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Austrian Vacation
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Austrian Vacation

by The MoleMay 15, 2017

Over the past few weeks several readers proclaimed that they were heading on a little vacation and I decided to follow suit. For one May is really the last month before Spain is being invaded by wave after wave of sun deprived Nordic barbarians, thus travel becomes all but impossible and of course more expensive throughout the Mediterranean. Besides if you want to enjoy Europe in relative tranquility but without the occasional surprise spring snow storm then May is a great time.

Secondly I’ve been working my butt off over the past few months, not only printing coin in rather challenging tape but also producing one high quality post after the other. The little free time that remained I spent on immersing myself deeper into python and quantopian, which I confess has been a steep learning curve despite 30 years plus of programming experience. But it will play off going forward in that I will be able to offer advanced quant related insights and pertinent services to my readers, which is you. It’s been a lot of work and I need a bit of a break.

So I am heading to Austria later this afternoon to visit family who I have not seen since Depeche Mode and Billy Idol dominated the airwaves (yup that would be the mid 80s). As you can imagine I’m rather excited to once again experience the place of my early youth. And most importantly to fill up on all the culinary delicacies I have been deprived of over the past few decades. Suffice to say that I’ll be hitting the gym rather aggressively upon my return. Which by the way is next Monday, so I’ll only be gone only one week.

During My Absence

First up, try not to panic. As usual all subscriber services (the Zero and the systems) will continue as always. If you have a technical problem then just email me at admin@ but allow 24 hours for a response as I may be traveling or not have access to reliable Internet. Scott actually offered to fill in a bit during my absence but I refused as he’s on his honeymoon in beautiful Tuscany, Italy. So instead what I’ll be doing is to repost some popular educational classics from the Evil Speculator archives. Come on – most of you could benefit from a refresher. Even I catch up on some of my older posts here and there.

Special Quant Treat

Over the past few weeks I have been comparing notes with a self professed quant geek who happens to be a professional trader working for a major firm (which shall remain unnamed). He volunteered to put together a post and if you behave yourselves and don’t ask stupid questions then he may just do a second one this week or some time in the near future. Your treat is already waiting in the drafts folder and I will post it tomorrow assuming my plane doesn’t crash into the Austrian alps today.

Meeting The Convict

But wait, Mole is in Austria while Scott the Convict is in Italy? Wouldn’t that be an awesome opportunity for a meetup? Absolutely, which is why I’m heading down to Italy on Friday to see him and his newly acquired super hot Asian trophy wife. Of course I won’t miss the opportunity to console the poor girl and convey the benefits of Western divorce laws. Whatever time remains will most likely be spent causing mayhem across the Tuscan countryside.

Let’s Talk Business

Obviously I won’t be trading until next Tuesday but let’s look at a few interesting charts and then cover our ongoing campaigns:

2017-05-15_EURUSD_LT

The EUR/USD woke up with a morning boner today and it seems like it’s making a b-line toward the 1.11 mark where I see some long term resistance as shown on the monthly chart above. From there we’ll either see it crash and burn again or a breach higher which could propel us into a completely new market phase. So the 1.11 range is going to be interesting to watch – hopefully it’ll happen once I’m back at the lair.

2017-05-15_gold_LT

Speaking of long term charts – here are the weekly and monthly panels of gold. The weekly formation in particular is looking rather bullish which is great because we’re already long (see below). If gold can breach > its 1300 mark then we may just see a trend change over the summer which could result in a bit of fireworks in the final two quarters of the year.

Campaign Updates

2017-05-15_gold_update

Let’s start with gold then. It’s still earl in the game here but it’s looking like it may be ready to make a run for it. I’ll hold as is with my ISL intact.

2017-05-15_spoos_update

The E-Mini campaign has survived the weekend and once again it’s still too premature to advance our stop. We do have a lot of short term support context which hopefully will keep us out of trouble.

2017-05-15_copper_update

Copper is looking very good here but needs to make a run for it now. Nothing to do here either.

