A Few More For The Road

Equities are holding steady as she goes in the last low volume pre-holiday trading session. The Zero has been flat as a flounder since Monday afternoon, thus suggesting very limited participation – and clearly there has been little resistance on the way up. I suggested last weekend that the current spot near the NLBL matters but I also suspected that we wouldn’t see true resolution until after the long holiday weekend.

It’s quite possible the VIX may register a third close outside the 2.o Bollinger today. Usually that would be bullish sign but I can’t give it too much weight just yet – let’s see what happens Monday or Tuesday when everyone who matters is back at the desk. In any case – if we close outside yet again then our VIX sell signal count resets back to 1.

Now despite the holiday churn the picture is actually rather clear right now as we have the benefit of inflection points across various charts and time intervals. Let’s start with the E-Mini profile which yet again shows us at right smack middle ‘thee ole’ volume hole’. Overcoming this once and for all will require a bit more energy than just one or two low volume candle paintings.

The Net-Lines and BB chart indicates that the 25-hour is still in the running. Looking positive right now but this may be retested early next week. Now I have drawn a green line at 1400 which pretty much exactly is where we are seeing a concentration of prior touches over the past few months. If we overcome the volume hole and push higher from here then 1400 would be the final bastion of resistance which, once overcome, would lead the way into a Santa rally.

Here’s a little zoomed in view showing the E-Mini seemingly having little problem overcoming the daily NLBL. Again we may see a retest next week as this one won’t expire until Monday. But it’s looking positive thus far.

Now let’s zoom all the way out – the final perspective I would like to share is the weekly chart, which elicits a much more significant hurdle at the 25-week SMA. We are right below it and this adds another layer of importance to what happens here at the volume hole and the daily NLBL.

Botom Line: After a predictable push off the lows equities are now facing overlapping resistance across various time frames, except for the monthly panel. What happens here and of course at the psychologically sensitive 1400 mark will be the gateway to what happens in the final weeks of this year. If the bulls fail this test then the much coveted annual Santa rally may turn into a write off. For the bears this is the last opportunity to take back the reigns but thus far I have not seen much selling interest.

Public Service Announcement: I am planning on finally taking a few days off, hence this will be my last post until my Monday morning briefing. Obviously Thanksgiving is not being observed over here in Spain but we’ll somehow try to dig up some pumpkin pie. Believe it or not  - much to my chagrin the all but ubiquitous turkey meat as we know it in the States is but impossible to find here on the Iberian peninsula. But rest assured that I’ll be enjoying my days off all the same – I’ll just have to do with tapas and a bottle of Rioja. Perhaps I’ll mix in a few spices and some cinnamon ;-)

Which only leaves me to wish you a most relaxing and pleasant Thanksgiving holiday! I hope to welcome you all back safe and sound (and probably a few pounds heavier) next week!

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 21st, 2012 at 1:25 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • BobbyLow

    Enjoy your time off Mole and we’ll catch up to you on Monday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks Bobby – same to you!

  • Pug

    Mole, your analysis is superior, consistent, and generous. Learning much, banking coin. Thanks for all you do and have a Happy Thanksgiving. 

  • ronebadger

    I got your pumpkin pie right here…

    http://www.simplyrecipes.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pumpkin-pie-520-a.jpg

    Happy Thanksgiving Y’all!

     

  • ridingwaves

    feliz Día de Gracias Mole…thanks for sharing your knowledge…

    Here’s wishing everyone here and happy, hearty Thanksgiving..
    Oh Great Spirit, whose voice I hear in the winds And whose breath gives life to everyone,Hear me.I come to you as one of your many children; I am weak… I am small…I need your wisdom and your strength.Let me walk in beauty, and make my eyes ever behold the red and purple sunsets. Make my hands respect the things you have made,and make my ears sharp so I may hear your voice. Make me wise, so that I may understand what you have taught my people and The lessons you have hidden in each leaf and each rock.I ask for wisdom and strength, Not to be superior to my brothers, but to be able to fight my greatest enemy, myself. Make me ever ready to come before you with clean hands and a straight eye, So as life fades away as a fading sunset, My spirit may come to you without shame.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    same here.
    Here’s to all the men who crossed the Atlantic to conquer (ahem) virgin territory & bank coin. ;-)

    http://news.priceperhead.com/wp-content/gallery/thanksgiving-gallery/sexy-thanksgiving-girls-36.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks Mole. See you on Monday.

