Tuesday Tanking Rub Down

Today’s tape wasn’t fun either - the only large scale moves we got both happened in a few minutes. Anything in between was complete trash. I would usually say something along the lines of ‘typical OPX week’ but it has been like this for the past few weeks now - so never mind ;-)

Zero had a pretty good day - the only caveat was the thin tape signal this morning which made it impossible to read a direction. We however got rewarded with a text book divergence in the late afternoon, which is when I told everyone to be cautious and prepare for a possible pop.

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: -3.5

Geronimo decided to take a scalp in the last few minutes. The official tally for today is -3.5, which is pretty realistic as you probably got a later entry and a later exit - maybe hopefully a narrower spread. Of course - if you held into the close you would have probably made a little profit as the futures are pushing higher right now. So, I think geronimo had the idea right - just not enough time to let it play out. The boys who are playing this game (and whose activities geronimo is based on) don’t stop playing at 4:00pm. I am split on whether or not to let the signal go until 4:15pm - back testing reflects that 4:00pm is a good time to exit. However, back testing is not the holy grail and as the market dynamics change we might have to give those late entries a bit more time.

Nothing to add to my prior wave count. We could drop towards 900 but this motive is a bit long in the tooth and we probably should see a correction soon. In a perfect world we’ll see 928 again, which would be a great spot to load up - 938 would even be better. Any bulls left out there? ;-)

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 16th, 2009 at 4:14 pm and is filed under EOD Wrap Up, geronimo, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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  • Mole

    Great stuff today. Thanks for the kudos.

    We may bounce today but I think We are about to roll over. Let's both keep an eye on the slosh later this week.

    Wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce short term. Opex should be interesting to say the least.

    Treasury sales are back on next week. we need to sell a ton of them. The credit markets will be back in focus. No treasury sales this week.

    Happy trading. I caught this move short this week but my treasury shorts took a little pain.

    Best,

    Jeff
  • Forkability of the decline from 956 makes me question impulsive structure.
    Although it's very close. Drop to 935 more likely an ABC rather than 1
    Typical Wave 3 hits lower channel and frequently penetrates in down - not the case here

    or maybe it's just skewed a bit as Frank buys dips

    http://forkoholic.com/images/spx061609.jpg
    Thanks
    - Forkoholic Serge -
    http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/
  • Another interesting thing - decline started exactly as we hit upper fork's line
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxlongtermarithm.jpg
  • katzo7
    Greenspan was a hero until we found out what he did.
    Bernanke will be a hero until we found out what he did.
    TurboTaxT will never be a hero.
    Obama is now saying we missed the abyss by this much (holding my hands up apart).

    Anyone know what the ASX future is, down 2.15% (australia?)

    And, I want to point out (I hate when ppl say this!) I predicted that a gap down would hang the longs out to dry and not allow the shorts in. Those f**king MMs are good! And you could not even tell anything was happening on Sunday nite. That and a buck will get you nothing at Starbucks. Love those EWs.
  • You are on fire.. what is your outlook for tomorrow ?
  • katzo7
    IMO we go down in the morning and a possible bounce in the afternoon. Have to see the futes tomorrow morning to hone in on this though. If futes are down huge (2-3%) bounce could come earlier.
    MLMT, at some point we will get the EW4 bounce on the 60, hopefully it will not be a big one and the 918-22 levels will hold. If I had my way I'd like to see the SXP push down in the morning a bit more.
  • S&P500 30min (my fav) shows that we are in down W3 now (it is a down wave since RSI under 40)
    target area, most likely will be around 906+/- tomorrow by 10:20AM ( well, you can argue that 10:21 is a better time) and after that it will do W4 stunt to 922 area ( I think Katzo has the same up tgt...damn, I envy the guy - work at strip joint...I would not be trading at all!)

