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A Few Charts For The Road
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A Few Charts For The Road

by The MoleMay 27, 2016

We’ve got a bit of a double whammy going on today in that it’s the last session before the long weekend plus Yellen is scheduled to speak late in the day. So it’s probably fair to say that few of us are going to be doing much on the trading front and I wouldn’t be surprised if most of you are already on the way out. Best to call it a week – quite frankly I could use a few days off myself as I have been working hard behind the scenes over the past few few weeks. However it’s become a long standing tradition here at the evil lair to send you guys off with a few charts of interest and I would hate to disappoint. In no particular order:

2016-05-27_spoos

Equities are of course in everyone’s mind as the pre-holiday/Yellen spike higher now left the bears in a pretty tenuous position. The short term panel is looking as bullish as they come but I don’t think we’re going to see much movement here ahead of 5:15pm – thus the session is pretty much a tosser. Two considerations I’d like to offer however:

  • If Yellen maintains her general stance of ambivalence then it’s quite possible we’ll see a EOD spike higher leaving any remaining bears (are there any?) in the lurch over the long weekend (especially if you’re holding puts for the next three days losing theta).
  • Now should she verbally slip or even suggest a future hike (which would probably not happen anyway but alas) then it’s possible that we’ll see an equities dump lower. I still believe that all that support on the daily would hold until next Tuesday.
  • You can hedge yourself with some puts today but be sure to dump them after the announcement as you don’t want to lose all that time value for nothing. Alternatively employ a long debit spread with the short end below 2030 plus minus.

2016-05-27_ZM

Soybean Meal has been one on a rampage and I am waiting for a little retest of the recent highs before I grab a few short positions. The daily panel look scary as hell – agreed – but it is the weekly that suggests a shake out is near (posted on Wednesday).

2016-05-27_wheat_LT

Wheat caught my attention today as it’s painting a pretty compelling floor pattern. I think there is much fun to be had here over the coming weeks and months. Just put it on your watch list for now and I’ll be sure to revisit this one when the time is right.

A few more travel snacks below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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2016-05-27_memorial_day

Alright, that’ll be it for the next few days. Please be safe wherever you’re heading and don’t forget to spend a few minutes remembering those who continue to risk and sometimes give their lives to protect us and our country. Although I am living abroad now I am always proud to call myself an American as I continue to believe in the ideals that our founding fathers risked everything for. Unlike over here in Europe immigrants such as myself are often among the most staunchest supporters of the American idea and our way of life. Because for us it was an active choice whereas you natives were born into it. Although it it took a lot of effort and expense I do believe that I got the better end of the deal 

On that note – in case you missed it and have some time to burn: I strongly recommend you catch up with ‘Turn” – which is a TV series based on Washington’s spies. It’s absolutely brilliant and gives you a lot more appreciation for the unsung heroes of that period preceding the founding of our nation. Without them you’d most likely be eating Marmite and spotted dick right now – or even worse haggis. Plus dental care would be virtually unknown. So if you enjoy BBQ, Red Bull, cheap beer, drag-racing, American football, MMA/UFC, or sky-diving Elvises, then consider yourself lucky that you were born in the best damn country on earth. And thus you may consider giving a special toast this weekend to Abraham Woodhull, Samuel Townsend, Anna Strong, Caleb Brewster, and all the ones that have long been forgotten.

Happy Memorial Day everyone.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Billabong

    Great post Mole! Have a nice weekend … I’ll be around for the afternoon fireworks. :-)

  • CitizenX

    Thanks for the Turn recommendation Mole. I don’t watch regular TV any more but do enjoy these historically based shows.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Thank You, Mole. Today is interesting, I am not laughing out loud with gusto, but had to grab a couple of tissues very quickly when I got to the finish. God Bless You.

    I was born here, and I thank God every day for my beginning and my continuing.
    God Bless America and our freedom. Especially, my freedom as a woman.

  • ridingwaves

    A great video, gotta love Gary Sinise..To all those whom have fallen to protect us-Thanks from my family….Heroes among us….
    https://www.youtube.com/embed/l3P15s4zWNQ

  • Time Bandit

    Excellent Post Mole!

    I’ve watched “Turn” since the first episode and I second the recommendation. It’s a very good series on the AMC channel and Netflix.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My father passed over the Holidays.
    Korean Veteran.

    RIP Dad.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgAQGdanQHo

  • Time Bandit

    Sorry to hear of your loss GG.

