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Bear Capitulation Monday Rub Down
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Bear Capitulation Monday Rub Down

by The MoleJuly 20, 2009

3:15pm EDT: Yet another brutal day for the bears – we have now arrived at my anticipated target for Soylent Green – which is 952.5 to 955.

As you can see when looking at the Zero Lite chart – the bears today did not even dare try to sell this tape. There’s a complete lack of selling pressure – a theme that started mid last week and seems to have continued today. The bulls were in complete control all day – the little dip we saw was merely a VWAP revertion which allowed the bulls to buy the dip yet again for a rally into the close.

We are now getting to the point where we need to see an immediate reversal otherwise we could easily see another 30 day SPX day – to the upside that is.

Bears all around me are throwing in the towel – many have finally embraced the notion that a new bull market is upon us. This is quite amusing to me – although I don’t enjoy taking losses either, I usually don’t base my long term market outlook on five trading days. But the dominating sentiment among a majority of the bears has now reached one of capitulation. Let’s take a quick look at our Bear Emoto-Meter:

Remember just one week ago – when many couch potatoe bears were salivating at their Head & Shoulder neckline? Boy, have they changed their tune since then – the chart above shows the mental stages most of them were put through in the days after. It hasn’t been pretty and I can assure you right now and here that most of them finally capitulated after hoping that the Monday after OPX would bestow them with a chance to cash out. Which is actually why I was hoping for Soylent Orange but deep inside expected Green (or worse) to play out.

However, I do enjoy seeing capitulation all around me. I’ve always been a bit of maverick and that attitude has served me well as a trader. I can’t guarantee that we’re going down tomorrow but heck – I got August puts and let’s see if the 952 mark today was the lowest point until expiration. I personally think not 😉

BTW, before I forget it:

geronimo/ES: + 2.5 : one winning trade.

Not sure what you guys are waiting for but there are only a handful of subs so far. Maybe it’s all the fear and desperation out there – little boys and girls don’t want to play anymore – LOL. Yeah, yeah – you can call me an asshole (which I am) but I do make a good point every once in a while.

Ponder about that before tomorrow’s session.

7:42pm EDT: Zugabe:


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Long txn at 23.10..Earnings out

  • annamall

    How did they do BH? my F—-ing internet went out..??

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    They beat by .2 cents

  • annamall

    Hi Mole, great call last week and you sure did nail it! Now that everyone is capitulating I am short term going bearish, like I told CC Rider I am neither always bullish or bearish, but a chameleon, what color the tape is I adapt. :)

    Net income I see for TXN is down 95% from last year, whoa does that tell you something!

  • ropey

    TXN beat..going up now…
    Looks like yet another green day, what's that 8-9 in a row now? lol
    Looks like no red days on this market…what a gong show

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Fuck yea txn pumping to the upside.Weeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • lester

    23.77 now and SPY up .09

  • annamall

    thank you! Good call by you on the buy side :)

  • annamall

    Don't worry Lester, the lust will come off the shine. 😉 try to look @ more than 5 seconds and you will do great! 😉

  • Lordted

    Just coming off now… So tempting to go short here… But will wait. As Mole says if this thing drops it won't be a little move..

    Past my bed time Good night and good luck America…

  • annamall

    Futs are in the red on my screen right now, not much but red. 😉

  • lester

    TXN down 0.11 now

  • annamall

    Night night Ted! (for some reason I want to call you Teddy) :-)

    See you tomorrow, so far futs in red, but as we know anything can happen overnight.

    :-)

  • lester

    I was just giving you an up to minute report. Still short with some SPY Put 1/30th of my portfolio

  • annamall

    what that song by Steve Miller band “take the $$$ and run”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFGZufk4HFs

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my emoto-meter is broken – I am constantly salivating and pissed off at the same time!

  • ropey

    you're an AH animal :) not sure how you do it – too whacky the action for me..seems TXN coming off the boil – maybe it'll be a scapegoat for a 'small' pullback tomorrow…

  • gusrock1414

    Hey everyone, hate that I missed out on most of the day but looks like the Bears are hating life once again. I was reading D. Rosenberg's analysis today and looks like he is right on with a bounce similar to 2002 where we didn't start falling til about September. Looks like we have another month or so of this BS to deal with.