  • ronebadger

    talk about a HEADdress…..

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeez… with all those x-signals on the 5 min a short audjpy is mightily tempting.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yum. Can I have some Cranberry sauce with that?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Mercadona sell Turkey legs and fillets! And a good butcher can always get a turkey..if you are desperate!

  • grednfer

    Ya know there is this latent volume effect I’m seeing lately….on ES
    Its like the transactions occur on one day, then the move occurs on the next day.
    I saw “block volume” at 1460, 1430 but a day before the fall
    Then last Thurs…massive block volume….at 1345-50. But the move didn’t start until Friday morning.

    Seeing it again today….between 1384-88..and its usually is in like a 4 point range.

    I’d like to say “place your bets” but it seems they know where they’re going.

    It would be nice to see the inbound orders…..to see if they are buying or selling.

    There’s always a ambush on a holiday.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    VWAP held, new high comimg up:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    woohoo!

    check out INTC minutely, stuck in a 2 cent spread for hours.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, that was kind of weird….

  • Curiousmind3861

    VIX is actually inside BB, will it stay there to trigger step 2?? 

  • Joe_Jones

    I’m trying my luck, just in case we see some action EOD or after-hours

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    sold some longs on this high 750 TICK.

    calling it a day.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Very interesting.
    Do you see the size of these orders, and can estimate the amount of contracts involved?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Thanks mole
    enjoy well deserved time for yourself

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think a trading hiatus around T-day and a shortened Friday session has probably led some to purchase insurance.

  • ronebadger

    ES just knock, knock, knockin’ on that 1389.00 roadblock…amazing

  • Skynard

    Hehe, there she goes. Stops run again.

  • dma0

    Mole, here:
    http://www.aviagenturkeys.com/gb/distributors.aspx

    a stick throw away from Valencia :)

    Have a good Thanksgiving everyone.

  • grednfer

    Here you go…this is big and compressed volume for ES.
    Each tic shows the actual number of contracts.

  • AmazingLarry

    Right back’atcha, Moleo. Next week is gonna be $.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Thanks, but I’m not sure what to make of this picture.
    What you see confirms my observation of ES open interest. It has been my theory that OI is high when there are a lot of shorts in the market. It jumped by over 100k contracts between October 16-19, dipped  on Nov 1, than increased again. Open interest still runs at over 3 mil cars, so I guess shorts are still in. Whether these are smart money or bagholders – that I don’t know. Bottoms are usually made when ES rallies and  OI drops by 100k+ over 2 days. That still didn’t happen
    Hey, Bullish PO 1482SPX

  • Joe_Jones

    when I look at audjy, I’m drooling

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    connect the tops, she’s going to 87 or 89.
    patience.
    btw, don’t you have a turkey to pluck?

  • Joe_Jones

    Wow that would be something. 

    No, I’m not into the turkey slaughtering tradition. I’d rather watch the tape while  the rest of America is fast asleep. 

  • AMCabrera

    I got back my kel tec p3at today. So I plan to shoot it tomorrow and I plan to use the SAIGA-12 on the /jpy pairs. IOW I plan to pull the trigger on aud/jpy myself.

  • Joe_Jones

    Lovely! Wouldn’t expect any less from you ;-)

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxslOcJ9M3s
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31758#comment-698592605
    Ill try to make a youtube video shooting it. but here is this redneck for now. I hate that I could not take advantage of this massive run up. But whatever maybe third time is a charm Ive only tried twice second one being just yesterday it comes up to 85.90 boom boom and I also have one lurking at 131.50 and 132 for gbp/jpy.