    http://screencast.com/t/J0Xcksuk
  • thelefteyeguy
    does he manage the place...or is he a dancer :)
  • katzo7
    Hey?
  • BrassMonkyBalls
    Lurker dummy nube needed help. Had to figure out dividend risks with SPY. Apologies and thanks in advance.
  • A lot of people are looking for some upside tonight after the 2 day sell off. Currency charts tell me that they will be disappointed... IMO, we should see EUR/USD below 1.3800 and testing the 1.3750-1.3775 region by the time we open.
  • moneyfarm
    I agree with you on EUR/USD. Bought FXE July 136 puts today around 138.80. I'm looking for 135, probably post June OPEX. Also bought July 91 GLD puts today, which should work out well if USD continues to strengthen. Are you trading FX or FX ETFs?
  • I am trading neither the FX nor the FX ETFs.. I use the currency movements to determine which way the equities will go.. and was using that to day-trade OIH, AEM and FCX options all of the June so far.

    I am seeing that currency markets are less random and are the dogs that wag the equity markets.. So I intend to start paper trading FX futures in couple of days.

    I was thinking of buying July GLD 91 puts right before close.. but bailed out. Now I think I should have bought them... I think EUR/USD will be down to 1.3800 by the time market opens.
  • moneyfarm
    I'm pretty interested in the FX movements as well. The options on FX ETFs are very thin in my experience. I need to dedicate some time to studying FX before trading it. The CME e-micro FX look like a good vehicle to start with.
    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/fx/e-micro-e...
  • Kirklandguy
    I wouldn't touch FX options personally...spot forex or CME futures/micro futures are the way to go IMHO.
  • Kirklandguy
    I've been short EUR/USD very small as a core position since 1.401 and agree with your chart there for the most part, the reversal today off 1.395 was quite convincing.
    That said I'm really not sure SPX is going to go straight down to 880 from here, and the EUR/USD H&S was quite sloppy, which leads me to believe it may not just dump straight to 1.35 now.
  • I agree with you that move down to 880 will not be easy... since we chopped around in this range for a while...

    But since we have been thrown back into this range, 875-880 is a certainty in next 5 to 7 days.
  • Continuing my series of currency updates, I have posted another one at:

    http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/update-on-...

    For other posts including my trades from today,

    http://www.mylifemytrade.com
  • Douala
    Fujisan

    Is this correct?

    http://tinyurl.com/lg6j57
  • Fujisan
    That look fabulous, Doula! Thanks for putting this together.
  • katzo7
    I am not a head and shoulderer, and I am not Fujisan. But I know she would approve of this answer. LOL I am an EWer but could right shoulder come up to say 922 (my ceiling number) a bit earlier than you target and then go down?
    And your July 20 should be June 20.
  • Osso
    we may have support at 50 dma on HUI....and GLD.
    Any opinion..????
  • BovineStew
    She is busy getting rested up for her awesome weekend write ups, but she will answer your question after Bagels and Lox in the morning. Have a lovely evening.
  • Fujisan
    How about rice and seaweed??
  • BovineStew
    NOT unless you are Japanese. If you are and you have dirty knees, then you must take a shower won't you? and then we can discuss rice and seaweed if that suits your fancy.
  • katzo7
    Just bagels and lox, no schmear?
  • BovineStew
    a gentleman does not go on a schmearing campaign. Remember that and salmon are biting shiny lures this season and the smoke house is in the back. Please don't hesitate to knock when the lox are ready.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Interesting chart from Kenny..Enjoy

    http://screencast.com/t/24HpVqR6
  • Wimp.

