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Another Day, Another FRN.
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Another Day, Another FRN.

by The MoleMarch 18, 2010

by gmak

Private debt has shrunk $36 trillion to $34 trillion over the last year. My understanding is that this is the first time it has happened (at least since 1952) EVER. US GDP is around $14 trillion (if the numbers can be believed). Within this, US consumer credit has shrunk for 11 months in a row. Hardly the stuff of a consumer-led recovery. It has the faint odour of deflation about it, Holmes. Now on to other matters.

Everyday, I hear people say that the market will ramp and stick. “Watch out for the 3:30 push”. “Here comes the PPT”. The TA shows continued upward momentum and yet the gaggle of traders ( A murder of shorts?) persists in trying to pick the market top. It seems that most would rather be right than successful. Accounts and P/Ls are whittled down to where it is impossible to take a calculated risk anymore.

The market is not rational. It cannot be predicted. There are so many factors at play that a PhD in Physics describing the interactions of grains of sand being dropped one by one into a pile is barely able to describe the relationships in the financial system (though they do try).

TA is a beautiful elegant mathematical system that tries to model the messy, sloppy, unfathomable reality of the markets. Most traders are using some version of it, crunching the same numbers, looking for nuances in the same signal lines and moving averages, staring hollow-eyed at the same Fibonacci numbers and lines, drawing the same trend lines with trembling hands. Where is the much-vaunted “Edge” in that?  At any point in time there are probably 30 – 50 million traders of varying skill around the world looking at exactly the same data, using the same software, and interpreting the results in pretty much the same way.

The simple truth is that in any time period, the market will go both up and down. Money can be made both ways. It doesn’t matter what is supposed to happen. It only matters that the market goes both up and down and that money can be made either way. (I know, I said the same thing twice. It’s that important.).

Einstein’s definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Welcome to the broken clock.

EQUITY

The chart shows that, yesterday, SPX put a pin up to the trend line “Since Oct 21”, knocked loudly, and was NOT let in. The question now becomes, how many times will SPX knock on that trend line before either getting through, or being rebuffed.  We all know that it will try to get above again, and that the invading barbarians have to take a few steps back before running the battering ram at the door again. (AM analogy for SPX should usually pull back a bit before trying to get above. It did pull back a bit in the PM yesterday).

In spite of volume, SPX has a momentum of sorts as indicated by the big pink box down in the TD Pressure chart at the bottom of th Daily Chart. The solid green line that is overlayed on the FIB line (100%) that begins at the “X”, is a TD indicator. It is usually a dashed line, and turns solid when it becomes support instead of resistance. This suggests to me that SPX will go for at least 4 more days where the close is higher than the close 2 bars previously (which is a TD methodology called the SELL Countdown). After that, a reversal is expected within 12 bars (days in this case). If not, then the countdown was a false signal.

TD Pressure is overbought and stretched (the pink box). This usually means that the overbought condition will continue. A low risk SELL will be indicated when the TD Pressure falls back below the red signal line.

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-B185_4BA1426E.html

So far, there is nothing new here. It looks like more upward momentum with only the soupçon of a promise that a retrace of some kind will come.

If you want an edge, here is something that was posted on Sunday night. You were told that based on data going back to 1982 – when the modern era of FED pumping began – that there was a very high probability that SPX would stay above the 55DMA for quite a while. So why was every little slip down greeted as the seed of P3?

 http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14880 . Here are the probabilities from that post: ” the odds are 4% / 40% =  10% that SPX will go below the 55DMA in the next week. The odds are  90% that SPX will stay above the 55DMA for longer. Please note that this does not necessarily mean the SPX will go up. It could go sideways and the 55DMA could come up to meet it, crossing from below.”

I will tell you now that when there are two days in a row such as we’ve had, the highest probability is for another one. The next highest is for the inverse. But,  most of the identical occurences of the same bars (a  15 followed by a 14) that we have had over the last 28 years have led to a third day where the close is near the HOD – no matter where the open is in relation to the LOD.

ES Overnight sold off along with the EUR and bottomed at 1157ish. THere wasn’t any typical technical reason for the bottom.  There were 40 5min bars of red with only 4 white bars. Was the PPT overnight stooge on a coffee break? (take that conspiracy theorists. lol).  To feed the fire, Volume was at its highest right when the reversal occured off the bottom. heh. I don’t know why the charts I save at work aren’t the same resolution as the ones from home – but there it is.

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-3AFF_4BA1FC20.html

The point is that ES is back at resistance at 1160. If you look at the chart, you can see the tidy methodical TD numbers in green for the BUY setup. The TD pressure shows how each release aove the green line was met by additional selling. Someone or something was trying to initiate or close out a position. Notice how the jump in volumes at the bottom did NOTHING for the price – 4 times the volume in each 5 minute time frame, and barely a move up.

The green dashed lines on the chart are TDST Up ines. They mark the highest point of the most recent BUY setup (the green numbers). While it is dashed, it is porous and can be moved across freely in either direction. IF it becomes solid, it becomes support.

IF ES is falling, reverses, and clears the line – it suggests that the trend has really reversed, as opposed to a small retrace where the downward direction would resume. The blue picket fence is additional resistance on top of the pivot. the yellow picket fence has become a short term support.

Pivots:

  •  R2: 1171.50 = A lot of territory between here and there for the day before OPEX. I think that this level is safe for the time being.
  • R1: 1166.25 = The new ‘black’.  This is where the HOD was yesterday, and certainly it has a target on its back.  The march there off of the 1138 bottom, after the ramp at the close on Monday, was pretty much straight up. I think that ES needs to consolidate a bit before attempting another run. (Time for a sandwhich PPT-Boy).
  • Neutral: 1160 = the current roof.  We’re in uncharted waters, so there is no prior indication how this level will behave. It was strong resistance – and now, after being penetrated brutally?
  • S1: 1155 = Another unknown as a support level.
  • S2: 1149 = This is more familiar. A converted reistance area is usually the toughest support.

FX

I’m not going to say much here. Just thanks to the market spirits for being so generous with cash for my account. The ride has been fun, if a little wild.

