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Another Day In The Madhouse
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Another Day In The Madhouse

by The MoleNovember 12, 2009

It seems that the greed of market participants, at least in equities, has reached exponential levels where even the Dollar carry trade correlation is blatantly being ignored. Take a peek at my Euro/S&P futures chart:

Make sure you are wearing your 3D glasses so that you can see all the detail on this chart. What’s apparent is a rather weak Euro against a rather impatient S&P. However, the madness is not just limited to the S&P – the Russell pushed up strongly today – apparently the boys are trying to hold the position in the high beta indexes and are now rotating into small caps to keep this turd afloat.

I’d call that a nice clean gap fill on the Dollar – we did see a slight drop in equities this morning but they snapped right back. So now we’ve got the Dollar up along with equities – geeeh, I wonder how long that’ll last. It’s obvious that Dollar bears expect new lows shortly – and heck – maybe they are right, but after 9 continuous days up in the ES, I am a bit surprised to see so much confidence by equity traders. Maybe they know something I don’t – and admittedly we’ve been around 3% Dollar bulls for almost two months now – who knows how low they can push this thing and for how long.

I just wound up 2sweeties’ DXY odds calculator and apparently we have currently pushed slightly past the 75.46 retracement level. The odds on that one are only about 49% – but that’s relative to my 100% mark which I placed very conservatively at 76.88 (i.e. near the recent highs).

In terms of frequency we are above the 15 percentile until well past 76. So, I’d wager that it’s possible we see a run to 75.73 before we see a push back. Again the DXY odds calculator has been exclusively provided courtesy of retracementlevels – head over there and take a look at some of 2sweeties other offerings. I personally am quite partial to his hourly ES and daily SPX odds calculators.

Well, since I started to write this post the market has given up a lot of upside, so I guess I wasn’t halucinating after all 😉 Alright, I shall be back shortly with an updated wave count.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ultra

    Triangle and truncated fifth. It's over.

  • john_matrix

    EUR breaking down

  • Huggybear

    Thanks Mole,

    I noticed that disconnect this morning as well. I grew concerned before the open that we might have one more push up when I saw that the MM's had taken the sell stops out on ES below 1090 then pumped it back higher. Big spike on VIX did correlate with the Euro sell off. Need to break 1090 decisively now IMO.

  • ultra

    The gift that keeps on giving – broke through long-term support (not for the first time, mind) – I'm going to give up calling bounces on this one.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Great post Mole.

  • WTFed

    Thanks Mole

  • john_matrix

    We could have correlation break between es and EUR, so es rises and EUR falls

  • Duuuuuude

    I have gotta say that I spend a lot more time on the blog since all the hoopla moved on. Like I have said before, the quality of the comments here has greatly improved. I can actually spend a bit more time reading them.

  • gregn

    Thanks Mole.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    THe divergence was worrying me as well. Now with equities starting to roll over it just makes me more eager.

    I cannot go crazy short (yet). But I am pretty extreme at moment compared to the trend. Stop-loss Benchmarks, which felt good prior to this morning , now really seem right; since if we take out highs now it will not be for me to keep short.

    I will post to ES at some point today, but here is my current position if anyone cares (since I'm not going to post that part to ES). The benchmark for this is NDX AND SPX closing above October intraday highs…
    http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my guess is the higher they went the scarier it became, they wouldn't let a correction happen, period.

    now there was no distribution and this will fall

    my heart bleeds

  • centerline

    6 pts. An official crash! LOL

  • gregn

    I was just about to say that as Mr. Vix joked about that yesterday. There was our P3.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW they sure are neglecting s&p today, nasdaq is holding for counts no longer available for S&P

  • gregn

    When you go 'crazy short' will you be buying any ETFs other then TWM?

  • Duuuuuude

    I think the broadening wedge on the $vix is about history. http://screencast.com/t/YzJmM2Y3ZmY

  • weasel_whisperer

    Looks like the Russell goes from being the strongest index early on, to the weakest now.

  • gregn

    I was talking about BigHouse(Mr. Vix). Is your avatar James Coburn?

  • Duuuuuude

    Did the FAZforum close shop already?

