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Bad Fur Day For Bears
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Bad Fur Day For Bears

by The MoleNovember 9, 2009

Well, it hasn’t been pretty and the daily Zero’s fractal pattern is now at an inflection point – if you are a subscriber go check it out and let me know your thoughts. Before I post a wave count update I have some sad news to report:

AngryWetCat’s broker was found dead in his Queens apartment early this morning. Officials investigating the case insist that there currently is no evidence of foul play, with the exception of a suspicious trail of moist cat litter leading to the chair.

Well, it’s officially bad fur day for the bears (yup, that’s me) and the orange scenario is now in code red mode. We have breached the 78.6 retracement line and I expect a spike up EOD as weak hands are going to cover positions as odds for new highs are now quickly gaining in probability.

2:21pm EDT: Berk seems MIA today – maybe he’s taking the week off – I can’t really blame him. He did however send me a chart a little while ago:

I really want to believe it – just don’t know if I can! LOL 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Tronacate

    I wish I'd catch Blankfuck in a dark alley and just beat the living fuck out of that prick……in fact give me Hank too…..I'll try them both at the same time.

  • gannsecret

    Well a couple hours ago I posted
    targets for the dow of 10203 to 10208.
    So far we've split the difference
    BIG question , will it hold ?

  • WTFed

    “odds for new highs are now quickly gaining in probability” AND POPULARITY!

  • molecool

    Not popular on my end, I can assure you that.

  • momac

    Nor mine,
    So when do we say uncle???

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Give him a break, he's just doing God's work.

    Disclosure: I made a Lord Blankfuck doll and I'm fantasizing about a million way to impose max pain.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Voodoo economics.

  • gannsecret

    I believe the bears are in trouble if the mkt does not close down tomorrow

  • tradejane

    I know I should feel bad about the broker but what should I say?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/artic

  • Tronacate

    Why didn't that crazy Fort Hood shooter do GS or AIG instead………we need some focus on who the real “great Satan” really is…….

  • clutchshorter

    I wish I didn't know anything about trading puts or shorting the market back in March and just kept buying stocks. I wonder how I would have done lol

  • softcookie

    Oh my fucking god…words escape me!!! For Blankenfein to actually think that let alone say it on record is delusion of epic proportions. I can hear Nero fiddling already…

    With all due respect to Mole's heritage, and my own for that matter, perhaps the Nazis got one thing right.

    And please don't ban me Mole, I am being half-way facetious… 😉

  • Tronacate

    Keep on eye on FWLT…….might be time to ease into some putz……same with RIMM…….looks like complete ABC

  • raised_by_wolves

    $VIX spiked down and then up. It's now back at my 25% meridian.

    http://screencast.com/t/awp9sojl

  • PRSGuitars

    HEADS UP BEARS

    NQ now weaker (risk underperforming?) after being the leader today

    RIGHT at the 133 of the channel ext. on SPX (reversal possible, imminent; if not, then see you at 1108! ugh)

    A/D Line diverging (not as high now on this price high as earlier today).

    The thing that concerns me most is DX just… dying. Goddammit.

    VOLUME MASSIVELY DECLINING ON THIS RALLY. sure it's straight upwards and hurts like a stainless steel phallus (RAMMSTEIN!) but it's starting to reek of some greater-scale trap tan we're in. This is why we use the phrase 'cautious short' — Im in heavily still but am only doing so because I think the chance of a 10 pt out of nowhere pullback is too great to pass up, even on a day like this.

    No, I dont think we drop from here, necessarily. No, i dont think I would go levered short. But because im not adding to my core puts, I decided to take a brief jaunt into large-scale IT futures — but believe me, I do NOT want to get caught up in this nonsense.

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah, that's not ok to say, no matter when or where

  • Niktus

    BTW Mole saw Rammstein concert last night. Great concert!!! 🙂
    I have some pics and videos but really bad quality.

  • Tronacate

    Blankfuck makes me migrate towards the oven……..

  • fazhole

    1st tranch of FAZ bought @ 19.75 (ideal buy @ 19.50)

    don't be an a$$hole, become a FASHOLE!

    fasholes.blogspot.com

  • Tronacate

    fashole…..nice

  • weasel_whisperer

    Geithner for me. Even if I agreed with his polices, which I don't, his smart-ass looks/comments are still enough to make my blood boil.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Are you the guy formerly known as Tradingperspective?

  • Tronacate

    He is a little prick……..I'd like to help you beat that smirk into a frown……..

  • Nightwind

    angrycat's broker sure looks like Ultra's estranged brother.

