Wednesday Quicky

I’m about to fall into bed, so just a chart tonight:

The breach of 865.73 and then the touch of 881 were two inflection points that changed our wave count considerably. The bottom line is that the main trend continues to the upside – all the gyrations we had to endure in the past month were part of a sideways consolidation triangle-like pattern – I know it’s ugly. Rest assured that he exact count will reveal itself over time – but corrective ways are almost always complex and their complexities manifold.

For now the 850 level should hold even if we correct down tomorrow or Friday (blue option). As the bears have remained in hibernation over the past few weeks it’s not impossible that we might see an immediate continuation to the upside, although I currently would give the blue option a 65% probability.

Gold continues to be a cruel mistress as it’s teasing me again with what looks like another tepid drop to the downside. As I noted today – we need to see an acceleration here in a very short order, otherwise the theta burn will force my hand to finally pull my puts.

G’night!

Mole

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 30th, 2009 at 1:29 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Mole, I got whipsawed out of my gold futures shorts, took it in the shorts so to speak,….what the hey, you kindo f predicted that manipulation. I had my stop at 905 I think, and yeah…they got me.

    But seems futures has all the leverage and none of the theta burn….any reason to prefer an option play? Perhaps margin requirements, etc.?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    AP Source: Chrysler lender talks break off, company headed for bankruptcy protection
    On Thursday April 30, 2009, 1:28 am EDT

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-Source-Chrysle

    Guess this means they're heading for a Fiat Currency….

  • mikevadon
  • TomOfTheNorth

    Thursday's economic calendar EDT:
    8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
    8:30 Employment Cost Index
    8:30 Jobless Claims
    9:45 NAPM Chicago Business Barometer
    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
    3:00 PM Farm Prices
    3:45 PM Volcker speaks on U.S.-China cooperation in the global crisis
    4:30 PM Money Supply

  • Douala

    From McHugh's 4-30 newsletter…

    pic #1: http://tinyurl.com/chs7v8

    There is a strong similarity between 2009's V shaped decline and recovery with 2003's. If you recall, 2003's bottom arrived around the same time of March that 2009's did, 2003's occurring in connection with the start of the Iraq War.

    What is interesting is that the progress of each rally, and the time frame for the rally bounces, has been remarkably similar. There was even a Rising Bearish Wedge pattern back then that looked close to completion by the end of April, just as there appears to be one now (albeit the wedge looks more conventional in the Industrials than the S&P 500 in 2009).

    pic #2: http://tinyurl.com/cgvkxo

    Further, the position of the MACD and of the Full Stochastics were nearly identical in 2003 as to now.

    So what happened next? Well, the chart below shows that the Rising Bearish Wedge did produce a decline, but it was not the decline that was expected, and essentially this pattern failed. Instead, prices continued to rally through the beginning of June, when a meaningful sideways correction finally started, and lasted most of the summer. But there never really was a decent corrective decline to load up with long positions. The rally then resumed in August and prices continued sharply higher through year end, before a substantial correction occurred during the first half of 2004. But by then, a new Bull Market was well underway.

    pic #3: http://tinyurl.com/dem3yz

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    ES new highs tonihgt 881.50

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    This thing is relentless right now at 882.5 +13.5 overnight….

    ES Daily and Weekly R1 @ 882.5 , 2 of last 3 weeks weekly R1 was the high of the week….

    Break above these levels would like mean a quick trip to 895-900 per my extra bullish end of week scenario from earlier
    http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/

  • Yux

    ROFL

  • Count_de_Monee

    The love fest continues, ES at 884

    *sigh*

  • callie

    I see some positive divergences on the stochastics on the 10 and 30 yr T-notes futures on the 2 hr-chart plus the daily stochastics are nearing bottom. It also looks like the $ is in the ending stage of a zigzag from the april 20 high. But I am probably grasping at straws, looking at a lot of red here in my (30% short, rest cash) account. I really don't know anything about the bondmarket, I just look at it for guidance for the direction of the stockmarket. Any of you rats have any ideas on the $ or access to TA on treasuries? I also would appreciate if you could share your strategies if you're sitting on puts like I am.

