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Any Given Sunday
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Any Given Sunday

by The MoleJuly 19, 2009

Any given Sunday I pull a chair and sit down at my desk, deep somewhere in the murky depths of the evil lair, and think about what I’m going to tell my rats about the coming week. Often my mind is filled with a furball of information I want to convey, so I just start hacking and it somehow all falls into place – a chart here and a chart there. By the time I’m done I’ve spent five hours or more and ever so often there is a message there, something to hang on to, a game plan for the coming week. It’s not a crystal ball by any measure, but if nothing else I hope that I have been able offer key technical analysis preventing a sudden game change from completely wiping you out. My claim to fame for last Sunday’s post should probably be this chart:

Bear trap indeed…. Of course I didn’t expect to find the Spiders at 94 the following Friday either – but at least I hope that I kept you guys from getting snapped in half.

But today’s post will be different. I won’t post a lot of charts – most of them are conflicting at best and useless at worst right now. Technical analysis has its limits and although I am going to offer three high probability scenarios they should not be considered the core message of this post.

What is a lot more important tonight – what I want to ingrain into your puny rodent brains – is the bigger picture. I have seen a lot of fellow bears falter in the past few days. Blog traffic is slowing down, most of you are angry and frustrated. One renowned high profile bear, who I shan’t name as I deeply respect him, has even gone so far to consider the possibility of a new bull market and that 666 might have been the end of this recession. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth – but even the staunchest bear might in a moment of crisis be seduced by the dark side. On Saturday my bullshit sensors I installed last fall in the evil lair issued a code red  – I stepped in immediately and performed an emergency exorcism on that said individual, and I am happy to announce that the demon was successfully expelled and trapped in a device I managed from the Ghostbusters set back in the late 80s:

BTW, does someone have a 2GW fusion energizer pack? The batteries on this one are running out… oh boy…

Anyway, here’s today’s exercise: Just for a moment I want you to forget about your charts – forget about last week’s bear squeeze rally – the money you might have lost – the anger you felt when the Feds threw us one curve ball after the other or changed the rules in mid game. Forget about all those consolidations that bounced back way ahead of their expected potential – forget about the IOU you just received instead of your eagerly awaited tax return – the lay-off notice you were handed from your employer. Forget about all that for a moment.

Just fade out the noise.

We are getting closer – I can smell it – just watch bubble vision these days. Resident CNBC court jester Dennis Kneale recently announced on his freak show that the ‘recession ended in June’. Meanwhile Goldman is shoveling out huge (tax payer sponsored) bonuses for the past quarter. It really didn’t take much – did it? After extreme pessimism in early March good ole’ greed and irrational bullish exuberance have returned in four months flat. Which is exactly what I predicted late February, remember?

The 2007 bubble mentality is back with a vengeance! We’re back to business and the status quo has been preserved. Yeeeeeehaaaaaa!!!!

Unfortunately it’s all an illusion – it doesn’t exist. What you see on your SPX chart is not a reflection of the state of the economy or even the stock market – it’s pure investor sentiment – or as Robert Prechter calls it: socionomics. This rally has been fueled by hope, wishful thinking, blatant and unlawful market manipulation, tax payer backed private bailouts, high frequency trading bots, and perhaps even the tooth fairy. I’m not going to waste time and energy rehashing the myriads of reasons of why this rally has been running on vapor.

I think I’ve made myself abundantly clear in the past few months and nothing, absolutely nothing, has changed since then. We are in a depression and the SPX will breach its 666 low within the next 12 months – maybe even before this year comes to a close.

Which is why I have told you guys over and over again to keep your powder dry. That’s also why I have played it very small and never had more than 20% of my assets in the market since late February. Of course it’s easy to get sucked into trades here and there – we can’t help it – that’s what we do. But even if you took a hit in the first half of this year – forget about it. Focus on what’s ahead.

The golden rainbow lays beyond all the hype and the noise you hear from those bullish pundits. Let them celebrate and let them pop the champagne as we breach their silly moving averages and watch them push the tape one last spike to the upside. None of that matters. What matters is that you are ready to short the shit out of this market at the end of this summer – and then grab a cigar and watch the freak show unfold – I’ve got front row seats reserved for all of you.

In the meantime it’s important that we act as a team and support each other. I want all of you to be focused like samurai swinging his katana:

Let’s not bitch, let’s not moan about whatever gyrations we might see in the weeks ahead – let’s devote ourselves to a single purpose, which is to collect as much evidence as possible so that we’ll be able to get our asses into short positions close to the top. If we miss it by a week or two – it won’t matter. What will matter however will be six months that will follow this sucker rally – if you play this one right you might still have a fat gut or a bitching wife, but cash in your trading account will not be one of your problems.

I feel like a coach right now – we are so close and I see you guys suffer so much. Some of you are distraught and ready to throw in the towel. But we are so close, rats – I can smell it! So, what I really think you guys need today is a good pep talk. If I was so lucky to be Al Pacino just for one day (I’d give one of my limbs for his voice for sure) – this is what I would say:

Either we win as a team – or we die as individuals. Hell yeah – every time I listen to this clip I want to go out there and tackle somebody! :-)

BTW – we are only three weeks away from preseason – ’bout fucking time! Would you believe it – I actually helped build this site – the video section was part of what I helped put together during the NFL.com site redesign. But that’s a story for a different day…

Alright, let’s pull together and focus on the mission, rats – fade the noise – keep your powder dry – focus on picking the top. We have time – there is no rush. But – make no mistake – if we miss this one we will have a tough time trading in a year from now because deep inside of us we will know that we missed the shorting opportunity of a lifetime. So, let’s not fuck this up, ladies and leeches, shall we?

In the meantime we of course trade the long side when we see an opportunity – but this is not where you should expect to make the big money this year. We have come a long way and maybe we’ve got another 30% to go – but that’ll be monopoly money compared with what we’ll rake in later this year. Just watch me…

As a side note: Can you imagine the panic that will set in later this year when the public is starting to realize that they all have been had? How will the public respond when GS and other large banks suddenly start logging record losses again? It’s gonna get coyote ugly and I’m going to enjoy every fucking minute of it. Yes, maybe I am truly evil – but some people only learn the hard way (plus it’s so damn entertaining seeing idiots suffer).

Monday should be pretty straight forward – either we drop into a fourth wave right away (Soylent Orange) or we push a bit higher to scare out the last remaining hobby bears (Soylent Green). If we get the latter I think 952-955 should be where we hit the proverbial wall. In both cases we should not drop much further than 920 or 912 – a lot of resistance there and the bulls will have little tolerance for having their coveted 900 mark being challenged yet again.