  • softcookie

    I am aware that my comment was in poor taste and would like to retract. Not trolling, my apologies if I offended anyone…

  • davosdax

    Ok now we need to give Dick Bove a few shots of Patron and wheel him out to say something dumb.

  • tradejane

    I hate to be a bearer of bad news especially to a former fellow Fashole but UYG just covered a gap at 5.73. The other is at….the…5.98 area….

    So if you are gonna add that's the place to do it. 😀

  • gregn

    He might upgrade Patron today.

  • Tronacate

    People need to lighten up…….we get the fucking holocaust shoved down our throats 24/7 like it's the only fucking atrocity to have any meaning.
    And then our wallets get lit up with aid to Israel……fuck 'em
    It's just a pimple on the ass of atrocities.

  • charles_smith

    As I posted here on the weekend, it looks like this insanity tops next week, maybe 11/17-18. My reasoning: count the days in the last 3 rallies and each lasted 10-13 days. Last top was 10/21 at 10,119 DJI and the recent low was 9678 on 11/2 (9 days). 11/3 was a nothing day so I count the current rally as starting on 11/4 which would put the next high target on 11/17 or so. (11/4 + 10 days)

    Each rally ran about 600 points, so add 9,700 +600 = 10,300 which is on a lot of analysts's targets as the top.

    MACD is in a bullish cross and full stochastics are still rising. Gold still have a move to make to the upside (1150, 1180, whatever)and the USD may well re-test recent lows or hit 73 just for good measure.

    All this lines up to the top next week, FWIW.

  • Tronacate

    VIX…….invert H&S on 5 min…….looking good…..lol

  • Publius Federali

    I will personally forgive you for the comment. I have been furious with my people this last year and change. Every time another one of these criminals is on television there is a 50% chance their surname bears a resemblance to your remark. What do you want people to think? You just wrote what you wanted to say in a very ugly way. I fear for my safety eventually because of these criminals who claim to be of the same heritage as I am.

  • PRSGuitars

    HELLO?! Bears? Still alive out there?

    (watched a wonderful documentary last night on bears…)

  • clutchshorter

    If we are to selloff anytime soon, does anyone think the selloff would be brutal. Much faster than the rally? And especially with a spike in VIX

  • PRSGuitars

    W/respect, tronacate, has it really been that awful to listen to the story of genocide so that it never happens again?

    I'm hardly even a Jew but I feel such immense personal gravity — just human intensity — for something like this. And I totally agree, i hate having to hear about it 'all the time' — but who am I to say that my suffering, having to listen to stuff re: the holocaust, is worse than the REAL suffering being discussed?

  • Publius Federali

    Geithner reminds me of that kid that got beaten up on the school bus every day. He talks down to everyone with that smug look on his pointy nosed face.

  • gannsecret

    think 998 or 970 might be reached
    by the 16th, but must be down starting 2morrow

  • Tronacate

    Glad you have some outrage…….I get pissed at meth infested white trash…….there are good and bad in every race and religion.

  • Tronacate

    It's played as a guilt card for public policy.

  • molecool

    Who the fuck knows – you sound like your trading is colored by wishful thinking and hope. If the tape crossed your line in the sand then get out. Nobody here is going to be able to tell you where it swings next – yours truly included.

  • PRSGuitars

    No worries — I know what you were getting at, and, without seeming too harsh, wish Blankfein to burn quite similarly.

    Just playing careful w/the personal comments (and I appreciate your retraction/apology)

  • Schwerepunkt

    ECB guy is talking about an exit strategy. What happens to the USD if ECB begins to exit before the Tsy? A full blown USD currency crisis as investors buy higher yielding EUROS?

  • molecool

    What cracks me up is that I have seen those top calls for 'next week/month' since July now. Come on guys – this is black magic – best we can do is to draw lines in the sand and evaluate our odds on that basis – at least that's what I'm trying to do.

  • Tronacate

    One thing though……we shouldn't let assholes ruin our happiness……..

  • PRSGuitars

    Agreed, and thats something with which I have great distaste as that's just as disrespectful (for people using it — not you, buddy — haha).

    gl today Trona — and what's tronacate if you dont mind me asking?

  • yogi_barra

    Bought SPY november 110 puts….why not jump in front…..full position will exit if spy closes >110.1 any day

  • Tronacate

    Name of my horse……..have no idea………his dad is Little Trona

  • davosdax

    The 16th is some sort of tidal low day. With a rally from there up to the 23rd, leading to a fall into Dec. That's overlaying a number of folks different projections involving tides, lunar cycles etc. I would feel much better if we closed today 100 Dow points lower than where we are now.

