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A Trader’s Guide to Secondary Offerings (Part 1)
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A Trader’s Guide to Secondary Offerings (Part 1)

by MoleNovember 2, 2009

Michael Davey from CD again,

It’s not been a week since our last installment, but I am light in the market right now and presently stuck in a Beijing office space and killing some time; overlooking what is truly an incredible place.

I know the title on this week’s diet didn’t exactly hijack your appetite, but that’s a good thing. Good because you are about the only reader in history to click on such a link and because you might actually benefit.

Don’t do what I do, but  A Trader’s Guide will occasionally present, well, an actual trade.

That’s exaggerating the truth somewhat, since it is more about parameters for an upcoming trade and not any genuine spoon-feeding on my part, but that too is good (since you stay the boss of your own book and my lawyer stays one less day in court).

I generally avoid targets, except for identifying stops, so I certainly am not condoning anyone trading along-side. If this were root canal (I mean all the time, not just the bad days) then I would be very specific as to when and where plunge the spike, but markets are way too fluid for that (need to rinse?). With a volatile market especially, I don’t like cementing any shoes into place, letting ego ride shotgun then with public declarations. I might share with my dog what I think is going to happen next, or I may even elude to it here from time to time (never!). But my dog doesn’t care if I change my mind and I’m training you endlessly not to believe anything I suggest about the future anyhow. If I’m going to point a certain direction, I will almost always keep the feet moving, at least a little – this slows the setting process considerably and I can then jump away with only a couple of cement arches, instead of being signed, sealed and delivered over the side and into the tank.

Some of my blogging peers (who don’t ever read down this far so I am safe now in saying) indeed like to step out on the ledge from time to time (like every day!) and speech into the wind. You might like that ledge as well (I’m being soft just now), but I think we all know the wind does tend to swirl unpredictably from time to time. Once you tout which way it will blow next you simply are not as willing to change that view – had you not made such a declaration (ask me if I’ve learned this the hard way). Recall from your earlier homework, a major key to killing it is to eliminate anything which impedes performance; since a large and under-appreciated aspect to the game is in reducing losses. Unless the market is in a historically low volatility period (not the case just now), try to move with the market – as opposed to predicting what’s coming next. The more volatile a market, the more behind one should trade.

This far down and nothing yet on trading a secondary (nor that actual trade I promised!). Would you believe me if I said my battery was running low? I’m going to make this segment in two parts then – getting right to the topic at hand with the secondary offering.

Cliffnotes: I’m out of battery and the piece is short – read the bloody post you bum.

Homework: Give your dog a kiss because he loves you anyway, and see if you can identify the most powerful Nasdaq stock which will be pricing a secondary sometime soon. First one of you to answer correctly wins a pair of vintage Klic Klacs (just came into my head, but I’ll hold to it; ebay it right to your front door).

Good trading!
CD

Previously in this series:
A Trader’s Guide (Introduction)
A Trader’s Guide to Chasing Ambulances
A Trader’s Guide to Exhaustion


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    What if I have cats?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    depends, are you alergic? if so skip the cat kiss

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I have two grey (russian blue) cats, both rulers of the Universe.
    …no dog

  • malusDiaz

    hmmm I wonder if it's gold breaking out, that leads the way

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    This silver short is working out….
    I find it tough to bet against gold, but silver is the ugly red-headed step child (my apologies to all the ugly red headed step children out there).

    http://screencast.com/t/ZMYeWpgLYBvt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tried keeping a persian that loved me (well it was mutual) but my alergy … it was horrible and mrs. hamster found him a nice house

    FBCM?

    p.s. I don't do news, but looks almost jailbait this one, otherwise you can just PALM the prize

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it was in 2006…

  • malusDiaz

    mmm a 20% up move , the same as the rest of the market has been doing, but ya know, in gold.

    after the last 80% move up was …. another 80% move up.

    sound like 2k and ounce to me. maybe a few months to complete the whole move?

    i wouldn't even know how to really profit from it! ive got a few shares LOL!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    takes time beyond 1300 it would be shorted as hell

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Prepare yourself for what is likely to be the fund-manager chasing, overly cautious treasury bond holder dumping, raging rally to close 2009.

    Long gold
    Long financials
    Long nat gas

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/6ecUaRDDJXG

    Russell futures short.

  • PRSGuitars
  • malusDiaz

    i'd like to see the ATR above .02 : http://screencast.com/t/EHzJGdOs9lVJ

  • Offtimer

    Baidu Inc. is a guess for a secondary offering. Personally watching the cliff tho and expecting the worst for all asset classes.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Not BIDU

  • MariAroma

    What tools did you use to arrive at these conclusions?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Really am running out of battery and doubt I can use a chinese machine here, so going to read.

    Newer issues make the better 2ndary opps, btw
    …that be a hint

    best 4now

  • 9pins

    How 'bout PALM

  • spicestory

    “Unless the market is in a historically low volatility period (not the case just now), try to move with the market – as opposed to predicting what’s coming next. The more volatile a market, the more behind one should trade”

    can't agree more, even i feel a bit strange, when volatility was low the herd seems to be Wrong (bears rallies, dumb money at the top), now when volatility is getting higher the herd seems to be Right (real bears P3 to abyss)

  • MariAroma

    Sol announces “I will have to make two important changes that will affect me and xTrends. First of all, I will make a transition from SP e-minis to more homogen SP futures – big contract to reduce slippage errors.

    “Secondly I will stop posting my trades publicly. However, it doesn't mean I am gone, I will post my thoughts frequently.