The EUR was under some selling pressure overnight, and after seeing 2 – 4 pip candles in the earlier session, the 10 – 20 pip ones looked monstrous.  There seems to be decent bids (support) around 1.3650, and selling up around 1.37. Still, a 50 pip range makes for some nice quick trades. If I may paraphrase Trader1: EUR is a dirty girl. Don’t try to make a mistress your wife. (Please modify the genders as you feel is appropriate and politically correct. heh.)

NEWS

The Greece bailout is the master of “now you see it. now you don’t”, and the latest sentiment is “you don’t” – so the EUR is under some selling pressure. If the correlation holds, the same should be true for SPX. I would think that buyers would be saving their ammo for the games tomorrow – so it’s probable.

It seems that ANZ banking group in the land of Oz has noticed hat the demand for credit has been growing in recent weeks. While too early for a trend, it is the first time that this has happened in a year. Demand is being driven by corporates who are apparently encouraged by the strengthening domestic economy. This is NOT to be discounted. BUT, it could be a result of China money flowing into the region buying real assets with FRNs.

Bernanke doesn’t want the FED to become a ‘too-big-to-fail’ regulator. He doesn’t want that responsibility. Yes, it would be terrible to actually have to work for a living protecting people against vampire squids. Bernanke states that the FED needs to have insights into the entire banking system. Well, they certainly need something having missed completely the last 30 crises.

India is apparently bidding over China for Potash imports to ensure supply. Got POT anyone? Brazil keeps their interest rates low (8.75% – how’s that for a kick in the pills?), but signals an increase in April. Why are they the only country, besides Zimbabwe, showing inflation? Don’t they buy from China like everybody else?

Mark Gilbert of Bloomberg reports that Chuck Norris jokes are being recycled with more recent themes. Some samples include:

Chuck Norris feeds his vampire squid $100 bills that he got from Geithner. He trades Repo 105s with the FED and only pays 104 for them, and his auditors have signed off on them as true sales. Chuck Norris plays golf with Tiger most weekends and lets his girfriend caddy for the golfer.He totes his own bag and wins by two holes. Moody’s has pledged to maintain the USA AAA rating as long as Chuck Norris resides there.

DATA

CPI and all it’s subsets at 8:30AM EDT. Jobless claims. Current account balance. At 10AM it’s the Philly Fed and Leading Indicators (If the stock market is the main indicator, you know that this will be bullish. forewarned….).

Well, one of my EUR traps has sprung and I’m off to see what I caught.  I hope that it doesn’t bite.

Cheers.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • alexdg

    Angela Merkl has just said that any bailout for Greece is an IMF matter.
    In other news, many chinese factories are running on thin 3% profit-margins. Exporters warn the government that any valuation of the Yuan would send them out of business.

  • gmak

    Here are the correlations for OPEX week, including the previous Thursday, going all the way back to May of 1982. As you can see, they are pretty weak Intra-day refers to Close / Open return. Interday refers to Close / prev close.

    As you can see, the highest correlation is a negative one between the Thursday before the OPEX week, and the Monday of. This correlation is suspect – and so is every other one. Another myth-take exposed.

    Intra-Day Return OPEX Prev Thurs OPEX Mon OPEX Tue OPEX Wed OPEX Thu
    OPEX
    Prev Thurs 5.27%
    OPEX Mon 2.34% -21.92%
    OPEX Tue 5.93% 3.78% -6.92%
    OPEX Wed -4.88% 10.26% -5.27% -10.48%
    OPEX Thu 8.19% -10.73% 2.86% -3.27% -3.59%

    Inter-Day Return OPEX Prev Thurs OPEX Mon OPEX Tue OPEX Wed OPEX Thu
    OPEX
    Prev Thurs 6.77%
    OPEX Mon -0.77% -22.66%
    OPEX Tue 8.25% 1.76% -4.99%
    OPEX Wed -5.77% 10.44% -6.65% -11.80%
    OPEX Thu 7.31% -9.89% 3.82% -2.46% -4.57%

  • gatopeich

    Yeah but who cares? we got the momentum and stuff, don't we? 😉

    Thanks for the post gmak! *I hear you* And I know market could not care less about the real economy!

  • gmak

    Here is hopefully a better view of the correlation tables.

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-0BFB_4BA20C6C.html

  • alexdg

    Correct. Follow the momentum, keep an eye on the exits and be nimble.

  • gmak

    Final Try. Note that the Blue is INTER day, not intra day. Having tech issues as I try to change some text errors.

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-0BFB_4BA20C6C.html

  • bobthehorse

    This board is now 75% bulls. Hilarious.

  • bobthehorse

    Having said that, I am short and offside so who's the idiot?

  • Tom_27

    Hi Bob,

    What is your intermediate target? Thank you in advance.

  • gatopeich

    The question is “who's the sucker”, and it's me! (short too).

  • bobthehorse

    920 on S&P

  • alexdg

    JPM buying SPY?
    Fedex beat est. says modest recovery, -3% on pre-market. DJIA on par for open.

  • Tom_27

    Thank you.

  • alexdg

    No inflation, jobs under control. Bernanke and Tim save the World. Barrack is God.
    SPX and DJI positive for open.

  • gatopeich

    Yeah, and Spain sold 2 billion € in 30-year bonds ar 4.75% but that's all right, we'll grow our GDP at twice that pace, if not more. (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-18/spa…)
    And seeking to sell another 200 billion this year… Who is the sucker? (I keep getting the same answer :-P).
    Like “Sallie Mae”, lending at 5% and borrowing at 8%…

  • gatopeich

    What a mess! 🙂
    Those correlations look too small to be of significance, why don't you compare weeks: OPEX's vs. prev and next and see if you get anything?
    I just don't have the data for OPEX stuff…

  • alexdg

    Portugal just borrowed an additional 2.5Beur this week in 2 auctions. All happy and joyful getting a lower rate than before (1 month before?). It's all good! Happy times are back! The collapse is postponed by a year or two.

  • AudioTactics

    Yesterday, I capitulated…

    The market had run me over since being short from much earlier and I took a very big loss. I just needed to clear my thoughts. Today, I am looking to see what happens. Can the market take out yesterday's highs?

    Market still appears strong under the surface and the melt up may continue but we are due for a retracement soon. I will let the market show its hand this time…

    I could also make the bull argument. Earnings look good and have been relatively strong. Money is still under-allocated to stocks relative to historical norms. Don't fight the Fed as they are attempting to re-inflate stock prices etc…

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know the feeling. When you are wrong-footed, it is painful to cut your losses and becomes even more painful not to with each passing day.