  • Duuuuuude

    Right……my garbage man swears I look like him every time he sees me. I will take what I can get!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Individual shorts, futures and ETF's
    …also I switch to raw-meat diet, play Zamphir full vol and start peeing in vitamin water bottles instead of leaving the screen

  • insite

    somehow i believe you

  • Tronacate

    COCOA is very telling as to where we are heading imo…..it had a blow off top and is now rolling over nicely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yesterday I mentioned that that megaphone bottom had ended and this last drop was a ii for an impulse down

  • Tronacate

    CROX looking to fill the gap from yesterday

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Gold isn't having the best day ever either, finally I Am AnOverboughtPOS….errrr….Gold (IAG) is finally acting like a stock with a 132 P/E….

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bravo on the CRAP errr Crox play….Wasn't bright enough to think to short that fine company…

  • Tronacate

    I guess so…..I liked it

  • Tronacate

    Thanx….almost forgot about the POS

  • Tronacate

    DTG is looking to fill the gap from 2 days ago…….behaving more like the pos it is.

  • Tronacate

    Keep an eye on RIMM guys….looks to be breaking down

  • string01

    Sometimes pretty pictures are fun: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXEW&p=60&yr

    (you need a stockcharts.com acct.)

  • Bearinator

    Anyone else see this? http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/fha-r

    FHA is the only thing keeping the housing market from complete collapse, and with capital reserve 0.53%…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Hey AMD is still a POS company? Thinking about shorting it, is this something I need to be talked off the ledge about?

  • Me_XMan

    SPX 1070 on the docket.

  • gregn

    That doesn't make sense, we bailed out the poor folks that signed for mortgages that they could never afford with virtual money. That article must be wrong.

  • amokta

    the synodic moon equinox/new moon seems to have come a few days early?
    in all seriousness, using the cylce patterns, equites will turn down now, but will the break new lows, or will we still be in an uptrend overall?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    What happen to that roof top pattern? :)

  • Tronacate

    I've always thought AMD sucked………but haven't looked at the chart

  • Tronacate

    Looks like a tasty short to me…..lol……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    give me 1086 and the res will follow

  • newbear

    Blown off?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    $RUT has a gap on the 10 minute charts in the last hour, that it may try and fill before it continues lower……..other indices may follow suit by rising though I don't see a gap with the others………….

    Unless this is the 'big ease'……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    at this rate they should be at 0 by february

  • molecool

    LOL – don't get me started.

  • tradejane

    I've seen similar gaps in other stocks and Indexes and yes, I think they'll fill too.

  • CorporalCarrot

    The Euro looks to be basing, as does the Dow. Dip buyers imminent.

    Despite the giddiness being caused by the Dow at the moment, does anyone else think the S&P chart looks virtually identical to where the R2k did back in mid October?

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    Just sharing my charts here…so far I don't see a reason to short… unless you're into support resistance, I however prefer the let the profits run adage 😉

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Svw7kPjoK

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Svw7mZogp

    Cheers

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'd short it until 3.5, but could rise some more before correcting

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course it is wrong, let me ride my unicorn down that rainbow and say a thing or two to those naughty boys

  • gregn

    What platform is that?

  • gregn

    Haha ;]

  • Huggybear

    It grew a chimney

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nobody's getting you started, just go back to the count (when you have finished you can go out and play with the other bears)

    😉

  • gregn

    We might have to draw the smoke wisps at some point.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Looks like MetaTrader 4.

  • Tronacate

    I'd love to see the RUT bust through 550 next week……should lead everything lower

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Mole,
    Chk email, thx

  • gregn

    Thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not so sure

    p.s. mais um tuga?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    You don't ask for much !!…..why not go the whole hog and go for 500………

  • Tronacate

    lol……..I think it could happen

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    pray that they don't want a flag pole on top of the chimney

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i think it can happen

  • weasel_whisperer

    Looks like FxPro (lower left hand corner of the screen shot).

  • centerline

    Did you guys see that Call of Duty sold $310m in 24 hours? wow.

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    eeheh somos piores que ervas daninhas… tamos em todo o lado 😀

  • Tronacate

    RIMM……RIMM…….RIMM……..!!!!!

  • PRSGuitars

    EW basics question: five waves down on this?

    http://screencast.com/t/MGEyZjhmNmI

    The two-day look has me thinking this is alllll just consolidation. Lots of overlap. Which would suck. Thoughts?

