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An Evil Scheme
69

An Evil Scheme

by The MoleDecember 21, 2015

Forgive me if I’m not going to be posting a laundry list of setups today as I’m elbow deep in reorganizing/redesigning the entire site. Yes, it’s a mess and for more details please read last night’s post which explains what’s going on and what to expect in the new year. But in a nutshell – if you think Evil Speculator was cool now then think again. I’m going to work hard and kick things into fifth gear during our Christmas holidays, so be prepared to hit the ground running in early 2016.

2015-12-21_evil_scheme

As the saying goes – no rest for the wicked! There is always time for another evil market scheme and I’ve concocted a veritable doozy for you guys today. If you take a peek at the chart above then you’ll see that I’m already short here with a stop near 2013.75 where I would expect ST resistance.

2015-12-18_zero

Here’s the Zero snapshot of last Friday’s tape. We did see early signs of a possible divergence play but it would have to resolve in the next few hours today. So given that here’s what I’m thinking:

  • If the Zero agrees I would grab a long position above 2013.75 – meaning the divergence is continuing and the Zero Lite signal is in positive territory.
  • Similarly I would flip for a long position if the Zero tells me that buying pressure seems favorable near the psychologically charged 2k mark.
Evil Santa

Now if we head down (and I remain in my shorts) I will once again pay attention around the 1980 mark as I expect buyers to muster up a defensive line there. Once again it’ll be important that you closely watch the Zero for signs of participation as we may drop lower quickly on fumes just to shake out some weak hands.

Below 1980 it’s anyone’s guess as we could be looking at an Evil Santa scenario. With some luck I would still be short there but if I’m not then would probably wait until after 3:00pm Eastern to gauge what’s going on. Before that it’s possible we push down quickly but then reverse into the close. This is one of those situations where we’ll have to be nimble and keep a close eye on participation.

Keep It Nimble

Suffice it to say that this is not the spot to make big bets as you will be handed your ass in a decorative Christmas hand basket. Could we slip off the plate here like a 72oz Texan steak? Absolutely, but if you want to play this scenario then drop into some cheap ATM January puts instead. Consider it a lottery ticket – or perhaps a bit of insurance against a market dislocation. We’ll actually revisit this topic later this week or early next year at the very latest.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • RoastBeeph

    Anyone have the direct link to the zero indicator page? For some reason I can’t find it when I load this new look on my browser.

  • Ronebadger

    …handed your ass in a decorative Christmas hand basket. LOL

  • Round we go

    when the cat is away the mouse will play. mole, did you use discretion or did you get stopped out mechanical :)

  • captainboom
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s the one.

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It won’t stay that way – no worries. I haven’t done any of the organizational stuff yet. It’ll be but one click away after the holidays. Please be patient until then.

  • Round we go

    bobby killing it on oil avalanche. $30 I would take at least 1/2 profit, actually if I in that trade I would have taken 1/2 at 35 and fully out by $30. but I am not balls of steel bobby.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I’m out of my short position and am looking for a long entry. Would like to see a bit more Zero signal though.

  • Round we go

    looks like NG is shooting for $2. razar thin market is the time to do it. my question to street cred ridingwaves is when are you going to take profit?

  • BobbyLow

    Mole, I just want to give you my 2 Cents worth on the “suggestion” to move ES over to Facebook.

    Personally, I am not crazy about facebook. I joined FB last summer for the sole purpose of supporting Tom Brady who was getting screwed by the NFL. Shortly after this, I friended a few of my family members. Then I had a couple of people who were freinds of their’s ask to friend me and I never responded.

    There are a lot of things that I say here on the Evil Speculator that I would never say on Facebook. Those of us here on ES are from all over the world and have become friends and acquaintences who I don’t mind telling when a trade went bad or when I hit it big on a trade because you guys understand WTF I’m talking about. But as far as telling a bunch of people on Facebook what I do and who will who never understand what I do, NO THANKS!

    I realize that I’m probably “Old School” but we as a soceity are getting our personal privacy sucked dry a little more each and every day. I intend to hold on to as much of it as I can. FWIW, I think if ES was operated out of Facebook you might get a lot of exposure to the public but you would also lose a lot of people who prefer to keep their lives as private as they possibly can.

  • Round we go

    one suggestion mole. can you put back the post count ( number of posts ) on the header of the post on the home page.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for the push. :) I just took 1/2 off the board for a net of a little over +3 R profit and am leaving the rest open with a stop “currently” set at a close above $38.49.

    The biggest problem ( which can be a nice problem) is that I’m using SCO which is a 2X Movement. I sold half at $144.33. So approximently, $144.33SCO /$33.80CL = 4.27X Movement. Then when you factor in that SCO is a 2X this means that you have 2 Times 4.27 or 8.54 times the movement in SCO that occurs in /CL at these price levels. (These calculations are always a moving target.) At these levels substancial profit comes off faster than it is accumulated because of the way percentages work on these things.