  • gatopeich

    Sorry about your loss.

    I would not take for granted that the FED has “re-inflating stocks” as a goal. They are just feeding free $$$ to their cronies, like they have been doing for 30 years. Market is running uncontrolled IMO, no actor has enough leverage over it to make a difference on its own.

    Compared to most posters here, I don't know shit about TA. From what I read I find arguments in favor of a continued melt-up, with a severe pullback sometime before the Summer, which I am betting for. I am not buying the case for a P3 anymore, because even if it happens I don't feel able to distinguish it from another bear trap.

    We could go straight to hell (neofeudalism, hyperinflation, wage slavery) while the markets keep melting up. That would favor the rich and powerful, so why not? BTW, a mayority of the world's population is under wage slavery already, it really does not take much to complete the scenario.

    The question is about how to preserve/grow patrimony during the times to come.

  • Nightwind

    Nothing wrong with that. Hell, I capitulate everyday…

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    Is Corporal Carrot on vacation, or has he moved on to another blog?

  • gatopeich

    A year or two? Did the borrow that much?

    They said the same about a lower rate for Spain, accounting for one point (0.01%) lower than the bids just before the sale. No surprise on news being skewed to the bull side, but this one is on the verge of “plain lie”.

    BTW, Spain wanted to place 5.5B and it just placed 5.0. Of course it is just another success.

    What is the theory about extreme bullishness in the media? Anyway let's not try to predict. Let's wait and see…

  • alexdg

    Ever since the Greece panic has calmed down, Portugal (and Spain I guess) have been making up for lost time and issuing alot of debt. Portugal has to “recycle” some 28Beur maturing bonds and issue some extra 8-10Beur for deficit funding.

  • gatopeich

    Countries with more debt that they can attend is now part of The New Normal.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “The question is about how to preserve/grow patrimony during the times to come.”

    Just pass another amendment letting US Army on the Streets of US Cities

    “WHAT civil disobedience?”

  • MMM___Soylent

    He just got a Porsche GT3 RS. We should not expect to hear from him again for a few weeks…

  • ricebowl

    “Most traders are using some version of it, crunching the same numbers, looking for nuances in the same signal lines and moving averages, staring hollow-eyed at the same Fibonacci numbers and lines, drawing the same trend lines with trembling hands.”

    Any type of TA that millions of traders believe in is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I am absolutely positive that Pee on the Tree just started
    It is confirmed
    I can feel it
    it is running down my leg…
    I am getting really old

  • ricebowl

    Miss Cleo told me the same thing!

  • MMM___Soylent

    No. The Vampire Squid takes the other side of that trade and takes our money. They love it!

  • Gold_Gerb
  • alexdg

    interesting (even though small) divergence on the dji vs spx. is the dji playing catch up? and confirmation of a higher high.

  • ricebowl

    Don't underestimate those actors' ability to collude.

    Also, there was a paper that I read recently (on Zero Hedge maybe?) discussing the amount of capital that would be required to manipulate the market. It is surprisingly small. For a market worth trillions of dollars, a mere tens of billions would be required to push the S&P 500 up to its current level from ~900. All of the investment banks have access to that kind of capital. Also, if there is actual collusion going on, then it would be trivial for them to push the market up so long as the retail investor and 401K contributor continue to believe in economic recovery and maintain the status quo. The latter, by the way, accounts for most of the market, yet they are the least well-educated when it comes to valuations.

  • AudioTactics

    Over the next week, you will see a shift out of high-beta small caps into lower beta big-cap stocks

  • MMM___Soylent

    Yeah, that thing does remind me of Lloyd Blankfein.

  • gatopeich

    What, no talk about P3 starting today?

  • Shaka_Zulu

    A lot less cash needed if they do it with the /ES mini contract. And with as much lying going on as there is, I wouldn't believe that anyone is making the bank prop desks post any margin.

  • Shaka_Zulu

    I'm superstitious. That is a good sign.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    so it MUST be true!…that we are getting older

  • gatopeich

    Guess what was the last comment on the bullish site I check before a 50-point red candle?
    “Be warned: we are about to break new highs!”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    need to be 95% to short the hell out of this market (95% of traders lose money)

  • alexdg

    Didn't even bother to read the yesterday's STU from EWI…

  • bobthehorse

    If, and it is a big if, the market falls today then yesterdays highs would not have been confirmed on our money flow data, i.e. there will have been divergence , a decent signal for a short-term pull-back at the very least. And all big pull-backs begin with a short-term one!

  • I_got_Prechterized

    it was probably EWI- the last time they were bullish.

  • MMM___Soylent

    I am not a bull, but as a wounded bear, I will wait for a slower pitch to swing at. I closed my short yesterday. Capitulation sucks!

  • gatopeich

    “Growth will be even stronger than the 5.9%” we saw for the end of 2009, David Ranson says, citing a narrow credit spread of 1.01 percentage points, only slightly above the recent low of 0.97. “That's pretty tight.” he says. “It suggests there isn't anything seriously wrong with the economy at this stage.”

    LOL!

  • AudioTactics

    Here is my view… market internals still appear healthy so big players who are long will not be sellers here. In addition, we have support 10 points below here so the risk/reward to selling here is not good if the market bounces off of support. We need to figure out where and when selling will come in. In my view, if we can't move up for the next few days (Th-Fri-Mon) then we will see profit taking on Monday afternoon or Tuesday. Of course we could see weakness at any time given that the market is overbought but I'm guessing there's a lot of shorts out there which is why the dips are bought. It would almost be better to sell into weakness or wait for confirmation but then again that 1150 support area is right below so its not clear this time. I think a small short position is appropriate here.

  • Cypherd

    Shorted some X @ 61.50. Mental stop at 52wk high.

  • gatopeich

    “The latter, by the way, accounts for most of the market, yet they are the least well-educated when it comes to valuations.”

    Exactly, so at the end of the day they are the big actor, educated or not.

    I was not meaning FED has no power, but that they are not so intelligent or well planned.

  • Nightwind

    Long FAZ, small position

  • alexdg

    Update for Wednesday, March 17, 2010; 5:10 PM, Eastern.