  • molecool

    I have to admit I added more Dec. puts half an hour ago – but I'm loco anyway – PLEASE do not do what I do – you will lose your ass in this tape.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems like a play on the word tourniquet.

  • clutchshorter

    Mole, how much freaking money is in your trading account to have balls like that (not meant to be answered) LOL. I am hiding in my cave…

  • gannsecret

    Think your gonna be right this time
    10203-208 “seems” to be holding

  • Schwerepunkt

    Shutting in some gas/oil production in the Gulf. Just what the dollar needs, more strength in energy prices. Sheesh.

  • molecool

    I believe it when i see it – everyone is constantly talking about tidal lows/highs but the tape just keeps on busting higher. I guess when there are three big boys controlling the tape none of this matters anymore.

  • molecool

    Less than a few weeks ago 😉

  • bist

    During our last move up from 1030 to 1100, we left three gaps which were all filled on the way back down. Thus far on this move up we have two gaps to fill.

    And the volume today is on pace to rank among the days with the lowest volume of the year. I think we'll consolidate around here for a few more days. make one more run at 1120 and drop, or just consolidate and drop.

  • gannsecret

    Think we are up today,
    2 morrow needs to be down

  • fa_q

    The low volume push higher call was correct. Now the high(er) volume reversal into the close is needed.

  • PRSGuitars

    I know i sound wacky but something is really not right. I think this tape is going to melt down a little bit. Nothing spectacular, just saying this is the intraday fade (was just a *few* points early, eh, ahem). From my aforementioned evidence, A/D divergence + EUR stopped exploding + failing to achieve 1088-1090 on lowering RSI strength…

  • gsavli

    needed badly by me. hope you're right 🙂

  • TheCrowe

    Unfortunately, computers don't feel tides…

  • Tronacate

    That's how I see it……

  • fazhole

    No. Was he a FASHOLE?

  • Schwerepunkt

    What's the lowest NYSE TRIN anybody here has seen? It's 0.33 right now. Pretty low.

  • PRSGuitars

    Ah! buddy. Im with you there — if it doesnt quite happen that way I am gonna have to bail as this is doing too much damage to me to go full-bore futures at the moment.

    Ask me around 1082, I'd be giving a very different answer. Such is the game.

    When you realize you've gotten in 'over your head' with a position — not like the NQ or whatever, that you took a 150% position in, cause most of us can't just… out-size a position to make up for early entries — what's the series of assessments you run through? Do you close half to re-enter later at a better price?

    I'm just preferring to have loads of cash on the side to add to core puts unless i need to be super-nimble (ie, what i expect in the next few days) and reduce my exposure (near 1050-1060) at a profit.

  • elliott_surfs

    No shit, and talk about a late-season storm. Blame it on GS

  • davosdax

    It's Goldman versus the Moon. So far, Goldman is winning. The Moon may retaliate with an asteroid headed to Manhattan.

  • Schwerepunkt

    He was a pretty sharp short term trader and his preferred vehicles were FAS/FAZ. He disappeared a couple weeks after being banned from xTRENDS. He ran an infrequently visited blog for a short while and then POOF!

  • Schwerepunkt

    You mean God?

  • onorio

    I wish market could do the same as what they are doing in Berlin…..look at that domino wall falling apart.

  • Tronacate

    I know damn well when I close my account the crash will start……never fails

  • onorio

    Close now…please!

  • gannsecret

    Molecool,
    My greatest fear is that last years reversion of the Glass-Stegall banking bill.
    The law that prohibits banks from being in the brokerage business now lets the new banks, Goldman, BAC (Merril Lynch) JPM have full access to minipulate the markets. It may be past analysis that worked in “free” markets is done. The “CRISIS” allowed Paulson to put the Investment banks under control of the Fed and now these Banks/investment Hoses can draw on the highly leveraged FED money. And control what they want, that was the idea behind the “crisis” .
    Best part though is they got the public to pay for it. Brilliant

  • fa_q

    Yeah, that's about exactly right. I'd close 1/2 or 1/4 and reassess. I don't usually close out the whole thing because over time I've found my initial assessments to be correct and if i close the whole thing out and I'm right – well then I'm doubly wrong for eating pain one way and missing the other. So when my pain threshold gets hit I'll close out partial. I rarely do what I did last time and throw more at the market, even though I'm up so much this year. But I had a great feeling about the last move down. This one as well. Not enough to throw more at it, yet. but I'm fine sitting here for a bit. 7% straight up in 6 days? I'll wait for gravity.

  • elliott_surfs

    Do a google image search for GS and God. Some hilarious stuff

  • davosdax

    FUQI was up about 8% earlier today. Now its down 14%.

