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AMZing
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AMZing

by The MoleJanuary 14, 2009

Just a little comment cleaner for you guys.

Was looking at AMZN this evening and it looks like this would be a nice play if it breaches 48. Probably good for 4-5 points.

Alright, I’m off – have some NinjaScript coding to get into. Good stuff to come on the Zero front 😉

I’m back with XLU – check it out.

What’s the chance this sucker pulls back into that ascending triangle? FYI: an ascending triangle is usually a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. I think we might have ourselves the rare case of the latter here – an ascending triangle breakout to the bottom finalizing its downtrend. BTW, I also love that ominous candle there… what you guys think?

Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Insect Overlord

    Repost because, well, just because. I'm following /NQ very closely and if I get a good trigger, I'm gonna short it. AAPL is way down in AH on the Jobs announcement…it may drag the NQ down with it.
    Like I said, I'm waiting on a solid trigger though.

  • Keirsten

    To Katzo from last thread:

    “All I can say is holy sheet.
    December CA Mortgage Defaults Up 100% month-over-month, nearly reach record high.
    http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2009/01/14/mr-..”.

    Indeed, and remember when some of the big banks announced back in October they'd put a moratorium on loans in default for 3 months? I think that gimme has now expired. It's going to get much worse ahead. One wonders how many defaults were forestalled on that little game.

  • Trader Jose

    Mole and Berk,

    Like many other leeches and steel rats there are several blogs I follow. Just want you guys to know that for my money ES is heads and shoulders (no pun intended) above the rest.

    One of the sites I peruse is dedicated to letting everyone know how much money the guy has and has made and stroking his own ego … not that there's anything wrong with that … and oh, have I mentioned that he always lets everyone know about all the money he's made and how he's done a 180 in a nanosecond while everyone else is still trying to make the last nanosecond's trade work.

    Another site is like the Ramstein of websites. 😉 … dark, sparse, cryptic. And then there are a bunch of others flat don't know what they are talking about.

    No other site shares the incredibly accurate knowledge and information that you guys do not to mention the Zero, which has made me a lot of money over the last week … I did ignore a couple of the exit signals but only because I'm just not as nimble as you guys.

    Anyway, I wanted to say gracias, you guys are the best and will continue to be the best as long as you keep doing more of what you are doing.

    Hasta luego, batos!

    TJ

  • molecool

    Gracias, Señor! :-)

  • katzo7

    Yeah, there is sh*t backed up in the pipeline that won't come out for a month or two. But when it does, look out.

    And I am aware of how much pain this is causing some people. In osme cases, it was really not their fault, being led into the American Dream. I refinanced and the “new” guy said that he cleaned out the “old” guy's desk and found lots of blank W2 forms. Just fill in the blanks and you too can get a house.
    We all could be in this position.

  • gagelle

    There's something bad going on with the banks again that isn't being revealed to the public. I'm thinking of BOA and C but have heard reports about others. My question is about the possibility of another panic that will bring us to November lows if not further. Another issue is that the FED, in my opinion, is buying long term bonds to keep the price up and long term interest rates down. It appears like they're creating another bubble (they never learn) that will eventually pop. This usually causes an exaggerated movment in the opposite direction.

    And by now everyone knows about AAPL.. Is this more fuel for the fire of mistrust in the financial markets?

  • de3600

    Goverment keeps throwing GASOLINE on the fire they just dont get it

  • gagelle

    I agree. And the more I think about it, the more credibility I find in Karl Denninger's outrage that our leaders are destroying our financial system.

  • BovineStew

    I find it highly unlikely that WFC will come out of this as relatively unscathed as they have.

  • gagelle

    The Beranke Chronicles, by Karl Denninger
    http://www.market-ticker.org/

  • Trader Jose

    Thanks for the Mr. Mortgage link … best explanation of what is going on in the housing market that I've read.

    Of particular interest is the article on the jumbo-prime-walk-away-loans implosion that is just now starting to take place and that the press is ignoring.

    http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/12/10/jum

    Again, many thanks!