    [Bottom Line]: The Dow Industrial's new recovery high erases the inter-market non-confirmations and aligns this index with the other major stock indexes. On a near term basis however, the rise is severely extended.

    Today the Dow Industrials confirmed the new recovery high in the other major stock indexes, including the Transports. The push above 10,729.90, the January 19 high means that Primary wave 2 (circle) is still unfolding, contrary to the stance we've held since that high. The precious metals remain well beneath their respective December highs, the CRB commodities index remains beneath its January high, oil is near its January high, but, so far, has yet to exceed it. And the dollar remains well above its November extreme. Each of these other markets remains in synch with our overall forecast, but that does not mitigate the frustration of having to endure another leg of Primary wave 2 (circle) in stocks.

  • ricebowl

    There's a difference between being bullish and being a trader. The correct move from the recent 1086 low was to go long. Most of us had a can of whoopass opened on us in the move up from there.

    I sold out at 1140 and reshorted today, and there's nothing bullish about paring your losses. I'm now shorter than a Chinaman.

  • alexdg

    This weekly chart shows the clearest wave structure, a five-wave decline from October 2007 to March 2009. The decline is labeled Primary wave 1 (circle) of Cycle wave c, which implies that the next major market move will be Primary wave 3 (circle) down. In the June 2009 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter discussed why it is a lower probability view to consider a flat formation ending in March 2009 (please review that discussion). The rise from March 2009 remains Primary wave 2 (circle). The new recovery high is not a reason to turn bullish, as the bear market rally remains aged. A 3/5 retracement (60%) is 1212.37, which is very close to the 1213.01 level, an open gap from the close on September 26, 2008. The 61.8% retracement is 1228.74. We cannot handicap the odds for a continued push higher, but if the index continues to subdivide, the 1212-1229 area is the next potential stopping point.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    well, at least they're considering the possibility of significant upside still remaining. this won't end until they give up.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    energy the only sector with any decent weakness.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    nice pop in the DXY

  • AlexDG

    Because history repeats itself in the exact way, one more “calling the top at X marks the spot”:

    At the October 2007 peak, the DJIA had exceeded its July 2007 wave (3) high by 176 points, or 1.25%. A similar percentage today would target the area surrounding 10,864.00, but, again, this should not be taken as a firm forecast. A 3/5 (60% ) retracement of Primary 1 (circle) is 11,107.00, while a 61.8% retracement is 11,246.00. If the Dow continues to subdivide, the 10,864-11,246 area is the next potential stopping area.

    the fibo I can live with. 🙂

  • Gold_Gerb

    ..just a little gap filling.
    Dude, what's with the avatar? I almost threw up.
    ;-D

  • marcT

    me too… they haven't even admitted that they're wrong in calling the P2 top… it seems like they're just trying to find anything they can use to call a top.

  • Gold_Gerb

    so they're <ahem> topless so to speak?
    ;-D

  • AlexDG

    Should have kept with the fundamentals, and shorted NatGas! (-4.44% today @ $4.10).

    “Jesus, can’t make a buck in this market, country’s going to hell faster than when that sonofabitch Roosevelt was around… too much cheap money sloshing around the world. The biggest mistake we ever made was letting Nixon get off the gold standard.
    Stick to the fundamentals, that’s how IBM and Hilton were built…good things sometimes take time.”

    😉

  • AlexDG

    That is a forecast the STU seems to get right:

    The [U.S. Dollar Index] appears to completing an ending diagonal (EWP, p.36) for wave c (circle) of 4. If so, the index should soon vault higher; this will be the start of wave 5 up. A rise above 80.40 should be large enough to confirm this push. There are two upside targets right now. The first is 81.90-82.15, the top end of which is where wave 5 would be .618 times wave 1. The second target range is 83.72-83.79, which includes the point where wave 5 would equal wave 1. A decline beneath 78.45 would negate the wave structure in the manner in which we currently count.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro dumping but equities holding up. Broken record.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    so, what was the so called news that popped the dollar? something with greece? equities don't care.

  • Schwerepunkt

    It's just those stingy Germans. Don't want to subsidize Greek sloth.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    if the correlation breaks, then Prechter's whole thesis is shot, right? He says all the time, “A bulll market is when stocks and the dollar rise together.”

  • AlexDG

    Which should be bullish for EURUSD actually… because that means the EUR would survive with the fittest economies, even if that means that one or two of the PIIGS fall off the wagon. After all the impact of UE GDP wouldn't be significative, and it would avoid the careless and moral hazard of “to big to fail”. Of course a Greece default could have some unknown short-term consequences and that's why either way the Eur will fall. Or so goes the HedgeFund rational.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    House ready to vote on health care this Sunday. That could be the “news” event that might turn this mkt for good.

  • skynard

    $940B? No problem, just charge it to the next generation.

  • AlexDG

    I think that has been broken for some time now.
    When the dollar devalued it was said the market would rise because stocks were cheaper in foreign currencies and it was a sign of inflation, etc etc etc. But we've seen the USD value against the Euro (main rival) for a couple of months, the eurusd / spx divergence kept growing. Some author on ZeroHedge suggested the trade (some 2 weeks ago) : Long EURUSD and Short SPX, betting on the end of the divergence. I guess today you would be crying getting beaten up with a double whammy.

  • AlexDG

    They say it will reduce the deficit…

  • skynard

    It will be paid by raising taxes. What do you think O's next policies will be?

  • AlexDG

    Raise the debt level for the USA, issue more t-bills and have Ben buy them up?

  • Nightwind

    Bernanke Wants to Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely (INSANE)
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bernanke-w

  • bobthehorse

    rumour of fed to hike discount rate

  • Tronacate

    s 1NQ from 1938

  • I_got_Prechterized

    gmak, hope you're not long the Euro.

  • Schwerepunkt

    rumour on trading desks or CNBC? I don't have the television on.

  • amokta

    Are we a top-top-topping??

  • I_got_Prechterized

    VIX shows noone even slightly worried about a drop. perfect time to tank this sucker. just as STU went quasi-bullish.

  • Tronacate

    I used to be a radical muslim…….now I'm a moderate Jew…….Prechter is right….

  • Schwerepunkt

    huh?