And yes, I agree with Fujisan that the Head & Shoulder is not dead and buried yet – on the chart that would be Soylent Blue. For this one to play out we would need to start dropping hard and fast, starting Monday and without major interruptions pretty much all next week. The open interest in the August SPY option chain she posted is quite interesting and it would do wonders to all the puts I held going into the weekend.

This is the only ‘momentum chart’ I will post today and it’s actually my favorite. In all my time trading and analyzing the markets I have never ever seen anything like the current readings on the NYSE New Highs/Lows Index. But after several weeks of looking at all three MAs paint a flatline I now believe that I know what it means. In a nutshell – the day we start seeing these MAs detach and move to the downside – no matter what direction equities are taken at that time – will be when we should start thinking about long term short positions. The 10-day will be first – then followed by the 20-day – once the 50-day starts sinking we should be close to the peak or slightly beyond it.

Thanks to some very supportive rat minions I am now able to provide up to date charts on my extra evil BAA-TYX spread chart, which pleases me in a big way and going forward should give us up to date clues on where the tape is heading. Thus far it’s clear that the spread continued to narrow, and a narrowing credit spread between what’s considered one step above junk bonds and the (supposedly) safest treasuries available points towards either Soylent Blue or Green.

The magic number I see looking at this Dollar chart is 76 – seems that we’re dropping into a 5th wave here – as I suggested last week. It’s been taking a lot longer than we hoped for this one to play out but I think the ‘powers that be’ wanted to keep this one in the box as part of the suprise party we walked into last week.

I’m unclear about the count in the 10-year treasury but it seems to me that we should see a bounce around the 115-20 mark. At least that’s where I’ll probably grab a few calls just for shits and giggles.

Silver is on a bear squeezing mission right now and we’ll leave it alone until about 14.25 – that’s where I’ll short the proverbial shit out of it.

A great way to perhaps gauge a peak in the current Silver and Gold rallies will be a u-turn in the Gold:Silver ratio. Keep an eye on this thing and if it starts pushing to the upside you know what to do.

That’s all I got for tonight – sorry for the late post but it took me several hours to put it together.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Cerebro82

    Sir, in my opinion this is your best post ever. You gauged the sentiment in the lair. A lot of people got the shit kicked out of them last week (me included), so we needed a little reminder of the overall goal. Thanks for the hard work. Evil Speculator is more than a business to you, it is quite evident that you care about people and helping. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I have a theory about the sudden surge in forced buy-backs of shorted stocks, as referenced on ZHedge last week (ex. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/interacti…)

    -Since large funds like STT lend shares to brokerages so the broker's clients can short the stock, STT needs shares before they themselves can sell (since they've lent them out).
    -The brokers who have borrowed shares are calling forcing short buy backs so they can deliver the shares to STT & others, making for angry shorts who are forced to capitulate prematurely.
    -Short buy backs & CNBC pumping pushes us up to 1k on SPX by the end of August
    -The whole time, the banks who recalled shares sell into the rally and we drop off the cliff in September

    how ya like them apples?

  • molecool

    Thanks Brain – coming from a fellow evil megalomaniac that means a lot to me 😉

  • molecool

    Not the worst conspiracy theory I've heard – I wouldn't put it past them. Only question is: are those pikers smart enough to play that game?

  • bergs

    Just have to say you knocked the ball out of the park. Thank you.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Shorting REP, nat gas stock
    http://zstock7.com/?p=1396
    Shorting KSU, railroads
    http://www.tradinggoddess.com/search/label/zstock7

    ABV
    AGCO
    TSCO
    are all good shorts, NOW, (I hate waiting– the bullet train driver)

  • ZeroPointMind

    They have been herding people for a very long time and are damn good at it.

  • JWBlack

    All leading indicators (the stock market is one of them) are pointing to a rebound in the economy. The recession of the past several months is most likely over or almost over. Whether the last recession is or will be soon over is no longer a question.

    The real question is whether the economy will dip into another recession. If so, then the stock market and other leading indicators will start pointing down before the actual economy does.

    I've been saying (and so has Mole), that you shouldn't expect to see an intermediate top until late August or early September. The severity of the ensuing decline will or will not breach 666 on the downside. We'll know then if the depression many are talking about is coming.

  • faafa

    Fujisan,
    I continue to gain more respect for your trading ability every day.

    Mole,
    I'm sure we all needed the pep talk! Great timing and great way to start the week anew.

    The effort and dedication you both give to the readers of this site is amazingly generous. I for one cannot thank you enough.

  • molecool

    Anyone shorting the futures here? I'm tempted (NQ @ 1531 and ES # 937.5)

  • PRSGuitars

    The best counter to v8's theory would only be that there's a smarter way to pull it off (but I think he's onto something!). The pikers have sadly pulled this whole shitshow off quite well. *yawn*

  • marcT

    Hi Mole!
    Great post over there! I've been a long time follower but have never posted a comment. I just decided to post and commend your efforts! Keep up the great work!

    I'm majorly short into the weekend like your are. I'm just waiting for a good point to unload these positions and go slightly long.

  • Douala

    Great Post Mole! They just keep getting better and better each Sunday. I'll have to “STL” twice tonight to show my appreciation! 😉

  • molecool

    My majorly short I mean 20% of my assets – enough to sting a bit more if I push higher but not enough to wipe me out. I thought I should make that clear – especially since I brought this topic up in my post.

  • molecool

    “All leading indicators (the stock market is one of them) are pointing to a rebound in the economy.”

    Oh rrrreeaaalllly?? Please start listing them :-)

    BTW, the stock market is not an economic indicator – it's a reflection of public sentiment about the economy. Key difference…

  • molecool

    Interesting action in the FX tonight. Dollar is running against the Yen but the Euro is also running against the Dollar.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • JWBlack

    I know you don't like to be contradicted, but the stock market is in fact a leading indicator. The typical lead is about 4 months before the economy tops or bottoms. Look it up.

    As for the list of indicators showing that the economy is rebounding, please subscribe to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, Ned Davis Research or other reputable (meaning objective in their views about the market and the economy) sources. Warning — some of these subscriptions are 5 figures per year.

    On a closing note, I am not disagreeing with you that 666 could be taken out. I just want to wait for the leading indicators to top out and then see how quickly they fall before making a considered opinion about the likelihood of another severe recession or depression.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mole: “some people only learn the hard way”

    well, some people NEVER learn :)

    /ZN concur on poss tgt by Wed
    http://screencast.com/t/XXa80mHOPr

  • kc135guy

    Mole,

    Catch your missives everyday – thanks for the work. ES options trader here. Sold more call spreads on ES Friday… and for good measure, bought some puts… So yeah, definitely short – just not futures. Just hope the buggers don't trade through my strikes again…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • fa_q

    Helluva post, Mole. I'm on board with your green track. I'm still waiting….

