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Blast From The Past
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Blast From The Past

by The MoleOctober 9, 2015

The old GoldGerb came out of hibernation yesterday to grace us with his presence. In his comment he linked to an old post of mine from late July 2011. Not sure why he remembers that one in particular – after all since August 3rd 2008 there have been exactly 3588 posts on this blog – plus one. And boy, have we come a long way since then! Some of you veteran rats are still around but the vast majority has long since washed out. That in itself should be a big lesson to us all. Since I launched this site I’ve worked my butt off every single day to keep us all in sync with the tape’s gyrations but no matter what you do, the sad truth is that some people simply aren’t destined to be traders. I wish it wasn’t so but it’s a zero sum game and in order for us to thrive we need those suckers to take the other side of our trades.

Anyway, Billabong quipped that my work back then sounds like it could have been written today, and after reading my own post again I would agree. A bit of Evil Speculator history if I may: About a year earlier, sometime mid 2010, I experienced a bit of an epiphany which resulted in a big shift in the approach taken here at Evil Speculator. All through 2009 I had clung to a generally bearish outlook which you can imagine was a pretty frustrating experience in the context of the first phase of a historic seven year bull market that would eventually propel us from 667 to over 2100. The ugly truth is that I had been wave wanking my way through 2007/2008 and had been doing extremely well in the process. As a matter of fact, my claim to fame back in those days was that I had predicted and traded the entire 2008 correction on the basis of my Elliott Wave counts. The place was hopping back in those days with several hundred comments per post being the norm. Basically I had created the second coming of the Slope and I was enjoying the attention as well as my five minutes of fame.

But of course it had all been illusion and all through 2009 I continued to rely on the same methods that had worked so well for me earlier. To my defense my own counts regularly beat those of Prechter and Hochberg. But that probably was mainly thanks to a predisposition to consider alternative scenarios (i.e. always have a plan B and then C) as opposed to some innate ability or prescience. And quite frankly the Zero regularly had been there since late 2008 to save my butt and those of my intrepid subs. But it all came to a point and one day I finally saw the light and promptly decided to abandon my crystal ball in favor of a minimalist technical approach that I still use to this day.

In any case – I thought some of you noobs may enjoy reading some of my earlier work. So here is my old post in all it gory. Enjoy:

Equities stared down the abyss this morning and then decided to take a step back as life may yet be worth living. So my condolences to all you perma-bears who yet again expected the end of the world as we know it. Please forgive my sarcastic tone but whenever ZeroHedge and its like switch into fifth gear and panic among retail traders hits a fever pitch, that is when I operate the best. Visions of samurai Mole mercilessly but calmly swinging his katana come to mind.

Look folks – emotions and mental masturbations – please leave all that to the losers. There are a ton of them, which is why their collective voices have a tendency to drown out any uttering of reason and reality. Trading is a zero sum occupation and every once in a while it’s time to for a trip to the slaughter house. Make sure you are not on board.

I yet have to understand what the big deal is. Yes, we are $14 Trillion in the hole – yes, we as a nation are screwed – and yes, most major banks across this blue marble we call home are fiscally defunct. The king is just not wearing any clothes – he’s streaking across campus! But shouldn’t that be clear by now? I mean, after years of kicking the can down the road, did it really have to come down to some artificial debt ceiling deadline for the markets to decide that being long equities may be a bad idea?

Give me a break!

Never ever forget what this is. It’s a finely honed game – one that is designed to separate you suckers from your hard earned coin. There are many participants: the Fed, the Wall Street power houses, the media pundits, the financial ‘analysts’, the rating agencies, the ‘economists’, the gurus, the wizards – it’s a bit like a cast of characters right out of Lord of the Rings! They all have their role to play and everyone feeds off each other. The house of card we have built is just that – an illusion that has a nasty habit of falling apart every few decades or so. Don’t you read history? Why would you expect anything else to happen this time around? The game is rigged and we all knew it before we decided to participate. So let’s treat it as such. When you go to play in Vegas – you know exactly what you’re in for. You can bitch and complain when you lose your last penny but they’ll kick your sorry ass on the street all the same.

So, if you’re looking toward the financial markets to reflect any sense of reality, please don’t kid yourself. What’s happening out there in the streets and what’s happening in the tape are two completely different pair of shoes. Once you understand that lesson and free your mind you will find yourself mentally liberated and able to finally see things for what they really are. The rules of physics and mathematics can be discussed and debated until the end of time but all the while they remain immutable, no matter what you or I may believe or not. Throw a rock up in the air and watch it fall back down every single time – no matter how much you hope it just once may not.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Love that phrase, mental masturbation. Thanks for the good post

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Exited my shorts for a 40 point loss on nq. The ES crossed over my threshold. Eh, still in the green of 150 NQ handles in the last two weeks. I’m out for now. Happy trading all.

