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Bear Markets Are Hard
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Bear Markets Are Hard

by The MoleJanuary 28, 2016

Bear markets in particular have a way of wearing on you. Sure they look great in hindsight, leaving little doubt about how you one could have easily banked millions. And quite frankly there is actually some truth in that (we’ll cover that later), but in reality most traders usually get chopped to pieces trying to time the endless preceding gyrations, only then to watch the tape run away without them.

2016-01-28_spoos_LT

In my time running this blog I have gradually shifted away from posting long winded tutorials as people’s attention span seems to be inversely correlated with the amount of information they are being exposed to. So today let’s look at two very simple ways to assess a market’s noise factor. Because noise and lack of technical context are inherently the type of conditions you should expect in the early phases of a large market correction. Even more importantly the amount of noise present may actually be a key characteristic that differentiates the early stages of a long term bear market from a mere medium term correction as part of a bull market.

In bull markets corrections usually happen within a set of predictable parameters. There are support levels that are usually being observed – moves to the downside happen quickly and permit bullish participants to pick up long positions for a significant discount. Buyers move in quickly and reassert themselves which produces quick reversal spikes which discourage the bears and in particular put holders as vega gets crushed quickly.

2016-01-28_VIX

Here’s a weekly chart of the VIX which is telling a compelling tale about the perception of implied volatility among market participants. It is important to differentiate between realized volatility (i.e. volatility that has happened) and implied volatility (IV) which is the anticipation of future volatility. Clearly if we just scraped 53, like in last August, then odds have it that future volatility will be a bit lower as markets never move in a straight line.

In any case, observe how volatility exploded in regular intervals and then slowly dissipated in the ensuing months. Also note that, starting in about 2013 we are literally able to watch the bears throw in the towel and give up for good. Why? Because IV spikes are curtailed to below the 23 mark, at the very peak we are below 18 in July of 2014.

And then in late 2014 something changes. Watch how volatility is becoming, well – more volatile and less obligatory again. We are no longer observing the casual ebb and flow of an unrelenting advance. Now the spikes appear to be less nochalant, in particular after the August 2015 correction. Most of 2015 had been a sideways chop from hell but IV had managed to once more descend to the 11 mark. Which was quickly followed by the biggest spike since 2009 which touched the 53 mark.

Since then we are observing a rising lower threshold and that is exactly what we should be keeping an eye on. Forget about the big spikes up – they disconcerting of course. But what really makes all the difference is the floor – if it is rising then that tells you about the most optimistic attitude of the average market participant.

More observations regarding volatility cycles below the fold:

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I am going to grab some belated lunch and then hunt for a few more setups. If I do find anything delectable I’ll tack it on below.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    rising lows. Genius.

  • nyse

    Your point regarding the yellow arrows is that neither the weekly nor the monthly touched the lower most relevant BB, thus providing the lack of technical context you mentioned, correct?

  • bluprint

    “that tells you about the most optimistic attitude of the average market participant.”

    Insightful comment, mole. thats a great way to look at it. thanks.

  • Ronebadger

    OH Baby…look at that 15min candle
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/430200801;

  • Ronebadger

    Volatility is…well, uh…volatile

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Great post Mole. I remember back in 2007, the bottom on $VIX was basically rising all year as the market topped out. The exact details are different, of course, but there are some striking similarities there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I remember the VIX in late 2006. what a sleeper, thought maybe even go to zero.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=W&st=2004-01-01&en=2008-01-01&id=p26713875371

  • Mark Shinnick

    After achieving 8 handle TVIX, I’ve been a vol buyer.

  • tradingmom

    spx gap fill

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure I understand what you mean – please elaborate. On the VIX?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The quiet before the storm.

  • Time Bandit

    I agree trading Bear Markets is hard. I also believe Bear Markets are even harder on Perma Bears because by the time a Bear Market is in place, Perma Bears are so beaten down and sore from fighting the Bulls that they hardly have any strength left to accomplish anything in the type of market that they thought they wanted. I used to be that guy. :)

    A few years ago when I used to watch CNBC, there was a guy on there (can’t remember his name) that I used to like because he was a Perma Bear. After he had a nervous breakdown he came back on air for a short while and said something that I actually typed out in big letters, printed it and have it taped to the top of my desk. He said “TRADE THE MARKET YOU HAVE NOT THE MARKET YOU WANT”.