    The Korean War was “The Forgotten War” but no less horrible.

  • Yoda

    Sincere condolences Gerb. Wish you strength to go over this tough period.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stabbing at TVIX…staying puckered….very tight stops.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    okay, I’m outta here.
    one last chart – weekly
    VIX.

    no worries, the Market will crash at any moment,
    the VIX will prevail.

    😯

  • Mark Shinnick

    I just wonder if any stampede is really in the offing in this warped/manipulated non-free market. Bert always make excellent points:

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000518809&play=1

  • Tomcat

    RIP

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    nice analysis. I’m of the camp that even if rates pop up, will just be a speed bump on the way up. If it was such as major issue we wouldn’t see such strength with people saying odds around 40-50% of rate increase this summer.

  • Billabong

    Looks like a do nothing event.

  • Round we go

    Dollar to the moon. Everything else to the gutter.

  • Billabong

    DX HOD

  • Mark Shinnick

    Scalped a little bit there, out for time being.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Memorial Day (Lest we forget … as the slogan goes in OZ) – Everyone remembers those family members who perished or whose lives were dramatically changed … under dramatic circumstances / war / accidents etc.

    I wonder how many recall the name of the person who signed the order for a person to be volunteered / conscripted to join an army … or who signed the document committing a country … err … the population of that country … to a war or to fight in a war … whether on their own shores … or in a ‘foreign’ country.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One can never be sure but I think betting against bonds is probably not a good idea over the long term. It’s counter intuitive but that how the cookie crumbles 😉

  • Time Bandit

    Not sure if I know what you mean. But if you mean remembering the people who first came up with the “Domino Theory” in the 50’s followed by the politicians including LBJ and Robert MacNamara, Tricky Dicky and Henry Kissinger, George W Bush and Cheney and all the Warhawks most of whom never served a lick of military service, then yes, I remember them.

    And I remember my generations war that lost 58,000 Soldiers in Vietnam and I remember that we’ll never ever learn a fucking thing about entering wars that we can’t or won’t have the stamina to do what’s necessary to win.

    And now we have these stats as of June 2014 that do not include the last year and a half of the current generations war: 4,486 U.S. soldiers died in Iraq and 2,345 U.S. soldiers died in Afghanistan, 1 million U.S. soldiers wounded in both wars, and a potential cost of up to $6 trillion.

    I’m proud to have served 4 years and that my son served 10 years. We were both lucky that we didn’t become statistics. Lastly, when ever I hear one of these war hawks wrapping themselves in the flag wanting go to war at a drop of a hat, I just want to kick these assholes right in the balls. So yes I remember the people that you spoke of.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry to hear that – my sincerest condolences. Glad he made it out of the war though and I trust he enjoyed a happy retirement.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In terms of results it was one of the more successful campaigns of the past fifty years.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Always enjoy sending you guys off with a good post. Glad you liked it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you Sharon – your sentiment is appreciated. Enjoy your long weekend!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Fireworks are the one of the few things I never cared about (that and jazz), no idea why. Hope you’re having a smashing time off, enjoy.

  • Yoda

    Well, after hearing Yellen’s speech and seeing the market reaction to it, I am none the wiser.
    I guess that the absence of traders on a Friday PM before Memorial Week-End influences the tape too.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Anyone who’s quick at the trigger to start a war most likely has never been in one. It’s ugly, it’s costly, and there is never really is a winner – only a lesser loser. However – every other generation or so there comes the moment when it is simply unavoidable. All that liberty comes at a price in the end. Unfortunately it is a lesson today’s generation seems to have forgotten. Perhaps if they brought back the draft? I think it would be very positive as it builds character and humility.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did you expect any less?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Time Bandit

    I have a friend who I served with 50 Years ago who lives about a 1,000 miles from me. We still get together every few years and talk over old times. The responsibilties we had as 20 year olds were enormous.

    And at least back when we had the draft and when people got orders to Vietnam it was one tour and done unless you volunteered for a second tour. But now with an all volunteer military, some of these guys have had 2, 3 and even 4 deployments to Iraq and or Afganistan. This can’t be good.

  • Yoda

    In hindsight no.

  • Yoda

    This explains the exponential rise in PTSD among vets in the last decade

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t think there really has been a ‘rise’. It’s just back then people didn’t talk about this shit. Called it shell shocked and then ‘battle fatigue’. A lot of people came back broken but there also were many who turned the corner, started a family, built a house, moved on. You can never know how war affects you – you think you’re a tough bastard but when the going gets tough the chaff quickly separate from the wheat.