  • germatrix

    Stopped out of my short yesterday, trade taken based on 15
    min time frame.

    Thank you Mole & Scott – I am still a baby at trading.
    Been doing it for 15 years, and have only been learning for 3 J

    Sounds crazy – but most actually follow others in the beginning.
    This might be due to inexperience, lack of confidence, but what I found is –
    lack of a system you are comfortable with. Do not think – know!!

    Some I loose, some I win – but my system is what governs. If
    I get emotional, I place a system limit based on risk/reward and go and watch a
    favorite Sci-Fi…. Watched Starship Troopers last night 😉

    Lots of ramble – only point I would like to make – listen to
    Scott’s advice from yesterday!!!

    Hope all have a fruitful shift on the market today.

  • Skynard

    Crude in a W3 down here, catching a ride. /NG getting it’s game back on and still short.

  • tradingmom

    I <3 Starship Troopers. We can ill afford another Klendathu.

  • germatrix

    Oh yes – I am a massive paul verhoeven fan :
    Starship Troopers – RoboCop – Total Recall – Classics !!!

  • BobbyLow

    Once again EW does it’s thing. A few days ago we were in a 4 and it looks like that wasn’t it so now it’s in a 3 down?

    Come on mannnnnn!

  • Scott Phillips

    In what universe is that a wave 3? What are you smoking?

    http://snag.gy/Iwi3i.jpg

  • saltwaterdog

    Maybe a sub-minuette blah blah blah… without a timeframe EW labels are useless

  • saltwaterdog

    Short NG?

  • Scott Phillips

    You posted a few days ago you were long NG and averaged on the way down.

  • Skynard

    Still am, short the market

  • Scott Phillips

    If I’m being truly honest I could only consider myself a legitimate pro for under two years.

  • Skynard

    Never get in the weeds, it is a simple count.

  • tradingmom

    I’m an only child and my parents are … unusual. When I was a kid, my father always said that if he could be anything, he would want to be 1) shortstop for the Mets, 2) Chairman of GM, and 3) Captain of the Starship Enterprise. He’s blind in one eye and completely uncoordinated, so professional sports were completely out of the question. He had a very successful career, eventually becoming chairman of a publicly traded company for a short while, and the fact that GM took the gov’t bailout and screwed its bondholders in favor of a sweet deal w/ Warren Buffett pissed him off so much that he won’t buy any GM cars, so I’m pretty sure he doesn’t care too much about #2 anymore. And as a result of #3, my youth was filled to the brim with sci-fi — which my mother completely hates! So I was his companion to all sorts of great sci-fi flicks as a kid. We’ll see if it catches on w/ the next generation — my 12 year old daughter just took a whole stack of Larry Niven books out of the library the other day.

  • Scott Phillips

    ?? Short es?

  • Skynard

    Yep

  • Scott Phillips

    Do share! 60m and daily are heading steadily up, 5 mins is choppy and not impulsive in any way shape or form.

    I’m genuinely curious about how (or which timeframe) you pull a wave 3 down out of a market which has been up 29 out of the last 36 hours 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    Both Mole and I are big sci-fi readers as well!

  • Scott Phillips

    Elliot wave is a fraudulent theory with no predictive value. Period. End of story.

    The parts of wave theory that are valid (and there are good things about it) are linked together with the bullshit parts to come to the most implausible conclusions, that do not withstand scientific analysis.

    If you torture the count long enough it will tell you what you want to hear 😉

  • tradingmom

    I was in a book store a couple of years ago …there were these two 20 something guys standing in the sci-fi section. One was trying to persuade the other to read Lord Foul’s Bane…which I guess is really more fantasy than sci-fi. They seemed totally horrified when this 40 year old woman (me) interrupted them to say that I’d read all the Thomas Covenant books when I was 13 and loved them.

  • germatrix

    Brilliant !!! My kids (16, 14 and 12) are reading The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, and Dune – where did all the oldies go to? Sad to see people missing out on the classics – thanks for sharing !!!

  • Skynard

    Short time frame, 5 min daily. When sharp impulses in either direction are made. In definition it tells a story.

  • germatrix

    LOL!!!!

  • RoastBeeph

    Sounds like an awesome upbringing. I’m your typical sci-fi, comic book reading nerd as well.