  • callie

    Well, euro/dollar is selling off, that's promising. AUDUSD and NZDUSD (major carry-trade currencies) as well. But EURJPY is not giving in yet.

  • OllyVaradi

    I'm not sure there's much a bear can find comfort in at the moment. There have been divergences and extremes for over two weeks now on different indicators which is why so many bears got in early and are having their asses handed to them. I think the reliability of TA is subdued in irrational markets so we will just have to manage our capital until such time that the markets correct and resume more normal behaviour.

  • callie

    Something's not right here, ES making new highs but currencies won't play. I've added puts.

  • callie

    Thanks. Yes, this market is manic-depressive. Forgot to take it's meds. How are you positioned now?

  • OllyVaradi

    Bearish stance but have hedged to neutral at times on the way up. We had an almost 5% move up on the Dow since the low on Tuesday and unless a wave of selling hits before the open, a lot of bears will cause another push up by being forced to cover. Could be the day for bear capitulation. I don't like saying that but the market has defied my expectations.

  • jacksoo

    noticed same on AUDUSD myself

  • OllyVaradi

    Perhaps it should be the currencies you should play. Could the ES move be the leading indicator?

  • Blind_Squirrel

    No time to read posts, maintaining all ES and NQ shorts.

    That snake was tougher than I thought!!!!

  • BearsRus

    Long FAZ 7.64

  • BearsRus

    Watch out Squirrel.. Capital preservation is rule nr. 1
    Make sure you put in those stops, cause I'd hate to say it, but we could get more upside today,

  • salvadorveiga

    hollly horse-shit !

    20 pts higher than last night ? this thing is bogus….

    I'm still bearish long term, but sometimes I wonder could this be a beginning of a bull ? The resemblences with 2003 are pretty good…. in terms of graphs of course not fundamentals.

    Just saying, since I don't want to be an obsessed bear, gotta keep the options open.

  • katzo7

    I have not followed this Zweig Breadth Thrust chart so do not know how accurate it is but
    Cobra vouches for it's reliability. http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
    Here it is.
    http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SfkVVDbzDtI/A

    Will try to get speling moore corect today.

  • annamall

    God I woke up about 5:30am saw the futures, took 2 advil pm and went back to bed. This market is so oversold, but you know how long things can keep going. All this bad news and nada. The futures are a bit better than @ 5:30am, but not enough. XOM missed EPS estimate, and we have a ton of news ahead. I am still 80% bearish, (I know if I go long now, it's just chasing the tape and I hate that) if nothing works today I may just go to cash. It's too ridiculous!
    Let's hope at least for the blue scenario our coveted Leader Mole has drawn for us!

  • callie

    Let's hope those employment numbers suck.

  • annamall

    really bad LOL :-) along with Chrysler going BDRPT

  • annamall

    nice Katzo let's hope this is right! :-D

  • salvadorveiga

    oversold?

    i guess you're still under the effect of those advils eh ? :P

    sighhh hoping for a blue one as well

  • katzo7

    Stocks keep going up.
    Pandemic keeps going up.
    Unemployment keeps going up.
    Foreclosures keep going up.
    I am missing something here.

  • katzo7

    Note the extreme oscillation, unprecedented.
    See inkyguy, I can spel again.

  • annamall

    oops I meant overbought! LOL

  • annamall

    Just fixed it! LOL

  • katzo7

    I think today is top, but be aware, I thought yesterday was, and day before, and . . .
    I need to go either to your beach or get my car washed.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I think the way things are going it's going to have to
    be the $5 one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • yazzer

    Does higher thrust = higher market? If so, dang, that's one perfect bull pennant/triangle there that could be about to bust upside, no? (sorry for sounding like a bull – I am not, long term, but am following this trend until it tells me not to anymore :-))

  • salvadorveiga

    Chrysler just went bust :P

    Ch 11 … futures not even glinched

  • katzo7

    Dunno, first time I have ever seen this chart. What is interesting is that the green line indicated the “false” bottoms in Oct. and Nov. note the blue line never came down close (actually in Nov. it was close) during those times, but the blue line nailed the Mar. bottom and never looked back. Can anyone else out there in cyberland analyze this Zweig thing?