  • Keirsten

    How's your trading going this week? I meant to check up with you? 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Is anyone seeing a five waves down from the high of 940 high area?

  • molecool

    27 days….

  • rubberbullet

    Reversal tendencies??

    the SPY has closed above the 2% gap down open about 69% of the time.

    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/10/r

    although today SPY “only” gap down by 1.8%….

  • gagelle

    The Era of Fundamental Analysis is Over. It started with Enron. Create shadow corporations and hide your debt. The accountants certify your financial statements and everything looks fine. Then the house of cards collapses. The banks learned from Enron. This was a device used by criminal syndicates. Now, no verbal statement or document produced buy a public company can by trusted anymore. Our regulatory agencies are in shambles and their enforcement activities consist in prosecuting celebrities for trading on inside information.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://screencast.com/t/NrWrRHFn1eX

    Look at the high on this chart wow lol

  • gagelle

    I actually made some money this week. But I'm still holding some cash and going slow. Thanks for your help Keirsten.

  • Keirsten

    You sir, are a mastermind and a half! If I didn't see this on your chart I wouldn't believe it myself! 😉

  • Keirsten

    Excellent, I'm so glad to hear that! Best way to go is slow and steady. I'm staying clear of anything but the best of breed solid signals at this juncture myself. I keep having to remind myself that this isn't a shoe sale at Nordies or something. :-) Speaking of Nordstroms, I should check that chart. LOL Maybe I can finance a nice spree there on the a good short.

  • de3600

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXPnoO16f28 mole thought you might like this my kid jammin to for whom the bells toll

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Europe and Asian indexes are tankin' bad.

    Mole, Zero is my *H*E*R*O*

    I stayed short last night and held tight to my CME and BNI puts. Banked some major coinage, thank you zero. Covered, but CME looks like it has much more room to go…..$160ish.

    Going to do some research now!

    Jan

  • ZigZag

    Yes…http://tinyurl.com/6wzdt6 $825 would be the end of the 5. I'm still long on a few things and will add more tomorrow.

    Bought a bazillion shares of DXO today. My stop is just below $2.70…. http://tinyurl.com/a6xcby

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    gagelle,

    I know you read KD's Market Ticker, so do I. I don't sport a tin foil hat, but I am truly concerned by his facts. We trade one day at a time and I think everyone in this forum knows where we are heading. I understand the implications, but all I'm trying to do is earn a living by trading this market. I do not enjoy making money at the expense of others, but I am preparing myself and my family for the worst case scenario.

    Now I wonder if there will be a market to trade once we implode. I would appreciate any comments.

    Peace out….

    Jan

  • molecool

    Well, let's not count our chicken before they're hatched, but it's a step in the right direction.

  • molecool

    FYI – I'm a regular there too. Karl is the man.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    For bears, today was a gift,…a free ride without worries of short squeeze…I reckon…
    Tomorrow, however,…even with initial drop that might occur, what happens after that is anybody's guess…
    (I am eying a bit below 820, but if the speed slows down, and move becomes choppy in a tight descending range, it could be much lower…)
    But if this is indeed the final drop for a while, short squeeze up to kingdom come, can kick in any minute…
    I brought this up for one reason…especially for newbs…
    Always look for the ways to get the maximum juice out of the run, but the faster you profit piles up, think harder how one can protect hard earn profit + irreplaceable capital…
    Answer is always somewhere in the middle somewhere, of both extremes…IMV…
    Being in the middle is not the same as being indecisive…..
    Indecisive attitude brings out mediocrity, and being in the middle grants a trader the best of both sides…Safety and consistent profit that is…Be alert, cautious,…but not fearful…Good luck to you all…
    Happy trading!

  • HungryNewt

    I know that it's said every day… but… thank you for all of your work.

  • Tony

    Think tomorrow will play out like Sept 18 and Oct 16?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Did you see my uyg chart above ? :)

  • toad37

    Anyone going long on the ESH9 right here at RL 832.25?