  • Tronacate

    Lower the expectations far enough and all the kids pass the course.
    I guess being able to write your name on a test is good enough.
    ETN and TXN both down about 90%ish from last year…….good job.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I think there are so few Geronimo subs because it requires $400k in capital and everyones account has taken such a beating in this retardedly painful rally

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yea it seems to be selling off.I have a sell order at 23.50

  • ropey

    hopefully the bar gets harder to jump as they go through earnings season. Notice all the upgrades this morning…
    Definitely whacky to see stocks near 9-12month highs and their earnings estimate to be 40% of where they were at the same time period..

  • annamall

    Hi Gus, we missed you today (or at least I did) hehehe. yes, I concur in the next few days expect some retracement and will then go long again.

    Today i sold almost 3/4 longs and went 60% short by EOD.

    Hope to see you tomorrow!

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO you are hysterical!! hehehehe

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    With all due respect, but you don't need a $400K account to trade any scalping strategy. I don't know the ins and outs of his system but I can guarantee you that $400K is not needed to have a decent income-generating scalping system.

  • annamall

    Hope you got it filled :)

  • lester

    60% short! I lost my butt last week holding 30% short thru INTC earnings

  • annamall

    See now! :-) Mrs. Smith (from Mr and Mrs. Smith) “who's your momma now?” 😛

  • Autopsias

    Guys I'm a Geronimo user, and I don't have a $400k account by any means, we martians don't have that kind of money, we only have ice and rocks in our barren planet you know…

    I know, I'm contravening the rules, I guess I'm a bit of a maverick too…

    It not only gave me the points Mole mentioned today, but also kept me from shorting in the exact point I was stupidly thinking of doing…

    My experience anyway…

  • annamall

    We'll do good tomorrow, now if we a really decent drop sell take the money and run! :-)

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yeah I agree, I think he said it was one of his sign up requirements though

  • annamall

    I went legged in short this afternoon. I told you this morning I was selling most all longs today. I know you saw it, because you replied. LOL

  • PRSGuitars

    I think that was just an error in assessment, not what v8 actually meant (that might've been taken as hyperbole, for example) — isn't it $50k required?

    That's partially to scalp enough contracts, partially to eschew the lesser traders, myself and presumably many others included, who might not be ready to trade an aggressive and demanding system versus evil.rat/res.evil.whatever/zero/etc… right?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Nuh… I am just old :)

  • lester

    You are right in that I knew you sold all your longs. I was just
    surprised to see you 60% short. I have gotten killed with positions
    that big.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    before I retire for tonight, I want you to see something, in DeMark “books” it is simply amazing (knowing that 9 such closes are enough for completed Sell Setup)
    36 ! it is still a momentum move, no interruption in counts.
    I don't know WHEN it will stop (I do expect tomorrow/Wednesday) – but when it WILL STOP and fall – it will be nothing short of spectacular.

    http://screencast.com/t/JKiLh6Uw

  • blahblah2

    So, you find you can get the exact entries the system wants you to get – you don't experience too much slippage from delay of the system notifying you? I guess when I hear scalping I think of a trade that's in the market for only a minute or 2 following a fast move.

  • Tronacate

    Whacky it is. All the good jobs are going bye bye unless you're a GS boy. Where is demand going to come from?
    I guess China's bond sale fell short of expectations……who's going to buy all this debt?
    I make a good living, but we've definitely cut way back and don't plan to ever return to the manic spending of a few years back.
    And I sure as hell am not taking out any loans. Even my kids are getting tight as tight can be……selling used video games…..not buying anything……can't remember the last time we walked into a mall.

  • annamall

    The time is near for that correction. But as I mentioned I am hedged with some longs IE SNP calls, CTIC long stock, and Kcalls.

    Sold my APA, CIT, POT, today and re-entered
    AAPL puts spread, EWZ puts, and SPY 94 short calls and for protection (which is always good) 96 long calls

  • standard_and_poor

    I continue to hold longs at 65%of portfolio. I won't add until a drop to 920-930
    occurrs. Newbys should use a trend indicator to decided whether to pursue
    longs or shorts and stick to that indicator – avoid wishful thinking or fundamentally
    based trading – both of which spell disaster for new traders.