  • salvadorveiga

    nothingg special bout the numbers :(

  • Squidman

    Nice to see your sense of humor so robust.

  • ropey

    Man, this market is really upside down, all this news and we're up at 881 before the open blargh….well that'll teach me for holding puts overnight.
    I think i may just have to disappear till next week and see what happens, too many large gaps below that need filling…was really hoping today would be down but c'est la vie, my gut was right!

  • katzo7

    What kind f increase in the unemployment numbers will the GM temp shut down and this Chrysler bankruptcy add? Will this be the goat in the python?

  • annamall

    That's what I am thinking, is no one figuring ALL the job losses that will come from these 2 events. Come on! the job losses will be much greater. As we speak futures are coming down. :-)

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Anyone here look at the NYSE McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index? Just wondering if I should add it to the stable of indicators to watch.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE

  • BalaB

    Evidently 3m people are fed off of the auto industry.
    If half go unemployed, that still a major hit.

  • standard_and_poor

    CAUTION: watch 882.06 AND 847.12
    I'm buying calls as a hedge.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/W8Wgx7S1

  • katzo7

    Actually I feel this is driven by mutual fund/GS consortium. Note from ZeroHedge, Calpers is not active at this point. They are under much pressure to deliver.

  • BalaB

    Potential Scalps

    AMZN, CMG, AAPL, ARO, COG, USB, WFC….
    Once the market opens, I'll see more

  • northernlights

    honourable mole –
    or any other knowledgeable member of this brainy fora,
    could you please explain what you get out of this piece of information (re: the market):

    http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published%20

    thanks in advance!

  • annamall

    Hey B
    exactly!

  • katzo7

    Link does not work.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Gap up yesterday, gap up today… would be nice if we could get a gap closed.

  • prozor7

    someone on this board have this statment:
    UUP – going DOWN market is going UP

    that was true till today – both UP that means 1 is going DOWN

    I'm going 100% SPY short for the first time in last couple of weeks

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Some broken links on the site – is this the article you were trying to post?

    http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/index_assets

  • Squidman

    Looks like AMZN was the ticket.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    882.06 was taken out

  • BalaB

    BLK

  • MikeT

    No, no…that only happens when its gapped down. I sit here in bewilderment at this market.

  • annamall

    Mole do you have any notion of where the orange scenario would get to? S&P 900 is what i think you mentioned?

  • Huck

    I wish you luck. I went short yesterday at 875-880 via SDS & SRS for the first time in a couple weeks myself. Just got stopped out for a 3% loss. Annnnnd then the S&P immediately dropped a couple points.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    A sideshow to the economy, market & pandemic is unfolding with the news that Vice President Joe Biden's brother & son are the owners of a Fund Of Funds that is having some, er, difficulties. Perhaps they should have the Treasury Secretary do their taxes……

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/is-joe-bi

  • standard_and_poor

    Added TNA as hedge.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Fucking hate IB already

    i can't fucking log in to their fucking website. i had great position on ES they fucking can't put a trailing stop WTF.

    Fuck my company's rule i am now fucking stuck with this shit broker. i can't download their software and can't log in to their website I had to close the position for 1 point gain. Seriously can it get any worse than this?

    I am mad beyond anyone can ever imagine.

  • katzo7

    prozor said, “both UP that means 1 is going DOWN”
    Dollar is going up right? UUP is going up, dollar going up.

  • MikeT

    Are we still in Intermediate A of Primary 2?

  • v8muscle

    you can be TK and have your broker's website be down for an entire week?

  • MikeT

    I hear you waffle. I purposely went with TOS Desktop because these other brokers with their website logins used to hang me up often. Forget about trying to make a quick trade.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    8293 is .236 fibbo retrace of entire move from highs

  • C.C. Rider

    Highs are in at 886. Vix just bounced off of lower trendline going back to 8/08. Looking for a minimum correction here to 845, possibly 825.

  • katzo7

    Triangle forming on 3 min., megaphone forming on 10 min., gaps all over the place, colonoscopy for katzo forming on the 60 min. and day. Things are looking brighter.