  • denali92

    Mole,

    How about the hairless bears

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/artic

    Markets LOVE to do the UNEXPECTED! Amazing how many people were dying to re-short 1070 – 1080 last week and now they are all gone…. Sadly, caution is warranted until they find out what is causing the bears to lose their hair

  • sirgiyan

    !!!NOW SERIOUSLY!!!

    3 factors I'm waiting for to go short ALL-IN

    1) VIX closes gap at 22 +/- 0.1
    2) IYT reaches 71,25
    3) XLF reaches 15

    F@KING PERIOD!

    (I'm desperate as you probably have probably noticed)

    Gonna buy:
    XLF Dec Puts (strike 15)
    XLE Dec Puts (strike 58)
    and some SPXU below 40 (just for the f@ck of it)

  • tfinavia

    very ballsy lost a lot in the FED game of seven month straight up.

  • gregn

    We have an almost identical fractal from last mini rally. Expect a tiny pull back near term that will be considered the beginning of P3 and time to load up on SPY puts then bounce higher: http://screencast.com/t/xTugU5aUiQ

  • Schwerepunkt

    Spooge.

  • tfinavia

    You lined up a top in mid May too.

  • clutchshorter

    I'm developing a trading system that would isolate my emotion from poor decision making. Thoughts on the following 😕

    -Never risk more than 5% of my portfolio in any one trade
    -Determine entry/exit based on technical analysis
    -Minimize losses by having mental stops
    -Never trade more than 10 contracts per position and reduce contract size by half if 3 consecutive losses are realized
    -Exercise discipline and don't let ego get the best of you
    -20% $1000 winners and 80% $100 losers are BETTER than 80% $100 winners and 20% $1000 losers

    Anyone want to add to this? As you can see, I've completely lost it so I need to reassess my trading approach.

  • gsavli

    that down on volume just wouldn't come… this is a genuine short squeeze. do you think it's time to reasses and maybe close partially?

  • fa_q

    That was the exact move I was looking for. I'm not talking a full reversal. I fully expect 5-8 points to come off in the last hour. 1082-1084 is my target on ES

  • Tronacate

    FWLT doing some wierd stuff here

  • centerline

    Ah. Ramp and camp is back today. More fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

    Seems to me the short-term bullish scenerio is flat tomorrow (maybe a little down) then resume the climb with target of 1120 before she rolls over (again). Timing IMO seems to be end of week to the beginning of next week for the new high. Only real resistance at this point is the previous high.

    Short-term bearish scenerio would seem to me that we turn right here today – but odds are slipping away quickly – overthrow beyond the 78.6 fib sustained pretty good so far today. I would probably be inclined to say previous high is next stop – on Wednesday or Thursday. If not, the bear prays for a blow-off top by accelerating into 1120 before week's end without any meaningful consolidation (deep into overbought territory).

    Sound reasonable?

  • fa_q

    You clearly don't know how I trade or how I've banked nearly 30k ES points this year. Close here? I just opened the position. 7% rally of declining volume? Uh, not a chance in hell. I will short this set up every freaking day and twice on Saturday (market used to be open on Saturdays).

  • Schwerepunkt

    EUR back at 1.5. Key level. Pushing up to the top of the range for the day.

  • tradejane

    Speaking of identical fractals, I've been watching one building in one of the German banks…

    http://www.screencast.com/t/4SOAWyUNr

  • gsavli

    thus far, i've have learned, you are good at this and that's about the only thing i have to know 🙂

  • Cypherd

    picked up some IYR Dec 44 puts just now. Looking to set up a spread and sell the 42s for ~$2.15 by the end of the week.

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah looking at this on an hourly chart makes me want to puke (literally, ES, vertical). Just bewildered by the lack of meaningful divergences playing out or pullback thus far (but I guess that's part of your plan — the bigger they are…).

    So you're in ES 1078/NQ 1740ish? Just curious. I'm ES 1083 and NQ 1755.

  • fa_q

    Just an aside, if we don't get a sell into the close, that's not a bullish move. Quite the contrary. A final shove of distribution up into the bell would actually be more bearish than a close at 1082. I'm cool with either way. If they want to take this to 1100 again, fine. When we were at 1020 I said it wasn't the last time we'd see 1070. Now that we're at 1090, we haven't seen the last of 1050.

  • kryxtal

    Hi Gann, what's your reasoning?