2017-05-15_ZB_update

Bonds also looking like it’s ready to head higher. The daily also looking good with the 100-day BB tightly pinched – everything is pointing at a big move here.

2017-05-15_ZL_update

Soybean Oil was a great entry last Friday. I’m tempted to move my stop but want to wait one more session to gauge the momentum. This could turn into a massive runner and I really don’t want to get caught by a last minute stop run. BTW this is a subject we should revisit when I’m back – how realized volatility cycles should affect your stop logic.

2017-05-15_ZM_update

Soybean Meal is starting to resemble a heart rate monitor – I’m not really jazzed about this campaign but refuse to be affected by a lack of patience. There is no evidence that invalidates my original assessment and if I wasn’t in this one already I may actually be tempted to grab positions now. So why should I exit prematurely? Exactly.

And I’m off as I need to finish packing and then head out of the door. Have fun during my absence but keep it frosty!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Happy Trails, Mole!

    OK … SS Rats, get your short bets in NOW…Mole’s out of town tonight…

  • Skidmarkalot

    My exact thoughts

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL you wankers!

  • ridingwaves

    Travel is great for the soul and in some ways restores your faith in humanity, enjoy Mole, after 22 days it feels good to be in your own bed…sure hope some folks took that EW trade….yummy addition to account while away

  • BTrader

    Have a great time Mole.

  • Ronebadger

    It never gets old…

  • ZigZag

    er, what’s your wheel’s up time?

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah…you gotta time this thing just right…

  • ridingwaves

    L EEM lking for 45…
    L CEMP 4.05 S 3.80
    L IBB seasonality beginning to hit stride…
    UCO is lagging CL move or it could be lack of sleep

  • saltwaterdog

    AVXL may be waking up

  • ridingwaves

    slowly worked off being overbought….I still have target at 7.5-8, needham has 14..
    CEMP is going to close the gap at 6-6.50 possibly extend higher but settle back at that range
    unreal bear raid on EXAS….Citron helping trapped shorts

  • Tomcat

    I like oil here…
    Short of-course! Although be aware of headline events May 25 OPEC mtg.

  • Tomcat

    And if you really are wary of that headline risk, I would couple this trade with L S&P or Nazzy

  • BobbyLow

    There will probably be multiple headline risks as we approach May 25 based on will they or wont they crapola etc.

    I’m currently Long and whatever happens, I’ll be out win, lose or draw by the COB tomorrow. I’ll see what price looks like after the Weds Report and regardless of whether the next play is long or short I’ll be out again by the COB on Friday.

    More round trips this way but better for my sanity. :)

  • Tomcat

    GL Bobby. Hey I was thinking, maybe next generation will be trading Wind/Solar same way we are trading Oil today (meaning that will be the main energy play) so I wonder if countries near Equator will be the new “OPEC”, but I think we will be fckin this planet hard way before that happens with all this black chit.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks and GL to you too.

    Solar was going to be the next big thing and it generated quite a buzz for awhile back when oil prices were a lot higher. Unfortunately the pay back time is way too long for residential solar IMO.

    However, I do see a few solar fields around that I think are feeding the Electric Companies. I don’t know if these fields are for real or for show.

  • ridingwaves

    a couple months ago, for the first time ever, California solar panels generated enough to power California thru an afternoon…Tesla solar roofs will change the way power works from here on out…..this is great for mother earth

  • BobbyLow

    That’s good news. If this is the case then we need to hope that the Oil Companies don’t buy the rights to “Tesla Solar Roofs” so they can sit on them long enough to squeeze every cent of profit from every drop of oil first.

    Cynical, I know. . .:)

  • OJuice

    The roof – battery – car plan is pretty damn cool.

  • ridingwaves

    would love to sell the roofs to homeowners…..a definite feel good sale….

  • ridingwaves

    those pigmen are going extinct in the future, we can only hope
    but the drums of war will help them in the interim

  • RonnieH

    Is zero frozen, has not moved for last 20 minutes