    I'm in no hurry to add more longs nor should anyone thinking of initiating longs
    be in a rush at this point.

  • Autopsias

    I usually have plenty of time, I mean I do have an iphone for when I'm not in front of the computer… But if you have one, it's usually fine to get into the trade.

    And the trade usually takes much longer than 2 minutes, sometimes even half an hour or so. I very seldom get better entries than the system, what I'm very discipline with are the exits, I just put a limit order so greed doesn't take the better out of me.

  • Osso

    Last yr. TXN had $3.35 billion
    in sales and $588 million in net the stock was trading around $27. Now it is around $24 its sales have dropped by $1 billion! Net has dropped to $260 million; less than half of last year and yet people are buying the stock with a big p/e (which means growth) and the economic picture is mixed at best; nit the growth they were expereinceing this time last year so please tell me why anyone would pay $23 for this stock?!!

  • annamall

    Very nice David nighty night, BTW I have been trying to figure out how you can put bold text in your posts. Well I still can't figure it out.

    LOL

  • ropey

    because they're on crack – until the little computers in wall street deem a trend change, they will keep jacking up what appears to be ridiculous situations, HOG is another exactly that and the stock is up 4$ since reporting it's worst quarter in its history..

  • faafa

    The market is about to tank big time, probably Thu/Fri. Evidence? I'm about to capitulate and get out of my shorts Tue/Wed.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • JWBlack

    Nawwww. We won't see any correction exceeding 7% until September.

  • blues

    The problem I see here for bear case is (as I stated on other blog site) is that unless we gap open down below 87 on SPY, I don't see there's any bearish case for the massive (short squeeze or not) rally. This momentum is simply too great to put out by any regular pull backs. We've pretty much gone straight up and sure many bears were either trapped or capitulated. On any pull back, I would think bulltards who missed this would want to get back in and any bears that got trapped probably want to cover and get out and cut loss. So any pull back to between 87 and today would probably be another higher low. So unless we gap down and directly go below 87, I don't see we will break this upward momentum… any thoughts?

  • Osso

    For my friend SpringHeel Jack: SPX
    EMA 13 weekly : 908.17
    EMA 34 weekly : 918.90
    how are we going to end by fridays close..????

  • AudioTactics

    I'm still short and increased position on the close.

    This is rough sailing though fo sho…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    mole thanks for the bear emoto-meter, it is right on.
    for a little info on leveraged bear vs. bulls check out the latest post on the technical take (no affiliation)
    http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/
    volume also up today on my favorite semi's short (SSG) on this red day

  • annamall

    I was just saying earlier that TXN earnings are DOWN 95% from last year OMG the stock should trade around 10$ if that. :-)

  • funkypenguin

    This is the same type of stuff that happened in Nov and Mar except on the bullish side. Look at Nov especially and you can see some ridiculous prices – GS was at ~$50. My favorite was the gold miners – GDX was down to ~$15 – all out of proportion to Gold prices – that was an easy, easy trade that I missed.

    Basically this seems to be the gyrations of a nasty bear market. Right now we have bullish extremism – bunch of bulltards who are afraid of missing the boat and will buy anything.

    Fundamentals simply don't work right now

  • Osso

    yes. If you want to feel better, re GDX….go look wht happened with CAR….

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    like our martian friend says you could be a maverick and sign up anyway. Just don't bug mole with newby questions.

  • molecool

    :-)

  • molecool

    $50k is more than enough – especially if you use Mirus or Infinity as a broker.

  • molecool

    “looks like the Bears are hating life once again”

    snort – that's funny – hehehehehe :-)

  • molecool

    Yeah, we don't count manic depressives – sorry.

  • annamall

    I think you are right, that is why I am very short term bearish like this week. if it's tomorrow which I would like as my timing would be good, then I will watch for my retracement levels and then go long.

    So nothing like a huge retracement I would be happy with 20 SPX points down :-)

  • molecool

    BFD – I alert the media….

  • annamall

    He was so upset earlier, I told him not to be…. that is what I was referring to.