    It appears to me that the volume supports more downside, which may cause a bit of a landslide (if we're lucky). Similarly, those nasty long early morning heavy volume candles are rape for anyone buying the AM session — how long will they encourage buyers? I don't think much longer.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    opening gap from yesterday's open filled, volumes for the two red 60 minute Dow bars are fairly strong.

    Interesting this here is it could reverse up now that it's filled the gap or it could fall as volumes suggest this is a strong sell off.

  • Cole

    X….X….X….!!!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    onorio, killafox, autopsias, niktus, you, and yours truly (so far)

    one of these days ES will be part of portugal

  • Me_XMan

    GO DOLLAR GO!

  • Tronacate

    Nice…..looks like it could fill that gap today…..that would be a sweet move

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if C is bigger than 1.6 A expect an impulse

    for it to stop here it sjould have stoped at 1091

  • tradejane

    That Euro/Equity divergence freaked me out there for while too. Thankfully I didn't do anything hasty.

    So that's what fa_q meant by “tomorrow is Thurs before OpEx. and the day after a bank holiday” – next time that happens I'm taking the day off!

  • ultra

    Could be – I'm actually counting a truncated (failed) fifth on SPY as there was a definite triangle, but I am sticking my neck on the block and saying, yes, this is it.

    {v} of i unfolding as I type this.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDliMGE0MT

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    indeed… I have actually been part of ES since March-April although lately, I haven't commented much in people's blogs… I found it to be much time consuming, and was taking my focus away of the markets, and also making me kind of biased when approaching the markets… so I kind of stopped 😉

  • gregn

    CAT short setup that I have been on and on about is playing out: http://screencast.com/t/NWExNzYzOD

  • centerline

    Every time I leave my desk today we visit Mr. Pivot. Maybe I need to stay away longer and we make it to the next pivot lower.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Having a very good day today…. which makes we want to watch Joe Ferguson get leveled by Wilbur Marshall. It is at the 2 second mark and it never gets old. Cheers!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UioJBnyjUwc&feat

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    PRS

    Doesn't look unreasonable IMO but what the question ?……not sure what you mean by why isn't there another wave up…..

  • TheCrowe

    You're talking USX right? Do you see the I H&S on the short term chart or the long term H&S on the daily playing out. I am with long term H&S, neckline at 40, heading to 30…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    take a look at my nasdaq:gold chart, I think this is it

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html

    p.s. which part of portugal in your case?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    go away, go on some long vacations, we'll pay

  • Cole

    Ticker: X. US Steel. I'm looking at the retest of the head and shoulders neckline that berk traded two weeks ago. This looks like an excellent re-entry point to me.

  • gregn

    Absolutely, I was waiting for it too. Berk, AS2009 and I were talking X non stop couple weeks back. I played the double top and the H&S. Great trade vehicle. I was going to nibble on some puts at HOD,but missed fill.

  • centerline

    I will be out of here at 1 PM for the rest of the day. That should do the trick!

    Look at possible downward channel on the daily here. Should be good for a re-test of the 1090 pivot here soon, or the channel is toast.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    biased? but from your site's big picture you're a P3'er like mole (I'm more of a w5er of P3)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just kidding, stay

  • TheCrowe

    I'm in the trade already, but have been cautioned about a shorter time-frame H&S that you may be able to see on the hourly. I can see it, but feel the longer timeframe wins out and you manage the position or skip the trade. I'm in the former camp.

  • Unfadable
  • centerline

    I know it was a joke. I started it anyhow. Seriously – have Doctor appt. today and am leaving soon for the day. Probably won't get back until after market close. Got a feeling we close right at 1090 pivot today. Perfect trap once again for both bears and bulls – just too neat and tidy not to happen it seems.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I'll subscribe to your charts…….that's what I was thinking….this 5 down is a C wave……of a 4th wave……

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I think the 5th wave up with be a huge exhaustion rally…….will crucify any shorts…….

  • Nightwind

    Good charts, thx

  • centerline

    Well, maybe yesterdays floor has become today's ceiling. So far, so good.

  • Me_XMan

    What will happen if Obama says dollar is a good buy?

  • Tronacate

    What happens when they float China and it DROPS in relation to the dollar……..everybody thinks the opposite…….

