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A For Effort
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A For Effort

by The MoleJune 10, 2009

2:47pm EDT: As you guys are all yapping like crazy I guess I better post something new before the comment count gets of hand.

I’ll have to give the bears a gold star and an A for effort – but that’s pretty much it. Sorry guys – we are not going anywhere unless you master the art of the one-two punch. One: Take out that damn diagonal support line – two: breach through 922 already. Unless those two events happen we are going nowhere fast.

2:51pm EDT: Careful now on the short side:

I know this is just a hummingbird view but we could easily rally into the close unless we turn in the next few minutes.

3:59pm EDT: Well, that H&S played out after all…


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    working full speed today, huh? 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Long live the triangle lol

  • molecool

    I got you mate – I got you.

  • isaiah64v4

    Keirsten

    I know you are out there… I can hear you cat purrrrrrrrrr.. What do you think

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0

    Time to short getting close?
    🙂

  • C C Rider

    Pass the bear meat. Me hongry.

  • v8muscle

    Is anyone else seeing these huge ass buys on IWM? volume is insane

  • v8muscle

    960 please

  • molecool

    Got ketchup?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    TBT June 58 puts talking to wind.

  • blues

    Yup, here comes the last hour push (manipulation)!

  • YOGI

    mole…no shorts yet?

  • lester

    closed my danged SPY Puts. Just once I would like a green trade

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Just got in – slept in late today, no internet at home… and then meetings at work…

    WOW – quite a crazy day… 934 is the key … if that gets taken out… 938 will come in a hurry.. Otherwise, 928 will come in a hurry

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    985 please

  • Keirsten

    The commodity sector in general to me looks like it could roll over tomorrow on the 60 min time frame, but my own rule is to wait to initiate a short once it breaks the low of the previous day (meaning Monday's low.) That would also be a clean break right out of you wedge line too Isaiah- so nice insurance going into the trade. I'm short OIH, X and POT here for the commodity short, but have set tight stops in case we get some surprise. G/L Buddy. 🙂

  • alphahorn

    dude, wave iv up just ended, now we are beginning wave v down

  • katzo7

    EW4 is in and labeled, not 100% sure but looks like lower close. Bookends?

  • alphahorn

    come on wave v take out 923.85 so the party can begin!!!!!!!

  • v8muscle

    HUGE buy order in on /es

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    overruled

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /CL TDSequential Countdown Sell TODAY

  • annamall

    touche'

  • annamall

    What is left now Lester?

  • lester

    I guess things are looking better for you now.

  • annamall

    Sellers coming back in now! heads up, careful if you're long.

  • Keirsten

    Hey David! I saw your charts. You already know I'm a DM junkie, you're gonna get more converts on here methinks. Thanks for the fixes you keep posting, and please keep 'em coming! 😉

  • thelefteyeguy

    why?….

  • Keirsten

    See David's entry below too Isaiah.

  • lester

    I need to post a graph of my screwed up trading decisions and account balances some day. Thye have been screwed since November 2007.

  • v8muscle

    I think this move down might be the pre-3:30pm selloff. Usually we'll get a small move from2:30-3:30 and then counter that move with a huge one in the opposite direction at 3:30

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I trade what I know, know what I trade …nothing more than that 🙂
    Just had my bronze returned and polished 🙂

  • isaiah64v4

    Keirsten

    Thanks !

    For your enjoyment……

    http://www.youtube.com/user/TheHumorArtist

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    watch 929.5 now 🙂

  • v8muscle

    I wouldnt go that far. The razor blade is a bit further from my wrist now though.

  • lester

    Mole's warning about being short? and the tape WAS supporting him at that time.

  • Keirsten

    HA! Have you run the scan on the dollar yet? (she asks while trying to bribe the info out of him)

  • lester

    wishful thinking! but I just went long for 40 mins

  • alphahorn

    they're saving all the fireworks for the last 30 mins again, should be fun as it explodes in one direction or another, just like a couple of fridays ago

  • Keirsten

    YW- and that video is too cute. Anna- you have to watch it when you get a minute.