  • AMCabrera

    this feels like new years eve instead 85.65 count down to 86.00 or 85.90.

  • grednfer

    I’ve never been able to correlate volume with price movement.
    More just price and time.

    So are you long or short?

  • Joe_Jones

    Planning to set-up a mince meat processing I see ;-)

  • fast and steady

    Zero fx not working?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    confirmed.
    AUD/JPY fibfan run (line to line)

    http://s9.postimage.org/3vjza0ijx/temp3.png

  • fast and steady

    Zero withdrawal symptoms kicking in. :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JJ,
    my sincerest apologies for my wild ass guess on the Q’s.
    they really aren’t my forte. ;-)
    http://s16.postimage.org/itw5793c5/temp_Q2.png
    -Gerb

  • fast and steady

    Has Mole disconnected the Zero for the holidays?
    What about us poor degenerate f/x gamblers who don’t celebrate thanksgiving? :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m just a moderator, not an admin.
    However, my experience over the years would guess.

    a) Something was hosed for Holiday maintenance
    b) The datafeed went nuts due to the Holiday

    in either case, chaulk it up to a case of Murphy’s Law, and make the best of it.
    -Gerb

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    In 1940, the day before Thanksgiving, Jesse Livermore breathed his last.

    Documentary of 1929
    http://video.pbs.org/video/1308436568/

  • fast and steady

     Or maybe Mole has been abducted. :)
    http://www.stopabductions.com/

  • fast and steady

     His death kind of reminds me of this guy: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/17/13921601-7-million-in-gold-found-in-dead-nevada-mans-home?lite

    Very sad. There is a pretty good chance I will end up like one of them one day.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     A little know fact about Mr. Livermore is that he was married to a woman whose previous FOUR husbands had also committed suicide…  Very strange.

  • Ivan

    Howdy there … for anyone out there!

    Measuring the actual return on your trading efforts, with emphasis on ‘efforts’.

    By now, more of you may have made the quantum leap away from being purely money-driven when it comes to trading.  Part of this process is to measure all your returns as a R factor.  R is a constant that specifies the percentage of your account that you place on the line with each and every trade.  The mantra generally used is ‘never risk more than 2% of your account’.  The justification used is that you can, mathematically, endure 10 full ISL stopouts in a row and still have about 80% of your capital in tact.  And more importantly not bounce to searching for the next magic indicator, trading robot, blog or guru, again!

    From my perspective, the actual percentage of your account that R is locked into needs to be based not on mantras or generalisations.  It needs to be based on the diligent, non-fudged, back application of the ruleset that you want to use.  A ruleset, as opposed to guidelines, is far more than buy when the red line crossed the green line type approach.  A ruleset encompasses position sizing, correlation factors, add-on rules, profit-take rules and various stop loss applications.  In other words totally black and white so that a 10 year old could follow the rules.

    Your back application will show you what drawdown can, on probabilities, be expected, as well as maximum series of losing trades in a row (amongst many other stats). This is just the starting point. In reality, all that the back application has done is examine a subset of the data of the market.  For just one slice of time/space.  As has often been observed, history rhymes as opposed to repeats (exactly).  This means that what you will experience applying the ruleset, either to out of sample data, or in real trading, will not be exactly the same as your back application.

    Your results going forward and how they will mirror, or otherwise, your back application will depend on how robust your ruleset is, and how real your back application technique was. After all, GIGO is valid in all things.

    The absolute percentage of your account that you end up choosing will partly reflect your ability to withstand a drawdown and the picture painted by your laborious back application of the finalised rules. Given the fact that the FX market is totally scaleable, the size of your trading account should not be a part of the equation in choosing the value of R.

    One very different metric for measuring results is R per hour at the screen, or R per rollover that you attend, or even R per time you adjust your orders!  This reflects the quantifiable part of trading ‘efforts’. The actual mechanics of placing the order/s.

    Food for thought as many conform to societal norms, yet seek an outcome that is greatly at variance from the more common one!

  • Jose Lemma

    Those evil short sellers are intent on destroying the yen! You bastards!

