Quite Elementary My Dear Watson

Well, its’ quite elementary, my dear rats. The key in cracking this mystery lies in the Dollar:

Which is getting pounded into the sand again this morning. Unless this thing finds a bottom and snaps back equitity traders (most of them being bullish at the moment) have little incentive to start taking profits. And that in turn is the rub – the big bears are MIA and selling will only ensue once the bulltarts think it’s time to take profits.

So watch the ole’ buck – which might turn today, tomorrow – tough to say. I’d venture that it will happen ahead of 76.15 – if we breach that one we are all seriously fucked.

As I said – quite elementary ;-)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 4th, 2009 at 11:31 am and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • KidDisco
    Sigh...
  • oh-ho
    all counts just reset :(
    but I don't mind about slightly itsy-bitsy higher high
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • Bankrupt
    could we sell off now????
  • my personal opinion... wE'D BETTER SELL!!!!
  • rhae
    fwiw and maybe not much... My daily SPY forced Pitchfork tagged the median line and 1,27 fib extention near todays hod 100.80... those are just lines and nothing says it's can't go higher.
    But I like to keep a sharp look out around certain lines, phantom lines or not

    demark PP rez. 101.05 could it fizzle out before it gets there?
  • To put it another way... If you are a Canadian and you put your Canadian Dollars to work in the S&P 500 March 6, 2009 you would be up a whopping 7% after currency translation. Quite a rally we are having.....

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/folders/Jing/media/9d0ce25a-69d6-46b8-9592-ae7d49f46890
  • /NQ short parked 2875 stop +3.25

    damn had to raise the stop!
  • Gotta be out for a couple of hours... you guys keep this thing propped up until I get back please
  • disrespekt
    RSI on the dailies now above 76, on IYR above 74...

    Nothing is showing any signs of respecting any sort of technical indicator, stochs imbedded for half a month, volume still declining
  • market can stay overbought or oversold indefinitely - any momentum indicator cannot be used stand alone
  • just like oct 2008 - technical indicators were ignored.
  • disrespekt
    the market rallied pretty furiously off of those breaches of 30, the stochs didn't embed like this and the volume was confirming...

    I guess we were more overbought on the weeklies back in 07 prior to the onset of the crash
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Short RIMM at 79.90
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Seems that RiMM is the only one up compared to the other 4 horse man....
  • Google now green and AMZN coming back as well.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    This is a fake out...The last people to the party...Next big move will be down.Need to be patient
  • Guest
  • fuzzygreysocks
    Now that they've stockpiled actually useful comodities like copper (instead of lunacy, AKA gold) they can ditch the $USd, force up commodities for RoW, and chuckle while everyone else redistributes wealth to Brazil & Australia at their own expense.

    I'm beginning to wonder if this is what Geithner talked to them about during his last visit.
    It would stabilize the global economy.
  • disrespekt
    The problem with this scenario lies within how China has dealt with its massive surpluses - it has sterilized its reserves by soaking up dollars in its domestic economy and printing yuan in order to maintain its currency peg. The pace of China's industrialization would not have been possible without the US taking the debts necessary to fund it along with China's stubborn export ponzi model, where in the latter stages some 40% of GDP was FDI.

    The entire world is going to discover that there simply isn't enough demand out there absent western ponzi FIRE economies and exponential debt growth. The demand that fueled China's growth was artificial.

    If China tries this, this will all end badly, probably in war. There is no easy exit from the USD trap. The Gulf States are sitting on more reserves than China, and Japan has a ton of them too. China's not going to be chuckling, nobody is.
  • Douala
    This smells of topping! [Scratch & Sniff... below]
    The fearsome 4 somesome
    APPL [down -1.08]
    AMZN [down -0.86]
    GOOG [down -0.51]
    RIMM [up +3.0]

    Plus....
    UUP [down -0.01]
    GS [up + 0.53]
    VIX [ down -0.40]
  • ckeltner
    It works well with sector rotation. Those that led up go down first while those that lag up (financials) rally last/top last.
  • I am out of MA puts, the price actions looks like consolidation to me and it's going even higher. Jeeezzz nothing wants to go down in this tape. :) except the USD.
  • Perhaps the $ will continue to slide down to 76, just in time to hit SPX 1050 - 1060, then we get a rally in the $ and a drop on SPX (I really hesitate to say "tank") due to upcoming 10/ 30 yr auctions next week. That's my guess for the upcoming week we'll see how it plays out.

    In the meantime I'm scalping VWAP/ crossovers on /NQ, /ES and long commods (/ZC etc..)