  • gregn

    Interesting fib pattern from July to present: Rally, correct, rally to 161% of high from low then Rally, correct, rally to 161% of high from low then Rally, correct, rally to 133% of high from low and now we are rallying again nearing 100% of high to low. I am thinking we rally to 133% or 100% again then correct. Charts:

    1st: http://screencast.com/t/N3TALJNW4yW0
    2nd: http://screencast.com/t/LOQtZeAoh
    3rd: http://screencast.com/t/zjOSDQKElgjZ
    Current: http://screencast.com/t/3tVvP7DoW6

  • tradejane

    I remember Anna saying that you're good and I don't think she says that easily.

    If risk management is all you need to learn then you're set. Of course that can be the hardest thing to learn sometimes.

    I'm not a very good trader but I have some extreme risk management in place (thanks to some tough experiences,) I bail out at a 1% loss, no exceptions.

  • fa_q

    1074.25/1752.50

  • PRSGuitars

    DX starting to get a little volume — still under vwap for the day but wouldn't THAT be a sassy reversal (yeah, yeah, trade what IS…). Waiting to see.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I just loaded up on SPY Dec 106 Puts at 1.95

  • Woolly Llama

    Why even bother picking tops and rollovers at this point? Dip buy for the next decade….wooohooo, i'm headed to the looney bin. Don't short, go long or die trying.

  • gannsecret

    Astro and cycles

  • Me_XMan

    Shorted a little here.

  • gregn

    I think Lester said something similar about a month ago. But he was serious.

  • PRSGuitars

    Agreed, hard NOT to take this short at least for a swing.

    http://screencast.com/t/96hrlMnavyVd

    Now about the bankroll (and the size balls you're working with)…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    LMAO, Everybody see the H&S on SPY, nobody believes it though. WHAT IF a H&S does what it should and tank this POS Rally. I expect heavy selling into the close to be continued tomorrow….. or…..

    Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor….Now who's with me!

  • momac

    Ok, I've started scaling out of shorts a bit. It can go lower now.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Interesting chart there from Berk. I haven't been following the NDX, have my hands full with SPX and RUT.

    In any case we are at the point now where the trade gets interesting – from a number of technical perspectives.

  • fa_q

    Took years to build up both

  • Scoops

    Added puts today. Amazon ain't movin. January 120/105 Bear Spread is too juicy for me to pass up. Debit 3.80 max reward 1120. Added onto the one I bought last week for around 4 bucks.

  • Tronacate

    Just stick around……no running off for a week with some slut……..

  • PRSGuitars

    If this is a short squeeze it won't get any better or easier, though. That's what worries me most. Can't really do anything to fight it, and its not like we can ID when to short — which blowoff top is the one we're seeking?

    Sucks to look at a huge green daily candle on the lowest volume I can see. Want to stay short very badly but am quite close to getting shaken out as this is just misery – like an Eco-Drive/Citizen watch, fucking unstoppable.

    Forgive the brief whine. Now back to the grind!

  • gsavli

    yeah, that one, whatsherename lol

  • fa_q

    You're right, cyber-hanging out with a bunch of uber-depressed bulls seems like much more fun 🙂

  • gregn

    No bulls here my friend.

  • Tronacate

    That's right…..you just get your priorities straight……consider it a penalty for a debauched lifestyle…….:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Short ES1089. Expect a drop to 1085 or 1081 by EOD.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Well, the Energies are taking some pressure off of the dollar. CL has retraced back to where I hit my limit and cashed in my oil barrels at 10:15. Ida's been sheared out and max winds are below hurricane force.

  • davosdax

    I'm close to capitulation. Market will keep going up until Fed raises rates. Fed won't raise until commodity inflation is too high. So should be long commodities, commodity stocks and commodity countries.

  • bobthehorse

    I have now taken my delta back to flat and now added a quarter position of dec 1050 puts, looking for a little pop to 1091 to add another quarter.

  • clutchshorter

    I did a quick study. I simulated trading an equity based on flipping a coin. If I flipped a head, I would buy the equity. If I flipped a tail, I would short the equity. If I am down 5% on my trade or up 50%, I immediately sold/covered the position. I don't flip the coin again until I close out the position. I did this 120 times from March – November. With an initial investment of $10,000, it grew to $36,000. The average profit per trade was $1500, average lost per trade was $300. I hope I did the math correctly.

  • centerline

    Yeah. I see a handful of these around on various charts. The only thing that bugs me is the volume at the head versus left shoulder. On the flip side, right shoulder weakness so far looks good. Not exactly a textbook H&S, but something to watch for sure.

  • Tronacate

    Trending market……differential risk with a 50% chance……..the trend made it work

  • gregn

    Was that a EWI issued coin?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Profit tanking, errr. taking to commence shortly. For those of you watching the market those red “things” mean that the price of the equity is going down….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'm still net 20% long (mostly the SPX bull put options spread) since I lightened up at ES 1085 area.