  • AMCabrera

    well look what we have here johnny…(aud/jpy snared in 85.90) GO get the knife.

  • AMCabrera

     not strange. funny..A man of chance marrying a woman like that!!

  • Jose Lemma

     Are you short, dude? I’m too scared to get in front of this pair. I am only taking small long trades for a few pips at a time.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c9c80845-77ad-478c-91c1-91770475ab2d/2012-11-22_0422.png
    last night before bed I canceled my gbp/jpy short orders because I see already it might have to get double green. And behold on top

  • AMCabrera

    IMO it was very dangerous to get in front two weeks ago. But now there is nothing to go for like there was before. Topside is clean, bottom side chop full of “dip buyers”.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/59a7ffdc-2957-4b8b-81bb-c01bdbffea18/2012-11-22_0431.png
    Men of this beloved blog. Do not think Im some sort of pyscho path for entering shorts heavily here, besides I only plan to keep it until 84.00-85.00 WHICH would technically continue sucker move to the upside.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Yeah he was wrong about the odds on that one lol.  Great trade on the AUD/JPY so far you may have trapped them.

  • AMCabrera

    meh its ok so far. I do not want to enter a pincer movement so Ill keep very wary and will exit at 86.00 with no problem.

  • AMCabrera

    im trying to decide is this may be it for today.

  • dma0

    Hi Ivan… what you say totally resonates with what I feel, even if I’m in learning mode and not in practice there…
    I also sense that you are not adopting a fully automated trading, which could be possible if a 10 year old should be able to apply the rule set. Te fully automated, with nurturing, of course, would greatly reduce the time spent on each trade. Would you agree? Or do you see downsides in this?

  • dma0

    I didn’t know that… very very interesting. Has Livermore tapped into the “forbidden” spring and that could have been his retribution? It is a question that is still secretly, even from myself, working me up. Is Trading okay? I feel so attracted to it…

  • Joe_Jones

    hehehe! Another hooked rat ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Hehehe, well guessed DG. Now, tell me where this is heading next and I’ll ship you an organic carrot. ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Ha!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Great Short! I shorted yesterday (knowing that I would be out whole day today to trade) and got off with a few hundred pounds. Looks like you might bag a few grands instead.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    What Makes a Successful trader?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM&feature=related

    [I'm not saying this presentation is the gospel, but I think would enjoy it]
    -Gerb

  • fast and steady

    52 trades in the last 48 hours in f/x and 5 hours of sleep. My eyes feel like they have been sprayed with acid.

  • Ivan

    Automation is simply a function of applying a ruleset … any person can do that with minimal time required to play ‘tick this box’ … once they have internalised the rules … same as driving a car and following the signs and traffic lights and speed restrictions (to various extents) … always being mindful of the ‘what if’ factor … with a campaign, the ‘what if’ is really easy … 1R is the max downside … on the +R size … totally unknown in reality, nortwithstanding the stats of the ruleset … unknown yet perceived as some sort of possible or even probable.

    Short answer is yes … my approach is totally rule-based.

  • newbfxtrader

    Whats the reward you are looking for? Double your account? Triple?

  • fast and steady

    I don’t really have a goal. My core position is in metals. I’m doing the best I can. I feel that the zero greatly improves my confidence.
    BTW, do any of you guys have any comments on the lack of premium in SLV leaps?

  • Schwerepunkt

    That’s WAY TOO MANY trades, my friend. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Mole occasionally posts an SPX/Gold chart.
    notice the bounces at the Fibonacci Levels, log chart of course.

    where were you in 1974?
    http://s7.postimage.org/c9nswo7ff/spx_gld.png

  • newbfxtrader

    You still got plenty of time left. Its got to get below 2. And when priced in gold the real bull market is separated from the currency depreciating levitating fake bull markets.

  • newbfxtrader

    Seems a bit excessive but what do I know. I am still a noob. I will let one the real traders step in to advice you. Wont you have to make 60pips or more just to breakeven depending on the spreads?

