Running Flat

UPDATE 12:28pm EDT: Quite frankly, what really bugged me about the wave count was the fact that yesterday’s push up very clearly counts as motive wave. However, on a larger degree all evidence points towards this being a third wave down. I think the updated wave count accounts for that:

The consolidation we probably painted is known as ‘running flat’ in EWT – please see psalm 48:1-40 in our bible. Bear in mind that all this is a bit premature as counting on smaller degrees is a bit adventurous. Usually the small degrees become more clear as the larger degree progresses.

If we turn around right here and rally up – yet again – then something else might be going on altogether.

UPDATE 1:22pm EDT: Updated long RLs for you rats to nibble on:

If 882 doesn’t hold the next stop is at 874 – again, Zero subscribers: Don’t do anything until you see the Zero Lite swing above its zero mark.

UPDATE 2:43pm EDT: Really not much else to say, ladies and leeches – ride it out unless you see the Zero breach is mark. However, the tape is thin now and thus susceptible to manipulation towards the EOD, so tighten your stop above in that you get a clean exit and don’t have to chase if the proverbial excrement hits the fan.

May I also point out that my Cubes channel has been spot on so far? Who’s your daddy?

BTW, some bulls are sending me angry emails. That’s usually a bearish sign – loving it :-)

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 13th, 2009 at 12:35 pm and is filed under Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • CME knocked it out of the park again this afternoon (good 16pt move)
    Honorable Mention: STP, MOS, MON,
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • God check out GS!
  • katzo7
  • If they push ES higher look to add shorts at 902 or 898.25
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    DOWN you go FAShit
  • At least you're not getting emotional ;-)
  • Staying short Google (Google 400 puts rocking )
  • Fujisan
    Wow, this has been such a battleground - Qs tape has not moved for the past 1 hour, sitting right above S4 and 23.6% fib. Let's see who wins this battle today.
  • I think the bears will have their way in the end. :-) (tug of war)
  • Fujisan
    I'm going to add more shorts once this support collapses.
  • ditto my friend! :-)
  • Osso
    XLF 11.44...hard to break.....
  • LOL @ angry bull emails. Mole, are you doing a multi-day market manipulation again? I thought you said you would stop that. Tsk tsk.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    short fas at 8.90
  • cue the selloff music... ought to be a beaut today.
  • Selloff music in next post :-)
  • Ok you guys, the bears are in charge now...don't get wishy washy, yes it will move up from the lows, but that's just the bears cashing in some profit.

    Repost: If you don't have the Zero feed (for a measly 39.00, don't you dare raise it Mole :-))
    run and get it!
    I have made 5 figures this week. (allot due to a mere 39.00 subscription)
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    call me when you make 6 figures lol..xx ooo from COH
  • I told you Keirsten and I have upgraded to Chanel being we made some nice coin!


    God I would love to hit 6 figures (all in 9's) ;-) for the year.
  • when im older i wanna be like you :P

    well not the female part ahahah but the cha ching...


    those 5 figures you made this week is what i made for the year :$ lol
  • Glad to hear that, cause those D's wouldn't look good on you! LOL
  • I wouldn't mind a nice pair of tits - but then I probably would play with myself all day and don't get any work done.
  • hmmm....me thinks you've been into the Vicodin & The MacCallan again.......
  • Especially with D's LOL :-)
  • C.C. Rider
    Do you think it's safe now? Fuck me later!(sp) thank me

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvoeeq-BH4w&feature=related
  • innatedc
    Classic....never get sick of that song.....
  • rhae
    Can they Jam the close?
    with DIA & SPY volume average volume down about 25&
    but QQQQ volume up 16%

    seems like the action is still in the techs...

    I am tempted to go with a push close today... flat, I am not much good at guessing the close.
    prefer to see where short term indicators/ oscillators are are around 3:18
  • innatedc
    Watch for a quick spike up to fake out some bulls and then rip right back down.....just a guess....don't trade on it just what you see.....
  • anthem
    I think you're going to see it gyrate a few times like that. The pump was happening for the last hour, then it dumps. Then it'll gyrate back and forth to shake as many people out as possible. Once you think a direction is established and people start jumping in, they'll reverse it and people will bail out.
  • n2thezonez
    Snag'em with a pump fake.
  • I agree with you Innatedc :-)
  • If I was holding any short at this level I will put stop at 887.