    “It has been pleasure and fun, I wish all xTrenders best of luck with their trading.”

    http://www.xtrenders.com/2009/11/beat-goes-on.html

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    any reason in particular for 0.2?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamster rants… on $SPX:$GOLD

    yesterday I discussed 0.97

    it was today's low

    it bounced, but close at 0.98 (below friday's 0.99)

    no decision yet… but holding

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/8RqhvaaDdyFI

    Big trendlines on the Euro

  • Pinball111

    good ,because yesterday was the final straw of taking the mickey out of people > 3 trades he posted were supposedly executed at the exact high or low tick but verifying times and sales the total trades did not match his trade volume.
    I trade between 10 and 100 lots in the e-minies and dozens of times over the years when a trade goes bad and I got stopped out I get slippage which means my stop gets executed partially at a worst price but with SOL´s trades he seems to manage to execute a stop for 800 to 1700 lots at his exact price which I can tell you for sure is B.S.
    I would bet 100,000 USD of my money that his trades are hypothetical and this is a bad joke in selfmarketing.
    Go to http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ and look under Scams of the week for another proof what I have been pointing out above

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks

  • jacksoo

    agree – visited the site for a while but then caught Atilla adjusting posts and detail therein. A case of refashioning his comments/pricing to make them look better. Enough to make me throw in the towel. Don't know what's going on over there but very fishy.

  • Pinball111

    go and take a look at http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/, under SCAMS OF THE WEEK. This boy nailed it.
    I daytrade 10 – 100 e-minis and over the years dozens of times when a trade goes bad and my stop gets hit I receive slippage , mostly 0.25 to 0.50 points , SOL on the other hand seems to manage that his stops of 800 to 1700 lots get always executed at his exact stop price which is nonsense and typical for simulated trading.
    Further to that I noticed yesterday on three of his published so called trades he bought or sold the exact high or low tick… well you might say he got lucky 3 times … hypothetical yes but unfortunately when I looked at times and sales
    the volume at these ticks/prices did not match with the trade volume he claims to be putting on.
    I can guarantee you that this is a hoax ,a bad self marketing strategy and nothing more than simulated trading in a hypothetical account and btw. I have read that some folks have filled out some claim forms for the IRS to look into these records. We will see how this will end but I have a feeling not good.

  • onorio

    EURUSD :

    We seem to be finishing a wave 2/B triangle, and bounce in a 3rd or C today.

    The bearish option is that this move could be a B/X wave and we should start a new down move soon equal 1.5060-1.4680 soon.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3IyIir03q

  • Pinball111

    it is kind of sad that there is always a scam going on somewhere.
    But I have to tell you what always gets me is how easy the general public can be fooled. After reading http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ Scams of the week by accident and looking at his stop executions it is realy not that hard to put 1 and 1 together.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Greetings from collapsing Ireland folks. Not a day goes by at this stage without some new revelation about how fucked we are. The way things are going, when I can finally afford my Ferrari in the New Year, I'm going to be afraid to buy it for fear of being lynched. Unions here are calling for a 65% marginal rate of tax to sort out our problems. Major brain damage.

    Anyway, a quick scan of all my favourite blogs (here, Kennys, Danerics, Xtrends (for commentary) etc etc etc) again shows a very large number of bears in the US, who have been conditioned to expect dip buying, who went to bed expecting a significant pop today and in some cases a massive gap up to like 1070.

    I'm not seeing it, and so far it looks like they will be disappointed when their alarm clocks go off, as Europe doesn't agree, with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all down 1.5%. The huge amount of volatility and intra day reversals of the last few weeks screams top to me. Given the late day recovery (which almost seemed like a victory for the bulls), I can see where people are coming from, but lets put it in context. We recovered a mere 70 points from a 250 point drop. Big deal. But I have been dramatically wrong in the past, and the general concensus seems to be we need one last pop before we plunge.

    I'm not sure if we get it; so I stick with my short-LTBH strategy, and if we do get it, I will add more to my short position……….I just hope that those who are predicting it have the balls to put their money where there mouth is if it happens:)

    Perception is very interesting in trading. I am extremely interested in the general lack of fear among the mainstream about where we are right now (no matter what the vix reading is, that doesn't reflect mainstream thought). There is this perception that this is a raging bull market, and that the market has been on a tear for the last few weeks, with the green shoots and the recession being over and everything.

    Interestingly, the S&P on my screen is trading at 1036……levels it hit back in August. The Dow is trading at 9730, where it was back in early september. In other words, the majors have spent the guts of 2 months going nowhere. Its a bit like everyone heralding 10k, until people remind them that we hit 10k in 1999 or whatever……..the general perception never matches reality.

    And yet bears everywhere are terrified of the market!!!! A market that has gone nowhere in 2 months.

    In my opinion, this is due to the large number of people who are trying to trade every swing, and getting caught out on both sides, creating a short-termism that Market Makers thrive on. We need some strong hands on the short side!!!!!!

  • Trader_Steve

    I nailed xTrends 2 months ago on bullhsit as it looked to me like something was changed and I said their site was bullshit, they were not trading what they said they were, and they were frauds.

    They banned me, but a few peopls stood up and said even with the loss he had taken he was still ug $1.3 million in August.

    Exercising common sense, I had peviously asked why someeone up over $3 million, allegedly, on the year was posting trades for free. That I told them I did this professionally long enough to know it was bullshit ddidn't matter. Like with Obama, they want to believe.

    90%+ have to lose somewhere.

    Steve

  • Trader_Steve

    Having my ancestors hailing from Ireland, I hate to hear what is going on there and I feel this shitty, corrupt government we have here helped cause your problems.

    My advice is to stay away from xTrends. Read below. Many of us think something is VERY fishy there. I questioned them and I was banned in August.

    Steve

  • Pinball111

    you are absolutely right, this is fraud at its best and I am waiting for the climax when the IRS sends some inquiry letters to them to look into these public records, I haven´t taken the time to go over the small print on their web site if it says that this is all hypothetical trades,posts etc.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Steve

    I do nothing based on what xtrends say. I just like to canvas their commentary page as part of my overall sentiment barometer for the blogosphere.