  • prozor7

    i'm trading what I see.

    if dollar is going UP market is going down that is my logic! you can't have both, right?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hey katz,

    I haven't followed Marty Zweig since the '80s when he went 'private' – but he was always one of the sharpest guys around. However, although I have no specific insight into what we're measuring, I infer the obvious – the down trend is intact, the market is overbought….LOL

  • Squidman

    Awesome dude. Too fast for me though, the move was 30% done at the open.

  • katzo7

    NO, I wasn't criticising you, but you said I think, 1, meaning $1 I think, is going DOWN. Sorry.

  • GoCougs

    Waffle,

    I hear you man…trading at work sucks.

    Have you seen the TOS platform on iPhone? Pretty robust and easy to use on the sly at the office. Not the best for high volume trading, but works just fine for me.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shorted FAS at 8.80

  • BalaB

    Thanks Man!.

    Killing ES at +4.

    I'm done with NQs. We've already rallied 37pts.

  • standard_and_poor

    closed out half of XLF longs.

  • v8muscle

    SPX just broke out of the top of its channel…. im guessing its a fakeout but the next resistance is 900 (on the larger channel)

    My scenario (w/ green target circle, which has been on my charts for 2-3 weeks now) is shown here: http://screencast.com/t/9VRQmKfZf

  • MikeT

    Still “Hard to Borrow” at TOS.

  • prozor7

    any comments including criticism are welcome.

    I'm here to learn, help (if I can) and made some coins.

    this board is all about it !!!

  • rhae

    SPY 10m appear to be challenging a strong RTL ( resistance trend line)… about all we can do is track and watch potential reversal area's… mole's charts super for that…

    http://screencast.com/t/QVFRnoE18

  • katzo7

    You are a student right, shouldn't you be going to class V8. Just kidding. Nice chart.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    found some

  • lester

    Are you long at this point. I have no positions other than GLD Puts.

  • standard_and_poor

    Good to know, thanks Coug.

  • v8muscle

    I have class in 45 mins hahaha I'm not taking any new positions at this point. Kinda sucks because I hedged myself the other day but thats life.

  • v8muscle

    barely long, i have a 51/52 bull call spread on IWM. Made me a tiny bit today but not much

  • annamall

    I am sorry to hear that TW! I had a feeling you might be miserable, they sound like a bunch of DAess

  • BalaB

    I'm seeing very little follow through at the moment.
    Perhaps a 10:00 / 10:30 reversal will ignite more upside.

  • katzo7

    IMO shorts/puts are on sale right here. BUT do not follow my opinion.

  • salvadorveiga

    it's a tough life being a student and following markets at same time :D

  • Squidman

    At this point it looks likely they will pin the week at 900, perhaps and some change for the mouth breathers. With a lot of hacky sack in between.

  • annamall

    I wish it go ahead and get there and be done with it. :-)

  • v8muscle

    hahah i know man, its terrible. you gotta make all your entries in the AM or PM and in between you just hope your stops dont get taken out or you're forced to hedge and leave lots of money on the table

  • northernlights

    thanks to Tom and katzo for trying a broken link in my earlier Q.
    I found the interesting document on The smart money tracker – in the comments:

    https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=591244

    when I copied the address you find in John's comment into my url – it worked, and it just worked again?!
    Will you – and mole ! – please give it another try? and let us know your interpretation?
    thanks

  • lester

    sold my GLD Puts for a whopping 0.2 gain per contract. Made $60. Big whoop

  • lester

    are you long for the ride to 900? I have no positions today now.

  • Squidman

    Who's on first

  • jacksoo

    S&P – you still looking at 806ish for an exit?

  • anthem

    Don't complain about winners – no matter how large or small. . . .

  • BalaB

    Come on! You've got it made! LOL

  • Squidman

    I don't but I've seen a few people mention the McClellan on a regular basis. I prefer the William's %R.