  • fast and steady

    1 pip is enough to break even.

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD. Nobody made money on that pair for the last 4-days. Zzzzzz . . . Zzzzzz . . . Zzzzzz.

  • fast and steady

     I have been doing this since I was 17 but this is the first time that I have decided to focus on f/x.

  • Ivan

     That has to be zero slip on way in or the way out!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..same level as 2008.  you could say years.

  • fast and steady

     I always use limit orders, not market orders for f/X.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems to me the bottom is in on that pair. Higher lows since 2008. On a monthly chart, it’s sitting just above the 25-monthly MA at 0.9938. 100-month MA is 1.0871. Needs to test that level.

    Disclosure: as a Yank living in Canada with US income, I have a vested interest in this pair going much higher whether I trade it or not.

  • Skynard

    Full strenght on /SB now:)

  • Ivan

    A limit order for a stop loss … hmmm!

    And for the record, 3 trades or so per hour is not necessarily overtrading … depends on the ruleset and the purpose for such activity … it could be as simple as wanting to de-sensitise oneself to profits and losses … or to build up expertise in using the trading platform … like a tennis player firing off 60 serves in one hour during a training session.

  • Skynard

    Dollar getting in the backend:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    I want to see that tattoo when she turns 80…Not! 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no problem.  she just needs “Turlington’s Lower Back Tattoo Remover”

  • fast and steady

     Yup, I have just got back in the game and I’m doing as much rapidfire trading as I can.

  • newbfxtrader

    Taking kiwi offline for now. 

  • Joe_Jones

    I’m watching the daily 25 sma. If it closes the day below it: ouch!

  • Skynard

    AUD, NZD just getting started again. Good time to move the markets while everyone is sleeping in:)

  • Skynard

    EUR pairs are juicy now:)

  • newbfxtrader

    lol ya. but kiwi looks overextended on hourly. gotta stick to my rules!

  • Skynard

    Lol, taking half off here. Good place for a bounce:)

  • newbfxtrader

    does that qualify as bias?!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes

  • Skynard

    Nice trading:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Data has been encouraging from China. Will buy the next dip. Thinking of buying some /hg on the next dip too.

  • Joe_Jones

    ES daily 25 sma is at 1394.89 now.  FYI

  • Skynard

    Will take profit /ES long from 76 at the open for a better entry:)

  • newbfxtrader

    You could try a short scalp when Greece gets “saved” spike come online!

  • Skynard

    Yes, plan on taking some profit at the open and buying it again on the dip:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    /es 1395 – this was a major level back on the 7/8th.
    after the post election drop, price refused to bounce higher for hours on end.

  • fast and steady

    Just shorted aud/jpy.

  • AMCabrera

    Mozambique Drill on the aud/jpy again short at 85.90 also long gbp/chf and short nzd/usd here.

  • Skynard

    TVIX sub dollar, Lol:)

  • fast and steady

    Gold is not reacting to the move in eur/usd.

  • Skynard

    By the looks of it /DX could really get creamed here if 80.5 not recaptured. Holy shit, loading back up:)

  • Joe_Jones

    jeez, zl is on fire at the open. 

  • Joe_Jones

    VIX does not buy the rally

  • Skynard

    Black Friday Bro, you shorting? Would not advise.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    OEX (S&P100) decisively crossed above 635.00 & MA100 last hour.

  • Joe_Jones

    just did on that blue arrow. Fuck amateurs’ hour

  • Skynard

    Dude, have you seen the ZL? You think this is exhaustion?

  • fast and steady

    And added to my aud/jpy short.

  • Skynard

    Not attempting a short until 1420.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hmmm, will there be a moderate TDA?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    looks like a Fearless bollinger ride higher.

    don’t fight the Spoos T brethern.

  • Joe_Jones

    I see it. I also see the SPX daily 25 sma just above and VIX not playing ball. 
    I don’t mind risking a few handles.

  • Skynard

    Gaurentee you these are not amateurs!

  • fast and steady

     Wow, gold just exploded.

