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Back To Bombing The Middle East
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Back To Bombing The Middle East

by The MoleApril 7, 2017

I woke up this morning only to learn that my country had once again launched missiles into Syria, which quite frankly speaking depresses me profoundly for a whole host of reasons. Love or hate Donald Trump, the one campaign promise the majority of all Americans could probably get behind of was to cease U.S. participation in useless and costly wars, and especially anywhere near the Middle East. But here we go again, and quite ominously so exactly 100 years to the day after joining World War I, or what was then commonly known as ‘The Great War”.

The featured image above shows General John J. Pershing arriving in France to bolster the Allied effort. What seems strangely familiar by the way is that just a year earlier in 1916 Woodrow Wilson, seeking re-election, had proudly proclaimed that “he kept us out of war!”. The following year 2 Million U.S. troops arrived in France under the command of General Pershing. In a special joint session of Congress Wilson asserted “We have no selfish ends to serve.” He later said that it would be the “war to end war”. The rest of course is history. Which apparently rhymes considerably.

2017-04-07_silver

So this may not be a bad time to talk about precious metals, which have beens steadily extending their gains. We are now however heading into daily resistance on both the gold and silver front. Shown above is the latter which is now making a run for my preliminary target at 18.7.

2017-04-07_silver_LT

The long term panel shows us some very interesting perspectives. The first advance which launched a year ago was reversed and a floor was in place shortly before the end of the year. I think that was a very healthy first stab higher and when it failed a retest of the 17 mark was almost procedural. Since then a new weekly spike low formed and we are now once again testing the 25-week Bollinger plus two weekly Net-Lines nearby.

The monthly panel gives us a pretty good view of what I deem to be an attempt to form a long term floor. The new spike low near 15.75 in effect is our new bullish/bearish inflection point. I have also highlighted the current range of the 25-month SMA which is now in the process of swinging up. All in all very bullish and if silver can extend its gains over the coming weeks and months then we may get the opportunity to participate in the early phases of a veritable bull market in precious metals.

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2017-04-07_crude_update

Crude update: I got stopped out by a single tick a day ago. Well, I got lucky the first time around, so I’m not complaining. Plus it seems an intermediate high may be in place judging by the exhaustion spike on the daily panel. We had a good ride – no regrets and this campaign was managed  by the book

Unfortunately no end of week Hefeweizen today, beer and depression do not mix well for me. Let’s hope I’m not reporting back from a smoldering hole in the ground come Monday.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    We are not going into another ME war…This was more a warning shot to Assad that gassing his own innocent people cannot be tolerated (though bombing them can, crazy right) It also puts Kim on notice with Chinese premier here at same time. I have no issue with it…

  • rmwaddelljr

    Well Sir, Not for a prolonged engagement for several reasons: 1. When politicians fight wars it’s a mess. When politicians allow the military to “handle it” with a specific goal in mind, well, you get the idea. No jawboning about red lines, etc. Just shut your pie hole and gitter done. 2. By gassing innocent women & children, the SOB needed to be checked & message sent to the other assholes that a new sheriff is in town. I bet this takes care of it. “Well, punk, do you feel lucky?”

  • OJuice

    I watched Oliver Stone’s “Untold History of the US” series on Netflix earlier this year. Seems to me the pattern was the same for most presidents after Truman. After a few months in office, the president gets cornered into a position where they are forced to betray pre-election promises or their philosophical stance on an important issue. As a result they are forced to tow the line for several years and then towards the end of the presidency they fight back and attempt to revert to their old selves. Kennedy and Vietnam was the most clear example for me. But he definitely wasn’t the only one.

  • phantomflash

    For anyone interested, PBS is starting a 3-part series next week about WWI, as part of “The American Experience” series.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I understand all that but why is it always the U.S. that has to police the world? Further down the line it leads to a whole host of unintended consequences. And what does bombing one airfield really accomplish? ISIS and Al Qaeda seemed to be very happy about it which speaks volumes in itself.

  • OJuice

    Not to mention it’s the same as it ever was. Post WWII it’s the same story over and over. Trust us we have evidence it was this bad guy. Then the U.S. Govt and media use the news to rally support around military force in location X. And the war driven engine keeps on turning. Same recipe for 60 plus years.