    Good luck everyone. I am sitting on 100% cash and missed this nice run. I can not hate IB enough for making me miss this run.

    fuck IB with elephant dick.
  • anthem
    OK, its wound up like a top right around 884. It's going to be fun seeing what happens at 3pm. . . Oh, to know which way its going to ride. . ..
  • Keirsten
    Dear God, this is so mentally sick, but I'm as excited as a kid on Christmas to see the NYSI when it's posted this afternoon.
  • If it is, then we both totally sick! heh heh
  • Just woke up... Ouch got stopped out of my few longs at open.. I had been waiting for a 3% down day for weeks now. I threw in my bear towel on Monday morning... Ha ha.... Anyway I am not going short now.. I will stay in cash mostly.
  • You crack me up - LOL :-)
  • Alright, show me some love, bitches!
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    I will show you the love when we make new lows for the day :)
  • I did, see several posts below big guy ;-)
  • Keirsten
    (snort and you know why, ROFL)
  • Did you successfully scale out of WYNN :-)
  • Keirsten
    Yes, I covered. I was short, not in options since Monday. +7.83 ching ching ching for this ding-a-ling. :-)
  • cha ching for the bling! :-D
  • Nice trade, congrats ladies. It's really strange that some of the strongest players here are ladies.

    Hey boy-rats - how do you feel about the fact that the girls are continuously kicking your asses?
  • works for me......
  • disrespekt
    this market is a total bitch, consequently they implicitly understand its machinations better
  • LOOOL
  • Thanks Mole, I said zero has been my little guardian angel! (Plus some quick wits) :-)
  • Well deserved if you ask me.
  • Thanks Bala!
  • It's been lousy today - I feel like Rodney Dangerfield (may he rot in peace).

    (I was talking about the love I'm getting - not the Zero)
  • Very clean argument here for watching the 875 level closely:

    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/05/sp-500-pullback-reaches-5.html

    If we break this pattern of pulling back to previous month's highs, then roaring upward again, we should expect a lot more downward pressure to pile on.
  • KidDisco
    I'm actually a subscriber of Bespoke. I personally think their information is useless. As the saying goes:

    "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    I'm going to cancel and sign up for Zero I think.


  • Your money would definitely be better spent on a Zero subscription - I only use Bespoke's blog (which is free of course) as one way to gauge bullish thinking out there but they occasionally post something useful.
  • divergence
    For those on the site who consider themselves immediate term swing traders, the last time I remember a 3 day pattern like this was March 10, 11, 12. Which was a big up, little up, up again. This marked a change in the immediate term trend.

    Are any traders here short SPY or QQQQ's for the immediate term? I had some computer problems this morning, and was unable to get fills during the short bounce after the oil inventory report around 10:30. However, I shorted on the bounce an hour or so ago via short QQQQ's and DIA for an immediate term trade. It was about a 30% position.
  • TroyMcClureRIP
    I'm long SPY June 80 puts.
  • fwiw....if the ES and NQ tape stays this muted.....i would absolutely not take a position EOD based on the current informtaion. the tape is soooooo ripe for manipulation its not even funny
  • anthem
    I agree. It's getting quite "nervous" which means it'll probably swing back and forth wildly into the close. I'm starting to tighten my stops and if they get taken out, I'm staying out and watching. . .

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Well guys how many think we make new lows at the end of the day?
  • Coin flip ?
  • tails ! welll according to RL we are at a reversal point so we should end higher than 881

    im out already though
  • Crap. I wish you could see what a real retracement level looks like. It will SPRING right off the its price level like a hand touching a hot plate.
  • oh so a true retracement levels springs the price off in the opposite direction ? nice... much like it happened yesterday at 912.10 but with more momentum ?
  • EXACTLY

  • gracias :-)
  • Good chance of that happening as long as we don't touch 875 too quickly. If we hit 875 with more than 15 minutes to go you might see a pretty violent snap back.
  • anthem
    I'd like to see a new low of the day, but at this point it looks 50/50 whether we close up/down from here. Currently its slightly positive momentum in a big red day. The longer it builds support here, the higher the liklihood that it'll go up. . .
  • fuw
    I say it can go either way here, but I like the setup for long. Easy to see stop level.
  • fuw
    Bought FAS at 8.75. Lets see if it plays out.
  • Osso
    Silver also made a fake move.....lower lows today and lower highs.
  • way too quiet
  • tranchefoot
    bear trap? where can you find real time short interest? prob only broker dealers have that info and they're not sharing!
  • tranchefoot
    thx
  • Zero has been unbelievably great today!
  • grednfer
    the $NDX is in furious battle for the trendline........and the bears have re-awakened.......accelerating to new lows....and the $RUT too.

    And the downtrend continues.........$$$$
  • Osso
    Oil started a correction pullback...seems...so dont see any bouce chance.... same for commodities like DBC.
    TBT retracing too. Have 2 tgts for a good buy in TBT....way down.
  • innatedc
    Internals say lower gang.....874 here we come....
  • You guys if you don't have Zero, get it. Run don't walk (no Mole's not paying me to say this :-))
    I have done unbelievable today. Its paid for itself 1000 times today ;-)
  • anna,

    How does one work with it? everytime is above Zero you hold the position and once it drops the zero mark you short or get out of longs ?