    P.S.- I just took a small position in DTO.

  • springheel_jack

    You're too impatient Lester. We're still looking good to close down today & tomorrow.

    The bulls failed today to put the bears out of the picture. If we break out of the rising wedges to the downside the puts will fly.

  • lester

    that was a totally different situation. Flat boring tape all day and then explosion (after I had left for the weekend)

  • springheel_jack

    I wondered where you were today Lots of excitement but not much tape covered.

  • v8muscle

    $TICK heading way up and fast.

    3:30 rally is coming

  • lester

    for now it appears the underside of triangle held…maybe not be EOD wish I knew

  • v8muscle

    Mole, you might want to point out the larger divergence on the zero which encompasses the two smaller ones

  • salvadorveiga

    Hello everyone…

    What is the opinion of the majority here about the Book “The Turtle Way” ? Is it good or just one more book that talks and adds nothing concise?

    I am aware of the turtles but read a book of Michael Covel named “Turtle Trader” and it was pretty much crap… it added little, and was more of a narrative story of the Turtles…didn't like the book to be sincere.

  • onorio

    if this goes up, there`s gonna be a hell of a squeeze

  • Keirsten

    When you get a chance, check out X. It looks to be topping out against old gap resistance on the daily, right @ 40 even.

  • onorio

    I have the book sal, i think is a good book but more for long term traders. I consider it useful as a trader.

    Anyway i have the PDF, i can send it to you so u can take a look.

  • Osso

    just dead bull bounces…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /dx is in confirmed uptrend for 5 days now, nothing new to add (daily)
    But I got 112.275 bottom on /zn magically today 🙂

  • amgrant

    Still think 928 holds – for today. We're oversold on most time frames and the symmetry I put up on my site is too compelling.

    Tomorrow is another day, however.

  • isaiah64v4

    Excellent…I was holding off to the close to take one…

  • MaxPainMan

    oh lovely triangle (on the 10 min)… which way will you turn?

  • v8muscle

    whats your take tomorrow? break lower?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    got to have your own opinion

  • fa_q

    Covered my last 1/4 at 931.50. Thought the bears would do more with today than they did. That's 15 pts on that quarter or 3.75 of a full for a total of 15.875 pts on a full position.

    I'm flat here and very disappointed 925 couldn't get cracked today on the ES

  • katzo7

    Hey, I think I see a top! LOL J/K

    And DavidDT, really glad you are here guy! I remember when you fisrt came on and tried to steal our mole le cool away. NO ONE fucks with our mole. LOL
    Hey, where is he. Come on mole, join us.

    And David I agree with you about EWs, they suck. Except for when they work. And they have been working lately.

    Have to go to a party real soon. SEE ya. Triangle building on 5 min. SPX. Hold any long term shorts.

  • onorio

    where`s the fu#k is PPT?

  • MaxPainMan

    booooooooo

  • springheel_jack

    Just for those interested in gold & silver. Here are updated versions of my gold & silver charts showing the bullish patterns being tested at the moment.

    Gold with inverse H&S:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/springheel_

    Silver with Cup with Handle:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/springheel_

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    here comes the pump up.Right on time

  • kinihepu

    I'm waiting for the red circle.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/KbSvv3Vb

  • MaxPainMan

    stop sweep attack on /ES 935? then headed back down maybe?

  • Keirsten

    Thank you sir, and nice call. My trading partner is on vacation this week and he's the one who usually feeds me the DM info. One of these days I'm going to make him give me the code.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Let the GSR begin. (Goldman Sachs Rally)

  • amgrant

    Just think were gonna screw around the 940 area this week. Next week I see down.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    39.54 was a td risk level based on daily count
    Short trade would have to be closed at loss now on X (some people get out right away – on intraday basis, I prefer to wait till close or even next day, but in 70% in such cases lose more money.
    For my taste – it is not a good short anymore

  • Osso

    are they going to pump GOOG…… ?????? dead all day…
    Qs ….bouncing…as usual

  • v8muscle

    theyve arrived dont worry

  • katzo7

    Note these PPT candles on the 5 min., they shoot up and drop back immediately. Remember my spike chart?