    So at any given time the market is what it is and I’ll just keep trying to find a little MOMO here and there. Speaking of which after waiting patiently on the GBP/JPY, I should have waited one more day because I got stopped out for a 1R Loss overnight. (Couda, shoulda, woulda) But no big deal. If it closes above 170.53 today, I’ll flip to a long. The Gain on my short NDX is still there for now and I’m still sitting on a little over 2R on Short Basic Materials. My Long Crude position is doing pretty good and is up over 1R. BTW, Open gains are nice but don’t hit the bank until they are closed. So we’ll see what happens from here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See how the base rose in 2007?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Believe me – I do not WANT a large scale bear market. But clearly evidence is accruing slowly but steadily….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Chop chop chop till you drop.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    it’s just don’t matter. until it does.

    it’s a 40pt swing, I’m sure a lot of guys here can make it.
    not me.

  • ridingwaves

    this could get ugly if a push north doesn’t come now…selling has been non stop…

  • Time Bandit

    I think the majority of experts in 2007 were still saying that there was no end in sight for the real estate boom and that included Ben Bernanke.

  • Ronebadger

    “I want to believe” – Fox Mulder

  • ridingwaves

    it was contained to subprime, don’t worry……Bernanke, what a tool…

  • nyse

    You mention that in these markets, there is a consistent lack of technical context. In your ES graphs, you show a yellow arrow on the weekly where it didn’t touch/breach the lower 100 period (purple) BB at 1788, and on the monthly, another yellow arrow where the candle didn’t breach the 25 period (red) BB at 1754. I was just asking if those yellow arrows are in reference to the “lack of technical context” (meaning if they had breached it would have provided more context?). TIA

  • BKXtoZERO

    I always thought I did (want a bear mkt) and thought I was good at trading them. Now, beyond the move from the top I see how hard they really are to stay whole. Patience is needed. So far I have done well to hold gains and not do anything bad just to do something.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like 10.1 TVIX is the important resistance. I’m trading this range in the meantime, still hoping for 7 handles but time for that may be running out.

  • ridingwaves

    1880-2010 spx range bound until it isnt…
    I have XIV going to 14 now…yikes..

  • Time Bandit

    BB should have remained as a waiter in the restuarants he worked at in South Carolina’s “Pedro” I95 Exit.

    I know this has been discussed ad-nausiem but how in the hell could people like BB and all the Banker CEO’s not realize that you can not loan money to people who have no chance in hell of ever paying it back? Also how could they not know that residential homes would eventually become so expensive that no amount of creative financing could work and the whole “house” of cards would come tumbling down?

    These people were supposed to be smart. Unfortunately they were “smart” just like the character “Fredo Corleone”.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, seems likely.

  • ridingwaves

    they knew and bet against it….while at the same time knowing with Paulsen in treasury position that they would be able to scare the congress critters into rescuing the banks…..it was a perfectly executed transfer of wealth that rewarded the speculators.. I guess its legal in Corpocracy we live in now…

  • mugabe

    that chart says it all shortish term

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, anticipates the broad indexes quite well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did you catch the new episode?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    thanks.

    have another chart. (hourly)
    on the House.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I thought I was good, but then I realized my lizard brain was looking at the overall trend historically. Go back and take a good, HARD, look at those drops. Bouncy as a mountain range. hard as hell. historically.

    What I learned personally is, when to stay away, and go find something that rewards. Boring bonds, or (ugh) Cash, if need be.

  • ridingwaves

    leech’s have houses or hosts?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • OzarkHillBilly

    At the time, you could pretty much open a cash account at our office if you could fog a mirror. But every now and then someone’s credit would be so bad that we simply wouldn’t take their money. I recall more than one of those people saying, with righteous indignation, “But my credit was good enough to get a home loan.”

  • Ronebadger

    OH yeah, I’m an X-Files addict…the first two episodes took me right back to all the old ones.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I saw the second one. I laughed a lot, but I’m not sure if that’s what the writers intended.

  • Darkthirty

    Disturbance in the force………….

  • BKXtoZERO

    me too. I found other things and learned some patience which is why I am still here.

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    +1 on the post!

    I think the evidence is (somewhat sadly) super compelling that a challenging BEAR is here! Just look at the e-Rut – trading down to levels from July 2013, while the SPX is just playing with October 2014 levels.

