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Advancing Positions

by The MoleFebruary 6, 2017

Okay, so let’s get this out of the way once and for all. I can totally understand if you don’t care that much about American Football and may just have better things to do than spend your weekends watching 22 guys in helmets and spandex have at each other. But if the annual Super Bowl doesn’t make your heart jump at least a little then you may as well just buy yourself a ticket to 1980 Soviet Russia and stay there. Alternatively just move your ass to Berkeley.

Now here’s the inside track about what really happened yesterday during the first half of the Super Bowl – you heard it here first: As Tom Brady is now approaching NFL methuselah status at the ripe age of 39 years Bill Belichick was getting a bit antsy last year. After all a lot of money is on the line for the franchise. So shortly after the last season Bill convinced Gisele to secretly collect some of Tom’s precious man-juice which then was quickly dispensed to a loosely regulated Chinese biolab with flexible ethical standards. Their science nerds promptly went to work and within a few months succeeded in growing a perfect Clone Brady ready for action. A few more months were spent training it via some spinning virtual reality contraption like the one you may remember from Lawnmower man. The clone was even placed in Gisele’s bedroom one night and she never knew the difference.

And that’s in fact is the miserable creature you saw hobbling across the field in the first half of yesterday’s game. Of course we all know that not even 21st century Chinese science is capable of producing anything at the level of a real American built and bred Tom Brady. What they had delivered instead was a cheap knock off which spent most of the first half scratching his balls and drooling all over his face mask. Now Belichick watched the unfolding train wreck in horror and then used the halftime break to lure Clone Brady into the locker room and then managed to drown it in a toilet bowl. He then rushed to revive the real Tom who he had put in cryogenic stasis a few days ago and quickly briefed him on the situation. Tom was understandingly upset about the whole thing and still a bit drowsy from the procedure. But after Bill promised him to have a few more Giseles cloned he happily agreed to finish the second half of the game. And the rest of course is now football history.

mark_wahlberg

In somewhat related news we have just now received live footage from Mark Wahlberg who had attended the game but for dubious reasons didn’t stick around to see his favorite team’s spectacular comeback. Ouch…

2017-02-06_spoos_update

On the trading front we’re actually not doing so shabby either as things are looking increasingly green this Monday and some time needs to be spent on advancing our positions. Let’s start with the E-Mini campaign – it is starting to looking solid and your stop can now be advanced to 2277.

2017-02-06_gold_update

Gold is off the races – what a perfect entry we got there! Advance your stop to break/even and let’s see if she can close above that 100-day SMA near 1230.

2017-02-06_crude_entry2

Crude unfortunately has not moved much but I think the entry is still solid if you want it. For everyone else leave your ISL intact as shown on the chart.

2017-02-06_ZB_update

Bonds are rocketing higher as well – here you can move your stop to break/even or even a few ticks above it. I would however suggest you keep it below 150’16 just to be on the safe side.

2017-02-06_soybeans_update

Soybeans is the one that got away – I was waiting for a drop to 1025 and we only touched 1027. Bugger! But that’s how it goes – you can’t get them all, but you can try!

2017-02-06_XOP_update

XOP – say no more! It’s rocking and rolling as planned. Perfect execution there near that spike low on the daily. It’s facing some weekly resistance si let’s see how it plays out. Again you can advance your stop to near break/even.

2017-02-06_EURUSD_update

EUR/USD is the one that crashed and burned – so not that you think we never post the losers. I found it rather compelling where it failed however and that put quite a damper on what looked like a trend candidate. I think there is a case to be made for another long entry but not before it touches 1.066.

2017-02-06_GBPUSD_watch

Cable is on the watch list for a long setup but I need to first see a floor pattern on the short term panel. Will keep you updated on this one.

