Pain In The Ass Wednesday Rub Down

Damn, that was some pain in the ass tape:

Not going to comment much on this mess as I’ve got some kind of allergy related sinus problem and my head hurts. This tape didn’t really help either - we basically did the Chinese Snake Wiggle around the zero mark all day - net effect we ended down the SPX by 1.25 points - hoorrrraaaayy!!!

Program Trading Report:

evil.rat/ES: -4.5
evil.rat/NQ: -3
resident.evil/ES: -4.5
resident.evil/NQ: -3.25
geronimo/ES: +1

I will be in touch later this evening with a quick chart - need to get some rest now.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 at 4:20 pm and is filed under EOD Wrap Up, evil.rat, geronimo, resident.evil, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • rhae
    I have a difficult time understanding anything complicated. So this one is about as simple as it gets... Someone mentioned the 200 sma recently and I did not pay attention, slap! slap!
    SPX daily super simple..
    http://screencast.com/t/IpIGz4YQ
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • This site sucks.. twice I came here to post something.. got so engrossed in the comments.. replied to some comments .. AND went away without posting what I had intended to post.. So here it is:

    "If I were a betting man, which I am not, I would say that the lows of the night for the futures are in.. they will melt up from here"
  • C's & 3's
    Nice backtest of the breakdown in EUR/USD http://www.screencast.com/users/ed_ryan/folders...
  • Nice chart.. I have been staring EUR/USD chart ... hmm... 8 hours a day for last 30 days and I never spotted that trend line that you drew.. Good stuff dude..
  • Here's one of my own discoveries that I stumbled across when I was trying to find something to predict tops. It's a 3 part system, the first two involve the RSI 14 and the Slow Stoch 60,5 and the third is a cross of the 10 and 20 EMAs on a daily S&P equal weight to S&P chart - $SPXEW:$SPX. The two indicators have triggered but it has not yet been confirmed by a cross of the EMAs, though they are .001 from crossing. the 10 crossed over the 20 on Mar 12 and they have not uncrossed since, maybe tomorrow

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...
  • ckeltner
    Thanks, didn't get a chance to look through your stuff last night, will spend some time today. Thanks for sharing.
  • thelefteyeguy
    wow...this one is pretty awesome!
  • This one is incredibly reliable, it's from Cobra, http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ it's will need to be confirmed tomorrow, but it has NEVER failed to mark a top. This is Yong's own discovery and I have watched it for some time and have no reason to doubt him regarding it's accuracy.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...
  • Osso
    $NYSI gave a confirmed (2nd. time)..sell signal. Check it with 1 day MA and/or parabolic sar.
  • yeah thanks I follow the $NYSI and $NASI and the cumulative advance declines. the first two seem to trigger a bit prematurely
  • Osso
    made a post with a wave count (projected...hehe)....considering we topped at 956. Its below...if you want to share some ideas....welcome...and critics of course.......
  • another topping indicator, this one triggered today, is the slow STOCHs (60,5). for the first time since it broke above 80 back in April it cross back below 80 today.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...
  • rhae
    My DD is a PIA tonight... my scans are flipping DXD,FAZ,SDS to short (short term). The good thing is they are no longer counter trades when they go up... but suggesting a short term pull back for those bearish ETF's. However my statisical analysis says more upage to go, with them. Now isn't that just sweet. I prefer them to track in the same direction... but a direct conflict. What to do? I may grab a long or two for a hedge.... Problem is I have no long Etf's generating good long set-ups. Several gold miners and ACI possibilites... for now it looks like a mess.
    I think SPX daily needs to make up it's mind soon, a couple days to a week? Maybe after Quadruple witching..
    http://screencast.com/t/PojI7ssUHg
  • Well, I managed to crawl onto my desk chair to complete this post...hopefully you like it. Going back to bed now.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/
  • rhae
    Hope you get to feeling better soon... I want you in good form when the fun begins. As you can see from my post above... My feeling is that the market just went trendless which makes it difficult to get a bead on it...
  • I am getting concerned for myself and those who are long RIMM going into earnings (Note that I have a perfect record with RIMM earnings - I got them WRONG 5 out of 5 times - lost real money 4 times and paper money once)

    I got into Vertical Call Spreads and Calendar Spreads today... I will be getting out of them tomorrow on any pop. The high IV tells that a big move is coming. If I can't get out, then I might add a couple of Vertical Put Spreads to hedge myself.
  • lisa
    Sell signal for RIMM is the price <$80 which was triggered yesterday. I am holding RIMM shorts.
  • Thanks for your post.. What indicator triggered the sell signal on RIMM? I posted one myself after Tuesday's close - http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/rimm-looki...