  • lester

    I am not complaining. But I do need some big gainers, don't we all…

  • salvadorveiga

    i take my cell phone to classes nonetheless…. if something comes up i'm able to enter or exit ;)

  • salvadorveiga

    lol

  • v8muscle

    I dont have an iphone so thats kinda tough for me :( Maybe once I make all my huge money lol

  • salvadorveiga

    it's still money….

    there's a popular saying here in Portugal “Grain by grain the chicken fattens…”

    if you made 60 dollars everyday you'd be rich in a short time ;)

  • standard_and_poor

    So far 11.13 is strong resistance in XLF. I'll close out more xlf shorts above there.

  • salvadorveiga

    iphone's overrated imo…. I have an HTC pda, costed me less than half of an iphone and does a whole lot more things…

  • prozor7

    clock is ticking

    UUP sliding down but still positive :)

    /ES holding at 882 :(

  • katzo7

    Let me discuss what one has to weigh during times like this. I know a lot of people are trapped short at this point. To capitulate will relieve certain pressure, will even give one a feeling that they have taken control and done something, reacted. And surprisingly, it is actually very refreshing. I have done that in the past. This time I will not.
    I have to aggregate all of the TAs I am seeing, stochs, EW tops on multiple time frames, MACD divergences, etc. and make a decision relative to those.
    And I might go to a matinee movie. LOL

  • lester

    entered 25% position on SPY June Puts. I know I am certifiable…but just keeping you rats informed

  • annamall

    No I am not going to chase this tape. I have hedges in ie IBM calls Google calls ERTS calls, but net short.

  • Autopsias

    Have you heard about this?

    GM getting rid of 21000

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8021029.stm

  • Osso

    Starting a position in EDZ….

  • lester

    Wow, I see GOOG kissed $400.

  • Squidman

    When you are able to recognize why your winners are so, then you will gain. You need more winners, not bigger ones IMO. Although both would be nice. Keep bunting Lester–even more important now.

  • annamall

    touch'e Katzo. I am trying not to keep watching the tape and CNBC the last couple of days, yesterday I actually ended up a little (being net short that's an achievement) but if you let the tape get to you and you panic, or jump into the other side, usually you get taken out on both sides.
    Let's see what happens after P Obama tells us how Chyrsler is going down. I am going to shower have some delicious sashimi and get ready for another big workout day later on.
    I guess Mole is still snoozing. He worked late last night. :-)

  • Duuuuuude

    Hedged my spy puts this morning with calls….working well so far. Plan to lift them if we get as high as 896.

  • northernlights

    there has been a lot of declaring “bears are dead” today.
    I believe like you, katzo, that we are closer to the top than to the bottom.
    It has gone up more than 30% in a short time – in the worst global crisis since the great depression.
    How much more up can even the biggest optimist hope that it will get over the next weeks?
    On “The Market Ticker” today, there is an interesting point of view declaring:
    “No, there is not a new bull market”:
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
    stay alive!

  • standard_and_poor

    It looks iffy sitting above 882, I'm currently hedged and may go at least 20%
    net long soon unless we drop below 876 within hours.

  • Osso

    will start a position in FXP once FXI fails taking 33.26….

  • Duuuuuude

    I think he is questioning the usefulness of his comments, given the way he reacted to some leaches comments yesterday.

  • salvadorveiga

    yup

    i guess the job reports in the future won't be so good…

  • Squidman

    Yes, you are harmful to yourself and apparently unable to learn from your mistakes. People like you are why I quit clinical psychology, when I realized people only change when they are ready and of their own volition. I have made 3 bad trades and one good in the past 2 weeks. I'm done now. I need to refocus and get smarter. Good luck all the rest of this week. Lester, you need a lot more than luck.

  • salvadorveiga

    BTW, I bought some MORN and LM during yesterday's session.

    just my mechanical system triggered a buy on those…

    i follow a portfolio of 25 stocks and stick with the signals… i hope they're perfoming good today… morn did a good job yesterday… LM i was slightly undeerwater….

  • BalaB

    Yeah…You're probably right. I tried last night to spark a bit of dialogue (thank you all who humored me) in hopes to ease the pressure.

    I did however get a message last night basically saying I shouldn't even bother trading because the odds are so heavily stacked against me. If anything that comment only strengthened my resolve. Come hell or high water, I'm going to make my living trading these mother F'ing markets.