    Your educational posts will be invaluable going forwards,

    Thanks,

    -D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Sith Happens,
    then you Die.

  • Darkthirty

    Something’s fixing to pop, can’t find it………

  • BKXtoZERO

    day scalp on DUST 14.10, tight stop

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I think vol teaches us something important about trusting that things cycle in, and then back out for at least a while again. Everything in nature just has to take a pause to refresh.

  • Time Bandit

    I lived in Florida during most of the Boom and in 2007 this guy I knew bought a $500,000 “McMansion” with no money down, no documentation and no nothing. I think he was making around $40K per year. He was hoping to be able to hold on to it long enough to flip and make money on it. Unfortunately for him, the music stopped playing and that home along with thousands of overpriced flipped and re-flipped homes in Florida ended up being underwater and returned to the banks.

  • Round we go
  • mugabe

    the huge problem in spain is that returning the house doesn’t discharge your obligation to pay off the balance of the mortgage

  • Time Bandit

    Wow!

  • ridingwaves

    that’s why buying here is like a put option….you only lose your down payment if you default…Non recourse…if you put 16K down on a 300K home in 2010, you could have made 300K off 16k down payment minus taxes, mos. mortgage etc…

  • mugabe

    the problem, I understand, in the US is your credit rating

  • ridingwaves

    you can get a FHA loan with 580 fico and 3.5% down….it would take about 2 years after bk and building back credit profile to jump into that slot again…the problem is high prices here, way out of whack vs. median income….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, I would prefer a few more years of bubbly bullishness but I fear the bear is upon us.

  • mugabe

    cyclical or secular?

  • Time Bandit

    I’m old enough to remember people having Mortgage Burning Parties. After paying off and owning their home free and clear, people would celebrate the fact that they owned their home free and clear. I understand that people move around more now but the inflation especially in home prices has made this event impossible for most. When I bought my first home, the “rule of thumb” was one weeks pay = to the Mortgage payment. I think it’s much more than that now. Ultra Low interest rates have not helped with the purchase of new homes. Ultra Low Interest Rates have actually helped the banks because of the volume of thousands of dollars necessary to buy a home. The Banks recieve a lower rate on a much larger amount that will never be paid off. They and especially the Fed are not doing us any favors.

  • Time Bandit

    Hey Mole, I think it’s time to bring back the Monks on the Rollercoaster. :)

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Lots of these new houses are pretty shoddy, as well. Another customer of mine was a custom home builder that had to quit building houses back in the boom; he wouldn’t lower his standards in order to compete. However, after the bust, he reinvented his business and marketed himself as the guy to come fix your McMansion once it started falling apart two years after it was built. He said that he would never run out of work to do.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t know yet. Chris Carolan keeps talking about the prospect of a secular bear market. We shall see…. however at minimum I don’t think this one will be only a monthly affair. There is an argument to be made about this one having started in 2015.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Premature – you haven’t even seen real swings yet 😉

  • Time Bandit

    OK. I’ll look forward to it. That one has always been one of my favorites. :)

  • Darkthirty

    1-2 / i-ii or A/a-b

  • ridingwaves

    coiling up but which way..down has been trend

  • Darkthirty

    Texas mud…..

  • Darkthirty

    The big picture says…..whatever TPTB decide

  • BKXtoZERO

    stopped out on DUST .5R loss. No shake out to be seen.

  • mugabe

    FWIW, Josh Brown (tentatively) thinks the secular bear ended when we took out the 2007 highs

  • Darkthirty

    Down target 15600 DJIA

  • kim

    i don’t think bearish is fully confirmed yet, we can still go to or over the current top from here.I’m positioned for short mode but with hedge entry waiting a bit higher. Trying NOT to-do too many stupid moves while watching the tape :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, signs of supportive gold range here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    re-entered 13.87, probably top ticked myself. Tight stop again. should have had wider stop

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I can see why it was attractive (1st hour).

    I stopped chasing “the first candles”, after a while.
    started looking for secondary bottoms before conviction that a reverse was in process.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, is there any reason for the beige line at -1 in zero_lite? I dont think Ive seen it before.