  • Schwerepunkt

    huh?

  • Tronacate

    Well……..he says “Radical Islam is becoming more moderate”………

  • Tronacate
  • skynard

    Anyone hear latest from McHugh?

  • Tronacate

    I think he is looking for one more little up down……then P3

  • Tronacate

    Hey…..SRS might creep back to 6 today…..kicking some ass there

  • skynard

    Wait! WTF is this! Can it be true? The full STO on SPX is no longer imbedded! Sell, Mortimer, Sell!

  • Tronacate

    Jeez……I'm shocked as shit…..my NQ short is green here

  • I_got_Prechterized

    yes, congrats to SRS longs who got a piece of the $.02 rise today. That's a monster move after like 40 straight down days.

  • gatopeich

    Are you sure? maybe you became color blind in the meanwhile…

  • Tronacate

    I've always been color blind…….I'm like Stephen Colbert

  • bananaben

    What's happening? Is the market going down? How is this possible?

  • Tronacate

    Fuck yeah baby………I feel like Blankfein floating to heaven on a golden parachute

  • ricebowl
  • Nightwind

    ok,..ok,…what bear capitualated?

  • AlexDG

    LOL!

  • Gold_Gerb

    “it's a trap!”
    😀

  • Gold_Gerb

    perhaps you bought a call?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Panic over. We now resume our regularly scheduled programming.

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^^^funny stuff

  • Schwerepunkt
  • I_got_Prechterized

    hochberg

  • Tronacate

    Nice history

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    12:06 was probably LOD

  • gatopeich

    What? You're not calling SPAR…? (I'm not superstitious, but just in case).

  • amokta

    The Uk banks seem to have had a declination today
    We must be approaching Bearmageddon?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    fast stochastic hit 0, slow hit 2% we were below the lower bb but got inside again… i'd be surprised if there was a new LOD

  • gatopeich

    Can I get those in TOS?

  • Gold_Gerb

    My moving average was broken, so i'm waiting for a intraday rise to backtest.
    then short, yeah, i'm an idiot, but a very small one!
    (if my moving average is crossed again say oh tomorrow gap up big!, that's my exit).

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    EVen if we are topping here short term..most bears will be nervous as hell..and will rush to cover as soon as any dip looks like it is being bought again..net result that when it does turn there will be few left in the game….

  • gatopeich

    LOL, you'd be surprised if SPX loses 1 point from where it is now. This just shows how badly this market has beaten steel rats lately.
    I would not be surprised by a 5 points move in any direction! (yes I got even more beaten).

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    setup for
    slow stochastic (lazy hamster v2) 416, 312 minutes
    fast stochastic (spinning hamster v2) 208, 80 minutes

    Daily walk Bollinger with 208 minutes ma (normal width i.e. 2)
    (sometimes it's useful having the 104 as well and even the 52)

  • gatopeich

    Thanks bro! And may the Market surprise you today!

  • Nightwind

    Somethings wrong, I actually have two stops in the green.

  • bobthehorse

    well in Europe, we now have a confirmed non-confirmation. Otherwise known as a divergence on the money flow data. If you are short, this is good news.

  • Tronacate

    NQ 5 min forming a nice little__________……….unnamed pattern

  • Nightwind

    I'm counting 5 waves down off the spx high on 5 min….

  • Tronacate

    SRS approaching the majik 6

  • gatopeich

    I'm counting the 0.38 points left to gat again at SPX's LOD, cent by cent… 0.33 … 0.09! Okay, let's restart…

  • Nightwind

    Got to be cautious, it could turn into a ABC of larger degree. I'm playing the small moves.

  • Schwerepunkt

    TRIN actually got above 2.0 on that little move down. Still, the point loss on ES was pretty modest.

  • Tronacate

    TRIN correlation seems pretty poor these days………

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    that was a pigment of your imagination

  • gmak

    Maybe this weekend……

    ________________________________

  • chronographics

    We just may have completed five waves down in the EUR from 1.3820 at 1.3585 or could possibly still see a marginal new low. Hope you have enjoyed the ride.

  • Tronacate

    I'm calling the top is in……..time for 300% short……….

  • Tronacate

    From here on out……the selling will do nothing but accelerate.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    “The possibility of a discount rate hike would never leak out of the Fed,” said Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “We would only know when we see it.”

    Never…say Never!

  • AlohaBear

    GE announced today will research and develop cadmium telluride solar panels to compete with FSLR

  • Tronacate

    SO much for FSLR…….

  • Gold_Gerb

    okay, FAZ 13.95 – selling the house, backing up the truck <beep beep beep>
    😉

    *nia

  • Tronacate

    Yeah baby……..the whole farm…….

  • ricebowl

    Buy March FAZ 15 calls!!!!! THEY ARE CHEAP RIGHT NOW!!!!@

  • Gold_Gerb

    March 15's! 3cents. are you frakin nuts?
    call you NuttyRiceBowl.
    😉

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    This upward selling is scary sh!t…..

  • Tronacate

    Wierd isn't it……..

  • Tronacate

    Wierd isn't it……..

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    not sure I'd call it wierd….not quite selling either….buying perhaps ?!!

  • ricebowl

    Being facetious. I am short FAZ calls right now. I like the idea of shorting ITM April FAZ puts here, though.

  • Tronacate

    And selling at a higher price……..

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    This conversations going nowhere….unlike the market which keeps going up….

  • Tronacate

    Anybody feel like they've been sucking bull cock for awhile???

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ladies and rats, we've been venting overbought by basicaly going sideways for a while (but still rising)

    quick quiz for rats… what happens when there is room for real pumping?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, I'm sure it's gone from my mouth and up my ass at least for the last 7 months

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I give up…what happens when there is room from real pumping ?….

  • ricebowl

    Tastes great, less filling!

  • Gold_Gerb

    Ditto, I give up.
    Pumping usually follows by dumping.
    and there's a whole lot of dumping due.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    have you tested them?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil, what i'm saying is that dumping is taking place in an horizontal way, you're distributing on slight rise…. you're dumping and reducing overbought…. what happens when you get to oversold?

  • Tronacate

    At least that stopped the gagging…….

  • Tronacate

    BIG POP……..