    And don't feel bad about your own governments effect on Ireland. Yes it has had an effect, but we were a disaster waiting to happen, and we fucked things up good and proper ourselves, thats the long and short of it.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Incidentally, is everyone seeing the same thing I'm seeing. i.e. a BIG gap down this am? I know theres normally a recovery from the futures prices to the open but I'm seeing 70+ Dow points and 10 S&P points at this stage?

  • jacksoo

    hi CC – whats happened to house prices out there? Visited about 5 yrs back and was astounded at the prices – seemed everything was a 1m euro!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    as it's early morning maybe someone can take a look and say something on BPSPX…

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-3E9B_4AEFF54F.html

    my take is we're safe till 68 november 11

    but… depends if it breaks lower before that date

  • CorporalCarrot

    Major tankage. Officially prices have fallen by around 30% from the peak, but of course there are massive variations in different price brackets, with some high end stuff having fallen 50%+. And it isn't over.

    Incidentally, the USD is absolutely tearing it up this morning. I'm currently seeing DOW Spreadbet at 9707 and S&P at 1033. FTSE is about to go below the psychological 5k level shortly (although the brits never bothered with the hats :) ) CAC off 2%, DAX off 1.6%.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thank god for small mercies

  • jacksoo

    Must be a lot of people underwater over there. Currently short from 1035 so
    watching things closely.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yeah prices officially back to 2003 levels so anyone buying in the intervening period in negative equity. We don't have the US system here either where if you go bankrupt you can wipe the slate so people just hand the keys back to the bank and suffer a 5 year bad credit score. Debt follows you for life here technically.

  • CorporalCarrot

    EuroUSD new low. Dow quoted 9687!!!! S&P 1030. FTSE 4997. Could be black tuesday at this stage.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    … or people don't know the law (not sure about ireland, but other european countries have personal bankrupcy, you give all you have in a court procedure, including salary, the judge says how mch you keep for surviving and… years latter you're clean)

  • jacksoo

    Luckily for me Australia is immune to the worldwide housing collapse –
    houses still rising at a record clip over here. I think the reality is that
    Aus is about a year or behind on these things – I think they're blind to the
    coming wave.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you're a homeowner, sell and rent something

  • CorporalCarrot

    No here in Ireland our law is different. Technically your personal debts follow you to the grave and your estate. The only saviour here at the moment for people is that there are SO MANY people in the situation that the banks can't pursue everyone.

  • jacksoo

    Gotta be joking mate – I was being cynical – haven't owned a house for
    several years – pulled out of buying in 2005 seeing what was coming – they
    just don't believe it here yet – but they will!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Thats weird jacksoo. Australia is generally held us as an example to the rest of the world for a performing economy that has relatively speaking done very well during the crisis. Interesting to hear the real story on the ground.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sometimes people re sentimental/irrational with their houses

    p.s. did you take a look on bpspx?

  • ultra

    I think your time cycles are highly speculative mate – if you move the first vertical a little to the left to match the actual low, then we could equally have a series of diminishing time periods with the current low as the next.

  • jacksoo

    Whats it showing – have you tgt downside for today? Thru 1015 wd be good.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    do you ever sleep?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    they are, that's why in previous charts just used i ignored then. but look at the bottom oscilator, and count up movements to top zone and throughs to bottom. That's what decided me to keep them and shares

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no direct correlation, just a some bulish index “danger zones” for inversions

    but I would say the 1019 low must be taken out ASAP, in nasdaq it's a gonner since last week

  • jacksoo

    its a one trick pony – China pulls back on commods and everything else is linked – tumbling chain of dominoes. one think that is conveniently ignored when quoting house prices rises is that Aus has the highest rate of multiple home ownership ion the world – for years houses have been bought as investments – sounds good when rising but flip side is when interest rates rise, employment goes up a dumping of house onto the mkt is likely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sometimes, just not everyday

  • ultra

    Even going by the oscillator you should move the first to the left… one to watch I guess.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yeah thats the tragedy thats awaiting us. Our prices have tanked even as interest rates fell because we are completely out of sync with the Euro interest rate cycle. Unless we recover soon (unlikely), once Europe starts raising rates again, it will lead to a second catastrophic wave down in prices.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    +1 for Depeche Mode Quote…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no can do, it's a truncated 5, that's the bottom go to stockcharts and do $BPSPX 3 years 11 months 30 days, then check the details left out of the jpg, by the form you'll agree (I think, but DO CHECK and give your opinion, i'm not selling anything, I want critics and improvements.. btw some of the trendlines are speculative and though with 3 points aprox.3 points are reachable through other competing lows)

    use MA 13 please check how often it does (not) give false reversion (very few indeed)

    and thanks for looking into this

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    a blasphemous rumours fan? Love the lyrics though Some great reward was still a bit sub-par

    p.s. involuntary quote, but yes, I'm a fan from their very beggining (though best phase would be Black Celebration Music for the Masses and Violator). Saw them in concert when they toured songs of faith and devotion, had tickets to see them again this year … 2 days before the concert dave blew his foot)

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Was worried that you wouldn't get it.. board is filled with pups, would have been lost on V-8…

    And yes I love me some Black Celebration although it isn't as good as I remember it in retrospect but The Queen is Dead is.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and if a double decker bus, crashes into us
    to die by your side
    is such an heavenly way to die

    but that light coughed himself off stage the other day.

    they're old, we're old

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    It seems a little early in the game for the Dollar carry trade to unwind, does anyone think that this is starting to happen? If it does Mole will be spot on about the Mother of all Waves Down. Errr…When it does.

  • ultra

    EMA13 seems to work well, aye. And you are doing EW count on bpspx? Sorry it's still a bit early for me lol.

