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Awaiting The Market Oracle
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Awaiting The Market Oracle

by The MoleJuly 17, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Once again we find ourselves in sideways mode ahead of Ben Bernanke’s speech before before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET. You all know how I feel about the fact that we have given one institution (and in particular one man) this much power over our financial markets. It seems that nothing else matters anymore – earnings and the economy be damned – the only thing that counts is whether or not we’re going to keep running the presses. But everyone seems to accept it and perhaps even embrace it in the face of a four year bull market.

Well, I may not like it but it is something completely out of my (and your) control, and as such I mostly ignore the freak show, unless of course when I expect short term volatility to possibly throw a monkey wrench into my setups. So let’s proceed cautiously today and if you trade then do so with small position sizes and wide stops.

The setup on the E-Mini right now is actually rather interesting as it’s touching both its ST SMAs as well as a stack of Net-Line Buy Levels. So one must wonder – is this a last kiss goodbye or is it going to be business as usual (i.e. touch and go higher)?

Gold has lost a bit of mojo and is now back at its 100-h SMA which is what has led it higher. I would be short below it and long above the 1290 mark. I’m seeing a massive double BB compression here so whatever comes next may just have legs.

Double BB compression also on the EUR/USD – great inflection point here at the 25-hour SMA with Net-Lines on opposing sides.

A few more charts below for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • convictscott

    Great post, and I urge caution for everyone today. The fact that the markets are within spitting distance of the old highs is going to play havoc with participation. I’d sit this one out, personally

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    “massive double BB compression” ..BB Ben Bernanke …(joke) b4 anyone replies

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Bernanke, 59, will appear before House members today and senators tomorrow to present the FedÔÇÖs semi-annual monetary policy report. His statement to the House Financial Services Committee is set for public release at 8:30 a.m., 90 minutes before he delivers it to lawmakers. In the past, the testimony was released at 10 a.m.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    fib time next low 0900 cst

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    http://s11.postimg.org/47sonzier/temp1.png

    whipsaw Wed. yep, wide stops, 3Delta or better!

  • Skynard

    Major, usually before a big move:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD sitting just under the 25/100 day lines. BOC comes out with rate decision/statement at 10am. Same time as The Bernanke. I’ll be checking to see if he has any dingle-berries hanging from his beard.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Doesn’t look like EUR.USD is going to make it to 1.32 unless Bernanke sparks a rally.

  • AmazingLarry

    Not sure if its even relevant anymore, but Mr VIX is not buying the recent melt up.

  • Skynard

    Just about party time, full pos SPY 150’s:)

  • Skynard

    Damn, Bucky is all over the place.

  • jmoney3000

    Anyone else get about 30 alerts for EURUSD in the past hour?

  • vladv

    Getting 1 every minute. Something has gone screwy by the looks of it

  • Dyellowflash

    Zerofx supports the sell as both weak price retracments are not supported. Too bad I still cant trade yet. Just moved to my vacation home in Malaysia. Internet is up but my monitor aint.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Obviously something wrong with that code. No rest for Mole et al.

  • ridingwaves

    getting beat up a little now..my abx stop wasn’t hit at 15.66..I’m liking this candle trade thingy..makes it easy to concentrate on work…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    crazy…so much for beta compensation. :-)

  • Ronebadger

    OK, we got a nice double top (ES) in the 1 week and 2 month time frame…let’s see about that…..

  • Skynard

    Looks good:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ahem, 2 moonths.

  • Skynard

    Been building shorts the last week, time for the bears to see what they can do without buyers.

  • DarthTrader

    We have 2 days of Bernanke Testimony I think 5 points below the 1685.75 is not the highest we will see. Odds are good market will tag that 1685 – 86 level in the 30 hours

    Caveat I’m wrong often :^)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I knew a guy who did that in Spring of 2010, he was rolling in the hay come-the -Summer. (trader envy)

  • Skynard

    Trading options?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    today? hell no. learned my lessons last year.

  • Skynard

    No, the guy in 2010.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, he would buy 2/3 months out. roll them over if needed.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, check out the div on the hourly now:)

  • bdoone

    Ben better talk a big game. No POMO to help today or tomorrow

  • ridingwaves

    Financials are holding up market today…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JPM daily locked at 55.50
    a spurt could hit $57.

  • Skynard

    He tanked the dollar and will tank the market this time:)

  • ridingwaves

    BAC volume is above daily pretty early..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10day, 10min – trending? or ranging?
    ­čśÇ

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SVL, mother of pearl.

  • Skynard

    $2 bucks

  • ridingwaves

    avg 100daily vol is 135m, currently at 145M, 20 day is 105M

  • ridingwaves

    easy trade is short commodities when Ben speaks…like clockwork

  • bdoone

    I was a MM in SOX pit 10+yrs ago when it was ‘the market’. Options trading is completely different animal now, trading from the outside looking in. But it was a just as rigged then as it is now.
    1 broker would come into the crowd and say ‘how ’bout them Redsox’ then ask for a market in an option. Sell tickets were red so that meant the customer was looking to get short via sell calls/buy puts. Specialist would drop implied price of index then give market while selling underlying. If broker just asked for a market or said ‘how bout them Blacksox’ (buy tix were black) then opposite was done. Either way customer got the shaft. Sometimes the customer would bitch about fill and broker would have them on phone. Broker would yell to specialist about fill then they’d get into a staged ‘yelling’ match to make it look like broker was fighting for cust. We’d adjust price .50 on a 3000 lot to make him happy. Broker looks good for saving cust $150K, Cust.was happy to get back $$$ and ‘stick it’ to traders. We’d give up the .50 since we had a 5-7pt head start on underlying, not to mention bid/ask was 3-5pts wide to start. Good old days.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Dude, your zoomed in too tight.
    UUP has been banging around 22.20 for Months.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe,wearing the proper goggles:)

  • bdoone

    Ben is done, back to regular scheduled markets.