    Manage to be just barely in the green on equities... Mainly because of puts burning theta but my long hedges have been saving me. Nice gains in LDK, LVS..
  • LegendC
    I haven't seen a buy signal on SPY since last thursday, each sell signal has only been good for a quick scalp.
  • fa_q
    I do believe we are seeing a blowoff top in IYR. Loaded up the shorts at 37.50 and 37.60.
  • KidDisco
    Is there some news for IYR?
  • fa_q
    Couple companies reported and sent in a massive short squeeze. SPG wasn't that great. Fine with me, I'm adding on the way up.
  • fa_q
    I've got a full position averaged at 37.95
  • Guest
    TF is going ballistic. Bulls are crazy. It's like 2007 all over again.
  • KidDisco
    That move was ridiculous.
    Its right at some key resistance going back to December and Novemeber.
  • thunda72
    Breaking news on Bloomberg. Cong. Schulmer and Co. and saying the ban on flash trading is imminent.
  • ACJ
    Market should rally on this news!
  • Bankrupt
    that was good for 2 points on es
  • thunda72
    Yeah... this will affect GS more than anyone...
  • Mr. Burns
    Any knife-catchers left? Here comes a terrifying entry. I have my stops and jock-strap on.
  • milingz
    SLV at 14.43 and Silver futures are 14.651. Is it time to short silver?
  • C's & 3's
    EWI thinks so
  • RagnarDanneskjöld
    Depends on time frame, short term (hours to days), it looks a little toppy but with the dollar in a swan dive I would be cautious. Longer term (weeks-months), absolutely not. In my opinion $20 is in the works...
    ~
    - Don't jump in front of a moving train
    - Trade the market you have not the one you want
  • Keirsten
    100.86 is resistance on SPY here- just a FYI.

    Fellow RIMM traders- I took off half my puts this morning and hedged long on the jump. Will watch for it to backtest the broken TL today. If it breaks through I'll most likely cut the rest of my puts loose and re-evaluate. Still profitable on FSLR puts today (this one really does have a beautiful, legit island top pattern in progress,) and trading HGSI and CENX.

    Ropey- I see no compelling price action to get short on GS here either... so far. But watching. G/L

    Busy for the next several days with another trader so will pop in when time allows, and I hope you all do well today! :-)
  • zenith191
    Glad you changed your avatar back Keirsten.
  • Keirsten
    Thanks my fellow feline. :-) She was a little too tart-ish for me too, not to mention that red was making my eyes cross. :-)
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Why is Rimm up so much?
  • Keirsten
    Beats me Big, estimate did get a small bump, but other than that.... just watching to see the action at that TL now...
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    The other horse man are down or up very little. mmmmmmmmm
  • Keirsten
    Fund money still rolling in today- that's the best I can think of, and they all want to own RIMM methinks. Looks good in those portfolios.
  • ropey
    Yep that's fine, GS was a quick trade, just spotted some relative weakness yesterday so took advantage for a buck or so but no position right now.
  • Keirsten
    I need to see it break the LOD, and it didn't happen, so just working on the daily and weekly chart to set some entry targets for the days ahead. If it gets through 166.42 this afternoon, then will not get short- next target above @ 172
  • and 1007.5 is the last swing high on spx from 11/4/08. 1015 is roughly the 50% fan from 2007 high.
    plus china is in consolidation. market needs extra energy to push higher. unemployment on friday maybe a very good one.
  • Heeyyyye Special K! I am loving FX. 6 out of 6 winners so far. :)))

    I am long USO and XOM calls on both. Everytime we dip even a little buyers rush in.
  • Keirsten
    Anna- be sure to check out DXO and UCO when you get a minute.
  • Ok will do! Wow DXO was @ 2.00 first of year. that would have been a sweet trade, are you long either one?
  • Keirsten
    Just as a swing trading vehicle, nothing more. I think you'd like them better than the way USO moves, but keep an eye on how they move in comparison.
  • thanks will do! :)
  • Keirsten
    Good job! I still have my training wheels on w/FX right now.
    Be careful on your USO w/inventory in the AM. ( I already know you will) Protect your profits. :-)
  • Will do and thanks sistah! FX is da bomb. :) if the USD keeps dropping as I suspect it will USO will climb higher.
  • wex
    Meant to tell you about Currency Trader Mag. which is a free e-magazine. If you aren't aware of it, worth a look. www.currencytradermag.com
  • Thank you Wex you are a scholar and a gentleman! :-) I will check it out
  • Me_XMan
    SPX making high 1004.63
  • That's what I been saying Mole-ster! I am long EUR/USD and had 6 winning trades out of 6 on FX, much easier maket to trade these days!
    thanks for the charts. :) You still in FX?

    Long USO Sept 38 calls and XOM 70 Calls
  • trabuco
    Careful Anna, euro at support...
  • thanks sweetie, I keep buying under 144.00 and selling when I get 15 or 20 pips. :) Did you mean EUR @ resistance right?
  • Hao Q.
    nice trades, you are getting better and better in FX LOL

    i went long eur/usd yesterday too, gonna keep them for weeks.
  • Thank you Hao! I appreciate that. It is so much simpler to trade FX!! I wish i had known sooner.
    LOL
    G/L to us both :-)
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