2017-02-06_AUDUSD_watch

AUD/USD also on our watch list – I would very much like to see some sort of spike low or retest of 0.763 where we’ve got the 100-hour SMA. Obviously this beast is trending and that would be a great opportunity to get on the bus.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Edd

    Happy night in the Low household. No doubt about it Brady is the GOAT. Congrats Pats, thanks for an awesome game

  • Yoda

    LOL, I read it first here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe

  • ridingwaves

    Clone man, the sequel…

    Congrats to Patriots and their fans..

    one play really turned that game around and changed momo rapidly..

    like a bio tech stock or something

  • Yoda

    Edelman’s catch was the turning point IMO

  • Yoda

    FYI, Gartman’s covered shorts.

  • BobbyLow

    I slept for about 2 hours last night. I went from feelings of terrible disapointment for 3 and 1/2 Quarters of last nights SB to feelings of total jubalation at the end of the last 10 minutes of the game that ended in OT. After this happened, I was so juiced up that there was no way I could even think about going to sleep.

    Tom Brady is a clone of himself. He trains almost every day all year. He really takes care of his body and a special treat for him is Avacado Ice Cream if you could imagine such a thing. He has been and still is a proven winner who can make clutch plays when the game is on the line.

    I agree that Edelmans catch was “one” of the turning points of the game. But so was Hightower’s Strip Sack. Amendola and Mitchell made key catches as well and James White was really special in this game. Pundit Retired Wide Receiver Diva, Keyshawn Johnson said that “the Patriot Wide Receivers couldn’t make the starting roster on the rest of the teams of the NFL”. LMAO! And let’s not forget that the Patriot Defense stopped Atlanta when it mattered the most.

    As a life long Patriot Fan, I am ecstatic and this win is special for a lot of reasons. It also qualify’s as a check off from my “Bucket List”. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    too much Drama. Can we move on, please?
    😉

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cp_LCPAXEAADyLd.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Sounds like you were the guy the placed the Million Dollar Bet on Atlanta. I get a kick out of all the Brady haters. This guy has taken so many hits during his career and with the exception of 2008 has only missed one game due to injury.

    Eat you heart out buddy. :)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Proud to say, I have no clue about the beginning of this post. You are right – at least one of us (me) have better things to do than watching over-hyped drugs-laden millionaires play a child’s game.

    Specifically, I watched 1988 ‘Working Girl’ with my daughter – a great movie about American Capitalism without snowflakes and pederasts. Personal growth and achievement, hard work and perseverance… and Melanie Griffith + Harrison Ford Having each other… and women that dress and look feminine… and hair…
    BTW, I remember 1980 Olympics like it was yesterday. They actually gathered all the bums and dumped them beyond 100km zone around all big cities, locked up all the hoodlums they could find and cleaned up streets so well – people wished it was olympics every day.

    and then I got to a ‘trading’ part of your post, which is a pure gold (as always)
    whew…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Don’t know enough about the guy to love or hate him, BUT
    looking at a picture atop of this article, I see a cheat-sheet attached to his left arm. Guess it’s hard to remember 6 non-random combinations of 11 non-variable inputs… lol
    or may-be they don’t pay him enough to do a home work
    besides…
    https://youtu.be/Md2vBiNm7W0?t=1m18s

  • BobbyLow

    Gee, I’m sorry you’re so bitter. Millions of people would disagree with you.

    I look at it differently and think that people can use sports as a release from some of the everyday grind that’s happening around them. The Super Bowl happens live only once a year. Reruns of the 1988 “Working Girl” can be seen anytime. But to each their own.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    o, no. not bitter at-all. may-be sarcastic…
    Learned to detect ‘panem et circenses’ from early age, I am used to NOT sharing passions and affections of majority (its actually quite liberating, but not socially acceptable anywhere).

    I agree with you about ‘release’, although there are better (and cheaper) ways to do it: reading, yoga, fishing… cuddling with daughter on a couch…
    jm2c

  • ridingwaves

    Fishing is not a release, catching is a release.

  • Benson Burns

    Oh dear

  • ridingwaves

    I thought the play of the game was not running the ball on 3rd and 1 by Atlanta in 3rd qtr, it negates the strip sack and eats another 2-3 minutes off the clock even if they don’t make it, punt would pin NE near the 20..that was the game, if they run it New England doesn’t have time to come back…..bad call by Atlanta Off Coordinator…..