    Love,
    Jorge
  • Z_Bob
    what's up, Horhay! Hope all is well!
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • springheel_jack
    That H&S is indicating 1.34/5 though isn't it? You think it could get back to 1.40? It failed at the neckline 1.395 today.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    If you think stocks will rally then Euro should get up there...
  • sd
  • BovineStew
    You forgot the T between the S & the D, but that is way too much information. Have a nice night, gargle with some distilled water and salt, think white light and call a German in the morning because the rest of us will be at a bed and breakfast.
  • katzo7
    I don't know whether to laugh or cry?
  • BovineStew
    I can only draw from his experience. If you were him you would cry, if you were me you would laugh, and if you were you which you are, you have a choice.
  • katzo7
    Got me. LOL!
  • Agree about the long in the tooth on the decline. This looks like a perfect 5 wave down from 956. However, I think we get a small correction and continue down for a while given that VIX has broken out and SPX has broken under its three month ascending trend line. Pump monkeys may use the upcoming 50-200 holy cross to jack things up a bit tomorrow or Thursday.
  • Here is a chart of what will happen
    https://jrwdga.bay.livefilestore.com/y1mVHNEUHf...
  • daviddt is that a fed census taking quacking well I guess if it quacks it a duck.
  • Bok b-gok!!! That's gotta be a good sign for me!
  • katzo7
    Don't you have to turn that chicken around so it can lay an egg on the other side?
  • springheel_jack
    It looks constipated to me.
  • katzo7
    Go to bed SHJack, I need you rested for the big game tomorrow.
  • springheel_jack
    Well, that's the first drunk duck candlestick pattern I've seen in a while.
  • jacksoo
    that's a nice pigeon......
  • Osso
    ..
  • BovineStew
    This has to be the most incoherent statement I've seen in a Gulag, but nevertheless, we like you. All is well.
  • .
  • BovineStew
    scratch that osso, second only to DavidT.
  • Oh, come on
    I saw what Osso wrote: " .. " and immediately thought: "Russians are coming!"
    and started to use Morse code
  • katzo7
    F**king funny David.
  • BovineStew
    ROFL! +1 for this incredible desire you have to be first (.) , always.
  • Kirklandguy
    And let the fireworks begin on forex...
  • DesertEagle
    what's crackin in forex
  • Kirklandguy
    Mostly the yen going all over the place, stops got run just below yesterday's low on USD/JPY, at which point it was promptly reversed back. Picked up around 45 pips on some Yen futures (6J) so far.
  • Squidman
    I thought that was a stop run. Thanks for confirmation.
  • Kirklandguy
    Make it 60 pips now, USD/JPY picking up steam.
  • Scoops
    Atilla posted what I've been thinking lately, which is to buy some way OTM Vix Calls. I like November 45s 50s for 1.60/1.10
  • http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ talks about selling VIX puts today.
  • I would be careful trading VIX options - too many games being played with that thing.
  • Damn, I did not know that my VIX Jul25c were illegal here :(
  • BovineStew
    If this is what she told you, then I would stay away. Safer game elsewhere.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Yea not even me is trading that..Not now...
  • Kirklandguy
    +1, and the behavior of far month options won't be what you expect if a big move in the VIX happens with many months to go for your options.
  • springheel_jack
    Interestingly Bloomberg mentioned that there were a lot of Vix Aug 50 puts being sold today.
  • Scoops
    Planning my plunder, and noticed 38K of Sept. EEM 30 puts were traded today.
  • OK everyone here is part 6 if Snap's series of Trader Psychology: DOUBT
    http://www.optionsvista.com/snaptrader/190-trad...
    Enjoy!
  • Not bad of a writing, not bad, but...
    That "doubt" part has to be eliminated as a first step of traders' development.
    "When in doubts - GET OUT"
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • springheel_jack
    Interesting. It would need to play out soon tomorrow really. Not much room left in that wedge.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    If this is a wedge shape playing out i feel we should see a quick turn up sometime WEdnesday..
  • springheel_jack
    There is serious resistance at 907. That would fit.
  • Mole and everyone, check out put / call ratio, highest close since march 30th:
    http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/...
    Last 3 times it got a bounce from that level within 2 days, could be perfect bounce to short this stinker
  • P/C ratio and $CPC has been psychotic lately - be careful relying on that.
  • prescient11
    Everyone getting so confident on the short side makes me wish I hadn't lightened up my spys in the AH. Looks like we could be do for a bounce in the morning.
  • katzo7
    IMO we go down in the morning and a possible bounce in the afternoon. Have to see the futes tomorrow morning to hone in on this though. If futes are down huge (2-3%) bounce could come earlier.
  • springheel_jack
    Yes, you're right. I wonder if the bounce will clear 920 katzo. I'll be adding shorts there, but there'll be room for more if we go higher.
  • katzo7
    Hard to say until I see the morning action SHJ. 918 & 922 are possible ceilings, anything above that and we consider running. LOL