    So your right and anytime I get above +6R, I should be thinking about taking partial profits anyway.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole/Bobby, There are “private” groups so YOUR “friends” wouldn’t see your trading, only those in the group. Mole, I’m not sure if that helps your goal. I am a member of the Empty Nose Group but I sure don’t want my friends seeing posts by people with ENS.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long NQ here, 4632

  • OJuice

    Looked relatively promising for a bounce this morning. Now not so much. Back to ground and pound.

  • BobbyLow

    GBP/JPY tanking again.

    I love the smell of napalm in the morning! :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPXVGQnJm0w

  • Round we go

    bobby getting feisty. I like it :)

  • Round we go

    your trading like Tom Brady reads the defense. I can learn something from you.

  • BobbyLow

    I can see the need for private groups like yours and how it could be very beneficial.

    One thing about Evil Speculator is that it is already in place. If I were to advertise, I would specifically target the market that I believe could be the most productive. I think that targeting the mass public is just too wide. I don’t have any stats on this but I imagine that the mass market target ratio of new customers to viewership would be minimal.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ” I joined FB last summer for the sole purpose of supporting Tom Brady” (he he he he he)

  • mugabe

    timber!

  • Round we go

    i quit facebook three years ago.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. :)

    There’s always things that we can learn from each other.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Let’s go baby, let me see that bulltard strength!

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t blame you. I just can’t get into it.

  • Round we go

    When yelling at the screen. it must come from the gut and it comes from full conviction. is your gut fully confident? let’s hear it, if it is :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    No need for a FB private group when we have our own community right here!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    lol, good one. The zero is backing up my confidence today.

  • Round we go

    i was into it hardcore for 5 yrs then and had hundreds of “friends” but then it became boring and not “real”. next…

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. This Face Book Page came out in support of TB shortly after Roger Goodell and the NFL paid over 4 Million Dollars for the so-called “Wells Report”. And the best that this Wells report could come up with is a “More Probable Than Not” Theory. This FB Page ended up with over 10,000 supporters along with other multiple like minded FB Pages as well. A company by the name of Exponent did the “scientific” report. This is the same company that has testified in court procedings that Cigarette Smoke does not cause Cancer and Oil Spills are not dangerous to the enviroment. This is a real creditble outfit. LOL So what this rally means is that if you pay enough money, a report will say whatever you want it to say.

    In the mean time, any 10th Grade High School Chemistry or Physics student could provide scientific evidence of natural phenomena but that didn’t matter. A few jealous and influential owners saw an opportunity to stick it to the Patriots and didn’t mind throwing the Baby out with the Bathwater.

    With apologies in advance to readers from Maryland and Indiana, it was your teams who set this all in motion. I am personally enjoying the Karma that has fallen upon your teams which are the Ravens and the Colts. :)

    Anbody that isn’t blinded by their hate and or jealousy of the New England Patriots and has an IQ above 80 realizes what a fucking hose job Deflategate really was. I mean a #1 Draft Choice and a Million Dollar fine to the Team and a 4 Game Suspension (about a 4 Million Dollar fine) to Tom Brady for “More Probably than not” knowing that someone might have let some air out of some fucking footballs is nothing but a steaming pile of pure unadulterated horseshit.

    Brady has already kicked Goodell’s ass in Federal Court. This is in the Court that the NFL chose. LMFAO Brady will kick their asses at the next level too. Why? Because these Federal Judges have an IQ above 80.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, in my experience not too many of the FB sort seem to me like ES public. Shit…most of us are trying to REMOVE ourselves from biasing the pictures we are involved with.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sold at 4638. Boring.

  • OzarkHillBilly
  • Round we go

    maybe this is why you did not yell from the gut.

  • hellbent

    Can we now affiliate the site with South Park? I hope so. I fcn hate facebook but I’ll friend those little bastards!

  • Round we go

    ran into on my blog stroll

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Does anyone have problems logging into aMember today? I got two reports today and need to know if those are isolated cases.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You mean number of comments?

  • Round we go

    yes

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is great input, thanks mate. Personally I hate FB, which is probably a very good reason to not use it as my comment system. Scott loves it but I think there are other ways to leverage our FB page without exposing the activity of our members.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, exactly. A middle ground has to be found without selling our souls to Zuckerberg and cronies. Personally I believe a lot more in syndication and affiliate partnerships. I really don’t mind sharing revenues if it brings in paying customers.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My stop officially nailed the high today. Fuck, I shouldn’t even be trading at all – way too busy with the site and pre-X-Mas chores.

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s not that I love it – I HATE IT

    It’s not that I don’t think you are compromising yourself or selling out by using facebook – you absolutely are!