  • lester

    I like your attitude there. Now if I can figure out how to make $500 per day I will be happy.

  • Squidman

    I certainly hope not because it really pisses me off when a few assholes ruin it for those of us who like to benefit rather than criticize.

  • lester

    Now you are really bringing me down…I still think this is a good place
    to be short…

  • Osso

    FXI hasnt even taken 32.30, nor 32.50…..

  • Squidman

    I saw that BalaB and found it interesting that the snarky shit who tried to say you will never be successful if you spend time blogging, was blogging. Glad your resolved, and I know we can make a decent living at this also.

  • katzo7

    What type of quality do you think these workers are putting into the product now while about to loose their jobs? Downward spiral. WOuld you buy GM or Chrysler now?

  • salvadorveiga

    per day? well it depends on the size of the account… if you have 20K I find that hard to achieve… you have 1 million it ain't that hard :P

  • jacksoo

    Yeah – we seem to be back in the land of irrational exuberance – getting on
    toward 40% rise the way we're going – - avg into ES ~860 so underwater, will
    tolerate a little more draw down but the squeeze is on.

  • Autopsias

    21000 to the streets but still market goes up… oh well

  • lester

    $6 K. It was much higher last year…

  • itsgold

    I'm about to go short here. Hourly RSI on the SPX looks like it's nearing oversold levels. If we break out of 70, the watch for a huge up day and then look to go short. For now, wait and see, but I think we're almost at a point to go short here.

  • Keirsten

    R/S on SPY @ 87.32, 88.77 & 90.67. Channels and trend lines be damned. I'll cut my shorts if we close above 88.77 today and wait for a better confirmation of a downward correction going forward, even if it means missing the “perfect” entry to go short. An EOD close below 87.32 is good for the bearish take today. Just my personal opinion during these gyrations. Lycka till!

  • Duuuuuude

    Hang in there. I have felt the same pain. I am still a bear, but realized that a break above this zone could be painful so I resorted to hedging my shorts. You have to look at the tape we have been into over the last month. No trend really….just consolidation. My hope was we would drop below this box, but we are going higher instead. http://screencast.com/t/3wLmIvFnu I am still a bear, but just trying to protect myself.

    Trading becomes much easier when you can find a trend somewhere.

  • newbear

    Anybody watching the main zero right now?

  • BalaB

    “I know we can make a decent living at this” – Absolutely!

    I have a friend who really rakes in the dough using a very similar strategy we've been discussing. He's been in the biz for 15 years. After two weeks of watching, his 14 year old daughter can do it better than he can.

  • salvadorveiga

    well, even harder :D

    you know that's 10% a day we're talking right?

    I think you have too high expectations…. at that pace 500$ a day you'd quintuple your account in 20 sessions…

    highly unlikely

  • molecool

    What's wrong with iswim?

    Did you check out vpntunnel.uk.com as I recommended?

  • itsgold

    i don't see anything.

  • molecool

    Trading while being surrounded by hot young college chicks – that's the life!

  • Autopsias

    Be careful with those divs, market has been eating them for breakfast…

  • salvadorveiga

    don't even get me started :D

    can't wait for the beach time eheheh

  • wex

    “Lycka till” is that Aussie slang?

  • callie

    I only look at currencies, very hard to trade. Only occasionaly eurusd options, very small.

  • http://sarcasmblog.net Thyme

    Anna, are you still short MA? Earnings tonight and up and V had good results.

  • bsummertime

    Duuuuuuuude

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Screw whoever said that! I love your spirit, especially during times like this. Your ideas are refreshing and I appreciate that you are so open to share!

  • Keirsten

    Swedish for Good Luck! :-)

  • disrespekt

    yes, i am seeing the same momentum divergences you are, and we are at the top of the channel boundary right now

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Hi K. I've done everything in my shorts except cut them. Holding until EOD also. Not sure how much more pain can endure.

  • C's & 3's

    To imply that someone that has a differant market view than you is self distructive is more than a little arrogant.