  • Billabong

    “My Long Crude position is doing pretty good and is up over 1R” … Tip of the hat to you on that move. Last time we had a CL move this large from a new low was in Aug from $37 to $48 … I would like to see you get at least the same amount and anyone else exposed long here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I drew it there.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks. Its green now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Trying to grab a ST long near 1883.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wonder how that happened…

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks Billabong. This move has been kind of crazy and pretty unstable. The Contract Volume has been through the roof. So far today, we’re currently over 732,000 Contracts and climbing. . .

  • Mark Shinnick

    Indeed… “Huge numbers of amateurs are now trying to strike it rich on global markets, with the overall retail trading market worth up to $3 trillion in the United States alone”.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have tried scalping long until I was blue in the face. Someone will get it. Hopefully you.

  • Darkthirty

    BATS crashed at noon…….

  • ridingwaves

    feels like bulls are throwing everything at this before huge move down

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    how convenient

    https://www.batstrading.com/
    3rd largest? no problem, we don’t need no stinkin BATS.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’ve distracted myself today by watching YouTube clips of Clint Eastwood Westerns. Alternatively though, I have kept an eye on $HGX, as it has been a good leading indicator of market weakness, at least for me, since last summer. I’m not trading off of it per se, but if it can’t hold support, then I’ll be even more leery of catching a bounce on anything here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    changing to trailing stop now on DUST. Old BK was too much for those nugget eating shizzle stick gold bugs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    day trade?, or you have some decision process for overnight..

  • BKXtoZERO

    if nasty reversal, then hold.

  • BKXtoZERO

    scalping long TVIX 9.36, also hold if reversal today, stop 1905sp

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    good. as long as it’s quantifiable.
    this stuff cuts both ways.
    play with a snake, you can get bit.
    no more whining!
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t whine. I just shared my loss to be fair. No whining anywhere here.

  • tradingmom

    Trying a long here where Mole’s red line intersects w/ vwap.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh has been a very ugly grind back up from the gap fill.

  • ridingwaves

    hey folks, I might have a quick runner in bio world…
    PIRS is getting bought heavy, I got in at 1.70, S 1.50

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehehe :-)

  • Darkthirty

    Definitely propping it up…..if they lose their grip…………

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flat since earlier today, waiting again for 8, maybe even some 7’s.

  • BKXtoZERO

    hoping but may not happen. Looks like little bear flag in SP today

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…even a pennant in TVIX

  • BKXtoZERO

    Where is Scott? I miss getting yelled at on a daily basis. Now I am down to just my wife yelling at me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its conveniently why men develop hearing loss at higher frequencies.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Is it related to that new virus they keep talking about on the news?

  • Ronebadger

    5min chart – Bear flag with imbedded wedge, multiple 50/200MA crossovers and H&S? … no wonder we’ve been going nowhere for 7 days
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/428507314;

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s focusing on his own trading right now.

  • ridingwaves

    could be, alert on volume filter woke me up….could be just big institution buying up shares, shorts are not heavy here..I think it’s halted here…might take a couple days to work itself out…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I miss him. He was extremely helpful. I miss reading his posts every night.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Officially all I could find was a news story today about their CEO presenting next month at a conference. I did find a rumor re: CERS today, another biotech with a nice pop, which links it to a possible fix with that virus. I usually avoid these like the plague, ha, if only because it takes me out of my element.

  • Darkthirty

    breaks the channel here, could be a waterfall

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nothing lasts forever – even this place one day will be gone.

  • Time Bandit

    I communicated with him a few days ago and he’s doing great. He has a lot of things going on and as Mole said his main focus right now is his own trading. He was an imense help to me too. So much so that if I try to revert back to my old ways a voice with an Aussie accent appears in my head. :)

  • Darkthirty

    It’s dead

  • BKXtoZERO

    sad but if so you left the world a better place than you found it, and made a change for lots of people.

  • Time Bandit

    I hope that’s a long, long, way off. There is not a Better and more Honest Trading Website in the World than Evil Speculator and I’ve seen a lot of them over the years.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Looks like I will be leaving DUST on, probably TVIX too, small on TVIX

  • ridingwaves

    they are tricky and fickle….they have a lot of solid collaborations with big pharma …Novo Nordisk is in with 2 million shares per filing today….
    float is only 17 million….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, small tvix only.

