believe, the whole US auto business going down the drain in one fell swoop. Remember CEO "Engine Charlie's" famous remark, "As GM goes, so goes the nation."

Every bull or bear market provides us with a "surprise." I've thought long and hard about what kind of a surprise this bear market could give us. My answer -- I think this bear market is going to be worse than almost anyone is envisioning. I'm afraid that unemployment could rise to almost 20 percent. As for the stock market, I'm thinking that we could see the Dow fall into the 3000 zone. It seems to me that the public is taking the current situation as "just a severe recession." It will prove to be a lot more dangerous than that. And I don't think people are prepared for a real depression. In fact, most analysts won't even use the expression "Depression."
....................................................
Yesterday's market action was dreadful. My PTI (shown below) broke out below its recently-formed cluster -- ominous action. The Lowry's figures for the day were awful with their Buying Power Index (demand) falling 8 points and their Selling Pressure Index (supply) rising 8 points.

This is what is so bearish. At the March 9 low, the Selling Pressure Index stood at 899. As of yesterday, the Selling Pressure Index stood at 894. This means that since March 9 Lowry's Selling Pressure Index has only declined by 5 points -- just a minor decline. If this was a new bull market, Lowry's Selling Pressure Index should be down substantially, maybe 35 or 40 points. The obvious conclusion is that there still is a huge amount of stocks (supply) for sale. In other words, the desire to sell is still far from being exhausted.

Yesterday was a decisive 90 percent down-day. Following a 90 percent down-day, it is normal for the market to rally 2 to 7 days. A refusal to do this would be very bearish. If this bear market rally has topped out (and I think there is a good chance that it has), the Averages will, in due time, test the bear market lows of March 9. Those lows were ---

Industrials 6547.05.

Transports 2146.89.

If those lows are jointly broken, the bear market will be re-confirmed, and I would expect to see a very ugly new leg of the bear market on the downside. I would also expect the economy to worsen. I noticed on the recent rally, that the public and analysts quickly turned optimistic (some declaring that we were seeing the birth of a new bull market) which was a bearish turn of events.

I believe the great danger ahead will be steadily rising unemployment -- in which case I would expect public sentiment to turn black-bearish. As for the stock market, there's nothing more frightening than a bear market rally that raises hopes -- and then breaks down to new lows.

Investment position -- Subscribers should be out of all non-gold common stocks and in cash and gold items.

Market position -- The primary trend of the market is bearish. The secondary trend is unclear, but I suspect it is turning bearish.

MyLifeMyTrade:

Thanks for the update. Do you still sees SRS go to 43?

Yes I do... inspite of the dump in the broader market, IYR and financials stood up fine... which bodes really bad for SRS... I think SRS goes to low 40's by next Monday. That is when I would go long SRS... I would start scaling in, when IYR hits $27.5




________________________________

I am very LONG SRS tonight and feeling real smart and sassy over that call to buy it today.

It is true this POS may rally pretty hard after the mkt completes the 5 wave here, but it will be short lived, a month maybe two at best and simply serve to trap the dumbasscrackheadpumper bulls yet again. I expect many will abstain from stocks the rest of their lives after the coming Q3/Q4 2009 crash. Hell we may even get a new form of government or the dollar could lose its primacy in the process.

I also intend to go very long SRS.... However, I am going to wait a bit more.

IMO..SRS going to low 40's by Monday (if not next 2-3 days)... That’s when I give it the kitchen sink. Although, even after that I see it go to low 60's ... possibly 70.. but not any higher... The high percentage chop chop in IYR has really sucked the value out of SRS over past few months...

I picked 5 (want eventually get 10) May 10 call for 1.05 today. I expect this sector to explode in the next few months if broad market goes up. Will keep posted when I either pick or close the position

What ticker ?

Sorry, missed the ticker, it is NVDA

Stop worrying about the naysayers. Stick with the subject matter that interests you.Explanations about the day's activity are very helpful to the newbies.

Can someone share what they've got as last quote on DXM9? I'm having problems pulling it up.

86.22

Many thanks Justin. :-)

Not a problem. It's looking bullish...

Its been a manic month! Started out uber bearish, got very bullish a few days after the lows. Now, even though I have a half a short position, the chance we break to new lows here is remote. The key for me is my belief that we are still in intermediate wave 4 of Primary 1. I believe this is an important distinction to make. What will this fourth wavelook like? For me its not a given that the next major move will be gang busters to the upside. It could be a C wave, which would probably get back to the 900-50 level on the S&P. But it could also be protracted triangle. Trying not to get frustrated or overly committed at this point.

Trader Bull wanted a chart with FIBS on the RIFIN.

Here ya go TB.
http://tinyurl.com/cd76ss

"But I have chosen to do so because I care and I hate to see people lose their 401ks and life savings to a bunch of butt pirates looting the country and now the public purse."

This is such a load of horseshit. Somebody's gotta call you out on this one. If this statement was actually true, and you're here to help the rest of us, then you wouldn't spend so much time whining about the lack of contributions from those you're trying so desperately to help. Helping others is supposed to be a selfless act; not "I bust my ass for you leeches, now give back to me." I don't care if you want to continue to cry about your blog not being a two-way street here; but don't paint it like you're just trying to help the poor guy.