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    Hey Mole

    Awesome post as usual but even more so….I remember people in 2001 finally giving up and buying even though it made zero sense and getting their brain's blown out. I kinda feel the same thing is in the air. Retail clients are not yet in but they are salivating to go in again and for those that got hurt and have had this miracle rally to lighten up on they still don't think the time is right to exit unscathed. I was thinking 2 scenario's make sense now and I don't really know which one it will be yet. First one would be for the market to just rock everyone's socks off here and now and those bears that expect 1050 to be tagged in order to short will feel like they missed the move and they just never time it right to get in. The second scenario which I would fear more would be for the rally to continue for another 7 months or so taking us in to the new year. This scenario would cause all of the bears that are lining up puts for DEC to completely miss the boat and it would allow those bulls to say hey things arent so bad so lets get back in. The new year would be the start of the stock collapse and in that case both parties lose their timing and their edge.

    Just a thought that I had this weekend when I was thinking what would cause the maximum pain for both bulls and bears.

    Cheers my fellow traders….and watch those 30yr and 10yr bonds for clues….

  • kc135guy

    The recession ended in 2001 and the “rebound” occurred, followed by a sell-off to reach a low a year and a half later. This too, will be the same. The market will return to a “valuation” at some point… Profits have to double from here to become normal – just isn't gonna happen… Not with deleveraging consumer and manufacturing using labor arbitrage. This countertrend rally will at least retest 666 within the next month or two – typical “bottoms” take around 8 months to play out – but, I am guessing we are headed for 500 (could be by way of 1150 for 50% retracement). On a trailing pe basis, the market will not support the high price.

  • JWBlack

    I don't know why my response to Mole is being treated as the confused ramblings of a permabull. Just read with an open mind.

  • JWBlack

    Oh, what the heck. I'll save you some money on those subscriptions and list a few indicators you can look up.

    I already mentioned the stock market as one. A few others include —

    Moody's Baa minus long-term treasury yield spread.
    Employment indicators such as the 1-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
    New home sales.
    Consumer sentiment.
    PMI.
    OECD composite leading indicator.

    Not trying to pick a fight. Just pointing out facts.

  • The Unknown Trader

    Not an expert, but here's an observation. If you had trusted the stock market as a leading indicator on January 5th of this year and expected it to be predicting the state of the economy four months later, what would the result have been? Isn't it more correct to think of the market as a leading indicator of where people “think” the economy will be four to six months later?

  • Cerebro82

    Yeah Im kind of tempted as well. The only problem that I have is the fact that the S & P seems to be tracing out a triangle. So I want to wait and see if they have one thrust left..

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

    Thoughts?

  • kc135guy

    With you on the “open mind” – I read Acuthan (ECRI dude) as well. Sorry – your post isn't the “confused ramblings” – although that pretty much cracked me up. I just don't believe fundamentally with them – that is it… Cheers!

  • ropey

    Looks like they want another big green day tomorrow, something is pumping the futures yet again…

  • Fujisan

    Mole, I just sent you an email.

  • ravk

    is it reasonable to take it for granted that we are going to revisit the march low levels ? am just wondering if one should take for granted the severity of P3 correction.. after all EWT can give us guidelines..and not prophecies which have to be fulfilled….shouldnt we also be open to the scenario where we still have a major correction from todays levels without taking out those march lows (of SPX 666) ?

  • JWBlack

    Great question.

    Note that I didn't say that the market was the SOLE leading indicator. It is AN indicator. I was just trying to point out that Mole was not totally accurate in saying that the SPX is not a “reflection on the state of the economy.”

    The weight of ALL leading indicators is saying right now that the stock market is in line with all the others, which are saying that the recession is either over or almost over. The stock market does in fact make major intermediate tops or bottoms about 4 months before the economy does. But let me repeat that this doesn't mean that another recession isn't around the corner.

  • ThetaGuy

    If that post only took you “several hours” then you are even better than I thought.

    I expect Monday 1st half will show what's behind the curtain, and I firmly believe that the very best trades… the ones that can change your life, never feel just right.

    Mole that was a s-w-e-e-t post.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just filled /es short 939
    http://screencast.com/t/bIykPvDNq3Q

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    always take the 'hard trade' :)

  • PRSGuitars

    Do you trade /es options primarily b/c of the tax benefits or …? I'm currently an /es trader with some index options trading, too, but curious as to why you chose /es options.

    Thinking of a similar switch (also have begun thinking of selling premium, too, because not all of us are as good at catching impulsive waves at their outset like Mole…snort).

  • Teich50

    In with you at 938; wide stop 944. Watching to see if EUR/USD will break out or not.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    as long as I am awake – all my stops are just mental stop – if they hit – I look for better exit price.
    I recall one great trader when asked “how did you precisely pinpointed the time to short grains and collect 900% profit in 2 months?”
    He answered – “I tried it 12 times” :)

  • Fujisan

    I see a divergence in EUR/USD. I'm watching EUR/USD for a good short entry for a daily scalp.

  • Fujisan

    Thanks for your great post, Mole. As the futures and the currencies are edging up, it could be a gap up open and then drop scenario??

  • FormulaTrader

    I hate to be the naysayer but to me the game is rigged. With program trading really controlling the market it doesn't matter what the truth is.

    Speculating on the bear is a waste of money, time and energy. GS and the other major banks manipulate the market. To me taking a bear position or trying to pick the top before seeing the bear trend form is pointless. I think the most all of us should expect is a flat market for months/years to come.

    Sorry for the unpopular opinion.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    midnight quiz for TOS folks:
    What amiss on this pic?
    http://screencast.com/t/IfRbiERCaFX

  • salvadorveiga

    dont know if you guys have already seen this… but funny 😀 as far i know it could very well be true

    “GOLDMAN SACHS INTERNAL MEMO

    After all that federal aid, a resurgent Goldman Sachs is on course to dole out bonuses that could rival the record paydays of the heady bull-market years. Goldman… announced that it had earmarked $11.4 billion so far this year to compensate its workers. At that rate, Goldman employees could, on average, earn roughly $770,000 each this year.

    —The Times.

    Internal Memorandum No. 8121b

    ATTN: Employees of Goldman Sachs

    We did it. Bottom of the ninth, down by three, bases loaded, and we cranked another grand slam to the moon. They may have shot Lennon, but nothing can kill the Beatles.

    I admit things looked bleak for a minute there. We had to convert to a bank holding company and were forced to accept a taxpayer bailout. It felt un-American. Terribly unbanksmanly. But we accepted the money, knowing that we could magically weave it into a much larger mountain of money.

    We had a few hard months there, didn’t we? They regulated our corporate jet so that we could no longer use it to fly from hole to hole on the green. Dave had to drain his money pool to half capacity. I stopped injecting gold into my blood. They don’t call it a recession for nothing. One day, we’ll look back on the year we received only five-figure bonuses and laugh.