  • germatrix

    Great minds – I mean culture alike 😉

  • tradingmom

    I would say that the only ideas from EW that I’ve found to have value are so broad that I’m not sure they really have anything to do w/ EW at all…but I guess I encountered these ideas there first so I associate them w/ EW. Anyway — 1) the idea of “impulsive” moves happening in the direction of the trend and “corrective” moves being counter-trend, and 2) the idea that any move, no matter the size, is entitled to a retracement.

  • tradingmom

    I had coffee this morning. Can you tell? I’ll shut up now.

  • germatrix

    I had a good week, and my trade last night was a lottery.
    I see no clear direction today, and no need to take risk. Today I will be an observer.
    Next week is another week.

    Do not ever force a trade I believe

  • Scott Phillips

    That is definitely a useful idea. There are a few others – after a big strong move a choppy move is most likely (wave 4) as latecomers mix with profit takers.

    However, the conclusion that somehow this gives you a ticket to the future, is patently ridiculous.

  • Scott Phillips

    I guess it could be interpreted that way :)

  • Skynard

    Good way of thinking.

  • Skynard

    On the move, it clearly is impulsive.

  • Bill

    Have them read Robert Heinlein for some real good old school scifi.

  • germatrix

    Thanks Bill, my boys have – I actually made them read Starship Troopers prior to watching it.
    Brilliant author – way ahead of his time!!!

  • Skynard

    Crude 50 backtest

  • RoastBeeph

    Skynard, you mentioned that you manage someone else’s money. If you don’t mind me asking, do you manage just the one person’s account or do you manage multiple people’s accounts?

    I manage my father’s account but manage it strictly using long term value investing.

  • germatrix

    if you are a pro, you are not a student. Only students have the aptitude to learn. Pro’s normally think they are past education. I value your input as experience from a student still in training… :-)

  • Skynard

    Currently 4 acounts including my own.

  • RoastBeeph

    Interesting, thanks.

  • Ronebadger

    I use EW to look back 20-50 years…it’s all becomes clear then…

  • Ronebadger

    do you two get to “grok in fullness” much? on this board maybe…

  • BobbyLow

    I agree with the Impulsive/Corrective concept. However, it’s only clear on the Left side of the chart after completion. The Right side of the chart is a Blank Canvas and as it get’s painted is where a certain amount of fitting is involved. I thought this was an X and it didn’t happen so it was a Y. This way interpertation is always correct because even when previous assumptions of what was supposed to happen are wrong you can name the next move whatever it needs to be after the fact. I also “loved” the old 1,2,1,2,1,2, x,y’s or whatever they were called when nothing else would explain price action.

    They don’t call it a “Theory” for nothing. :)

  • germatrix

    I do not want to knock EWT, but I once went to see a gypsy.
    She told me that I was going to die.
    I asked when, she gave me 7 different paths as answers.

    For me EWT is the same. Always allot of guessing until a technical is broken, i.e
    support/resistance…..

  • Skynard

    Most idexes around the world are at strong res and therefore believe we are in a Massive move down now. Most will miss it:)

  • tradingmom

    20 week EMA is at spx 2020 — backtest complete.

  • Skynard

    Go Bitch!!!! Hehehe

  • RoastBeeph

    Another good valid ZL arrow signal this morning. :) And ZL actually shows a little bearishness now, not much, but a little.

  • ridingwaves

    that’s what my wife tells me….EW intercourse is all about the 5th wave

  • Skynard

    It is very useful to me as a tool.

  • germatrix

    That explains it – I thought the 3rd wave was the longest

  • RoastBeeph

    So, what are your guys/gals thoughts on the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal triggered yesterday? Average gain of +24.6% on past signals in the 11 month periods after. Do you guys buy into the idea of fancy indicators like this or do you only go by price action?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying conservative short here. We shall see.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • tradingmom

    Scott posted an answer to my question about this yesterday. “Marty Zweig is one of the legends of the industry from the 1970’s. Most of the fundamentally type TA from back then doesn’t work now, because the fed rate was above 10%. Different game.”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero signal flatlined just now – should be an interesting session…

    .

  • RoastBeeph

    Interesting, probably true. Thanks.

  • Skynard

    Out of metals

  • germatrix

    That explains it – I thought the 3rd wave was the longest, I will chat to the wife about that. Thank for the advise

  • BobbyLow

    OK that’s cool. :) So maybe if you said what time frame you were on and that it was for an intra-day trade this would make sense. I believe you wouldn’t be taking on a longer term swing based on a 5 minute chart would you?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    The trend is your friend until the end

  • BKXtoZERO

    no I think it’s that a 3rd can’t be the shortest so that means you are not the worst on your block……….