  • ZigZag

    LOL! I hate it when I do that. :-)

  • gagelle

    Jan, I worry about the implication of his statements. But I don't believe, as some do, that the answer to any breakdown of society is for one to hide in the woods somewhere with an automatic weapon. We, as ordinary Americans, can, and will be able to save this country through our own powers of creativity and innovation. We have done it before. And I have faith that we can do it again. I keep thinking about the war of 1812 and a two volume History of The United States written by Henry Adams. An inept political leadership wrecked the nation, but the ordinary citizen rose up and built something new out of the ashes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wait for JPM news before the bell my friend.Amoung other things.

  • toad37

    No doubt. Just seeing if anyone was nibbling.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hey Mole or Berk …Could you show some long term charts on the dow and spx ..interms of long term trend lines…Going back to say 10 -20 years for the group? It would be nice to look at the big pic and what's at stake. :0)

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    ummm, Mole….they've been hatching all week!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Thanks gagelle ….

    I also believe in the power of “we the people”, but I will coninue modest preparations just in case.

    Your spirit is much appreciated!

    Jan

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Mole and gagelle,

    This is another blog I read every day. Jesse always seems to have his hands on breaking news. Excellent commentary and occasional chart analysis.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

  • Insect Overlord

    Well…sorry, I have no list of issues to watch for tomorrow. But, I just officially entered my first futures trade. Sold /NQ at 1147.50 with a pretty tight stop at 1150.75.
    Note how NQ is been bouncing off the 23.6% retracement line, which is at exactly at 1149.04. I noticed that resistance level, but when I drew in the fibs and saw they were only 0.04 off, thought, OK…let it bounce and I'm in. So I am. We'll see what happens.

    http://screencast.com/t/Y1K6Qm1O9

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Wise words, T.B. I always respect your wisdom.

    Jan

  • Susannah

    You might want to concern yourself some with the transaction tax idea that keeps popping up in front of Congress. .25% for every transaction, this would kill a lot of trading, imagine .5% loss being tacked on every time you're stopped out.

    Unfortunately the idea seems to be gaining some traction in the press.

    There are reasons for not enacting it besides just the fact that it would make some types of trading obsolete. Loss of jobs, possible loss of the US as a trading center, etc. These ideas need to be spread every time the idea is brought up. Unfortunately, some of the articles I found on it are no longer accepting comments. How frustrating!

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I'm wondering if Oil (the commodity) long would be a good hedge for my CVX puts.

    Also, the (5) down of larger degree looks a little suspect to me. Both 4 of (3) and 4 look kind of small. My read is that today nearly finished 5 of (3.) Today seemed too orderly for it to be entirely over.

    Just out of curiousity, if you zoom out a bit, does it show that a Wave 4 triangle is still likely? EWI changed their bias to the idea that we've started big wave 5, citing breadth and volume. Granted, today was a big drop, but it didn't look that outsized.

    Also, triangles often appear when the market is waiting for information, and I think that the inauguration might be causing the uncertainty. Plus the lack of a clear 5 wave down formation makes me think this might be 3 waves down, which would suggest that we're still in wave 4.

    I'm new to Elliott Waves, but the crystal ball still looks kind of cloudy to me.

    Either way, some kind of bounce should be coming…

  • old_lefty

    TB thanks for the sage advise.

  • chrysalis

    Dunno if you know, the leverage on futures can kill you if you don't know EXACTLY what you're doing. My experience is with the ES.