    Wanting to celebrate our renewed success is natural, but it’s important that we don’t go crazy here. Remember, ten per cent of the non-bank country is unemployed, and even those who are working have “real” jobs, where payment is proportional to the creation of a “product” or a “service.” Those poor bastards. So I ask that, in celebrating our raping of the stock market, we show restraint in the following ways:

    – Please limit high-fives and chest bumps to a dozen a day.
    – Don’t wear your crowns, except around the office.
    – Stop paying for things in Monopoly money—I understand it is the same as real money to us, but there have been some complaints.

    For now, let’s take down the giant scoreboard that reads “Main Street: zero. Wall Street: a billion gazillion bajillion.”
    Furthermore, to avoid drawing criticism from the press, this year the bonuses, expected to be comically large, will be distributed in blood diamonds, which can be easily concealed in a briefcase so it looks like we’re working.

    I’d like to thank everyone who made this possible—for a second time. Respect to President Obama for keeping us in the green. Thanks to the big guy upstairs (me). And let’s not forget all the ordinary Americans, who, for some unfathomable reason, have refused to put us behind bars. We are literally taking money out of their wallets. Seriously, with these returns we are making Madoff look like a little kid with his hand caught in the cookie jar. Amateur!

    Yours in money,

    Lloyd Blankfein, C.E.O., Goldman Sachs”

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    game ALWAYS was rigged – that is the nature of the beast
    and still a lot of money have been made (and lost) on both sides
    You probably only trading few years :)

  • Teich50

    Right…Do you consider your mental stop hit and try to exit?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    currently short eur/usd from 1.4171 or so. The rally looks a bit overextended at this point. Stop at 1.4183

  • FormulaTrader

    I think it is definitely more rigged than in the past! The stakes are much higher now.

    I don't subscribe to the we will see the market plummet theory. Sure it will go up and down a bit but no way is Obama going to allow all those 401K's hit rock bottom again. He's got GS and a printing press to make sure of that.

  • Squidman

    Almost seems too easy, but, good R/R.

  • Fujisan

    You picked up a great entry – almost close to today's high.

    I'm talking about MACD on an hourly chart.

  • molecool

    Most likely yes – futures just launched the rocket boosters and it's starting to look ugly again. Although I'm short the market (still – the horror) I'm intellectually curious how far they can push this thing.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    None can manipulate market indefinitely

  • stxinon

    It is difficult to be a bear….
    when my account is eroding every time I short something….

    I think I shall go in hibernation…..

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    oh sick, dont have macd up on my setup but the hourly rsi turned down so its turning out to be a good entry so far. even rode the wave up from 1.4120 avg to 1.4156. too easy almost, im really enjoying the forex thing so far.

  • molecool

    They tried the same in the 1930s – it failed – it will fail again.

  • molecool

    I hear you mate – right now – if in doubt – be in cash.

  • Fujisan

    I was able to ride on its way up too. I have been trading gbp/jpy but eur/usd seems to be much easier to pick the entry.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and the longer they try the harder it'll fall

  • nummy

    this is one long ass wave 3. I sure hope we don't see the 423.6% wave1 fib for wave3 which is around spx 951

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yeah, lately eur/usd has had a really really nice pause at the top/bottom of each move before launching in the opposite direction. Hoping this keeps up because its an easy 75 pips a day, if not more

  • Squidman

    You are referring to the channel to which it has shown such high fidelity of late?

  • rhae

    What are junk bonds? We here it often… Also called corporate bonds… Where second teir companies go to get money to pay for overhead, payroll etc. Companies like CHTR… oops forgot, they went bankrupt in March. In the right market condition they are not so bad cuz they pay a good rate… like the beginning of a bubble. When the pin pricks the bubble, dead companies pile up quicker than Zomlies in Shawn of thr Dead…. all imo of course

  • PRSGuitars

    Your visual PnL, i assume … if you have a position on.

    If you're referring to the 'bad quotes' (i called them stuck orders once and TOS support flipped out, thinking there were un-submitted orders of mine stuck in the system…) — that really blows. I'm frustrated when I can't see proper depth of market to trade /es around 930-935, however, on papermoney activetrader is working fine. Weird. I have that open on my backup laptop next to me so if things dip down there I can still see the right D.o.M. sizing…

  • TonyMontana

    Another GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRREAT POST!

    Thanks Mole! :)

  • Fujisan

    I cannot agree with you more. I just wished that I knew this much sooner.

    Once it gets out of this triangles, it will be a big break to the upside so I cannot wait for that!

  • old_lefty

    Mole,

    Congrats on not having more than 20% in the market. It sure limits risk and makes sure you can play another day.

  • stxinon

    I do accept…

    Moody's Baa minus long-term treasury yield spread….. is going down…..
    but is it not because many Baa have gone bankrupt….

    It is like if you kill many sick patients in the town….
    Percentage of healthy people shall go up….

    Real question is ….
    What is the volume of money in Baa loans….
    and for what % of collateral ….

    It is down in
    USA – 68%
    Japan – 54%
    EU-Scandinavia – 74%
    Middle East – 85%
    India – 43 %
    China is only place where this number is positive…

    that is because their central bank has given 36 times more than GDP loan to internal loans… which is most stupid thing economist have ever heard….

    It means Chinese economy is printing more money that itself 35 times…. for a year….

    That is at interest rate of 3% china can work for rest of eternity and still remain zero value country… or they should have inflation 6% + their growth rate…

  • FormulaTrader

    I personally am not a big fan of looking at history and expecting it to repeat itself. It's a very different world today than in the 30's and the rules and dynamics are nowhere close to being the same IMHO.

    But if you do think history is a good benchmark for the future I thought this was very interesting from AMBG.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/fractals.html

  • molecool

    Keeps extending and extending – quite scary – we could be seeing a pretty nasty gap close to 950 at the open. Mentally prepared for another ass raping tomorrow.

  • molecool

    In this market – are you kidding me? I knew Primary {2} would be nasty – and so far it's not taking any prisoners.

  • PortisHead

    Mole,

    I was pretty despondent after reading the entry by the blog that shall not be named. However, your post really cheered me up and realize that I just need to sit this out and wait for the shit to hit the fan. You and KD have made me realize that there will be light at the end of the tunnel.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Mole, you have no idea the number of times you've stopped me from doing something stupid. Thanks for reminding me to look at the bigger picture and to be patient and prudent above all else.

    Wanted to share a few thoughts with you rats on the psychological characteristics of a second wave. I stole this from Wiki (it was originally written about second waves in a bull market, so I made the appropriate changes like substituting “high” for “low”). I re-read it every so often – it helps to remind me that what's happening right now is exactly what should be happening in a second wave.

