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A Great Run
60

A Great Run

by The MoleOctober 10, 2017

Our E-Mini campaign finally met its maker, effectively stopping us out at about 2.75R with an MFE of 3.25R. So absolutely no complaints here as we had great run, and just like Usain Bolt we did it in style – just a little bit slower. And quite frankly I’m not too broken up about that little stop run yesterday as I’m starting to see a few alerts blinking down here in the lair.

2017-10-10_ES_update

Here once more is our complete campaign in all its glory. A textbook entry right before the big launch higher followed by only a few shallow dips on the way up. That’s the stuff traders like us dream of and I’m glad we got to ride a good part of it. So what lies ahead for equities?

2017-10-10_ES_volume

Well a shake out is increasingly likely as the E-Mini volume profile is resembling oxygen levels in the upper Himalayas. Unless we’re getting more sherpas to carry the load gravity is likely to make itself felt and that soon.

2017-10-10_SPX_VIX

Market makers are already pricing in a bit more risk as evidenced by the SPX:VIX ratio above. While it’s leading continuation of an ongoing trend higher usually has the best odds. And although a divergence does not spell doom one should take note if conditions maintain more than two sessions.

Campaign Updates

2017-10-10_ZN_update

We double dipped on the 10-year bond futures after an ignominious stop-out that scraped our ISL by only a few ticks. However the new formation looked promising and I decided to grab another lottery ticket yesterday. So far so good but we are far from being out of the woods here which is why my ISL remains in place.

2017-10-10_soybeans_update

Please ignore that comment on my soybeans chart as our ISL still remains in place. Yes, it’s rather conservative but this campaign has a lot of long term potential, assuming that it’s able to get out of the gate. The formation on the daily panel suggests that a break out pattern is approaching, however we need to remain patient.

2017-10-10_USDCAD_update

Talking about great runs – our USD/CAD finally got stopped out at > 3.5R in clean profits. This one actually took a bit of finesse in regards to trailing it higher and I hope the way it was handled serves as a basic template for your own campaigns. My standard policy these days for break out entries is to go to b/e at 1R, then give them more space to run during the first 2R, and finally start trailing them at -1R until 4R MFE has been reached. From there I trail at about 0.5R MFE or any major stop low until stop out occurs.

2017-10-10_USDCHF_update

USD/CHF is looking indecisive but as our stop is at break/even already there’s nothing to be done here right now. If you look at the daily panel then it should become clear that a shake out here is possible and probably the most likely scenario. But if it turns and starts running then this is going to turn into a massive squeeze. Again that would be the less likely scenario but we are positioned well so now we just have to wait and see.

2017-10-10_AUDNZD_update

AUD/NZD just peeled its tires and I’m moving my stop to break/even.

2017-10-10_gold_shyte_happens

Now gold is the one that got away but like ever so often it is worth observing the aftermath of a stop out as it can be extremely educational. Just to be clear – there’s nothing we could have done differently at the time of our entry. Our ISL was pretty solid and it getting swiped was simply bad luck.

But what is most compelling now is what happened after the first spike response higher. It just kept on running without giving us retail rats any opportunity to get back in. This stuff happens all the time, especially in the futures and forex, but not often enough that I personally would want to chase it higher, it’s probably a coin toss chance. But once it takes off like this it rarely looks back and a even modest spike lows make for a good entry opportunity. For now I’m just going to observe and try not to get too depressed about obviously having been taken for a ride by someone even more nefarious than yours truly.

2017-10-10_gold_LT

The long term view is pretty interesting as it opens the door for a massive short squeeze during the coming year. I’m sure that gold won’t make it easy for the longs but if that monthly panel can hold the current formation and perhaps breach the 1380 mark then it’s off to the races for the gold bugs.

evil_separator

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mary

    I’m still long /GC from 1273.00 …. stop now moved up to 1283.40 …

  • StockTalker

    Dollar at support, out.

  • HD

    @disqus_8JuYIPzXfH:disqus very nice call on /DX 94. Look what it did to /GC! Kudos $(34) rally

  • Julie

    Nibbling short SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie

    POT Interesting a possible oversold bounce off the daily 21 ema. Must first have a bullish close above the daily 5 ema and upper trend line matching a resistance 19.06. This a.m no cigar. A bearish close below 18.89 then down to supports 18.30 a https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/839924083c2550ca50835af0fd6b1d27d59fd3613ee63edf3c66ceb4827aea45.jpg nd 18.05. The 55 ema is rising and approx. 18,20 JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    You can never have too much potash…”there not making any more of it”…

  • StockTalker

    Just following support and resistance, thanks.

  • Tomcat

    A quick update on a trade I had mentioned here a couple of times where hopefully I learned some lessons.
    The original trade was to short the NG Jan/Oct 18 spread which at the time stood at around -.35 (cents). Well the trade was going well (too well I might add) until my internal volatility decided to fck with that trade. So last Friday I flipped my Jan 18 to long at around 3.19 where I banked about 5R (Oct contract essentially remained unchanged). Well long story short, Jan contract kept going lower eating about 1.5R worth of profit where I got stopped out.