    It’s not that I don’t think you wouldn’t piss off the hardcore faithful by doing so – absolutely you would.

    Simple fact is that since 2011 facebook has ruthlessly dominated the online world, to the point where most people spend more time on facebook than watching TV. Now I don’t personally watch TV, but that is quite astounding. You want to build an audience, you are pushing shit uphill doing it any other way.

    Let me show you what some of my buddies are currently doing. This is an ex employee of mine who posts stupid car videos to facebook

    https://www.facebook.com/streetfx

    Across his facebook pages he has an audience of 13 million and earns advertising revenue approx $250,000 USD / month. Just bought himself a brand new lamborghini.

    This is my gym bro training partner – he’s making $250K / year off this page, selling diets for $1200 and flashing his abs a lot. Also getting laid like the champion of the free world in the process. See the audience 51000 people.

    https://www.facebook.com/pureandlean/?fref=ts

    Whatever you think of facebook it is quite simply the winner of the social media wars, and there is no argument. The inherent problem with blogging is that it is a web 1.0 platform. It has been surplanted by twitter, instagram, youtube, facebook etc. Blogging = buggy whips.

    Also the idea of just parallel posting whatever you post on a blog on facebook, is a non-starter, it literally is a waste of time. Syndication deals with other bloggers – waste of time. Slope has 10x the traffic you have and isn’t profitable either.

    Suggest you read some books on social media marketing by Gary Vaynerchuck, very insightful and the best stuff I’ve read. It’s not my business so I have no dog in this fight, but I see the classic problem that Buffet talks about with industries in decline.

    “When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact” Warren Buffet

  • Round we go

    The gremlins are running rampant. was a bit surprised that you did not wait til after open for context. i think it was your entry. I know there was break where you entered but your usual mantra is to wait to a spike high or low. anyway chump change day. goldman said collar for the rest of the year.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Silence in this case is good….

    ????
    ????
    ??????
    ??????
    ??????
    ?????/

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Actually I did have trouble logging in. Received the invalid login message and then when I attempted to follow the password retrieval directions, I just got a blank page and never received an email. I then saw the link provided by captainboom (thanks) and I was able to get to the Zero that way.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can you get to this page?

    http://evilspeculator.com/members/

    Try to log out and then back in. Please write me an email to admin@ and let me know exactly what happens.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Yes sir.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, have you tried to log in and out? What exactly happens? if you get an error message please take a snapshot and email it to me at admin@.

  • almez

    Where are the zero indicator and login tabs? I am currently accessing it by clicking the links in the comments below.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    That was an interesting end of day thrust up. We are above the highs of the regular trading session after hours. Looks bullish to me for a grind up higher. Is anyone trading today or am I the only one talking market? Sounds like everyone is talking about the new site design more.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Went long NQ 4569 at the close. Stop at 4554 (previous high of today).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You can use the little key in the very top right. I just fixed it and it should get you there.

    The Zero page is here as usual: http://evilspeculator.com/zero/zero.png

  • Round we go

    pesky gremlins closed above 1120 on RUT. stopped out on tza.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pure fuckery EOD – check out the Zero flatline. I didn’t have any time to trade it unfortunately as this site redev has me bogged down.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Scott,

    You know roughly what the % breakdown of revenue is for gym buddy? Like what % is from diet sales, what % from clicking on ads, etc. Very curious here

  • Wyo_Redneck

    In my reading of the zero, there was not much selling pressure, so I went long at 1999.25 near the second test of the low of the day and I have just set my stp. I don’t have a longer view as Mole and Scott

  • Wyo_Redneck

    Just my view, but there was no selling pressure on the zero, so I went long on the second test of the low at 1999.25. With a tight stop at 1996.75. Not that this is to say I read it right, I probably just got lucky. Mole and Scott keep me from reading anything than the next move. I raised my stop to 2011.75

  • Scott Phillips

    The gym guy is 100% selling diets. The other guy is about 80% google ads revenue and the rest selling stupid shit like novelty car products and stickers.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are any of you guys seeing empty pages by any chance? I have had that problem in the past two days and just received an email from a sub who mentioned occasional blank pages as well. Thanks in advance.

  • kim
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Got stopped out on my long then it shot right back up. Fuckers. It was a 20 point stop too.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Nice move

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    On my Android browser, I have a slightly annoying transparent pink line on the left

  • kim

    that’s the plan, first fuck shorts, then longs, then shorts, then longs etc…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    )
    ( /( ( (
    )()) ( )))( ‘
    ((_) ) ((_)() )
    _((_)((_) _(())_)()
    | | || __| ((_)/ /
    | .` || _| // /
    ( |_|_||)__|( _/_/
    ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, you can actually click on it. Shows you a little navigator for going back/forth.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Damn. That is nuts. 250k/ yr selling diets? Plus his biz markets himself to women. Brilliant.