  • Osso

    thing is…there are no more naked shorts to cover……they already did…..or they died.

  • cuvo

    Hey Mr Market – Hans and Franz are here to Pump You Up!
    After which you can pick yourself up by the love handles and carry yourself out to the garbage.

  • Osso

    transports and semis may end …green…..????

  • springheel_jack

    I don't think we'll be closing green today.

    Good buying opportunity to reload shorts for tomorrow.

  • springheel_jack

    You can still smell them on hot days. Decomposition takes a while.

  • amgrant

    Hi to low is 955 to 927…the mid point of which is 941. I expect us to dance around this pole for a few days.

  • OllyVaradi

    “Good buying opportunity to reload shorts for tomorrow.”

    Contradiction in terms???

  • standard_and_poor

    Took a small bit off the table brothers and sisters at 935.

    Brother Al Green:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4SRqkBwnbo

  • katzo7

    No, he is right, I see an up move tomorrow.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    “Who keeps on giving me a point?”
    Probably some hillbilly…. too much moonshine too early in the day. 😉

  • springheel_jack

    I think we'll move up overnight.

    We're backtesting the bear wedge bottom channel now.

  • thelefteyeguy

    someone pass the barf bag…

  • amgrant

    Believe it or not, I think this type of action is GOOD for bears.

    The problem with large sell offs lately has been that the market is quick to get oversold, so the bounce is even more pronounced. If we can manage to take our time, I think overall that's better…get more mileage out of the car, so to speak.

  • amgrant

    Haha

  • blues

    Is it so hard just have 1 trend day down?! Always buy buy buy at the end of the day… this is getting sick…

  • katzo7

    Hey I resemble that remark.
    Very funny.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It will be funny if we again close at 940 or so… Another doji

    ________________________________

  • thelefteyeguy

    tell me about it…

    the channel is still in play…wtf

  • cuvo

    Eventually, yo-yo strings made of hope get old and break.

  • amgrant

    I'm serving 4 hot dojis in 9 minutes.

  • springheel_jack

    Updated SPX 60 min bear wedge chart:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

  • amgrant

    True, but until it breaks bulls in control. Believe me, I don't like that more than the next guy.

  • springheel_jack

    Hot dojis all round

  • C C Rider

    I wonder where I've seen this b4. 942 close would be appropo.

  • annamall

    This is a market not many can stand including me. I closed my shorts@ 935 and went long. doing the same crap as usual. sigh….

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hi K,

    As you know, I'm bearish all things and all timeframes (lol). However Brad Setser has an interesting post today on China external investment. I've argued previously that China would seek to reduce their dollar exposure by spending as much of it as feasible on commodities, producers & properties (ag, mining, etc). Reports of Chinese stockpiling tends to support this view. In some respects Setser is endorsing this view as he describes the allocation of cash to various managers in a ramp-up to investment. The Rio Tinto/Chinalco deal was essentially the same thing. To sum-up my point, I'm with you on the short side intermediate-term (out maybe a month, perhaps less if they catch a bid), but then would look for the producers of STUFF to rip as China starts to swap dollars for STUFF & the producers of STUFF. So be careful out there. Available Chinese cash exceeds a multiple of the value of annual global commodity production. Of course, after they shoot their wad of cash…….Muuuuwaaaaahahahahahahaha!!!!!

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    One, please.

  • katzo7

    Man, you and I are killer. What I miss you see.
    Watch out Wall St.

  • v8muscle

    closed 1/3 for a 23% loss. I needed to de-risk a bit and raise some cash

  • anotherone

    I've been reading Alan Farley's “The Master Swingtrader” and I actually am beginning to feel a little comfortable with this market. Which means it'll change starting tomorrow. 🙂

  • Osso

    lesson learned: never short a mkt. that is under Intervention. Point.

  • GoCougs

    RIMM looking sharp into the close, bounced off the VWAP and heading up!