    Although I have full sympathy for people who suffer from PTSD or whatever they call it these days we should not lose sight of the fact that there are true warriors out there who make it their mission to take out bad guys and are proud of it. Masculinity these days seems to have become a curse word, especially over here in Europe, and I’m really saddened by that. To be a solider and to defend and fight for your country, your city, your family used to mean something and back in ancient Rome it was a path toward citizenship and recognition for anyone. That type of vertical mobility did not exit before and rarely has ever since.

    Although mercenaries, bad boys, and criminals, are being worshipped these days very little attention is being given to faceless few who continue to serve our country without asking much in return. People who put their asses on the line in the field in far-flung places under the most extreme conditions. And they come back from their tours, crack open a cold one, and don’t even mention it to anyone. You’d never know – maybe it’s that guy next to you filling up his beat up truck at the gas station. Some unimposing guy you’d never expect to be a fucking seal. Those type of guys should command our deepest respect. Not those monkeys we see on TV and in the movies.

  • evilasevildoes

    Sorry to hear as well..My father a WW2 and volunteer Korean War vet also passed on April 6th,,,,Not an hour goes by that I don’t miss a Wonderful Man,,,I am sending you my sincerest condolences and can only say that we were lucky to have them in our lives. ,My father wanted to buried at the Veterans cemetery..so far his wife has not fullfilled his simple last wish. ..

  • evilasevildoes

    Thank You for this Sharon…..Wish my father had made it there to see.

  • mugabe

    Bulls fell to 17.8, the lowest since 2005 (and thus below where it was
    in March ’09) from 19.3 last week. Bears though also fell to 29.4 from
    34.1 as it was the Neutral side that saw the jump. It rose to
    52.9 from 46.6. That is the most extreme print of people basically
    saying “I don’t know” since 1990. Yes, a 26 yr high.

    http://abnormalreturns.com/2016/05/29/top-clicks-this-week-on-abnormal-returns-337/

    I imagine for most people here, ‘I don’t know’ would be the default setting.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Looks like weekend (especially long weekend) Black Swans are back on the radar … some hear the warning … few believe … and even fewer act.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    The stage is now set for a Tuesday BS event also in USA stocks … now

  • TerpFan

    Ivan,

    I don’t see anything (unusual) happening in the Overseas markets today.
    What specifically are you referring to?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How is everyone enjoying the long weekend?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ugh, cleaning house – have to impress the incoming Holiday visitors.

    if it flies, floats, or …never-mind.

  • Yoda

    Grand uncle Astor the Third from across the pond visiting?
    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/70/e6/1b/70e61bedcacde7d823d82d6ad0973764.jpg
    😉

  • mugabe

    get that house in order! lol

  • mugabe

    hear hear

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – “The stage is now set for a Tuesday BS event” … means just that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ladywandering

    Is there a chart to help us figure out what you are saying?

  • Ronebadger

    OHHHH…the suspense….

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Daily chart of the DJIA … also have a look at Gold … a bit of a shock for longs on Monday.
    EDIT: The trend’ette up has been broken on the current / last bar … the previous bar was a sell setup according to my toolkit.

  • ZigZag

    Barbara Tuchman’s “March of Folly” (hmm, couldn’t underline the title) is an interesting book on how things never change.

  • captainboom

    For some of us veterans, God has nothing to do with it, except perhaps belief in the ‘wrong’ god that *causes* wars. I appreciate your appreciation, but there are plenty of atheists in foxholes, who are still willing to do what needs to be done. 8 years active duty on my part.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How long does it take to clean out a hamster cage?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s such an ass – always leaves the toilet seat up.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    My Dad passed in 2003, while he was living with me. We had some fun times together from 1999 to 2003. It was wonderful to have that precious time with him as an adult. And, to be able to make sure that he had everything that he wanted. And, then he also wanted to be buried in the Veterans Cemetery in Grand Prairie Texas. Our family held his memorial service there as well. We bought several balloons for the service and one said ” Congratulations, Well Done ” We turned the balloons loose into the sky when we completed his memorial service. I let my 2 grandchildren turn them loose. It was a very powerful day for me and my 2 siblings and my 2 children and 2 grandchildren. I honor all service men for their service to our country.