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Back On Track
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Back On Track

by The MoleApril 5, 2017

It’s still a bit early in the day but at the time of this writing it seems like we are back on track on all fronts. Equities have managed to extend yesterday’s humble gains overnight and unless we’re turning on the dime again after the open we have decent odds for continuation higher throughout the day. However that said I will be able to make a more firm assessment of the situation once I see the Zero continue to plot in positive territory after the opening bell.

2017-04-05_spoos_update

I also should point out that the price action is becoming a LOT more volatile here compared with the almost robotic ascend over the previous three months. Which means a surprise move back down could materialize at a moment’s notice. It seems participants are getting a bit more antsy up here, so make sure your current exposure does not exceed your comfort zone.

Make Or Break

To be crystal clear and on record about this: We may as easily pop 50 handles from here as we may drop 50 handles or more in a session or two. This is is not the same type of market you’ve enjoyed in the first quarter of this year. Act accordingly.

2017-04-05_crude_update

As you know I’m not one to bet on lucky breaks but as I’m only [part] human I can’t help but being grateful for not having my trail run on crude Monday night.  That was one nasty scare and of course it’s been nothing but white/green candles ever since. Lacking a decent spike low nearby I am simply moving my stop to around -1R MFE. Let’s see if she can make it to the magic 53 mark. Happy Mole indeed.

2017-04-05_USDJPY_update

USD/JPY was a long entry on Monday and it seemed to be heading right for the chopping block as well. Fortunately the blade somehow missed us and we’re almost back from whence we came. We’re not off the hook however and in retrospect I think the entry was a bit premature as I should have waited for a more pronounced retest of the lower 100-day Bollinger as well as the Net-Lines demarking the previous spike low near 110. For now I will do nothing here but if we don’t see movement here by the end of the week (up preferably) then I may just pull this one as momentum seems to be continuing sideways.

I won’t be adding any new setups until I see some sort of resolution here hopefully sometime this week. We are at a technical inflection point with intra-day volatility on the rise. It’s okay to get positioned here but I caution everyone against a) becoming directionally biased and b) getting over exposed. Tis’ the time to keep a low profile and to wait for instructions.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    The Aramco IPO is getting closer, they are going to choose the exchange soon….CL will most likely get boost here…Saudi Arabia has a lot at stake in this IPO….thus the recent CL push down might have just been a clear out of weak hands….

  • OJuice

    Did you see the article yesterday on Blooberg about the Mexican oil hedge?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • CitizenX
  • BobbyLow

    Looks like Equities are breaking to the “Make” side this morning so I took a shot at the VIX on the short side via SVXY.

    I also re-opened a Long on NG via UNG. I’ve put UNG in the slow lane. Last year this thing ran upward until July and then had another run up from August until October etc. Of course that was then and this is now so I’ll see what happens.

    Another thing is that my “new and improved” stable was running at a 75% win Rate for about 6 weeks with an APE that was way too high. One of the greatest things about back testing is a general smoothing out of the norm. I’ve rarely exceeded win rates of over 55% on all of my back tests and most tests have been at or around 50%. So when this latest run went way above the norm, I could almost feel some losers coming. It is what it is. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners, the same inflection thing for gold.

  • Billabong

    Long NG? The daily (time frame?) buy signal was back around the beginning of March. Today the “widow maker” is on the upper BB and sporting a solid Doji… On the other hand, CL is holding around +0.21 after all the negative news this morning. Despite a Long Legged Doji, the move on an initial BB turn-out looks promising.

  • Billabong

    Time frame? Thanks.

  • Tomcat

    BL,
    Be careful with L $NG. Front imo is overpriced and specs are betting on a bullish weather and significant structural deficit in inventory. I think they are wrong!!! I am short Oct contract.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Appears relatively broad in scope; like in positionable for days or weeks. A failure here would be the most substantial gold move in some time; its really $ driven.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I shorted GLD on open. Time frame roughly 1-2 mo

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Stopped out of SNAP. BOX/ AMBA looking great now. Still sitting on a big pile of oil exploration stocks.