    My qualm is this. How do I know it was Assad? And why on earth would he use chemical weapons on his people given the way things were unfolding with the new administration and Russia. Smells a lot like bull shit.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t want to get into another battle about Trump. But I wonder if he is just Machiavellian enough to do this with Putin’s knowledge in order to help get the stink off of “The Russian connection”. Sounds crazy doesn’t it? Well maybe not.

  • ridingwaves

    More a psyche op than accomplishing anything…but 10-1 both Russia and Syria don’t use Sarin gas again…..Their is an old saying ” evil only wins when good people do nothing”

    why we are the police state goes hand in hand with the military complex, money….

  • ridingwaves

    We tracked the aircraft that did it from that airfield…after watching the video on Al Jazzera of the folks dying an ugly death, I have no issue with taking out an airfield…..we didn’t target people….Syria broke the agreement on chemical weapons signed by the terrorist Assad, thus tomahawk repo robot flew into collect on an airfield…

  • ridingwaves

    not to crazy, we did warn Russia it was coming..

    With the Sweden terrorist attack this morning, Europe is going to have to wake up and see that when people hate you because of your beliefs than you have to counter by fighting, not laying down and accepting casualties…

  • BobbyLow

    test

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh we were tracking it alright.
    I wonder why? Hmmm.
    tell me another bedtime story.
    😉

    https://www.davidicke.com/wp-content/uploads/legacy_images/stories/May2012/cia.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    SLV and NUGT are doing well so far today. Nice to be on the right side of these moves before they happen. But once again, price led the way. Funny how the term “Price is Right” is more than an old telivision show. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I was having a problem posting for a few minutes. Disqus was telling me to check my internet connection and my connection was fine. Just a temporary glitch I guess.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    actually, I remember disqus acting up back in the volatile days.
    Let’s see if it continues.

  • ridingwaves

    the CIA is nothing but a puppet building enterprise, I get it…but here is another….sometimes dreamers and pacifists need to wake up to today’s reality….
    “You cannot allow any of your people to avoid the brutal facts. If they start living in a dream world, it’s going to be bad.”
    Mad dog Mattis…

  • ridingwaves

    L XBI stop at 100

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    “We’ve backed off in good faith to try and give you a chance to straighten this problem out. But I am going to beg with you for a minute. I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years.

    I read a couple books on this bad ass and he grew on me….

  • Yoda

    So if you consider Assad a terrorist, then according to your same logic, ISIS are the good guys since Assad is fighting them.

  • Yoda

    If you believe that this is going to stop just there, then I have some Lehman’s share to sell to you.

  • Yoda
  • rmwaddelljr

    Doesn’t matter what anybody else thinks. It matters what Assad thinks about his future behavior. “U.S. that has to police the world”? No one else seems to have the balls to right a wrong, something this world needs. It’s called leadership. I don’t like prolonged engagements without 1. congressional approval; 2. an end game; 3. with clear policy goals, allowing the pros to execute instead of having some idiot telling them how to do their job, ie, “rules of engagement” issued by politicians.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • rmwaddelljr

    That’s up to Assad. I don’t think the bastard will go to the well again. But we’ll see. No thanks on the Lehmans:)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shorted miners a little while ago, working out for time being. Events appear generally more supportive to $ than to gold.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a ethics presence; a consequence gaining everyone’s respect and heads-up to measured use of power…seems like a generally good thing to me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m starting to like the guy!

    “PowerPoint makes us stupid,” Gen. James N. Mattis of the Marine Corps, the Joint Forces commander, said this month at a military conference in North Carolina. (He spoke without PowerPoint.)

  • Yoda

    You assume that Assad went to the well in the first place, without having any evidence to back it up. Qui Bono from the gas attack? Assad or the terrorists (and their backers). I Invite you to read the following:
    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159264981001/the-syrian-gas-attack-persuasion

  • rmwaddelljr

    All due respect to your blogger, he doesn’t have access to U.S intel, or anything else pertinent to decision making. I guess everyone has an opinion. I’d question your assertion about evidence, as neither you or I have access to what the President & his team has. I’m sure we will find out what evidence was in play.