  • Tronacate

    Bear fucking?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you haven't considered that hamster size / bull cock lenght ratio does not perclude continued gagging

  • Gold_Gerb

    I follow you on the first part [ slight rise ]
    not following the 2nd and 3rd. less cryptic plz.

  • Tronacate

    Bull cock insert into rectum????

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    go to the front of the class and receive your dow 12.000 tinfoil hat

  • Tronacate

    Well…..I wouldn't understand anyways because True Christianstm don't suck bull cock.

  • Gold_Gerb

    FAZ 14+ – Tron yer a genius.

    where do I send the massive check to?

  • Tronacate

    Thanks for the clap people…….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you're getting away from upper bb's and draining away overbought condition, so in some days, weeks, a bounce from the central ma's can make a rocket rise to 1200's that breaks your ass

  • Tronacate

    Just send your massive to my wife……she'll appreciate it more

  • BobbyLow

    TRIN like a lot of other indicators have not been reliable indicators as of late. Also what if the Boyz are buying SDS? Do these transactions show up as Positive Ticks?

    And then there is Volume. C was trading over a Billion Shares on by itself a few days ago. How much did C distort the already anemic Volume Numbers on the NYSE?

    My #1 Axiom is that the Stock Market is Completely Full of Shit at All Times.

    And in recent months, this Axiom has proven itself to be absolutely correct.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not here tron… btw, have you talked to deacon? still no sign of password reset

  • Gold_Gerb

    agreed, central ma's can be a PAIN & dangerous.

  • Tronacate

    No……need to do that…….e-mail me at tronacate@gmail.com………that's my garbage spot…….I'll see what I can do

  • lululopez

    What could possibly go wrong?!

    From Bernake's testimony,footnote #9:

    The Federal Reserve believes it is possible that, ultimately, its operating framework will allow the elimination of minimum reserve requirements, which impose costs and distortions on the banking system.
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testim

    There is a Yahoo finance article on this topic, but am no longer able to find it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    done

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and one is 1143 and rising fast

  • Gold_Gerb

    which timeframe? gimme the specs.

  • Gold_Gerb

    which timeframe? gimme the specs.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Where are we going….and why are we in this handbasket?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil, you know the bands…

  • Tronacate

    Got it sent……we'll see what happens……let me know if you don't hear back…….I'll post in the forums if necessary

  • Tronacate

    IYR actually showing some weakness……might lead everything here……

  • Nightwind

    LMAO

  • Gold_Gerb

    13,1.618?
    there's so many!!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    they cannot be serious …wait…
    we are letting them so they CAN

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    they go to 42nd street?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks

  • skynard

    ROC non-confirmation on DJI for this move, maybe waiting for DJI to complete it's bout.

  • monicadern

    Mole, if you read this, can you tell me where I can find the ISEE index and how to calculate the 10 MA on it?

  • Tronacate

    Lower high on the NQ………P3 here we go

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?catego
    select “all equities only”

  • monicadern

    Really appreciate it. Thank you! Looks like we have come down a little on the ISEE but 10 MA is around 200. ISEE not as high as precrash levels but still pretty high. What to think, what to think.

  • skynard

    OK, not gana jinx it this time………Huhhhhhh

  • Shaka_Zulu

    Thank you! Somebody said you were joking yesterday anyway. Sorry if I don't know your posting history.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    The market is all aces and CNBC is hummingly bullish.

    Maria is singing for the first time since this rally began.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    All the big vol days of F are negative since it left $10 behind
    There was never any vol brkout this climb around
    F is america's most loved stock now
    …all the Cramer fans + the Mole's boot shine gals

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my 12:06 LOD might hold, what happens after we doji?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Just covered my trading add on F short, but stock looks interesting from here (I'm stuck from 13.20, so I averaged up in my own weird way).

  • Shaka_Zulu

    What the hell was that rocket ride to 1165?

  • chronographics

    Thats almost enuff to make me puke! met her very briefly in hong kong in the mid 90's. She was very self important, even then, most of us didn't get it. I mean she's not even the size of a descent Hamster is she?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    She's exactly the size of a decent hamster

  • chronographics

    Lol so you met her too then 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I don't even care how we close today, but if /es will close tomorrow above yesterday's high – Monday could be Black Monday for all I care

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    saw her once

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    for how long she was calling you after that?

  • skynard

    Looks to be a gravestone doji on SPX. Can someone confirm that?

  • PRSGuitars

    Would you mind explicating a bit? Thanks a bunch for your views — always good to have a different perspective (Eur-focused) on things.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    DOW needs to put in it's high, 10 points away. They need the media leading with that story.

  • goldpackers

    SHORT X Bearish engulfing yesterday! 53 at least.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    tomorrow

  • I_got_Prechterized

    yup, it'll be the headline all weekend.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    holy crap, they did it again. SPY might do it's 15th straight up day.

  • Shaka_Zulu

    Whoop! There it is!

  • goldpackers

    Believe spx hits 1175 and go short!!!!!!!!!!!

  • goldpackers

    Bought april 113 puts y'day. CHEAP! Still long PLD EMC let GE go.

  • Shaka_Zulu

    Couldn't get SPY green for 7 measly cents.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    oh god, wasn't seeing her like THAT

  • I_got_Prechterized

    someone's getting fired over this. report is Ben B called an emergency afterhours meeting.

  • Gold_Gerb

    did someone say F?
    thanks for your past contributions CD,
    maybe you'll like this long term F chart.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-2C8B_4BA279CE.html

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Do you know The Twilight Zone?
    …Maria perfect for so many character possibilities there. Like a doll that never stops talking, etc

  • Shaka_Zulu

    LOL! Probably how it really works. The FRB is really a Satanic cult and when you disgrace the Familly, you have to submit to forced sodomy. That's why Benron always has that look on his face.

  • chronographics

    I must say I like your new pic. Its got BooB in that (now familiar) “Oh shit I just screwed my subs again” look.

  • ricebowl

    It's not rape if he wants it.

  • K.I.M.
  • kanur

    and now for a heartwarming…er, I mean terrible, disturbing story:

    Madoff Beaten in Prison

    http://bit.ly/cB8obo

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Business week, WSJ, Forbes all will have front page with bear porn saying:
    “Cramer having you long time forever”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Could be that bOOb will appear on national TV tonight and explain that: “P3 IS in fact in progress and only stupid degenerates (usual stupid grin on his ugly face) are not capable of seeing it”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    hey – I still have Mar 70 puts – I can give them to you FREE!!!!