    Bottom line, every-time I seem to fck with my system and try to out-smarten it, I get kicked in the teeth (if you have never experienced this, trust me when I say, it hurts). I am beyond pissed because seems to be something that I keep doing too often. I honestly would have rather taken a loss at the original trade rather than the coin I banked and this feeling of shyte.

  • OJuice

    /CL going absolutely nuts this morning. Didn’t see that one coming.

  • StockTalker

    Short cover rally is all it looks like. Hang tight.

  • BobbyLow

    “Bottom line, every-time I seem to fck with my system and try to out-smarten it, I get kicked in the teeth (if you have never experienced this, trust me when I say, it hurts).”

    Thanks for sharing this. I need to read stuff like this because I have a built in forgettor and can’t count how many times I’ve fucked with my system during an open trade. Doing this usually bites me in the ass yet there always seems to be a challenge to change strategy during the heat of battle. I almost did it again on a short of /YM this morning but was able to stop myself from doing it. I also must keep in mind that fucking with my system in the middle of a trade and even have the trade work out to my benefit can be a bad thing. This is because it will add emotion and indecisiveness to my game which are killers for me.

    One of the main things that helps me from trying to “outsmart myself” is to keep something that Scott said about “Trading Correctly” in the back of my mind. It goes something like this; Trading correctly is not necessarily a winning trade. Trading correctly is following your own set of rules win or lose. Even when you have a loss, as long as you’ve followed your rules that’s fine. It’s all part of the process and as long as your system has an edge you’ll win in the long run.

  • ridingwaves

    ummm, it bounced solidly off support down at 49.60
    it looks like for bull move higher than 55

  • StockTalker

    Rang the bell at 51.00, in the 49-51 chop fest. Best to sell here. Especially with current market conditions.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Same here began sds and sdow this morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb


    Just to be clear – there’s nothing we could have done differently at the time of our entry. Our ISL was pretty solid and it getting swiped was simply bad luck.

    This should be the quote of the Day. Sh!t happens.

    For those that did catch some of the gleamy stuff profit, the ratio could swing low from here.
    my 2 cents.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f2395ba3b7c32063ce6c94432fecf1e6dec97a57097ccc25c308500a0669560.png
    Swiper no Swiping!

  • Tomcat

    BL,

    You are definitely a source of wisdom for me. My problem however as far I can tell stems from how my body and mind naturally responds to these situations from fighting competitively from a young age until I retired. What I am saying is, when you are in the ring, regardless what strategies (professionals almost never just plan to wing it) you prepared for that fight, the only objective is winning. As a professional there were etiquette’s (which I consider one’s character) and ofcourse rules you had to adhere to but it was ok to change your strategies/techniques (quite often I might add) based on the “situation at hand”. ofcourse sometimes, this meant that the outcome was worse than had you followed those strategies, but more often than not, it was for the better.
    This lack of discipline we’ll call it (by not sticking to your predefined strategies/rules with the thinking I will be better off) unfortunately, is what I think is at play here. So as much as I try to change this (and I like to think, I try very hard), this sort of thinking unfortunately comes naturally to me. In the end, this may mean I am just not cut for this…time will tell.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Glad you’re not blaming me! 😉

  • HD

    Can you run the zero script on a more volatile product? Like CL and if so what would that have looked like today?

  • HD
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Unfortunately the Zero derives from underlying equities related meta data and thus it’s difficult to replicate for anything else. I used to run ZeroFX a few years ago and also had a few other ideas on how to gauge momentum. However to be honest there was very little interest, so I abandoned the project/service.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    E-Mini gyrating around but the Zero signal remains mostly positive. Let’s see if we get a little ramp EOS.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0cab75d1801c9da463167505f0264389815fa7055e35d77c079242a6cd0775f2.png

  • HD

    Thx for the reply. ES and SPX 10 handle rally, exactly, & 10 handle pull back.
    HWB 2550.
    Hard to outperform price action with any indicators for SP500.

  • HD

    On deck, 30 year anniversary of Oct 19 1987 crash. That hit started the week prior w a few -3% days, Again in Oct 2007 the hit started, years ending in 7?

    Fresh ATH’s today so fractal could be more like 1997. Markets paused into EOY before 50% rally over next 3 years into GW years.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apparently I missed out on all the action yesterday. VivaEspaña!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIaICgPKHYo

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just tell us when your next flight is.
    and no one will get hurt
    😉

  • Julie

    BL A trade is never wrong if you know why you made the trade. If wrong then not wrong long
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..just found out my Master Bath shower leaked into the wall.
    oh the joy of home ownership. Worse than ThetaBurn.

  • OJuice

    Should be about time for Ms. Mole to start fussing about a vacation. It’s been a while…

  • Julie

    OJ Is Ms.Mole a blonde ? LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That really sucks. I recall a bunch of defective copper pipe installed into homes in the late 1970’s that developed pinholes.