  • saltwaterdog

    I’ve spent a lot of time researching (and now employing) a filter that controls size as a function of a trailing win rate, logically cutting positions back after strike exceeds a certain level and restoring full allocations after a cold front blows through

  • saltwaterdog

    should CL close here you have a shooting star with a high very close to the 50dma and 61.8 retrace of the recent move lower – a compelling short setup basis daily

  • BobbyLow

    Yes, my Long Signal on the Daily for /NG happened on March 8th so I am very late to the trade. But Price looks like it wants to ride the upper 20 Day BB. If so, I might still have a trade. In any event, I have a small position with a wide stop and want to try to get in sync to see if it can remain a member of my stable.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s excellent. You’ve given me an idea and I’ll have to look into doing something similar.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m almost always careful TC. :)

    In the very short time since begining to trade NG again, it has been re-confirmed that for me, adding 2+2 and expecting to come up with 4 fails most of the time. So I try to go with the Flow instead. I found that NG was not a good fit for me on a faster time frame so I’ve taken it to the slow lane for a try out.

  • Billabong

    A failure of what? If GC / SI break the 25 EMA I take notice and monitor a little more closely. They’ve both been trending since January … For anyone that has stuck with them, GC + 8.8% and SI +14%. The trend is still up until it isn’t … swing trades will work because GC has a monthly slap down. Long term, money is made in PMs not miners. Miners are good at certain times and not so good most of the time.

  • Billabong

    I would normally say yes, but the turnout in BBs is compelling … either way, Shooting Star or Doji, the buyers/sellers are matched and we will see the answer going into the weekend.

  • Mark Shinnick

    While trading the 3x miners, I’m noting the past 2 week’s gdx and gld relative to $. BTW, those % have already happened; what we have here is the point of that up move’s continuation …or reversal, so heads up.

  • ridingwaves

    silver still bullish in my lens….

  • BobbyLow

    Another thing is what we’ve talked about in the past and that is time frame and the kind of things that we see as important. Because of the various types of lenses, choices are often varied and on opposite sides.

    But it still comes down to regardless of the type of lens, have certain criteria for entries, certain criteria for trade management and especially certain criteria for exits. All the rest is good conversation to pass the time but that’s about it.

  • BobbyLow

    It would be nice if you’re correct because price has come very close to my stop and it remains to be seen if my position survives the rest of the day.

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    thanks for the zero comment Mole….much appreciated.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looking interesting… support line on the Zero Lite (right panel) needs to hold.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0779954b8c297a9dd8f13b607fae20284aaad3a61e6c0910d58935ef649d6739.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When I see something interesting I’m not share about sharing it 😉

    Long time no see by the way!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I saw that – I think my mistake was getting positioned in between the extremes of that range. Hindsight…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited…for time being.

  • OJuice

    I think so long as the gap stays open it is gtg.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    sold 1/2 of oil plays and looking to reload on wkness.

  • ridingwaves

    SI is only off .06, April thru June usually bullish for the metals delivery wise…
    that is a tight frog ass stop…

    general market just feels like each push up is distribution….sell in May is a likely play this year….the fed run off of assets will cease interest rate rise over that time….metals are primed to move if so….

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    happy to be back!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot miners.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    My initial stop was .16 on SLV using my Hourly. Silver has been my best performer and since March 3, I’ve closed 2 Trades – One Short and One Long for a combined +6.34 R using the same system that my current Long Position is under right now.

    Price has come back and it looks like this trade will live on for at least another day. :) BTW, unless there’s runaway price action, my stop has to be hit and remain hit until the hourly close of a given candle in order for me to close my position and or change sides.

  • Billabong

    This is way too funny … SI off .01 now and showing a Hangman (ST short?).

  • ridingwaves

    took my stops out on IBB….damn this looks real now….

  • Billabong

    That was a grand YM reversal today … over 200 points

  • ridingwaves
  • Tomcat

    If you recall, I said a while back, if you hear “unwinding of the balance sheet”, run for the doors…

  • BobbyLow

    AMEN on the miners. (NUGT)

    BTW, I’ve charted these things both ways and Charting NUGT works better for me than Charting GDX. But different strokes and all that.

    Another thing I’ve found is that Charting and taking trades off of the Long Side of ETF’s work better for me. I’ve found that the Long Side is the dominant trade and there can be conficting signals coming from Charting both the Long Side and the Short Side like Charting both NUGT and DUST at the same time. JMNSHO

  • BobbyLow

    Nope. It came back and is still a Long on my SLV Hourly.

    BTW, one thing that I’ve found NOT to be true is that Charting the Underlying is always best when trading ETF’s. WRONG! – Especially on every time frame but the daily and even the daily in some cases.