  • OldManRiver

    “I'll take 'Government' Alex.”

    “The amount spent since 2007 on the financial rescue.”

    “How much is $23.7 Trillion?”

    Now that's jeopardy.

    http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/watchdog-tr

  • springheel_jack

    When we first reached this level in June, I was putting the case that this area right here was likely to be the top for the rally.

    I was saying that because the 200 day EMA was the obvious failure point for the rally, and because if we go much higher than this we will get a dow theory buy signal, which will write off the bear case IMO for a few weeks at least. We are very close to that signal. If we close over 960 we'll probably get it.

    There's been quite a lot of water under the bridge since then, but I still think that this is likely to be the top of the rally, if it is just a rally. There is a lot of bull sentiment out there, but scroll back ten days and there was a huge push from the bears. We could finish wave 5 down for USD in a couple of weeks and if we just chop around here until then, then down we go. A correction for a week then a repeat failure at this level could give us that.

    From a technical point of view, if we do close above 960 we are probably in a cyclical bull market. That doesn't mean a lot, these can last less than six months historically and it is difficult to envisage it rising more than 25% higher from here, given the weak economy and earnings.

    What we do know though is that there is a lot of dead space above 960. If we rise above it we should be very careful shorting this IMO until this wave has had a decent chance to blow out, at which point we could be nearing 1200 for an amazing blowoff top.

    On that analysis if wave 5 USD down took another two months to plat out & the S&P reached 1150, we would have an amazing shorting setup that will have been well worth the wait.

    I still think that there is a very good chance though that we will chop around here for two or three weeks and then drop like a stone after that.

  • Coldwarvet

    This week is likely going to be decisive. If we close here, or higher, it is going to be hard to maintain a bearish perspective, since that will be a close above the 50 week SMA for .spx. I added Dec. puts today, which should indicate the direction, if not the timing, I have for the next move.

    DJI is now forming a megaphone, btw…

  • springheel_jack

    I agree. If we can maintain this level for long, then the bear case is a write-off for at least another 100 points on the SPX IMO, maybe 200.

    We could cover that territory pretty fast though, and even at the current level valuations look steep relative to earnings.

    All that will have happened is that a vast flood of government money will have rented a bit more time in the bubble. Returns are diminishing fast though. I can't see this lasting long. I have Dec puts too.

  • molecool

    “If we rise above it we should be very careful shorting this IMO until this wave has had a decent chance to blow out, at which point we could be nearing 1200 for an amazing blowoff top.”

    I would actually agree with that – we have been hacking our way through a pretty thick resistance area and there's not much overhead resistance once we breach 960.

  • rhae

    I usually do not put up old charts… This from last Sat. Few probably hang around on the week-end to watch charts… shoot that's party time. So I will put it up again because today it entered my zone in both price and time. You may have noticed the arc at the bottom, sometimes I toss in the fixed 9, because Martin Armstrong used 8.* and 9 is as close as I can get. http://www.screencast.com/t/Kt9FZguDFT

  • eunsuh

    the market action is so contrived I don't see how anyone can determine a top or bottom. The ABC retrace (down) that recently occurred was obviously contrived for the MMs to gain better market positions. It seems these MMs make more money on the gyrations than anything else. Much more volatility and volume accompany the gyration vs. a straight up launch. In any case, looking at the charts in hindsight it is apparent these MMs knew the market would turn up well in advance of the bottom. Just take a look at the large volume spikes which added to the bear sentiment during the retrace, when in actuality these were buyers knowing damn well the market was going to rocket in a week or so.

    The manipulation and insider trading is so apparent. And the rich keep getting richer. And the game continues because no one can do a darn thing about it, and because traders accept it regardless of the blatant corruption and fraud.

    Many many traders spend most of the day and evening on chart analysis and the like only to be befuddled by an unexplained reaction by the market.

    I can just imagine the billions of hours (wasted IMO) of productivity loss resulting from attempting to analyze and trade a fixed game. But then again, it seems to fit the american definition of productivity quite well.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    JW, you have seem to be on top of things lately. What's your thinking 3-9 months out?