  • BalaB

    Still working on this idea to target intra-day support / resistance through volume clusters
    Chart of NQ Futures

    Please feel free to chime in….

    http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dfjr22bn_58f9wk4tdk

  • katzo7

    Look at 3 min. SPX. with MACD, market going up, MACDS going down.

  • disrespekt

    You mean overbought. I see the same thing on the 30m RSI. The last time we were up here was April 19.

  • standard_and_poor

    Hated to cut loose some shorts this morn but still net short.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix5e1SVLFXw

  • rhae

    SPX close up view of chart posted earlier… so far trendline holding, maybe even a little bear channel… but early in day…

    http://screencast.com/t/3XkmSd07Y

  • asetrader

    Risk/Reward good for FAZ trade here with stop @ 7.58 imho

  • annamall

    Now @ 402.57 :-)

  • Squidman

    I stand by my clinical assessment, and it's got nothing to do with the market. So what.

  • Keirsten

    Hey Jan! :-) I hear ya! There have been some really juicy early bell trades off of earnings plays though, and I'm going to focus more on that strategy while it's still available during earnings. BARE is a great example of that today- just perusing today looking for future victims. What do you have on your watch list?

  • BalaB

    “Gold is behaving in a very interesting way. The downs, which have been frequent in the US markets and occasional in the European and Asian markets, have been big fast moves, followed by steady increases following immediately on their heels. Institutional gold holdings are being sold, private gold holdings are being bought. Big players need liquidity in spite of effectively negative interest rates. I think that the nature of these large drops in gold paint a very bearish picture.” Marcus Aurelius

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/blog-traff

    (Marcus Aurelius is one of the guys I search out everyday to see their thoughts. I've almost always found his comments extremely informative)

  • annamall

    Mole is a jewel and anyone who doesn't appreciate his tireless work should move on to the other side! :-)

  • molecool

    No – it has not – not on the Zero.

  • annamall

    No thankfully I never got filled (I never chase for a fill! :-))
    Full disclosure I am long calls in Google, IBM, TIF ERTS and long BF in QCOM

    I am short NDQ (1 only) short ES (2)

    I always hedge my book no matter what. :-)

  • salvadorveiga

    DAX starting to fall apart….

    The same in the currencies markets… if the correlation is still valid between market and EURUSD, the turning point should be soon

  • katzo7

    Saw that good point, glad you brought it up.
    $TRAN up big 3.21%

  • thunda72

    LOL… I was gonna say… for a long-dead Roman emperor, he sure has some keen far-reaching market insight! :-)

  • prozor7

    Tomorrow is: May Day
    International Workers' Day, or Labor Day, which celebrates the social and economic achievements of the labor movement.

    Will stock market be open?

  • divergence

    I guess they are just getting ready to buy the dip here, but I hope not.

  • salvadorveiga

    united states… yes

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder when the bulls are going to take profits?

  • annamall

    I bought more SPY puts this a.m. (glad I did) here we finally go I think (volume has been drying up today)

  • prozor7

    thx

  • standard_and_poor

    Want to see 876 soon.

  • thunda72

    No kidding!!!! SHEESH!

  • ropey

    Looking for that gap on the futures to fill, i was hoping today, not sure…maybe tomorrow but certainly by next week otherwise i'll be even more confused..

  • annamall

    I want to see 500 ;-)

  • salvadorveiga

    just broke the Hourly channel /ES… it tested the line… should fall from here i think

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    I'm in analysis paralysis right now. I'll take a look see and let you guys know what I find. Might be a good diversion!

  • Squidman

    Thought I'd pass this on from an old, successful trader friend of mine: “Some fib/gann notes: It will be 55 days from the March 9th lows on the Dow and S&P on 5/4/09. It will be 168 calendar days from the 11/21/08 lows on the qqqq's, and Nas on 5/8/09. This has been important numbers from tops and bottoms over the past 30 years. Retracements are often 1/2 these numbers in terms of time.” FWIW.

  • newbear

    Mole, have to say I love the zero, took action i.e bought more spy puts and paying off.

  • katzo7

    Boy do I love my MACD. While I am not saying this is the absolute top, this ridiculous can go on for some time, I have to take notice at this. Where is the $$ coming from?
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • lester

    I am 100% short with June Puts now.