  • ultra

    yeah he's ok now apparently. read about it in the paper – apparently the doctor told him not to smile – mozza's somewhat predictable answer: “I don't”

    lol

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    patern counts, and sometimes cross-counting with EW on spx

    still crude an hypothetical

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did he ever?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Not EWT and more simple trends, but DXY has broken its 50 day EMA for the first time since April. I wonder could this lead to a major short covering rally in the USD.

    FTSE, DOW and S&P Futures all at new overnight lows as far as I can see.

  • fuw

    Major breach in Euro/USD

    http://screencast.com/t/jQUm0c8hrI

    *triangle breakout down
    *breach of major long term trend line
    *moved out of chop zone
    *next potential support in the 1.455-1.460 area.

  • tradejane

    Gotta love the spike on /DX at 11 CET. Looks real too, has the volume to prove it.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I guess Xtrends is no longer posting their trades. WIth all the blogs I follow, seems as if everyone is expecting a pop around 1020-1025. That makes me think it may never materialize. Or maybe a small pop just to stop out shorts and trap bulls.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Its kind of humourous perusing the various bear blogs this morning. Instead of joy I'm seeing fear and bewilderment, people trying to find “the news” that caused this drop, from people who were expecting that one last bounce before they really piled on the shorts.

    The say the market will do whatever screws the biggest number of people, and this certainly is it. Dips buyers who believed yesterday's late rally and bears who went long expecting the 1070 range again in order to fullfill a magic rooftop pattern or whatever.

    I think a huge amount of TA breaks down at turning points and only resolves itself with the benefit of hindsight.

  • CorporalCarrot

    The problem over there is the trading “record” has led to too many people believing Attila has some sort of crystal ball, and taking his word as Gospel. Look at yesterday evenings posts where he stated with some certainty that the market would gap up 30-40 points today. Now anyone can get something wrong, and he called yesterdays turning points with stunning accuracy, but the people on that site who followed him blindly and closed out shorts have now potentially lost a ton of money from it.

  • ultra

    Flight to garbage update – it would appear that, although the GBP looks to have seen its high against the greenback at roughly the same time as EURUSD topped, this – hilariously – also appears to have marked the high of GBPEUR, thus putting the good old €uro precisely where in the pecking order right now??

  • fuw

    I agree. It's looking very good, and I'm glad to be short. On a pat-my-own-back note I'm very satisfied with my “indecision zone”, which I called before we got there, and it has been working very well to help me keep a cool head over the last weeks. Hopefully my next whim will work as successfully as this one, but experience says probably not.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone got any views on Shamazon? I bought a bunch of April 2010 $100 puts back when it was somewhere over $120. I felt at the time it was the most no-brainer short I had ever seen, given that yawning chasm of a gap since earnings. Looking good for tankage today.

  • Nova358

    Agreed think it is too early. Seems more like a “hiccup” in electronic markets. Price action is likely to be all as usual in days and weeks that follow. See comments over on marketdatatrader.com regarding the topic.

  • fuw

    Longer term view to puts things into perspective:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rtJj1M23PhtV

  • ultra

    Yeah, not really sure on this one – have been watching from the sidelines so far – could be in w4 prior to the final high on the apocryphal bounce we're all expecting (the new Godot lol) as hasn't really dropped as fast as you might expect if it had topped already. In fact quite the reverse – has been standing its ground rather steadfastly, like a lot of tech stocks you might expect to be nosediving right now such as BIDU etc.

  • Chop it up

    Why are you glad to be “short”??

  • Woden

    Hmm Perhaps an explanation
    10:35 GMT
    Dollar index DXZ9: all trades above 77,50 will be cancelled by the exchange due a “fat finger” error which triggered a 6% upside spike.

  • Chop it up

    Why are you glad to be “short”. (Assuming you are referring to being short DX)

  • Chop it up

    Why are you glad to be “short”. (Assuming you are referring to being short DX)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yeah, thats why I went out as far as April strike. I will give up some profit if the move occurs really quickly, but I have insurance & time in case theres a final push northwards. I'm up 20% so far on the position, and although it could easily reverse, I simply can't imagine that it won't fill that gap sometime between now and April.

  • fuw

    Sorry for being unclear. I'm glad to be short in the equity market (now similar to being short euro/usd, which it what I chart). I don't trade FX, but use it as guidance.

  • innatedc

    +1…..abso-fucking-lutely agree. Everyone is Mentally masturbating themselves and they are getting hair on their palms.

  • Chop it up

    Thats bullshit – I made other trades based on this spike….are they cancelling those trades too….grrrr.

  • tradejane

    We get those in equities too. I call them “It was just a dream, go back to bed” moments.

  • Iguanadon

    The bears have been shocked so many times when they've tried to grab the banana (not a masturbation euphamism) that even when someone tries to hand them a piece of food they're jittery and terrified of being shocked again.

    I agree that the burning of “buy the dip” folks is what needs to happen if it hasn't begun already. And in the meantime the bears will keep bailing because they're afraid of getting burned again.

  • tradejane

    Michael, I can tell that reading your posts is going to benefit my ongoing English studies as well as my trading. I might finally learn how to avoid sentences that end in a preposition. Your homework sounds intriguing but I don't have a dog. I do have hamsters and they would bite me if I tried to stare at NASDAQ stocks too long.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    The Berkshire news may cause a rally at the open. Anybody covering shorts in the premarket? I felt confident short after seeing Asia and Europe selloff, but this news has me a little worried. Talk about propaganda garbage, WB calls this “an all-in bet on America”. This is, of course, from the guy that didn't see any of the 2008 crash coming and said in Oct '08 to buy American prior to a 25% further drop in the mkt.

  • bobthehorse

    I am a buyer of this market. I think we make new highs, earnings momemtum is too strong and there is going to be a tidal wave of liquidity out of fixed income markets into equities when the Fed say they will reload on QE (which they will tomorrow). I like this site, there are some knowledgeable people on it but in the last two days everyone's been too busy jerking themselves off to do any analysis. There is a big unwind going on at the moment by some large macro funds because they got themselves in a crowded short vega position on some EMEA FX but I would not mistake it for the start of P3. If that is going to happen, Q1 next year is a better bet.