  • comfortablynumb

    Mole; How do i get more info wrt Geronimo?? can't seem to find any info on the site or an info e-mail request. Cheers

  • Squidman

    dvol/uvol actually gave the scalp point very nicely today. There really was only one.

  • bist

    While it was a brutal day for da bearz it wasn't a cakewalk for the bulls either. I've gotten use to bulls breaking through key resistance levels by 5-10 spx points. Today the bulls seemed to putter up to 951ish not quite making 952. The overboughtness seems to be weighing them down.

    I'd be all ready for a correction in the next few days, but one foil in the way- totally unrelated to technicals, is that Wells Fargo reports on Wednesday. And I've learned the hard way to respect days when Wells Fargo reports as they're often 200-300pt explosions that blind side bears out of nowhere.

    Last July the markets were sinking and wfc closed around 20. Then they reported earnings the next day, opened at 23, and closed around 28. And in the next few days closed above 30. Earlier this year in april it seemed like the bear market rally was coming to an end. But then m2m was altered, wfc comes out early reporting their bs earnings numbers and the banking index had their largest one day gain in history.

    So bears be warned when wfc reports on Wednesday.

  • powerpak59

    What thee hell is that chart….

  • rhae

    $VIX daily, set up alert…. every night I run my scan looking for interesting set-ups.
    $VIX does not set up often. So when it does I pay attention. Could be another Duck lining up.
    Corralates to my my time/ price chart
    http://screencast.com/t/SP0GSYCqQmX

    PS… a whole bunch of short set-ups, too
    $VIX is counter trend which carries a higher risk

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    for arc challenged like myself – would you, please, provide brief explanation? :)

  • powerpak59

    Woah, the “Treasury 'failed' to adopt bailout safeguards”? That's like saying the a-bomb scientists realized they forgot to install “explosion” safeguards just after Doolittle left the airport. Superfluous ignorance

  • toad37

    Sooo…. Buy stops to go long on some ES @ 960?

  • rhae

    fib relationship… just a different veiw… where the cross they re enforce each other..
    TA knows no bounds, lol

  • rhae

    I like to be different, not really, just a different look a the fibs… you can google or bing arcs if you want… I have a habit of looking for as many matching points as I can find and will admit some are a bit unusual

  • Keirsten

    Hello Rats! I was trying to find out what time the eclipse takes place tomorrow and stumbled on this little blurb in a general horoscope.

    “If you are beginning to tune into strange forces difficult to comprehend and deal with, you are probably sensing the approach of the Total Solar Eclipse that will occur Tuesday at 7:36PM PDT”

    Yes, I am struggling with a strange force- it's called GS. I surrender.

    It then goes on to say:

    “Renew your focus on understanding the arcane realm of buying and selling stocks, bonds, commodities and precious metals as the Moon makes its monthly union with Vesta”

    Like we don't already do that 20/7? Need a little sleep once in awhile though.

    Finally it said:

    “This lunar conjunction doubles as an aspect that reminds you to protect your material assets and valuables.”

    Yes- good idea! I'm going to keep my money away from specialists and market makers! (and CC Rider too! :-) )

    Forgot this part too:

    “Cook and bake to your heart's content”

    I'm thinking magic brownies.. what say you Rats?

  • rhae

    Looks like the Bulls are having a Grand Time in the Pool… Ok everybody, Out of the Pool !
    http://screencast.com/t/Ht7NbLRt

  • Osso

    USPS May Be Unable to Make Payroll in October and Retiree Health Plan Costs, Unions' Letter to White House Says
    July 19, 2009
    USPS: US Postal Service

  • Fujisan

    That looks exactly like the swimming pool that I went last summer in Japan…… How did you figure this out?

  • TurkeyBone

    In addition: Asto traders

    “The last 200 years, whenever Saturn has gone into Virgo there has been either a world war or a mini world war,”

    Let the freak show begin.

    Bull 911 Alert! (because that's where we are going)

    SPX Up VIX UP = A trip for the Bulls to the woodshed to meet Mr. Ugly stick

    How am I going to work on my tan with this eclipse?

  • Fujisan

    Love your post, Keirsten! Can I try your magic brownies, too?