  • SpeedSkt1

    Mole,

    Do you have a link on the site that talks about the SPX trend day indicator you have mentioned? I recall it involved monitoring for first 45 min of cash open…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Subs get the alerts every morning. Not much else to it really.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can’t really wish for anything more.

  • Time Bandit

    Excellent! Like I’ve said before, posting losers are just as important as posting winners because it can be cleansing as well as adding to a person’s credibility.

    When I see someone posting nothing but winners or not talking about their own trades in any way at all, I tend to become suspicious. Or as Scott might say, my Bullshit Antenna perks up. :)

  • Darkthirty

    I always make people happy……….when I leave

  • SpeedSkt1

    Ok. Thanks. I don’t see pricing for it. How much does it cost? Additionally, I am interested in potentially using this indicator in conjunction with a short term emini S&P trending system I trade currently. Could I obtain the dates of previous trend day alerts going back a to September 2014?

  • Time Bandit

    Any day that ends up net positive is a good day especially after the Rollercoaster Ride that the markets gave us. :)

  • kim

    ah Eastwood westerns…remember watching Good, bad and the ugly quite a while ago, in the middle i caught myself thinking, damn this is so good and I hope it will last forever. Will check out $HGX, thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The gold sub goes for $39 recurring. Seriously – you can’t find that? Which means that I totally failed with the site redesign :-(

    It’s in the services page – right above in the menu bar. Plus I added the three blocks right next to the logo. I was hoping those would represent good entries for anyone new to the blog.

    Am i missing something? Does one really have to plaster it all on the front page?

    Anyway, Speedskt – if all fails go

    here: http://evilspeculator.com/amember/signup.php

  • SpeedSkt1

    It doesn’t say under the description of what you get for Gold that the Trend Alert is included as part of that. That’s where the confusion came.

    Do you have information on past signals going back to Sept 2014? I want to backtest the trend days with my system? Can I obtain that by subscribing?

  • Kishore Kumar

    You can read Scott’s old postings all the time at the following link. They need to be read again and again.

    https://disqus.com/by/disqus_0BQ8B6N0tE/

    It is not how much reading we go through that matters, but, more
    importantly, how much of it goes through us, i.e. assimilation,
    internalization etc. etc.. There is plenty there to make anyone a good
    trader, if fully absorbed and followed. We all have plenty to learn,
    always!

  • BKXtoZERO

    LOL

  • Round we go

    Yen looks like it wants to breakdown.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mental note to myself – loosen up trailing on NG next time….

  • Round we go

    Hedgie must have died. Biotech crushed today may get dead cat bounce again.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was looking hard at Nat Gas at 2. I guess leeches are on the outside. Would have been funny if I took it and posted at the same time as you.

  • TheRooster

    I had never realised that non-subs can access the message board!

    Seriously guys, $39 a month! I dont even trade Mole’s discretionary set-ups as I am rule based but I pay up every month so we don’t lose the site.

    The quality of posts and discussions here are worth alot more than $39 a month. I know someone who just paid $3k to learn how to draw trendlines and use RSI FFS!

  • TheRooster

    “I don’t want to believe. I want to know” – Carl Sagan

  • Round we go

    Thar she blows. Guess japan is printing.

  • Round we go

    tell me about it. uco is up 20% after my stop out.

  • Darkthirty

    wasn’t that SPECIAL?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I see it.

    also, Amazon misses? down AH 13%?, I’m *shocked* just shocked.

    http://www.truthdig.com/images/made/images/cartoonuploads/amazondrones_363_270.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    Hell of a run.

  • Darkthirty

    now lower than the ramp, don’t get any better than that

  • Darkthirty

    Who ever caught the leak was buying YM

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Darkthirty

    They still don’t get it…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    some day they will.
    mass sepuku for the leaders awaits.

    http://geekroniques.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/vlcsnap-2014-03-29-22h02m13s37.png

  • Darkthirty

    need all the banksters to join in….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Check this out guys – NYC is the hottest new ski resort: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRv7G7WpOoU

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I follow Casey. self made man, went from dish washer to short story film icon.
    Here’s another one he put together recently.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqlrru1V69E

  • Round we go

    Why arent you posting trades.

  • Round we go

    Dollar up more than eqiities. Huh.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    New Post

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ?? – what do you mean?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO

  • Round we go

    Just cracking yhe whip. On breakout day.