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A Golden Light…
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A Golden Light…

by MoleAugust 4, 2008

If we are going to be bent on Market Domination (which we are), we need to cover a wide variety of markets. This is our first hard commodities forecast, focusing on Gold (Constant Contract Futures and September Futures). As I am not as technically inclined as our mad-man Molecool, I will just be posting links until he keys me in on how to throw up charts. Bear with us as this is still in it’s infancy, and only Vikings leave their new-borns outside overnight.

Here goes.

Gold (as represented by /ZG or /ZGU8 (TOS)) has recently completed a five wave decline from 15 July, 2008. Elliott’s rules specifiy that the market now must bounce in a 3-wave manner before giving way to larger declines. As of Friday, 1 August, 2008, Gold has appeared to have completed both wave “a” and “b” of 2. What we are expecting in the near future (less than 1 week) is for Gold to continue rallying into the range of 942 to 946 (/ZG) or as high as 957 (/ZG), with potential of a small spike over the 957 target. However, there is a strong indication of resistance and potential end to the “c” wave of 2 at the lower range, based upon Fibonacci relationships. The equivalent levels in the September contract (/ZGU8) are 935 to 940, with potential to spike into the 953 area. The equivalent levels in GLD would be 91.5 to 92.5 with the spike range surrounding the 94-95 area.
/ZG Constant Contract

/ZGU8 September Contract

I have decided to use the Constant contract becuase it logs more time and gives more clear Elliott patterns. Many of you might be curious about an A/B scenario as you should be getting used to multiple paths for market direction. In this case, scenario A is layed out above, being the highest likelihood. Scenario B is that wave 2 is already complete and Gold is on the verge of another breakdown. Nothing says that scenario B is not valid, we just have more evidence leading to scenario A.

Skol.

Berkshire


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • DMS425

    Nice fellas, I will be lurking around. If you need help, let me know, and I will see what I can do (IE; Data )

    Congrats.

  • molecool

    Thanks mate – greatly appreciated. BTW, saw your posting on the slope and nobody in their right mind is buying new planes right now (except military).

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks Dave…It would be great to get your input on some of this stuff. Hope you enjoy.

  • DMS425

    I think the the market for airplane engines/planes will be flooded with used engines/planes, creating a difficult environemnt for the OEMs. Similiar to what happened to tech in 2000. Too many “like new” parts/equipment on the market depressing prices.

    Look for companies with a high degree of leverage.

  • DMS425

    Nice fellas, I will be lurking around. If you need help, let me know, and I will see what I can do (IE; Data )

    Congrats.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks mate – greatly appreciated. BTW, saw your posting on the slope and nobody in their right mind is buying new planes right now (except military).

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks Dave…It would be great to get your input on some of this stuff. Hope you enjoy.

  • DMS425

    I think the the market for airplane engines/planes will be flooded with used engines/planes, creating a difficult environemnt for the OEMs. Similiar to what happened to tech in 2000. Too many “like new” parts/equipment on the market depressing prices.

    Look for companies with a high degree of leverage.