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Interesting opinion piece on a Chinese bubble:

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/201

  • zenob

    Maybe he found out why they call it the “pokie”.

  • Gold_Gerb

    China has no social safety net? OMG! – hey does the U.S. ?!?

    time for me to adopt some <ahem> 'pets'.
    http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/03/09/chi

  • Scoops

    The problem with Richard Russel among others touting this:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL

    is that the markets were in the drink last year, and set so many extremes, that of course there will be a large amount of new highs. Look today how that has collapsed from over 550 yesterday to 341 today. Funny how the Dow was up after the sheep bought into the you know what confirmation.

  • Scoops

    CPCE MA on the cusp of a new low.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1

    This one, not so much.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCI&p=D&yr=1

  • K.I.M.

    is this count still valid ?

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

  • rosocecasita

    http://goo.gl/fBJp

    Base has solid support, a rise up leads to a Rising EMA 23 Crossing Rising MA 59, very bullish, IMNSHO.

  • rosocecasita

    Can (2) of C intersect 1 of (1) ?

  • K.I.M.

    not sure, but could it be that eurusd started 5 with 1,38 and we ended 5 on spx and started a !

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    A blueprint is an essential aspect of any complex project or strategy. Having a detailed plan of action that encourages objectivity, and maps out a method to deal with unforeseen events is critical. The POH strategy is an ideal game plan to execute during an uptrending market http://bit.ly/9Zx4If

  • bananaben

    Here's a good segment from Yahoo Tech Ticker that explains what has been going on. We have all been idiots to short this bullshit market:

    http://tinyurl.com/yjsgawy

    Somehow secretly liquidity is still going to find it's way into the market even after the end of this month. I hope I'm wrong on this but it's all smoke and mirrors now.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    as insulting for me as eating the cow for Indians

  • PRSGuitars

    Absolutely, i couldnt even watch it — too horrible to think about. Anna would shit herself.

  • BobbyLow

    Earlier David DT said that he had some March 70 Puts you could have for free.

    During the last week of February, I owned a bunch of March 107 Puts and sold them for $1.10. Of course I was in them for $2.20 net so that was a tidy loss. As of this moment they are bid .01.

    Over a period of the last 3 or 4 months I've had Back Spreads, Vertical Spreads, Calender Spreads and traded my ass off to keep my head above water. Once they saved the S&P by reversing the “correction” on February 5th everything went out the window.

    So after repeatedly getting jerked around with IV and Theta Burn, trading SPY options in the longer term is not in my immediate plans.

    So for now, I'm still net Delta short but have a combination of Short SSO Stock, Naked SDS Puts and some Long SPY Stock as a hedge that I put back on today after I took my hedge off yesterday. This market now has me almost completely neutered.

    I'll have to wait until this current bout of insanity plays out in the market to see which side I add and which side I reduce.

    But speaking of insanity, I might be the one that is insane for even screwing around with this market.

  • http://www.marketfeel.com/ MarketFeel

    interesting to see the bulls here now

  • tywo

    i have posted an update for the asx 200 for any aussie traders out there interested….

    http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/asx-200-

    enjoy the weekend!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nice printed-in-the-newspaper looking theme. Nice channel too.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Just saying…a huge part of the consumer debt “payoffs” have actually been credit card company finally recognizing write-offs on bad debt….the debt doesn't exist anymore…..it wasn't paid off, just wrote off.

    Article I saw said about 90% of the payoff was really write off.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yeah thats cheaper than selling them on the trading fees….But I bet people will take my Mar 80 puts even faster!!!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Thats f'n funny!

  • jesterx

    Great post. I think we can get higher according to my 1930 cheat sheet playbook.

    after we get up a bit higher in April there will be trouble ahead…

    http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/mw.htm

  • K.I.M.

    another eu4h chart with waves http://s3.amazonaws.com/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Dictionary definition of deflation right there.

  • kanur

    Does anyone know why Denniger's forum was in a lockdown the past few market sessions? If he's freaking out now when the market is a well contained range and edging higher, what will happen when TRSHTF?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Now this is potentially interesting if it carries on in its current direction – another fear-o-meter to keep an eye on at any rate

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&b=5&g

  • PRSGuitars

    Since it's quiet tonight I'll toss out a treat:

    TF 133 and 133of133 — http://screencast.com/t/ZGYxY2M3ZDk

    been saving this for a few days to see if it was legit but it seems we're popping a little right now so I'm going to go out on a limb and call for another push higher. Sucks.

    Just like it says on the chart: find a channel, extend it 133.3% (yellow line) and 133.3*133.3%=177.69% if you so desire (green line). Treat those lines as though they were part of the establish channel line-set.

    This is no official policy, but I may be toning down the 133 posting (as I have been as of late). I need to really understand the beast before I just keep posting about it.

    I want to codify and explain the nuances of 133 theory so I can easily communicate the three main concepts (the 133.3% extension, concentric 133'ing, and sub-133'ing — a nifty little tool that still to me makes almost no sense unless I've somehow discovered an Avogadro-esqe numeric miscreant, aka 133.3%, that explains the entire stock market [highly unlikely]).

    As I have no blog and no means of promoting myself nor making a cent off of this method (outside of trading it with my own capital), I am really unsure of how best to utilize this tactic without exploding it onto the trading masses (as if people would really trust channel extensions, much less know how to input them into their charting platform). The thing I want to see least is traders learn it, misuse it or over-use it, and it becomes nullified (or worse still, disappears entirely as an enigma to itself).

    I have about 100 charts with commentary, spanning all asset classes (save for bonds, god knows I don't watch those). I didn't even look back into pre-June 2009 charts — makes me sick to think of how many I've missed. That said, I'm just trying to add to the evidence binder. Any ideas on what to do with the concept, for profit or otherwise?

    edit: it appears we've melted down since I began compiling this. EUR/USD crapped a bit but within reason. Seems to be building a divergence on RSI hourly at the bottom of a channel I have (based off of a fifth-power-133-extension [133of133of133of133of133…yeah]… the extension series that begat the idea of concentric 133'ing, hence, great respect). We'll see if we can't pop off of the 20/50 hourly /ESM0 confluence SMAs… wake up to an opex bull party as has been planned.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Large expanding wedge on the Russell… target 700?

    btw, just get a blog and be done with it – you don't have to go publicising yourself, but it's cool to have one place to store all your charts and musings, even if it's only for your own benefit.

    also, if you think that the 133 method has mileage, then surely the sensible (if selfish) thing to do is keep the audience down?