  • Squidman

    I have some magic dust if you'd like lovely.

  • Fujisan

    VIX had a rare “inside day”….

  • MikeT
  • Keirsten

    Absolutely, but after we sample the first 5 or 6, that will probably be our last batch. 😀 Hugs Miss Fujisan.

  • Keirsten

    Thank you Squiddy. LOL

  • Keirsten

    ROFLLLLLLLLLLLLLL. You are too funny TB! If your tan fades, you can always visit the Fake 'N Bake, you little tanorexic, you.

  • JWBlack

    3 months from now is October. The market will probably be in bear mode, but another big rally is likely by November.

    9 months from now will be April 2010. Right now I don't know what the market will do at that time. I suspect that the secular bear market will continue, but that doesn't necessarily mean a break of 666 on the SPX, although it is possible. A secular bear market can continue with the market just trading in a large range for a while until fundamentals catch up.

  • Ghostdog

    We should have our answer on tuesday as I said midweek last week. It is still going to be tough to bury this thing, with all the money piling in. Remember this is the livelyhood of the fund managers… and it got wrecked last year and they dont want to miss a chance to get it back quick… otherwise their people are going somewhere else. So, not unlike our government, they have one shot at it and they are going to take it on every dip now until it kills them.. which it ultimately will. In short, I would be very suprised if we get any major pullback… Most bulls are going to buy any pullback and most bears are going try to squeek their way out of the mess they got into, which means, everyone is a buyer in one form or another.

    So… Let's get a little oxygen for my bearish brethren but then, let's enjoy the ride up, enjoy the view and when we get to the top and see that party that's going on in that crowded room, look on over to the door, I'll be the one with the black hat and colt, sayin. “I'd like to welcome y'all to Dodge, I'd like to thank ya for comin, now if you don't mind, can ya reach for some sky while my team here, empties your pockets… Thank y'all for comin, hope ya had as good time, I know I did.

    Gnight

  • powerpak59

    Hey if it works for you then that's ok. I just thought it might be some
    kind of map to the West Indies or Isotope decay ratios. I'm in a goofy ass
    mood tonight..Good luck

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this week:
    restaurants = short
    retail = short (GYMB = sweet)
    semis = short (INTC, NTAP, SNDK)
    shippers ~ short
    Transports = lagging and IYT does NOT truly reflect performance of components
    Financials = SHORT (GS, STT, MA, V, HBC, PRU)

    FCX, GG, CAT – short
    VIX = long and on tl?

    People who watch CNBC say Cramer says: “Yeah, wear the blinders and buy-buy-buy – just like back in Oct 2007 – you'll be glad you did”

    —- how the hell can I be long???

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah, we all changed with time, I have difficult time locating my and your family in that pool – this is what time do to people :(

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    so, now “forever stamp” will cost $2?

  • Nate

    Man, that is exactly what I was thinking of when I saw that article tonight . . . was the October 2007 famous clips. Priceless!

  • lester

    Food for thought: market will rip higher through rest of 2009 because Obama will not succeed in getting health care reformed and cap and trade will not pass. Both of those plans are bad for capitalism (unless you make solar panels or ethanol) so the market will rise with those huge drags cut lose. Believe it or not, we will accelerate higher. Not that we wan't ever pull back, but I am buying every pullback.

  • Fujisan

    Wow, Lester is showing up AH.

  • Keirsten

    Second time in as many weeks too- I just can't remember what happened the next day….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Crazy lol

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    AT least I know when 100 year long bear market will start – the moment ordinary Americans will start living better (not for borrowed money they expected to spend right away) and real wages REALLY start to go up.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    October 19 1987?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This time next year, Obama will have very low ratings.