    My forecast was based purely on price and volume action.

    I am more concerned about the RIMM earnings announcement AH tomorrow. If I were short, I would be careful. They knocked it out of the park last time.. And the implied volatility shows big move coming.
  • LOL - I forgot to add what is concerning me. Here it is:

    The number of calls are WAAAAAAAAY higher than puts. Also, the number of open call positions has increased quite a lot. The stock has traded down the last 3 days.. Now I know that it is because of the broader market and not due to something to do with RIMM itself. In past, whenever it has traded down going into earnings, it has gapped down after the earnings.

    I have a feeling that exuberance with RIMM might have gotten ahead of the fundamentals of the stock.. I haven't made up my mind.. I will be up tossing a coin 1000,0001 times and if heads outnumber the tails, then I go long else I go short - LOL... j/k.. I am looking to stay the hell out...
  • Hi Mylife--
    6 out of 6, wrong? cause I've done it too!
    If you decide to short RIMM, let me know.
    I think RIMM goes up!
  • As of this moment, I have a bunch of vertical call spreads - June 85/90 - got them for $89 a piece.. I think I will close them tomorrow if I get a chance... And guess what, it will then close at 90 bucks Friday EOD - and again I WOULD BE WRONG because I chose to sit out - LOL

    I will let you know what I do - how about you do the opposite trade and WE SHARE THE LOOT - LOL :-)

    I am still tossing the coin - I have to toss it 1,000,001 times - I am at the 10,001st toss right now. Hectic day ahead of me...
  • Who wants to talk about topping indicators?
  • is it whipped too?
  • Here's one, very simple, but very effective, it's probably more intermediate that guaranteed long term, but still should confirm we are in a major correction.

    Daily SPX chart, RSI 14, yesterday crossed below 50 for the first time since the 2nd week of March

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...
  • I'll really start getting excited about this downturn and the possibility that it's P3 if it crosses on the weekly, check it out, pretty close.
  • oops mrs. alphahorn wants me to join her for a glass of wine, be back in bit. more to come
  • thelefteyeguy
    *sticks hand up*

    EDIT...digusting away...Thanks in advance
  • thelefteyeguy
    Cobra's blog has a pretty convincing chart that has indicated a top...(lol but was wrong the last 2 times...this times it's very convincing...huge spike up

    http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SjmjhMLAFsI/A...

    all credit to Cobra!
  • Osso
    btw.....should 918 be breached to the upside...we could still have topped at 956, as long the next wave up does not exceed 936......
  • Osso
    yes..!!!! alpha posted it too.....above....GL...& tks for comments.....see you at spx 315 !!!!!
  • Osso
    couldnt figure out your wave 4 down in the chart...... from where do you see wave 5 up starting....???? tks.
  • Osso - you are correct since even W3 down has not been confirmed yet (you were talking about red wave down, correct?)

    IF - you were asking about Up (green) wave W5 up most likely started today (TLG is correct)
  • thelefteyeguy
    i think 904...wave 5 started today (his analysis)...

    my concern is that there are tons of indicators that say otherwise right now...unless wave 5 spans 4-5 months cause right now it's the summer, and I dont see a lot of ppl buying stocks at the moment (volume in recent weeks are low, it's not like there's a lot of money ppl have that can throw it into the market)

    but I definitely respect your call
  • that was 30 min chart :0
    on daily WA down either started or about to start
    http://www.screencast.com/t/3nZ2JiAJ7gd

    on weekly W5 down about to start

    http://www.screencast.com/t/yypwxnNNqR4
  • Mole sucks.

    :)
  • you suck assnuggets
  • Check this out - a phone that charges without wires or cables:

    http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/143945

    I think Beanie must dump solars now.. and move onto this - LOL
  • Tomorrow at 8:30 jobless claims - 4 wk ma will probably dip below 600K for first time in months. Also, Leading Indicators are probably going to look good at 10. Heistner speaks at 9:30. 200-50 MA cross is on deck.