Short swing trade idea, AXP http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXP&p=60&b=3&g...

"Somebody's gotta call you out on this one."

Aren't we glad we have you here, workdog - LOL!!! You are my hero...

Yup. That was the childish reply I was expecting.

Interesting reply to your rant.

All right, I will succumb and apologize to you for questioning your motivation for this blog.

However, I would ask you to keep in mind that teaching, as a whole, is typically a thankless job that doesn't pay very well. You do it because you love it. You don't have to like me, but you should love what you do.
Since I don't have my charts in front of me, I have ceased to be constructive. Adeiu.

Just a brief introduction to synthetic CDOs (if you Google it, there's more info), these would start to be a concern if GM defaults. Basically, these things were sold to charities, municipalities, etc, as a "safe" investment. However, if 7 of the companies on the list they were given default, then they part of the bond's value goes away, if 9 default, the bond is wiped out. 6 have already defaulted, GM would be 7.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/2/11/696032/...

I spent a long career in the fixed income business and I can assure you not many people truly understand what was going on. What bothers me is that none of these institutions , municipalities and charities is taking responsibility for their own actions. The investment boards didn't do their job and now blame the brokers. There is no free lunch. When the yields were too high, they should have run for the hills.

I've been saying it all along. This is how they will circumvent going back to Congress and asking for more bailout money. Geithner was the deciding voice on the LEH failure too- so this is nothing new to him.

Next question is: who is 8 and 9?

I believe it is generally recognized that allowing LEH to fail was an error. My guess that the decision was made at a very high level in the past Administration. Higher than Paulson.

A couple of homebuilders could default and no one would bat an eye, I bet.

True- or one of the property management biggies or big insurance names. I had a list somewhere on the potentials- I'll see what I can dig up and share. The web is so tangled it's not even funny.

ES dropping hard now. News coimg out that Obama says yes to bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler

http://screencast.com/t/A7MlPH02Mx

Of cource he waited until EOQ to come out with the news.

Well, as long as Government Motors covers my warranty..I'm happy.

http://tinyurl.com/cemhl8

Snort-a-thon. You never fail me Zig.

that pisses me off so fucking much because I lost a bunch of money shorting today

Did you cover V8 or are you still in? I am hanging on by the skin of my teeth. Today was totally manipulated, tomorrow will be a real day.

covered for a loss. I dont want to be around for any M2M bullsh!t

Hey V8, you'll get back tomorrow or the next day. Lots of downside heading our way IMO..

SPX should see $770 tomorrow http://tinyurl.com/cjvggx

I still say SXP will break March lows within two weeks. Again - WTFDIKA. ;-)

Nice ZigZag.

I like the way you think!

Can someone obey? It's been pitiful today...

Sure, but it's gonna cost ya. I want your best symbol on the next run-up.

(ducking for cover)

hey K....I just sent you a query.....

Best,

BB

Got it Bala. Were you backtesting crossovers perchance?

I was indeed..... : )
Doth my eyes perceive me? (i.e. am I retarded?)

Alrighty then.... my T-partner did an extensive backtest on the entire S&P universe about a month ago for the '08 season. MACD, RSI, STO.. you name it. The largest percentage of profits came from the 20/50 crossover on daily charts, and for obvious reasons they succeeded best on the short side. I don't think he noodled the test with the MA parameters you mentioned, but keep an eye on it and let me know what you see. A lot of daytraders dial it down to your numbers intraday to snag the move early. I personally use the 5/10/20 intraday just fine. You can also scan for any combination of crossovers on the dailies for great potential set-ups, but my fave is still the 50/200 or the 20/50 and those are the first victims I search out by scan each night for research. Let me know what you see as you watch.

I have Tradestation Strategy backtesting and ran a simple EMA cross on SPY itself for the past year on a 15 min chart and got the highest profits with a 2 50 EMA cross. I wouldn't go by that but it did yield about a 100% annual return versus a 20 50 EMA cross which lost 6%

On a daily chart over 2 years, a 2 1 cross yielded about 50% annually while the rare 20 50 lost 14%.

- to each his own.

As always, excellent info and muchos gracias

I'll keep you posted.

Ah.. and I forgot- I use EMAs intraday but the daily scans with SMAs. Once I scope in on those dailies I'll also take a look at them with EMA setups too for another look-see. G/L my friend.

Intra-day I use the 3,7 DEMA pretty successfully on a 5min chart. Then there's the old 9,18 dual MA cross over. Check it out.

FWIW, via Tradestation and using their genetic algorithm/optimization on a 5 minute chart on SPY, I show the best single EMA combo over the past year to be an 11 fast and a 108 slow, about an 85% return on your money with about 350 trades/year with no stops.

With a 15% profit sucker and a 2% stop, that result improves to 105% annually. It does have a relatively high coefficient of variance however so i wouldnt use it.

Combo stochastic and arctangenet models do better for me...