  • germatrix

    The MOLE, Ladies and Gents, thank you for allowing me to spam you today.
    I am out and going for some fun with the family. No Rugby this weekend for an emotional South African 😉

    I wish I could reiterate the point made daily by the Mole and the Scott – Stick to your plan!!!

    I lost a bundle prior to living that mindset – psychology is the greatest barrier you will ever face in this game

  • Skynard

    Something which we have taken notice to and can help to determine weather we are in distribution or accumulation.When a sequence of lower highs/lows develop we are in distribution and vice vera for accumulation. Everything we learn takes time and is a good thing to watch.

  • Skynard

    Damn, good timing:)

  • germatrix

    Or could be classified as Support/Resistance?

  • AcoBrasil

    Makes sense since everyone has their eye on the 2020 SPX resistance and $50 oil.
    AAPL, which has been pretty flat during the last two weeks is up 2% today which is contributing to the inertia.

  • Skynard

    No, market movers will buy and sell but have to do so slowly and therefore it is interpreted this pay. It is truely amzing how s millions of shares are bought over time.

  • Skynard

    For example: Stop run was made just now with a recent spike. Distribution would be price lower from here without a new high. It is also a 5 wave move now.

  • germatrix

    Ok so do you then use institutional volume in conjunction to your EWT?

  • Skynard

    Sometimes, volume is an excellent indicator

  • germatrix

    Cool – however you are not disclosing 😉
    Skynard – I am challenging cause I know several newbees are trolling sites like these.
    My personal believe is if you cannot justify/quantify your trade – or do not wish others to understand your system. Then DO NOT post entries. You are placing uneducated people at RISK!!!

    Please reconsider. I do not have any rights on this forum, but merely a plea to consider those who know less

  • Skynard

    Crude bulls in trouble here, here comes the meat of the move.

  • Skynard

    very simple, if you do not have a system then you should not be trading. Learned that the hard way myself, sometimes it takes that very thing for any newbies to learn. Many lessons are learned the hard way unfortunately.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s not what he’s saying Sky. I don’t know what’s happened to you over the past couple of weeks but it appears that you went from being a fast and very good reversal type trader to an all knowing market forcaster.

    And he is absoutely correct about the lack of clearity with your posted trades. When you say I’m short or long without a time frame and or type of trade it is, you’re information is absolutely fucking worthless.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t go there – just don’t….

  • AcoBrasil

    Following such a strong move, I don’t anticipate crude will do a spike reversal this time around. If another leg down in in the works, I would anticipate the SPX to hit the upper Bollinger and the 100-day SMA (around 2042) before rolling over.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Volume in itself is a horrible indicator – it has no predictive/directional quality and it fails more often than not as a contrarian signal. I see this crap being repeated over and over without anyone ever able to make it work.

  • BobbyLow

    Again on what time frame? I’ve been long via Daily since 8/27 and my stops have been moved from 39.33 to 41.53 to 43.91 to currently at 46.16 so for me, Crude Bulls are not in trouble until we get a closing price under 46.16.

  • Skynard

    Anything is possible. That would be the next res level, voting for the bears right now.

  • Skynard

    If you do not have a chart in front of you why the fuck would you be trading?

  • germatrix

    Thank you – agreed. The only volume I normally love is when listening to Zed Leppelin or like wise
    Else I have the stupid Xbox/PS4 in my ears from the teens 😉

  • modanny1

    Wish I had found this site back then! It took me till around 2013. Screw zerohedge. Thanks mole!

  • BobbyLow

    Look I’m not going to get into an extended pissing contest with you. It is apparent to me that you just have not and will not ever get what some people are trying to tell you.

    All I see is noise and at this point if Disqus had an Ignore Feature, I would use it.

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    lol

  • evilasevildoes

    spy 203.50 my res

    2019 es

  • Skynard

    On a 5 min chart it is the best indicator for me to use. It tells me when the movers get in and out of a possition.

  • evilasevildoes

    check out pnf projections on Dow

  • Skynard

    Absolutely, swings and reversals.

  • germatrix

    Cool – Skynard, can you perhaps share your entry justification/criteria from 3 days ago + yesterday on full short?
    Might help some people to understand better your entry/exit criteria?

    There is no maliciousness intended, however clarity is lacking.

    Are you willing to share P&L and entry/exit rationale?

    saying “full short” or “all in long” does not educate anyone…

    I have learned as stated earlier to Scott – be a student, and learn. You can only learn from a forum by not being transparent.

  • ridingwaves

    look at 5 day chart of SGY..yum yum

    http://s24.postimg.org/hxw0gmpol/sgy_double.jpg

  • evilasevildoes

    they might gun them into close careful….to get everyone IN

  • Skynard

    Same as below, that would be a 3 of 3 without the potatoes:)

  • RoastBeeph

    Wouldn’t you like to see the trading records for the zerohedge guys over the past six years? That is, if they actually even trade.