    You see my VIX chart, very very promising for a good long run. But I am not counting my chickens before they hatch.
  • Osso
    Is anyone wondering what the reaction will be, once
    the already UNAVOIDABLE 50/200 dma cross from below on SPX happens..???????...from the MMs and fund managers POV...????
  • Keirsten
    Not sure it's unavoidable- they often kiss and repel. (Must have bad breath LOL) The Qs have already had the cross and still tank, so a correction might keep things stalled out. The weekly charts are telling an altogether story on those MAs. I know the pundits were discussing it earlier in the week, but that chatter seems to have gone silent. All the shorter term MAs are curling down here as well. It'll be fun to see.
  • BovineStew
    I am sorry to hear that your date did not go so well. But I think you are horse radish to a hunk of prime rib. Never give up and don't forget to order that DVD for Katzo.
  • Keirsten
    Snort. You're a riot Bovine-stud. Is it Friday yet?
  • BovineStew
    If it was would you be on that blind date that repels you so much? Highly unlikely, you save those for Tuesdays... I have to work tomorrow and I am so tired. Besides It's happy hour at Bo Vine on the night I am rested and you are asking me all these silly questions. I have to go.

    It's ok. Snort. and it was certainly nice meeting you. Let's do this some other NOT snort... I mean night.
  • Keirsten
    Deal. ;-)
  • Osso
    the angle of the uptrending 50 dma and the downsloping 200 dma...mmmm......anyway, as you said, the Qs did it....and thats the reason they are still above the 20 dma, even with all this pullback.
    Sofar, all pullbacks have been of approx. 50 points......so we are supposed to bounce at 906/09..... take care, and tks for your response.
  • Osso
    could a crash move down.....avoid it...?????
  • Keirsten
    Absolutely- doesn't even have to be a crash.
  • SPX 200dma at 907 today, 905 tomorrow. That is where we bounce IMO. 50dma at 890 tomorrow... If 905 gets taken out, 890 surely creates a bounce.
  • Trader Jose
    E-mini DMA is at 894 tomorrow am.
  • katzo7
    You see the stuff on the other blog MLMT? I stood up for you desi.
  • Can you send me the link to what you are talking about on my email id - you already have that... Thanks
  • katzo7
    It was scrubbed off, erased. Just went and looked.
  • Hmm let me go and check that out... I am guessing it is the same asshole.
  • katzo7
    Had a battle on another blog and the yahoo said my calls were bad. Boohoo. You all think I am doing a shitty job? Nailed that f**king top good!

    This is what I see, will post a chart maybe later. But this is a broad view.
    SPX
    WEEK-looks very good and there is a case to be made that this is the start of the big one, the big kahuna down to just below 600. Any really bad news shit could cement this deal!
    DAY-looks good too, in a confirmed down trend as SHJack said earlier. This will take awhile to play out IMO.
    60-slight problem, I am hoping for the EW3 to be pushed down but we will get a small pop IMO at some point. Tomorrow afternoon? Again, I'd love it if 918 and definitely 922 contained any pop. And actually instead I'd love to see it drop straight to 200 SPX but not going to happen. LOL
    15-looks like a slight sell off in the beginning of morning and then maybe the pop shows its face.
    That is what I see peeps, now what can go wrong? Hit the showers. LOL
  • fademe
    Just don't be the guy in every bad movie that gets hit by lightning/falls off a cliff/etc right after proclaiming himself invincible ;)

    I think 200 DMA provides some bounce on S&P...many stocks right around their 200 DMAs...also if this does not hold, 880 could be a tough nut to crack...not to mention the crazy buy-the-dip crowd is unlikely to give up so easily...My thinking is by the time this tops out for good, almost nobody will be calling a top and it seems too soon timewise...but of course anything can happen and probably will.
  • katzo7
    "Just don't be the guy in every bad movie that gets hit by lightning/falls off a cliff/etc right after proclaiming himself invincible" No, I would probably get bitten by a rabid fox! Ohhh, I already did! Yeah getting a bit carried away with myself. But good calls are like tops and bottoms, you can feel the tension in the air.