Thanks Mole! I'll give it a whirl. What's another template in my bag of tricks, right? I do like the DEMA myself. I haven't used a 5 min in a long time, but believe it or not I used to exclusively use a one minute and kept my trading confined to only 3 stocks. I miss those days sometimes! LOL

I shall oblige.

Did it this morning... Will do again.

Yes sir.
Done.
Done.
Done

Yes sir, right away sir. Will that be all, sir. :)

Hey Mole, Unfortunately I traded what I wanted to see rather than what I saw. I freely admit that it was a mistake on my part and not something that should have happened. Basically got out of long positions after the gap without any technical or indicator reason. Quite unfortunate as I missed most of the runup. Luckily I didn't get stopped out going to 810, and bought a few more near the top to average against the earlier short SPY positions and rode it down. Even though it didn't quite got to where I initially acquired the first position (793), with the additional position I was able to net out zero. I imagine there will be a gap down tomorrow as it looks fairly weak post close.

Anyhow, regarding zero and zero-lite. The zero indicator was definitely spot on. (Too bad didn't follow it as I should ) The Zero-lite was definitely off but not every indicator will be "on" all the time. You do have to utilize some common sense. Both movements up/down were a bit off as there should have been volume but there wasn't any volume with the dramatic moves in both directions.

Anyhow, the mole indicator is quite helpful to utilize. I'm still trying to control the emotional aspect of things as thats what I have to balance with the indicators to make things more profitable. (Basically be more religious and diligent in my stops). Oh well, you live and learn.

Anyone worried about what damage "Mark to Market" decision on Apr 2 can do to our short positions? I holding too many PUT options - so I'm worried about a huge short squeeze on Apr 2.

Mole,

I've been trying to spend time on other things (you know, the really important things like kids, wife, friends, fun) so I haven't been very active here, but I did recommend the gunmakers last week. Good ole' SWHC and Ruger (RGR) are not short squeeze candidates but I think they'll do well in the long run, regardless. Another one I talked about awhile back, SNDA has been on fire. It's pretty close to taking out its all time high at 40ish, has no debt, plenty of cash and leads what will be an explosive growth market. Their publicity wll only get better IMO http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-makers-accus...

I don't think this is the time to go medium term long yet, so i'll wait patiently for good entries.

OK, now off to bed. The Countess is cold and needs my royal attention..

P.S. So I just saw there was a guy named Earl of Subway that posted earlier. Cousin, this blog's already got the Count, no need for the Earl. Seriously though, you should have been the Earl of Sandwich, that guy left a tasty legacy.

LOL

If the count on the chart below is correct, the expected move for a wave C of 2 to be equal to A of 2 would be at least to 752.5 on ES.

http://content.screencast.com/users/Ed638/folde...

Let me know what you think.

As unlikely as this sounds, I think that we are going to have a big green day tomorrow. I think the move down today was like the one we had last week when we plunged to 791.. and bounced back up sharply. The only difference this time is that we bounce back up during the night.

Every sharp down move has bounced back and so will this one.. Expect a gap up above SPX 800 tomorrow and an up day for most part in anticipation of M2M... I already see the futures recovering..

Ummm, did I just fall down the rabbit hole. Today was up. EOD was only raping the villagers.

I did not understand your comment.. care to elaborate more...

crap, you are usually my contrary indicator, but I happen to agree with you so either we are both right or go down in flames tomorrow. :)

Your positions might be same as my positions.. but your comments on your disqus page where you say "you made a bad trade" suggests that your outlook for tomorrow is still contrary to mine...

In any case, with day trading, we can be contrary to each other and still make money depending on where we enter and where we exit.. Trending days are exception... but then those days are rare esp these days..



________________________________

my last comments said that I was hedged. I am delta neutral going into tomorrow. I may unhedge and bet on a bounce if we dont break through 770 on volume. If we do, I will have to be short like there is no tomorrow.

Hi Mole,

I'm reading you're Zero tutorial cause I'm thinking about signing, and I know you mentioned this but I just want to make sure. To use Zero, we're basically just trading DIA, QQQQ, and SPY calls and puts right? And if so, am I suppose to be buying in the money or out of the money calls and puts? And if they're out of the money, about how far do I go? Thanks, and I look forward to signing up.

It's actually a market trend indicator/oscillator. You can trade ETF options but I make it clear in the tutorial that you should trade index futures. I suggest you go through the entire tutorial before you sign up - if you still have questions after that let me know.

I was checking out the days on the $rifin chart and it looks like it has touched it's 38.2% fib retracement at 520 and has been breaking down ever since. I do not know how to post charts on discuss but I took the high at 820 and retraced to the low at 340. I could see it touching the 23.6% at 450 and bouncing off. Currently long the FAZ.

Noob Zero update,

saw the VTA early this morning. I bought calls on the SPY when the VTA stuck and didnt disappear. turned out to be a good move, however, I hedged my position when I saw Mole's message about not trusting the rally on the Z-lite. in all, learning the zero takes time but is worth it for people like me who cannot watch the market all day but who like to participate. going into tomorrow hedged hoping we get a spike due to M2M news.