  • RoastBeeph

    If a person comes here and just takes whatever trades he/she sees, they are going to do the same thing at other sites if not this one. The internet is full of people calling trades.

  • evilasevildoes

    Mole your zero lite a bute

  • RoastBeeph

    There appears to be a missing tick (or break) on the ZL ES 5 min. Does that signify anything or is that just a data feed screwup?

  • RoastBeeph

    I’ve noticed bears switching to bull the past two days at many of the blogs. It does seem like the market changes trends once they have people caught unaware.

  • BobbyLow

    Sweet. Did you get that one? If I was still playing individual stocks (and I’m not) it would have been a long for me by the COB on Monday at $6.55 now at $8.94 and a 36% Return in 3 Days. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. LOL

  • RoastBeeph

    ZL looking bearish for the first time in a week. I see a trending down ZL. If ES breaks below 2000 it might be off to the races.

  • Skynard

    Yes, we got one as well on the 5 imn.

  • Skynard

    Mentioned that yesterday. Always stay ahead of the game:)

  • Skynard

    Lol

  • Skynard

    If we are in a move which I think we are, it should not give many the opportunity to get short. After SPX 2K watch out:)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Reshorted NQ @ 4350

  • germatrix

    Ok – thanks for that clarification – I was hoping for a site that provided more than the normal gambling….
    Seems that support from your end towards the fine line of gambling is the appropriate – damm – ok then moving to then to the next site not promoting “shoot from the hip” trading

  • Skynard

    If you pull up a 5 min daily chart crude is currently printing a W4. Next move should get us to 49 level. Remember this is not long term for shit sake!

  • saltwaterdog

    Could be but also could be a 1-2-i-ii after ABC down… both sides covered

  • Skynard

    Down we go:)

  • tradingmom

    its just a glitch in the ZL — no significance

  • RoastBeeph

    I think most trades called out here are made with some reasoning behind them. I think this blog is better at that than most that I have seen.

  • evilasevildoes

    not yet….

  • RoastBeeph

    ZL is still only at -0.200 but it is trending down. Let’s see if it breaks below ES 2000, could be 1980 after that from what I see.

  • germatrix

    Thanks – “I think” for me is the danger

  • Skynard

    Watch SPX 2K, That is institutional.

  • evilasevildoes

    up to 2003.91 then maybe back down to 1987.50….time and price anniversaries for da boyz

  • evilasevildoes

    did you mean crude?

  • Skynard

    Most difficult thing I have ever done in my entire life.

  • germatrix

    on the 4 hour – based according to MY system I would trade this – only once 4 hour concludes.
    Can I recommend to anyone else? nope this is my risk and yours will be different….

    Have a great eve all – If I would have traded this – stop 2025 – Take profit 1990
    So as you can see not a great risk/reward trade.

    This is by no means a trading recommendation – this is purely to show what I would have done if I took a trade at this point

    Have a marvelous weekend…

    BTW when is Ant-Man out of NetFlix’s???

  • RoastBeeph

    Ant-Man is a great movie. :) Thanks for the trade idea.

  • tradingmom

    There was a nice little divergence on the ZL at the lows of this most recent move.

  • evilasevildoes

    if they cant kill the export of crude and nat gas expect to se eit jump and save the banks

    : if it doesnt pass then banks can finance pipelines across the asia..not sure how its worded but you get my gist

  • Skynard

    It looks like an ABC move up to complete 4. What comes after that?:)

  • evilasevildoes

    crude at 8/8 Murrey on a 1 minute,,,,how convenient

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Whats the ES equivilant, about -10 of SPX?

  • saltwaterdog

    What price is your w1 low which would invalidate your count if broken?

  • germatrix

    Please do not take the idea – risk/reward on this one is crappy… Rather opt for a beer, and only view the tape( as the mole calls it) 😉

  • Skynard

    Do not get in the weeds and try to keep it simple. Stops were just run and this should be the 4th. Down now and looking for a break of 49. That will be W1 with 5 moves down..

  • saltwaterdog

    This is what everyone here is asking/saying… they aren’t deliberating wave counts, but you and I could be counting waves on totally different timeframes or degrees, yes? So knowing what degree your seeing a w4 corrective would be helpful. Scott’s reaction (other than to EW In general) about your call that we are in a w3 down is because no shot there is a 3 down on the daily chart, so you’re obviously seeing it on another tframe that suits you.