    "not to mention the crazy buy-the-dip crowd is unlikely to give up so easily" As I said before, the are all in the Hamptons, you would be too if you made 41% or more. I don't see them as an issue anymore, And I am on to there tricks now. I don't have to see more than 3000 of these afternoon PPT spikes to catch on.

    "My thinking is by the time this tops out for good, almost nobody will be calling a top and it seems too soon timewise" You do have a point there but consider this. As I said there is a chance that we have already topped, I just want to put that out there. Any real bad news would cement that deal. I have read so many forecasts that we go into the 800s in June/July, then up to 1000 into fall, then tank after that ot 600 even I am starting to believe it. I bought tickets for the event online! There is nothing that says we have to go to 1000 or 1050 ot 1100, or 1200 (the estimates I have seen). Brokers throw out these numbers, remember GS and the oil at 200$?) artificially.
  • Wave_Surfer
    I am thinking Wave 3 will take us to below 400 in S&P or possibly a fair amount lower than 400 if it is extended.

    18 months down
    3 months up
    24 months down?

    Maybe. I agree it is a possibility because it went so sharply without much of a decent retracement. Still 1 of the 3 months was basically flat. 2 months of "UP" seems a bit light for what will probably be over 40 months of down.

    Personally, I see a move down and then another powerful shot up to new highs as getting done what needs to be done before Wave 3.
    1) It is needed to bring in lots of money that is still sitting on the sidelines by the people that control Billions, when the market dips enough. There is too much money on the sidelines now for Wave 3. It will want 'everyone' ALL-IN so that it can be far more powerful in destroying. It will be harder to bring down the house of cards if some of these funds still have some cash as a cushion or margin.
    2) When we turn around and SHOOT back up, Bulls will be saying to bears, "SEE! THERE Is your base that you guys said we needed in order for this to be the bottom."
    3) Gives people a chance to express their fears for a bit... get that negative energy out, so they can be even more orgasmically and completely given over greed, complacency and hope.

    We barely started the move down and people are 'negative.'

    I keep thinking about how Wave 1 was an entire YEAR OLD before 'regular' people were even aware there was any problem at all!

    People may not be able to slumber for that long in Wave 3, but I would think that for at least 4 months into Wave 3, there will be a lot of 'regular' peasant type people that will not really be afraid.

    All of that is what will allow 3 of Wave 3 to happen.

    As a bear I have liked the idea of that wave to change my family's finances, but as it gets closer and as I see that Wave 3 and Wave 5 and post Wave 5 will be BIGGER and DARKER chapters in the History books than The Great Depression, WWII and the Holocaust and we are getting to the point when activities that will be - not as large, but - LARGER than those are becoming more imminent, I find myself unable to be enthusiastic.

    As false and baseless as this move up on hope fumes has been, I do not think we have purged enough fear deep down inside of us in order to be primed for the move down that will be the darkest chapters of the last 250+ years of history.

    I think one big key that are are rolling over to Wave 3 will be that we will move down several percent (say over 10%) and there will still reign complete fearlessness and complacency by the population at large, then will come Wave 2 which will be rather similar August 2007.

    Then we will move down HARD!
    Then some financial news / crisis like October 2008, but much larger and more dire will happen.
    Then after the credit market actually seizes up totally and the world is coming undone, then some other truly, truly horrible thing will happen.
    Some time after that, we will finish Wave 3 of 3.

    So, as much as it makes my head want to explode, I am trying to actually enjoy this insanity and profit as much as possible during these Pollyanna months because now that it is more imminent, I am no longer able to want Wave 3 to come. Plus I don't want me or my family to be living in our current city by the time Wave 3 of 3 happens and there are other preparations we/I need to make.
  • Osso
    Rydex Bull Funds at peak. Why ..."so many $$$$ in sidelines..".....?????
  • katzo7
    Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. It is not like the MMs use a different set of TAs than we do. I don't think they are loading up like mad when we get a down move, they know what a bottom looks like.
  • Wave_Surfer
    The Mutual Funds that had no idea a bear market was coming and lost 50% to 60% of their clients money.
    Some of them moved to cash in oh.. say February.
    And they were equally not smart enough to move all-in in March.

