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Always Follow The Money
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Always Follow The Money

by The MoleOctober 9, 2017

Before you do anything else I encourage you to catch up on my previous post which covers this week’s top and bottom performing stock symbols in the S&P 500. I’m actually considering to add small caps as well to widen our stock universe by a bit, what do you guys think? Anyway, today is a bit of a strange day here in Valencia as the 9th of October is officially a ‘día festivo’ celebrating the arrival of Jaume I ‘El Conquistador’ on this day in 1238 who managed to end several hundred yeas of Muslim rule over the region. However it’s fair to say that the mood here is a bit somber today as the situation in Catalonia is increasingly spinning out of control with Spanish president Rajoy threatening to use the ‘nuclear option’, meaning that he is prepared to rescind Catalonia’s autonomy status.

Spain was just finally coming out of a nasty depression which over the past decade caused over 40% of Spanish youth under 25 to remain unemployed and without much hope in terms of future career prospects. Which is why there is probably very little patience with what in most parts of Spain has long been considered a meddlesome and irreverent region hellbent on pursuing its dreams of independence.

Always Follow The Money

Whether or not Catalonia’s ambitions are justified is another story but I don’t think that they have a snowball’s chance of succeeding. Especially after several banks and other large employers in the region made it clear over the weekend that they would move their headquarters to either Madrid or other larger cities within Spain should the push for independence wind up succeeding. And that’s how the cookie crumbles, like it or not. In the end things always boil down to the where the money flows. And apparently the money right now is clearly not betting on Catalonia.

2017-10-09_spoos_update

So we seem to have been graced by luck last week as our trailing stop managed to survive what now looks like a little EOW stop run. For now I’m leaving my trail intact as it has served us pretty well.

2017-10-09_gold_update

Gold however wasn’t so lucky and that late day stab down almost exactly nailed my trailing stop. Fortunately I have access to several local churches right around the corner where I am able to repent for my excessive use of foul language after seeing it bounce right back shortly after.

2017-10-09_soybeans_update

Soybeans seems to finally be getting out of the gate but it’s still a bit too early to touch my ISL. I want to see at least 1R MFE before pushing it to break/even.

2017-10-09_ZN_update

ZN futures also were stopped out as I had suspected already on Friday morning. However this actually represents a rare re-entry opportunity which I’m going to cover further below.

2017-10-09_USDCHF_update

USD/CHF – I bet you almost forgot about that one as it’s been pushing sideways for most of the past week. But after a spike into ~1R MFE it’s now finally time to at least lock in our entry, i.e. stop goes to break/even.

2017-10-09_USDCAD_update

USD/CAD pretty much unchanged and our trailing stop remains at ~3.5R MFE. Thus far lighting a few candles seems to be staving off the stop runners. Let’s hope our luck continues.

2017-10-09_ZN_entry

Alright as indicated above I’m grabbing another entry on the ZN, once again it’ll just be 0.3R as this is a bit of a lottery ticket. Stop goes to below 124’220 which is near a recent spike low that managed to bounce off the lower 100-day SMA. I actually do not put much stock into that one as it hasn’t been touched for a while and my main criteria and raison d’être is what appears to be pretty strong rejection of the 124’240 mark.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    The fires here have turned San Francisco into one big orange smoke haze…..
    looking at crude here pretty hard….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Butterfly-In-A-Gadda-Da-Vita
    😉
    [DVA] PnF
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=DVA,P&listNum=

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    http://ww3.hdnux.com/photos/66/46/36/14313394/3/920×920.jpg


    27 Early the next morning Abraham got up and returned to the place where he had stood before the Lord. 28 He looked down toward Sodom and Gomorrah, toward all the land of the plain, and he saw dense smoke rising from the land, like smoke from a furnace.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mole is correct, follow the Money.

    I have several Muslim friends, they are integrated, they are peaceful.

    but this – what do you say? Foxes in the Hen-House.
    Mandalay is owned by MGM Resorts International

    This article is from *August*.
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/wayne-allyn-root/commentary-mgms-ceo-risks-angering-many-of-his-customers/

    Dare I say, the future for that tower is over. No American will book a room there.
    It represents a Cancer in a Nation, and voting with the wallet, will bring its demise.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, they are peaceful….with zero effective mechanisms for controlling their own subjugations within their own religion, which is fundamentally defective. Each one is then a potential sleeper.

