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A Plethora Of Setups
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A Plethora Of Setups

by The MoleOctober 25, 2012

I guess I just can’t help myself – a veritable plethora of virgin setups on the horizon and it’s El Guapo’s birthday. Before we get to our new victims let’s cover some hacienda cleaning items:

The VIX may just produce signal two of a bonafide VIX buy signal today (relative to equities). In order for that to happen we must close below yesterday’s close – even if it’s just a tick or two. The rules are the rules, folks – don’t kill the messenger (except with kindness).

NZD/USD – we did get our breach and I hope you managed to hop on that bandwagon. If we can clear that NLBL then it would represent confirmation. Yee-haaa!

By the way – I have no further opinion on equities right now. You know where I stand and a low will be in place when it’s in place. No sense in wrecking our brains and trying to force it, too many great setups on the horizon across the board.

Alright – we’re running out of sunlight and we have hapless setups to attend to. On our horses!
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More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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AUD/USD – right at a daily NLBL – looking good so far. Today’s drop may be a fake out but I would prefer to see it push back above the 25-hour.

EUR/AUD, looking bearish but if you’re not in then I suggest to wait for a last kiss goodbye (LKGB) of the 25-hour we sliced through yesterday.

USD/CAD – still looking like a good short but if she holds and breaches the SMA I’m willing to flip.

USD/CHF – I’m long with a stop below today’s lows. And I sacrificed a chicken burger for lunch in its name.

Cocoda: Support has been holding on the daily – on the hourly I would like to see a breach of the 100-hour which could solidify a low here. Come to daddy!!!

Cotton – pain in the butt on the ST side today but I think we may be working on a low here on the daily. So I’m willing to consider a long position IF we remain above the now expiring NLSL. Not my favorite trade but if you cover the softs then have at it.

Copper – come to daddy!!! I want it at the SMA and how about an inside day candle after we touch? I know, I ask for too much…

Nutty gas – looking super interesting right now. That 25-day is touching the NLSL . I want the hourly to make it above the 100-hour but I may entertain a long here now. OF COURSE I would be short on a breach. But I play it very small here folks – it’s a crazy frilling contract… sheesh.

Bonds – could this be support? Let’s see if we can do the deed on the hourly side. Daily support must hold or things could get ugly. Yes, in that case I very much would want to be short – this sucker has been coiling up for a while and I’m hoping for some EOY fireworks. Maybe after the election?

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Honorable mention: I’m about to sit down for dinner but wanted to share today’s screen grab of the 1-min Mole:

I can’t wait for the weekend – to have time to work on the NinjaTrader version :-)

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Rightside_ot_trade

    aud/usd, missed it a couple of days ago, was thinking of forcing one last night, 
    nice of it to come back

  • AMCabrera

     the house of ill repute has become the weather channel? 

  • Tronacate

    l silver on the 100hr sma breach….tight stop

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    nice!
    I like /SI on the 240 min chartfailed to continue down an inside bar yesterday which started the sneak up move overnight above a recent diagonal today’s inside bar fail to continue up, has reversed after less than a 1R drop
    i’m waiting on the close, if over 32.09 it will give us a DeMark Setup Bar1 (first day of possible 9 day momo phase up)

  • I Bergamot

     Still not sure about Silver, but bought SIL (miners). They looks to be leading and that is good
     

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    KGC & HL are possibly forming an inside day, tho HL has juice today

  • Curiousmind3861

    As of now VIX is green, but inside the BB, so if it stays green, yet inside the BB, still no signal. Am I reading this correctly?

  • bdoone

    Must be inside BB & lower than yest. close.

  • ronebadger

    re: SPX  we have a descending triangle over the past few days…don’t these usually resolve to the downside?

  • I Bergamot

     Yep, see that. thanks

  • BobbyLow

    Having a pretty good day today so I want to thank Mole for his contributions and for running such an outstanding site.  

    I also want to thank all the participants here who help make this site the best trading site I’ve ever come in contact with in the past 14 Years.  

    Just had to say it.   :)

  • Fearless

    Triangles are often continuation patterns; however, when resolved against the prior trend, the move is often violent in the opposing direction. Given the ZL signal (along with many others), would you like to be caught on the wrong side of a violent move up?

  • AmazingLarry

    Hells to the yes, Bobby!

    I’m still trying to incorporate the NLBL’s into my trading. Looking at 821.88 on the RUT and I think that expires tomorrow? 

  • ridingwaves

    whoa they just pushed vix down at the close…

  • Schwerepunkt

    And now the focus is on Apple.

  • ronebadger

    looks like ‘STEP 2’

  • Schwerepunkt

    NQ tanking . . . pre-Apple.

  • AmazingLarry

    Nice ID on CT sitting just below the 25 and 100.
    Also on coffee sitting quietly on it’s TL off the 150 low.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I C Amazon delivered a turd to your doorstep.

  • AmazingLarry

    Drop n pop. It has to go up, Skynard bought his 666 calls. 😀

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    666 Blocks.
    😉

    EDIT:(6.66 million shares for the math challenged, less slippage, winning!)

