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Barbarians At The Gate
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Barbarians At The Gate

by The MoleDecember 15, 2017

This doesn’t seem to be my month as I had an extremely crappy day yesterday. And I’m not even referring to the almost instant stop outs I racked up on the E-Mini and the EUR/USD (fortunately position sizing was small in anticipation of monkey business). So what happened was that I got in touch with my hosting company about some strange errors a few readers and I kept seeing when loading the site. Some sys admin at my hosting firm decided to dig deeper and then came back saying that evilspeculator had suffered an SQL injection attack and that the entire database most likely would have to be rebuilt. YIKES!!! Relax – it turned out to be bullpucky and everything is fine. But you can imagine how much sleep I’ve gotten last night.

I’m pretty technical, having been a developer for almost 30 years now, but unfortunately I’m a pretty shitty sys admin. So after dealing with less than confidence invoking tech support at my hosting firm I asked Scott if he knew a good admin who could sort out the problem. Right away he forwarded me the contact info of a guy in Australia who he had worked with. The guy went to work and in the end it turned out to be a misconfiguration in the db’s charset setting. He also found a lot of crud that had accumulated on the system over the past nine years and will require a bit of house cleaning over the coming days.

So NO hacking attack had occurred (or at least succeeded) and he fixed the site loading problem within a few minutes. As you can imagine I am not pleased about the unnecessary emotional roller coaster (and waste of a complete day) my hosting firm put me through and will be looking for another [better] one. Anyway, just to be sure – IF you see a page loading error resembling this:

PHP Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 327155712 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 33554432 bytes)

… then please send me an email to admin@ right away. Thanks in advance and apologies for any problems you may have had accessing the site.

Alright, back to trading and although I’m not in my best mental state right now I was able to scrape together a few interesting nuggets for you guys. For starters the E-Mini is currently reversing yesterday’s concerted sell off and I expect the 100-hour SMA to be recaptured near the opening bell. Quite frankly this is one campaign I should have just said no to given the historical statistics for week #50 on the Spiders.

The Zero indicator remained flat all through yesterday’s session with the max bearish signal slightly above 0.4. Which means there was no meat on the bone here and the tape was driven by a minimal number of participants. I would not have expected this this early in the season and it looks like profit taking to me. Could also signal early signs of distribution, especially given the run up early this morning. By the way, if you’re not yet a Zero sub then don’t waste time and sign up here!

The UVOL:DVOL scanner shows us that selling really took off steadily after lunch. Liquidity seems to simply have switched from buying on Wednesday to selling on Thursday.

Now the VIX started to fall toward the end of the session, which caused the SPX:VIX ratio to punch up a little. Price responded a little but only followed through overnight, of course after which most retail participants are able to do anything about it.

Here’s the VIX in all its gory. That little diagonal it’s been painting lately seems to be holding and our current inflection point for gravity control seems to be around the 10 mark and rising. Look for late last year to see what happened next. It’s not impossible we’re going to see a similar sell off in equities in January but I don’t want to draw premature conclusions. Just be advised that IV is being priced incrementally higher. I hope you bought those LT puts when I told you.

And here’s the second symbol that ended in an almost instant stop out yesterday. I must say, I would have taken this particular entry any time and no regrets here. Obviously this is actually a pretty good spot for re-entry but I’m not in the best of moods right now and need a bit of time to recover mentally. So I won’t enter here for now but if you’re brave and have less than half a percent to burn then use any drop toward to the 100-hour SMA with a stop below 1.1750.

Public Service Announcement

The past year and the recent months in particular have been pretty taxing for me in terms of sheer workload and meeting internal deliveries. I’m literally pulling 12 to 14 hour days 7 days per week. Which is largely responsible for my relative absence in the comment section. However let me assure you all that I’m working my butt off in the background in preparation of very exciting goodies (i.e. systems) everyone here will be able to benefit from all through 2018 and beyond. Evil Speculator is getting even better and I hope you’ll all be along for the ride.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Damn Mole, your having some hosting nightmares….for the sake of your evil rats, take a break from here on out, 1 post a week max thru Jan. 1….you deserve it politburo chief…..
    last day of painting indexes to a number….bring on Xmas

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – if I stop posting ahead of the holidays I’ll have three subs left 😉

    No worries, the Mole is resilient. I’m okay as long as I get the week between X-Mas and NYE off.

  • BobbyLow

    Having a couple of losses makes you human. Having many more winners than losers over time makes you a good trader. 🙂

    It sounds like you have a lot on your plate Mole and there’s only so much time in a day to take care of business. You have good players contributing to the comment section now that should help pick up some of the slack when you can’t be here.