  • Mary

    I have a question about your peaceful and integrated Muslim friends:

    Have you ever heard any of them condemn the planned mass murder attacks perpetrated by radical Muslims? Just curious …

    https://www.thereligionofpeace.com/attacks/attacks.aspx?Yr=2017

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have not talked to them this week.

    One however, has openly condemned the radical (uneducated) Imam’s in Saudi & Pakistan, and wish they were dead. (Imagine that!)

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and there is the rub; they are ok so long as the critical mass of the support environment around them poses no threat.

  • Mary

    I didn’t mean this week. Please scan the link I posted.

    The one that has openly condemned, what country does he happen to reside in?

  • Yoda

    Looks like bulls dropped the ball at VWAP. Tape feels heavy today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Companies should stay out of politics – period. So should most voters actually but that’s a different story 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I mention the word ‘Muslim’ in passing once and all hell breaks loose. I should have known better… sheeesh…

    Guys, I appreciate your respective views but this ain’t the place. Let’s stick to trading please.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What where when? I didn’t hear anything about fires… will check it out…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    Yoda GG GDX looks like follow thru today following Friday’s gain and nice volume. Gap up then a bullish kiss off the daily 21 ema which has turned up. Today possibly the 2nd bullish close above the 21 ema
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    While most any religion has parallels to herd behavior, its a shame on all for us we can’t be more rational about the subject matter so to apply it to trading.

  • Mark Shinnick

    So…tenuous around here, $ wise.

  • Julie

    Mark I am flat ….. Not in chest ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ballsy; universally respected no matter where its found :)

  • Yoda

    Yes so far so good!

  • ridingwaves

    i’ve seen more volume in a 68 Camaro than SPY today

  • Yoda

    Pics please ?

  • ridingwaves

    they can whipsaw it any way with this volume..
    buying more protection on any pushes north, short term trade only…
    2508 looks solid to me…

  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon Folks,

    I’ve been “keeping my nose to the grindstone” and was patient enough (a lack of patience has always been a problem for me) to scalp and book +.75R Short of YM Futures today. I’ve recently added /YM to my stable. As RW said, the volume today has been really low and prices can get jerked around easily. OTOH, I guess money can be made on low volume too.

    I also picked up a Long of MGC Gold Futures earlier today and this position is currently showing promise. All and all, not too bad for a slow day and I think I’ll stick primarily with futures for a while. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I always liked the futures – most of them are pretty liquid and I can trade them 24×5. What’s not to like? Well, roll overs for one and of course contango/backwardation.

  • Yoda

    T’was a good day for bears, with no positive divergence on both zero signals at the low. Hey, with a bit of luck bears may have another go at it tomorrow. If the little fat rocketman decides to pop one out overnight, and the Orange Clown responds in kind, the tape could get uglier than Scott in a tutu dress 😉

  • BobbyLow

    It’s taken me a long time to become comfortable trading futures and I’ve been able to do it by taking baby steps and after completing backward and forward testing. When I think back on it, I’m really shaking my head because I must have had some kind of (unjustified) psychological hang up on the way price moves on these things. However, what’s really crazy is when I carried large sized ETF positions and got the same amount of price movement or what’s even crazier is way back when I would carry 10 or more option contracts and get an even faster type of price movement all while being subject to multiple ways of getting screwed via the Greeks.

    Anyhow, I’m grateful to you and to all of the people here who talk about futures because over the years it has finally begun to sink in and I guess it’s better late than never. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I had my hands full today. Managed to migrate Scalpius from NT7 to NT8 after three days of hard labor (more than 8000 lines of code). So that’s good news as I’ll be able to develop my new strategies on NT8 moving forward.

  • Mark Shinnick

    8000 lines of code…3 daz ….and you still type in English…friggin phenomenal.

  • Mark Shinnick

    By now the ships should be able to bring 3 different systems to bear shortly after launch.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Migrating – not writing from scratch. But yeah, it was a ton of work.

  • StockTalker

    Got the back check in crude, now short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re up early!

  • StockTalker

    Yep, had my phone alert me:)