  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective
  • Erikd

    its getting time to start dialing in the focus tomorrow as it has been an easy ride down for over a week as the S/P has not had a rally to the upside for more then 14 points.. that will change tomorrow but that does not mean we will find a bounce tomorrow. i will be following the XLF as always but i will be dialed into these two charts KBW http://screencast.com/t/q14IrSavf
    $tran http://screencast.com/t/2INgMyfc
    the ride wil quicken the next 2 days… strap in and lets ride…

  • AKJ

    Just thought I would post a chart regarding the Vix: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0

    I'm leaning more and more bearish the more charts I look at though I am leery of a snapback rally… particularly at the 818 and 808 levels mentioned so often. If you look back at the XLF in the July and November crashes, there was only one up day with any kind of volume once downward momentum started to accelerate–in October there were none. I'm thinking that maybe Tuesday was the bounce we were waiting for and that the snowball has set off down the mountain. As always, your thoughts are appreciated.

  • GEO

    This is not “the final drop” and not “for a while” – the final will come pretty soon!

  • GEO

    You are wrong.

  • AKJ

    Mole, you going with SDP or shorting XLU? I was in SDP at $42.10 and got stopped out on some weirdness where the bid jumped WAY below the ask at the open LOD was almost .5 higher than my stop. At any rate, I was pissed and never jumped back in and am now kicking myself. I think SDP has a long way to run and may get back in the morning. That doji is a bit ominous though.

  • benji12

    ride down?

  • molecool

    Big picture widget – on your right 😉

  • GEO

    I should add , as a last prediction, in about three weeks.

  • aum_namoh_shivay

    it seems that snp might not go to 820 level and shoots up from here as per your analysis

  • ScubaSteve

    That looks like a better breakout play than a short. It's hugging the resistance line rather than the support (higher lows).

  • grednfer

    ZERO is my HERO? I seem to remember that. I found this on YouTube, this is from my childhood……its a great cartoon.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPE_xB0HIbw

  • grednfer

    Heres one that I don't remember, but its more applicable to our times.

    Tyrannosaurus Debt……very funny.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHRxfn-DTV4&feat

  • GEO

    So I am posting a link to his site for those who never visited it – http://market-ticker.denninger.net/.

  • standard_and_poor

    Quite true, it's good to be humble when profits are garnered…..cause we never know what lurks
    around the corner.

  • standard_and_poor

    I think stocks or any other tradeables won't be a topic of conversation at parties for a long time after the implode. Interest will wane, and even worse, markets will be scorned as rip off casinos as volume will wither and then we'll all die. Sorry for the morbidity, couldn't resist the last part.
    On the positive side we will survive as long as we are nimble and willing to adjust, financial Darwinism if you will. : )

  • standard_and_poor

    I second that, haven't visited recently though.

  • rky06

    Mole, You mentioned Ninja trader in your earlier post. I have downloaded Ninja Trader couple of weeks ago and trying/practicing few strategies, mainly in Forex and It looks pretty good (I use Gain as data source). I still need to spend more time to get used to.

    Interested to here your experience with it. What data feed your using for futures?

  • Sal

    Depends how the market will react to appl news. But pay attention to Mole's Sunday chart. That is my road map unless he say something else dynamically. Zero is also a great guide.

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm keeping my puts and shorts (don't want Mole to kick my butt) but will be buying cube calls if warranted later, for short term pops. Sincerest Best of Luck to everyone today. Spx futures currently down
    11 points, yippee!

  • standard_and_poor

    Declining volume on nyse 29:1, (if data is correct) phenonomal. Looks like an impulse wave to me-wave 5 is on brothers
    and sisters-be prepared.

  • katzo7

    GEO said,
    “This is not “the final drop” and not “for a while” – the final will come pretty soon!”

    And IMO, he is right.
    Before anyone tries to be a hero and catch “the bounce,” you should always have firmly planted in the back of your mind, the trend is down.

  • http://www.for-really.blogspot.com Jana

    Wanted to thank you for the your work on the Zero. I keep it up all day and refresh. It definitely helps to keep my head clear during the choppiness. It is great.

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    As if Mole's ego needs to be fed anything else 😉

    I do concur though…

  • yazzer

    Agreed – love the ZERO – it keeps my brain's geeky side fully focused and is always included in any of my decisions to go long, short or just sit out…

  • m_chi

    is anyone still buying OTM puts on BAC and/or C (but especially BAC) expecting to see more downside pressure in the near term?

