All Time Tease

So here we are pinned just a bagel throw away from all time highs and supposedly there isn’t anyone interested in pushing the tape higher? What a tease! But remember this: confusion and a void of information almost always beget an increase in volatility. And since we had very little of that over the past few months that’s probably where the smart money may be going. Whether we push higher or lower from here – when it finally happens I expect it to be quick and painful. Just the way you like it.

For one that short term Bollinger is squeezed to the max and unless we’re devolving into a 5 handle trading range (we’re at 10 right now) we’re probably seeing a resolution here in short order. Although I’m still (barely) holding some lottery tickets to the downside it seems to me that the bulls got this one for now.

Copper is back on my watch list as it’s descending into soft daily and weekly support ranges. What I mean by soft is that it’s mostly indicator based with little price context until we drop into 2.48.

Soybean Oil is also worth keeping an eye on as it may just get ready to break out of its current LT descending channel. If you take a look at the weekly panel on the right then you get a good idea of what I’m talking about – it was in a similar formation last summer and then started to run like hell without ever looking back. I hope that we’ll get an opportunity to hop on that bus this time but at minimum I want to see a retest spike low or something.

Speaking of soybeans and spike lows – I’m still long the base contract after having survived a pretty scary shake out yesterday. Time to move my stop up a few more ticks to below the recent SL.

Finally the EUR/USD hasn’t gone anywhere in the past week. I’m now moving my stop to break/even as it’s been long enough and apparently there isn’t sufficient mojo to get out of this range – for now at least.

That’s it for now – have fun but as always keep it frosty.