  • Darkthirty

    Mercury retrograde………..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys have been awesome lately and I’m grateful you all keep up the good work. Thanks BL!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That explains the loading problems then 😉

  • Darkthirty

    Glitches through 12/25

  • ridingwaves

    Geminid meteor showers balance it out

  • Darkthirty

    Jupiter ingressing into the sign of Scorpio has probably nullified any of that effect

  • evilasevildoes

    thx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ROFLMAO.

  • saltwaterdog

    Bobby – you keep trade records right? Assuming you’ve got a trade date in there, take a look at CL stats during roll week. I’m 1000+ CL trades in and what I found during the week of the roll is pretty helpful.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    You’re correct, my memory is slipping worse than the old farmer’s………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    New Moon on Monday.
    he he.

  • Darkthirty

    solstice on Thursday.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Saltwaterdog, I’ll take a look.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    short ES @ 2677 tender parts, meet woodchipper

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh come on, Where’s the Xmas Spirit?
    😉

    http://image.desk7.net/Models%20Wallpapers/3132_1280x800.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    Trying to stack money, not get rid of it!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Do, or Do Not.

    JEDI 8 tonight.
    WooHoo.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/f8-o3M7cuyk/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    My kind of woman, right there!

  • Darkthirty

    40s all next week in northern indiana

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    priced in.

    EDIT: heat wave in Missouri tomorrow, 60’s.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Meh – the ruined it. Nothing beats the old classics.

  • Darkthirty

    They can’t seem to come up with anything new, remakes/sequels/resurrections of old ideas….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    me thinks NG related companies can be bought for a couple bitcoin now….or less….
    total carnage…maybe a frijoles rising blowing the price out…

  • Darkthirty

    Yoda never traded against algos

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you need a big Orange arrow every time VWAP is crossed.
    😉
    yesterday closing baby bears didn’t stand a chance.
    https://dncache-mauganscorp.netdna-ssl.com/thumbseg/901/901211-bigthumbnail.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Anyone remember a couple of years ago when some talking head said that it wouldn’t be too long before the Dow reaches 30,000. It really sounded crazy back then but only a little more than 5K to go. . .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Today is a good example of how the Mole signals get overwhelmed in a strong squeeze higher. Meaning: don’t even think about being long. Although I do like that developing bearish divergence on the Zero Lite. Still > the mark however so I won’t step in front of that freight train.

    Also, we can clearly see where the participation is – not on the way down but on the way up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It was one year ago.
    Yoda called out 20K.

    I mentioned LED hats.

    http://evilspeculator.com/no_escape_from_winter/#comment-3061313196

    -GG_Savant

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Harley Quinn is so hotttt….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AND YES,
    even wildy beyond my greatest expectations.

    [INDU]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&st=2012-01-01&id=p40341803855
    -GG

  • BobbyLow

    You and Yoda need to be on CNBC. LOL

    It took around a 100 years to reach the first 10,000 and about 16 years for the second 10,000 and at the current pace it looks like about 3 years for the third 10,000 to hit.

    And then 40,000 to come and then 50,000 etc., etc.,. We’re not in a bubble though. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    based on the DOW 2009 low, 25K and a QUARTER is roughly the upper limit.
    🙂

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&st=2008-03-01&id=p13054168016

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes, a really good crew here. I’m better looking. 😀

    Funny numbers. worthless paper.
    like I’ve parroted. Zimbabwe B!tchez.

    2019 was supposed to be the technological rapture. But not quite on time.
    https://www.antropy.co.uk/blog/the-singularity-is-near-how-kurzweils-predictions-are-faring/

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    was that a PUN? that was a pun (knee slap)

  • ridingwaves

    the talking head must have worked for GS, gods work I tell ya

  • ridingwaves

    gerbil response rates on pun has always measured on slow side….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slow here today – how’s my crew? Christmas shopping?

  • ridingwaves

    just think the folks who bought TVIX on 10-25 at 10.60..they were thinking it was cheap….
    in 50 days your halved….at 5+
    the vix was 13.60 and now 9.40

    post vix drip, a virus of contango proportions

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been a really slow day for me (not complaining) as my 2 open positions of Long Gold and Long Oil are currently up a little bit after sleep walking all day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You need to talk to Julie.
    unless she has yet another dog excuse, her commitment is just so-so.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, can really only be bot while …being bot.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bigtime congrats getting your accumulated errs troubleshooted, huge beyond words relief I can only imagine Mole.