  • katzo7

    Get a day chart
    put on Bollinger Bands (BBs)
    MACD
    Stochastics (SS)

    Go back to 6/09 (slight poke below BB)
    1. BBs were fairly horizontal prior to this move down (EW1 down)
    2. note how SS bounced along bottom (for some time)
    3. AND see how it walked down the BB's

    THEN WE MOVED SIDEWAYS
    Next
    Go to 9/04 poke below BB)
    Note the same as above 3 points
    THEN look at 11/21, from there
    we were actually doing an EW4 up (high 821.23 on 1/06), a very muted up wave IMO. It should have hit above 1000

    I consider this EW4 up a sideways move (look at shape of BBs)

    Next we go into EW5 down (initiated on 1/06). Apply above to this move.
    IMO, we have a ways to go.

    Targets 660 on sp between 1/24 and 2/02

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like es got to 828 overnight. Wonder if we visit there today?

  • janrosannadan

    Found a great website for a heads-up on commercial real estate defaults:

    Todays news: The distressed loan situation in commercial real estate is taking a striking turn for the worse, according to a CoStar Group analysis of December loan information on more than 83,000 loans in commercial mortgage backed securities. The level of distressed…

    http://tinyurl.com/7tyreq

  • molecool

    I'm using an IB data feed – works nicely although I'm thinking of opening an eSignal account.

  • MaxPainMan

    MA at (or breaking) lower channel!!

  • moneyfarm

    Mole,
    The XLU chart looks interesting. Could be a nice longer term play if one expects interest rate to go up as well. Are looking to buy puts on this? The options volume looks pretty thin.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF going down the tubes Erikkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkd

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Could be time to hedge those puts soon

  • MaxPainMan

    SPX 794.33 today? (weekly RL)

  • Anonymous

    Love the Zero and the site. Thanks.

  • MaxPainMan

    great opportunity to sell some SKF calls either later today/tomorrow

  • bender_b_rodriguez

    i see that, glad i kept 1 of the 150 puts, wish i didnt sell the other 2 yesterday…but they are jan and i got a little nervous.

    i think it could drop at far as 127 (support in early dec and nov) if the pressure keeps up.

  • Erikd

    look at KRE and KBE major weakness all over the sector…

  • houdini

    looking for a first hour low anytime soon for a pop to 850ish,all being well,6 point stop.slightly lower maybe 826 first.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like XLF is headed to fill that gap back in Nov 9.85-10.08

  • Erikd

    indiacators 5 for 5 with major weakness on XLF …..

  • T.B. Aurelius

    If what I see is correct, upward correction should be limited to chipity chops…unless the spike takes it all the way up near the beginning of the drop…
    Both possibility is still there…
    RIMM looks to me is riding along the path of AAPL…they are taking alternate turns in each quater…IMV…
    Stocks that are still buckling the trend are Eddie Lampert’s ones…How long will he able to buy up his own stocks….
    I am in both SHLD and AZO(more so in SHLD)……and betting that they will tire out…slowly but surely…
    Happy trading!

  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective

    the new trading range

    tradepostings.blogspot.com

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Yes…
    I am in FDX, and it seems it is one of the stock that has a lot of value investor following…
    Eventually, value or no value, people start giving up…IMV…

  • Erikd

    market needs a parachute this morning… NOT……

  • Reza

    Erikd, what do u think about QLD

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole is quite this morning. He must of gone back to bed. :)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Beginning to fill the XLF Gap back in Nov For you gap lovers

  • Erikd

    I think it will follow market direction…

  • katzo7

    I agree with chipity chops
    Tried shorting AZO multiple times and was taught a lesson.
    Have no idea about that stock, but it always looked expensive to me.