  • lester

    Hey, I closed a green trade. First one since March. Only made $20 but it is a step…

  • Osso

    939 is 50% retracement of 950-928.

  • Osso

    transports green…as predicted…..SMH missed by 0.01….

  • onorio

    Triangle is on the table anna, 930 was a risky short IMO

  • amgrant

    FOUR f'n dojis…my prediction…2 more.

  • rhae

    wtg… I used to trade just to beat commish…. amazing how nimble one can be just trading a few shares……

  • Squidman

    A major piercing pattern on the $vix today. Iti s a clear reversal pattern. The previous hammer and spring is also holding. Very bearish for the markets. Patience!

  • springheel_jack

    Well, another paralysed day, but some signs of life & we closed red.

    The good news is that we have another bond auction tomorrow & $TRANS failed to confirm the Dow high yet again. We also did get a bearish engulfing doji, though it isn't that easy to see with the naked eye.

    This tape will probably trend up overnight. I'm going to add ES shorts at 945.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Glad I forgot unlock code from my Glock23 – another f..g DOJI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • ropey

    did you get back into rimm? thought you closed out this am?

    I made a complete monkeys breakfast of today, i did ok closing out aapl bf but should of held MA – cant believe how much that ran – on top of that dumped rimm ( stupid move )…and rode Q puts down, made a bit of cash yay, then held some, went off for a quick bite to eat only to come back and find my arse had just been poked with king kong's finger.
    Where is the damn pump coming from at 3:30 – it's regular as clockwork now and i should of known better.

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • lester

    Yeah I actually made $45 before commish. I actaully made $24 if were counting dollars.

  • amgrant

    Ya, that VIX daily chart is very compelling. There is an absolutely beautiful fib line at 26.48 if you join the all time lows and highs of the VIX.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Sugar. If I stay in this trade it's only for a ST scalp unless I get some decent confirmation. And yep- did you see that story I posted awhile back about China replacing the dollar with copper? (well, you get the idea anyway.) When the growth really does come to pass again, they're are loaded up with everything they need at deflated prices. Smart cookies if you ask me. I really look forward to getting long RTP at some point and staying put.

  • onorio

    I`m still holding my calls since 929 last week…i could get out last friday at 950 , reloaded at 930 monday, get out again today at 955 and reloaded again at 928…

    This market is a daytrader paradise….

    Anyway and with some theta burn, im still green…..waiting to 960/80

  • v8muscle

    im with you man. theta is kicking my ass. raised some cash to buy the pullback tomorrow

  • annamall

    Closed my long ES @ 940 AH. Jeez this tape is nuts.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    dont forget tax

  • alphahorn

    Well both bears and bulls have reasons to feel comfortable and nervous.

    The bear case was strengthened today by the breaking of an important trendline, (red dashed line) and just as happened the last time (6/8, see yellow circles) the SPX came back and retested. The bears remain nervous because they have not taken out the key resistance of 923.85, which will confirm the downtrend.

    the bulls are comfortable because it appears the abcde triangle is playing out according to plan. Yet the market closed right at resistance of the broken trendline, and this bounce off the bottom of the triangle might be the beginning of the next move up, or just a retest of a broken trendline before a sell-off.

    so, until the bull take out 951.69 or the bears take out 923.85, the jury is still out

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • lester

    I closed my Puts that I bought at 931 for 934 (loss). Went long at 935 and closed at 938 (gain). Loss overall due to commish. Now if I had gone short at 938 at noon, would have been much better.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    i got screwed on my shorts earlier, went long, made up for most of it, closed out with a smaller loss than if I hadnt gone long towards the end. Holding a long for overnight, but have an exit at 944 if it hits.

  • lester

    good analysis, but WTF do I know

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup
    and we closed under 941.25 which made it into bearish price flip on /es
    we shall see
    vodka time for me
    lots of vodka…
    XLF is the sickest one for now

  • onorio

    And that`s the story since last week…theta burn and a lot of going nowhere.