    “Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still good. As prices retest the prior high, bullish sentiment quickly builds, and 'the crowd' haughtily reminds all that the bull market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some negative signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one loss, and prices should rise in a three wave pattern.”

    Now, here are the psychological characteristics of a first wave (with my comments in parenthesis). This is what it would be like if we were at the start of a new bull market. It sounds absolutely nothing like today:

    “Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception (sharpest rally since the 1920's is kinda conspicuous). When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative (green shoots, baby!). The previous trend is considered still strongly in force (every day another “expert” says the worst is behind us). Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower (LOL); the economy probably does not look strong (green shoots, baby!). Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish (LOL), put options are in vogue ($CPC near yearly lows) and implied volatility in the options market is high ($VIX down 70% in 9 months). Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.”

    I have to remind myself frequently that we are in the midst of the largest bull trap in modern history. I do think there is more upside to come and I will continue to trade it — but I will do so with caution because I believe I know what's in store.

    And I also have to remind myself that like the other blogger Mole mentioned – a trader far more successful than I will ever be – I too am subject to the psychological forces of the second wave. The inescapable truth is that when the peak of 2 comes, I will be tempted to buy, to hold onto my longs just a little while longer, scouring the charts for any reason to justify my greed. I know the trap is set – I'm counting on you guys to help me spot it! I'll do my best to do the same.

  • PortisHead

    How would you explain the Nikkei? Japan tried to prop it up and failed. Same will happen here.

  • molecool

    Sure, FT – as usual 'this time it's different' – LOL :-)

  • nummy

    remember the july 1/2 spx gap we (well at least I) thought would never get filled again? here we are post gapfill.

    now we have a huge gaping gap july 14/15 from spx 905-910 which i imagine will eventually get filled. hopefully before we see 956.

  • molecool

    it was originally written about second waves in a bull market, so I made the appropriate changes like substituting “high” for “low”

    The sheer fact that it's tough to find a 2nd wave description adjusted for bear markets should be a statement in itself 😉

  • mrclam

    All that crap may be different, but human nature is exactly the same.

  • FormulaTrader

    Mole – Personally I hope you are right and I am wrong. Either way though I won't be betting against the trend anytime soon.

  • fademe

    Only one real quibble on an otherwise excellent post: where you say that you will enjoy watching idiots suffer. I would settle for those who have the most responsibility for this mess suffering…most “idiots” (by which I think you mean those who did not see this coming, therefore most of our population), while not entirely blameless, did not act maliciously…so I can't bring myself to enjoy their suffering…hoping this is some of that sarcasm you warn about;)

    That is not to say I don't intend to make money when this unravels…I do because it could mean survival & the ability to GTFO of here…preferably BEFORE TSHTF…but I will not be particularly happy about it

    But I am being honest when I say that I hope for some miracle to occur and that we are all wrong…because it is COLD in Canada…;)

    Meanwhile, I will keep learning and hope for time…being one of those caught off gaurd last week makes me glad I only risk a small amount at this time, so more kicking myself than seeking to blame anyone/thing

    GL to all here.

  • Keirsten

    G/L to you too this week fademe. Forget Canada- think Costa Rica. That's where we'll be building the ES compound when the time comes. 😀

  • molecool

    And again – this is not a religion – this is simple math. This rally cannot be sustained and if nothing else – bull markets don't move like that. Remember 'the wall of worry' – not what we're seeing here.

    Bear market rally – quite typical one actually. But you know – I fully expected the bulls to drop by and start hazing – thus far it's actually been quite mild. I hope more people show up over the coming weeks telling me what an idiot I am and that the bear market is over. Not seeing enough of that yet – am I'm getting impatient.

    Any bulltarts out there who want to do me the honors? Come oooon… I know you're itching to do it! 😉

  • TurkeyBone

    Look at the SPX monthly we are at a line in the sand '98, 9/2001, 2003, Let's see a weekly close above 953 before we get all Bullish.

    Beware of the July High.

    “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win.” Wyatt Earp

    I'm actually a little “Chickenish” right now

    BTW I still think my tan lines are as good as Anna's

  • molecool

    Actually, in that respect I might be more bullish than you. Unless we see a rapid drop tomorrow (fat chance in hell so far) I don't see 910 being breached – possible but unlikely. Best I can hope for is 920 and 912 if I'm lucky – would happily scale out of my shorts there. Again, unless we see rapid deceleration and the futures are not giving much of the early evening push back right now.

  • fademe

    And it is the only (best) game in town…;)

  • molecool

    It's not a 'compound' – it''ll be an evil lair. Come on folks – get with it. BTW, Keirsten – your bunk will be next to the NUKULAR REAKTOR (dedicated to GWB):

    http://www.wired.com/news/images/full/colombo2_

  • Keirsten

    What didn't you cover already? Stop yer yappin', look at all the comments for Fujisan's weekend post and last Sunday you could hear crickets chirping in here.

    (now protecting self w/pillow for incoming stinger missile.)

    Nice intervention yesterday BTW. It appeared to be quite popular over yonder. Time for me to get to sleep, will see what Europe wants to do at 4 AM.

  • Keirsten

    I spoketh too soon. I like that bed! Looks like an alien might probe me though. 😛

  • molecool

    I'll take care of any probing around here – ahem… :-)

  • molecool

    Say again? Not sure what you mean…

  • Keirsten

    Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk

  • Keirsten

    RE: quality of comments.

  • Keirsten

    $WTIC daily: Looks like a little roadblock there

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=5&

  • Keirsten

    $WTIC daily: Looks like a little roadblock there

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=5&

  • fademe

    Reasons I am thinking Canada:

    1) Family
    2) I speak the language
    3) I am a citizen
    4) Hockey riots
    5) Maple syrup
    6) Stable government
    7) Nobody hates Canada, they are an unlikely target
    8) The need for some familiarity…

    but have fun in Costa Rica :)

  • Insect Overlord

    Wonderful post! I've been saying for awhile exactly what you mentioned: what will happen when, after the roughly one trillion dollars we printed out of thin air to give to GS, BAC, etc, we start posting losses again? We can't just print out another trillion. What will be the market psychology when, after all the sunshine CNBC has been pedaling, we start to drop again in a meaningful manner…when everyone realizes that maybe the worst isn't over?

  • disfiguredskating

    What is the blogger that people are mentioning that lost it? Missed the name and would like to read the posting.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Mole wrote: “How will the public respond when GS and other large banks suddenly start logging record losses again?”

    This fits in well with what my banker friends are telling me here in Russia. I'm told that the majority of their outstanding loans are due early fall and that there is a big expectation for a huge round of write offs at that time.