  • BobbyLow

    That’s a good point RW this was big. Later in the game, Atlanta was also in field goal range at the NE 22 with 4 minutes left and then tried to throw the ball a couple of times and ended up way out of field goal range and forced to punt.

    This is why even though Brady is arguably the best QB of all time, football is a team sport and it takes Offense, Defense, Special Teams, and COACHING to win it all.

  • BobbyLow

    No problems. i B.

    Understood. :)

  • ridingwaves

    the coach decision that didn’t work, now we have him as head coach with 49ers…..

    I think coaches sometimes get caught into the same trap we do as traders, overthinking….they literally abandoned the run when it wins the game for them if they don’t….plus it seemed like Ryan didn’t run the clock down to 2-3 seconds before snapping the ball in 4th quarter….

    but New England made more plays to win….good teams do that…

  • Edd

    Geez i Berg you sure seem like a great guy to hang around with. I think I`ll go over to Bobby`s house, drink a few beers, argue over why Johnny Unitas is still better then Brady, Trump is great, HRC sucked, I could ride a bike better than him when we were young, cuss each other out and walk away knowing we had a great time last night with each other. For petes sake, one game, once a year in a sport many of us played when we were younger. It is called fun, for just a brief moment , enjoyed with friends. The obnoxious pretentiousness, it`s a real frickin downer.

  • BobbyLow

    One of the strangest things about this game is that the Pats ran twice as many offensive plays as the Falcons – something like 96 to 48. So by the 4th Quarter the Falcons Defense might have been a little gassed.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • StockTalker

    Hum, no VWAP today?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Those plays are often changed shortly ahead of the game in order to combat leaks – yes, this shit really happens. And all it takes is one wrong call to throw a tight game. So I’d say let’s cut Mr. Brady a bit of slack – he’s a good looking talented and successful operator who’s married to a girl every red blooded male American would like to get a round with. He can’t be too bad of a guy 😉

  • ridingwaves

    definitely tired and the half time oline blocking scheme change was huge for NE…

  • ridingwaves

    plus he’s from the bay area! I prefer Adriana Lima though

  • ridingwaves

    can’t figure beat down in oil, maybe over dollar bump? has me thinking of closing out my position. It seems to have a target on its back….

  • BobbyLow

    Me neither and it looks like Crude is back to being it’s bitchy self today.

  • BobbyLow

    My position is shaky too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m not. On the bright side, I’ve learn to trade like the coach. No emotion.

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/db/96/39/db96395264885b20d69f7b320d4d3afc.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..no respect for VWAP. at. all.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t get me started – one of my favorites, what a goddess.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..it’s a Cluster_F on the daily

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb37cafd51a2203eb78aae7310ebc2fe80c1f39bab52018d55279f387218d701.png

    when you figure it out, let me know.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe – it’s a pain in the ass contract for sure

  • BobbyLow

    Its been in a Cluster Fuck on the daily since January 3rd. We are now in the 6th Week of this Orgy.

  • StockTalker

    Have a look at /TF daily

  • StockTalker

    What a handsome devil

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Billabong

    Someone is rotating out of heavy miners/industrial …. VALE / RIO / SCCO, etc.

  • Billabong

    Brady and the Pats are persistent and consistent like professional traders … a disciplined operation that is an ice cold machine that produces results.

  • Billabong

    PMs have had a helluva run over the last six weeks … a trend that sits just on or below the upper BB.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tell me about it, I held my nose on Jan 05.
    sitting on ~2R, as a tiny tiny position.

  • BobbyLow

    Yikes, the Russell has been worse and in a CF for about 8 weeks.

  • kudra

    I got short via DUST today.

  • StockTalker

    Yes sir, a FN mess. That makes me bearish, believe it or not

  • StockTalker

    They all are a PITA

  • Billabong

    Party pooper… LOL

  • Billabong

    Since the juniors and second tier are starting to move, I’m keeping a very tight trailing stop on the miners.