  • RoastBeeph

    I’m not, have my own trades (currently short one NQ) but appreciate the idea and chart. :)

  • evilasevildoes

    Rig count …..some can drill 8 at a time

  • Skynard

    8.25 pts

  • Skynard

    Ok, agree

  • Skynard

    /ES 1990 and SPX 2K are the bulls line of defense.

  • RoastBeeph

    Definitely resistance at ES 2000 but looks like it might break through soon.

  • Bill
  • Skynard

    No support at 2K /ES

  • RoastBeeph

    ES touched 2K twice in overnight markets on 5min but do you not consider overnight market price action? Plus 2k is a significant round number.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    thanks

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX

    Yeah I miss the GoldGerb.. didn’t realize he hadn’t been around in a while.

    And yeah I remember when that EW horsesh* became popular.. gave me a headache. Wave 3, count 1, second cycle.. omg enough already.

  • germatrix

    Ladies/Gents, I have had some requests for follow tags.
    This is not my site/domain – This is the domain of the meanest Rat of all = the Mole, and thus ethically I cannot accept your follow requests.
    I intruded based on some trading statements made without context/justification.

    To this regard if I miss led in my intentions I apologize. My sole purpose was to elude to the fact that if you have no system and concrete methodology = DO NOT OPEN A TRADE

    I thank you for your patients and time

  • BobbyLow

    An almost sure fire way for me to take on a losing trade is to jump the gun and enter a trade prior to a candle completing regardless of the time frame.

    I also never want to reccomend a trade because I don’t want any responsibilty for it regardless whether it is deserved or not. Most of my faster Forex trades that are straight scalps and are OCO (One cancels the other). These trades are kind of Binary in that they are either very close (-Shrinkage) to a 1 R win by hitting my target or they are a 1 R Loss by hitting my stop. The only time my losses are less than 1 R is if the original trade changes direction according to my lens, I’m awake to make a change, and price hasn’t hit my full stop yet. Otherwise it’s set em and forget em.

    Right now, I’m doing this using Hourly Charts and only take on new trades from 9 AM to 1 PM in real time based on US Eastern Standard Time. So I tailored this system to my personality and time frame and would never expect anyone else to want to do exactly what I do. My current longer term swing play in Crude Oil is based on a Daily Chart.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My non system in the past has included volume among other things like RSI but the few posts that I’ve made here, kind folks point things out and I realize that even things I thought I knew, I don’t know enough about. I copied Scotts recs for trading books and not like I expect to pull some workable system for me out of any book, I at least realize I better start learning more about all aspects of TA even bollingers, what to read out of them. Ivan commented on one of my statements regarding contracting bollingers. He said look and you may be surprised. I started looking and at least with the time I’ve had thus far, realized I could find no edge where I thought there was one. Anyway, easier to at least get on the basics better then bug the shit out of you guys.

  • germatrix

    Thank you Sir,
    I think our intentions are the same.

    My biggest concern is towards trading statements without justification. I tried to add more, but I am still elusive.
    Form what I have noticed is that this sites intention is to provide assistance and guidance and not blind recommendations.

    I am stepping on several toes at this point, but my only intent is to portray the Mole’s site vision – well unless I miss understand the evilspeculator site?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mildly bearish, a -0.5 signal is really nothing but a small correction. But yes it’s the first tepid sign of weakness in a while.

  • captainboom

    Ringworld is great! An important part of my formative years, as was Harry Harrison, the inspiration for none other than Evil Speculator.

  • Skynard

    Crude 20 day hourly now, target 48 with a bounce at 49.

  • BobbyLow

    “Form what I have noticed is that this sites intention is to provide assistance and guidance and not blind recommendations.”

    I can’t speak for Mole on this matter but I believe that what you said is absolutely correct. This kind of stuff has only become a real issue over the past couple of weeks. I don’t think you have stepped on anybody’s toes at all. You asked honest questions and IMO, were correct to do so.

    Mole is aware of this issue and wrote an entire post about it. So I’m going to “try” to be patient and just let this situation take care of itself. I believe it will. :)

  • BobbyLow

    I only have one person to blame and that is me but all this talk of EW brings on a visual of a bleeding hemmorroid. Just thinking about the infamous Pee 3 that never happened gives me the chills. My gullable greed allowed me to jump on board P3 and it almost put me out of business forever. I’m still digging myself out.

  • Ronebadger
  • Skynard

    Hourly now, that div should get us to support. Very pronounced.

  • Ronebadger
  • Skynard

    Would not attempt to get long here at all(Period) We are officially in bear season:)

  • mugabe

    do you know about this family of ETFs?

    http://www.cambriafunds.com/etfs.aspx

  • Skynard

    Never rely on intermediate support.