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here we go; 30-yr auction coming up.

  • Me_XMan

    Chinese gonna float dollar and USA in world of hurts.

  • Tronacate

    DOuble top on IYR……..see if it fills the gap…….fighting its destiny all the way

  • mmTesla

    Wondering if Obama and company will defend the dollar. You would think for the sake of recovery they would, but the banks benefit by falling dollar..

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    yes I'm a P3 believer… but i don't trade around that anymore. A person can never know how extended or whatever a wave will become… therefore I only trade around my systems, trend following (on intraday charts like H4 so I can grab a lot of movement…

    It can either go up or down for all I care . the systems will still grab the movement. I won't buy stocks though at least for sometime… only doing futures and forex now… if indeed P3 plays out, I'll be buying stocks and piles of stocks for the long term 😀

  • Tronacate

    Maybe……china's economy is a house of cards……the yuan could easily DROP in relation to the dollar.

  • Unfadable

    Same, I've always felt P2 would end in fireworks and I just went longer with more X and SPY calls. At this point I'm thinking it's ending somewhere around 1150, but we'll see what the technicals look like as it unfolds.

  • Tronacate

    Would benefit their exports……

  • goldpackers

    Need a break below 1087 to give us a crash to 1070, if not just another ABC down for a fourth

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    House of cards…….that's what I would say about the US economy right now……..

  • Me_XMan

    There's movement to detached the Remnumbi from Dollar. This ain't gonna be good for stocks IMO.

  • Tronacate

    Both

  • Tronacate

    IYR backtest of trendline……

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I guess that's true…..China virtually owns the US and if the US becomes worthless then China follows……

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers………and we still have the biggest economy by far.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    We should just merge…it makes sense on a lot of levels….

  • centerline

    I believe the next major pivot lower is at 1061-1061. That would be nice.

  • Tronacate

    Them and Saudi and Iran and Iraq……..then we would have the world by the balls.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Lousy auction. Weak bid to cover and rates really jumped. OTOH, it was a big supply and there was still more than twice the bid as the supply. Not a disaster, but certainly nothing for bulls to crow about.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Merger's a possibiility if the politics can be aligned….always gets in the way.

    And if one is better than the other…..then which one leads…..no such thing as a true merger, there always one dominant partner.

    Look at every major corporate merger, there is always fall out.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That's why we went into Iraq in the first place; had nothing to do with Saddam or 9/11. It's all about securing our energy supplies as opposed to China's.

  • Tronacate

    True……..BUT better to work together…….we pick the sorriest allies that don't help us at all.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I have this 5th down targetting 1082 (SPX), does that jive with anyone ?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • gregn

    If it weren't for the idiotic following of 'green' policies, we would could drill our own damned oil off of Alaska. The green movement is political, not ecological.

  • kryxtal

    1061-1061?

  • http://www.thevolatilitysoma.blogspot.com GS751

    Anybody have a way to look at another crude contract other than NYMEX WTI on ToS??

  • hank30

    Don't be taken to the slaughter. Take profits. This game is not done, yet.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Triangle and truncated fifth. It's over.

  • john_matrix

    EUR breaking down

  • Huggybear

    Thanks Mole,

    I noticed that disconnect this morning as well. I grew concerned before the open that we might have one more push up when I saw that the MM's had taken the sell stops out on ES below 1090 then pumped it back higher. Big spike on VIX did correlate with the Euro sell off. Need to break 1090 decisively now IMO.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    The gift that keeps on giving – broke through long-term support (not for the first time, mind) – I'm going to give up calling bounces on this one.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Great post Mole.

  • WTFed

    Thanks Mole

  • john_matrix

    We could have correlation break between es and EUR, so es rises and EUR falls for the short term

  • Duuuuuude

    I have gotta say that I spend a lot more time on the blog since all the hoopla moved on. Like I have said before, the quality of the comments here has greatly improved. I can actually spend a bit more time reading them.

  • gregn

    Thanks Mole.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    THe divergence was worrying me as well. Now with equities starting to roll over it just makes me more eager.

    I cannot go crazy short (yet). But I am pretty extreme at moment compared to the trend. Stop-loss Benchmarks, which felt good prior to this morning , now really seem right; I.E. if we take out highs now it will not be for me to keep short.