  • Leon

    you should have waited for the 4:14 ET pump up to 941 (just kidding – I haven't seen that in a while though)

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    Interesting day – flipped some QID for a nice profit early in the day, then took some profits on the LVLT run-up because of the announcement of talks on a JV with Sprint. Let everything else run and ended up within a few bucks of where I started. Still sitting on 17 small positions that have run over 30% ranging from MSFT +30% to BCS +550% while I keep averaging down on my short position hedges that I'm waiting to sell on a big down day that never seems to come.

  • amgrant

    As this action continues, I'll get more and more bearish. If we are no where come Friday, I will go bearish over the weekend. I'm already bearish via short call spreads, but I'll add. What is making me money these days, however, are my long ES trades. I'd say a good 80-90% of my trades over the past two weeks in ES are long.

    The onus at the moment is not on bears to push lower, but on bulls to push higher.

    Once the correction comes, however, I expect buyers to step in. I still remain in the camp that we hit 900 before 960.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    for the love of anyone – how the hell it settled at 936.25???

  • onorio

    Mole one question about ZL divegences…

    The two small divegences you refer on the chart are making a bigger one, what do you think about it?

    Tks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    well, I guess I need to start to collect premiums – market will move than 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    You're right. Maybe we'll see tomorrow.

    $TRANS closed a whisker below a new high though. Bears could use a down close tomorrow.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • dullmind

    Thanks to alphahorn and standard_and_poor, led me to a day trade with SSO, only 2% up, but still coin I
    would not have otherwise, closed in last 30 seconds because I did not want to hold over night, don't trust
    bullish positions over night, even with TA in my favor. We will see what tomorrow brings.
    Did not try SPY or ES options because have not yet been able to ever earn a profit from buying options.
    Selling them, working over time has been ok, but all purchased options are deep under water, fortunately
    the ones I have are for little money, so no too worried if the go no where.

  • springheel_jack

    And so it was!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Here's an obscure copper & pgm play for you to watch: PLM. They've developed a new process for refining lower grade ores (the Platsol Process) and are working on their EIS for a new project in n.e. MN ;->

    While EIS are notoriously difficult up here due to our proximity to Superior National Forest & BWCAW, the sagging economy could generate significant grass-roots support. It's either a big long-term winner or they never get out of the gate…..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    well, one of those days – just shot me an email for that 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Sounds like “Die Hard 2”

  • PRSGuitars

    You're probably using TOS and probably suffering the same freakout I had briefly — it's now apparent that TOS switched from /esm9 (june /es) to /esu9 (sept. /es) for the 'front-month' futures symbol — ie, just “/es”.

    The september (/esu9) is still trading about flat from the close — though I too almost lost it when I realized /es “lost” 5 points during the AH settlement 4:15-4:30. Thus, no worries.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is always darker under the light…
    ANd I was repeatedly posting today “don't get hit by /es rollover decay”
    thank you

  • Teich50

    Good trade. Are you thinking of reloading your ES short, which is at ~945? Looks like they keep ramping the futures two nights in a row.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Here's an obscure copper & pgm play for you to watch: PLM. They've developed a new process for refining lower grade ores (the Platsol Process) and are working on their EIS for a new project in n.e. MN ;->

    While EIS are notoriously difficult up here due to our proximity to Superior National Forest & BWCAW, the sagging economy could generate significant grass-roots support. It's either a big long-term winner or they never get out of the gate…..

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    well, one of those days – just shot me an email for that 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Sounds like “Die Hard 2”

  • PRSGuitars

    You're probably using TOS and probably suffering the same freakout I had briefly — it's now apparent that TOS switched from /esm9 (june /es) to /esu9 (sept. /es) for the 'front-month' futures symbol — ie, just “/es”.

    The september (/esu9) is still trading about flat from the close — though I too almost lost it when I realized /es “lost” 5 points during the AH settlement 4:15-4:30. Thus, no worries.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it is always darker under the light…
    ANd I was repeatedly posting today “don't get hit by /es rollover decay”
    thank you

  • Teich50

    Good trade. Are you thinking of reloading your ES short, which is at ~945? Looks like they keep ramping the futures two nights in a row.