  • Skynard

    Do the hunting, never be the hunted:) Notice all the spikes in crude, watch as they are getting sold off.

  • BobbyLow

    Funny how different lenses perceive things. I’m seeing Crude come back in a little to ride on top of the Upper 20 day Simple BB.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Could you please share your criteria for going short? The trend on daily and 30 minute still appears to be up. If you are guessing the top, how do you do it?

  • evilasevildoes

    2009.77 next target guess its fry daze

  • evilasevildoes

    hmmm….bought eod crude now flat watching aapl goose nq and es looks like it wants 2011

  • BKXtoZERO

    You have lots of company along with me….

  • germatrix

    Care to share your short avg now on ES?

  • germatrix

    BTW Hotel Transylvania 2 is ok not great

  • Skynard

    Sure, it is 1982. No change from yesterday.

  • germatrix

    Challenge to Skynard – I show you mine – you show me yours

    We compare again Monday pre US open

  • evilasevildoes

    if they close ES at 2007.11 that means rereun of 2007-2008 scennario…if you are a WD Gann fan

  • germatrix

    You can close at any point, but have to post results at pre market open. You up for the challenge?
    Trade reason needs to be provided at the same time

  • germatrix

    some what unfair without giving the pic upfront 😉

  • germatrix

    Skynard – I am about to be stopped out 😉
    No stress from my end as it is within my plan.

    What was your entry? mine was divergence and some internal magic indicators – big thing is my plan – what is yours?

  • hellbent

    In case anyone is thinking of trying NT8 live… These two charts show exactly the same fill from last night. The dark one is NT8.

    Historical data is continually getting minced – OK, that is just a bug, to be expected. But… The effing thing is firing off orders well away from market price and seems oblivious to the fact that there a TWO axis on a chart.

    NT8: Kamakaze :) Don’t do it…… yet.

  • germatrix

    You did see my challenge ??
    throwing a bone here on my direction for mon

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Covered NQ short for breakeven. There was nothing outlandishly bearish about today’s tape or ZL indications. Therefore Im not holding anything over the weekend.

  • germatrix

    To All Other – please this is not a recommendation !! You want to get involved in this, it would be at your own apparel

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    eeekkk… here comes Scotty !

  • hellbent

    Spelling bee anyone?

  • mugabe

    I’m not changing my clothes

  • RoastBeeph

    Which means we crash over the weekend? 😛

  • germatrix

    seriously? wow – hope you have a relaxing weekend.

  • germatrix

    Is this an analysis of the market, or a software glitch/crunch observation?

  • hellbent

    It’s a warning highlighting a glitch. I was very keen to get up to speed with NT8 because NT7 gives me the shits.

  • germatrix

    cool – understood.
    Man if it gives you the shits – then shift it along I say :-)

  • germatrix

    Well if there is a bachelors I reckon we can crash that?

  • BobbyLow

    Where are you from Germatrix?

  • germatrix

    Please let me know where they are moving too – need to avoid that area 😉

  • germatrix

    My good man – I am from the depth’s of Africa.
    I life in a holiday town in Hartebeespoortdam.

    Yourself where are you from?

  • germatrix

    Part of the 60’s club – check with the Mole he should have my contact details – if not let me know

  • BobbyLow

    Wow! At one time we had 13 different countries represented here at ES and now it’s 14. I think you are the first person from Africa. I just checked and it’s a little after 11 PM there? If so, it’s not too bad of a time difference between you and NYSE Hours.

    I live in the Southeast of the US in North Carolina.

    It’s time for me to call it a week. Have a great weekend. :)

  • germatrix

    If you are not sure – then you should not be in it – great call – great discipline!!!!!

  • germatrix

    cool – I always love being part of change for the better. So thanks – as a software engineer I hope I can help.
    Purely cause engineers have no feelings and thus attributes to systems :-)

    from a African perspective – sorry about the Rugby match against the USA

  • evilasevildoes

    do thongs count?

  • evilasevildoes

    was boring

  • evilasevildoes

    i hoped on it three times today ,,,,,in and out…..its got a lil rhythm to it that’s for sure

  • evilasevildoes

    lol i remember all that…………..only the three wave…..an reading zero hedge lol

  • evilasevildoes

    I undestand it….I saw it ….I acted….by going with the idea that oi land interest rates would enrich da boyz running the table

    plus who wants to be a slave to Prechtor whose timing on CNBC was mighty suspicious to me…

  • evilasevildoes

    1980 after we pierce that…..but it’s fry day

  • evilasevildoes

    8.26 is an interesting fractal inside the market

  • evilasevildoes

    lol

  • evilasevildoes

    I like 4 minute…. fractal in time correlated to biggies

  • evilasevildoes

    best trade yesterday went short the TF ad traded gold by mistake lol 1143….worked out…thanx lil fat fingah

  • evilasevildoes

    stealth mode

  • evilasevildoes

    Aaples bonds are best over ZB …..however great ZB trade today

  • evilasevildoes

    got the hedgies to go long

  • amokta

    Ok, are we still waiting for Godot, or is P3 finally here? :-)

  • Scott Phillips

    NT7 is the bane of my life, constantly shits me to tears

  • Scott Phillips

    Volume USED to have validity, at some time before I started trading. It doesn’t mean shit anymore.