    I have heard enough from reputable enough sources of people living in a different world than us small speculators to indicate that there is a lot of money on the sidelines.

    These people are in a different world than us. Evidently, they see nothing we do or else they would not have been all-in long from Sept 07 to Feb 09.

    I feel confident there are enough billions sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in.
    Just like many of us kept shorting this rally because we were expecting a proper retracement, similarly, I believe there are billions of dollars waiting for a proper retracement to enter the market.
  • katzo7
    Actually Wave_Surfer, have to say this and hate to point out anyone who is wrong. Mutual Funds are obligated to have a huge portion invested at all times. So even if they knew bear was coming, they could not do anything. Someone correct me if I am wrong but I think it is like 80-90% invested at all times. Stock based mutual funds cannot go into cash. So that is why they lost 50-60% of client's cash. If client deemed to move into a cash reserve account, then the client could have protected themselves. I moved into cash in August.
  • Wave_Surfer
    Possibly not all funds have the same rules. <shrug>
    I was just talking with a friend about selling his funds and moving his 401k to some kind of cash equivalent.
    He mentioned that one of the employees of the fund was recently bragging to him about how little they lost because they were able to move to a semi cash equivalent (money market fund, T-Bill, T-Notes, etc)

    I have heard other Mutual Fund managers talk about a massive amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a retracement to pile in.

    I have also been hearing about company's threatening to fire whole trading desks because they are not invested enough.

    Maybe I am wrong. I honestly can't say I know this for certain, and I am open to changing my opinion, but for now, my opinion is once the market drops enough, it will rocket up!
  • katzo7
    Jeez, a lengthy response, it is not like I have a Phd or something!

    "We barely started the move down and people are 'negative.'" Watch cnbc, there are green shoots growing out of their a**es.

    "Wave 5 will be BIGGER and DARKER chapters in the History books than The Great Depression" IMO this will be a life changing event, isn't it interesting just when many baby boomers thought retirement was going to be smooth, and I would bet the Bogles (Vanguard) and the Johnsons (Fidelity) have pulled their cash out in advance, we get this, housing values (cannot sell that asset) IRAs, 401s gone.
    While TurboTaxT and Curley can control what happens in the US, they have no control as to what other countries do. Iceland was small potatoes.
    I brought this up 1/2 year ago, if we are all short and the banks collapse, do you think we will be able to pull our evil gains out of the brokerages? And during any panic sell off, a major spike down and substantial reversal, the classic sell off not like the V bottom, all they have to do is to shut down the internet and we are f**ked. Oh, and it was a technical glitch, a cockroach crawled into the mainframe. LOL
  • Wave_Surfer
    >And during any panic sell off, a major spike down and substantial reversal, the classic sell off not like the V bottom, all they have to do is to shut down the internet and we are f**ked. Oh, and it was a technical glitch, a cockroach crawled into the mainframe. LOL

    Ya. I am not ready for that yet, but definitely an issue.
    Similarly, the brokerage firm may not be able to give us the cash we earn.
    If I am disciplined enough, and if I am smart enough, I will probably close all positions and send almost all the cash to a "reliable?" bank at the end of the 3 of 3 wave and maybe wait to see what institutions survive.

    In which case I better grow some cash before then. Sadly, I am not prepared yet.
  • Osso
    K7......
    Is anyone wondering what the reaction will be, once
    the already UNAVOIDABLE 50/200 dma cross from below on SPX happens..???????...from the MMs and fund managers POV...???
  • Holy "sun of a gun" .... weekly stochastics have rolled over .. now it depends on where we close this week of course... A similar roll over happened in early May.. But it is the weekly roll over back in March that sealed the deal for the bulls...

    Although I have my own doubts as to if this is the big one.. For that to happen, both financials and commodities have to take out the march lows.. I dont see that happening with weak dollar and govt intervention. Also, all will agree that the crash of last Oct was triggered by the Lehman fiasco.

    I just see a retracement that might go as deep as 790-820.. and then a move up to 1100 and above.
  • springheel_jack
    I'm with your scenario here MLMT. P3 would take a major shock of some kind to play out directly from here I think.