  • bdoone

    9 & 21sma >0 since open and only 2 closes neg. on 1 min. 43/45mins pos. is 96%
    GC just popped 10???

  • Joe_Jones

    Well, we’ll see. If we breach the strong resistance above, then I’ll take my loss and flip the trade. Right now, I feel like living dangerously.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Feelings.   oh yeah.  good stuff.  bank coin on that. ;-)

  • Skynard

    Full bot action today:)

  • newbfxtrader

    yep. Take a look at /6n

  • Skynard

    Mon will make a good short ounce we see a div:)

  • Tronacate

    long from last night :)

  • Tronacate

    Rulesets/automation eliminates the “dope on hope” syndrome.

  • fast and steady

    good for you :)

    Ended up getting out for a 11000 yen loss.

  • Tronacate

    So much for the VIX sell signal eh?

  • Skynard

    Buy point, full long the /ES.

  • Tronacate

    So much for the VIX sell signal……

  • Skynard

    Lol, both AUD and NZD were ripe for a squeeze:)

  • Skynard

    Div on the hourly, ride that Bitch for a while. Anticipating a quick pullback next week to shake the tree some before this rally continues.

  • AMCabrera

    oh well nzd/usd was fast to stop me out. I will wait again at .8300 for the longer time frame range. aud/jpy is still with me (short) and gbp/chf long.

  • fast and steady

    Trying another aud/jpy short after a loss on the first try.

  • AMCabrera

    I hope you are kidding or that is divide by 10.

  • Skynard

    Not worth fighting the bots, you will get stung:( Should see a div develop soon on the 5 min ZL. TDA is saying something else though.

  • fast and steady

     No, I’m not.Why? :)

  • AMCabrera

    $11000 loss is ridiculous.

  • fast and steady

     yen, not $ :)

  • fast and steady

     I have had $11000 losses though. A long time ago…

  • fast and steady

     And I was talking about my short aud/yen trade, not gold. :)

  • Skynard

    This thing can run now, especially since we have busted through resistance.

  • Skynard

    US Markets close at noon.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    87, 89, no one listen to little Gerb.
    oh well, I guess it’s a Mole curse. ;-)

    http://s9.postimage.org/3vjza0ijx/temp3.png

  • Joe_Jones

    Which time zone are you? I thought they close at 1 pm:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

  • fast and steady

    Yup, shit always happens when I don’t follow my own rules. I think that is the hardest thing to keep under control.

  • bdoone

    I believe 1pm NY time, 1:15 futures

  • Skynard

    Oh, my bad. That’s CST.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    now we know you’re a Chicago exchange bot. ;-)

  • Skynard

    No, it’s knowing when to sell. Red or green, it doesn’t matter:)

  • Skynard

    Lol, Damn!

  • Skynard

    Watch the fakeout sell:)

  • fast and steady

    Just shorted eur/usd.

  • fast and steady

     Oh boy, another losing trade…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    I was so bearish on DX, but closed my short before Holiday. 
    And don’t tell me about “wishing to be in / out” and all that.
    What good is it to have a system with positive expectancy, if I don’t take all signals.?
    And of course, the signal I don’t take is the one that would put me in the black.
    20/20 and all that crap

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    trade with attitude that it’s just one of another 1000 trades.
    comes with the territory.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok, I’m outta here.
    time with family and all that.

  • fast and steady

     Damn right:) Worst trading day of the week.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Always ;-)

  • Skynard

    Compressing, she going to pop:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure why you guys are trading today. The Friday after Thanksgiving is always a shake out day. It’s best to keep your ammunition dry for another day.

  • Skynard

    Enjoy it Gerb. Before you know it the house is empty:)

  • MrMargin

    Question is: Why didn’t you take the signal? Maybe your system doesn’t suit you all that well. If you can’t help it, but ignore signals from time to time, you might want to consider trading in a way that doesn’t depend  on not missing that one big trade.