  • bender_b_rodriguez

    that AZO is a rock…wont budge, my puts have been killed. when it lets go though…look out below.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    By looking at VIX, and VIX only…
    This bear run can go a lot farther than even myself can imagine….
    It is hard to say with just this chart….
    But possibility is there…

  • Turbo_Tim

    Thanks, Erikd

  • MaxPainMan

    on XLF we are right at 76.4% fib of low from 11/21/08 to high of 12/8/08

  • Anonymous

    long here at 826.8

  • Keirsten

    I think that XLF house might be looking like this?

    http://k53.pbase.com/o6/72/274572/1/74072764.yk

  • bender_b_rodriguez

    not to talk to myself too much here, but, i also missed buying back the 2 at the open today…by like 10 seconds. the time to enter the order, and a quick double check of the chart, but by then it was rocketing down. better than rocketing up though!

  • Erikd

    Early read today tells me we are in MAJOR WAVE C and primary A………

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    chart please for the visual folks

  • Keirsten

    That one is a killer. Beware of both AZO and SHLD as shorts. Just when you think Sears should crash Eddie will announce a buy back. He owns AZO as well.

  • Treasurehunter

    First was sub prime ,now ALT -A and prime foreclosures.
    Good read last week on Daily reckoning about this.
    Bought SDP but should have got SKF.
    Congrats to those who bought SKF last week.

  • katzo7

    I agree here with you completely T.B.

    Don’t be heros here guys.
    Every EW4 up move gets squashed.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Both you guys have tried multiple times….and still think it has a potential, but ready to give up or given up to short again…
    I consider that a good sign of the cycle being riped….
    Bull market starts when bulls throw in a towel, and bear market starts when bears do the same….
    Something to think about???

  • katzo7

    Another EW4 move up attempt squashed.

  • Pharding

    Long on SPY Calls Mar 90's at his 820 level with 1/2 position. Will buy other 1/2 if we hit 807.

  • Keirsten

    Took profits from FAZ, and going to slowly leg into some longs as a hedge.

  • katzo7

    Think I will wait until it clearly breaks some trend lines.

  • bender_b_rodriguez

    that is why this morning, when AZO popped up to 129.5 i grabbed a couple feb puts. i want to be part of the solution, not the problem!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder when a surprise bounce will happen?

  • krazykev

    Awesome call MOLE , on the stay short bias .Looks like GOOG got away from us .

  • de3600

    vix got a nice pop wonder if we even get to 915 i was thinking maybe 860 and than the floor lets loose

  • bender_b_rodriguez

    thats probably the smart thing to do…good luck

  • katzo7

    thnx

  • Erikd

    LOL…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    30- year Mortgage rate falls below 5% for the first time ever.

  • Lori

    Meant to thank you earlier for the link, Jan. They're good ones.

  • poopsquad

    according to the Yen, we bounce here nice. energy/material stocks holding up well…..ErikD – what you say the prospects of the XLF catching a short-cover bid here ?

  • Trader Jose

    Re … “Early read today tells me we are in MAJOR WAVE C and primary A………”

    Not sure what that means … ditto Mr Vix's comments … do you have a chart that shows what you mean?

    Thx.

  • Erikd

    KBE KRE $BKX have taken out the nov21 lows these are leading financials (XLF) down today…
    just draw a horizontal line at the low wick of nov21 on these three and watch if it becomes resistance today……..

  • Lori

    Don't know if you seen this – Mole mentioned Chrismartenson.com's site and his “The Crash” downloadable presentation. It's a great explanation of how we got where we are and what we can do to turn it around. His premise is there's no way we can get through this on our own…offers some hope.

  • C.C. Rider

    Mole, per your wave count playbook.
    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

    It seems to me we touched the bottom at 819.99!! Awesome call by the way!!! I can see a huge pop late today or tomorrow on OPEX for the MM's to screw the most people they can to around SPX 875 per your chart. What say you?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We are grinding back up folks

  • katzo7

    We goin down

  • DZZ

    Gold has tried to break Mole’s crayon 4 times in the last three days.