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up
    The move away from risky assets continues – except for Gold. Guess we’ll have to wait for the margin calls to put pressure there. Honestly, I have no opinion on gold, and I’m not interested in it for trading.
    At 7:40 AM, ES is down 9 points from Monday. This takes SPX down to 1036ish – which is just above the lower Bollinger. SPX has not breached any levels that would indicate a definite trend down, yet. The last low was 1020, which is the line in the sand for a possible trend change – and 1014 at the 62% FIB is a viable target for a bounce – given where support has been in the past for each run up. Scenarios are still valid. My surprise is that it is one of the red scenarios that seems to be in play (gun-shy bear).
    ES headed south around 2AM EST, which may be the Europe open now that we’re off of DST? Support has come from the pivot at 1026.75ish..
    SUMMARY:
    Weakness in SPX and USD strength still have not set lower lows, so the upward channel is still intact. SPX needs to breach 1020 for the lower low to be put in, and open lower the next day (TD yadah yadah yadah) to not be considered an underthrow of some kind.

    I just want to caution everyone about the TAF maturity on Thursday. This may just be coincidence, but the FED B/S only gets published (for WED) on Thursday after close – so it is very difficult to see what is happening to the financial system liquidity from the MBS program. I believe that the TAF maturity is just over $40 bb, which is nothing to sneeze at. If it is not renewed /replaced then there could be more pressure on the equity markets.

    Equity
    Asia is red, Europe is red. The news that RBS and Lloyds bank are to be bailed out again with $51 bb from UK taxpayers is weighing on stocks, and seems to have started a move back into USD. I would look for the TNX to fall (10 year yield index) on a simplistic level if this is the case.
    The only DAX sectors that are green are Health Care and Consumer services – go figure. Health care is up over 3% with over 2/3 of the member stocks in the green.
    ES pivots:
    R2: 1061.75 – This seems to have been the ceiling overnight from the 29th to the 30th of October. ES was unable to punch through it then.
    R1: 1050.25 – ES came up here briefly yesterday after open but got punched down rather hard
    Neutral: 1038.25 – Looks like this was a floor until Europe opened. It might act as resistance now, against any rally attempt
    S1: 1027 – Current floor after the Europe /UK inspired drop.
    S2: 1014.75 – just coincidence that this is the same number as the SPX 62% FIB. Remember that ES is about 3 – 4 points below SPX at the present time. This is just above the last low (daily chart) on October 2nd, 2009 (at 1012). We need to get below this for a break of the upward trend. – even though we are currently below the trend line that starts at last March (2009) and was touched again in July (Same as SPX ULTRAVIOLET trend line from yesterdays SPX daily chart).

    FX
    USD is up about ½ cent. CAD, EUR, and GBP are down. I think that everyone is worried about the Euro-banks since they are being tarred with the same brush as the UK banks. In a crisis, all correlations go to “1”. Heh.
    EUR fell at same time as ES. There is a gap from 3 – 3:30AM which might be a technical glitch. EUR continued to fall as stops were triggered at 1.4675 /80 according to ForexLive. Negative news on the UK banks seems to have affected stocks in general and the risk trade is out of favour today. A US custody bank was said to be selling EUR on the big move down. As well, a large Swiss bank is supposed to have issued a sell EUR call with target at 1.42 and stop at 1.4865 – apparently they went short at the breach of 1.4865 which might explain some of the pressure.
    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.4928
    R1: 1.4852 – around where the Swiss bank started going short
    Neutral: 1.4769 – where the 3AM waterfall started
    S1: 1.4692 – hot knife through butter on the fall. Hasn’t been support in quite a while
    S2: 1.4609 – Haven’t touched this yet as some TD support indicators seem to be working to keep EUR in a 1.4666 – 1.4626 range.

    If it’s not clear what I think, my opinion is that we will be going down to 1014 on the SPX (around 1010 on the ES) and then bouncing. I don’t know if it will be a little bounce to the underside of the SPX trend line that began in July 2009, or back up to test the underside of the major trend line from the March lows – but a bounce is inevitable unless there is some major financial catastrophe.
    Manage your risk and use stops to protect gains.

    Cheers.

    P.s. Not much data today:
    10AM Factory orders 0.3% exp vs -0.3% prior
    17:00 ABC consumer confidence
    Today sometime: Total and domestic vehicle sales

    See here for more:
    http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calenda

  • tradejane

    Thank you gmak. I'm always impressed by the detail, are you sure you're not German?

    Beiersdorf and Fresenius were up because of earnings. BMW had them too but they did not impress. Their stock is down the most today.

    UBS and other negative news cast a large shadow over the two major banks but they appear to be bottoming. The DAX looks like it's trying to bounce from here. Needs to go above 5.426 to confirm.

    PS. Gold is a risky asset?

  • bergs

    After visiting the various EW sites( Alphahorn, Daneric, Kenny) I have to revise to minute wave {1} being the top count.

    http://screencast.com/t/kqNxkcMz

  • CorporalCarrot

    I think any Buffet related euphoria may fade today and if not, present better shorting opportunities.

  • Nightwind

    Thanks bergs

  • gmak

    I'm not sure how to classify gold. I just included it because it went up, even though the USD rose – suggesting that there are other forces at work for the value (at the present time) other than a “commodity” label.
    I'm not German. :-) – although I love the German attention to detail, especially in engineering.
    On the other hand, I don't feel that there is enough detail in what I right. I'm just trying to refine to what I think might be important to know before making any decisions. It is a work in progress. ……

    Thanks for the DAX insight!