    The underlying is great if I can make a trade at 10PM at night. But my ETF has to wait until 9:30 AM and has to be traded between 9:30 AM and 4 PM. So I need a chart that’s going to tell me what to do on what I’m actually trading and when I’m actually trading it.

  • Darkthirty

    786 retrace 1 of 3

  • Ronebadger

    Got your Bot Miner right here…

    http://www.evilrobotgames.com/Miner.jpg

  • Billabong

    Seeing a lot of individual equity positions with Hangman and Gravestone candles going into the close … Something isn’t right with the overall market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, Scott warned us on charting leveraged funds.
    I chart GDX, and then run over to the leveraged window to bet on the horses.
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    Hasn’t been in 8 years

  • BobbyLow

    I remember what Scott said and I respect his opinion very much. However, if you can find the time, try back testing GDX vs NUGT and see which one comes out better. I only use BB’s and ATR so things might come out differently with what you use but you might want to take a look.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Agree it will not. Feels like 2006/2007 again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I assumed the leverage funds had some built in Greeks to them.
    But I’ll reopen that idea in my mind. thnx.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t use Hangman and Gravestone Doji’s but if I did isn’t the candles that follow these H’s and G’s more important?

    Regardless, I would have had a kind of “fun” day the way things turned out if I hadn’t put my VIX trade on. It was OK at first and then as the market turned, bad memories of trading regular equities began to come back and in the end had the same result. This was a failed experiment on my part.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Unfortunately I was having dinner when things fell apart but I guess you guys already knew the drill:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6e5209b6cb670b7a5581f887fda16c3d1e5cab9f2857626a5fc77e88977ffb5.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have you actually tested the predictive value of those candles? I have in the past believed in those things as well but after collecting live statistics for several years via CrazyIvan it turned out that for example inside candles have ZERO predictive value. So you may actually want to sit down and run a scatter on those suckers.

  • Billabong

    Yes, you look for follow-through … The main point was the shear number of them versus normally one or two to none.

  • Billabong

    Excellent point. It depends on follow-through the next day and volatility of the individual equity. Back testing individual issues yes, but not for classic sell or buy signal candles in singularity. It would be worth looking into.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Then that may be worth testing actually. Your starting vector is between the candle and the follow up candle (X) and then you record the price delta 2, 3, 4, etc. days later (which is Y). Scatter plot on both columns and you’re done.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re talking cross market correlation? If I understand that correctly then yes, it is something that is a LOT harder to test and thus it’s a domain where human minds are still superior.

  • ridingwaves

    only thing that will hold it up is the amount of homes that the bammer, treasury and the fed let PE. foreign PE and Hedge firms buy at 80% discount to grow the American Pottersvilles of tomorrow.

    btw-I bought in OSIR at 3.60 and up nicely…this might be a case study someday on how to manipulate a stock to the extreme….the latest news is crazy bullish

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We’ve banked coin anyway. So let’s not be cynical. I’m not trying to bust your balls – it’s just that I can sense when people start slipping into a ‘loser’s mind set’. What I mean by that is slapping a label on the market and implicitly blaming it or other exogenic forces on one’s inability to turn a profit. Again, not saying that’s you – this is a general observation based on the psychology exhibited on sites like the Slope and ZeroEdge.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Scott Phillips

    In individual stocks no edge at all

  • Darkthirty

    I follow no one. My ‘idiot system’ works great, until the computers take over, then it’s just pissing in the wind. You’d most likely agree that things got weird after the bailout of 08…..

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I closed out my energy plays today. Looking to reload if we have a retest. Would like to pick up biotech at some point too. Still very bullish for year but a breather would be good

  • Scott Phillips

    The gaps in individual stocks throw things completely out of wack edge wise for candlestick patterns.

  • Scott Phillips

    Bobby’s system is so simple it’s unlikely to make any difference.

    The primary differences between charting a derivative and a regular series are that firstly the daily gaps are screwed up, you can’t trust the candle shapes formed by bars formed on a shorter timeframe, and trendlines/indicators based on 2x and 3x have exponential standard error (are unreliable).

    If your system doesn’t rely on drawing accurate trendlines, or think that gaps must fill (they don’t) or draws inference on the shape of the daily candle (like mine does but Bobby’s doesn’t)… then you will probably be fine.

    Bobby’s system is really simple. He gets on a trend with a wide stop, and gets off when the trend is over. The more simple it is, the more difficult it is to screw up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure what you mean by ‘idiot system’ – can you please elaborate?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Bears turn now

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III