  • ablebonus

    Yes, huge props to Mole thus far as the playbook has been perfect.

  • kimmichaelp

    Yes, down we go

  • etechpartner

    Mole – reg the 820 level…. if you can't sell puts (per Sunday suggestion) is there some other substitute strategy one can use?

  • m_chi

    does anyone think the reason tech stocks like RIMM and AMZN are up is because fund managers are selling financials as they finally realize they are doomed, and they have to find another sector to rebalance into?

    if so RIMM and AMZN and others like it look like good shorts soon.

  • rky06

    Thanks. I am planning to open IB account as well. Ameritrade also works with Ninja trader. But limited to stocks and options only.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks! :-)

  • poopsquad

    Mole/Berk – everyone is blowing you up right now, might as well my slurp on as well. Seriously, forget the fact that you have nailed this move incredibly. The fact you post a gameplan, update it very often during market hours, and respond when things are going the other way, its niiice. A couple other reputable sites have issues with posting 'winning trades' after the fact, or falling into deep black holes. As far as a great, thoughtful blog that has members who share and learn from each other….the best…

  • molecool

    Buy futures?

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • Erikd

    the day is still very young.. be right and sit tight.. price action into the close will us… let the market work… it may keep giving the gifts that keep giving, in the context as T.B. said…

  • molecool

    It's a stubborn SOB.

  • molecool

    You can't get 'em all – but you can try! :-)

  • Marc

    I agree with the last comment from poopsquad. If you fellas are in your twenties as the mention of your recent birthday indicated, kudos to you for your ethics and consecration of time and talents for our collective benefit . It helps to offset the nonsense and noise from the media, politicians and others. Thanks guys!

  • DMS425

    Loooking to go long at 820, on the retest.

  • molecool

    Erik – there are no 'major' waves in EWT.

  • etechpartner

    Thanks.

  • etechpartner

    Now there is an idea – and it should work right in line w the zero.

  • Trader Jose

    Mole … no one else out there delivers the value ES does … poopsie's description of what you you guys do is spot on … and incredibly valuable to newbies like me!

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    820…Mole, Bravo!

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Not sure if 820 is going to be the bottom here, looking at the daily SPY chart with MACD and bollinger bands it seems like it has some more room to go. I'm going to wait for the Zero to tell me to go long, in the meantime I will stay short.

  • ZigZag

    Hey Steve,

    I think you are correct…My thinking is that we're still in wave 4 which should end at around SPX $900. I'm hoping that the Oils would be a good trade for the ride up to $900 http://tinyurl.com/8zzmkz

    Wow! I just looked at your CVX. This thing has some serious downward potential here.
    http://tinyurl.com/9bqgfr

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Thanks! My CVX puts are dated June, and I had planned to hold them for a while. My prediction is that at some point, reflation will start to take hold, but I figured that the oils would be safe shorts until then. I feel a lot better about holding it longer.

    I was wondering why the entire world (including Elliott Wave International) decided that the triangle wasn't likely, and I think they made that call based on a high volume day and wave C looking more like a 5 wave impulsive pattern than the three wave we would expect in a triangle.

    Still, it looked like a really lousy 5 wave pattern. Wave 3 looks extended, and wave 1 doesn't match wave 5 (assuming it's done.) It makes a lousy three wave pattern too. We'll have to see where this goes…

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Thanks! My CVX puts are dated June, and I had planned to hold them for a while. My prediction is that at some point, reflation will start to take hold, but I figured that the oils would be safe shorts until then. I feel a lot better about holding it longer.

    I was wondering why the entire world (including Elliott Wave International) decided that the triangle wasn't likely, and I think they made that call based on a high volume day and wave C looking more like a 5 wave impulsive pattern than the three wave we would expect in a triangle.

    Still, it looked like a really lousy 5 wave pattern. Wave 3 looks extended, and wave 1 doesn't match wave 5 (assuming it's done.) It makes a lousy three wave pattern too. We'll have to see where this goes…