  • standard_and_poor

    Go easy on the man squid.

  • BalaB

    It's possible we may get another lift fairly soon. It appears selling may be through intra-day.

  • ropey

    Hmm looks that that first 15 min bar will be providing some support at the mo, volume on it is way higher than the current bars…

  • Douala

    I would settle just to see green numbers!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    President Obama: Chrysler and Fiat Have Formed a Partnership That “Has a Strong Chance of Success”

  • standard_and_poor

    You've been talking to that new financial adviser (kitten) haven't you, I can tell.

  • katzo7

    BalaB,
    What I am hoping for/looking at is a failure of this next EW5 attempt on the 3 min. We just formed a EW4. Look at the chart I posted, I should have added the EWs. Two of my other charts, longer term are set up perfectly for this. If 3 min. can break, like 877, then 872, things will be in better shape for failure, thus down.

  • standard_and_poor

    I believe in you too Bala.

  • LostIllini

    What are those?

  • Osso

    Commercials Net Short Positions as of last friday…still too high for a low in Gold…..imo..so further decline coming, that should be anticipated by goldstocks going down and a decreasing XAU/Gold ratio….

  • annamall

    Nice I like MACD too. I mentioned that the volume is drying up a little bit ago. I also believe we are hitting top. Can you imagine all the jobs that are going to be lost from this bankruptcy! The domino effect! Plus this swine flu is an event. We are not out of the woods!
    CNBC always putting lipstick on a pig. (or swine) ;-)

  • katzo7

    Well, yeah, I guess you caught me. But we only saw each other once, honest
    injun.
    How you doin'?

  • Squidman

    I don't know why I care, but watching his reckless behavior for the past 2 months has been frustrating. Continually blowing up an account going “100%” when he clearly has no plan. Thanks for the U2–you have a zen-like look that comes through in your posts. Hmmmmm–I'll try! Anyway, he'll be out of money and gone soon.

  • katzo7

    Mole, you are pretty quite today, pussy got your tongue?

  • molecool

    No, my tongue has been preparing a major lashing – move to the next page.

  • molecool

    NEW POST!

  • standard_and_poor

    Still net short.

  • BalaB

    Cool. I'll take a gander.

    I was just pondering my above statement and actually it was kind of stupid. There can always be more buying/selling. LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Perhaps I should go see her also.

  • Duuuuuude

    Lifted my hedge at 879.5

  • standard_and_poor

    Sorry, I was thinking outloud. I'm driving at the moment and looking for route 876
    which leads to the new financial adviser Katzo recommended.

    Katzo told us about kitten69 at xtrends. Check it out, her or his avatar is of a naked lady. Katzo and I have been having fun with that for the last two days, but keeping it clean.

  • standard_and_poor

    Good to see you Douala! You're looking fit.

  • BalaB

    Thanks Big Man!
    btw, I've learned ton from your charts. TY

  • Douala

    [blush]

    Are you one of those bad boy bikers my mom always warned me about?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I'm locked onto short like a pit bull on a vagrant. Nothing to be gained sitting in front of the screen today so I went out for the whole day. Now home, I'll get back into trolling for new insight for the rest of the evening. Tomorrow is looking a lot more promising……

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Me too B, I listen to what you're thinking, take it seriously, consider it in light of my positions/thesis. You've got as good a shot as any of us near as I can tell.

    Cheers!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    being older & wealthy while surrounded by hot college chicks……now yer talkin'

  • katzo7

    Nice find, just got home to reread comments. +1

  • katzo7

    Sign of a change in direction, when the trolls appear, that and people saying they are capitulating.
    You are the best.

  • standard_and_poor

    No mam, unless you want me to be. Saw you on pikertrader, like how
    you asked him some questions before telling him he was cheap and stingy. On another occasion he asked if you were calling him a liar. Beautiful exchange. Dare you to email me a tune at (comfort888atameritechdotnet). I'm always playing tunes for others, now it's your turn. Btw which part of the south are you from?

  • Douala
  • GoingForBroke

    test2

  • GoingForBroke

    test2





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