    I suck at reading signals/indicators
  • Hi Sal, there is a complete tutorial on the site, I read it over many many times and keep it handy to reference to, just like anything after a while you get more familiar with it.

    I swear by it, especially on days like today. Mole also updates you when he see's a change coming (which is nice) and SMS your phone. :-)
  • Gracias :) i was actually referring more properly to zero lite :)... what? his updates in zero also get SMS's ? Lol... or is that because you have Gmail configured to deliver SMS to your phone ? :P

    Doesn't work here in Europe :(

    Glad you'remaking some coin, im out as of today
  • rhae
    If I had problems with chart reading skills I would jump on it with both feet...
  • trendlines holding so far as resistance....

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SgsOSgQGxNI/AAAAAAAAAPk/VJJBwca6kP4/s1600-h/untitled.PNG

    so far have been working seamlessly
  • Autopsias
    Olho gajo tb usa o Best... :)

    Ainda me has de explicar como raio se poe uma Vwap, uma full stochastic e uma MACD como deve de ser (que a que eles tem n ha deus q a entenda!)

    Tenho que usar o TOS para ter charts de jeito...

  • vwap n faço ideia... full stochastic tambem nao... apenas slow e fast... MACD existe :D ufff ao menos uma lol

    Tou no best mas acho q vou mudar pa Orey, mesma plataforma mas em futuros menos de metade do preço 3 USD contrato VS 6,12
  • Autopsias
    Hey you should try Mobiquus, I'm testing it, to receive emails on my mobile phone since it has push email.
    Might be a way out of the whole Sms issue, and a nice way to trade resident.evil mobile.
  • CowardlyLion
    ES and NQ both broke above wedges several hours old at the close of the 2pm candles, but no real buying interest yet.
  • Sold /NQ for quickie 6 points. 1348.00
  • lester
    I didn't feel that quickie.
  • LOL I did ;-) Are you staying put Les?
  • lester
    I am staying short because all my Puts are June. I am going to hold
    overnight as they are June....whatcha think
  • I bet we finish green today
  • Maybe not green but I too think we'll get some kind of pop.
  • yeah, green isn't going to happen, this day seems out of whack
  • Buyers are tapped out and exhausted. :-)
  • tranchefoot
    so are sellers, it seems....
  • haha...I just listened to it 4x in a row. All I can do is shake my head...Unbelievable.
  • ZigZag
    We're goin' down..Down, down, down, down, down.....
  • gotta love SRV...
  • I don't feel that. Someone will be right ;-)
  • has anyone noticed how when zero light gets to middle( yellow) line, then reversal starts?
  • standard_and_poor
    Long from 901 and 884.
  • jacksoo
    hi S&P - also long avg 896 do oyu have an EOD number in mind?
  • standard_and_poor
    Sorry, just happy if we close above 884. Wild guess is 894. 




    ________________________________
  • 880.00 LOD on ES .......RL Levels was nearly right on time.

    Salvadore,
    Re: Retracement Levels - Cools stuff huh? Typically the levels should hit within -/+ 2-3pt range.

    But note: So far we have really low vol. so take this day with a grain of salt. Normally when participation is high, these levels just flow.......
  • Douala
    BalaB

    May I ask you a few questions about Retracement Levels. I do not trade futures or options, solely equities. Would this RL service still be of use to me in the trading of an individual stock or ETF? Also I take it most traders here go for the RL MARKET ANALYSIS for $125/mo?

    Thanks
  • Of course! I love talking about this stuff

    Well, I did use RL Levels to trade the SPYs when 2Sweeties first released it (to get a grasp of the system and what not). It worked out, don't get me wrong but in order to really make money off the the SPYs you gotta wait for oversold/overbought high odd retraces so the likely reversal will be worth wild.

    Ex: Lets say today the SPYs, at 88.00 have a 60% odds of reversing. So, they reverse but only for about .30-.50 cents. In this case, its not really much of a gain vs. having a few ES or NQ contracts and you grab 4-8 pts per contract.

    But at 87.25, they have a 80% chance of reversing and so maybe you make 1.00 per share off that level.

