Back On Track
It’s still a bit early in the day but at the time of this writing it seems like we are back on track on all fronts. Equities have managed to extend yesterday’s humble gains overnight and unless we’re turning on the dime again after the open we have decent odds for continuation higher throughout the day. However that said I will be able to make a more firm assessment of the situation once I see the Zero continue to plot in positive territory after the opening bell.
I also should point out that the price action is becoming a LOT more volatile here compared with the almost robotic ascend over the previous three months. Which means a surprise move back down could materialize at a moment’s notice. It seems participants are getting a bit more antsy up here, so make sure your current exposure does not exceed your comfort zone.
Make Or Break
To be crystal clear and on record about this: We may as easily pop 50 handles from here as we may drop 50 handles or more in a session or two. This is is not the same type of market you’ve enjoyed in the first quarter of this year. Act accordingly.
As you know I’m not one to bet on lucky breaks but as I’m only [part] human I can’t help but being grateful for not having my trail run on crude Monday night. That was one nasty scare and of course it’s been nothing but white/green candles ever since. Lacking a decent spike low nearby I am simply moving my stop to around -1R MFE. Let’s see if she can make it to the magic 53 mark. Happy Mole indeed.
USD/JPY was a long entry on Monday and it seemed to be heading right for the chopping block as well. Fortunately the blade somehow missed us and we’re almost back from whence we came. We’re not off the hook however and in retrospect I think the entry was a bit premature as I should have waited for a more pronounced retest of the lower 100-day Bollinger as well as the Net-Lines demarking the previous spike low near 110. For now I will do nothing here but if we don’t see movement here by the end of the week (up preferably) then I may just pull this one as momentum seems to be continuing sideways.
I won’t be adding any new setups until I see some sort of resolution here hopefully sometime this week. We are at a technical inflection point with intra-day volatility on the rise. It’s okay to get positioned here but I caution everyone against a) becoming directionally biased and b) getting over exposed. Tis’ the time to keep a low profile and to wait for instructions.
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