  • Edd

    Hi Kudra,
    Long NUGT on 10min and Daily here, looking at both charts I can see maybe taking some off a position but going short?

  • Billabong

    SLW has a perfect Hangman on the daily. Could be a harbinger of a reversal tomorrow. Will be looking for follow-through on the downside if it holds through the close.

  • kudra

    yep. I blew that one.

  • Edd

    I was in DUST from 940 bar to 1020 bar on 10 min chart. Long on dailyNUGT from 12.21 after reentering( I don`t hold over weekends) I was convinced that the short would work today but I have to trade my plan. I know you trade these a lot but it sounds like you have to much discretionary thinking going on. I did not start doing well with miners until I had developed a detailed trading plan that was painstakingly backtested. Even then it took many, many months before I had developed any consistency. I never have opinions on these vehicles any longer. Just follow my rules. I know if you did the same you would be more than satisfied with your results

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Edd,
    I am actually surprised that you don’t realize how your reply plays into my hands. I only write you this because, based on previous comments, you seemed like a person ‘on a way’. So let me nudge you along a bit.

    See, my remarks about professional sports are based on independent observations and sound logic, but it goes further than that. Modern society gives you every opportunity to be a spectator, for it’s much easier to watch than to do. Like I pointed out to Bobby, there are other ways to have fun, but they require you get off your butt and actually do something. Unfortunately, advertisement and cable subscriptions can not be sold to you while you are biking in a woods or practice MMA. They are actually pushing you into mindless idleness, making a cult out of sport, social media and other things, while stealing money out of your wallet and health out of your body.

    If you try to sit down, close your eyes and think in silence and solitude about YOURSELF – your own needs and desires, your own happiness and rational self-interest – then little by little your life will change. You will start seeking knowledge instead of opinion, reason instead of feeling, independence instead of herd mentality. Your friends will change too. No longer will you agonize regarding people you don’t know in real life (Unitas vs Brady) or situations you have no control over (Trump vs HRC). Rather, you will gladly speak about yourselves – your achievements and interests- as well as your friends, for there will be a lot to share and it will be interesting. Your ‘circle’ will become much smaller, but instead of ‘arguing’ you will be discussing and sharing information; and instead of ‘cussing’ you will be laughing. You will not be afraid to be seen as pretentious because its real, for even if reality is obnoxious – it is the only truth out there.

    It seems to me that you already started this process of change. I know how hard and painful it is. This is why my comment is such a ‘fricking downer’ for you. I see your cry for help: “Please, for heaven’s sake, let me just feel this for one time… just a brief moment… please, I want to enjoy… this…fun…” SNAP OUT OF THIS! Your subconscious is screaming at you!
    HELP YOURSELF! The only guy you need to care about is YOU!

    YOU. Not afraid. Not confused. Confidently standing in a forward cabin of 100m/hr train, owning the road ahead of you.
    Try it. You’ll love it!

  • ridingwaves
  • Billabong

    I usually don’t brag about positions but the short WMT trade was a beauty. Despite being a boring equity, I shorted it on 16 Dec and held it all the way down. The position was covered yesterday for +2.18R. Yesterday afternoon it gave a buy signal and closed with a gravestone. If there is follow through to the upside, a DCB could move the price to 67.50 – 68.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you need to look at the bigger picture mate. Always lower prices
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We used to clear through FXCM and I always had the feeling that they were padding the spread as we didn’t get filled on certain contracts especially ahead of what would have been a winning campaign. Those fuckers – and that penalty is nothing compared with what they probably earned doing it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well said.

  • StockTalker

    They should loose their lic for that BS!

  • StockTalker

    Crude falling fast

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    crime does pay. (slap on the wrist..for getting caught)
    “Respondents shall pay, jointly and severally, a civil monetary penalty of seven million
    dollars ($7,000,000), within ten (10) days of the date of entry of this Order “

  • StockTalker

    Gap and crap

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, they are also forced to shut down all operations. I just hope that the executives themselves are not permitted to ever work in this industry again.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III