    All this to say that I think another excellent opportunity to get short around 927-935 is brewing.
  • I hope so too.. But don't you think that what would surprise most people is putting in another higher high ? Now that would make the bulltards really really confident that the market will never go down NOW.

    If I were a MM, I would swing the market back up once more... hee hee hee
  • sirgiyan
    Couldn't agree more. In my view there TWO possibilities
    1) We go much higher then everyone thinks. (double top would make sense - Put/Call ratios support this view) also VIX has a HUGE resistance it bumped into today and a HUGE gap to fill. I'm not going short before that gap on the VIX is filled regardless of the price at that moment
    2) We go straight down towards 880 or so (I don't think so as the sentiment (measured by PUT/CALL is already very bearish)
  • springheel_jack
    Let's hope so.
  • lilme
    This won't cure your headache, just confirms that you probably should have one:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b5e399d2-5ad3-11de-8c...

    We in some big doo doo here. there and everywhere.

    If you read 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith. he describes how much of what we are going through in terms of economist hype is the same. (it is a short book for those with limited time.)
  • springheel_jack
    Particularly good book as he was writing in the late 50s & early 60s when leverage was rediscovered & misused leading to the great 70s bear markets. He commented on that in the book. Reading it now when something similar has happened again? Spooky.
  • Osso
    Mole and other ES EWs......:
    What if.....

    Wave 1) 956-936
    Wave 2) 936-946
    Wave 3) i) 946-920; wave ii) 920-928 ; wave iii) 928-886 ( 1.618 x wave i)) ; wave iv) 886-912 ? ; wave v)912- ????. Wave 3) ends at 886 or lower.
    Wave 4)........
    Wave 5)........ END OF WAVE 1 DOWN.
    Assuming 956 was the top. Just an alternative.

    Wave iii of 3) also subdivides in 5 sub wavesmaller degree...we would currently be in this sub waves...
    928-904
    904-918
    ......??????
  • prescient11
    This is exactly why EW is fucking worthless. IMHO. What is that, 100 possibilities?
  • unless one uses TD D-wave (which has very strict rules with very few possible outcomes.)
    Beside - short term predictions (1-5 days) are difficult to make no matter what you use fundamental or technical nalysis
  • kinihepu
    I have to say, until I saw it done right, I held the same view. But after seeing several very good practitioners, I'm a true believer. I only hope to someday have those skills.

    I would add that the past 3-4 weeks, nothing worked, especially EW.
  • that what corrective ways are for - to correct everyone :)
  • prescient11
    I'm always willing to keep an open mind but it mostly seems like endless Monday morning quarterbacking and revisions.

    Nothing has been working except my intraday charts, and that's why I like to be in cash every night.
  • thelefteyeguy
    i think you have a valid observation...if tomorrow we dont bust 918 we could still be EW3 (or EW5)

    the channel from the high June 15th the high of today is still intact. Probably use Moles chart from the previous thread
  • Osso
    yes...we have a perfect descending channel.....thing is..we must not go over 918......i think....tks !!!!
  • thelefteyeguy
    the 15min chart shows the descending channel perfectly...could be still on EW5( or 3?) but also could be B.

    looking back on Alphahorn's charts, he makes a convincing case for his counts....we might get a confirmation tomorrow if 918 breaks which should make his case stronger.

    He's been on fire for a long time...I won't doubt him now.
  • thelefteyeguy
    ah...so you're on the camp that the top hasn't been reached yet ^^

    that's also a possibility, and I will file it away lol

    (going to take a look at Alphahorn's top indicators first lol)
  • incorrect
    W5 might be lower then W3
    I base my trading decisions based on presumption that 960 area WAS the top...unless proven wrong...now you may file away "correct version" :)
    And speaking of daily wave count we are about to start W3 down
  • chart would be sweet
  • Osso
    hehehehehe...!!!!!
  • lilme
    Noob question:

    The total put/call hit an extraordinarily elevated 1.41 this morning, the highest level since Dec. 15th.

