Better To Be Lucky

UPDATE 11:54am EDT: So, I got up this morning, turned on the Zero and waited for the opening at the sound of which my calls I still held on Friday got kicked straight into the groin. Remember, I had to head out early that afternoon and did not see the shenanigans that happened right before the close – there’s a good chance I would have dropped them right there.

Anyway, I knew right away that this was complete horsewash (keeping it PG-13 today since everyone has turned so sensitive) and that this was just a ruse to use the ‘swine flu epidemic’ as a justification to do a good ole’ stop sweep. So, I set a conditional stop at SPX 856 and went right back to bed.

Got up 20 minutes ago and looking at the ensuing tape I had to laugh out loud – while I was soundly asleep they dropped the tape all the way back to 856.05, with some pretty long candles I might add – smelling of one last sweep. Which was of course followed by some long candles to the upside – man, that was nasty!

So, today’s moral of the story is: It’s better to be lucky than to be good ;–)

UPDATE 12:09pm EDT: Okay rats – I’m going to grab breakfast real quick and then we’ll talk.

Here’s your channel du jour – let’s see if we breach that lower boundary by the time I’m back. BTW, as this is starting to look like a developing H&S I decided to cut my SPY calls here – only down a few bucks now compared with this morning.

UPDATE 1:18pm EDT: Just came back and it seems I got lucky yet again – dumped those calls near the top.

Gold has pulled back from its overnight highs which almost reached 920 (my line in the sand). So far so good – I’m very curious to see what’ll happen tomorrow, which is the expiration of the April contract.

A long time friend of mine (and first class trader) alerted me to Silver this morning – we got a bit of a descending triangle situation happening here. He suggested a nice bear put spread on SIN9 – unfortunately TOS doesn’t offer options on. We could play SLV or DBS but both ETFs have low volume and are run by coke sniffing and mentally unstable market makers. So, I’ll have to let this one pass – but I might have to funnel some funds into my old OX account for such rare occasions.

UPDATE 1:37pm EDT: In terms of the wave count I have to concede that we could swing either way at this point:

But let’s forget about the exact count for a second. Just look at the chart – what do you see? I tell you what I see – a shit load of overnight surprises followed by whipsaw and counter whips. Which is why I have mostly been staying out – the tape at this stage has become way too radical for my taste. So, my approach is to play it extremely small until we touch some very clear inflection points – e.g. 881-885 or 800.

The Dollar swung back above that diagonal support line which has been building over the past two months. So far so good but I don’t trust it yet – let’s see 87 and maybe we’ve got a wave to the upside going. It’s good for my GLD puts however – although that drop today was rather gentle.

UPDATE 2:46pm EDT: Saweet – just did a nice little daytrade on the NQ – sold it back right at 1370.25 – would believe it? Now back in the plus for today – love it.

Sorry for posting something unrelated to trading – but this is fucking funny! LOL 🙂 I bet most of you SMS texting junior rat tweeters don’t even know what Morse code is….