     

    ________________________________

  • nyxjf

    But then again, those trades were posted real time.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Any thoughts on if the RBS & Lloyds news was already mainly priced in?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Anyone have a high price so far for the US dollar index? My futures data looks corrupted. I have a high of 77.50 for the Dec contract

  • tradejane

    It's very interesting to see gold, the dollar and the treasuries all green together. This could mean a positive change in the market direction but it could signal the beginnings of a panic.

    I'll have to research this, as I don't remember too clearly, but didn't Buffet make similar moves last year – just before the market *really* started to wash out?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    If my futures data is right, the $ moved from 76.5 to 77.5 in about 30 minutes starting at about 3:30 a.m. eastern.
    Maybe the time the Eur bank news hit?
    Gold feel about $6 during that time but rallied right back up.

  • skynard

    Thought that P3 was going to be something signifigant or more violent. This sell-off seems like a slow bleeding process. Any thoughts?

  • skynard

    Unless of coarse we need to see a wave 3 come into the market.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It is just starting. Look at any other wave and notice that right at the top, wave 1 does a really choppy drop, before finally letting go…

    Skål!

  • tradejane

    TOS shows a spike to 81.345 which was later discounted as “one of those things.”

    I'm pretty sure the bank news were priced in as the ones I'm watching did not make any new lows.

  • ablebonus

    It briefly hit 81.35, but then this came out:

    10:35 GMT
    Dollar index DXZ9: all trades above 77,50 will be cancelled by the exchange due a “fat finger” error which triggered a 6% upside spike.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm still not sure that in all other indexes, where you have “iii” could be I, and “iv” could very well be II. $INDU, is not following the same pattern, and the only bearish way to count it is a series of I-II, i-iis…

    Skål!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Appreciate the response.
    I need to move away from MF global , no such info from them

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    GO MA… Glad I held my shorts on that shit…

    Skål!

  • skynard

    Definately have been selling the rips here.

  • AS2009

    Wow – look at that spike on X – touched the 61.8% of the last move down … moving up more .. Berk / Greg thoughts on this ?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Sweet short so far, had silver shorted too…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm not worried about X til it gets to 36.5… Then I will pull one unit off…

    Skål!

  • Bart7

    UUP stopped right near the 50 day MA and reversed so far. But broke above downtrend line from June…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    That spike was ended by the exchange at 77.50 almost right at the 2sweeties long reversal that Mole posted yesterday

  • AS2009

    Hit the 100 MA (10 min), 200 MA (5 min) … watching carefully … with an entry on @ 33.9 this would not be good for my nov 33 puts

  • dollar

    10:00 AM Sept. Factory Orders: +0.9% vs. consensus of +0.8% and -0.8% last month. Ex-defense +0.7% vs. -0.7% prior. Ex-transport +0.8% vs. +0.4 prior.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    That reminds me….I have some WAT puts for November that I ought to close or roll.

  • bobthehorse

    I have an ESZ9 target of 1064 for today

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Same point of view here….their latest profit chart is absurd. I followed enough to know there were some little white lies.

    Still…I do like some of the unique material that Attila does come up with. Total credit charts — for one example.

  • bobthehorse

    1044 is a trigger point for further upside

  • molecool

    LOL – he sounds like me right before (3) of {1}.

  • AS2009

    Need to see X close below 34.5 otherwise this is bullish consolidation …

  • nakedoptions
  • molecool

    All news is already 'priced in'. The news don't matter – ignore them.

  • gmak

    I don't use Buffet as an indicator. I do agree with you about Gold, USD, and treasuries – that when they move together it is the beginning of a wave of negative sentiment. The degree of “panic” would depend on the degree of leverage and where the stops are in the equity markets.

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    But the data is from September and yesterday's ISM data showed a drop in October's orders – just to keep things in perspective.

  • nakedoptions

    Buffet is just another asshole dip buyer.

  • gmak

    Can't read those charts. However:

    EUR on the 3 min chart just put in a higher high off the bottom. 1.4634 is the most recent low, and the “LOD” is 1.4628;

    I see s higher high and a higher low which suggests EUR is moving up in a channel.

    30 min chart shows that we are bounded by 1.4670 on the top and it looks like a bearish wedge or flag forming – since the higher high was only .0001 higher. heh.

    Still too early to tell about a bounce. EUR still looks range bound. There are a bunch of buy stops above 1.4670, so traders are using that as the line in the sand for movement off the bottom. Buyers are coming in at the bottom.

  • gregn

    I put a trailing stop on my X puts yesterday around 3ish because I had to leave and the stop was hit. 20% profit, I should have sold at LOD, I was up 50%.

  • gmak

    SPX:

    Monday's bar was rejected by BIG YELLOW (the trend line that starts at the SPX high of 1557+ and touches again at 1080 in Sep, with May 2008 looking like an overthrow). Today's has been supported by the lower daily Bollinger and we are sitting on the lower trend line (the dotted one in my yesterday's chart) after putting a pin through the last couple of sessions.

    If we don't get above big yellow on any move up, then we are likely to test the FIB at 1014. It doesn't have to happen today. BIG YELLOW is around SPX = 1050;

    There is no indication of direction or trend yet from today's level., IMVHO.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12356

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We are about to reverse a multi-month uptrend with a multi-month downtrend, what time frame are you looking at? I am definitely trading on days and NOTHING shorter than 60s here. But that could just be me…

    Skål!

  • AS2009

    Nice :)

    Me sitting on a loss right now – purchase 1.45 .. right now at 1.17 … 34.50 seems to be holding – what are your thoughts on this one ?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    LIAR

    hamsters don't bite for that reason

  • gmak

    That's RICH dip buyer, to you. :-)

    ________________________________

  • tradejane

    LOL. Well, mine do. They know that I lend up losing money whenever I get tempted by unfamiliar stocks. 😀

  • AS2009

    Berk – I am looking to do a swing trade too … I cannot day trade …

    However with Nov 33 puts bought near 33.75 @ 1.45 this is also a big turn – these puts are now down 30% … so if this goes to 36.5 – they will be worthless. If so, then rather close and re-enter on a safer entry point.