    Interesting that the Russell didn't take on its resistance at 593. It's possible the battle for the tape will get deferred another day, but we will see.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/aPELPu6NVrg

    Measured move on IHS nearly satisfied.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Pyramid, or at least hold gains and unload losses in a hurry. Do it properly and you can be wrong more often than right and still make decent coin; yep

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think they ran out of time to achieve it today. Should drop now.

  • centerline

    Just added some Dec SPY 109 puts about 20 minutes ago. Otherwise been sitting on my hands today watching the action. The market got a few points beyond what I thought it would do today post 10:00-10:30 range (my personal timeframe lately outside of market open before I would initiate any position for the day). 6 days up in a row should provide at least a few points pull back tomorrow IMO.

  • clutchshorter

    Maximize gains, minimize losses, it's about expectancy

    20% winners at $1000/profit, 80% losers at $100/loss = .2 ($1000) – .8 ($100) = +$120
    vs
    80% winners at $100/profit, 20% losers at $1000/loss = .8($100) – .2($1000) = -$120

  • WTFed

    Maybe being a bear can get you a doctor's note for med weed in California.

  • bobthehorse

    When we went long, I had 1090 as a 6 week target. We are here inside 5 trading days on low volume. Perversely that's a positive as it means we now have a pretty good chance of going to 1000, and possibly even 920 where I will get longer than the longest thing in the world.

    The market is definitely vulnerable here as it got to a value area with weak supports below. I freely admit that if it goes through 1091, I will have to reassess.

  • weasel_whisperer

    UWM and TNA have been losing steam in the last 45-60 minutes.

  • Woolly Llama

    Haha. You think me not serious? No more puts. Does anyone know where I can buy calls on the triple inverse of my equity curve. Take that to the bank.

  • Publius Federali

    Doc, I am a very sick man, need a prescription immediately.

  • gregn

    I am going to try to short sell my account then buy some puts. Talk about hedging.

  • elliott_surfs

    Best reason I've heard yet. Being a bear in this market can lead to sleepless nights, migraine headaches, extreme bouts of depression. Now gimmeh mah weeeeed

  • PRSGuitars

    Thanks for the reply, btw — much appreciated!

  • traderghost

    not sure Elmo is a bear so we might be ok

  • elliott_surfs

    Steve, I'm out on Oahu and was curious…. what exactly does your sleep schedule look like?

  • fa_q

    What a shite close. At least pump it to the bell. Blow it off, don't dribble it in. Still no volume. Incredible.

  • Schwerepunkt

    EUR weakened by equities did not. Frustrating.

  • vision_invisible

    Sad but true, I'm feeling this market is schizophrenic and another personality showing up tomorrow is what one “bets on”.
    Last week we had the banks lagging, a pretty big omen and today it's all changed and BAC is up almost 5%

  • fa_q

    Anything but sideways.

  • clutchshorter

    Anyone have consider a Reverse Iron Condor (Strangle Spread)?

    For example, when SPY was at $105 :

    1) Execute Jan $106/$116 Bull Call Spread
    2) Execute Jan $105/$95 Bear Call Spread

    At the time, these vertical spreads were out of the money. There should be little theta decay with 3 months left until expiration. Since the Bull Call Spread is in the money, it should have gained value much faster than the value lost in the Bear Call Spread. Then Close out both positions for a Net Profit.

    Rinse and repeat, with Jan $111/121 Bull Call Spread and Jan $108/$98 Bear Call Spread.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Now it's pumping into the close. Shouldn't get higher than 1091.

  • gsavli

    and if it does, like it did?

  • gregn

    haha, beat me to the punch

  • eurobear

    That would have been near impossible in the last 6 months due to almost daily gaps. Its easy to put the lines in the sand but often the lines get skipped

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES.

  • gsavli

    oh

  • fa_q

    Yep, there we go. There's the blowoff

  • Nightwind

    GS is loading up on the futures?

  • biffermas

    The coin flip illustrates the simple rule that money management and a trading plan (actually followed) matters far more than entry point. Most traders focus entirely on setups, not exits, which is why they possess substandard trading returns.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I will not hold ES short overnight in this market. Too many crazy things going on — hate to wake up 10-pts underwater. I was stopped out at 1088 a while ago made an ENTIRE point of profit. Note the sarcasm. Trend into the close. Not even a 5-pt selloff in the last hour. Odd.

  • davosdax

    Mister Bernanke, tear down this wall of worry.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Up at 4 or up at 6 to 7

  • bobthehorse

    Get in. Was filled on the balance of my SPZ9 dec 1050 puts. Right, that now puts me in the bear camp. Good to see you all.