  • Fujisan

    Nice!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no wonder my dollar chart points to move up tomorrow

    10:00am USD

    Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

    “Monetary Policy Statement”

  • molecool

    Bulls are getting complacent again – I like it :-)

  • molecool

    Bulls are getting complacent again – I like it :-)

  • Scrillhog

    I was perusing the Fed website, and thought I'd check and see all the dates old boy Benny (Curly) has given testimony or speeches, then compare that with a daily chart on the SPX. You know what I found? Out of the 15 times been has either given a speech or testified, 10 have been either a down day or doji. I'm going to guess that we have a 66.6% chance of ending in the red tomorrow. Here's a chart if interested… Each “Ben day” has a cute pink bubble at the top of the candle: http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/2160/curlya.jpg

    On the SPX weekly, there's no pretty head and shoulders, and even if we're up against earnings, manipulation, and Goldman Sachs feeding frenzies there's still some nice resistance up here at the 950-955 level:
    http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/9481/spxweek

    And lastly, we have the Treasuries perched right on that old trendline:
    http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/9783/tnxi.jpg

    Well okay, one more… We have the Transports perched right at a trendline as well:
    http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/9340/transyj

    My take? I have a lot of conflicting indicators, so I'm hedged in my equities account and ready for whatever the morning might bring. I think we will see a red close tomorrow, now if that is a minor pullback just to launch right over that 955 mark on the way to 1000 we shall see…

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Somewhat along those lines –

    It seems as though people are forgetting the function regular (non Michael Milken types) Bears play in terms of price discovery and dip buying on covers. If this keeps up to the point where too many are afraid to go short the drop will be so much more brutal. Especially since I'm sure many are, like me, willing to go long and paint the roses red but who will pile into inverse ETFs and other instruments of the devil as soon as we smell real blood in the water.

    I've also been thinking about the nature of bubbles in the final leg up. Usually they're the most euphoric. There's a certain frantic motion that everyone gets caught up in and stops thinking rationally because there's no time to think rationally. That what my gut is telling me. Whether we're in the beginning or end of that epoch is the tricky question.

  • unibummer

    His ratings are already tanking. There's trouble brewing in the hinterlands. Not that I agree or disagree, just sayin'. He better hope those employment numbers feel the effects of these purported greenshoots, and not just half-assed low wage fill gaps. Otherwise, all bets are off come this winter. Hungry, cold people with nowhere else to turn can make a frightening demographic. Especially when they see the preferred class still slopping at the trough. I'm short and keeping my eyes open for escape routes to South America :-)

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Very good advice – unless one picks the wrong indicator that is :-)

    Any recommendations? I go with stochastics a lot, but watched in horror as the daily and weekly plots did a 300 degree turnaround about 4 days ago just when I went short. They worked great in that rangebound chop before…

  • springheel_jack

    Bubbles can't expand for ever though. In the absence of real recovery this will have to fall sooner or later.

  • springheel_jack

    The best thing that the bears could wish for really is a clear and high top to short. I think we might just get it.

  • springheel_jack

    Once 960 breaks with confidence, definitely.

  • annamall

    morning, You got to love Jon Stewart, he tells it like it is and he is very funny. Great video.

    Looks like the bulls are on the run again this morning! Jeeezzz

  • bee01

    The results this quarter are incredible – I think this will encourage more businesses to lay off most of their workers.

  • annamall

    yes, that is why all these companies are beating because they are cutting costs/employee's (can you say higher unemployment) to the bone.

    THATS' NOT GROWTH , if I am not spending money on Chanel, Gucci, whole foods, but shopping @ walmart, eating at mcdonalds. I am just spending less so my bottom looks better.

  • bee01

    I don't think eating at McDonald's makes *anybody's* bottom look better.

  • annamall

    Hehehehe I meant to say my bottom line…:-)

  • Ghostdog

    I hope and agree that the drop will be more brutal. That's the whole reason to get into this game. Remember that, Mania's / Euphoria's always end right where they began. I used to be a day trader and tended to be a victum of my emotions too many times. Now Im a macro trader (though will play the day game from time to time) and patience is the key which believe me is a lot harder than most people think. It's kind of like being the only person not drinking at a big rockin party. It's pretty boring most of the time but when it gets late you are the only one capable of scoring the prettiest gal in the room.

  • lester

    This re-inforces my point. These programs will not go thru due to falling ratings and near revolt among the moderates in Congress. Failure of these programs will allow the market to go higher. I think the increase will accellerate due to removal of uncertainty.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    I generally swing in and out over a several day position, so I'm hearing you. 75% of the losses I've ever had have been the result of chickening out and either bailing too soon or premature hedging. Takes some backbone, it does – good for you if you make it work.