    What does this imply? Merci
  • springheel_jack
    It often suggests that the next move in equities will be in the opposite direction, so in this case up. Far from an infallible guide, but sometimes a good contrarian indicator.
  • lilme
    Thanks, I am still sorting out the contrarian thing.
  • I've been meaning to compile some of mole's old forecasts (which is what first attracted me to ES) and put them side by side with the (ridiculously accurate) results -- thought it would be helpful for noobs as well as haters both now and in the future.

    Put it all together by creating a Complaint Desk for ES, an easy way to tell haters to STFU
    http://tinyurl.com/n3u9ct
  • Macrawn
    Mole's forecasts are definitely essential reading. Very accurate on the possible scenarios and even more importantly picking out what points act as confirmation for those scenarios. Hats off to the other contributers on this blog.
  • springheel_jack
    thelefteyeguy and I have had a crack at starting the comments off in the right direction.
  • ha ha, glad to see there are others who share my sentiments. thanks
  • Okay, I just added the page to the link widget. Should also drive a bit of traffic your way ;-)

    Thanks for putting this up - you're my favorite chicken. BTW, my neighbor is setting up a chicken pen - in a few weeks we'll be able to grab fresh eggs right next door....
  • WTF?!?! You say thanks by eating my children?? Guess who just earned themselves another complaint.
  • You are one crazy chicken - LOL :-)

    I actually wrote one long ass comment and then it got all screwed up as it was trying to force me open an livejournal account. Which is why I plugged disqus into this blog - so much more painless.

    Hey, did you include my 944 top call? Or last year when I projected the Dow to breach 10k? I think that was in June.
  • oh yeah, the 944 call is chart #3 and I made sure to point out that it was way off by several nickels. I remember seeing the Dow chart referenced somewhere but I think it predates ES -- can't find it in the archives
  • in the past I got so fed up with idiots who do not follow calls consistently and then lose their money due to lack of discipline/understanding - that I created google spreadsheet with date, price ranges, possible scenarios and actual numbers - in 2 weeks all idiots were gone. Was I happy? F.. no - I wasted my time to prove to degenerates who they are and I doubt their pee sized brains were able to understand the prove.
    Since then I just ignore their existence - as much as those who put their head instead of Moses'
  • That's what I do - a lot of idiots out there and I really don't want them here anyway. I think we have a good crew going.
  • Osso
    One of the best posts to keep saved.....just as reminder how people are constantly fooled by Gov't... and guys like this dont go to jail, or are trialed for treason.....

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/confidenc...
  • lilme
    Yes, sir, I cannot hear the word 'contained' two years later without getting sick....and I was in cash.
  • For all you SRS addicts, here is my very detailed analysis of SRS... And this time around how about we share some love

    http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/srs-outloo...
  • Peasant
    The Fed announced around 11 a.m. that it had bought $7 billion today in US treasuries with maturity dates from 2016 -2019. Shortly after, the dollar nosedived and the 10 year treasury yield went from 3.59 to 3.65% Was the announcement related to the reversal in the dollar and the bond markets? or just a coincidence?

    It seems everytime they announce these repurchases, it has the exact opposite effect that they are trying to achieve. Is it because they are printing money to purchase these?
  • Amazing that tape---I thought I had that thing nailed like a boneless chicken to a ouiji board...but NO....it tricked me no matter how many lines I drew on the chart.
  • Bricks
    On an $SPX daily chart - Here is a potential H&S playing out through mid August.
    http://screencast.com/t/L6G9LfJW47
  • C C Rider
    Golden cross on crude tomorrow. If nothing else, it's a technical buy point and jives with the recent dollar weakness. The "old leaders are going to drag the shorts up kicking and screaming.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=DAILY&...
  • Peasant
    The dollar took a healthy dump today but it didn't really help the commodity equities too much. That might be due to option expiration week as well.
  • springheel_jack
    Following on from Keirsten's post of $NYSI below. Here are four of my other fav longer term indicators:

    $NAAD: Nasdaq Advance Decline Issues EOD - This just broke important support.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

    $NYA50R: NYSE % of stocks above 50 day MA EOD - Looking down from major top.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

    $SPX50R: S&P % of stocks above 50 day MA EOD - Looking down from major top. Just broke 70 level overbought level.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