    I will post to ES at some point today, but here is my current position if anyone cares (since I'm not going to post that part to ES). The benchmark for this short stance is NDX AND SPX closing above October intraday highs…

    http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my guess is the higher they went the scarier it became, they wouldn't let a correction happen, period.

    now there was no distribution and this will fall

    my heart bleeds

  • centerline

    6 pts. An official crash! LOL

  • gregn

    I was just about to say that as Mr. Vix joked about that yesterday. There was our P3.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW they sure are neglecting s&p today, nasdaq is holding for counts no longer available for S&P

  • gregn

    When you go 'crazy short' will you be buying any ETFs other then TWM?

  • Duuuuuude

    I think the broadening wedge on the $vix is about history. http://screencast.com/t/YzJmM2Y3ZmY

  • weasel_whisperer

    Looks like the Russell goes from being the strongest index early on, to the weakest now.

  • gregn

    I was talking about BigHouse(Mr. Vix). Is your avatar James Coburn?

  • Duuuuuude

    Did the FAZforum close shop already?

  • Duuuuuude

    Right……my garbage man swears I look like him every time he sees me. I will take what I can get!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Individual shorts, futures and ETF's
    …also I switch to raw-meat diet, play Zamphir full vol and start peeing in vitamin water bottles instead of leaving the screen

  • insite

    somehow i believe you

  • Tronacate

    COCOA is very telling as to where we are heading imo…..it had a blow off top and is now rolling over nicely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yesterday I mentioned that that megaphone bottom had ended and this last drop was a ii for an impulse down

  • Tronacate

    CROX looking to fill the gap from yesterday

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Gold isn't having the best day ever either, finally I Am AnOverboughtPOS….errrr….Gold (IAG) is finally acting like a stock with a 132 P/E….

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bravo on the CRAP errr Crox play….Wasn't bright enough to think to short that fine company…

  • Tronacate

    I guess so…..I liked it

  • Tronacate

    Thanx….almost forgot about the POS

  • Tronacate

    DTG is looking to fill the gap from 2 days ago…….behaving more like the pos it is.

  • Tronacate

    Keep an eye on RIMM guys….looks to be breaking down

  • string01

    Sometimes pretty pictures are fun: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXEW&p=60&yr

    (you need a stockcharts.com acct.)

  • Bearinator

    Anyone else see this? http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/fha-r

    FHA is the only thing keeping the housing market from complete collapse, and with capital reserve 0.53%…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Hey AMD is still a POS company? Thinking about shorting it, is this something I need to be talked off the ledge about?

  • Me_XMan

    SPX 1070 on the docket.

  • gregn

    That doesn't make sense, we bailed out the poor folks that signed for mortgages that they could never afford with virtual money. That article must be wrong.

  • amokta

    the synodic moon equinox/new moon seems to have come a few days early?
    in all seriousness, using the cylce patterns, equites will turn down now, but will the break new lows, or will we still be in an uptrend overall?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    What happen to that roof top pattern? :)

  • Tronacate

    I've always thought AMD sucked………but haven't looked at the chart

  • Tronacate

    Looks like a tasty short to me…..lol……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    give me 1086 and the res will follow

  • newbear

    Blown off?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    $RUT has a gap on the 10 minute charts in the last hour, that it may try and fill before it continues lower……..other indices may follow suit by rising though I don't see a gap with the others………….

    Unless this is the 'big ease'……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    at this rate they should be at 0 by february

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – don't get me started.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    I've seen similar gaps in other stocks and Indexes and yes, I think they'll fill too.

  • CorporalCarrot

    The Euro looks to be basing, as does the Dow. Dip buyers imminent.

    Despite the giddiness being caused by the Dow at the moment, does anyone else think the S&P chart looks virtually identical to where the R2k did back in mid October?

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    Just sharing my charts here…so far I don't see a reason to short… unless you're into support resistance, I however prefer the let the profits run adage 😉

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Svw7kPjoK

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Svw7mZogp

    Cheers

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'd short it until 3.5, but could rise some more before correcting

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course it is wrong, let me ride my unicorn down that rainbow and say a thing or two to those naughty boys

  • gregn

    What platform is that?