    I missed the one yesterday am with you and Greg – entered on break of 34, but no confirmation … will welcome your thoughts …

  • gregn

    There was another 38.2 retrace for your amusement: http://screencast.com/t/t2Y1ved9 I was planning on reloading at that level, but I couldn't get to my computer in time.

  • tradejane

    My skills in TA are very poor, so I have to rely on observations and risk management to get an edge.

    I think if this were a “positive” change of market direction, the other metals would have been up too. But in panics such metals not count in the way that gold does.

    DAX remains weak, I wanted to see it break 5.426 for me to consider lightening up on my short ETF but it hasn't done that yet.

    That said, I do respect the support that UYG has at $5. I won't be adding to US-shorts until it breaks that support.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Okay… Here is some bad trading advice from me, and you will need to know where it works, and where it doesn't. I am looking for a TT. A long-term break-out, and plan to be in this trade a MINIMUM of 3 weeks.
    1st) I feel you on Nov puts. That does make a big deal.
    2nd) Look at your time. Not just days left in the trade, but look at what that particular equity can do in that time frame. Last 2 down moves for X dropped it 21% (11points) in 9 days. The other 27% (12points) in 18 days.

    Your front months only have 17 days left, but all you need is 9 trending days to more tan capitalize on this trade. Just saying that a modest push up is to be expected and (should this be P3) can be quickly retraced. However, I have a lot of experience adding to positions like this rather than cutting them. YOU will have to make that choice for yourself, but all is not lost just because your options are down 30%.

    Hang in there. And if my advice doesn't make sense, PLEASE don't follow it…

    Skål!

  • gmak

    Looks like the stops got swept in EUR above 1.4670.  SPX is following, can't see DAX (on a 10 min time delay). EUR will probably come back down once it hits the pivot at 1.4692; cause it's outside the Bollinger.

    ________________________________

  • gregn

    X is definitely trending downwards. I recommend not buying options that have less than 30 days to expiration. I like short term trading, but I have been using Decembers for at least a week now. I have never done this, but you could look into rolling your puts over to next month.

  • tradejane

    DAX is trying another attempt to run to its pivot. (5375) Not getting any confirmation from the banks, though… Still, FOMC meetings are nothing to sneeze at…

    Ah, decisions, decisions. :)

  • AS2009

    Yes – that makes sense – thanks Berk / Greg … I am watching 35.15 – 35.19 on the 10 min / 30 min /60min and this seems to be a key area … so watching closely …

    Will welcome your inputs as we move ahead …

  • AS2009

    I think I am smart enough to add to position – but ave burnt myself doing it in the past … so trying to force myself to say, if its not working, then get out – watch for re-entry again :)

    Hopefully I will get to your stage one day – hopefully soon :)

  • gregn

    It is, as evident by that gap on the 29th.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, I have done myself a bit of damage that way, but we should be on the forefront of a large trend.

    Trade based upon your rules…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    ABout time for the big selloff

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Pleased to be of any assistance – thanks for the nice words.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    If my futures data is right, the $ moved from 76.5 to 77.5 in about 30 minutes starting at about 3:30 a.m. eastern.
    Maybe the time the Eur bank news hit?
    Gold feel about $6 during that time but rallied right back up.

  • skynard

    Thought that P3 was going to be something signifigant or more violent. This sell-off seems like a slow bleeding process. Any thoughts?

  • skynard

    Unless of coarse we need to see a wave 3 come into the market.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It is just starting. Look at any other wave and notice that right at the top, wave 1 does a really choppy drop, before finally letting go…

    Skål!

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    TOS shows a spike to 81.345 which was later discounted as “one of those things.”

    I'm pretty sure the bank news were priced in as the ones I'm watching did not make any new lows.

  • ablebonus

    It briefly hit 81.35, but then this came out:

    10:35 GMT
    Dollar index DXZ9: all trades above 77,50 will be cancelled by the exchange due a “fat finger” error which triggered a 6% upside spike.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm still not sure that in all other indexes, where you have “iii” could be I, and “iv” could very well be II. $INDU, is not following the same pattern, and the only bearish way to count it is a series of I-II, i-iis…

    Skål!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Appreciate the response.
    I need to move away from MF global , no such info from them

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    GO MA… Glad I held my shorts on that shit…

    Skål!

  • skynard

    Definately have been selling the rips here.

  • AS2009

    Wow – look at that spike on X – touched the 61.8% of the last move down … moving up more .. Berk / Greg thoughts on this ?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Sweet short so far, had silver shorted too…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm not worried about X til it gets to 36.5… Then I will pull one unit off…

    Skål!

  • Bart7

    UUP stopped right near the 50 day MA and reversed so far. But broke above downtrend line from June…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    That spike was ended by the exchange at 77.50 almost right at the 2sweeties long reversal that Mole posted yesterday

  • AS2009

    Hit the 100 MA (10 min), 200 MA (5 min) … watching carefully … with an entry on @ 33.9 this would not be good for my nov 33 puts

  • dollar

    10:00 AM Sept. Factory Orders: +0.9% vs. consensus of +0.8% and -0.8% last month. Ex-defense +0.7% vs. -0.7% prior. Ex-transport +0.8% vs. +0.4 prior.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    That reminds me….I have some WAT puts for November that I ought to close or roll.

  • bobthehorse

    I have an ESZ9 target of 1064 for today

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Same point of view here….their latest profit chart is absurd. I followed enough to know there were some little white lies.

    Still…I do like some of the unique material that Attila does come up with. Total credit charts — for one example.

  • bobthehorse

    1044 is a trigger point for further upside

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – he sounds like me right before (3) of {1}.