  • tradejane

    Look, you're smart and you can write well, what are you waiting for?

    Write a book and send it to Wiley publishing!

  • gmak

    It's early but I'm going to wrap myself in a red matador's cape and go dance with the EUR. heh. Wish me luck boyz and gurlz.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14967#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • PRSGuitars

    Interesting — why Wiley? (just curious)

  • chronographics

    Guitar man, seen some of your charts and they look good.
    Why does 133.3 work you ask. Well if you are a Gann fan you would say of course 120 Degrees is 33.3 or 1/3. Extending the channel like this makes sense on first glance. Why 177.69 works? Well very close to 180 Deg. would really need to see how accurate the channel is there. As for what to do with it. I can tell you that the best way to make money from it is to trade it, its that simple (or hard). its the only real credibility. Also even if you start with a small amount if the system is good (and you will need to have one based on your 133.3's) it will not take long to build up substantial wealth. Most good charting /trading packages would be able to do your 133.3's such as TradeStation say or AspenGraphics ( I know I helped write some of the requirements on them) Not sure if you were asking about 133.3's being put as say a standard option in a package – they will want to see proof of demand as they generally have a long list of enhancement asked for. Finally if this really works for you then keep the user group smallish, many things (including EWT) worked better when fewer people knew of it – this from experience.
    Best of luck and if I can be of help let me know.

  • chronographics

    They are the most recognised TA publisher out there. Depends if you want a name or for yourself or money. Can get you an idea or the deals they do as I have a friend who has published a few TA books. Unless you are kaufman or Wilder etc hard to make a lot of money.

  • tradejane

    What chronographics said. Every trading book I see these days appears to be from them.

    True, things aren't easy for new authors that's why I mentioned Futia, he seems to have a clever marketing method.

  • PRSGuitars

    I have no desire for a blog, but really just don't wish to crowd Mole's
    space with my ramblings (nor, as you agree, grow a following – snort – AS IF
    THAT ACTUALLY WOULD HAPPEN! ha… I think thirty people have emailing me in
    my life about it — some following…).

    As for online codification, the next step is a youtube video or maybe a
    brief live presentation sometime (just after the close perhaps on a random
    Tuesday) to show anyone who's curious what I've got up my sleeve. I'm much
    more motivated to teach this trick to a few nice people and be done with it
    — maybe I'll slip it to a few pro trader friends and let them work their
    magic (knowing that realm, the 133 will be mute and moot in a year's time –
    sigh… my baby!).

  • drtkw

    The reasons this works is quite simple. If a channel is respecting fibonacci levels vertically, then the channel will respect fibonacci levels along any other direction. Your extensions in channel width shouldn't be 33% but in fact should be a fibonacci extension i.e 38.2%. Your “method” offers no advantage over simply trading S/R lines based on vertical fibonacci levels. Sorry, there's no book here.

  • drtkw

    The reasons this works is quite simple. If a channel is respecting fibonacci levels vertically, then the channel will respect fibonacci levels along any other direction. Your extensions in channel width shouldn't be 33% but in fact should be a fibonacci extension i.e 38.2%. Your “method” offers no advantage over simply trading S/R lines based on vertical fibonacci levels. Sorry, there's no book here.

  • PRSGuitars

    You made an account just to post this?

    You have two comments and both are the same thing, on this post.

    You're also the first person to argue this method isn't useful, so I appreciate the reply. I like the flip side of the coin, too.

    While I respect that it 'should' be 38.2% extensions (or -23.6%, I've seen that in a lot of 'ambush' fake-breaks), it 'WAS' 33.3% in (estimation) 40-50% of the cases I've seen. That's tradeable for me, or at least noteworthy.

    If the 133 offers no advantage, you don't have to trade it. In fact, trade against it. Let me know how that works (if you keep posting under this account, you know, after today).

  • PRSGuitars

    Good points re: gann — I'm not nearly literate enough to reply thoughtfully, but my cursory understanding does allow me to grasp what you're getting at, so I will check it out (and thanks for that!).

    I use 133.333*133.333 to get 177.69 (the concentric 133'ing, aka, 133'ing expanded sections, thus, 133.333 to the ____ power).

    As far as the 'default' channel extensions, that's available on TOS (with a little basic tweaking). And since it's such a simple method, it wouldn't take much to educate the masses on how to employ such a tool.

    The problem I see is that 90% of people utilize a shittier platform than TOS, thus, it's offlimits to them. Furthermore, even experienced traders (I'm thinking of an unnamed recent blogosphere startup) don't know the customization and power of their platform (TOS, usually, sadly) and don't get deep enough into it to make it worthwhile.

    I imagine this being more of a concept I retain and develop for another few months, as it's tough to make a case of a 'system' but rather it should be utilized as a 'method' (a tool in the toolbelt).

  • PRSGuitars

    Good points re: gann — I'm not nearly literate enough to reply thoughtfully, but my cursory understanding does allow me to grasp what you're getting at, so I will check it out (and thanks for that!).

    I use 133.333*133.333 to get 177.69 (the concentric 133'ing, aka, 133'ing expanded sections, thus, 133.333 to the ____ power).

    As far as the 'default' channel extensions, that's available on TOS (with a little basic tweaking). And since it's such a simple method, it wouldn't take much to educate the masses on how to employ such a tool.

    The problem I see is that 90% of people utilize a shittier platform than TOS, thus, it's offlimits to them. Furthermore, even experienced traders (I'm thinking of an unnamed recent blogosphere startup) don't know the customization and power of their platform (TOS, usually, sadly) and don't get deep enough into it to make it worthwhile.

    I imagine this being more of a concept I retain and develop for another few months, as it's tough to make a case of a 'system' but rather it should be utilized as a 'method' (a tool in the toolbelt).

  • Bankster

    Haven't heard from you in a while, PRS. What's been going on?