  • Yoda

    So in absence of evidence, then logic shall prevail. Why on Earth would Assad gas his own people if the outcome of the war was up to now favorable to him? Especially given that Tillerson made a statement last week that he is no longer a target for removal.
    There is 0 chance that Assad did this deliberately:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-06/ron-paul-zero-chance-assad-behind-chemical-weapons-attack-syria-likely-false-flag

    Congrats America, you are now allied with ISIS:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-07/isis-al-qaeda-praise-trumps-attack
    All hail Abu Ivanka al-Amriki, the new false prophet.
    https://twitter.com/robbysnt/status/850285390296604672/photo/1

  • Tomcat

    This guy seems to think like you:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DBFqoevfLM

  • Yoda

    yeah, I agree with that guy. Thanks for the link.

  • ridingwaves

    The first time you blow someone away is not an insignificant event. That said, there are some assholes in the world that just need to be shot. There are hunters and there are victims. By your discipline, you will decide if you are a hunter or a victim.”

    Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet.”

    “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway. So it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. Actually it’s quite fun to fight them, you know. It’s a hell of a hoot. It’s fun to shoot some people. I’ll be right up there with you. I like brawling.

    “The most important 6 inches on the battlefield is between your ears.”

    “Find the enemy that wants to end this experiment (in American democracy) and kill every one of them until they’re so sick of the killing that they leave us and our freedoms intact.”

    “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all.”

  • ridingwaves

    Assad is not fighting ISIS, he is fighting US supplied rebels….and throws in some talk about killing some ISIS folks…the Kurds are fighting ISIS….They are both(Isis and Assad) terrorists with different monikers…

    this is more than Syria, this is about the Ottoman empire trying to rebuild itself….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its an interesting article; from it, clearly Assad is not in control of whomever is using his own airbase.

  • ridingwaves

    Zero edge is nothing more than a news shill for their banker buddies…

    Syria played Obama like a puppet….they didn’t destroy any WMD’s while signing an accord to destroy them…Obama got his signature in black and white but forgot dictators only see gray….

    Time for some tribal terrorists such as Assad to know that our current Admin (this is more Mattis than Trump) will not take this shit with falsehoods while golfing in Hawaii anymore…

  • Yoda

    I did not read that in the article

  • Mark Shinnick

    One long term problem is that the really bad guys store their weapons amongst the civil population; hope we got the right target.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Article states the initial bombing unleashed the toxin stored there by the initial target.

  • Tomcat

    “you are a hunter or a victim” which lunatic spews this chit. “I come in peace….but if you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all”???
    This is exactly the kinda of reptile/brain thinking that keeps humanity from going forward. I am sorry but this is wrong!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited short miners.

  • Yoda

    Assad’s CW stockpile was destroyed in 2013. International inspectors confirmed it as well as John Kerry.
    Sure, America can eliminate Assad, the same way they did Gaddafi. But what will be left after he is gone? ISIS, Al Qaeda? The majority of the secular and moderate Syrians that are currently protected by Assad are sure delighted at the prospect of getting beheaded in the future for listening to a Western song or smoking a cig.
    In the same logic, Trump should also bomb the Saudis for the atrocities they have created in Yemen, killing 1000’s of innocent civilians. Oh wait…I forgot: those are our “allies”

  • Yoda

    Yes, that’s a possibility.

  • Yoda

    Assad is fighting ISIS in Palmyra, in Deir Ezzor, east of Aleppo.
    Get your facts straight RW (or turn off CNN):
    https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/07april_10_10_syria_war_map.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Trump promised to keep us out of Middle East conflicts. So why exactly are we bombing Syria? To punish some alleged war crimes? So what country is next? Because there’s a lot of that shit going around.

    The U.S. has to stop policing the planet. Until that happens the military industrial complex is going to run the show.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “International inspectors confirmed it as well as John Kerry.”

    All that sounds awfully familiar, remember? 😉

    In any case Trump just lost at least half of his supporters. A week or so ago he polled in the mid thirties. I would be surprised if he’s polling > 20% after doing this.

  • BobbyLow

    And now Silver is shitting the bed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good – that’s what we want.

  • Yoda

    Yup, I remember. The same song is playing again.
    I bet you polls re. Americans’ support of Trump will from now on not be published by the MSMs.

  • BobbyLow

    Not if I “was” already Long.