  • gregn

    Haha ;]

  • Huggybear

    It grew a chimney

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nobody's getting you started, just go back to the count (when you have finished you can go out and play with the other bears)

    😉

  • gregn

    We might have to draw the smoke wisps at some point.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Looks like MetaTrader 4.

  • Tronacate

    I'd love to see the RUT bust through 550 next week……should lead everything lower

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Mole,
    Chk email, thx

  • gregn

    Thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not so sure

    p.s. mais um tuga?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    You don't ask for much !!…..why not go the whole hog and go for 500………

  • Tronacate

    lol……..I think it could happen

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    pray that they don't want a flag pole on top of the chimney

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i think it can happen

  • weasel_whisperer

    Looks like FxPro (lower left hand corner of the screen shot).

  • centerline

    Did you guys see that Call of Duty sold $310m in 24 hours? wow.

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    eeheh somos piores que ervas daninhas… tamos em todo o lado 😀

  • Tronacate

    RIMM……RIMM…….RIMM……..!!!!!

  • PRSGuitars

    EW basics question: five waves down on this?

    http://screencast.com/t/MGEyZjhmNmI

    The two-day look has me thinking this is alllll just consolidation. Lots of overlap. Which would suck. Thoughts?

    It appears to me that the volume supports more downside, which may cause a bit of a landslide (if we're lucky). Similarly, those nasty long early morning heavy volume candles are rape for anyone buying the AM session — how long will they encourage buyers? I don't think much longer.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    opening gap from yesterday's open filled, volumes for the two red 60 minute Dow bars are fairly strong.

    Interesting this here is it could reverse up now that it's filled the gap or it could fall as volumes suggest this is a strong sell off.

  • Cole

    X….X….X….!!!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    onorio, killafox, autopsias, niktus, you, and yours truly (so far)

    one of these days ES will be part of portugal

  • Me_XMan

    GO DOLLAR GO!

  • Tronacate

    Nice…..looks like it could fill that gap today…..that would be a sweet move

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if C is bigger than 1.6 A expect an impulse

    for it to stop here it sjould have stoped at 1091

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    That Euro/Equity divergence freaked me out there for while too. Thankfully I didn't do anything hasty.

    So that's what fa_q meant by “tomorrow is Thurs before OpEx. and the day after a bank holiday” – next time that happens I'm taking the day off!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Could be – I'm actually counting a truncated (failed) fifth on SPY as there was a definite triangle, but I am sticking my neck on the block and saying, yes, this is it.

    {v} of i unfolding as I type this.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDliMGE0MT

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    indeed… I have actually been part of ES since March-April although lately, I haven't commented much in people's blogs… I found it to be much time consuming, and was taking my focus away of the markets, and also making me kind of biased when approaching the markets… so I kind of stopped 😉

  • gregn

    CAT short double top setup that I have been on and on about is playing out: http://screencast.com/t/NWExNzYzOD

  • centerline

    Every time I leave my desk today we visit Mr. Pivot. Maybe I need to stay away longer and we make it to the next pivot lower.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Having a very good day today…. which makes we want to watch Joe Ferguson get leveled by Wilbur Marshall. It is at the 2 second mark and it never gets old. Cheers!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UioJBnyjUwc&feat

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    PRS

    Doesn't look unreasonable IMO but what the question ?……not sure what you mean by why isn't there another wave up…..

  • TheCrowe

    You're talking USX right? Do you see the I H&S on the short term chart or the long term H&S on the daily playing out. I am with long term H&S, neckline at 40, heading to 30…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    take a look at my nasdaq:gold chart, I think this is it

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html

    p.s. which part of portugal in your case?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    go away, go on some long vacations, we'll pay

  • Cole

    Ticker: X. US Steel. I'm looking at the retest of the head and shoulders neckline that berk traded two weeks ago. This looks like an excellent re-entry point to me.

  • gregn

    Absolutely, I was waiting for it too. Berk, AS2009 and I were talking X non stop couple weeks back. I played the double top and the H&S. Great trade vehicle. I was going to nibble on some puts at HOD,but missed fill.

  • centerline

    I will be out of here at 1 PM for the rest of the day. That should do the trick!

