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A Plan So Cunning
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A Plan So Cunning

by The MoleFebruary 10, 2017

As this trading week gradually draws to its end may I just pause for a moment and proclaim that I am pretty damn pleased with myself. And so should you incidentally, assuming you had the good sense to be trailing at least some of our campaigns over the past week. If you happen to be a subscriber in particular, and have been paying attention, then your account should be flashing solidly green this morning. Which incidentally should easily compensate you for another year of Evil Speculator goodness. Although that may be contradictory in theory we continue to make it work somehow. And why change when you’ve got a good thing going? 

2017-02-10_spoos_update

Alright before we get to the new goodies we have a few ongoing campaigns to attend to. Let’s start with the E-Mini which suddenly snapped into action yesterday and that means that we should now advance our trailing stop to near 2300. If you intend to trade this one as a LT campaign however you may be keeping a bit more distance. It’s possible that we’ll see a bit of a retracement today. If we do and my stop gets snagged then I may actually be looking for another entry opportunity next Monday.

2017-02-10_gold_update

Gold has been disappointing and much of our paper profits have evaporated overnight. However our current trail has not been triggered yet and I decided to leave it in place.

2017-02-10_ZB_update

Bonds also have been dropping quite a bit since Wednesday but my trail was still in place and I’m now advancing it a few ticks to below that big spike low near 150 and change.

2017-02-10_soybeans_update

Soybeans however is looking solid now and I’m pushing my trail to < 1044.75.

2017-02-10_ZM_update

Soybean Meal almost stopped us out and I’m particularly jazzed having avoided that nasty little stop runner. If you note on that hourly chart: the grains in general pull these stunts all the time as they are very small markets compared with for example the E-Mini or the bonds. So you always want to keep extra distance in the initial phases of our campaign as you will almost always see a shake out attempt just before it takes off without you. Speaking from experience here and obviously that lesson has been learned.

2017-02-10_USDJPY_watch

Now I just took a glance at the USD/JPY and hardly could contain my excitement for I have a I’ve got a plan so cunning, you could put a tail on it and call it weasel. Well, actually I’ve got two cunning plans but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. What you’re seeing on the hourly panel (left) right now is a textbook sideways pennant which I believe has a decent chance of resolving to the upside.

However, entering here will only send you into the woodshed for a special spanking. The trick for catching those slippery buggers is to always wait for the FU fake out move which invariably scares a bunch of pikes out of a perfectly good long position.

So what we’ll do instead is to wait for the drop and an ensuing spike low and then grab a long position with an ISL about the same distance away as the width of the last gyration higher. So concretely here this probably means a long somewhere near ~0.761 with a stop below 0.7570.

2017-02-10_cable_evil_plan_2

Alright, now to our second cunning plan: Cable is still flailing around like a limp noodle and I see a prime entry opportunity here if it graces us with a touch of 1.242. Which IMNSHO would be a great long opportunity with a stop below 1.23465 – or if you want to be clever you can put it below 1.23456 😉

Actually I didn’t pull that number out of my regal behind, turns out that 1.23465 is where we’ve got a daily NLSL and consider that a reasonable support zone as of now.

Of course I’m keeping a special goody for my intrepid subs:

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Words To The Wise

Contrary to my initial expectations I actually had a lot of fun this week as I very much enjoyed being able to plan and execute on several very promising campaigns and then successfully negotiate numerous shake out attempts via predefined campaign management. It is extremely rewarding to once again see our persistent nefarious efforts result into much ill gotten gains. Blackadder would be proud (and then try to steal it from us).

mauldonsblackadder-w150

Here’s me wishing you all a wonderful late winter weekend. When in doubt you may consider filling it with a high quality ale. Simple pleasures…

Prost!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • evilasevildoes

    great post..beware J PM in USA

  • ridingwaves

    animal spirits on the loose, great post, congrats on your campaigns! Enjoy the Ale and weekend..
    too early here..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    FIRE sector is literally on Fire right now

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    booked BIDU BABA and GLD. Still holding TGT LVS JWN and looking to add big GLD short on bounce.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    What sector is that?