    $NYMO: NYSE McLellan Oscillator (Ratio Adjusted) EOD. Not made a major top as it topped in April bear trap. Looking sharply down indicating major bottom ahead though.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...
  • Keirsten
    Beautiful Jack! We're on the same page. ;-)
  • Osso
    no Summation Index for SPX...?????/ similar to NYSI....???
  • springheel_jack
    Can't find one for SPX. Nasdaq summation index is $NASI.
  • Osso
    guess we have to use the NYSI....
  • Keirsten
    Yes- and you can also chart NASI for the the Qs. Looks the same right here.
  • Osso
    i know $NASI...but ...you know the symbol for SPX/summation index..????/tks
  • springheel_jack
    Beat me to it.
  • springheel_jack
    Yes, looking good.
  • Every fucking ticker on my watch list was red even at end-of-the-day... Fucking QQQQs were up 1% - 1% ... Give me 5 tickers in Nasdaq 100 that were green...
  • BIDU, SBUX,INTU,BRCM,BBBY,CMCSA,NVDA,AMLN,HOLX,STX,ESRX,GILD,AMGN,ATVI,QCOM,VRTX,GENZ,CELG,APOL,sIrI
  • Kirklandguy
    not to mention stalwarts MSFT and INTC...
  • right - I am short MSFT via Oct 25 puts
  • LOL - thanks.. I guess I cherry-picked the "red" cherries in the bunch to put in my watchlist today :-)
  • My secret sinus headache formula :
    200 mg ibuprofen (reduced swelling and pain)
    2 Tylenol Cold and Sinus (reduces mucus and swelling)
    1 Chlorotrimaton (anti-histamine)
    A caffenated beverage. (caffeine is headache medicine . . )

    Cures my headache every time.
  • I get headaches all the time. Took me years to figure out this formula. It works for me every time.
  • All that shit is horrible for you and ibuprofen is extremely bad for you over the long term. Only in the United States are people popping ibuprofen like candy - in Europe we are a lot more discerning when it comes to taking drugs. The same applies to anti-histamines - unless you have very serious allergies stay away (I have to take them as I live in L.A. and get very bad allergy attacks).

    Guys - don't you ever wonder why 2 out of 3 Americans die from cancer? The food and drugs here are making you sick - don't believe the pharma and food industry - use your own brain and try to live healthy!

    Instead of pain killers start taking 'systemic enzymes' - it's amazing stuff and it actually removes scar tissue inside and outside your body. Read up on it - the truth is out there.
  • lilme
    Hey Mole, try an air filter with a HEPA filter and keep doors shut - cuts down on allergies big time, no drugs, of course, some times you have to go out of doors.

    And as for Europeans not taking drugs, I have a French friend...
  • If I could guarantee that those drugs would fix your headache, would you take em? If your allergies are running wild, then an anti-histimine makes sense. Tylenol is mild. 200mg is not a lot of ibuprofen. One of the reasons that it took so long to figure out how to cure my headaches was that I hate taking drugs too.

    For allergy/sinus headaches - it works . . . I'm glad I could share this.
  • ropey
    You get headaches when starting at the screen only or just in general? if its at the screen, not sure with LCDs but i had a monitor with the refresh was set below at 60Hz or below - i had the problem for years then i changed that the tv's that i use to a higher frequency (100Hz) and it all went away.
  • Iguanadon
    I wish I'd read this 2 years ago... almost identical for me...

    400mg ibuprofen
    2 Tylenol Cold and Sinus
    1 snort of nose spray (to kick start things)

    If it's REALLY bad and the pain is running down the back of your head and neck, get in the hottest shower you can handle with the water hitting the top of your head and back of your neck. It opens up the blood vessels.
  • Mole would add a stripper.. I am guessing Mole is too stressed to go see a stripper these days - haven't heard him mention for a long time now.
  • I can't have a stripper when I have headaches - LOL - too much excitement :-)
  • Osso
    hi there....dont you like selling July puts on SRS ahead of friday, playing on a bounce in DOW/SPX into friday.....and buying July calls on SRS...???? playing on a failed bounce of those Indexes coming down as from next week.....hence SRS starts rallying again..???
  • Why sell June puts - what if SRS tanks here - it can do that anytime.. In fact I see a bounce coming in IYR if the market moves up tomorrow. 2% up day in the market could mean 4% up in IYR --> 8% down in SRS..

    I am not into selling naked puts anyways... Who knows what the hell is PPT and Obama and Timmy boy upto... Not worth the risk/reward IMO.