    Look at possible downward channel on the daily here. Should be good for a re-test of the 1090 pivot here soon, or the channel is toast.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    biased? but from your site's big picture you're a P3'er like mole (I'm more of a w5er of P3)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just kidding, stay

  • TheCrowe

    I'm in the trade already, but have been cautioned about a shorter time-frame H&S that you may be able to see on the hourly. I can see it, but feel the longer timeframe wins out and you manage the position or skip the trade. I'm in the former camp.

  • Unfadable
  • centerline

    I know it was a joke. I started it anyhow. Seriously – have Doctor appt. today and am leaving soon for the day. Probably won't get back until after market close. Got a feeling we close right at 1090 pivot today. Perfect trap once again for both bears and bulls – just too neat and tidy not to happen it seems.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I'll subscribe to your charts…….that's what I was thinking….this 5 down is a C wave……of a 4th wave……

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I think the 5th wave up with be a huge exhaustion rally…….will crucify any shorts…….

  • Nightwind

    Good charts, thx

  • centerline

    Well, maybe yesterdays floor has become today's ceiling. So far, so good.

  • Me_XMan

    What will happen if Obama says dollar is a good buy?

  • Tronacate

    What happens when they float China and it DROPS in relation to the dollar……..everybody thinks the opposite…….

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here we go; 30-yr auction coming up.

  • Me_XMan

    Chinese gonna float dollar and USA in world of hurts.

  • Tronacate

    DOuble top on IYR……..see if it fills the gap…….fighting its destiny all the way

  • mmTesla

    Wondering if Obama and company will defend the dollar. You would think for the sake of recovery they would, but the banks benefit by falling dollar..

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    yes I'm a P3 believer… but i don't trade around that anymore. A person can never know how extended or whatever a wave will become… therefore I only trade around my systems, trend following (on intraday charts like H4 so I can grab a lot of movement…

    It can either go up or down for all I care . the systems will still grab the movement. I won't buy stocks though at least for sometime… only doing futures and forex now… if indeed P3 plays out, I'll be buying stocks and piles of stocks for the long term 😀

  • Tronacate

    Maybe……china's economy is a house of cards……the yuan could easily DROP in relation to the dollar.

  • Unfadable

    Same, I've always felt P2 would end in fireworks and I just went longer with more X and SPY calls. At this point I'm thinking it's ending somewhere around 1150, but we'll see what the technicals look like as it unfolds.

  • Tronacate

    Would benefit their exports……

  • goldpackers

    Need a break below 1087 to give us a crash to 1070, if not just another ABC down for a fourth

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    House of cards…….that's what I would say about the US economy right now……..

  • Me_XMan

    There's movement to detached the Remnumbi from Dollar. This ain't gonna be good for stocks IMO.

  • Tronacate

    Both

  • Tronacate

    IYR backtest of trendline……

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I guess that's true…..China virtually owns the US and if the US becomes worthless then China follows……

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers………and we still have the biggest economy by far.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    We should just merge…it makes sense on a lot of levels….

  • centerline

    I believe the next major pivot lower is at 1061-1061. That would be nice.

  • Tronacate

    Them and Saudi and Iran and Iraq……..then we would have the world by the balls.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Lousy auction. Weak bid to cover and rates really jumped. OTOH, it was a big supply and there was still more than twice the bid as the supply. Not a disaster, but certainly nothing for bulls to crow about.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Merger's a possibiility if the politics can be aligned….always gets in the way.

    And if one is better than the other…..then which one leads…..no such thing as a true merger, there always one dominant partner.

    Look at every major corporate merger, there is always fall out.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That's why we went into Iraq in the first place; had nothing to do with Saddam or 9/11. It's all about securing our energy supplies as opposed to China's.

  • Tronacate

    True……..BUT better to work together…….we pick the sorriest allies that don't help us at all.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I have this 5th down targetting 1082 (SPX), does that jive with anyone ? Correction…….1087……..

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • gregn

    If it weren't for the idiotic following of 'green' policies, we would could drill our own damned oil off of Alaska. The green movement is political, not ecological.

  • kryxtal

    1061-1061?

  • http://www.thevolatilitysoma.blogspot.com GS751

    Anybody have a way to look at another crude contract other than NYMEX WTI on ToS??

  • hank30

    Don't be taken to the slaughter. Take profits. This game is not done, yet.