  • Yoda

    Looking at the tape I forgot that War is good for stocks

  • Yoda

    Getting rid of the weak hands before the shit show in the ME hits the proverbial fan over the week-end?
    I stick to my long GDXJ position with a very wide stop

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long miners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wish I could advise… went short,rode that, now long again…just one of those daze I guess. Some technical damage to the long side I think.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    SORRY mate – didn’t you read my post??

  • rmwaddelljr

    “So in absence of evidence”…I never said there was absence of evidence; only that neither you or I have access to it. Your conclusion is faulty & illogical. My whole point in commenting about the response to Assad’s gassing of his people, is that finally (all bias aside) we have a leader in the WH that has balls and conviction without a thought of “red lines” in the sand. The rest of the story will develop as time goes on. We’ll then see if your assertions are correct or faulty. Time is a faithful measure of history. The further in time you get away from the event, clarity in analysis is possible. Even at that bias reigns supreme. Everybody and his/her uncle has an opinion, which isn’t worth much.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside, may re-enter.

  • Yoda

    So “shoot first and ask questions later” is clearly a sound policy according to you. I guess our brains are wired differently.

  • Mary

    So how do you know it was Assad doing the gassing if there is an absence of evidence?

  • OJuice

    Post WWII the US has demonstrated one thing clearly. It is a super power and looks to maintain economic superiority no matter what. Years later, the rhetoric and the true motives rarely line-up. And that lies and deceit are widely accepted tactics for achieving the greater goal. Me before him. Us before them.

  • ridingwaves

    Your grasping for straws Yoda….Kerry and inspectors are like a retail trader that believes in waves, I’m sure they took them to the sites they wanted to show compliance..they were played for the goofballs they are….Syria has always been known to have chemical weapons….that is a given….and they have reneged on countless problems….The Syrian Christians are already getting beheaded and tortured by ISIS, Kurdish Syrians also….

    We created a red line….cross it and we won bow down like the wimp admin of the past 8 years…..

    The region has been messed up for decades…focus on the issue at hand, CW were used by a country that failed to destroy them and reneged…
    thus he got a glimpse that communication failures have repercussions

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reentered long miners but sit might be clusterfucked for the day.

  • ridingwaves

    wow this place is full of hopium smoking pacifists that think the whole world is some quaint town in the midwest with Apple pies and hot dogs for everyone….

    So you would let a man beat up a woman right in front of you? You have no problem with someone bombing kids so they can choke to death on some gas that eats your inside up as your lying face up looking at the sky.

    so many terrorist, chemical weapons loving stock traders it’s concerning….We will get our asses kicked with this kind of thinking….me personally, I will not tolerate someone taking out anyone in my family. That asshole(S) will not live to crack an evil smile again….

  • BobbyLow

    I read your post but a lot of times I’m in a trade before you are and sometimes after. Sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. :)

    We have different styles and I’m one of those guys forever trying to find a trend. This means I get in after a perceived trend has begun and get out after the trend has ended. My way is not necessarily a better way but it is a fit for me. In this case, I got in when I should have and got out when I should have so I traded correctly. If price doesn’t turn around from this point, I’ll probably reverse and be short before the COB today.

    That 12:30 Candle was a MF but shit happens.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m not so sure about Trump losing a “massive” amount of his supporters. I’m biased and I’ll offer a disclaimer and say that I’ve never been one of them.

    However, I do believe that Trump has told the truth on at least one occasion. This is what Trump said in January 2016. “You know what else they say about my people? The polls, they say I have the most loyal people. Did you ever see that? Where I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay? It’s like incredible,”. When I first heard this I thought it was just bragging BS. But after seeing with my own eyes what has happened over the past 14 months, I have to give him credit for telling the truth in the above statement.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sit improving, long again.

  • Tomcat

    I haven’t smoked or done drugs in my life, so being called a “hopium smoking pacifist” is a first…thanks, I will take it.
    Now if you claim that you are an objective MAN, and not some internet troll, you would note, that what we (the anti war) are saying is along the lines of:
    1. How is starting another war (where facts haven’t even been established) good for anyone, especially for “America first”?
    2. How the fck do you know who did all those miserable things? You have no proof, no facts, nothing…all you have is reaction, and reaction is for WEAK not strong.
    3. Violence should never be the FIRST solution, and this comes from someone that fought professionally for 6 years, where the main objective was to win and for you to do so, you had to induce PAIN, the type I hope you will never learn bc its not “nice”. As my old coach (may his soul RIP) used to say “martial arts is another way of finding peace”.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Vol is maintaining its legs…. “something'” a bit different could be going on.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Clusterfucked so exited.