  • ridingwaves

    68% of profit was trading…speaks volumes on Ben B’s plan

  • Ashish Agarwal

    Mole,
    Need to be careful with those Crazy Ivan’s multiple mails. The loss would be ours because 2-3 more mistakes like that and gmail will start marking crazyivan as spam. And then it will take a long time to clear that with google.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Weeee!!! Back to painful sideways churn. We love it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    YES – I am aware of that. I fixed it I think…

    Have you received the recent message I sent out?

  • ridingwaves

    all you have to do is move the spam message back into inbox via gmail and it will not drop back into spam. Blacklisting is another matter all together…

  • Ashish Agarwal

    yes

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (insert self-immolation here)

  • SS_JJ

    SPX 60min kinda look like an Inv. H&S

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t tell me you guys just got all those messages. If so I’m done for today – turning it off….

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yeah, I got three copies of the same message about 15-min ago.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m SOOOOOO sorry!!! I’m turning it off now and it won’t be turned on
    until I’ve verified it. Unfortunately those emails were sent out in
    masses and it’s still coming despite me having turned it off.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I got a TON!! I hope you guys didn’t get all those.

  • SirDagonet

    chill… it’s no big deal… like Schwere, I only received three also…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s a relief – I got fucking hundreds… but it was also running here at my lair which only sends to me. I thought you guys may have received hundreds of messages.

  • wandering196

    I only got three

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I got a dozen or more, no sweat.

  • SS_JJ

    I got dozens of them

  • SirDagonet

    dang… that’s fascinating… you need to set up a separate thread (Mole permitting) or something & tell us more stories… I’d be interested in how you view the (futures) market machinations today… other than HFT, who does what, and how does the individual trader protect him/herself… or, as individual small traders, are we (speaking for myself) so insignificant we just need to stick to developing an edge and be careful with risk management?

  • bdoone

    Plenty of stories. Still same front running and cust screwing but addition of algos, hft, and POMO add to trading difficulty. Thats why you hear here over and over to blot it out and stick to plan. We be small fish in shark infested waters.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    last week I posted
    SPY JUL 167 puts
    Theta -0.0762 on 89 cents. *gag*

    now?

    SPY JUL 167 puts
    Theta -0.15 on 31 cents *double gag*

    front months can be heaven or hell.

  • fisheggs

    Boss. Just wanted to say it’s appreciated. The hiccups are part and parcel and there will be more. Cheers

  • bdoone

    When SOX was 900-1200 and we were net long a shitload of deep ITM calls during OPEX week, the specialist, who held vast majority of OI, would exercise at 4:09pm 1000’s of calls and we’d coattail behind with our small posions. Maybe Tues or Weds or Thurs. The point being someone waking up to a nightmare of long half a million deltas via stock baskets and equities pointing to a lower open (helped by the specialist’s firm, a market mover) the next morning. SOX goes from looking -10 at 8:30am to -30 by 9:30 as the now very long positions panic and sell in thin premarket trading then bell rings and it opens -40 pts from close.

  • amokta

    Ok, where is the Bernanke effect today?
    Market should be into the ionosphere by now

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Priced in.
    But seeing INTC/EBAY/IBM miss revenue? maybe Sky is ON TO SOMETHING.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, you have no idea how freaked out I got. That stupid trend notification got sent again and I personally received 2000+ emails from my own system (not the one you guys connect to). Fortunately my database cut off after the fifth request – it was an incredible lucky break or you guys would have all unsubscribed today, trust me. I’m going to test this thing on my end until I am CERTAIN that this bug is fixed.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so, could Mumbai be worse?
    j/k, rest is necessary for proper debugging.
    ­čśë

  • amokta

    Maybe, but we dont want to end up shorting 10 out of the last 3 bear markets.
    Gagnam style?, No Prechter-style :-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    good thing is we have our discipline, and the tape. 1 trade at a time.

  • amokta

    Ivan-style, Mole-style, and CS-style!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anyone here got more than three or four emails?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NOT in the mood today mate – step away.

  • newbfxtrader

    Got a dozen or more. No big deal.

  • newbfxtrader

    Actually the alerts had a count 29 for me.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    About 25, arriving one a minute starting CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30 Alert #5 at
    10:30 AM EDT and ending CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30 Alert #29 at 10:32 AM EDT

    Then three more later: CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30 Alert #13 at 2:32 PM EDT

  • SirDagonet

    haaaa… you gotta sprinkle a few of these in the thread every so often…

  • vladv

    dozens earlier today as per my earlier mail. Then it stopped. then 2 more mails then stopped

  • convictscott

    NEW POST!