  • Me_XMan

    LOL! HAHAHA.

  • amokta

    bobthehorse – hope your puts dont turn into dobbin !

  • WTFed

    Now that is a classic.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I won't hold ES short overnight, unless an exceptional setup. Just went over 1091 on ES. I didn't think it would., but only 61 contracts so far at 1091.25.

  • elliott_surfs

    With DST helping out, maybe I should just suck it up. Thank you Steve =) Always appreciate your commentary btw

  • PRSGuitars

    Have not seen such size on ES in a long time

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    at close: Added 20% short Dec SPX futures, 1090.25; 1-to-3 day trade for relevant accts

  • Me_XMan

    How big was it?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Would love to see a gap up tomorrow so I can get in on some FAZ (not willing to hold it overnight).

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Shorted IYR via DRV near close; my entry is 17.84. Looking for an easy 3-5% tomorrow morning.

  • Schwerepunkt

    What kind of notional stop do you have in place that I can — preferably – relate to ES?

  • TheCrowe

    Seems like the trick is to find a trending market, no?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yeah, that is big Ben's delusion of grandeur as he inflates the country to the poor house.

  • ultra

    What an appalling day.

  • bobthehorse

    1097

  • traderghost

    unbearable

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Thanks for restatement (club myself upside the head now) of the obvious.

  • KK_KK

    crazy up day… when do we top?

  • bobthehorse

    that could be it for while I think. Have to see what happens tomorrow but risk-reward here okay on the short side.

  • fa_q

    I added a 1/4 at 1091. Will save the additional 1/4 for 1105. I LOVED that action into the close. As sick as that might sound, that action was awesome. I would expect us to dick around for a couple days throwing in some doji's and spinning tops. But holy jesus this is going to come down hard. There is NOTHING to support it. Nothing.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I saw a block trade of 17,889 contracts trade at 16:00:09 at 1091 with bid 190.75 ask 1091.

  • thelefteyeguy

    another one of these wtf moments ….there's been many of those over the past few months. Just when you think there's going to be a leg down…*poof*…it's gone and goes up again.

  • insite

    the strangle spread concept seems interesting to me. i plugged this into TOS to look at the risk profile, and it looks like as long as we don't trade flat, it makes money. what's the down side?

  • Woolly Llama

    Mole, my EOD video suggestion: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTlCUN-lwjY

    I think today is the day I've finally broke; I've f'in had it.

  • bobthehorse

    I'm going home, have been in the office for last 15 hours. Crazy thing is, I've enjoyed it.

  • cramar

    Our only hope is a “Turnaround Tuesday”!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gonna make a T-Shirt

    I Slept this rally

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    My profitability is higher when I get the market open….and have my brain screwed on to understand the days market dynamics…today…didn't even have a chance to review and blog ideas prior to being pummeled.

  • Nightwind

    EWI STU might be an interesting read today. New dow high with a new lower USD.

  • Publius Federali

    This rally on no volume says something to me, the problem is I just don't know what. I am looking at the hourly ES and the largest volume for any hourly period in almost six days since we hit the low was the last hour on 11/4, which just so happened to be the largest hourly down move this entire time. Sure enough, the second largest volume is the second hour of Friday, which happens to be the second longest down candle in the run up. I get the feeling that if any selling pressure comes into this market there will be no buyers for it.

  • centerline

    It sure seems that way. Close eyes – go long – turn-off computer. Come back months later and collect profits. Sure beats my system, no doubt.

    I agree about calling tops… just looking at the fractals and getting some feel for where I personally might change stance (or underwear at this rate).

  • Woolly Llama

    I'm not in front of TOS to see risk profile but aren't we talking the opposite of an Iron Condor? Instead of “buying” an IC you are “selling” an IC. Max profit is diff b/t debit paid and $100 strike spread, no?

  • Woolly Llama

    How about “I've faded the rally for 6 months and all I've got left is this t-shirt”

  • Marc45

    Is it me or do Mole's charts with the Orange and Blue scenarios always seem to say “the market could go up or it could go down from here”?

  • davosdax

    Today was a Bradley turn date. Just like the one in July, it was a huge up day that broke a right shoulder.

  • Woolly Llama

    Although I don't quite have the pyschology to stand up to this shit anymore, it just proves the need for a diversification of methods and ability to adapt. Think of how well true trend-following systems have done.

  • Publius Federali

    That is what they should say, if not there would be no risk and we would all be rolling in cash instead of trying to figure out how a market rallies up into the teeth of a depression.