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    What a wonderful post. And, it is why I continue to hang out here with Sir Mole Cool III and his subs. And, I hold my vision of being one day able to join into being a sub as well. I will most certainly be having a wonderful weekend. Cheers to all.

  • Billabong

    In a follow-up to last Friday’s WMT discussion (after closing out the short position), I went long on the close with a strong buy signal on a Gravestone candle after a solid down move. The long was closed out this morning when a trailing R SL was hit at 68 for +1.37R. There is currently no follow-on directional trade and earnings are in 7 days …

  • Billabong

    SI is being bought on every drop today … a slap down was tried O/N with no follow-through.

  • ridingwaves

    miners showing strength as well

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    IMHO, the whole thing is in a range hole, and with that, indecisiveness.
    I think you can find better things out there.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea6d79f179c4a2e969b954b88a5bd6f19e889260eb47230e0bc7ffe16a388435.png

  • Yoda

    I thought your trail was 1227 on Gold

  • Billabong

    I’m surprised no one mentioned HG up 4.3% … industrial miners are moving. discounting future $ down move and/or inflation coming?

  • Tomcat

    I sold the purchase I made last night too early it looks like. Only benefited from half of that move ($HG). I understand nobody got hurt taking a profit, but it sure as hell would have loved to maximize it more.

  • Billabong

    The purchase was a good move with MOMO / moving averages trending up on the daily … after about 5 weeks of slow trending, the size of this move was surprising. And it’s still making a new HOD as I type.

  • BobbyLow

    Here’s another one from the “never say never” department on Crude. I’m back to trading the daily on this bitch. I still believe that I can make more money in the long run trading shorter time frames with this thing but my style/system absolutely sucks on tighter time frames when we have a trading range. And Crude has been a trading range from hell. I’ve been hedged over the last few trades so I haven’t been taken to the woodshed. But 2017 has been a MF so far. Bonds have behaved decently so that’s been a bright spot.

    The bad thing about trading a small stable with a singular style is that when it goes into a slump, it really sucks. OTOH, when it is working well there is nothing better. I’ve been on both sides.

    On January 9th, Crude Closed at $52.98. The Highest Close since January 9th was $53.88 on February 1st. The Lowest Cose since January 9th was $50.82 on January 10th but was back to a Close of $52.20 the Next Day. We’ve gone through this shit before but it would be nice if Crude to found a sustainable direction.

  • ridingwaves

    CL is helter skelter right now but a break thru 55 could bring 60 fast
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLmqjcYtH3c

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slow here today. Nobody banking coin??

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Re-added GLD short and AMZN short. Have roughly 1-2 mo timelines on these. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dec3d06194ee974a57dfab35e58d5d04e05c06dba28af2d6ee4e12ae89bdc8ba.png

    Pretty hedged now in equities

  • Tomcat

    I have heard that there needs to be both a buyer and a seller to make a market. I am short here

  • ridingwaves

    I’m banking coin with ya…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess I’m running the whole operation just for you then 😉

  • BobbyLow

    If you’re range trading, this is probably a good move.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m leaning on its more likely your significant other than I !

  • Tomcat

    Yes, for now range trading because I have mouths too feed. I have been pretty vocal about my mid/long term targets ;).

  • Billabong

    I closed out a short oil trade yesterday for -1.24R … time to sit on the sidelines. The last month it’s trading range has been 51-54. As it hits the top of the range will it breakout or head lower?

  • Billabong

    SPR is going to sell 10M bls of oil in Feb … Taxpayers making a lot of profit on the original $100+ cost per brl. The USG is probably doing this so they can buy it back in three years for 500M-1B more than their selling it for this month.

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-To-Sell-10-Million-Barrels-From-Strategic-Reserves-This-Month.html

  • BobbyLow

    I have no idea where crude price is going to go. I’m back to net long now on a slower paced rule set but it’s still a marginal trade at best. It wouldn’t take much to push this one over the edge too.

    I’ve gone through this before and the problem I have is that once I get out of sync with price action, I usually stay that way for a long time. This has not been a lot of fun but crude putting out a couple of months of torture is usually about the Max. (Famous last words.) :)