    That might be wishful thinking though. Your scenario followed by P3 would be very sweet.
  • katzo7
    Just raising it as a possibility SHJ.
  • springheel_jack
    No, you're right. It is a very real possibility. The right combination of circumstances could make this P3.

    I hope not though. We'll all make a fortune on MLMT's scenario, but that won't make it happen. The probabilities still make it a more likely scenario from here though. Fingers crossed.
  • katzo7
    Hear ya loud and clear but just wanted to raise that issue. The unforeseen is out there, just a matter of when it comes to fruition. Israel decides it wants to drop in to Iran for dinner unannounced, Houston we got a problem.

    I have read some great scripted plans, we go down in June and July, go up in August (ever trade August?, a f**king nightmare), and tank in the fall. I am buying tickets for this event it is so scheduled.

    Also, if you had said to me in March the SPX was going to rally 41%, I would have said man you are crazy. The news was very shitty back then, we are now in the Obama miracle. The sun is shining. LOL

    And SHJack discussed PEs last nite. Still way to high, either earnings are going up (you think that will happen?) or prices come down. No other way.
  • lilme
    Right, good idea, good shower....you have 'too much time on your hands' methinks...Mr. Katzo7
  • katzo7
    Well, I did go to work today lilme for an hour.

    I was going to post a pic of SPX but this is even better. This is really sweeeeet guys.
    Another piece of the puzzle. David is da manz on this one. LOL
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...

    Week also backs this up.
  • Mole - here is some food for YOUR thought.

    I am not doubting you, only trying to understand - What do you need to see that will tell you that this is primary {3} - I just don't want to rule that possibility out...

    Second, if we do not bounce back up tomorrow - instead if we gap down and keep going down all the way to 880 - what is your plan in that event?
  • Osso
    guess breaking 875.
  • Hmm.. I would doubt that.. after a 40% move up.. a merely 8% move down and you are saying Primary {3}..

    For me, this is primary {3} if we breach 820.
  • Mole what if this is a series of 1-2-1-2 and we have an extended 3rd wave? that would put us quite lower before a bounce no ?
  • How low would 3 go then?
  • Peasant
    Salvador, what do you mean by 1-2-1-2? on what timeframe? I see a clean impulse wave down on SPX from Thursday afternoon highs to Today's afternoon lows on the 15 minute bars and it looks like we're currently in wave 5 of it. Sounds like you are suggesting an alternate count but I don't know what the 1-2-1-2 is. I'd like to see a retrace up to 934-939 region and then bet the house for the next leg down.

    Either way - good luck to you.
  • 1-2-1-2 is a 3rd extended wave... it could be but I'm hoping it's not and from the behavior of the futures I think it's not me hopes
  • GoCougs
    Off topic: Does anyone on this board know somebody at Goldman Sachs private wealth management (preferably a west coast office)? I want to know the current climate within the company and how employees see the stability moving forward (i.e. losing clients, gov restrictions etc)
  • Fujisan
    My excitement starts in Asian trading hours. I'm expecting another impulsive move on GBP/JPY.
  • Kirklandguy
    I had great fun trading /6J (JPY/USD futures) last night, and quite profitably I might add. Looking forward to the same tonight, as well as GBP/JPY!
  • Watchout I've been warned once you go Forex you never come back... lol
  • Fujisan
    Exactly. I had to stay up late last night just to capture all these explosive move. This is so much fun!
  • Squidman
    If you two are having so much fun why don't you post some tonight--I'm around and would like to learn.
  • Fujisan
    If you have TOS, they have FX platform, so you can papertrade and see if you like it. I use Person's Pivot for a daily entry/extit and it works out very well.

    For JPY related currency trades (like GBP/JPY, USD/JPY), the price movement goes to the direction of the trend and it normally starts right around this time when Asian market opens (4:00 PST), and once Asian trading hours are over, it tends to move to the other direction (during Euro trading hours).