    But word of mouth doesn't bode well, especially on a message forum, so here's a bit of what John Mauldin has to say about Europe this week:

    In the first few years of the G.W. Bush administration, the banking authorities decided it would be OK to allow five banks to increase their leverage from 12:1 up to 30:1. Which five banks, you ask? Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs. How did that work out, just five years later? Three are gone and two survived with large dollops of taxpayer money.

    Thirty times leverage means that if you lose 3.3%, you wipe out all your capital.

    But as the commercial says, “But wait, there's more!” Let's look at the Eurozone.

    Leverage is now 35:1 and with TCE is almost 55. How did 35:1 work out for the US? Given the massive credit problems that Eurozone banks have with emerging markets (plus Spain's housing bubble, which is every bit as bad as that of the US), will this not end up in wailing and weeping?

    And here's the real issue. They have no Paulson and Bernanke. Now some of my Austrian-economist friends will say, “Good, they should all be allowed to die;” but that is a very cavalier attitude when you start talking about actually increasing the unemployment rate to something like 20%. I agree that management should be changed (as well as the regulators: 35:1 to 1 – really? What were they thinking?) and shareholders wiped out, but I do not want the system to collapse. And this is a global risk, not just localized to Ireland or Spain or Austria. Sure, the pain might be worse in the local region, but we will all feel it.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    I understand futures are over $66 right now. Don't know if it holds, but…

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    CR is indeed beautiful. Just take malaria precautions. It's supposed to be clean, but I spent 3 months in sweaty deliria after a weekend at Jaco.

  • goldpackers

    Thanks, Mole. My two cents on the EW pattern. I believe we are completing Wave A of this rally at ~972. (970.70/ 972.64 fibs) The top should be in by month's end. 7-21/22 has been my target. We then drop in a B wave this fall and winter to ~ 850 +/- 20. This will most likely be a consolidation wave with most of the action between 870 and 930. The final C wave up will then begin and last until next May/June and reach at least 1040.

    From there we collapse.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it might not be such a bad idea to create an evil servants community in Costa Rica – lets start housing cooperative – who is in?
    thing that always stopped me from buying property in third countries was boredom – we might just create nice community there!

    any takers?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that is the thing – there is NO P&L column :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “Wall Street never changes, the pocket change, the suckers change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes”
    Jesse Livermore

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    RONTFLMAO

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yes, did exit
    could have had a wide stop (like you), but hate to hold /es pos overninght when I have no profit.
    Today/tomorrow might be interesting

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this is one sickly overbought market with sell signals completing (/es including AH) asking to drop dead right on the open…well as we know – it can stay overbought longer than we would wanted to…
    http://screencast.com/t/rnlNGeRA

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Dang, got stopped out of my Euro short overnight. The bulls are really blowing their wad on this one. Lookin to buy the dip later today when we (hopefully) pull back. I'm not trying to miss this run to 1.5100 lol

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Rev Shark has been warning against chasing Monday gap ups for years now. I've noticed this is one truism that seems to have a pretty strong edge.

  • annamall

    Really good work Mole and I agree with you in the longer term. I said yesterday we could go up and hit the 953 on the SPX before going down. I will take off most longs today as it looks as if that scenario will play out, then I might see how far we retrace, before going long short term.

    Repost from yesterday's thread We may even gap up to touch that upper BB @ the 953 level before retracing
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

    If we do break that then watch out before there will be more short covering and the bot system kick in and buy!

    Have a great day everyone, Raining and thunder here in Tampa really hard, so I am in for the day. :-)

  • annamall

    REPOST::: from yesterday's thread We may even gap up to touch that upper BB @ the 953 level before retracing
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

    If we do break that then watch out before there will be more short covering and the bot system kick in and buy!

    Have a great day everyone, Raining and thunder here in Tampa really hard, so I am in for the day. :-)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good friend of mine who has been bearish on the market all the way from March lows turned bullish this morning – not everything might be lost yet :)

  • annamall

    Hi David, I totally agree with you! We will get some retracement at some point this week, but how high we will go in the meantime is anyone's guess. :)

  • Guest

    Is rain good or bad for the 100,000 snakes in Florida?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    OT
    if you experience Windows PC/laptop slowdown – here is a good tested collection of tricks (I'd highly recommend “User Profile Hive Cleanup Service (UPHCLean)” installed – normally I reformat drives once in a while, but since I installed it – I don't have to do it anymore (beside – corrupt profile moved to new/reformatted drive causes the same problems)

    http://home.comcast.net/~SupportCD/OptimizeXP.html

  • yazzer

    Well, today's the day – my back-o-the-envelope call on the Qs to peak on July 20th at 38-40 with 39 the official target. My “ANALysis” (anal is emphasized!) further states that we follow the NAZ's track from back in 2001:

    – Weekly from early Sep 2001 to early Jan 2002, QQQQ went up 57% from 27 to 42 (up 55%)
    – then early Jan 2002 to intermediate bottom in early Aug 2002 it was 42 to 21 (down 50%)
    – the early Aug 2002 to late Aug 2002, 21 to 26 (up 24%)
    – finally a bottom when late Aug 2002 to early Oct 2002, it went from 26 to 19/20 (down 24%)

    Parallels to this market take it from a bottom in Mar 2009 at 25 to abt 39 in Jul (if up 55%) – IF this pans out, the next target might be DOWN 50% to 19/20 in Feb 2010, then up to 23/25 in Mar 2010, and finally bottoming at abt 18 next May (2010) before the long, arduous and slow pushing higher.

    NO GUARANTEES that the parallels will hold but I set this forth a few months ago as a plan I am pursuing until I see signs otherwise. ALSO, the internet bubble that caused the 2001/2002 NAZ collapse was much different than this time – this one, to ME, is a much more deep and ominous ECONOMIC collapse this time around – meaning the highs/lows could be much more extreme and erratic – good luck all!

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Mole – the American public might take a cue from you Germans when the shit hits the fan:

    Two formerly well-off retired couples in Speyer, Germany, whose nest egg was largely
    wiped out by investments in sub-prime Florida mortgages, vented
    their anger by kidnaping their investment advisor, James Amburn,
    in June. They took him to the vacation home of one of the couples
    near the Austrian border, bound him like a mummy and beat and
    tortured him over several days, fracturing two ribs, in repeated
    attempts to punish him and extort his own property as partial
    compensation for their losses. Police rescued him after he
    managed to send a coded message by fax. [The Times (London), 6-
    24-09]

  • Squidman

    It was still a great entry but that consolidation/bull flag after the little drop looked oh so familiar. Should be a good run now though.