  • TheCrowe

    If you can spot a trending market, it's not a matter of if, but rather how much, your system can make.

  • slickwilly

    You forgot…Or it could go sideways!

  • brendl

    yeah…my sentiments as well. we've had a few days these past two months where buyers were completely absent and thew mkt took a shit. I think its pretty clear we have a major case of collusion here. I get this image in my mind of a greedy kid in the sandbox who takes everyones toys and suddenly has no one to play with. Are we (the bears) leaving the box? Is that whats happening? I think we have to step into the bullies shoes and imagine what it would take for everyone…esp. retail, to step back in the sandbox.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    at least he eliminates sideways….

  • bobthehorse

    The value lies in identifying where and when markets turn from negative bias to positive bias. It's called trading – it's about putting numbers on scenarios and living or dying by it.

  • Anonymous

    Im with ya. the illuminati need their fall guy. just waiting for whats her name in alaska to be next prez…Im serious.

  • newbear

    “You're my only hope”

  • tfinavia

    Great, but wait, it turned at SPX 1030 a week ago.

  • Publius Federali

    Anyone get the feeling that our markets and economy remind them of this Naked Gun clip?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

  • vision_invisible

    haha thanks … “Nothing to see here” is the Fed's balance sheet

  • clutchshorter

    You're right, the only downside is if we trade flat but given the time horizon of 3+ months, there “should” be some movement in either direction. If SPY isn't moving in either direction, just get out of the position. The risk/reward is excellent in my opinion and as soon as it goes in the money, profits should mount.

    Or just look for high beta stocks, GOOG, BIDU, FSLR. But I prefer the SPY

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Obi-Wan, save us bears

  • Schwerepunkt

    Obi wan kenobi?

  • Schwerepunkt

    haha! great minds think alike. Just saw your response . . .

  • Tronacate

    Wow…….I saw the little selloff thinking we close lower…….I leave for 30 minutes and holy shit…….

  • TransworldDepravity

    The Alec Guinness version not Ewan MacGregor version.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Great entry. I must say that I completely didn't expect the break of 42 on the volume.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    I was aware of that – now let's see what really transpires. BTW, the spiral calendar guys also expect this to be a temporary top with one more spike to come after a drop.

  • molecool

    Not true – I often remove the lower probability scenarios when I don't think they are worth mentioning. And you guys do start to understand that there are always various scenarios possible. When I'm clear on a direction I do make it a point to point it out, plus I always tell you guys which way I'm trading.

    But hey, IF it makes you feel better about losing today, just blame Mole's analysis 😉

  • molecool

    But but but… it's so much easier to just blame Mole!!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    I don't think anyone expected today's market action. I will say that I'm expecting IYR to consolidate around 42 (touching the 50 MA at 41.73 at the most) before the next leg up. Looking to sell DRV at 18.50-ish. in the first 1/2 hour of trading tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    and I was totally completely wrong–and could be here too. You draw a line in the sand, plan your trade and if it doesn’t work, blow it out. I was wrong in August too….

  • Anonymous

    GS,
    I am still very confident of Nov 16/17 being a turn as you are. Do you think it could be a high instead of a low ? Thanks !

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    who's blaming mole? I'll just cry havoc and unleash the hamsters of war!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then blame the hamster

    the fall is still in progress, I'll be f”%”ed (literally) if I let a bear scare movement scare an hamster

    this is going to BPSPX 55 whether they like it or not (and 68 was me being a pussy and it hasn't been breeched yet)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-445F_4AF89B7A.html

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • cramar

    A “turn date” whether Bradley or otherwise is just that—a t-u-r-n date! Which means the market will turn…as in it has been going up for months, therefore it should reverse! If it does not and instead we have a major move in the existing direction, then any system that pegs a “turn date” is just so much BS. I'll give you one day grace on this. If it does not reverse trend tomorrow, then so much for Bradley.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, did 3Xlong may june

  • Woolly Llama

    After looking at this, you would consider this a straddle-strangle swap correct?

  • cramar

    A “turn date” whether Bradley or otherwise is just that—a t-u-r-n date! Which means the market will turn…as in it has been going up for months, therefore it should reverse! If it does not and instead we have a major move in the existing direction, then any system that pegs a “turn date” is just so much BS. I'll give you one day grace on this. If it does not reverse trend tomorrow, then so much for Bradley.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, did 3Xlong may june

  • Woolly Llama

    After looking at this, you would consider this a straddle-strangle swap correct?

  • gannsecret

    T-dub

    I'm done posting on ES but I still think the 16th is a low

             for you             gannsuntoldsecret@yahoo.com