  • BobbyLow

    Not sure on the RUT Larry, I haven’t traded it in over a year now.  I’m trying to stick with  currencies, oil and one individual stock in order to maintain what’s left of my sanity.   :)

  • AmazingLarry

    Mother of God. Back to it’s 25 month MA. Look on the bright side, it’s PE may just drop below 700 now. 

  • ridingwaves

    With Amazon orders now taxed I wonder if this wouldn’t be a good short for Xmas season as they might not hit the numbers expressed..

    We bought our large electronic items before they started charging taxes in Sept. 

  • badflightrisk

    Apple as well….halted

  • Skynard

    Whoa, glad that I held on to those SPY 140’S:)

  • Skynard

    Tech bubble just burst:)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    You are right.

  • badflightrisk

    Looks more like a bottom than the beginning of the next leg down for Apple

  • itcomesupinwaves

    I see some trapped (at least for now) AUDJPY longs.

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

     Could this be my first profitable Zero play? So far, so good…

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Not sure, it’s forming a tricky hump pattern I might take a shot slightly higher.. But counter trend so risky.

  • AMCabrera

    my wife is better than me :( She just now cashed out gbp/chf. Nah I kid damn awesome. 

  • AMCabrera

    hey it just struck me. Ok eur/aud is down big time right. Ok long short ratio..This is breaking all sort of retail rules.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Yeah that is strange it looks heavily short.  Are you thinking of taking a long?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/3c05e315-1d53-40e0-98cb-4f2029bcf744/2012-10-25_1935.png
    im thinking about it. are you thinking about it.  I mean im still long eur/usd and I already feel like im being very bad by increasing my stop in this one as I said my stop would be first at 1.2948 then 1.2928 now I have it at 1.2880.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Yeah but I’d rather not try to pick a low here, if there’s more convincing strength I’ll buy a pullback

  • supervilin

    Boss, that 1 min mole – a thing of beauty!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    This bitch is going to tank!!!

  • Skynard

    Would not buy the dip here.

  • Skynard

    Cheers, most recent example of this reaction was just seen in /SI & /GC

  • Skynard

    If the 100 fails, trend line pointing to 1380.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yes and how I would love to see it come back into the triangle and then break the dbl low at 31.5 on big vol

  • Skynard

    Thought for sure we would see the 100 daily. Don’t be surprised, will be long it that happens:)

  • Skynard

    Looking for 38 and a back test of this trend line.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Oh, yes. Sold the last few days, one step at a time:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Skyward are you shorting all in again this hour? ;-p

  • Skynard

    Been building positions past few rallies. My shinning star will be 140 SPY avg @ .23 expire tomorrow (Allot).

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    That weekly sell line has some buyers early adopters

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Dang AUD is selling off early tonight.

  • Skynard

    it will more than likely fail. This distribution has been completed and if that 1380 does not hold it could get evil looking:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow, AUD/JPY going to the dogs…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Bam!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dude! it’s 6am.
    are you up for the day (Fri)?
    I’ve yet to hit the hay.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh yea, I forgot.
    Tee time!
    [AUD/JPY]
    http://s10.postimage.org/ixm094zmf/aud_tee.png

  • Skynard

    Kiwi was also a good short. Outside the 100 hourly upper BB.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Possible, “Oh Shit” here:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    ya, kind of like a bus stop. Lose that and whoa!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    1386.33 currently?
    I like 1391 better. 😉

  • Skynard

    Will be buying SOXL calls over the next few days. Should be on sale:)

  • AMCabrera

    damn since my usd/sek is popped I will give this eur/usd 20 more pips.

  • AMCabrera

    holy. I have to buy eur/jpy here 50 pip stop.

  • I Bergamot

    Bow-off top in DX, or breakout to new highs?
    My method tells me this is the last stand for short. After 2 stop-outs…

  • newbfxtrader

    Joining you senor.

  • newbfxtrader

    Hard to say but looks like everything is at support while /dx is at resistance. So yeah…

  • newbfxtrader

    Aud/usd managed to crawl over 1.03.

  • AMCabrera

    this eur/usd is looking a bit weary to me. I still have my longs in but my usd/sek was popped. Anyhow, I will now only look for 1.3030 since it has fallen so much there is little chance of 1.3100 of happening. Hell this pos has to get past 1.2950 first.

  • I Bergamot

     For this to become a bull-trap, Dx has to reverse right here and hard down. Otherwise, this breakout is as real as it gets. Just looking now. Yes, this applies also ES only in reverse.

  • newbfxtrader

    Should be interesting battle today. Lets see which one holds.

  • newbfxtrader

    yeah. Will take a dead cat bounce and get out.

  • newbfxtrader

    Notice senor cable did not participate in the decline past couple days. Sign of strength me thinks.

  • AMCabrera

    have you seen the order book? pssh. I have never seen anything more ridiculous.

  • I Bergamot

     Nah, will have a cliffhanger, to worry about over the weekend. Just like last week. He-He

  • newbfxtrader

    which one?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’d be shocked if GDP numbers disappoint. Just sayin . . . 

  • AMCabrera

    gbp/usd

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Wow, that sucka climbed out of the hole.