Alea Iacta Est

In case you flunked Latin – ‘the die is cast’. However unlike Cesar the bears did not manage to cross the Rubicon. The odds for this to be remedied are diminishing rapidly and with every tick to the upside. Of course if you are a Zero subscriber you may have been prepared for this – let me show you:

The Zero indicator has two panels – the hourly on the left and the more short term 5-min version on the right. Intraday the right panel is what you should keep an eye on but the medium term trend is reflected via the signals on the left. The smoothed version is on top and the raw signal below. As you can see at the end of the session there was a rather pronounced bullish divergence on both panels actually – on the Zero Lite (right panel) the signal kept climbing while prices attempted to drop to new lows.

Right after the open today the bots apparently took over as participation is light but very well organized and steady. Not reflective of any type of struggle – everyone was buying and now we are seeing a late session breather. Now the only thing that I imagine would save the bears here is a complete break down late session. Much territory has been lost in the past few days and that also produced a nice floor pattern where buying interest will encounter familiar ground. It’s not impossible but at the time of this writing this possibility appears remote.

The daily panel on the momo chart shows us that the bears had three chances to breach a NLSL and a *rising* 100-day SMA. Which puts insult to injury in my mind as the bears were unable to even conquer an SMA that was moving away from them. The 25-week SMA also was never challenged and now will act as tested support.

EUR/USD update – nice entry today at the hammer. It was a speculative one but thus far it’s paying off. Another reason this was a good entry IMNSHO is that we were sitting on top of a weekly NLSL. Didn’t mention that yesterday but if you’re long here keep that in mind in case we get a retest.

Also an update on the NZD/USD – inside day entry this morning and it’s off to the races. I’m surprised to see us above the 25-day SMA already and I think we may have a runner here. You can advance your stop to 1R (count the previous candle length and add that distance to your entry point) but I would let it run its course.

Two really cool futures setups for the my intrepid subs – if you follow me into the abyss make sure you use my brand spanking new futures risk calculator:

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Cheers,