  • AS2009

    Need to see X close below 34.5 otherwise this is bullish consolidation …

  • nakedoptions
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    All news is already 'priced in'. The news don't matter – ignore them.

  • gmak

    I don't use Buffet as an indicator. I do agree with you about Gold, USD, and treasuries – that when they move together it is the beginning of a wave of negative sentiment. The degree of “panic” would depend on the degree of leverage and where the stops are in the equity markets.

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    But the data is from September and yesterday's ISM data showed a drop in October's orders – just to keep things in perspective.

  • nakedoptions

    Buffet is just another asshole dip buyer.

  • gmak

    Can't read those charts. However:

    EUR on the 3 min chart just put in a higher high off the bottom. 1.4634 is the most recent low, and the “LOD” is 1.4628;

    I see s higher high and a higher low which suggests EUR is moving up in a channel.

    30 min chart shows that we are bounded by 1.4670 on the top and it looks like a bearish wedge or flag forming – since the higher high was only .0001 higher. heh.

    Still too early to tell about a bounce. EUR still looks range bound. There are a bunch of buy stops above 1.4670, so traders are using that as the line in the sand for movement off the bottom. Buyers are coming in at the bottom.

  • gregn

    I put a trailing stop on my X puts yesterday around 3ish because I had to leave and the stop was hit. 20% profit, I should have sold at LOD, I was up 50%.

  • gmak

    SPX:

    Monday's bar was rejected by BIG YELLOW (the trend line that starts at the SPX high of 1557+ and touches again at 1080 in Sep, with May 2008 looking like an overthrow). Today's has been supported by the lower daily Bollinger and we are sitting on the lower trend line (the dotted one in my yesterday's chart) after putting a pin through the last couple of sessions.

    If we don't get above big yellow on any move up, then we are likely to test the FIB at 1014. It doesn't have to happen today. BIG YELLOW is around SPX = 1050;

    There is no indication of direction or trend yet from today's level., IMVHO.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12356

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We are about to reverse a multi-month uptrend with a multi-month downtrend, what time frame are you looking at? I am definitely trading on days and NOTHING shorter than 60s here. But that could just be me…

    Skål!

  • AS2009

    Nice :)

    Me sitting on a loss right now – purchase 1.45 .. right now at 1.17 … 34.50 seems to be holding – what are your thoughts on this one ?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    LIAR

    hamsters don't bite for that reason

  • gmak

    That's RICH dip buyer, to you. :-)

    ________________________________

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    LOL. Well, mine do. They know that I lend up losing money whenever I get tempted by unfamiliar stocks. 😀

  • AS2009

    Berk – I am looking to do a swing trade too … I cannot day trade …

    However with Nov 33 puts bought near 33.75 @ 1.45 this is also a big turn – these puts are now down 30% … so if this goes to 36.5 – they will be worthless. If so, then rather close and re-enter on a safer entry point.

    I missed the one yesterday am with you and Greg – entered on break of 34, but no confirmation … will welcome your thoughts …

  • gregn

    There was another 38.2 retrace for your amusement: http://screencast.com/t/t2Y1ved9 I was planning on reloading at that level, but I couldn't get to my computer in time.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    My skills in TA are very poor, so I have to rely on observations and risk management to get an edge.

    I think if this were a “positive” change of market direction, the other metals would have been up too. But in panics such metals not count in the way that gold does.

    DAX remains weak, I wanted to see it break 5.426 for me to consider lightening up on my short ETF but it hasn't done that yet.

    That said, I do respect the support that UYG has at $5. I won't be adding to US-shorts until it breaks that support.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Okay… Here is some bad trading advice from me, and you will need to know where it works, and where it doesn't. I am looking for a TT. A long-term break-out, and plan to be in this trade a MINIMUM of 3 weeks.
    1st) I feel you on Nov puts. That does make a big deal.
    2nd) Look at your time. Not just days left in the trade, but look at what that particular equity can do in that time frame. Last 2 down moves for X dropped it 21% (11points) in 9 days. The other 27% (12points) in 18 days.

    Your front months only have 17 days left, but all you need is 9 trending days to more tan capitalize on this trade. Just saying that a modest push up is to be expected and (should this be P3) can be quickly retraced. However, I have a lot of experience adding to positions like this rather than cutting them. YOU will have to make that choice for yourself, but all is not lost just because your options are down 30%.

    Hang in there. And if my advice doesn't make sense, PLEASE don't follow it…

    Skål!

  • gmak

    Looks like the stops got swept in EUR above 1.4670.  SPX is following, can't see DAX (on a 10 min time delay). EUR will probably come back down once it hits the pivot at 1.4692; cause it's outside the Bollinger.

    ________________________________

  • gregn

    X is definitely trending downwards. I recommend not buying options that have less than 30 days to expiration. I like short term trading, but I have been using Decembers for at least a week now. I have never done this, but you could look into rolling your puts over to next month.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    DAX is trying another attempt to run to its pivot. (5375) Not getting any confirmation from the banks, though… Still, FOMC meetings are nothing to sneeze at…

    Ah, decisions, decisions. :)

  • AS2009

    Yes – that makes sense – thanks Berk / Greg … I am watching 35.15 – 35.19 on the 10 min / 30 min /60min and this seems to be a key area … so watching closely …

    Will welcome your inputs as we move ahead …

  • AS2009

    I think I am smart enough to add to position – but ave burnt myself doing it in the past … so trying to force myself to say, if its not working, then get out – watch for re-entry again :)

    Hopefully I will get to your stage one day – hopefully soon :)

  • gregn

    It is, as evident by that gap on the 29th.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, I have done myself a bit of damage that way, but we should be on the forefront of a large trend.

    Trade based upon your rules…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    ABout time for the big selloff

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Pleased to be of any assistance – thanks for the nice words.

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