  • Scott Phillips

    BKX, a large part of the body of work we call “technical analysis” was drawn up before the internet, before computers to test things were common.

    A quick path to fame back in the day was to release an indicator. If Mole released the zero back in 1972 he’d be sitting next to Gartman on CNBC right now 😉

    At least 70% (and probably higher) of stuff we call technical analysis is complete BULLSHIT.

    Use only what you can verify, and do your best to avoid subjective methods as much as possible.

  • Scott Phillips

    Certainly true. I spoke to one of the legends of the trend following world over the last few days about giving him a million dollars or so to manage.

    His opinion is that without the free kick of the risk free rate they will never see the glory days of the 1970-2000 again.

    He is considering the idea that something systemic has changed, and that QE has raised correlations between markets to an unacceptable level for trend followers (something I have seen with Thor)

  • Scott Phillips

    As a descriptor of price action it works just fine.

    As a predictor of price action – not so much.

  • Scott Phillips

    Another thing which nobody has posted any evidence for, ever!

  • Scott Phillips

    Not so. I spend more time testing, learning , and working on my systems than ANYONE here.

    Humility is not falsely pretending to not know what I’m doing, or being in denial thinking I’m better than I am. Humility is seeing my skills for exactly what they are.

    A professional is someone:
    – Who has a system with an edge, thoroughly backtested
    – Who trades that system diligently, never missing trades except according to system criteria
    – Who keeps accurate records, and allocates time to do daily, weekly , and monthly reviews of his own and system performance
    – Who has a business plan to go with his trading plan, achieving his financial goals through money management
    – Who spends time consistently working on his personal psychology, never assuming that he has the psychological game down pat

    By those criteria I am a professional. Several others here are too

  • Scott Phillips

    And WHY can’t the 3rd wave be the shortest? Because the lost manuscript of some fuckin guy said so?

    What a load of horseshit. Price CAN and will do ANYTHING

  • Scott Phillips

    Indicators are fine if they are objectively tested with a large sample size.

    How many signals?

  • Scott Phillips

    Well the market has been up many days in a row. Does that sound like a one in 100 year downturn to you?

  • Scott Phillips

    It does one thing that no other software does – that is really really useful. Also, for automated trading for the home trader, it is the only realistic choice.

    Sadly the interface and reliability is terrible

  • Scott Phillips

    I hate Gann way more than I hate EW, which is substantial!

    Whereas EW is plausible enough to fool very smart people until you get down into the details, only a 4 year old could be fooled by Gann theory.

    Gann theory is for down syndrome traders, idiots and imbeciles.

  • Scott Phillips

    The fundamental idea underpinning the whole bullshit is…

    If the market suddenly does something unexpected the count was wrong.

    BUT

    The market does unexpected shit all the time. Yellen opens her fat mouth, the count was wrong. A plane flies into a building, the count was wrong. The BOJ announces it’s own QE – the count was wrong.

    Which do you think is more likely…

    a) The count was wrong
    b) The facts changed

    Obviously market facts change all the time. Obviously all markets are interconnected (bonds with currencies with equities with metals). Obviously exogenous macro shocks and events will affect price structure.

    So drawing one count on one chart in isolation is supposed to make a market predictable all the way out to YEARS in advance. Give me a fucking break! Markets are not predictable a few WEEKS in advance, let alone years!

  • Scott Phillips

    Me too. And Ivan wasn’t immune either

  • Scott Phillips

    The problem is you ALWAYS vote for the counter trend. 100% of the time you are biased towards the reversal.

    In my opinion using highly subjective methods like wave theory is even more dangerous when you have a pathological need to bet against the trend :-)

  • Scott Phillips

    I use bollingers, but they are just a visual aid, nothing more

  • Scott Phillips

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • TheRooster

    Hey Scott

    Why not TradeStation for automation as an alternative to Ninja?

  • Skynard

    Yes, double points:)

  • Skynard

    Standing up to my decision which was made, believe in myself and will win, my trading has inproved enormously:)