  • Osso

    GMorning !!!!!!
    Gold and the miners…flying
    My CIT trade seems will deliver……thats just luck….but play was based on huge number of clients and that it was not going to fall into BK….instead ….re financed or whatever….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    USD (/DX) hit my price/time targets this morning.
    expecting reversal today/tomorrow
    http://screencast.com/t/SMxldSw7y

  • Fujisan

    There is always a surprise tape up and down right around midnight (PST). I call it vicious Euro reversal.

  • annamall

    I have that one too Osso! a 1/2.5 call spread for .20 should get a nice pop this morning.

  • lester

    Anna,
    I have been gone since Thursday. Just curious to know what your longs and shorts are (if you don't mind saying). I am 100% cash, but got burned last week bad (down 15%). I need to reverse that trend this week.

  • Osso

    Eaton (ETN): Q2 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.9B (-32.2%) vs. $3B. Shares (PR)
    Halliburton (HAL): Q2 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.5B (-22.1%) vs. $3.4B. (PR)
    Hasbro (HAS): Q2 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $792M (+1%) vs. $797M. (PR)
    Johnson Controls (JCI): FQ3 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $7B (-29.3%) vs. $7.4B. (PR)
    Weatherford International (WFT): Q2 EPS of $0.10 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $2B (-10.5%) in-line. (PR)

  • playtowin

    Hi David,

    You don't think we are in a final wave v down in the USD then which coincides with the move up in indices? I guess v could truncate but I thought we may see it make a another low yet.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we will see at least bounce in USD and it will help to bring SPX down to Mole's targets – after that – roll the dice – anyone's guess is as good as anyone's :)

  • Osso

    Real wages (vs. Nominal) get pummeled down with this set up of commodities up, dollar down.
    Inflationists on a party. They are killing the workers…!!! that are left.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went short /es into the open 943

  • annamall

    Hi Lester, sure I don't mind…spy 95 calls, CIT call spread,SNP call spread and APA call spread, the only hedge I have is POT put spread.
    and long CTIC stock

    Careful here though, take a wait and see before putting a trade on, we have major resistance up here, we either hit that and retrace or if we break out say 955, the program trading will kick in and more short covering, so tread lightly :-)

    G/L today Lester

  • CDOtrader

    Very good post Mole. I agree with you and if your correct Ill reward you with a full 1yr subscription from me. I am going to take 50% profit on my SLV calls and will let the rest ride to see if the 14 handle materializes, nontheless I will move my stop. Something is gotta give.

  • annamall

    We either break down or break up David, I am watching this one closely. :)

  • ACJ

    OT: Fellow Ratz; I would like to switch my broker to one that allows me to trade futures, I'm currently with Scottrade. Any recommendations? I have around $50k in Monopoly Bucks.

    TIA

    ACJ

  • annamall

    great post Yazzer! +1 :-)

  • lester

    thanks a lot …

  • annamall

    You're welcome Les! I just took off 2/3 SPY calls (can always rebuy them) and took off 2/3 APA for 2.40 call spread………… I paid 1.20 for that 100% return in a week. :)

  • CDOtrader

    TOS

  • annamall

    Watch out for program trading to kick in soon if we keep going up.

  • molecool

    I told you so! 😉

  • annamall

    Reloaded SPY 96 Sugust calls for short term trade for 1.90

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    loaded EWZ Aug53p@1.70

    wend long /dx

  • Osso

    VIX green with SPX green, again

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    S&P500 (spx, /es, spy – all under lines in the sand

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    MIRUS

  • http://www.nkouts.com nkouts

    With the whole world looking at the weak USD as a reason why the markets will continue, Ben has a good (quick) analysis for the bear case… http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/07/big-ga

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    I have never ever seen so many bears switch sides like I have this weekend….I have people calling me to take all of their hedges off as we speak….its too funny how they forget.

  • annamall

    Joining you on the EWZ that sucker is so overbought I can't resist! :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    plus if my take on $ holds water – it'll take double hit

  • C C Rider

    3 for 3 on leading indicators? Done deal. Old high may get attacked at 956.

  • chemE

    Now that options expiration has past people are probably looking for protection.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I hope so.lol

  • annamall

    I picked up the 53 August put for 1.55 damn this sucker is on jet fuel! LOL 😉

  • Keirsten

    POT over resistance @ 92.00 Next resistance at 95.46

  • Keirsten

    GS also raised their target on SPX to 1060

  • annamall

    Vix coming down careful here, I unloaded all Aug 95 spy calls and just have 96 now.

    Also joined David on EWZ Aug 53 puts (way overbought) Dailys

  • annamall

    I unloaded all Aug 95 spy calls and just have 96 now.

    Also joined David on EWZ Aug 53 puts (way overbought) Dailys

  • C C Rider

    I wonder where I heard that b4? LOL! I'll be vamanos way b4 then, those bastards.

  • Keirsten

    Yeah, I thought you'd enjoy that one. LOL

  • annamall

    Thank MS. K! :) that's my only short hedge

  • ropey

    Guys, this is the 5th day the SPY has not hit the daily 5 sma, this is gonna pullback soon this is such a rare thing on the chart lol dont care about the internals lol i see that gap opened this am has a high probability of a fill imo at 94.18-94.20 and i'm playing for that

  • Fujisan

    Yup, good call. Thanks to you, I didn't take that trade.

  • molecool

    Island top anyone?

  • molecool

    Where are you?

  • Keirsten

    Goes with that island bottom really well. We now have a bikini. 😛

  • Keirsten

    Be right there… hold your horses Kimosabe!

  • annamall

    I now have a Aug 94/96 SPY credit spread. out of most longs for now. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    me uno undisciplined inpatient bad trader – can never wait when I see bargain :(

  • annamall

    LOL :) how about an Island thong?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    me me minime!!!!

  • Keirsten

    If they keep squeezing the shorts, that bottom is definitely going to feel like tush floss.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO it's getting brutal but it can't last forever can it???? the horror!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    will have to run out to FED ATM – need more monee' for puts

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    HAHA

  • Fujisan

    Possible tri star formation?

  • annamall

    It's almost where you bought it. :)

  • annamall

    hahahah :-)

  • Macrawn

    Looks like some whipsaw from the dollar but I think we get some direction soon. It does look weak here but lately it has moved up anyway. Staying out right now.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    bot amzn aug90p@6.3

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    SOLD!!

  • GDII

    me too. what's the pin?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    surprised – I did not expect to get anything for something I have not got :)

  • Macrawn

    They are looking for individuals to help set up presses. They can't print fast enough.

  • C C Rider

    I've got 945 as a line in the sand for the bears very short term.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    It's your lucky day.

  • annamall

    Sold more spy calls @ 2.96

  • annamall

    You can sell it to me! :-) I need a new one!

  • molecool

    Snort!!!

  • Osso

    sold 1/3 of CIT 1.40….good 100%.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /es spx?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    amzn is still clearly defined risk short
    http://screencast.com/t/kpoYslQTp

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    bravo!