  • MrMargin

    Almost perfect TD today, made around 22R…

  • ridingwaves

    if this dollar H&S chart plays out so long shorts and so far, looks good..
    http://s8.postimage.org/k8m6s9fw5/USD_11_19.jpg

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, Nice!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Great question!
    One of very important attributes of this system is that it trades futures only, mainly to avoid overnight gaps and to be always protected by a stop. Naturally, i have to close open positions before big holidays and weekends. it saved my ass more times than i can count. Still, a good entry signal may come when I am sleeping, away or drunk.
    I am clearly not Skynard… lol

  • Skynard

    Out of /ES long and now short:)

  • Joe_Jones

    All in short

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES?

  • Joe_Jones

    QQQ

  • Skynard

    Nice looking div, not to sure it plays out. Went short /ES for a hedge. Think we see some down play/last chance for longs next week.

  • ridingwaves
  • bdoone

    Mole, whats the red horizontal line in the volume profile (1404.88)? Is that 100d sma in ES?

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c9288549-aacf-4de6-a111-2efa29b27f57/2012-11-23_1253.png
    irony it seems. Last year the succubus occurred at 1160. First test will be 1420 obviously. 

  • Skynard

    WooHoo, look at that signal!

  • ronebadger

    just got back from shopping…what signal?   I see we are back at VIX-Signal Step Zero, though

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks like those believing in a Santa rally are all in

  • Skynard

    Was referring to the ZL signal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, the bulls really took advantage of the low vol post holiday session.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I haven’t seen a 6.0 for a LONG time…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry, I’m on vacation (for a change) – see you guys on Monday.

  • AMCabrera
  • Joe_Jones

    Never seen one before

  • Joe_Jones

    High ISEE equity nbrs all day today
    http://www.ise.com/webform/viewpage.aspx?categoryid=126

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Risk up another point.
    For a multi-week bear, now might be the time to take those final profits before they melt away any more.
    then again, this chart could whipsaw like July did.  so it’s not a bull absolute victory.
    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62549193245

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back in the days – especially to the downside in 2008 and early 2009. On the upside in 2010 I think when the shorts really got squeezed. But yeah, it’s been a while.

  • Joe_Jones

    Such an extreme signal must have a meaning for things to come

  • Curiousmind3861

    so friday was a huge short squeeze? and what usually happens after such an extreme signal?

  • newbfxtrader

    Squeeze in the other direction!

  • itcomesupinwaves

    The four touches of support at 80 would have been a great entry. You make a good point though, historical resistance at these levels and ob shows no more sellers above.  Watching closely.

  • AMCabrera

    yea adding to my shorts. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Looking forward to that comments refresher. Night is still young but I like it when gravity  takes over.

  • Joe_Jones

    If I were in Spain I’d move to Barcelona after Cataluña separates

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    gravity should take over around close on the 27th.
    (you could stretch the T to the 28th)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    obligatory graphic
    http://www.idealspain.com/Illustrations/Maps/regionsofspain.jpg

    ExtremaDura, is that where large condoms are manufactured?(DG ducks)

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL. !

    Back home, Texas could be the first to call it quit (petitions  dot whitehouse dot gov). At presently  23,460 votes, Arizona still won’t get a letter from the WH     

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh there are so many possibilities to this reply.
    my maternal great grand pappy is from Texas, so I’ll keep it short.
    apples don’t far from the tree.

    http://accurateshooter.net/Blog/gunmap.gif

  • Joe_Jones

    If there would be an easy way out of the Union, America would be better managed I tell you.

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you guys see the move in NG just now? This is why I tell you guys to play it small with this one! LOL

  • Schwerepunkt

    U guys are full of IT. Talk of secession is utter folly and shows how out of touch and intellectually bankrupt the right-wing is . . . just saying. 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    why ? you speka Catalan?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    are you one of those islamo-fascists?
    cause if you aint red, then you’re a terra-rist. ;-)

    http://christwire.org/wp-content/uploads/new_iraq.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Back to work, rats!

  • Joe_Jones

    No, but I know the Region, and it can fend for itself much better that the rest of  Bankrupt Spain.




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