    I'm more resigned to it than hoping for it. In the extremely unlikely event that this is all a masterfully orchestrated event to buy time for fundamental reforms that result in profits, wages, and employment again becoming the kinds of productive activities they used to be and not a bunch of Enron-style shell games – I'll be ecstatic. Hell, I'd give up trading altogether if the labor market and current HR practices weren't so effed up and focused on meeting requirements to the letter with no extra judgment applied.

    In the more likely world, something like http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-goldma… will take place. Lots of decent people are probably going to get fleeced. And if something like this is true, its architects surely understand that the herd will pile on the short side and undoubtedly have a plan to position themselves for that.

    The worst part about all this short-sightedness and avarice of it all is that you are compelled to either join it or get steamrolled by it. So my “thesis” is to look for the gaming and get a piece of it. And maybe survive long enough to be able to help change the game.

    On a related note, I try to be gone well before the 3:30 am witching hour where the remaining men direct their frustrated ambitions towards an ever-shrinking pool of women (most of whom had the sense to pick their next activity right around when stupid shit starts happening). It really gets ugly and desperate around then. And there's always that one tool trying to apply those “alpha male/NLP” gimmicks that he read in some book…

  • Osso

    Transports Lagging…..not in line with Dow…yet

  • standard_and_poor

    Oscillators aren't good trend following tools. Test some moving averages. See which work best for you, then only place trades in direction of theat trend.

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  • standard_and_poor

    I don't use them but they're a decent tool for beginning traders.

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  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    BOK BOK BOK B'GOK!?!?!?! BOK B'GOK!??!?! BOK BOK BOK BOK!!?!?!?

    http://tinyurl.com/m3qxz7

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    BOK BOK BOK B'GOK!?!?!?! BOK B'GOK!??!?! BOK BOK BOK BOK!!?!?!?

    http://tinyurl.com/m3qxz7

  • Ghostdog

    Well said Captian :)

    Though I am from the camp that believes this is a maybe a not so well ochestrated event to buy time. I mean these guys never saw deflation as a possibility, hell most money managers werent born the last time we had a dose of it. And while they could have done the right thing which was to dismantle this thing by raising rates when Crude was peaking they didnt because they felt crude falling of would temper inflation… well.. they were right… Ever try to cure a diseased forrest? Try going acre by acre and trying to remove the diseased trees to stimulate those “green shoots”… it doesnt work in the long term because that disease is rampant at places you cant even imagine and the forest is ultimately doomed. You want to get those “green shoots”… burn it to the ground and you will see them in about 2 weeks and thats a fact. I digress, So once all that ended they had nothing left except to spend spend spend to try to re-ignite this thing.. It really is the only hope they have because they waited too long to give any reasonable idea a chance. I personally dont think it will work but we'll see.

    On a possible recovery side…This is very similar to japan with one exception we are not japan. japan thought that once things settled down that business would go back to taking on debt. They didnt and thats why it didnt work. Americans are more aggressive than Japan so the question comes that once this is over after everyone got their brains beat in, will corporations seek out debt to grow their businesses. If they do, it will recover faster, if they dont we will be like Japan. I tend to think that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. But again, if they can fake Americans into thinking things are ok, and start them spending again, they may just pull it off.. until the next bubble…

  • blahblah2

    Is it rare, though, to have to take an entry that is worse than what the system says to take?

  • Autopsias

    Squid, you little formula has been saving my ass the past few days!

    Thank you! I really mean it! It's a great chart on my trading days now!

  • Autopsias

    I usually don't take a worse entry… If I'm late I'm late… Taking a worse entry only increases the risk of loss if the trade goes against you.

    Usually you can wait until the tape comes your way to entry…

  • Squidman

    Glad to hear it! Remember, it's most useful for trending days, but, the thing is steepening slopes usually lead and the futes catch up.

  • standard_and_poor

    Yes, almost forgot, of the oscillators the chicken oscillator is the tastiest.

     

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  • standard_and_poor

    Yes, almost forgot, of the oscillators the chicken oscillator is the tastiest.

     

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