    The problem is, sometimes waiting for the high odd levels can be arduous. (make sense?)
  • Douala
    Balab

    Thank you it does. So the way I see it RL Levels reading are best suited for making $$$ in options and futures trading unless the stock that you are trading is overbought or oversold. Correct?
  • Well.....not always. I'd email 2Sweeties. I'm sure he'll have a much
    better explanation.
  • yup pretty good... i took one loss this morning though at 895 level but had a tight stop... and entered long at 881 although retracement levels showed 882 I went 881 because it was the Fib retracement and the resistance couple weeks back :)

    these things are good :D

    im out already though we're bumped into some resistance have some trend lines and so far they have worked wonders
  • See here's the thing (and I was harping on this yesterday). Retracement levels are awesome when theres a lot of momo...otherwise, we'll get little (sometimes none) recognition of a given level. Now, at 81%, the odds show this level should have held. If it doesn't, imo, this again shows a lack of quant or bot trading. (this is all my opinion and unfortunately I can't prove it. but my research, day trading notes, etc. all lead to the same conclusion.)

    Zero Signal = Participation (it takes a certain amount of momo & vol to create the trend)
    Participation = Respected or Effective Retracement Levels
    Zero Signal (or Participation) + Effective Retracement Levels = Potential Profit
  • so far its holding... let's see...
  • Well wave 5 of B finally finished after that long flat for 4 and then 5. Now we should be starting 1 of 5 of C
  • jacksoo
    for the EW uninitiated alpha can you translate into some price levels - thx
  • roncofooddehydrator
    Sorry, does that mean down or up?
  • fuw
    S&P is setting up exactly as yesterday. Lets see if it follows through or if it is a fakeout.
  • n2thezonez
    It looked like the move up was all futures related, no big $Ticks along the way (that I saw anyway).
  • ckeltner
    Annamall - Any particular retrace you are looking to put the GS vert back on?
  • I will probably see how today plays out before jumping in too soon. Glad we took profits! I will post when I go back in. :-)


    JCI 20 puts are ROCKING
  • ckeltner
    Thanks for the help
  • standard_and_poor
    Mole: horale bato! Thanks for all the EWT updates.
  • Osso
    Guess Indexes, after having failed the test of broken neckline, and the structure of the ED triangle...we could re test March lows.....as long as the re test maintains its failed status.
  • 872.75 is my target on ES.

    If you are short Look for 872.75 to hold if it breaks we are in for some fireworks at EOD
  • Steve
    waffle, I am trying hard to find 872.75, and I can only see 875 area. Unless W3 fury kicks in..what concluded you? TIA.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/3528366377/sizes/o/
  • here's the hint

    2 day 15 min chart -23.6% RL

    It will also explain you why we are keep bouncing off the 881 level
  • Steve
    waffle, the reason why I asked was because your way is quite different from how I use it. I usually follow the waves than pick it as soon a new wave finished, use the retracement for entry and extension for the potential target.

    I could see your 872 target, assuming I pick yesterday's high as the beginning of the wave and today's 880 low for the end of the wave for your 2 day setup, and 872 is 1.236 extension (or your -23.6%).

    I find it quite interesting how you use it, that is all.
  • Steve
    I see, you are a good man charlie brown...You can also use +123.6% fibo extension.

    My question now is what is 881 related to this 2 day range.

    TIA waffle..
  • 881 was the initial low and we dip below to 880 now look closer to 5 min
    chart i see a light uptrend. lol
  • Steve
    Waffle,

    this is how I do it. http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/3529536581/sizes/o/

    First, I would find a swing top or bottom (easier), or you can spot a wave in a middle of a wave (I try to avoid)
    Second, Mark "A" as starting of a wave, "B" at the end of wave.
    Third, Entry between 3/8 ~ 5/8 retrace marked as "C"
    Fourth, Use 1.618 extension as my potential target as in "D", usually the price may stop there retrace some then move to 2.618.

    Best regards,


  • Gap fill from May 4?
  • Osso
    sold USD.....15.65
  • heads up WYNN under 40.00 :-D Keirsten check it out!
  • Keirsten
    Weeeeeeee! Finally!
  • mrclam
    lottery ticket baby!
  • Clamman you know how to leg out of WYNN?
  • mrclam
    not a clue, was just going to close the position :P
  • Are you able to sell the 40.00 puts before closing the 35.00's if you can't then buy back the 35's (the ask is 22.5 cents, try to sell for 20.Cents then you can close the 40's I sold mine for 1.60

    Lets the 30's go out worthless.
  • mrclam
    what is the advantage of this vs closing it all at once? are you closing different legs at different prices?
  • I am up now quite nicely. :-) awesome! I said 38-39 by opx.
  • Keirsten
    I'm covering right here btw- will wait/watch for more. It hit my mark.
  • I am legging out too! :-D
  • Buy /NQ @ 1343.50
  • Autopsias
    Same train... Long NQ/1403
  • Squidman
    Sometimes your martian words are british and your numbers are inverses : >
  • Autopsias
    heheheh

    You think driving a flying a spaceship and trading at the same time is easy??

    I meant 1343 off course... Me and my dyslexia... :)
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