  • BobbyLow

    OK, here’s something that I do to try and correct this problem. I do a lot of back testing that I call “training”. I even go so far as to back test and go over the last few actual trades that I’ve made almost every trading day and ask myself did I use the same conditional technique on every trade? If I did, then I’m being consistent and trading correctly. If I didn’t, it’s only a matter of time before I’m going to get whacked.

    Speaking of training, when you went into the ring to face an opponent, did you just jump in without first working your ass off to be in the best physical and mental condition BEFORE your actual fight? I think you can work through this problem.

    In the end, you’ll be the final judge as to whether you can overcome this situation or not. I think I was born with both my good and bad tendencies. Even after the work I put in to correct my bad tendencies of overthinking and overcorrecting, I also put in a safeguard and that is the use of OCO trades. What this means is that after I enter a trade, I now put in a combination of a Limit Order priced at a reasonable profit target (based on testing) and a Market Order priced at my maximum Stop Loss (based on my R limit and testing). By using OCO orders my “thinking” is then removed from the equation and price and only price will give me my eventual result.

    Lastly, sometimes, I’ll leave money on the table on the profit side and sometimes I could have saved some money by getting out sooner rather than waiting for my maximum stop. But I don’t care. My main concern is what my end result will be for the quarter or for the year and not just the results of a single trade.

  • Julie

    Bummer GG Single story or multi story house.? Multi story and master bath on second floor UGH !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    single. thank the maker.
    I refused to be packed in like chickens for an HOA.

    FREEDUM!

  • Brishort

    Attention futures traders!! the ultimate new high beta tool comes live on Nov 8:

    i) “FANG+” = futures contract 10 components at launch, all equal weigthed (vs. market cap weighted in NDX).

    ii) Index details: ref: https://www.theice.com/fangplus

    iii) Latest price chart available: ref: https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/NYFANG

    iv) Noticed Stockcharts does not seem to have it yet, therefore I have emailed their support requesting addition https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39d4244e7e13292de5f129eb4154fd4734bad8b3a7045119ff9c03787ad6300c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Well, a simple trip on his private jet doing circles for 2 to 3 business days should suffice… we could probably collectively buy his jet afterward!

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. I’ll be checking it out. Thanks.

  • BobbyLow

    Long wicks in both directions on /YM 30 Minute sucks but it is what it is.

  • Julie

    KEM Not enthusiastic about this breakout esp the volume. Would like a pullback to the 21 ema matching the 50% retracement and green support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8d9edb16fffa39ff36e60cdc10d612eaa5dab1598f0a7a5f04be6f2ab0573b1.jpg

  • HD

    Screw ICE and their fees.

  • Julie

    KEM A second chart ….. Again the 21 ema : support ; 50% retracement closely matches the Ichimoku Cloud baseline and upper cloud boundary JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d0d33a8cbc0d934aee793a5c0a18a54d8d769ba7ca7e36a2185775301e4ffac0.jpg

  • Julie

    $RUT Bull flag or rounded top ? A bearish close below 1500 and I be short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d604a2b98b0f63be28ebc91d70ceead0eb06643403cfd77647e3d4fbe66e1de0.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ramp-n-camp. stubborn.
    but can you blame it after the metoric rise?

  • StockTalker

    Nice looking head

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    helluva neck-line.

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (my eyes!)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would agree there – those bastards have clearly shown that they don’t want to deal with retail. Every year they ratchet up the fees.

  • Yoda

    while the master bates…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FANG? That sounds Chinese to me. Fang Shwing Fui!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where this may be very useful is in gauging market breadth. Think about it – put FANG+ into a ratio with the Nasdaq and I”m pretty sure we’re going to see very interesting stuff :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok. Market is closed. Go home.

    How many people died in Vegas?

    How many missiles launched into Syria?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/us-military-has-launched-more-50-than-missiles-aimed-at-syria-nbc-news.html

    We’re living in the Matrix, I swear.
    -GG

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, Catalonia just declared independence, so I expect quite a bit of blood and tears to be spilled on the Iberian peninsula.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    #Spain’s Deputy PM says PM #Rajoy in consultation with other parties over response to #Catalonia.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8af3235073bab2068644568e7154117c0702d3b2668bc0618a89a5e15de45bd8.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Your systema training will come in handy, once you run out of ammo.

    assuming you have a firearm. (yikes)
    http://www.velascolawyers.com/en/civil-law/ownership-of-firearms-in-spain.html

    Can we talk you into moving back Stateside?
    all those dam festivals and hot weather..

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Very cool product

  • evilasevildoes

    Interesting today is 3140 days from the 3/6/09 lows on the US Markets
    Pi x 1000 Is 3,140 or 8.6 years

  • Mary

    Hi Scott.

    I could never figure out why single stock futures never took off. They give the ability to trade both ways on most major symbols for only 20% margin.

    THERE IS NO VOLUME in them, yet they are still available for trading after several years of being ignored.

    I’d like your thoughts on these 2 questions:

    1. Why aren’t they utilized by traders?

    2. Why do they still exist if they’re not being traded?

    Thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III