    I however will go long SRS calls again after it is clear that market has retraced some portion of this impulsive move down.
  • I dont know mate - my analysis tells me we bounce here nicely.... all of a sudden too much pessimism everywhere... We might bounce as high as 938 or so AS Mole had indicated... MM would like that... they know that every one went bear-tard short here.... So, they would like to shake some weak hands off esp the ones that did not nail the top.. They shook weak ones that went short at 950+ by revisiting that area twice...

    I will do detailed chart analysis and put up a very lengthy post at my blog tonight.
  • Osso
    precisely.....mkt. moves up....you sold the puts.....with that money...you buy the calls ...when mkt. fails the move up....your calls run....
  • Earl of
    Really good tape today for trading the TNA/TZA pair. I started out with TNA and even though I got out late (bailing at RSI 70 was the right play) and didn't even play the TZA side (which set up nicely had I bailed out of TNA properly), I still had a decent day.

    Yesterday I was stinging from working way too hard to recover from bad (early) entries, and decided to paper trade. Picked TZA and had a just wonderful day, on paper. Somewhat ironic that my best day in some time was paper trading.
  • Less emotions.. Last july, I entered OTM sep/oct puts on POT, MOS, PCX, ANR, CLF etc etc etc.... 26k worth .... both in real account and paper account. In real account, I closed them all in 3 days for a nice profit of 10k.. Completely forgot about the paper account... Checked in late Nov -- holy crap - it had gone up to 800k - LOL

    I even printed that out - if I can find it... I will post a scan of it to show that what I am saying is indeed true.
  • Earl of
    MLMT, I believe ya, except that 800k part. Nah -- I believe ya. We humans tend to want to take profits at some point, unless its a trade we forgot about. I close out at days end, these days.

    Emotions do play into it, particularly when I get underwater. Wasn't much underwater yesterday -- clean, perfect day.
  • For me, I have learnt to be patient and that usually gives me good entries.. so I do go underwater.. but I have learnt to take losses..

    What I haven't learnt is to let winners run.. This is a game where we will be wrong more than half the time.. so it is imperative, that when we are right, we sit tight and let the winners run...

    These days I can understand that we want to close out end of day... we dont know what the hell might happen overnight.




    ________________________________
  • Earl of
    MLMT, I am a naturally patient person. My problem is that if I'm not careful, I will sit in cash amused by all the horrid and wonderful things happening to trades I didn't take.

    I need 10-15 buys to build a full position, so the first buy isn't critical and I usually just jump in so my brain can see that I'm not watching a movie.
  • springheel_jack
    With luck, we'll have an opportunity to do that for real in P3.
  • Man I'm having a majorly off couple of weeks. ES system has gone flat (though that is just me not taking trades), I feel dead tired and then all of a sudden today I started to get super cold for no reason...literally convulsing around 3 hours before the close. I couldn't trade anymore, so I went to bed and was STILL cold.

    Finally woke up and feel better but man something is really wonky with me these days.

    Anyway, we had a small change in the McCllean Oscillator which suggests a large move over the next day or two, and I suspect (as I've said previously) that it is going to be the upside. We are short term oversold which supports my thesis.

    I know it sounds crazy but we could go to new highs. We shall see I suppose.
  • Keirsten
    Feel better Amgrant, but first take a look at this:

    NYSI EOD:

    http://tinyurl.com/ntqwhb
  • Osso
    i add parabolic sar for buy/sell signals.....and 5 & 8 dma .
  • That is very bearish, but more longer term. I think we get one last ditch effort to the upside before plummeting into the abyss.
  • Whatever indicator you got there - it seems to be nailing tops and bottoms perfectly.. Quite amazing.. If we were to trade using that, we could be millionaires ... hmm may be I am missing something here... please enlighten.. Clearly the indicator shows all major tops and bottoms and that is all one needs to make the BIG money.
  • springheel_jack
    Yes, that is a very good indicator. Also like Nymo, which is indicating down, but not from a major top & $SPXA50R & $NYA50R both indicating down from major tops. I'll post latest in a few minutes.
  • Keirsten
    Bingo. I shared it with Bala and Mole about a month ago or so. Go ahead and stick SPX behind it and track the points you could have grabbed up and down. The entries are not necessarily perfecto, but they're "safe," generally. There were a few times back in Jan. I think where there wasn't a lot of meat to be had, but again... have some fun with it and see what you come up with.
  • shaw
    This is really good. Do you know if TOS Prophet charts have the $NYSI? I can't seem to find it.
  • Osso
    thing is...once it crosses...it trends...so the trade is more of a swing play....Dont know if with the current low volatility and whipsaws....if it trends as usually...
  • Keirsten
    Once it gets rolling and stays above or over that 5 MA you're pretty much golden. These latest moves look awfully reminiscent of the last high we had, don't they? Stop/start/stop/start.... and then bye bye time. Definitely a longer term trend trading tool.