  • BobbyLow

    I held my long miners via NUGT too. But FBOW, I shorted Silver before today’s close. What I like about Silver as opposed to Gold is that SLV and the /SI Futures Contract are within a dollar of each other in price (Apx $17 vs $18) so the movement is very close. But if you get a 1% or 2% gap in gold overnight, at $1,256 per OZ that’s $12 or $24 per Oz in the price of gold and a real ass ripping in GLD and even worse in the leveraged ETF’s.

    So we’ll see what happens on Monday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Getting on board near trend trigger points is part of the game – you get 35% win rate if you’re lucky. Just something you’ll have to deal with.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. It is what it is. One of the good things about my method is that it doesn’t take too long to realize that the trade is a bust. But when I catch a runner, as Ed Seykota says ” One good trend pays for them all”. :)

    Have a great weekend.

  • ridingwaves

    Hopium is not smoking dope, it’s smoking the idyllic paradise where everything is fine, the fed has our back, no one gets killed and life is shangri La.
    1-No war is starting, a stand has been made about using Chemical weapons. They do it again and his palace is smoke….
    2. Pretty easy to see when you watch the damn helicopter take off, fire the weapons and then watch it go back to an airbase..
    3. Fighting is fighting, when you have someone gassing kids, that’s not fighting, its a war crime and has been since the Geneva convention.
    As far as pain, we all experience it. No different for anyone. Doesn’t matter to me that you fought for 6 years as it shouldn’t matter to you that I have surfed in waves that drown people and where sharks that you would never win a battle with hang out….to each of their own….Everyone fights, it’s called life. If you look at the quotes I gave you, that is a fighting man that has seen more death then you or I will ever see. He knows their are assholes that need to be shot. There are plenty right here in the US sitting in a prison, reading books, watching TV, learning, getting free dental and medical while the victims family live a mental hell until they die….

    it bugs me when people are trying to be objective about murder, torture, terrorism, rape, molesting, gassing kids and adults….

    I’m very happy we have someone with balls to take on this chump. A great change from the previous admin tools who have no issue with watching an Ambassador get dragged to his death.

    Truth be told if a war comes, you don’t pussyfoot around. It was going to happen no matter if we bombed Syria or not. And it will not even be in the ME.

  • Ronebadger
  • rmwaddelljr

    I have an interesting observation: As a candidate that’s his stand. When you become Commander In Chief you have access to intel, both from intel community & state dept which you didn’t have before. Also, I point out that events unfold, vis a vis Assad gassing his people, your uneducated view as a candidate morphs. He still hasn’t changed the basic philosophy of not getting involved in nation building. I would suggest that because of the complexity of our modern world, policing isn’t, nor should be off the table in terms of consideration. Who else will hold madmen in check? Both Bush & Obama showed us that they are nitwits(Bush’s WMD & Obama’s RED LINE). I guess what I’m saying is our government leaders haven’t shown much wisdom in the past decade or so. Not to be long winded, but too, statecraft and trading have a lot in common. Biases will kill you. Paralysis by analysis will do the same. Let’s hope & pray that Trump has wisdom to know the difference. I, like you, will be watching; and honestly, I’m a bit nervous. I’ll give him a chance to prove himself before I conclude an opinion.

  • Mike Bridge

    Hey Mark,
    I was reviewing a post on Six figure investing about the VXX and saw your comments.
    If you have time I would be interested in your advice about how you short the VXX – do you use puts and when do you initiate trades?
    Thanks
    MB
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be31081827bbb93175d8a2e3e1f74875fa50e231e70daf17e5fc29de91470cd4.png

  • Tomcat

    Your post is so full of controversies I don’t know where to start. Actually I don’t think I will accomplish anything by doing so. Seems like you have been brain washed by “Fox and friends” and whatever facts I present you will ignore them. Good luck navigating through those waves and sharks…and try not to get a sunburn…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III