  • annamall

    Out of mine too, doubled my $ in a few days. debit .20 credit .40 (not much but I can't complain either, just wish I had bought more positions. :)

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I suspect the VIX is building some kind of floor around 24-25.

  • onorio

    Hey rats! Not much time to talk today so i`m gonna be fast!

    Mole is always a pleasure to read your sunday posts, thank you so much.

    IMO we might already topped, but i will watch the tape and wait a bit before i short this BULLshit…anyway i sold EUR/USD @ 1.4210

  • C C Rider

    spx

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    out /es short 943 @938

  • annamall

    out of all longs except CITC ( a tiny cap bio-pharma) and SNP
    How completely short POT (glad I kept that) EWZ, SPY

    First day in a long time I am up over 10% :-) for the day

  • annamall

    Anyone daring to short apple before earnings? Please share your thoughts, I am thinking of doing a possible put spread, but have to check the strikes.

    thank you :-)

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Headzup on what's coming down the pike on unemployment claims :
    http://spysight.blogspot.com/2009/07/initial-un

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ty
    I have TD Magnet at 944.89 and TDST resistance 942.45
    I'd say close below 942.45 adds some points ot bear's resurrection

  • AudioTactics

    I keep thinking that the bears may have more dry powder at these levels given that many of them have been stopped out during last weeks insane run-up…

    Therefore, if they re-load on the short side we could see a nice little downdraft.

  • Keirsten

    I'm too skeered. I have seen my life pass before me trading that thing both ways on earnings day. You first. LOL

  • ropey

    a little love for ropey please? i don't get many things right but my gap spidey sense isn't too shabby lol

  • ropey

    You're both pussies lol i am tempted as i don't see much more upside but i think on this one i'll wait until they report then jump on, a better short in the upper 158s-low 160s..also shorting is hard till this damn 956 is hit at the very least….

  • annamall

    I know, but the stock is so overbought that i do believe most of the price already reflects the earnings.

    LOL skeered too!

    But am thinking either aug 150/145 or 145/140 put spread. I will see how it goes EOD.

  • Keirsten

    Interesting candle on DIA on the daily so far- looks like a shooting star, but we're WAY too early in the session to know. All three indices have black candles- black can sometimes signal a change in direction- the length of time unknown.

  • ropey

    they don't report till close tuesday, maybe worth waiting to see what the IV is like, currently its really low which implies not much move i..e priced to perfection.

  • annamall

    LOL yes of course we are silly hehehe :-)

    see my post above Ropey, I will something depending on where the stock is right before earnings.

    Is it tomorrow they are out or Thursday?

  • ropey

    check out GMCR again if you have a strong heart and testicles made of titanium..
    earnings later this month – remember small float, people love to short it = explosive moves
    Looks bullish here to me but will see…remember the deals they have with WMT/MCD..

  • annamall

    Isn't the 933.75 ES overnight futs low?

  • ropey

    Tuesday 21st APPLE Estimate $ 1.16 n/a Previous $ 1.19 21-Jul-09 AMC

  • standard_and_poor

    Good morning brothers and sisters.
    Maintaining 65% long medium and small cap stocks from last week, will add at SPX=920-925.

    SAKAMOTO:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tKfYwc4zxA

  • annamall

    thanks I was just asking, I will wait till towards the close tomorrow then. May get it cheaper! :)

  • annamall

    there's some Luv Ropey! :-)

  • Keirsten

    {{{Ropey}}}}

  • annamall

    I have a strong heart, but no kohonnies! :)

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    I think it becomes open season on shorting Apple once it gets over 156ish.

  • KidDisco

    anybody here see VIX building somekind of a base?

  • ropey

    awwwww thankyou dears! lol

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yes.

  • The Unknown Trader

    Well, it could be a double bottom, since it took out its prior low (Friday, I think?).

  • KidDisco

    I'm looking at it as both a base and double bottom.

    BUY BUY BUY!!!

    full disclosure (long VXX, short everything else)

  • KidDisco

    Short Bob Pisani

  • The Unknown Trader

    Whoever has been shorting it must have a lot of money and love to take losses.

  • Lordted

    Good morning Mohandas, you look suitably Poor today!

    Looks like we might have a wee top on S&P here – unless it is just a gap fill… Am waiting.

  • Macrawn

    Friday highs are acting as support on the minis right now. Some closes below those levels might start something up.

  • Nate

    :hands ropey a cookie:

  • Osso

    If I remember correctly, this Q earnings report was usually weak for AAPL…..

  • annamall

    Welcome! :-)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    going to hibernate till tomorrow – which is D-Day :)

  • annamall

    I was just thinking the same number Dreadwin thanks!

  • annamall

    I just saw this!!! hahahaha plus 1

  • annamall

    You can't He's the “NOSE ON THE FLOOR” hehehe

  • molecool

    There is a surplus of offers these days – I can give you 50 bucks if you throw in your first born.

  • molecool

    There is a surplus of offers these days – I can give you 50 bucks if you throw in your first born.

  • standard_and_poor

    Power to the meek my friend.

    ________________________________

  • Keirsten

    It's got one heckuva bullish wedge built here. If it breaks out it'll take off like a rocket.

  • Fujisan

    Hi, Ghandi, you aged so much over the weekend. What happened?

    We have such a similar music taste! thanks for that.

  • string01

    It's cojones. And, judging by your pic… it would be a surprise 😉

  • LostIllini

    Verrrrry Niiiiiice +1

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    Right – the solar eclipse – can't wait! :-)

  • molecool

    He probably held some puts into the weekend…

  • molecool

    … who shall inherit the world.

  • molecool

    Didn't I tell you not to come back?

    (j/k – welcome 😉

  • standard_and_poor

    Glad you enjoyed it Fujisan. :  )
     

    ________________________________

  • annamall

    heheheh thanks for the correction, see I don't even know how to spell it LOL

  • rhae

    AAPL certainly looks like nosebleed territory to me….
    http://screencast.com/t/1xiMALMinh

  • annamall

    hahahahahahah did anyone else get that??? LOL :-)

  • rhae

    Bears need a slide into the Red on UYG (financials)

  • string01

    NP. Now, when you get a min., make the market drop bigly.
    Thanks in advance.

  • Anonymous

    Used to sell the Big S&P, but would get constant slips in prices. I remember when the CME traded the ES but they were not liquid. Now, with electronic markets open all day – and NO slips – I have no reason to trade the pits – the E mini is so much easier to trade.

    Concerning selling vs buying – no question about it – selling options is a no brainer. In an LLC and the tax advantages of 60 / 40 long / short is good as well.

    Fellow guitar player – play a strat.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    silly you – I may pay to take my first born away!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    silly you – I may pay to take my first born away!