    So, if you like to papertrade, this is a very good time to enter (I normally enter right before 4:00), with a stop right above a high of previous hourly candle).
  • Fujisan
    Oh, it's pretty much the same as future trading. You can use whatever the sell/buy signals that you are currently using and apply the same method to currencies. The only difference is it's highly leveraged so you have to have a very tight stop to avoid any major drawdowns. Also, Euro trading hours tend to be very vicious.
  • Squidman
    Thanks Fujisan. What is the margin requirement for TOS if you know or what do you recommend?
  • Fujisan
    I use FXCM for my currency trade so I don't know TOS requirement, but I like have enough funds available so that I could risk only 1% of the total fund per trade.

    As a start, you can trade 1 lot at a time, and increase the number of the lot once you get a hang of it.

    Go to FXCM website and you will find a tons of tutorials.
  • Squidman
    Cool thanks. I have the Person's up now and will follow along!
  • Fujisan
    Very good! I'm expecting a H&S pattern on GBP/JPY so if you missed the short entry, you can go long right at S2 which is a neckline (probably around midnight tonight).
  • look at you all happy :-P

    still in GBPJPY ? ;)
  • Fujisan
    Yup. I closed half last night and re-entered this morning.

    Did you have a chance to go short this morning?
  • My dear Fuji, yup I did get the chance entering this morning... got in at GBPJPY and GBPUSD ;)
  • katzo7
    Jeez, get a room! LOL
  • LOL
  • Trader Jose
    Mole,

    Re. Geronimo ... let it ride to 4:15 est, IMO.
  • RIMM looking sick to me - http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/rimm-looki...

    It might be time to put on a vertical put spread for the earnings.
  • Fujisan
    Consider putting OTM calendar for directional trade for earnings. You can pocket IV premium plus directional move. I'm planning to put ATM calendar on.
  • long or short - I am guessing you are biased to be long... what strikes - I am guessing that depends on where we are Thursday afternoon?




    ________________________________
  • Fujisan
    I'm going right in the middle; i.e., long ATM calendar 80 strike price (assuming that's where RIMM is trading on Thursday). If you are bearish, you can pick 75 strike price. I had a high success rate by picking ATM calendar right before earnings.
  • Fuji - What is your take on RIMM for tomorrow. I am in 85/90 VCS and an 85 calendar spread.
  • SierraSeller
    Hi Fujisan: My earnings calendar memory is a little rusty so bear with me. It seems like the trade would be short June 80 call(s) and long July 80 call(s) for a debit. And as deltas are almost even(55/56),the strategy is: if price upon earnings news is flat or up, the June call IV (153) will drop more than the July call (30) and profits result; if price drops both IV's will rise; possible loss. Am I close?
  • Fujisan
    Yup, you got it pretty much.

    The only thing that I would point out is that, even if the price drops, if it's within a range of 1 standard deviation, it's already priced in so front month IV won't spike up - rather, it will come down. As long as there is no major price move upon earnings you will make money.
  • SierraSeller
    Hi Fujisan:

    I did some research on RIMM, (see link), looks like the risk on the downside
    could be considerable: in Sept 08 RIMM dropped 22%, and in June 08 dropped
    10% from the close of the earnings day to the following day's close. which
    would match earnings today AMC and tomorrow's prices.

    http://www.sheridanmentoring.com/index/method/u...

    Also, any thoughts on doing this with puts and calls ie. iron calendar?
    thanks
    bill
  • Fujisan
    I was not able to view the link but here is my thoughts.

    I was looking at the past 4 earnings and 3 out of 4 were released after OPX, and they all gapped up/down with a huge move.

    The only earnings released right before OPX pretty much stayed the same price range and that's what I'm going for. I'm going with 75/80 double calendar.

    Of course this is my assumption and you can take what's comfortable for your own risk assessment.
  • SierraSeller
    P.S. Played around with the TOS simulated trades and decided do a 4 lot of
    the 75/80 calls, double calendar and add insurance of 1 July 90 call and 2
    July 70 puts to cut the risk of extreme moves: BP: $3055, max loss $220;
    max profit $780; 1 std dev touching = $480-$500 profit (15% of Bp in 1 day,
    ok for me).
    Good Luck.

    Bill
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