    Check this out Osso:

    http://tinyurl.com/l4afj5
  • It sometimes leads and sometimes lags, thus be cautious taking trades with it:

    http://screencast.com/t/EXibS7SbDsu
  • springheel_jack
    Yes, I'll be posting something similar later. Some solid longer term indicators pointing down here. I think a new high is unlikely.
  • Keirsten
    I literally wait each day for that to be updated (I think it's the last one they post on Stock Charts) and get so giddy I could explode! LOL The weekly charts on just about anything under the sun have all turning down here too. I'm not so sure we get a 3 day down event when I look at those Jack. Guess we'll know when we get there?
  • buyemsellem2000
    I think your talking about the bullish %. A drop below the 20 day and bullish % dropping below 70, is definitely bearish. Many sectors did that today, but with it being op ex week I wouldn't be surprised to see a ramp up to the 10 day. If jobless claims are bad tomorrow that should do it. The bears should turn into grizzlys.
  • Squidman
    Thanks dear, every breath she takes, every move she makes....
  • springheel_jack
    Yes. I think this movement will last a few weeks at least. I hope it isn't P3 though. Nice to have that after another upswing.
  • Oh absolutely. I'm not talking about longer term here...longer term I am a die hard bear along with you guys. I'm talking about the next 2-4 days or so. You could be right about the new highs but a large move up is coming I think.
  • springheel_jack
    I'm leaning towards a significant move up here to finish opex week. Fujisan was suggesting big move down following on Monday & I think she might have it there. I think we'll be down on the week though.
  • Keirsten
    Roger that- now scoot to bed with you too!
  • I think the constant stress over the past few months can take a toll on a person. I'm not kidding - the mind and the body are connected and the cumulative impact of constant stress will hit you when you least expect it.
  • Spoken like a wise man. I'm pretty damn healthy so that's why I'm making such a big deal out of it. Stuff like this never happens to me. Can't remember the last time I even had a cold.
  • Squidman
    Hope you feel better man. I just think your not getting enough tequila after hours!
  • Moneymongrel
    And I think evil.rat/ES was only -1.25, instead of -4.5 as posted.
  • Maybe I screwed it up - have a headache...
  • mrclam
    Mole, sure its just a typo, but the loss on resident.evil/ES was 8.5 points no?
  • Sorry guys - can someone else do the math for today? I got a major headache - can't focus.
  • mrclam
    I came up with
    geronimo: -2.75
    evil.rat/NQ: -3.5
    resident.evil/NQ: -3.25

    evil.rat/ES: -1.5
    resident.evil/ES: -8.5
  • Woolly Llama
    do you have the cumulative running totals. i dont follow any of these but it seems like there have been quite a few negative days lately - wondering if there is a drawdown going on. very interested in how current results compare to the predicted ones! i'm not being negative either..i'm thinking about subscribing.
  • mrclam
    I don't. Personally, my account has been in a drawdown since the 2nd day of trading the system. This isn't mole's fault, there were times when I overtraded, didn't follow the signals(one day it changed directions 6 times, and I quit on the last time, which was the time it picked up a 10 point movement). By not taking all the signals, I did avoid some drawdown, but I'm not sure how it all works out in the end. You'd have to see if mole can post updated charts/graphs to see how you'd do.
  • I'm pretty sure about Geronimo being positive:

    b905.75 s909.75 = +4
    b909.5 s906.5 = -3

    Result: +1
  • mrclam
    oh that's right. i completely forgot about that morning trade.
  • Osso
    Eddie bauer files for BK.....and adds up to....Yes...green shoots.....but only for banksters....!!!!!
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